PDA

View Full Version : Grantland: Free Agent Hype Chronicles: Arian Foster


Playoffs
03-01-2012, 11:23 PM
Free Agent Hype Chronicles: Arian Foster (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18814/free-agent-hype-chronicles-arian-foster)
By Bill Barnwell on March 1, 2012 1:35 PM ET


Disclaimer: This article is part of my series on free agency from the perspective of the agent, where I prepare Scott Boras-esque "books" that detail where each player stands in the marketplace and why he deserves as much of your team's money as possible. Normally, my goal is to use statistics and historical context to present the most accurate depiction of football that I can, but in this series, all I want to do is convince you to spend money on the player in question. As a result, I may include information or suggest comparisons that I don't necessarily agree with, just as an agent might try to play up his clients' strengths. Keep that in mind when you're reading. (For more on this, check out the Monday piece on Mike Wallace that started this series, and the subsequent articles covering Packers quarterback Matt Flynn and Texans pass-rusher Mario Williams.)


In a league that gets more and more pass-happy each year, Arian Foster represents an opportunity for a forward-thinking team to get ahead of the curve. As the nickel alignment becomes the base defense for most NFL teams, organizations around the league are acquiring and developing players with far more regard to their abilities defending against the pass than their performance against the run. In the old days, going three wide on offense forced a defense to bring its weaker players onto the field. Now, offenses are beginning to realize that they can do that by going with heavy formations, packing the line of scrimmage, and using an intelligent runner to pick apart teams used to dropping back at the snap. Just as the NFL fluctuates between moments when the 3-4 and the 4-3 are in vogue, the league will continue to fluctuate between times when passing is king and times when running the ball down the opposition's throat is job one. A team that chooses to build its offensive identity around an effective running game in 2012 can acquire road-grading offensive linemen, ferocious tight ends, and a dominant running back far easier than it can a passing offense of similar quality.

Arian Foster is the exact sort of player around whom any sort of rushing attack can be built, because he's not just a mere running back; he's a football player. In an era of specialized roles, absent durability, and terrible inconsistency from even the league's highest-paid running backs, Foster is a three-down back for whom the opposition must account on every single play. And while some players use that "three-down" adjective to mask the fact that they're not very good at their primary duty, Arian Foster has produced two of the most impressive seasons in recent memory over the past 24 months. In fact, considering that little fact about the league becoming so pass-happy, it might actually be two of the most impressive seasons in a lot longer.

The Best Runner in Football

Over the past two years, Arian Foster has suited up for 29 regular-season games as the Texans' starting running back. What he's done in those games, very simply, has not been matched by anyone else in football. Across those 29 games, Foster has produced a whopping 2,840 rushing yards on only 605 attempts. Running backs just don't do that these days.

At the most basic level, we can note that Foster has averaged 97.9 yards per game during those 29 games. That's more than any other player in football, and outside of Maurice Jones-Drew, no other player is within nine yards of Foster's total. He's also led the league in rushing touchdowns over that time frame, with his 26 rushing scores producing an average of nearly one per game. And among players with 400 carries or more over the past two seasons, Foster is tied for second-best in yards per carry, with only LeSean McCoy ahead of Foster's 4.7-yard rushing average.

Based solely on his performance running with the football, we can safely suggest that Arian Foster has been the most productive rusher in the NFL over the past two seasons. His numbers are even more impressive, though, when we consider them in context with what other great running backs from history have done when they were 24 and 25, as Foster was over the past two years.

Despite playing in an era in which the running back and the running game have been de-emphasized around the league, Foster's 97.9 rushing yards per game ranks 10th all-time among backs who carried the ball a combined 400 times or more during their age-24 and age-25 seasons. His average of 4.7 yards per carry, meanwhile, ranks an impressive 14th. In each case, Foster's performance is better than those by several Hall of Famers and recent standouts. Those cases include:

IN FOSTER'S COMPANY

Player Yds/Gm Rank Yds/Att Rank
Arian Foster 97.9 10 4.69 14
LaDainian Tomlinson 96.1 13 4.57 18
Walter Payton 93.9 16 4.28 35
Marcus Allen 91.5 17 4.47 27
Barry Sanders 91.4 18 4.45 30
Maurice Jones-Drew 90.5 20 4.44 32
Curtis Martin 87.4 23 3.81 77
Adrian Peterson 86.5 27 4.49 25
Tony Dorsett 81.1 38 4.50 22

Can't Stop, Won't Stop

Foster's 2011 performance is even more virtuous when you consider how thin the stars around him got on offense. Every running back would benefit from having Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson around them to occupy defenders, but when Schaub and Johnson (and guard Mike Brisiel) went down with injuries and missed most of the second half of the season, it was Arian Foster who stepped up to make big plays for the Houston offense. Despite playing next to a rookie quarterback and going against nine-man fronts at times, Foster's performance actually improved once T.J. Yates got into the lineup.

