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View Full Version : Thoughts on Mercilus and My 2nd/3rd Round Draft Value Chart


LZ
04-27-2012, 04:47 PM
I put together a 1st round Texans Draft Board yesterday and I just finished a 2nd/3rd Round Draft Value Board for today.

I don't have any inside info on ANY of my predictions here, I'm simply using my draft ratings combined with my knowledge of what they look for and how they draft along with their team needs to try and create their board.

Here is the board:
http://bit.ly/Jy6xYD

I like the pick of Whitney Mercilus personally. He's not DeMarcus Ware and he has some holes in his game. I'm afraid people are going to be expecting too much from him too soon when, in reality, he's still very raw as a pass rusher.

What Mercilus does have though is a solid first step, a good change of direction, a good motor and moldable, coachable physical attributes. He will be able to come in and work into the rotation, but I'm not sure if he is ready to start just yet.

Playoffs
04-27-2012, 04:50 PM
Ahh, cool ... an updated draft value chart.

Thanks, Lance, you've done some good work on this draft! :clap:

Vinny
04-27-2012, 04:53 PM
I put together a 1st round Texans Draft Board yesterday and I just finished a 2nd/3rd Round Draft Value Board for today.

I don't have any inside info on ANY of my predictions here, I'm simply using my draft ratings combined with my knowledge of what they look for and how they draft along with their team needs to try and create their board.

Here is the board:
http://bit.ly/Jy6xYD

I like the pick of Whitney Mercilus personally. He's not DeMarcus Ware and he has some holes in his game. I'm afraid people are going to be expecting too much from him too soon when, in reality, he's still very raw as a pass rusher.

What Mercilus does have though is a solid first step, a good change of direction, a good motor and moldable, coachable physical attributes. He will be able to come in and work into the rotation, but I'm not sure if he is ready to start just yet.He has some nice inside moves and will give Wade another credible slashing rusher inside of Barwin or Reed when its third and long. I'd have to think they project him as an eventual starter since they picked him over other need areas. I think they have that luxury the Steelers usually have with their OLB's by bringing guys along slowly.

LZ
04-27-2012, 04:54 PM
He has some nice inside moves and will give Wade another credible slashing rusher inside of Barwin or Reed when its third and long. I'd have to think they project him as an eventual starter since they picked him over other need areas. I think they have that luxury the Steelers ususally have bringing guys along slowly.


I completely agree with you, Vinny.

HOU-TEX
04-27-2012, 04:58 PM
I'm not really expecting him to come in and start right away. I do expect him to contribute a lot on passing downs. I think he's quicker and has better pass rushing moves than Reed.

I'd assume Wade can figure out how to use all of them on the field together on 3rd downs. Having Smith and Watt move inside with Cushing, Barwin, Reed and Mercilus behind/beside them sounds truly appealing

TheIronDuke
04-27-2012, 04:58 PM
Thanks Lance, love the show BTW.

cj5776
04-27-2012, 05:01 PM
I could see Reed playing a little ILB to get all 3 on the field together, but Wade did say yesterday he wanted to draft an ILB

ChampionTexan
04-27-2012, 05:03 PM
I put together a 1st round Texans Draft Board yesterday and I just finished a 2nd/3rd Round Draft Value Board for today.

I don't have any inside info on ANY of my predictions here, I'm simply using my draft ratings combined with my knowledge of what they look for and how they draft along with their team needs to try and create their board.

Here is the board:
http://bit.ly/Jy6xYD

I like the pick of Whitney Mercilus personally. He's not DeMarcus Ware and he has some holes in his game. I'm afraid people are going to be expecting too much from him too soon when, in reality, he's still very raw as a pass rusher.

What Mercilus does have though is a solid first step, a good change of direction, a good motor and moldable, coachable physical attributes. He will be able to come in and work into the rotation, but I'm not sure if he is ready to start just yet.

LZ -

What are your thoughts on his NFL readiness compared to the way you viewed Brooks Reed one year ago?

Porky
04-27-2012, 05:07 PM
He has some nice inside moves and will give Wade another credible slashing rusher inside of Barwin or Reed when its third and long. I'd have to think they project him as an eventual starter since they picked him over other need areas. I think they have that luxury the Steelers usually have with their OLB's by bringing guys along slowly.

Great insight and analysis Vinny and Lance!

thunderkyss
04-27-2012, 05:32 PM
I put together a 1st round Texans Draft Board yesterday and I just finished a 2nd/3rd Round Draft Value Board for today.

I like the pick of Whitney Mercilus personally.



You've got Courtney Upshaw on your day 1 board (http://thesidelineview.com/columns/draft/texans-first-round-draft-value-chart) ahead of Mercilus. What do you think of the Texans passing on Upshaw to select Mercilus?

LZ
04-27-2012, 06:21 PM
Thanks Lance, love the show BTW.


I appreciate it.

badboy
04-27-2012, 06:52 PM
IIRC, Reed was not expected to start for a while and he did pretty good.

LZ
04-27-2012, 07:00 PM
LZ -

What are your thoughts on his NFL readiness compared to the way you viewed Brooks Reed one year ago?

I think Brooks was more NFL ready last year despite having him ranked 40th on my Top 100 last year. I had Mercilus at 20, but those ratings reflect overall upside. Mercilus is less experienced and less skilled as a pass rusher than Reed was coming out, but he's the better athlete and has a higher potential ceiling.

DocBar
04-27-2012, 09:31 PM
I think Brooks was more NFL ready last year despite having him ranked 40th on my Top 100 last year. I had Mercilus at 20, but those ratings reflect overall upside. Mercilus is less experienced and less skilled as a pass rusher than Reed was coming out, but he's the better athlete and has a higher potential ceiling.

