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DerekLee1
03-14-2012, 03:29 PM
Based on last year's compensatory picks, we should get at least a 3 should Mario leave. Should Myers and any others leave, throw in a 4th. Maybe the plan is to trade up and fill holes with youth in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds.

Doppelganger
03-14-2012, 03:35 PM
Based on last year's compensatory picks, we should get at least a 3 should Mario leave. Should Myers and any others leave, throw in a 4th. Maybe the plan is to trade up and fill holes with youth in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds.

That's not the way Compensatory picks work. Compensatory picks are awarded the year after based on a complex, secret formula. From what I have been able to gather these are some of the factors:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.
2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.
3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.
4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

For example. We lost Dunta Robinson in 2010 but signed Wade Smith and Neil Rackers. DR was a true FA lost and Smith/Rackers were true FAs signed. Smith cancelled out DR and Rackers was a +1 for Htown.

Htown did not get a compensatory pick for DR becuase their value was +1. In order to get any pick of any kind, they would have needed to lose 2 additional FAs. Since that did not happen, Htown received zilch.

But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?

In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.

So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.

Dutchrudder
03-14-2012, 03:50 PM
But, you may be asking: Doppelganger, the Texans did get the final pick in 2011(a year later) wasn't that a compensatory pick?

In this case no. Another NFL rule is that there are only a handful of compensatory picks per year. In this case there were no other compensatory picks awarded in the 7th round for 2011. Thus since picks were available, they were handed out to teams based on draft order until they ran out. Texans happened to get the last pick due to record.

So, in your scenario, if we lose MW but sign any other FA, we get zilch. Its all about a net loss/gain and then it goes to contracts to determine value.

There is a separate category for the type of pick the Texans got in 2011, it's called "supplemental compensatory picks". That's the type of comp pick we received. Any picks awarded for lost players are simply "compensatory picks."

DerekLee1
03-14-2012, 03:59 PM
If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.

Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-round/dt-by-round-input:3

Vinny
03-14-2012, 04:19 PM
If we lose Mario, Dreessen, Brisiel, Myers, Barber, Allen and Rackers, we're -7. We don't have any money to go after any other FA's. Say we're able to convince Rackers and Brisiel to stay but lose the others. We're still -5.

Now, based on last year's compensatory picks, if the Panthers can lose Peppers and Feeley and get a 3rd, 6th and 7th, I think Mario, Dreessen and Myers would warrant better than that.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2011/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-round/dt-by-round-input:3
as Doppelganger eluded to, it's not as simple as that. Nobody really knows the formula. There was a guy on KFFL that got pretty damn close every year though.

keyser
03-15-2012, 03:44 PM
Well, Mario is about as certain as you can get to a 3rd round compensatory pick, assuming the Texans don't blow it by signing someone that would knock out the pick. The Texans' FO needs to keep this in mind for any free agents signed this year. I'd hate to see some case where they sign some low-level FA who they don't need badly, and that person effectively costs them a 3rd round pick.

For our numbers, if we look at the 16 players listed as FAs on the Texans' website, there are only 4 that I would think are pretty certain to make the cut as far as counting toward compensatory picks (if they leave): Brisiel, Dreessen, Myers, and Williams. Some others very well might also, but the FO has to be careful about how many higher-priced people they sign. They could easily turn around and lose some good compensatory picks if they're not careful. For example that third-string QB they might look to sign for insurance would get a lot more expensive if he also costs a mid-round pick.

Back to Doppleganger's original post, I think there is one other provision where if you have the same number of people signed as lost, you can still get a compensatory pick if the value of those lost is significantly greater than those signed. If I remember, in this case, it's a much later round pick. For us, that could mean that even if we sign the same number of FAs that we lose, we could still get a 7th or 6th for Mario, which would still stink.

Here's (http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/)the blog of they guy who used to do the compensatory pick analysis. He didn't do them last year, but if you look at his archives, I think he's got the details of the formula worked out as much as anyone publicly as been able to figure them out.

Oh, and one other point - I'm pretty sure that compensatory picks can't be traded. Not sure if that's what DerekLee1 meant (or if you meant other trades that can be made since we do have compensatories).

gtexan02
03-15-2012, 03:51 PM
If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

welsh texan
03-15-2012, 03:59 PM
If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

No, resigning your own doesn't count against. Resigning someone else's does.

I wonder if that plays into the way a team thinks about FA at all? Like if you've got 1 guy who's gonna be marginal to make the team in camp, you might not want to take him cos you're giving up a 3rd round pick for him??

dalemurphy
03-15-2012, 04:02 PM
If we sign Meyers, he cancels out Williams, right? Assuming we don't lose others

No, Myers is ours..

The issue is how many UFA we lose relative to how many UFA (from the other 31 teams) we sign... Beyond that, it's about the level of pay and perhaps performance that factors in. Odds are good that the Texans will get some compensation this year... perhaps multiple picks but it is way too early to know what will happen.