FOSTER SPLITS

Arian Foster Splits Games Atts Yds Yds/Att Yds/Gm Rush TD
With Schaub 8 171 740 4.3 92.5 6
With Leinart, Yates 7 158 769 4.9 109.9 7

Those seven games without Schaub at quarterback include two playoff games in which Foster was dominant. During Houston's playoff adventure, Foster carried the ball 51 times for a whopping 285 yards, an average of nearly six yards per attempt. Arian Foster has the mental and emotional characteristics of a team leader, and his performance backs up that story. When his team needed him most, Foster strapped the Houston offense onto his back and carried it as far as any running back could.

The Well-Rounded Man

While some great running backs are nonentities in passing situations, Arian Foster is a dangerous weapon that can create first downs out of even the slightest lapse in defensive concentration or the smallest mismatch. Over the past two years, he's been the second option in the Houston passing game, as only Andre Johnson has averaged more catches per game than Foster. And when you combine that receiving work with Foster's performance as a ballcarrier, well, you realize just how special a player Arian Foster truly is.

In addition to his 97.9-yard-per-game rushing average, Foster has chipped in with 42.1 receiving yards per game as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. That's a total of 140.0 yards from scrimmage per game. As you might suspect, that's the most of any running back in football over the past two years, but there's more to it than that. Nobody's been able to match that total in six years, as the last guy to average 140 yards from scrimmage per game over a two-year stretch was Tiki Barber in 2005-06. Only five players have pulled that off since the turn of the millennium, and it's a who's who of multipurpose threats: Barber, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

With all that production, it's obvious that Foster is an enormous part of the Texans offense. The extent to which that is true, though, is notable. In 2010, when Foster played all 16 games, he was responsible for 35.9 percent of Houston's yardage from scrimmage, the highest such percentage in the league. In 2011, when Foster played in 13 games, he still managed to accrue 30.9 percent of his team's yardage, which was the fourth-highest percentage in the league. If we don't consider the games Foster missed and replace a gritty 40-yard performance in Week 2 from a clearly injured Foster with those two playoff games, he actually gathered 39.5 percent of Houston's yardage from the line of scrimmage by himself in that 15-game sample. Only Maurice Jones-Drew was responsible for more. Even while alongside a franchise quarterback and a world-class wide receiver, Foster has been essential to one of the league's best offenses.

While we mentioned Foster's injury, it's also worth noting how durable he's been as a professional. Despite a heavy workload in 2010 and toward the end of 2011, Foster's only notable injury during his football career has been a hamstring pull that cost him part of the 2011 campaign. Foster's shown a hunger to play through minor injuries at both the college and professional levels, and unlike players who have been put through the wringer, Foster's proven production has come without the damning long-term effects of an unsustainable workload. Foster has just 659 pro carries on the board, which is nearly 50 percent fewer than the 1,198 carries Adrian Peterson received through age 25 before signing his long-term extension with the Vikings and promptly suffering a torn ACL. Foster's legs should remain fresh for years to come.

Conclusion

If you could put together the perfect running back on paper, what qualities would you look for? You'd want a back who was explosive and capable of big plays, but powerful and patient enough to read his blocks while making the consistent gains teams need to move the chains. You'd want a player with the receiving skills to bail out a quarterback under pressure and the pass-blocking ability to prevent that quarterback from being pressured. You'd want a player who was big enough to carry the ball without concerns about overwork, but one with a low center of gravity who slips through the sorts of lazy tackles that abound in the modern game. You'd want a back with a proven history of production who was young enough to improve. You'd want a back with the skills of a first-round pick and the hunger of an undrafted player.

If you could put together the perfect running back on paper, you would draw up Arian Foster. Now, thanks to Houston's salary-cap issues and impending free agents on all sides of the ball, you've got one chance to get him.


read more: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18814/free-agent-hype-chronicles-arian-foster

Ryan
03-01-2012, 11:24 PM
The thought of losing him terrifies me much more than Mario although i definitely want both. Pay the man!

fiasco west
03-02-2012, 06:15 AM
If Foster is playing for any other team next season it will be such a massive failure. The Texans will deserve what they get if they let him go.