Phillips was quoted as saying Mercilus is more polished than Reed as a passrusher at this stage, specifically using his hands better. What are your thoughts on that? I'm looking for a link to the quote and will post it when I find it.

beerlover
04-29-2012, 01:20 AM
16 sacks gets me stoked but what really pumps me up is that he tied the school single season sack record held by Simeon Rice. Rice was the 3rd overall pick in 96. He came into the combine weighing 259, 6040 & ran a 4.79 forty. Mercilus measured 261, 6035 & ran a 4.68 forty. Rice had 12.5 sacks as a rookie. It's going to be next to impossible tempering fans expectations in Wade Phillip defense with cast surrounding him.

drs23
04-29-2012, 02:25 AM
16 sacks gets me stoked but what really pumps me up is that he tied the school single season sack record held by Simeon Rice. Rice was the 3rd overall pick in 96. He came into the combine weighing 259, 6040 & ran a 4.79 forty. Mercilus measured 261, 6035 & ran a 4.68 forty. Rice had 12.5 sacks as a rookie. It's going to be next to impossible tempering fans expectations in Wade Phillip defense with cast surrounding him.

I knew about the Simeon Rice part, they discussed it briefly during the draft. Had no idea about his measurables though. Virtually identical. I'm liking Wade's new guy. Big time!

Wolf6151
04-29-2012, 02:49 AM
Here is the board:
http://bit.ly/Jy6xYD



Good list. You'll notice that Devier Posey and Keyshawn Martin are nowhere on the list, makes you wonder what the Texans were thinking and who in the Texans organization made those 2 picks.

rmartin65
04-29-2012, 08:10 AM
Good list. You'll notice that Devier Posey and Keyshawn Martin are nowhere on the list, makes you wonder what the Texans were thinking and who in the Texans organization made those 2 picks.

Nobody had Posey that high, but the Texans FO obviously saw something they liked. I am still trying to coming to grips with the pick, but I just cant do it yet. I hope I am wrong though.

As for Martin, he was drafted in the 4th, so he would not really be on that list. Martin is an exciting player because he seriously is a player that does what JJ was supposed to do.

LZ
04-29-2012, 01:46 PM
Phillips was quoted as saying Mercilus is more polished than Reed as a passrusher at this stage, specifically using his hands better. What are your thoughts on that? I'm looking for a link to the quote and will post it when I find it.


He might use his hands better, but Reed had an up and under move, an inside spin, a legit edge rush and could bull rush. If anyone wants to show me any games where Mercilus exhibited those pass rush moves, I am more than willing to come watch. Hand placement and usage may very well be in Mercilus' favor. Mercilus is the better overall prospect though.

The Medic01
04-29-2012, 01:49 PM
He might use his hands better, but Reed had an up and under move, an inside spin, a legit edge rush and could bull rush. If anyone wants to show me any games where Mercilus exhibited those pass rush moves, I am more than willing to come watch. Hand placement and usage may very well be in Mercilus' favor. Mercilus is the better overall prospect though.

No offense man I'm sure you know about this but I'll take Wade's word over yours. No offense just Wade is a genius who probably spent weeks on end studying pass rushers. He gets paid to do this kind of thing.

The Pencil Neck
04-29-2012, 02:00 PM
Good list. You'll notice that Devier Posey and Keyshawn Martin are nowhere on the list, makes you wonder what the Texans were thinking and who in the Texans organization made those 2 picks.

Someone with more information available on all the prospects and on the requirements of our offense than LZ? Positional coaches and scouts?

No offense to LZ and other guys who put together mocks (I do it myself when I have time) but every team has their own ranking for all these guys. They've got guys who devote all their time to figuring out who's going to fit in their system and who isn't. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong but LZ, WalterFootball, Ourlads, SI.com, etc., do not know more than the teams. And the teams didn't rank some of these guys as high as LZ did and they ranked some other guys higher.

Now's the time to sit back and see how these guys actually do in our system. We've got a nice posse of WRs now and hopefully, they develop.

LZ
04-29-2012, 02:42 PM
No offense man I'm sure you know about this but I'll take Wade's word over yours. No offense just Wade is a genius who probably spent weeks on end studying pass rushers. He gets paid to do this kind of thing.

I never saw a link to WAde's comments. Did you?

Allstar
04-29-2012, 02:49 PM
I never saw a link to WAde's comments. Did you?
Wade Phillips (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Quotes-Mercilus-and-Phillips-/cfc93317-17d9-452c-a97c-690d79b93b8a)
(on comparing Mercilus to J.J. Watt at this time last year from a developmental standpoint) “I look at him a little more developed than Brooks Reed was last year because Brooks didn’t use his hands as well. Brooks is a really good football player. I mean at the end of the year, he and J.J. were dominant players at their position. We’re excited about that, and of course, Connor Barwin is, too. I think this kid will fit right in. I think he’ll fit right in that group, and you won’t say, ‘Wow, we got two guys and him, and he’s got to come along.’ I think he’ll fit right in that group.”

LZ
04-29-2012, 02:56 PM
Someone with more information available on all the prospects and on the requirements of our offense than LZ? Positional coaches and scouts?

No offense to LZ and other guys who put together mocks (I do it myself when I have time) but every team has their own ranking for all these guys. They've got guys who devote all their time to figuring out who's going to fit in their system and who isn't. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong but LZ, WalterFootball, Ourlads, SI.com, etc., do not know more than the teams. And the teams didn't rank some of these guys as high as LZ did and they ranked some other guys higher.

Now's the time to sit back and see how these guys actually do in our system. We've got a nice posse of WRs now and hopefully, they develop.

This is so, so, so very true and I try to put that out there every chance I get. We watch games on television.... not all-22 tape. We don't have access to personal interviews nor to medical reports.

Anything that any "draftnik" or "tv personality" talks about is generally an opinion that isn't backed up by as much info. With that said, there are also plenty of times when evaluators for teams miss and a draft writer will be right on a player.

I need to see more on Posey. My grade was based 100% on the grade from another team as I hardly got to see him this year because of his suspension. Keyshawn Martin was a 4th for me as was Crick. However, no offense at all is taken by saying that teams have more access to info that any of us do. I will say that in the 4 games I watched on Mercilus, I thought he stayed engaged a little too long and didn't look like a polished pass rusher.

My draft ratings are based on watching games, going to Shrine practices, Sr. Bowl practices, the combine and speaking with teams. I will have a write-up of my thoughts on the Texans draft later tonight. Other than Posey that high, I was pretty happy.

ObsiWan
04-29-2012, 02:57 PM
I never saw a link to WAde's comments. Did you?