Free agents have to qualify as significant... For instance, I believe Neil Rackers' contract to qualify two years ago. Hopefully the Vickers deal counts as well. Though we would get next to nothing for Vickers, he would make the current tally 2-0... which, as things stand at this moment, would mean a 3rd round pick for Mario.

gtexan02
03-15-2012, 04:04 PM
I thought once they hit the open market they aren't considered ours anymore

majestrate
03-15-2012, 04:06 PM
Think of it like "if 2011 team = 2012 team, no impact; if 2011 team != 2012 team, impact"

ArlingtonTexan
03-15-2012, 04:13 PM
In terms getting compensatory picks, what you really want is for the Bulman, Barberish type guys to sign qualifying offers to get your net loss up. Just out of functioning for 2012, the Texans wil probably sign two or three guys who qualify. For me, if comes down to a guy to help me win in 2012 versus pick number 100 overall in the 2013 draft then give me the player now.

keyser
03-15-2012, 04:15 PM
Free agents have to qualify as significant... For instance, I believe Neil Rackers' contract to qualify two years ago. Hopefully the Vickers deal counts as well. Though we would get next to nothing for Vickers, he would make the current tally 2-0... which, as things stand at this moment, would mean a 3rd round pick for Mario.

I thought we released Vickers? Players you release do not count, only those whose contract ran out/was voided. So, when Winston signs somewhere, he won't help us, either.

That's part of what worries me. I expect we are going to have to sign some people to replace not just the FAs who leave, but also the ones we released or will release.

edo783
03-15-2012, 04:19 PM
If we lose them this year, then aren't the compensatory picks given in next years draft?

ChampionTexan
03-15-2012, 04:21 PM
I thought once they hit the open market they aren't considered ours anymore

Yeah, but if that were the case, then we'd be in line to be awarded up a pick for losing him, and then lose it when we signed him back. (But no, it doesn't work that way)

keyser
03-15-2012, 04:22 PM
In terms getting compensatory picks, what you really want is for the Bulman, Barberish type guys to sign qualifying offers to get your net loss up. Just out of functioning for 2012, the Texans wil probably sign two or three guys who qualify. For me, if comes down to a guy to help me win in 2012 versus pick number 100 overall in the 2013 draft then give me the player now.

That all depends. Sign someone critical like Joseph or Manning and I am fine not thinking much about the compensatory implications. But, what if the decision comes down to:
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $1 million and have to give up a top 100 pick next year
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $650K and keep the top 100 pick
In that case, the second option looks a whole lot better than the first, even if the player's not quite as good. To say you don't worry about what you are losing in compensatory picks makes no sense - it's like placing no value on future draft picks.

keyser
03-15-2012, 04:26 PM
If we lose them this year, then aren't the compensatory picks given in next years draft?

Yes. Anything we get for Mario would be in the 2013 draft. I don't think we'll get any compensatory picks this year, since the Joseph, Manning (and maybe other) signings probably cancel whoever we lost (I don't even remember now if we lost anyone significant last year).

ArlingtonTexan
03-15-2012, 04:37 PM
That all depends. Sign someone critical like Joseph or Manning and I am fine not thinking much about the compensatory implications. But, what if the decision comes down to:
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $1 million and have to give up a top 100 pick next year
- Sign some 2nd string lineman for $650K and keep the top 100 pick
In that case, the second option looks a whole lot better than the first, even if the player's not quite as good. To say you don't worry about what you are losing in compensatory picks makes no sense - it's like placing no value on future draft picks.

Well, I didn't say don't worry about them that at all, but I would not (not my call though) place getting that pick over winning in 2012. My guess is that there will be a situation or two where what you are talking about exactly happens. That assumes the Texans lose at least 3 or 4 players qualifying loses. Right now with only one, I would not handicap myself as GM trying make darn sure "got something" for Mario.

dalemurphy
03-15-2012, 04:45 PM
I thought we released Vickers.

Thanks. My mistake. Sorry to confuse the issue. Vickers was released so he does not qualify.

TexanBacker93
03-15-2012, 04:59 PM
We need Mario to be healthy and have a dominant year this year. Unless we bring in Manning we should be in shape to get a 3rd round pick. I'd just hate to have him be hurt this season and then have 5 great years after that and we'd get nothing.

DerekLee1
03-16-2012, 11:22 AM
We need Mario to be healthy and have a dominant year this year. Unless we bring in Manning we should be in shape to get a 3rd round pick. I'd just hate to have him be hurt this season and then have 5 great years after that and we'd get nothing.

I don't believe his performance matters. It's about the contract that he signs. Being the largest in NFL history, I can't see us getting any lower than a 3rd for him. And no way do we sign anyone anywhere near that kind of contract, so it's a safe bet we'll get at least one pick for him next year. Thanks, Buffalo!