IMO he IS the franchise player on offense now. He IS the face of the team for everyone. It should be no question that you make this guy your primary concern. I've said it many times. Foster is a special player, I honestly believe he's a RB that is durable and will produce year in and year out.

Thorn
03-02-2012, 08:17 AM
Foster will for sure be back. I wouldn't worry about Foster. Mario may, or may not, be back. Foster is more important to the team anyway.

TejasTom
03-02-2012, 08:26 AM
...If you could put together the perfect running back on paper, you would draw up Arian Foster...

Sums it up for me.

Mr teX
03-02-2012, 08:48 AM
Free Agent Hype Chronicles: Arian Foster (http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18814/free-agent-hype-chronicles-arian-foster)
By Bill Barnwell on March 1, 2012 1:35 PM ET


Disclaimer: This article is part of my series on free agency from the perspective of the agent, where I prepare Scott Boras-esque "books" that detail where each player stands in the marketplace and why he deserves as much of your team's money as possible. Normally, my goal is to use statistics and historical context to present the most accurate depiction of football that I can, but in this series, all I want to do is convince you to spend money on the player in question. As a result, I may include information or suggest comparisons that I don't necessarily agree with, just as an agent might try to play up his clients' strengths. Keep that in mind when you're reading. (For more on this, check out the Monday piece on Mike Wallace that started this series, and the subsequent articles covering Packers quarterback Matt Flynn and Texans pass-rusher Mario Williams.)


In a league that gets more and more pass-happy each year, Arian Foster represents an opportunity for a forward-thinking team to get ahead of the curve. As the nickel alignment becomes the base defense for most NFL teams, organizations around the league are acquiring and developing players with far more regard to their abilities defending against the pass than their performance against the run. In the old days, going three wide on offense forced a defense to bring its weaker players onto the field. Now, offenses are beginning to realize that they can do that by going with heavy formations, packing the line of scrimmage, and using an intelligent runner to pick apart teams used to dropping back at the snap. Just as the NFL fluctuates between moments when the 3-4 and the 4-3 are in vogue, the league will continue to fluctuate between times when passing is king and times when running the ball down the opposition's throat is job one. A team that chooses to build its offensive identity around an effective running game in 2012 can acquire road-grading offensive linemen, ferocious tight ends, and a dominant running back far easier than it can a passing offense of similar quality.

Arian Foster is the exact sort of player around whom any sort of rushing attack can be built, because he's not just a mere running back; he's a football player. In an era of specialized roles, absent durability, and terrible inconsistency from even the league's highest-paid running backs, Foster is a three-down back for whom the opposition must account on every single play. And while some players use that "three-down" adjective to mask the fact that they're not very good at their primary duty, Arian Foster has produced two of the most impressive seasons in recent memory over the past 24 months. In fact, considering that little fact about the league becoming so pass-happy, it might actually be two of the most impressive seasons in a lot longer.

The Best Runner in Football

Over the past two years, Arian Foster has suited up for 29 regular-season games as the Texans' starting running back. What he's done in those games, very simply, has not been matched by anyone else in football. Across those 29 games, Foster has produced a whopping 2,840 rushing yards on only 605 attempts. Running backs just don't do that these days.

At the most basic level, we can note that Foster has averaged 97.9 yards per game during those 29 games. That's more than any other player in football, and outside of Maurice Jones-Drew, no other player is within nine yards of Foster's total. He's also led the league in rushing touchdowns over that time frame, with his 26 rushing scores producing an average of nearly one per game. And among players with 400 carries or more over the past two seasons, Foster is tied for second-best in yards per carry, with only LeSean McCoy ahead of Foster's 4.7-yard rushing average.

Based solely on his performance running with the football, we can safely suggest that Arian Foster has been the most productive rusher in the NFL over the past two seasons. His numbers are even more impressive, though, when we consider them in context with what other great running backs from history have done when they were 24 and 25, as Foster was over the past two years.