You're pulling our chain, right?
From HT.com.... the Wade/Whitney presser... LINK (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-3/Quotes-Whitney-Mercilus-Wade-Phillips-press-conference/05a74ce3-b5da-4f3e-ab71-15a24d3efb68)


LINK2 (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Quotes-Mercilus-and-Phillips-/cfc93317-17d9-452c-a97c-690d79b93b8a)
(on what jumped out to him about Mercilus while watching film) “Well, he’s a natural pass rusher. He’s got the skills that you look for in pass rushers. He’s a little different than Brooks Reedhttp://www.houstontexans.com/assets/nflimg/icon-article-link.gif (http://www.houstontexans.com/team/roster/brooks-reed/92e3e68c-0506-419b-a7af-e9182e81b4c1/) was last year. He’s more used to using his hands, and he’s got a speed rush, he’s got a power rush, and he’s got a quick inside move. It’s something certainly to develop, but he has some natural moves. I mean you don’t get 16 sacks in that league without having some natural gifts, and he has those.”

LZ
04-29-2012, 02:59 PM
Wade Phillips (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Quotes-Mercilus-and-Phillips-/cfc93317-17d9-452c-a97c-690d79b93b8a)

Yeah, not the pass rushing comment that had originally been portrayed. Developed as a football player as a 3 down player? I'm sure that is accurate. I was just addressing pass rushing skills. Reed is a pretty skilled pass rusher as far as moves are concerned, he's just a little stiff and doesn't have the 2nd and 3rd step quickness that he exhibits from 1st step. That is one of the reasons I felt like (and still feel like) the Texans needed to bring someone in to compete and eventually start at that position. Reed is probably a rotational pass rusher who is great depth.

CloakNNNdagger
04-29-2012, 03:01 PM
FWIW, from the Chronicle-Dale Robertson link (http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2012/04/texans-select-defensive-lineman-whitney-mercilus/)

But Mercilus, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips said, is more of a Brooks Reed – except he’s even further evolved that Reed was when the Texans chose the Arizona Wildcat with a second-round pick in 2011. And, like Reed, he’ll be converted to outside linebacker with the Phillips needing to replace Mario Williams, who was lost to Buffalo because of salary-cap problems.

“He’s more used to using his hands than Brooks was, and he’s a really good football player,” Phillips said. “By the end of the year, Brooks and J. J. were dominant players. This kid will fit right in with them.”

LZ
04-29-2012, 03:02 PM
You're pulling our chain, right?
From HT.com.... the Wade/Whitney presser... LINK (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-3/Quotes-Whitney-Mercilus-Wade-Phillips-press-conference/05a74ce3-b5da-4f3e-ab71-15a24d3efb68)


LINK2 (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/article-2/Quotes-Mercilus-and-Phillips-/cfc93317-17d9-452c-a97c-690d79b93b8a)

Not arguing any of that. He's got natural pass rushing ability... said the same thing on radio and on TV with Matt Musil. If he is as developed as people believe that Wade thinks he is, he will start. No need to keep a player who is more developed on the bench over Reed. My money is on Reed starting and Mercilus playing the Aldon Smith role this year.

ObsiWan
04-29-2012, 03:03 PM
Not arguing any of that. He's got natural pass rushing ability... said the same thing on radio and on TV with Matt Musil. If he is as developed as people believe that Wade thinks he is, he will start. No need to keep a player who is more developed on the bench over Reed. My money is on Reed starting and Mercilus playing the Aldon Smith role this year.

Hey, I, for one, am good with that mix. If we get Aldon Smith production out of him in a part-time role, he's a good pick.

Rey
04-29-2012, 03:07 PM
He might use his hands better, but Reed had an up and under move, an inside spin, a legit edge rush and could bull rush. If anyone wants to show me any games where Mercilus exhibited those pass rush moves, I am more than willing to come watch. Hand placement and usage may very well be in Mercilus' favor. Mercilus is the better overall prospect though.

I agree with all of this. I think merci has more high end potential, but I can't predict who will be the better player this upcoming season.

If reed has progressed a good amount it'd probably be him though. I don't think merci is going to be ready for a full time gig next year but you never know.

As far as just pass rushing goes I too give the edge to reed.

LZ
04-29-2012, 03:08 PM
Don't want to keep going back and forth as there is really no argument from me here. Just want to make sure I'm not being misrepresented. Here is what I said about Brooks Reed pre-draft (http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2011/04/nfl-draft-my-top-rated-players-at-every-defensive-position/):

Brooks Reed, Arizona

Reed had a terrific Senior Bowl and showed every pass -rushing move imaginable in one-on-one drills which is one of the reasons that I believe he will probably be over-drafted. Hell, I was just as excited as anyone until I actually watched tape of him. What I see in Reed is a slightly stiff pass rusher with a great motor and a very good inside spin move. What worries me is that Reed wasn’t as productive as you might expect from a pass rusher being considered in the first round. While I expect Reed to be a solid pro, I don’t think he’ll be the pass rusher that some expect – and he’s probably best suited to be a strong-side OLB in a 3-4 defense that already has an accomplished pass rusher on the weak-side. I don’t see Reed as a first round talent.

.... and what I said post-draft (http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2011/05/my-thoughts-on-every-texans-2011-draft-pick/):


Round 2 (pick 42) — Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
Z-Report Top 100: 41
Z-Report Says: Reed had a terrific Senior Bowl and showed every pass rushing move imaginable in the one-on-one drills which is one of the reasons I went scrambling to watch more games of him to find out why there wasn’t a bigger buzz surrounding him headed into the Senior Bowl practices. What I saw on tape was a player who plays hard, gets off the snap with a great first step and a guy who is relentless. Reed didn’t have the sack production I expected after watching him at the Senior Bowl and he is a little stiff in the hips which means he isn’t going to change direction as well as you would like. To me, Reed can be an effective complimentary rusher, but he’s not Clay Matthews. Reed should be able to come in right away and fight for a starting job and he can be part of an attacking unit that gets after the QB rather than a dominant individual pass rusher. The first two picks of this draft set the tone for Wade Phillips and the Texans as they are looking for guys who play hard each snap and whose primary focus is football. That is the word on both Watt and Reed from scouts in the business.