TexanBacker93
03-16-2012, 11:28 AM
In this article it says playing time is part of the formula. This is for last season's draft, though. I don't know if any changes were made in the new CBA.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d81ef2e1e/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs

G27RR
03-16-2012, 12:07 PM
In this article it says playing time is part of the formula. This is for last season's draft, though. I don't know if any changes were made in the new CBA.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d81ef2e1e/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs

The new CBA states that "the rules and proceedures regarding compensatory draft selections previously agreed upon by the NFL & NFLPA shall reman in effect, subsequent to any future changes as to which the parties may agree."

Unless they had some separate negotiations to deal with compensatory picks after the new CBA that we don't know about, the rules are the same.

Maddict5
03-16-2012, 12:40 PM
does this mean if we sign some FA punter (other than turk), we're gonna get nothing for mario? or does it mean we get a 4/5/6 instead of a 3?

also what about backups/camp bodies? do they count?

edit: nvm i looked it up

for any1 else wondering, basically we'll prob get a lesser pick if we sign the same amount of qualifying FA's as we lose. if we sign more fa's than we lose we get nothing.

...and obviously camp bodies dont qualify as they dont make the salary requirements

ArlingtonTexan
03-17-2012, 10:33 AM
I am going to attempt to keep a running total

Qualifying free agetns lost

Mario Willaims
Mike Breisel

Qualifying free signed

none

Texans 2-0

woiuld get 2 compensatory picks in the 2013 draft as St. Patrick's Day 2012

MidtownMikey
03-17-2012, 11:47 AM
Another thing to consider is when the free-agent is signed. From my understanding, signings after June 1st do not qualify unless their previous team made them a qualifying offer (at least a 10% raise over previous salary). It would not surprise me then if to guarantee the comp picks and also to first try to fill in the draft that signings of depth from other teams occurs after June 1st. The Texans also tend to like to look at waivers of other teams during training camp.

I would like to see us sign Rackers before the draft though. If they don't, that might be a signal they truly do want to draft the A&M kicker in a late round.

Hottoddie
03-17-2012, 02:38 PM
My question is, can you receive a pick higher than the 3rd round?

If so, then I'm going to be rooting for Mario to get 20 sacks (0 against us) next year & that he plays in every game.

As for the issue of losing the 3rd or higher pick by signing an equal number of FA's, the team has to decide if the player they're pursuing in free agency is better than any player they could find at that point in the draft.

For example, would you value these players higher than a late 3rd round pick if they were in the draft this year?

Peyton Manning (QB)
Michael Bush (RB)
Brandon Lloyd (WR)
David Hawthorne (MLB/OLB)
Laron Landry (SS)
Reggie Nelson (FS)
Demetrius Bell (OT)
Marcus McNeil (OT)

I know there are age & health concerns with some of these players, but if they fill a need & can help you win now, would they be worth a late 3rd round pick?

MidtownMikey
03-17-2012, 03:18 PM
If the player signed has more value than a 3rd round pick, then sure, I'd be in favor of signing them.

My worry would be if they signed a different kicker than Rackers and something like that cost us the 3rd round pick. That I would not be in favor of. One potential option (though not likely valid with our salary cap issues) is to sign a player but then cut them before week 9 so they don't count for the compensatory picks (at least it sounds from what I read they have to be on the team or IR for 9 weeks to count).

And no, you cannot get better than a 3rd round pick from compensatory picks.

Dutchrudder
03-17-2012, 11:09 PM
So far the Texans are 3-0 in the comp pick running.

Players Lost (my estimate):
Mario (3rd)
Brisiel (5th)
Jason Allen (6/7th)

All three should qualify for picks. It would be nice to have lots of picks next year, because we will likely lose a lot of depth due to being up against the cap after re-signing Duane Brown, Schaub and Barwin.

Lucky
03-17-2012, 11:44 PM
So far the Texans are 3-0 in the comp pick running.

Players Lost (my estimate):
Mario (3rd)
Brisiel (5th)
Jason Allen (6/7th)

All three should qualify for picks. It would be nice to have lots of picks next year, because we will likely lose a lot of depth due to being up against the cap after re-signing Duane Brown, Schaub and Barwin.
Of course, the Texans would need to have a net 3 loss to be awarded these picks.

Mario (3rd) - absolutely
Brisiel (5th) - I think this is correct, seeing that the Vikings received a 5th after losing Matt Birk (whose contract averaged $ 4 million/year) to the Ravens.
Jason Allen (6/7th) - Haven't seen what Allen signed for. I think he will need to sign a contract that averages more than $2 million/year to get the pick in the 6th round.

Lucky
03-17-2012, 11:47 PM
My question is, can you receive a pick higher than the 3rd round?
No, the earliest compensatory selections occur between the 3rd and 4th rounds.

Lucky
03-17-2012, 11:50 PM
For example, would you value these players higher than a late 3rd round pick if they were in the draft this year?