Despite playing in an era in which the running back and the running game have been de-emphasized around the league, Foster's 97.9 rushing yards per game ranks 10th all-time among backs who carried the ball a combined 400 times or more during their age-24 and age-25 seasons. His average of 4.7 yards per carry, meanwhile, ranks an impressive 14th. In each case, Foster's performance is better than those by several Hall of Famers and recent standouts. Those cases include:

IN FOSTER'S COMPANY

Player Yds/Gm Rank Yds/Att Rank
Arian Foster 97.9 10 4.69 14
LaDainian Tomlinson 96.1 13 4.57 18
Walter Payton 93.9 16 4.28 35
Marcus Allen 91.5 17 4.47 27
Barry Sanders 91.4 18 4.45 30
Maurice Jones-Drew 90.5 20 4.44 32
Curtis Martin 87.4 23 3.81 77
Adrian Peterson 86.5 27 4.49 25
Tony Dorsett 81.1 38 4.50 22

Can't Stop, Won't Stop

Foster's 2011 performance is even more virtuous when you consider how thin the stars around him got on offense. Every running back would benefit from having Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson around them to occupy defenders, but when Schaub and Johnson (and guard Mike Brisiel) went down with injuries and missed most of the second half of the season, it was Arian Foster who stepped up to make big plays for the Houston offense. Despite playing next to a rookie quarterback and going against nine-man fronts at times, Foster's performance actually improved once T.J. Yates got into the lineup.

FOSTER SPLITS

Arian Foster Splits Games Atts Yds Yds/Att Yds/Gm Rush TD
With Schaub 8 171 740 4.3 92.5 6
With Leinart, Yates 7 158 769 4.9 109.9 7

Those seven games without Schaub at quarterback include two playoff games in which Foster was dominant. During Houston's playoff adventure, Foster carried the ball 51 times for a whopping 285 yards, an average of nearly six yards per attempt. Arian Foster has the mental and emotional characteristics of a team leader, and his performance backs up that story. When his team needed him most, Foster strapped the Houston offense onto his back and carried it as far as any running back could.

The Well-Rounded Man

While some great running backs are nonentities in passing situations, Arian Foster is a dangerous weapon that can create first downs out of even the slightest lapse in defensive concentration or the smallest mismatch. Over the past two years, he's been the second option in the Houston passing game, as only Andre Johnson has averaged more catches per game than Foster. And when you combine that receiving work with Foster's performance as a ballcarrier, well, you realize just how special a player Arian Foster truly is.

In addition to his 97.9-yard-per-game rushing average, Foster has chipped in with 42.1 receiving yards per game as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. That's a total of 140.0 yards from scrimmage per game. As you might suspect, that's the most of any running back in football over the past two years, but there's more to it than that. Nobody's been able to match that total in six years, as the last guy to average 140 yards from scrimmage per game over a two-year stretch was Tiki Barber in 2005-06. Only five players have pulled that off since the turn of the millennium, and it's a who's who of multipurpose threats: Barber, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Edgerrin James, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

With all that production, it's obvious that Foster is an enormous part of the Texans offense. The extent to which that is true, though, is notable. In 2010, when Foster played all 16 games, he was responsible for 35.9 percent of Houston's yardage from scrimmage, the highest such percentage in the league. In 2011, when Foster played in 13 games, he still managed to accrue 30.9 percent of his team's yardage, which was the fourth-highest percentage in the league. If we don't consider the games Foster missed and replace a gritty 40-yard performance in Week 2 from a clearly injured Foster with those two playoff games, he actually gathered 39.5 percent of Houston's yardage from the line of scrimmage by himself in that 15-game sample. Only Maurice Jones-Drew was responsible for more. Even while alongside a franchise quarterback and a world-class wide receiver, Foster has been essential to one of the league's best offenses.

While we mentioned Foster's injury, it's also worth noting how durable he's been as a professional. Despite a heavy workload in 2010 and toward the end of 2011, Foster's only notable injury during his football career has been a hamstring pull that cost him part of the 2011 campaign. Foster's shown a hunger to play through minor injuries at both the college and professional levels, and unlike players who have been put through the wringer, Foster's proven production has come without the damning long-term effects of an unsustainable workload. Foster has just 659 pro carries on the board, which is nearly 50 percent fewer than the 1,198 carries Adrian Peterson received through age 25 before signing his long-term extension with the Vikings and promptly suffering a torn ACL. Foster's legs should remain fresh for years to come.