Lucky
04-29-2012, 03:24 PM
Reed is a pretty skilled pass rusher as far as moves are concerned, he's just a little stiff and doesn't have the 2nd and 3rd step quickness that he exhibits from 1st step. That is one of the reasons I felt like (and still feel like) the Texans needed to bring someone in to compete and eventually start at that position. Reed is probably a rotational pass rusher who is great depth.
You weren't high on Reed last year, pre-draft. I pretty much agreed with you, then. But, Reed has won me over with his performance last year. He had 6 sacks in 5 games, after Mario went down. After that, he ran into the dreaded rookie wall and went dormant for a few games. Reed rested in week 17, and came back strong in the playoffs with 3-1/2 sacks. Yes, he should be in a rotation. But, I think he's the real deal as a pass rusher.

Do you remember the defense that the Rams ran in the late 80's, where they would have 2 d-lineman down and 5 LBs standing? Not knowing who was going to blitz and who would drop back. I think the Texans could run something like that now, with Barwin, Reed, Cushing, and Mercilus. I see Wade cooking up something to get everyone of his pass rushers on the field.

dalemurphy
04-29-2012, 03:44 PM
This is so, so, so very true and I try to put that out there every chance I get. We watch games on television.... not all-22 tape. We don't have access to personal interviews nor to medical reports.

Anything that any "draftnik" or "tv personality" talks about is generally an opinion that isn't backed up by as much info. With that said, there are also plenty of times when evaluators for teams miss and a draft writer will be right on a player.

I need to see more on Posey. My grade was based 100% on the grade from another team as I hardly got to see him this year because of his suspension. Keyshawn Martin was a 4th for me as was Crick. However, no offense at all is taken by saying that teams have more access to info that any of us do. I will say that in the 4 games I watched on Mercilus, I thought he stayed engaged a little too long and didn't look like a polished pass rusher.

My draft ratings are based on watching games, going to Shrine practices, Sr. Bowl practices, the combine and speaking with teams. I will have a write-up of my thoughts on the Texans draft later tonight. Other than Posey that high, I was pretty happy.

This is very true and it is to your credit that you acknowledge this.

That being said:
Postmodern Americans don't lack information in making good decisions, we often lack the clarity of thought, discernment, and integrity to draw the correct conclusion. Access to an excess of information does not eliminate those issues, but it can magnify them. Teams with good decision-making models with people that divert the least from those models are the ones that get it right most of the time. All this is to say that having less information than others does not disqualify a person from the possibility he drew an educated and better conclusion.

I respect Lance's opinion a great deal, not because he is more informed that everyone else, but because I think he is consistent and his conclusions are sound. There is nothing wrong with someone like LZ critiquing the Texans' organization or any other organization regarding personnel decisions they made.

(I love this Texan draft. Partly, however, because I believe in Rick Smith, Kubiak, and their decision-making process. Still, I like to hear what others I respect, like LZ, think about it)

TexansFanatic
04-29-2012, 04:51 PM
Postmodern? Did you visit the museum recently or something? ;-)

ThruThick&Thin
04-29-2012, 05:19 PM
Hey guys, I was wondering if everyone else is as happy as I am about this draft? I mean we got 3 great hogs for the O-line...Mercilus the Merciless!!! We got Crick, who is a great gamble to get in there as a down lineman, whom excelled when he had someone a little more brilliant playing next to him. Well great news brotha cause we got that kinda situation going on.

I have been digging up reports from pre-draft about the two WR and the only knock on the guys are that they aren't that good at blocking. So that made me think, after the Texans had WR Randle right in their lap and traded away, that they feel these guys can do what they are looking to do and they could add a pick on the 3rd "1st-round" (day 3-4th rd).

Perhaps they are looking for more aggressive 4/1 and 5/0 sets, using Arian lined up wide? That way we can stress teams that have shallow depth at DB and protect Matt with quick release while we bring along our baby giants?

I am happy with what they've done and I look forward to supporting them. I swear to God the only person that my confidence is low in, is Kareem Jackson LOL .... #25 is always on the bad end of a great play. Hurts me deep :x

ThruThick&Thin
04-29-2012, 05:26 PM
I'm gonna even have to change my dang Avatar because Smith has been kicking butt the past 3 years in the draft. Maybe he fails at managing contracts, but he's looking great with Wade's advice on picks.

Let me just say that I'm not an Aggie and I don't have or care for their rivalry with UT and all that commercial rivalry crap. However.. I am extremely happy the Houston Texans have a K from Texas A&M... that is just awesome. I say that because you can hate those guys but they make damn good soldiers in their little subculture. We have a nice team composition ;-)

Lucky
04-29-2012, 05:29 PM
Postmodern? Did you visit the museum recently or something? ;-)
I thought he was referring to Todd McShay.

The Pencil Neck
04-29-2012, 06:02 PM
Hey guys, I was wondering if everyone else is as happy as I am about this draft?

You can read through the board and see that people are mostly pleased with it. A few people are extremely upset by the choices made at WR because we chose guys that weren't as highly ranked or touted as other guys that were out there.

I think the Texans got the guys they wanted. I think they didn't like Randle (or Sanu or Toon) as much as a lot of other people did.

And I don't think Wade is as worried about KJ as some people are.

rmartin65
04-29-2012, 06:07 PM
I think most everyone is happy. Heck, as much as I am hesitant about Posey, I still love our haul.

People are going to complain about things the team does, it is part of being a free-thinking fan. And we are allowed to- do you guys all only complain about things that you are getting paid to do, that you are experts in? I have a hard time believing that everyone who participates in the NSZ is an expert in every little topic that gets discussed there, yet nobody is told to stop complaining because they are not an expert. Opinions are allowed, and as long as they contribute to the discussion, a poster should not be discouraged from giving an opinion.

Just something to think about- nobody is saying we should fire Smith after this draft! That might be a first.