Peyton Manning (QB)
Michael Bush (RB)
Brandon Lloyd (WR)
David Hawthorne (MLB/OLB)
Laron Landry (SS)
Reggie Nelson (FS)
Demetrius Bell (OT)
Marcus McNeil (OT)

Manning and some of the other players listed wouldn't count against the compensatory pick formula, because they are considered "street" free agents. They were cut or released rather than have their contracts expire.

Dutchrudder
03-17-2012, 11:59 PM
Of course, the Texans would need to have a net 3 loss to be awarded these picks.

Mario (3rd) - absolutely
Brisiel (5th) - I think this is correct, seeing that the Vikings received a 5th after losing Matt Birk (whose contract averaged $ 4 million/year) to the Ravens.
Jason Allen (6/7th) - Haven't seen what Allen signed for. I think he will need to sign a contract that averages more than $2 million/year to get the pick in the 6th round.

I was thinking of Wade Smith as a comparison. He netted the Chiefs a 6th, but he signed for 4 years 12 million. Brisiel got 4 years 20 million, so I figure he ought to be worth about a 5th depending on playtime. Possibly a 4th, but I doubt it.

I haven't seen Allen's numbers yet, but I'm guessing it will be 2 mill a year. That could be 6/7th depending on playtimie. I also expect us to sign some scrapheap FAs, so we probably will cancel him out anyways.

Lucky
03-18-2012, 12:11 AM
I also expect us to sign some scrapheap FAs, so we probably will cancel him out anyways.
Only if the free agents the Texans sign receive a qualifying offer (usually over $1 million/year). Plus, the Texans could still lose Dreessen and Rackers. I can't see the Texans going on a free agent spending spree that would endanger the Mario compensatory pick, and I think the Texans will wind up with at least 3.

Xcellerator
03-18-2012, 12:57 AM
Allen signed for 2/8.2Million! Whoa! Overpaid.

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/3/17/2881210/jason-allens-contract-for-two-years-and-8-2-million

Dutchrudder
03-18-2012, 02:03 AM
Allen signed for 2/8.2Million! Whoa! Overpaid.

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/3/17/2881210/jason-allens-contract-for-two-years-and-8-2-million

Holy crap! That's great news for us! Might push his comp pick up to a 5th, or at least a 6th I would assume. Never thought he would get more than 2.5 million a year. I guess the Bengals are hard up after not signing any free agents before yesterday.

ckhouston
03-18-2012, 07:44 AM
Why would we get anything for a UFA? We could have signed them at any time during their period with the team and didnt, and now they sign with another team and we get compensated? That doesnt seem right.

Lucky
03-18-2012, 09:36 AM
Why would we get anything for a UFA? We could have signed them at any time during their period with the team and didnt, and now they sign with another team and we get compensated? That doesnt seem right.
Well, the system has been in place since the salary cap era began. Nothing new.

And there can be good players plucked with these picks. Among the notable compensatory selections are Hines Ward, Marques Colston, Larry Allen, and this QB that New England picked up after the regular portion of the 6th round in 2000. Tom Brady, I believe, is his name.

Lucky
03-18-2012, 09:40 AM
Holy crap! That's great news for us! Might push his comp pick up to a 5th, or at least a 6th I would assume. Never thought he would get more than 2.5 million a year. I guess the Bengals are hard up after not signing any free agents before yesterday.
Yes, maybe back-to-back picks in the 5th for Allen and Briesel. I thought the guy did an OK job for the Texans, but no way is he a $4 millon/year player. Cincy has too much cap room on their hands and no one wants to take it.

ArlingtonTexan
03-18-2012, 09:55 AM
Of course, the Texans would need to have a net 3 loss to be awarded these picks.

Mario (3rd) - absolutely
Brisiel (5th) - I think this is correct, seeing that the Vikings received a 5th after losing Matt Birk (whose contract averaged $ 4 million/year) to the Ravens.
Jason Allen (6/7th) - Haven't seen what Allen signed for. I think he will need to sign a contract that averages more than $2 million/year to get the pick in the 6th round.

Allen signed for 2/8.2Million! Whoa! Overpaid.

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2012/3/17/2881210/jason-allens-contract-for-two-years-and-8-2-million

Curent qualifying loses 3
no qualify signing yet

running total 3 compensatory picks.

ObsiWan
03-18-2012, 07:07 PM
No, the earliest compensatory selections occur between the 3rd and 4th rounds.

Follow-up query:

Is there a limit to how many comp picks that are handed out; overall and per round?

Lucky
03-18-2012, 07:32 PM
Follow-up query:

Is there a limit to how many comp picks that are handed out; overall and per round?
Overall (league wide) there will be 32 compensation picks handed out. If there are not 32 picks allocated to compensate for lost free agents, the remaining will be given to the teams with the worst records/highest draft positions at the end of the 7th round. The Texans have received a few picks due to this circumstance.

