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View Full Version : Texans' CB who stands among league's best is ..... Brice McCain???


Playoffs
04-02-2012, 01:54 PM
Football Outsiders thinks so:

Best Cornerback Charting Stats 2011 (http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/best-cornerback-charting-stats-2011)

So, it's time to start going through all the various numbers we have for 2011. I want to apologize for taking so long to do some of this. The game charting project ended up running a bit long this year trying to catch up with missed game. Other features haven't been updated yet because we had a bad run of interns taking forever to do projects or straight-out disappearing on us. That's one reason, for example, why the player pages have not yet been updated with 2011 data and 2009-2011 similarity scores. Hopefully we'll be able to make those updates soon. (I also was holding out until I finished with a new version of DVOA that normalized every season to 0% and looked at questions about the "red zone bonus," but it doesn't look like that will be ready for another few weeks.)

Anyway, the game charting has been complete for a few weeks, and now we've had a chance to do some cleaning on it where two charters disagree, and overall I'm ready to toss out some numbers. These are updated versions of the numbers I ran here in December. As usual, the typical caveats about the game charting apply: This is imperfect data based on the game charting project, which means it comes off limited television camera angles, and it is charted by a group of volunteers plus a handful of FO staff members. Sometimes a cornerback will benefit because he happens to be in coverage when a quarterback throws a bad pass, even if he wasn't covering close. Sometimes a cornerback will benefit from a better pass rush, because it's easier to cover when you don't need to cover for six seconds. As we always say, these stats should not be seen as absolute statements on player value. They're just part of the story.

These tables rank all cornerbacks with at least 40 charted passes. I removed all safeties except for Antrel Rolle, who is often playing as a cornerback when the Giants are in nickel (which they are an awful lot of the time). As we do with the cornerback charting stats in the book and on the player pages, I've removed passes marked as Hail Mary, Hit in Motion, Tipped at Line, or Thrown Away. I've also removed wide receiver screens, which aren't really a good way to measure cornerback coverage because a cornerback in man coverage is going to (or at least, is supposed to) immediately get blocked out of the play by another wide receiver. Right now I'm only looking at primary defenders, so this is not adjusted to account for double coverage, or plays where the charter marks a hole in zone but lists an appropriate zone defender in the second DEFENDER column. There are no opponent adjustments yet. However, pass interference is included. No other defensive penalties are included. With defensive pass interference, the defender flagged is almost always the player who was in coverage on the intended receiver; with illegal contact or defensive holding, the flag often comes far away from where an actual pass may be thrown.

see charts/rankings/read more here: http://footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/best-cornerback-charting-stats-2011

Goatcheese
04-02-2012, 02:09 PM
As usual when these types of goofy statistical comparisons are made by FO...

Who is the better corner:

A - 500 plays in coverage, thrown at 100 times, allowed 50 receptions for 10 yards each.

50% completions, 5.0 YPA

B- 500 plays in coverage, thrown at 10 times, allowed 10 receptions for 10 yards each.

100% completions, 10.0 YPA

Football Outsiders' statistic choices for corner effectiveness make no sense.

Dutchrudder
04-02-2012, 02:24 PM
Is "Success Rate" the percentage of passes completed, or not completed? I assume it means not completed given the context, but that just sounds backwards to me.

Also, I wish they had total yards allowed in a column.

silvrhand
04-02-2012, 02:25 PM
when is looks wrong it usually is wrong..

TheIronDuke
04-02-2012, 03:06 PM
Remember, Fred Bennett once a highly-rated corner stats-wise as well. :choke:

TimeKiller
04-02-2012, 03:26 PM
Really hard to measure this sort of statistic, it's so in-depth the time consumed watching film and putting it together is something only someone with looooooooads of free time is capable of. That said, I don't think we'll be agreeing McCain is among the league's best.

Rey
04-02-2012, 03:28 PM
I really don't care where McCain ranks amongst the league...

All I care about is that he was a beast at what we had him doing last year.

ArlingtonTexan
04-02-2012, 03:29 PM
I do know that McCain played better in 2011 than any other year as a pro. Now where that makes him rank amount slot corners much less all corners is beyond any scope of research that I care to attempt to do.

Shaft75
04-02-2012, 03:31 PM
Hmmm...
I wonder if any of this has to do with a better pass rush.

utahmark
04-02-2012, 03:36 PM
Hmmm...
I wonder if any of this has to do with a better pass rush.

Or maybe the fact that he is'nt on the field full time and when he is on the field he's usually not covering the other teams top one or two recievers.

nero THE zero
04-02-2012, 05:22 PM
Hmmm...
I wonder if any of this has to do with a better pass rush.

From the link:
In between Finnegan and Samuel, that's 2009 Houston sixth-round pick Brice McCain taking advantage of the Texans' newly vigorous pass rush to blanket opposing receivers.

nero THE zero
04-02-2012, 05:23 PM
Is "Success Rate" the percentage of passes completed, or not completed? I assume it means not completed given the context, but that just sounds backwards to me.

Also, I wish they had total yards allowed in a column.

From the link:
Next, we'll look at the top cornerbacks in Success Rate. Success Rate, to remind everyone, is the percentage of passes that don't manage to get at least 45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down, or 100 percent of needed yards on third down.

Shaft75
04-02-2012, 06:45 PM
From the link:

Yeah, I'll admit I didn't read it.

WolverineFan
04-02-2012, 06:52 PM
McCain is an excellent slot/nickel CB. He stood out last year because they had him doing what he should have been doing all along.

pec0sb0b
04-02-2012, 07:44 PM
Doesn't look like they'll be spending a lot of effort to improve the secondary. I think that was one of the weaknesses of Dallas' D.

ArlingtonTexan
04-02-2012, 07:57 PM
Doesn't look like they'll be spending a lot of effort to improve the secondary. I think that was one of the weaknesses of Dallas' D.

If Rick smith holds to form he will draft a CB at some point. He has done it every year and has said a number of times that this is be design because of what he belives is the importance of the position.

Dutchrudder
04-02-2012, 11:33 PM
I guess that means McCain will be getting Jonathan Joseph money in 2 years.

lol...

b0ng
04-03-2012, 12:25 AM
I guess that means McCain will be getting Jonathan Joseph money in 2 years.

lol...

He's just so tiny though. It's hard to believe that he could be anything more than a nickel guy guarding the smaller WR's seen in 3 and 4 WR sets. These stats touting him to be the best whatever and such and such are a little on the unbelievable side. I think every Texans fan and most football fans in general know that JoJo is the best secondary player on the Texans roster without question.

Say Watt
04-03-2012, 01:55 AM
Like another poster above stated, Fred Bennett was very highly rated on one of these lists his 1st or 2nd year. We all know what happened to him.

Now, I think McCain is a better overall corner than Bennett, but can be, and was, very effective in one specific role: covering the slot receiver. I don't pay enough attention to know if he was almost always on the slot receiver, but it sure seemed like he was much of the time.

So I can't say this really surprises me, but it certainly doesn't mean McCain is capable of playing the #1 or even #2 CB spot. It'd be great to be wrong, but I just don't see it.

BigBull17
04-03-2012, 12:21 PM
McCain is an excellent slot/nickel CB. He stood out last year because they had him doing what he should have been doing all along.

Ok, I have to know, who is the girl in your avatar?

nero THE zero
04-03-2012, 12:47 PM
Ok, I have to know, who is the girl in your avatar?

Looks like Keely Hazel

Joeycharp89
04-03-2012, 03:34 PM
I love McCain, I think he may be one of the best at what he does, but comparing him to CBs that play different roles in their defense just doesn't work. It's like comparing Shaun Cody to an ILB.