Playoffs
04-29-2012, 06:23 PM
My thought on every Texans 2012 draft pick (http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2012/04/my-thought-on-every-texans-2012-draft-pick/)

I’ll let you know right up front that I don’t do “draft grades.” It’s stupid. Seriously, how many of you were in school and had a teacher pass out tests to you with grades already in red marker on them before you even got to take the test? That never happened. Well, it probably happened at a few high schools and college where they were trying to keep guys eligible, but you know what I’m saying. I can’t “grade” this draft until I see these players play. Instead, I will give you my opinions on each player the Texans drafted...

read more: http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2012/04/my-thought-on-every-texans-2012-draft-pick/

Errant Hothy
04-29-2012, 06:31 PM
My thought on every Texans 2012 draft pick (http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2012/04/my-thought-on-every-texans-2012-draft-pick/)

I’ll let you know right up front that I don’t do “draft grades.” It’s stupid. Seriously, how many of you were in school and had a teacher pass out tests to you with grades already in red marker on them before you even got to take the test? That never happened. Well, it probably happened at a few high schools and college where they were trying to keep guys eligible, but you know what I’m saying. I can’t “grade” this draft until I see these players play. Instead, I will give you my opinions on each player the Texans drafted...

read more: http://blog.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2012/04/my-thought-on-every-texans-2012-draft-pick/

Think LZ imported the wrong text on this one:
Round 3 (pick 76) — Brandon Brooks, OG, Miami, OH
Z-Report Top 200: 79
Z-Report Says: After the draft was completed, I got a call from a coach who left a message on my phone talking about what a good draft he felt like the Texans had. One of the guys the coach singled out was Brandon Harris who he said was “one of the smartest players I’ve been around – incredible detail he used to describe their [Miami] defense but his dad was a coach which explains that”. Harris is a little bit smaller than you like and will likely fight for the slot CB position which has become an extremely important roster spot considering the scope of passing games these days. Harris’ tape wasn’t as good as teams expected this year which is why he fell a little bit, but he has a terrific football IQ and enough talent to come in and play right away.

beerlover
04-29-2012, 06:56 PM
LZ has a keen eye for talent evaluation. Time allowed it would be a thrill for me to spend a few hours talking scouting & the draft over a few cold ones :toast2:

Draft grades are like great beer fluid & fleeting always evolving. Sometimes it's nothing more than timing. Having a great scheme or receipe is just as important as the talent/ingrediants but all are important & work together in the final product.

Wade Phillips has made all the difference. Talk about eye for talent then ability to apply & achieve results. Love this guy.

Merciless is fluid & relentless. I think soccer greatly benefited his athletic skill set. His closing speed is elite & may be near the ideal size/speed ratio for 3-4 OLB? His abilty to close in space is something Mario never actualized (size inhibited?) but had a quick glimpse before injury w/Wade.

What I would like to know is there anyway Barwin, Reed, Cushing & Merciless could all be on the field @ the same time? If so, would this be situational 3-4 or operational from a base 4-3?

Playoffs
04-29-2012, 07:32 PM
Think LZ imported the wrong text on this one:
Fixed now:

Round 3 (pick 76) — Brandon Brooks, OG, Miami, OH
Z-Report Top 200: 79

Z-Report Says: Brandon Brooks first caught my eye at the East-West Shrine game where I saw him play with an exceptional amount of power. The thing that really confused me about this pick was that Brooks doesn’t fit the mold of the zone scheme guards we’ve seen in the past. At over 340 pounds, Brooks not only flashes outstanding power, but he also ran a sub 5.0 40 yard dash at the combine and was brought in for individual workouts by both the Texans and the Chiefs (Chiefs looking to run more zone). Obviously, the Texans saw what they needed to in terms of his lateral movement at the individual workout. If Brooks can get to the second level effectively, he has a great shot at competing for a starting job at RG right away. While he’ll be the underdog, Brooks has the type of power that will really give the Texans an advantage with their gap running plays. Brooks has outstanding potential if he keeps his weight in check.

TexansFanatic
04-29-2012, 08:02 PM
I thought he was referring to Todd McShay.

Dude, that's freaking funny.

Rey
04-29-2012, 08:21 PM
Fixed now:

Round 3 (pick 76) — Brandon Brooks, OG, Miami, OH
Z-Report Top 200: 79

Z-Report Says: Brandon Brooks first caught my eye at the East-West Shrine game where I saw him play with an exceptional amount of power. The thing that really confused me about this pick was that Brooks doesn’t fit the mold of the zone scheme guards we’ve seen in the past. At over 340 pounds, Brooks not only flashes outstanding power, but he also ran a sub 5.0 40 yard dash at the combine and was brought in for individual workouts by both the Texans and the Chiefs (Chiefs looking to run more zone). Obviously, the Texans saw what they needed to in terms of his lateral movement at the individual workout. If Brooks can get to the second level effectively, he has a great shot at competing for a starting job at RG right away. While he’ll be the underdog, Brooks has the type of power that will really give the Texans an advantage with their gap running plays. Brooks has outstanding potential if he keeps his weight in check.

In highschool I was 340 lbs and we ran a zbs very similar to what the texans run. My coach asked me to lose weight because they wanted linemen under 300 lbs. I ended up playing around 325 but I was one of the most athletic linemen on the team. Offense and defense.

That's why I don't like when people talk about size. Yes it's generally a factor, but talent and ability should trump that. Brooks may be asked to lose a little weight, but obviously even at his size the texans saw something from an ability standpoint to take him.

I have high hopes for the guy. Him and crick are my favorite picks with everyone else in a close second.

drs23
04-29-2012, 09:29 PM
Dayum. This surprised me. Perhaps there are a couple of nose tackles in camp now:

Round 6 (pick 195) — Nick Mondek, OT, Purdue
Z-Report Top 200: —
Z-Report Says: I could sit here and try and make something up for you about Mondek, but I didn’t even have a scouting report on him. I didn’t watch Purdue much during the draft process…. just their opponents. My Big-10 scout friend gave me some interesting info on Mondek though:

“Lance, he came over from the defensive side of the ball because I think the offense at Purdue was trying to find a way to get his size and athleticism on the field. He can run and jump and gets you excited from the standpoint of his physical tools. I’m sure the Texans look at him as a project who they are taking a late round shot with just in case something clicks, but I don’t think he can cut it on that side of the ball. But I would suggest to Wade Phillips that before they let that joker go, he might want to take a look at him as a 0-technique defensive tackle because I think he’s got a shot down the road at that position.”