An individual team is allowed a maximum of 4 compensatory selections. Even if the Texans were +5 in lost qualifying free agents (Mario, Briesel, Allen, Dreessen, Rackers lost while signing none), the Texans would only receive 4 picks.

There is not a maximum number of picks per round. What round the pick is awarded is determined by some formula involving the player's contract and performance that is only known by the league and some math whiz that once posted on the kffl forum. Even the teams themselves don't know the formula.

ckhouston
03-19-2012, 10:30 AM
Well, the system has been in place since the salary cap era began. Nothing new.

And there can be good players plucked with these picks. Among the notable compensatory selections are Hines Ward, Marques Colston, Larry Allen, and this QB that New England picked up after the regular portion of the 6th round in 2000. Tom Brady, I believe, is his name.

I understand the system, guess my point is that it is flawed.

Dutchrudder
03-19-2012, 11:18 AM
I understand the system, guess my point is that it is flawed.

It's the NFL where sucking is rewarded with the top draft picks, small market teams are kept competitive with the salary cap/revenue sharing and teams that do well are precluded from signing free agents. Comp picks are just another way to help keep up the parity in the league. The NFL is socialism at its finest, if you want a capitalistic sport, follow the EPL. That's a real dog-eat-dog league.

SCOTTexans
03-19-2012, 11:43 AM
According to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora, Jason Allens contract is for two years and $8.2 million.

Any idea on how much this would help the picks? or if it does? its over my head

Insideop
03-19-2012, 01:27 PM
Of course, the Texans would need to have a net 3 loss to be awarded these picks.

Mario (3rd) - absolutely
Brisiel (5th) - I think this is correct, seeing that the Vikings received a 5th after losing Matt Birk (whose contract averaged $ 4 million/year) to the Ravens.
Jason Allen (6/7th) - Haven't seen what Allen signed for. I think he will need to sign a contract that averages more than $2 million/year to get the pick in the 6th round.

So if we lose Rackers what do you think we'll get for him? My guess is somewhere between a 4th and a 6th. He had a pretty good year as far as kickers go, but probably not good enough for a 4th. I hope they sign him though. We don't need another hole to fill in the draft, and I doubt Kubes wants to rely on a rookie kicker, even if he came from A&M. :shades:

ArlingtonTexan
03-19-2012, 01:39 PM
According to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora, Jason Allens contract is for two years and $8.2 million.

Any idea on how much this would help the picks? or if it does? its over my head

see posts around 28-32 in this thread

SCOTTexans
03-19-2012, 02:01 PM
see posts around 28-32 in this thread

Yea i read it after the Post.... didnt realize i was a day behind the times

Lucky
03-23-2012, 12:21 PM
Curent qualifying loses 3
no qualify signing yet

running total 3 compensatory picks.

With the Dreessen defection, the Texans are now +4 in compensatory picks.

mussop
03-23-2012, 02:04 PM
I wish we were getti g these picks this year.

Maddict5
03-23-2012, 02:16 PM
I wish we were getti g these picks this year.

you would think that would be the fairest way for teams who've lost FA's to replenish immediately...esp since theres little to none qualifying guys signed after the draft(and in the rare cases where there are, those can be pushed to next yrs draft)

ArlingtonTexan
03-23-2012, 04:17 PM
you would think that would be the fairest way for teams who've lost FA's to replenish immediately...esp since theres little to none qualifying guys signed after the draft(and in the rare cases where there are, those can be pushed to next yrs draft)

Especially when the largest part of the "secret" formula is the average salary of the contract. Playing time and wards matter, but sems to be less than pure contract value. Never have seen a "why" as to the year wait.

Realistically, most late 3rds don't provide immedaite returns, so you are looking 2014-15 before getting impact, if at all from the compensatory picks.

Lucky
03-23-2012, 08:38 PM
Rotoworld has Dreessen signing a three-year, $8.5 million contract (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3371/joel-dreessen). My best guess for where the Texans compensatory picks would land (as of now):

3rd round - Mario
5th Round - Allen
5th Round - Briesel
6th Round - Dreessen

dalemurphy
03-23-2012, 08:54 PM
Rotoworld has Dreessen signing a three-year, $8.5 million contract (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3371/joel-dreessen). My best guess for where the Texans compensatory picks would land (as of now):

3rd round - Mario
5th Round - Allen
5th Round - Briesel
6th Round - Dreessen

Lucky, what is the deadline for free agency as far as signings that impact draft pick compensations for the 2013 draft? Does that make sense? IN other words, at what point in the 2012 season would a signing be too late to figure into the computations?

Lucky
03-23-2012, 10:42 PM
Lucky, what is the deadline for free agency as far as signings that impact draft pick compensations for the 2013 draft? Does that make sense? IN other words, at what point in the 2012 season would a signing be too late to figure into the computations?
Qualifying free agents would have to sign before the free agency period ends, which according to this link (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3818981) is July 22.