Conclusion

If you could put together the perfect running back on paper, what qualities would you look for? You'd want a back who was explosive and capable of big plays, but powerful and patient enough to read his blocks while making the consistent gains teams need to move the chains. You'd want a player with the receiving skills to bail out a quarterback under pressure and the pass-blocking ability to prevent that quarterback from being pressured. You'd want a player who was big enough to carry the ball without concerns about overwork, but one with a low center of gravity who slips through the sorts of lazy tackles that abound in the modern game. You'd want a back with a proven history of production who was young enough to improve. You'd want a back with the skills of a first-round pick and the hunger of an undrafted player.

If you could put together the perfect running back on paper, you would draw up Arian Foster. Now, thanks to Houston's salary-cap issues and impending free agents on all sides of the ball, you've got one chance to get him.


read more: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18814/free-agent-hype-chronicles-arian-foster


uhh..no it would be this man in his prime.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_FE_uI9wT7mo/S6qeXcDL4OI/AAAAAAAAAAM/k9ye-bKw0Q4/s1600/p1_tomlinson.jpeg

ckhouston
03-02-2012, 09:45 AM
Foster will for sure be back. I wouldn't worry about Foster. Mario may, or may not, be back. Foster is more important to the team anyway.

Teams place a much higher value on a pass rusher than a running back. Also the team invested a #1 pick in Mario so that holds a higher value than an undrafted RB as well. I understand what you are saying, but from a business standpoint and a future of the team standpoint, Mario is worth more. I hope they sign both.

Ryan
03-02-2012, 09:55 AM
La Canfora pointed out the possibility of a team like the Bengals offering Foster a very front loaded contract that would be tough for them to match. I think we need to franchise him.

GP
03-02-2012, 10:01 AM
Basically this guy is echoing what I've been saying:

1. Arian Foster strapped the Texans to his back and carried the load, especially in the last half of reg season and damn near won the divisional round for us if only.....well, never mind.

2. Arian Foster is durable. He doesn't take hard shots. He gets what he can get out of a play, and then checks out...wisely so. This extends his shelf life.

3. He moves the chains. He creates plays when we need them most. We bog down and BAM! he busts off a 40-yard scamper tight roping it down the sideline or catches a pass and weaves his way through layers of defenders.

I listed all the RBs this team has gone through as they tried to find a guy like AF. Now that they've found him, it'd be pretty foolish to let him get away. Lock him up for 5 or 6 years, he'll be 30 at the end of that contract....and you will have spent those 5 or 6 yrs not worrying about that position AND using your drafts to build around him.

This decision is so easy, even an Aggie can do it.

GP
03-02-2012, 10:03 AM
La Canfora pointed out the possibility of a team like the Bengals offering Foster a very front loaded contract that would be tough for them to match. I think we need to franchise him.

I would be livid if the Bengals got him. The team we beat to win the South, then beat AGAIN in the playoffs? L-I-V-I-D.

If that happened, then Bengals have last laugh on us. Period.

BigBull17
03-02-2012, 10:24 AM
uhh..no it would be this man in his prime.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_FE_uI9wT7mo/S6qeXcDL4OI/AAAAAAAAAAM/k9ye-bKw0Q4/s1600/p1_tomlinson.jpeg

LT is a good compairison though. Except he vanishes in big games, and Foster went off...

Rey
03-02-2012, 10:26 AM
Foster is a must have guy.

Big Lou
03-02-2012, 11:13 AM
Whats so funny about this is that the article this guy wrote is suppossed to be a manipulation of the facts from an Agent to "sell" how great his player is. In this case it was an accurate description not a perversion of the stats.

I like Mario and would love to keep him for the right price, he has tremendous potential, but the hype article that he wrote about Mario was just that, hype.

This article about Foster was far from hype it was right on the money regardless of the writers attempt.

Mr teX
03-02-2012, 11:14 AM
LT is a good compairison though. Except he vanishes in big games, and Foster went off...

Stop being a sheep & pumping that crap the media spews..LT when healthy & in his prime was just fine in playoff games. The year they should've won it all in 2006, he ran all over NE. the year prior to that he had a decent game in the playoffs as well.

Playoffs
03-02-2012, 11:22 AM
I would be livid if the Bengals got him*.Banish the thought. :overreact:


*It would be the equivalent of the Astros not going the last step to keep Carlos Beltran. I had second row seats next to the dugout, and dropped them along with any further Astros interest when Carlos left.

GP
03-02-2012, 05:58 PM
Baltimore just tagged Ray Rice today, March 2nd 2012. $7.7 million for 2012.