LZ
04-29-2012, 10:09 PM
You weren't high on Reed last year, pre-draft. I pretty much agreed with you, then. But, Reed has won me over with his performance last year. He had 6 sacks in 5 games, after Mario went down. After that, he ran into the dreaded rookie wall and went dormant for a few games. Reed rested in week 17, and came back strong in the playoffs with 3-1/2 sacks. Yes, he should be in a rotation. But, I think he's the real deal as a pass rusher.

Do you remember the defense that the Rams ran in the late 80's, where they would have 2 d-lineman down and 5 LBs standing? Not knowing who was going to blitz and who would drop back. I think the Texans could run something like that now, with Barwin, Reed, Cushing, and Mercilus. I see Wade cooking up something to get everyone of his pass rushers on the field.

I don't think I've ever seen Wade really run a defense like that. I've seen Dick LeBeau do it plenty, but with the personnel he has now, Wade might cook up a few more exotic looks than we are used to seeing. I would hate to take Antonio Smith or Brian Cushing off the field so I'm not sure how they would align it.

LZ
04-29-2012, 10:13 PM
LZ has a keen eye for talent evaluation. Time allowed it would be a thrill for me to spend a few hours talking scouting & the draft over a few cold ones :toast2:

Draft grades are like great beer fluid & fleeting always evolving. Sometimes it's nothing more than timing. Having a great scheme or receipe is just as important as the talent/ingrediants but all are important & work together in the final product.

Wade Phillips has made all the difference. Talk about eye for talent then ability to apply & achieve results. Love this guy.

Merciless is fluid & relentless. I think soccer greatly benefited his athletic skill set. His closing speed is elite & may be near the ideal size/speed ratio for 3-4 OLB? His abilty to close in space is something Mario never actualized (size inhibited?) but had a quick glimpse before injury w/Wade.

What I would like to know is there anyway Barwin, Reed, Cushing & Merciless could all be on the field @ the same time? If so, would this be situational 3-4 or operational from a base 4-3?


Well let's not talk about it, let 's be about it. Organize a meet-up for anyone who wants to get together from this message board and I'll make it out for a beer or two and talk about evaluation and some of the things that I've learned from people who do this for a living. There are some basic principles and guidelines that you have to follow in order to really start to think like a team would and I would be more than happy to share them.

badboy
04-29-2012, 10:13 PM
remember Wade saying it was his job to put Mario in positions he could be successful? That's wahat pumps me up. Unlike last year, offenses will not have any down without someone in their face. If Crick remains healthy he will also add to that consternation.

The Pencil Neck
04-29-2012, 10:14 PM
Well let's not talk about it, let 's be about it. Organize a meet-up for anyone who wants to get together from this message board and I'll make it out for a beer or two and talk about evaluation and some of the things that I've learned from people who do this for a living. There are some basic principles and guidelines that you have to follow in order to really start to think like a team would and I would be more than happy to share them.

Well, heck. Wish I was back in Houston.

ArlingtonTexan
04-29-2012, 10:23 PM
Well, heck. Wish I was back in Houston.

Depending on when might be worth a drive down for me.

Errant Hothy
04-29-2012, 10:27 PM
Well, heck. Wish I was back in Houston.

You ain't the only one. But like AT said might try to swing down for this and see the folks at the same time.

GP
04-29-2012, 10:31 PM
Skype anyone?

texasam82
04-29-2012, 10:35 PM
Where and when? I'm there.

badboy
04-29-2012, 10:37 PM
Someone with more information available on all the prospects and on the requirements of our offense than LZ? Positional coaches and scouts?

No offense to LZ and other guys who put together mocks (I do it myself when I have time) but every team has their own ranking for all these guys. They've got guys who devote all their time to figuring out who's going to fit in their system and who isn't. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong but LZ, WalterFootball, Ourlads, SI.com, etc., do not know more than the teams. And the teams didn't rank some of these guys as high as LZ did and they ranked some other guys higher.

Now's the time to sit back and see how these guys actually do in our system. We've got a nice posse of WRs now and hopefully, they develop.It's a crap shoot no matter who does it. Paid team members, Our Lads, LZ or Badboy. I do know that I called Kareem Jackson a bad pick and that was correct. Is he doing better? Well it will be his third year and many still want him gone (I am not one of them). Why is it such big deal that some of us want to voice our ideas? Isn't it entertainment?

The Pencil Neck
04-29-2012, 10:55 PM
It's a crap shoot no matter who does it. Paid team members, Our Lads, LZ or Badboy. I do know that I called Kareem Jackson a bad pick and that was correct. Is he doing better? Well it will be his third year and many still want him gone (I am not one of them). Why is it such big deal that some of us want to voice our ideas? Isn't it entertainment?

That wasn't what my post was about. I haven't said much of anything about people voicing their ideas or their feelings.

I DON'T get making this into a "every pick of a player I had heard of is good and every pick of a player I hadn't heard of was bad". And I don't get making this into "a Wade knows how to make picks but they let some idiot named Smithiak into the room to choose the WRs" which is really what I was responding to.

What I stated was the truth. Who made the pick? A group of professionals that put a lot of time and consideration into it and who had access to a lot more information than the people who made the lists that Wolf6151 is basing his opinion on did. Guys who studied a lot more film, different film, interviews, and a lot of other things.

Were they the right picks? Maybe. Maybe not. But we aren't going to know until later. Most WR picks do not pan out. And in the past, most of the guys that we have our collective TT sights set on (based on those same lists), don't turn out. There were a lot of RBs we wanted in the draft a few years ago before we ended up with Arian Foster and almost all of those guys have not panned out.

Personally, I still don't see the KJ pick as that bad of a pick. I don't think it would have mattered which CB we would have picked at that point, we would have put him in a horrible situation and he would have sucked.

badboy
04-29-2012, 11:01 PM
I think most everyone is happy. Heck, as much as I am hesitant about Posey, I still love our haul.

People are going to complain about things the team does, it is part of being a free-thinking fan. And we are allowed to- do you guys all only complain about things that you are getting paid to do, that you are experts in? I have a hard time believing that everyone who participates in the NSZ is an expert in every little topic that gets discussed there, yet nobody is told to stop complaining because they are not an expert. Opinions are allowed, and as long as they contribute to the discussion, a poster should not be discouraged from giving an opinion.