Hottoddie
03-24-2012, 04:25 PM
Not that the Texans will do this, but my thinking is if the Texans are fairly confident in what rounds they should receive comp. picks in they could then bundle next year's pick (non comp. pick) in a trade this year to move up.

For example, if we're sure we're going to get a 3rd for Mario next year, then we could add our regular 3rd next year to a deal to move up in this year's draft. Of course, there is no guarantee of the pick, but history can give a pretty good indicator of what should happen.

My other train of thought is that this would be a good year to trade out of the 1st for a 3rd this year & 1st next year much like New England has been doing for the last few years. Once the initial hit is taken you can then keep doing it & load up on 2nd & 3rd round talent for years. Of course, you do have to find willing trade partners. But, if New England can do it why can't we?

Lucky
03-24-2012, 04:48 PM
For example, if we're sure we're going to get a 3rd for Mario next year, then we could add our regular 3rd next year to a deal to move up in this year's draft. Of course, there is no guarantee of the pick, but history can give a pretty good indicator of what should happen.

My other train of thought is that this would be a good year to trade out of the 1st for a 3rd this year & 1st next year much like New England has been doing for the last few years.
First, trading a pick a year ahead is generally give a -1 round value. So trading a 2013 3rd round pick is akin in value to trading a 2012 4th round pick. You're not moving up very much in the 1st round with a 4th round pick (maybe 2 or 3 spots). However, that 2013 3rd round pick could possibly get a 2012 4th round pick, if there's a player you really like and there's a team that's willing to deal.

I don't like the Texans giving up picks in this draft for a future draft. One, this team will need players now after all of the free agent losses. Two, the Texans will already have possibly 11 picks in the 2013 draft. It's difficult to imagine a contending team needing more than 11 picks. Three, this team needs to win now. Those extra picks in 2013 won't help in that regard.

aussie_texan
03-25-2012, 01:03 AM
Rotoworld has Dreessen signing a three-year, $8.5 million contract (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3371/joel-dreessen). My best guess for where the Texans compensatory picks would land (as of now):

3rd round - Mario
5th Round - Allen
5th Round - Briesel
6th Round - Dreessen

wow next years draft could be amazing.
draftniks and mockers are gonna have a field day with this :evil:

mussop
03-25-2012, 02:45 PM
Especially when the largest part of the "secret" formula is the average salary of the contract. Playing time and wards matter, but sems to be less than pure contract value. Never have seen a "why" as to the year wait.

Realistically, most late 3rds don't provide immedaite returns, so you are looking 2014-15 before getting impact, if at all from the compensatory picks.

According to McClain performance with new team is part of the formula. He says we should all hope these players do well. The better they do the better compensation we will get.

Who knows if this is true or not.

Lucky
03-25-2012, 07:12 PM
The better they do the better compensation we will get.

Who knows if this is true or not.
I think production has more influence on how the picks are slotted within the round, while the actual round is dictated by contract. We'll know for sure about this time next year.

HOU-TEX
03-26-2012, 02:57 PM
Not that we'll get a darn thing, but they're starting to leak out and should all be announced by days end

Steelers get 3 7th rounders
Packers get 2 4th rounders and 2 7's

Runner
03-26-2012, 03:09 PM
Not that we'll get a darn thing, but they're starting to leak out and should all be announced by days end

Steelers get 3 7th rounders
Packers get 2 4th rounders and 2 7's

Who did they lose that equated to those picks?

Won't these continue to change when acquisitions are made as free agency continues?

HOU-TEX
03-26-2012, 03:13 PM
Who did they lose that equated to those picks?

Won't these continue to change when acquisitions are made as free agency continues?

These Comp picks are from last years FA period. Comp picks for this FA period will be handed out next year.

Runner
03-26-2012, 03:21 PM
These Comp picks are from last years FA period. Comp picks for this FA period will be handed out next year.

Duh. I didn't make that assumption though it should have been clear. I guess I'll go poke around and see who they lost/gained past year.

ChampionTexan
03-26-2012, 03:56 PM
Duh. I didn't make that assumption though it should have been clear. I guess I'll go poke around and see who they lost/gained past year.
From last off-season:
Green Bay has bid farewell to, in order of importance, former starters Cullen Jenkins, Daryn Colledge, Atari Bigby, Nick Barnett, Brandon Jackson, Mark Tauscher and Brady Poppinga. Also gone are several players who filled lesser roles.

So far, just Mason Crosby, John Kuhn and James Jones have re-signed. All are important players, but not as important as the first two Packers lost.

LINK (http://packerchatters.com/?p=26598)

I'm reading that the Steelers are likely to only get one 7th Round pick LINK (http://www.steelersdepot.com/2012/03/steelers-7th-round-compensatory-draft-pick/) and their 2011 UFA losses were Matt Spaeth (TE), Nick Eason (DT), and Keyaron Fox (LB).