Just something to think about- nobody is saying we should fire Smith after this draft! That might be a first.MSR Good post! I am still not down on all their selections but that is part of the fun.

badboy
04-29-2012, 11:10 PM
That wasn't what my post was about. I haven't said much of anything about people voicing their ideas or their feelings.

I DON'T get making this into a "every pick of a player I had heard of is good and every pick of a player I hadn't heard of was bad". And I don't get making this into "a Wade knows how to make picks but they let some idiot named Smithiak into the room to choose the WRs" which is really what I was responding to.

What I stated was the truth. Who made the pick? A group of professionals that put a lot of time and consideration into it and who had access to a lot more information than the people who made the lists that Wolf6151 is basing his opinion on did. Guys who studied a lot more film, different film, interviews, and a lot of other things.
Were they the right picks? Maybe. Maybe not. But we aren't going to know until later. Most WR picks do not pan out. And in the past, most of the guys that we have our collective TT sights set on (based on those same lists), don't turn out. There were a lot of RBs we wanted in the draft a few years ago before we ended up with Arian Foster and almost all of those guys have not panned out.

Personally, I still don't see the KJ pick as that bad of a pick. I don't think it would have mattered which CB we would have picked at that point, we would have put him in a horrible situation and he would have sucked.What surprises me is you feel that you had to state the obvious?

I'll speak only for myself but the players I doubted I had heard of. I can make good defenses of why I did not like the and why I liked others. Still does not make much difference as Texans did pick who they wanted. Still it is part of the entertainment to discuss & disagree.

The Pencil Neck
04-30-2012, 12:12 AM
What surprises me is you feel that you had to state the obvious?

I'll speak only for myself but the players I doubted I had heard of. I can make good defenses of why I did not like the and why I liked others. Still does not make much difference as Texans did pick who they wanted. Still it is part of the entertainment to discuss & disagree.

I had to state the obvious because my original message had nothing to do with you. And the point of my message wasn't to you and had nothing to do with what you do.

I was stating the point I was trying to make... TO THE OTHER GUY.

I've got no problem with doing research and trying to figure out who you like and who you don't like. I've got no problem with having guys that you want and that you hope the Texans take and I've got no problem being let down when they're not taken. I've got no problem with grading the draft (as long as people keep it in perspective.) I've got no problem with discussing the picks and trying to figure out how they'll be used or fit into the roster.

I have a problem with someone trying to start up a Smithiak sucks/Wade rules discussion right after the draft based on two WR picks that need to be further researched.

Wolf6151
04-30-2012, 01:34 AM
Someone with more information available on all the prospects and on the requirements of our offense than LZ? Positional coaches and scouts?

No offense to LZ and other guys who put together mocks (I do it myself when I have time) but every team has their own ranking for all these guys. They've got guys who devote all their time to figuring out who's going to fit in their system and who isn't. Sometimes they're right and sometimes they're wrong but LZ, WalterFootball, Ourlads, SI.com, etc., do not know more than the teams. And the teams didn't rank some of these guys as high as LZ did and they ranked some other guys higher.

Now's the time to sit back and see how these guys actually do in our system. We've got a nice posse of WRs now and hopefully, they develop.

I sure hope I'm wrong about Posey, I hope in 3 yrs. we look back on this pick as a great one. I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong and will gladly eat some crow but until that time comes my opinion won't change, Posey was a terrible pick when you consider the talent at WR that was still available, Nick Toon, Marvin McNutt, Marvin Jones, Greg Childs, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Juron Criner, etc... This was one of the best/deepest WR classes in a long time, the best I can remember. It lacked alot of elite level talent at the top but their were lots of good WR's in this class. I just hope that 3 yrs. from now we're not looking back on this class saying we screwed up reaching for a 6th round pick in the 3rd when there's was lots of other high quality players available.

Rey
04-30-2012, 01:36 AM
I have a problem with someone trying to start up a Smithiak sucks/Wade rules discussion right after the draft based on two WR picks that need to be further researched.

Is smithiak your boy friend? LoL

Just messing with you....kind of

Rey
04-30-2012, 01:40 AM
I sure hope I'm wrong about Posey, I hope in 3 yrs. we look back on this pick as a great one. I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong and will gladly eat some crow but until that time comes my opinion won't change, Posey was a terrible pick when you consider the talent at WR that was still available, Nick Toon, Marvin McNutt, Marvin Jones, Greg Childs, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Juron Criner, etc... This was one of the best/deepest WR classes in a long time, the best I can remember. It lacked alot of elite level talent at the top but their were lots of good WR's in this class. I just hope that 3 yrs. from now we're not looking back on this class saying we screwed up reaching for a 6th round pick in the 3rd when there's was lots of other high quality players available.

That's funny because I'm not that fond of the merci pick and I like both the wr's we got.

Would be awesome if we were both wrong and right.

GP
04-30-2012, 01:41 AM
I sure hope I'm wrong about Posey, I hope in 3 yrs. we look back on this pick as a great one. I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong and will gladly eat some crow but until that time comes my opinion won't change, Posey was a terrible pick when you consider the talent at WR that was still available, Nick Toon, Marvin McNutt, Marvin Jones, Greg Childs, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Juron Criner, etc... This was one of the best/deepest WR classes in a long time, the best I can remember. It lacked alot of elite level talent at the top but their were lots of good WR's in this class. I just hope that 3 yrs. from now we're not looking back on this class saying we screwed up reaching for a 6th round pick in the 3rd when there's was lots of other high quality players available.

I'm with ya' and yet here is some things shared on draft day by Mayock:

Childs suffered a knee injury and that led to other Arkansas WRs to shine and get drafted higher.

Toon has been playing with injuries, too. I think he has a foot that bothers him a lot, from what Mayock was saying during the highlights they showed of him.

Randle has route tree issues, apparently, and was more of a deep threat than any of the simpler underneath routes that our WCO runs a lot of.

There's three guys that maybe Kubiak wasn't too impressed with for various reasons. I don't know much about McNutt, Sanu, and Criner though.

House of Pain
04-30-2012, 02:04 AM
Well let's not talk about it, let 's be about it. Organize a meet-up for anyone who wants to get together from this message board and I'll make it out for a beer or two and talk about evaluation and some of the things that I've learned from people who do this for a living. There are some basic principles and guidelines that you have to follow in order to really start to think like a team would and I would be more than happy to share them.