Texan_Bill
03-26-2012, 04:54 PM
3m Paul Kuharsky ‏ @espn_afcsouth
Also, compensatory formula weighs your FA losses vs gains. Cut guys like Manning, Winston don't factor in

3m Paul Kuharsky ‏ @espn_afcsouth
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Compensatory picks for guys like Mario Williams and Cortland Finnegan come in 2013.

Paul Kuharsky ‏ @espn_afcsouth
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Delete
FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details #Texans get no compensatory draft picks.



From Twitter

Playoffs
03-26-2012, 05:31 PM
The following 2012 compensatory draft picks have been determined by the NFL Management Council:

ROUND CHOICE/ROUND OVERALL SELECTION TEAM
3
33-95 Oakland
4
33-128 Minnesota
34-129 Oakland
35-130 Baltimore
36-131 New York Giants
37-132 Green Bay
38-133 Green Bay
39-134 Minnesota
40-135 Dallas
5
33-168 Oakland
34-169 Baltimore
35-170 Indianapolis
6
33-202 New York Jets
34-203 New York Jets
35-204 Cleveland
36-205 Cleveland
37-206 Indianapolis
38-207 Carolina
7
33-240 Pittsburgh
34-241 Green Bay
35-242 New York Jets
36-243 Green Bay
37-244 New York Jets
38-245 Cleveland
39-246 Pittsburgh
40-247 Cleveland
41-248 Pittsburgh
42-249 Atlanta
43-250 San Diego
44-251 Buffalo
45-252 St. Louis
46-253 Indianapolis

http://www.cbssports.com/general/blog/rob-rang/18065499/nfl-awards-15-teams-compensatory-picks-for-use-in-the-2012-draft

roooshi
03-26-2012, 05:56 PM
ooops....deleted.

Ole Miss Texan
03-26-2012, 05:57 PM
ooops....deleted.

Yay, Mr. Irrelevant again!!!


EDIT - ooops... WTH!! I saw it on nfl.com too! 23 teams vs. CBS's 15 teams.

That article is from last year when we got to have the Mr. Irrelevant pick.
TRICKERY!!! lol

Jackie Chiles
03-26-2012, 05:58 PM
ooops....deleted.

That article is from last year when we got to have the Mr. Irrelevant pick.

ckhouston
03-28-2012, 11:49 AM
It is going to be SWEET if we win it all this year and then get a handful of extra picks as well in next years draft.

ArlingtonTexan
03-29-2012, 11:10 AM
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/29/source-texans-do-on-year-deal-with-donnie-jones/

signed a one year deal...given that he is a medicore at best punter, maybe for veteran minimium meaning he does not qualify. Also, if Hartmann is ready after his suspension, Jones could be cut before playing enough to be a qualified player. somebody could correct on this front.

My temptation is to go conservative and list him as qualified, so Texans 4 qualifed loses versus 1 qualified signing.

ArlingtonTexan
03-29-2012, 09:51 PM
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/29/source-texans-do-on-year-deal-with-donnie-jones/

signed a one year deal...given that he is a medicore at best punter, maybe for veteran minimium meaning he does not qualify. Also, if Hartmann is ready after his suspension, Jones could be cut before playing enough to be a qualified player. somebody could correct on this front.

My temptation is to go conservative and list him as qualified, so Texans 4 qualifed loses versus 1 qualified signing.

looks like it is aveteran minimum contract and should not count as a qualifying FA

back to 4-0

Dutchrudder
03-30-2012, 12:00 AM
looks like it is aveteran minimum contract and should not count as a qualifying FA

back to 4-0

UNDEFEATED!!! :doot:

ArlingtonTexan
04-12-2012, 09:00 PM
http://sportsblogs.star-telegram.com/cowboys/2012/04/bradie-james-gets-less-than-a-million-to-sign-with-houston.html

Looks like a veteran minimium signing therefore not counting against the number.

ArlingtonTexan
04-13-2012, 07:20 PM
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/18473971/draft-tip-sheet-compensatory-picks-can-pay-off-big

One of the problems with the compensatory pick system cited above is that so many winning teams are rewarded with additional extra picks. But, as a few general managers noted, perennial winning teams often aren't as involved in free agency, sustain a net "loss," and so merit the extra choices. Of the 15 franchises awarded compensatory picks for 2012, six had winning records in 2011, five had losing marks, and four finished at .500 ...

Lucky
04-24-2012, 08:54 PM
With Neil Rackers signing with the Redskins, the Texans may have a net 5 in lost free agents this offseason. I said may, because the contract value has yet to be released, and Rackers has yet to make the team. A team may receive a maximum of 4 compensatory picks in a given draft. So the team might be able to sign a free agent for more than the minimum and still get the maximum number of compensatory selections.

Dutchrudder
04-25-2012, 11:09 AM
With Neil Rackers signing with the Redskins, the Texans may have a net 5 in lost free agents this offseason. I said may, because the contract value has yet to be released, and Rackers has yet to make the team. A team may receive a maximum of 4 compensatory picks in a given draft. So the team might be able to sign a free agent for more than the minimum and still get the maximum number of compensatory selections.

If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that.

Seņor Stan
04-25-2012, 11:14 AM
If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that.

I was thinking the same thing...kinda good value considering we are going to have the last pick in every round next year. :homer:

Playoffs
04-25-2012, 11:34 AM
2013 draft looks deep.

Plus, I want to keep all our 2013 picks because 2013 will be the ALL NAME draft:

Fluker, Tyrann, Barkevious Mingo, Marquess, Jelani, Kawann, Manti Te'o, Star Lotulelei, Sharrif...

These are world class, must have names!!!

disaacks3
04-25-2012, 12:00 PM
If things don't change, we can count on getting 4 comp picks next year, which would give us 11 in the draft. I think that frees us up to use a future pick or two this year to get some more picks. Maybe send our 2013 3rd and 2012 6th to get a late 2nd. We need some impact players to make a deep playoff run, and extra 2nd or 3rd round picks would go a long ways towards that. I like the way you think. Rick, get this man in the war room!

MidtownMikey
04-25-2012, 02:27 PM
While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.

Texanmike02
04-25-2012, 02:45 PM
While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.

I usually make fun of people who post once every six months because they have a tendancy to post something idiotic. This is not the case. Good job. You may now post once every 3 months man.

Mike

Dutchrudder
04-25-2012, 04:25 PM
While I would love to do the trade DutchRudder suggests, it just wouldn't happen.

A 2013 3rd round pick is considered to be valued as a 4th round pick in this years draft by most systems. Throwing in a 4th round pick and a 6th round pick will definitely *NOT* get a team to trade a late 2nd round pick.

Looking back at previous trades involving a future 3rd round pick, I found 2 similar trades.

2005
64(2nd) = 84(3rd), 195(6th), next years 3rd

2009
91 (late third) = 137 (5th round, but first pick in 5th), 213 (7th round, but early), next years 3rd

We should either expect to have to trade our current 3rd round pick, a late round pick, and next year's 3rd for a 2nd, or expect to get at best a 3rd round pick, and that is only likely if we toss in a 2nd late round pick (say 5th round).

Overall I wouldn't kill the Texans if they trade away a future pick, but don't expect them to get equal value for a future pick as if it was a pick this year, it just doesn't happen that way. One reason the Patriots often trade for future picks is they can find a team desperate and therefore are able to get 2nd or 3rd round picks in a future trade for 3rd or 4th round picks in the current draft. If anything, that's what a good team does. It takes advantage of desperate teams, rather than acting desperate itself.

Ok, I admit a late second is a bit ambitious, but a 3rd is possible.

2007: Pats trade 91 (late 3rd) for Oakland's 7th (211) and future 3rd (69) in 2008.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft07/news/story?id=2850327

This is overpaying for 121, but another example:
2007: Denver Broncos: Acquire pick No. 121 (fourth).
Minnesota Vikings: Acquire picks No. 176 (sixth round), No. 233 (seventh round) and the Broncos' third-rounder (73) in 2008.
*Minny traded the 73rd pick to the Chiefs as part of the Jared Allen trade, who selected Jamaal Charles with it.

It just goes to show that draft pick valuations are all over the place. The Vikes got more out of 121 than the Pats did out of 91. Just gotta find a GM that is frazzled or drunk and see if they will go for something like that. Offer up a 2013 3rd and a 2011 5th to see if you can get a mid 3rd in 2011 and take another player. Someone out there will probably bite.

MidtownMikey
04-25-2012, 05:59 PM
Good point on the 2007 trades. I just noticed the 2009 trade for a 3rd rounder as the most recent example, and then went back to 2005 to find an example involving trading a future 3rd round pick and others for a 2nd round pick.

Values are all based on the GM and will be different for every team and every situation, but I do like your proposed 5th + future 3rd for 3rd. That's closer to what I could see the Patriots taking if we offered (of course their 3rd round pick is pretty late at #93). Patriots are probably our best bet at finding a suitor interested in stockpiling future picks, though there is always the question of whether we want to help them even more.

When looking at trading away future picks though, usually it is a team with a bad record from the season before (in my 2009 example, the Seahawks had a 4-12 record season before, in your 2007 example, the Raiders had a 4-12 record season before, both finishing 5-11 in the next season). Therefore the team trading for the future pick likely believes the team will once again have a pick early in that round in the following year.

The one example of overpaying you gave is the one example I noticed of a team with a winning record trading away a future pick (Broncos were 9-7). Again makes me a little worried about the value we would get for a future pick when I think most of the league at least sees us as a lock again to win the AFC South.

Overall I think our best value for trading draft picks will come with trading down current picks, not trading away future picks. I have liked examples you have given in other threads Dutchrudder of the Texans trading out of the 1st round.