If this happens, I'm there.

I just need to know a where and when.

The Pencil Neck
04-30-2012, 02:54 AM
I sure hope I'm wrong about Posey, I hope in 3 yrs. we look back on this pick as a great one. I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong and will gladly eat some crow but until that time comes my opinion won't change, Posey was a terrible pick when you consider the talent at WR that was still available, Nick Toon, Marvin McNutt, Marvin Jones, Greg Childs, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Juron Criner, etc... This was one of the best/deepest WR classes in a long time, the best I can remember. It lacked alot of elite level talent at the top but their were lots of good WR's in this class. I just hope that 3 yrs. from now we're not looking back on this class saying we screwed up reaching for a 6th round pick in the 3rd when there's was lots of other high quality players available.

That's all cool.

Posey was someone that I hadn't heard anything about. He wasn't one of the guys I was expecting us to draft.

But that doesn't make him a bad pick.

The ONLY reason he wasn't mentioned in the same breath as all those guys you mentioned was because he was suspended for most of his senior season (and that suspension was for BS). When he did play, he played at the same high level and he played at that level in a run-first offense. Even though he was suspended, he kept his head on straight and continued to work with the team. That shows a lot of maturity that a lot of players wouldn't display.

He's got good speed, he's got good hands, and he's a willing blocker. If he had come out a year earlier, prior to that whole scandal thing, he would have been drafted a lot earlier even though he's the same player.

He may still bust, but you know what? Most of those guys you mentioned are probably going to bust. So lets at least give him a chance to fail.

The Pencil Neck
04-30-2012, 02:55 AM
Is smithiak your boy friend? LoL

Just messing with you....kind of

The barn door don't swing that way, baby.

Not that Smithiak isn't cute.

Wolf6151
04-30-2012, 03:42 AM
That's all cool.

Posey was someone that I hadn't heard anything about. He wasn't one of the guys I was expecting us to draft.

But that doesn't make him a bad pick.

The ONLY reason he wasn't mentioned in the same breath as all those guys you mentioned was because he was suspended for most of his senior season (and that suspension was for BS). When he did play, he played at the same high level and he played at that level in a run-first offense. Even though he was suspended, he kept his head on straight and continued to work with the team. That shows a lot of maturity that a lot of players wouldn't display.

He's got good speed, he's got good hands, and he's a willing blocker. If he had come out a year earlier, prior to that whole scandal thing, he would have been drafted a lot earlier even though he's the same player.

He may still bust, but you know what? Most of those guys you mentioned are probably going to bust. So lets at least give him a chance to fail.

Whether his suspension was BS or not makes no difference, it still shows an inability to follow basic rules. If I'm in college getting a free ride then I'm doing everything possible to not screw that up especially not following a rocket scientist like Pryor around doing goofy ****. Of course that's the voice of age and experience talking and not the stupidity of youth. He's young and we all make mistakes at some point in life, most of them when we're young. I did see an interview with him on YouTube and he said all the right things, lets just hope that he's learned a lesson and grown up a bit. Also I wouldn't say he played at a high level when he came back from suspension, he caught 12 passes in 3 games for 162 yds., a 54 yd. average.

On a positive note I keep reading what alot of people are saying that Posey has good hands and runs good routes with decent speed and decent size. If all of this is true then he's got half the battle won already on his way to being a successful NFL WR. Let's hope that he takes coaching well and learns quickly. Also the UDFA signing on Dwight Jones will alleviate some of the pain of the Posey pick as long as he can keep his mouth shut, gain some humility, and start learning. I think OTA's will humble alot of these guys when they see what the next level is really all about. If I'm wrong about Posey I'll gladly eat some crow, everything tastes better with bacon on it. :fans:

Rey
04-30-2012, 08:05 AM
Whether his suspension was BS or not makes no difference, it still shows an inability to follow basic rules. If I'm in college getting a free ride then I'm doing everything possible to not screw that up especially not following a rocket scientist like Pryor around doing goofy ****. Of course that's the voice of age and

I guess the texans really disagree. He was asked about it and he said he'd do it again. He said he was giving some money to his mom to help her pay bills. Said he doesn't regret doing that.

Supposedly the texans liked his honesty and didn't feel like that was an indication of negative character.

A lot of people I'm the history books have bucked simple rules to do what they felt needed to be done. Hell, this country was founded on bucking simple rules.

G27RR
04-30-2012, 11:20 AM
I guess the texans really disagree. He was asked about it and he said he'd do it again. He said he was giving some money to his mom to help her pay bills. Said he doesn't regret doing that.

Very hard to fault someone in that situation. He probably could have taken money from a booster no strings attached and just hoped not to get caught, which a lot of guys probably do, or he could have done something far worse. He chose to sell his stuff, which probably seemed like the best option at the time. He later took legitimate work to help out.

If someone hasn't been in that situation it's pretty easy to judge. (generic someone, not directing this comment to anyone in particular). I don't think what he did was a character issue, based on what I've read.

GP
04-30-2012, 12:44 PM
It's hard for probably 99% of us to understand what it's like to be at the poverty line and have to resort to maybe breaking some rules in order to help family out.

I can see where his heart was at, but his head wasn't there in terms of the risk/reward aspect of the deal. You have to see college as a four-year free internship where the end results in a paying job (making it onto an NFL team).

Looking back, he should have entered the draft last year. He was a junior last year, right? Should've come out in 2011. I bet he regrets not doing so, which is why he's counting his lucky stars that the Texans drafted him in round 3.

This pick is just kinda awkward in multiple ways. But hey, it's a Texans tradition to take a risk on iffy WRs in the 3rd round. He does appear to be better at catching than JJ. Better at route running than JJ. So we'll see.

drs23
04-30-2012, 01:17 PM
Originally Posted by LZ
Well let's not talk about it, let 's be about it. Organize a meet-up for anyone who wants to get together from this message board and I'll make it out for a beer or two and talk about evaluation and some of the things that I've learned from people who do this for a living. There are some basic principles and guidelines that you have to follow in order to really start to think like a team would and I would be more than happy to share them.

If this happens, I'm there.

I just need to know a where and when.

Likewise, I'm sure.