I think it's smart to tag a guy, it instantly nullifies the emotional aspect for agents and players. They can't even field offers from other teams throughout 2012, so that means a good, lengthy time for Baltimore to approach Ray Rice with a long-term deal.

When it's the summer, and you got a big contract waiting for you...and you're sweating away in camp...you begin to think "I might as well take the deal. What if I get hurt this year?" The psychological advantage is to the owner and front office, IMO. That deal just sits and soaks, waiting for them to sign it.

Link to story here. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7637055/ray-rice-given-baltimore-ravens-franchise-tag)

BALTIMORE -- Ray Rice has been designated the franchise player of the Baltimore Ravens, who hope to buy some time while negotiating a lengthy deal for the two-time Pro Bowl running back.

Rice's contract expired after a season in which he amassed an NFL-best 2,068 yards from scrimmage and helped the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship Game.

As a franchise running back, Rice will earn $7.7 million in 2012. Baltimore, however, intends to have him around a lot longer.

"As we have in the past, placing the franchise designation on a player allows us to keep negotiating on a long-term contract," general manager Ozzie Newsome said Friday. "Our goal is to keep Ray Rice a Raven. "

Last September, Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata traded his franchise tag for a five-year, $61 million contract. Rice would like to follow a similar path.

Soon after Baltimore's loss to New England in the AFC title game, Rice said, "I'm not going to complain about the franchise tag, but I prefer the long-term. That's what Baltimore, the city, the fans, would love to know -- that Ray Rice is going to be here, not just one year, but for many years to come."

Big Lou
03-02-2012, 06:48 PM
Baltimore just tagged Ray Rice today, March 2nd 2012. $7.7 million for 2012.

I think it's smart to tag a guy, it instantly nullifies the emotional aspect for agents and players. They can't even field offers from other teams throughout 2012, so that means a good, lengthy time for Baltimore to approach Ray Rice with a long-term deal.

When it's the summer, and you got a big contract waiting for you...and you're sweating away in camp...you begin to think "I might as well take the deal. What if I get hurt this year?" The psychological advantage is to the owner and front office, IMO. That deal just sits and soaks, waiting for them to sign it.

Link to story here. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7637055/ray-rice-given-baltimore-ravens-franchise-tag)

I hope Arian is smarter than Ray Rice, which I don't think is a problem. They are saying Ray Rice wants a Adrian Peterson type deal. First off, Ray you haven't run for 2000 in a season, and you aren't Peterson, you may be good but your not 7 years 100 million good dude (Or whatever Petersons deal is worth). Arian would excel in any team or system, but I think the ZBS makes him even better. He deserves a pay day for sure, he has been patient and a quiet (See Dumbta). However seeing how passionate he was last year during the loss to the Ravens, I hope he is cool with getting paid, but allowing the team to maintain its roster with talent so they can pursue the Playoffs and SB. RB's have short careers, but that works both ways, financially and the pursuit of rings, so he needs to balance what he desires most.

Carr Bombed
03-03-2012, 07:07 PM
I've been out of town the last couple of days.. Any news on Arian? Are we really going to let this guy get passed the deadline without atleast slapping a franchise tag on him? The thought of losing Williams and Foster in the same offseason is scaring the bejuses out of me.

dalemurphy
03-03-2012, 07:54 PM
I've been out of town the last couple of days.. Any news on Arian? Are we really going to let this guy get passed the deadline without atleast slapping a franchise tag on him? The thought of losing Williams and Foster in the same offseason is scaring the bejuses out of me.

One of three things will happen by Monday:

1. he will sign a new deal
2. he will get the franchise tag
3. he will get a restricted FA offer

There is no way the deadlines pass without one of those things happen. So, worst case scenario is #3 and someone signs him away but we get their first round pick this year. Not ideal... but a far cry from getting nothing.

GP
03-03-2012, 08:37 PM
One of three things will happen by Monday:

1. he will sign a new deal
2. he will get the franchise tag
3. he will get a restricted FA offer

There is no way the deadlines pass without one of those things happen. So, worst case scenario is #3 and someone signs him away but we get their first round pick this year. Not ideal... but a far cry from getting nothing.

If Arian Foster gets away, I'm all for giving up our #26, the first round pick we get in exchange for Foster leaving Houston, and maybe even next year's first round pick (and our 3rd rounder this year) for the #2 spot and grab RG3.

Because if we're going to lose our franchise RB, the guy whom I think is what makes this offense "go" no matter who is QB, then I want an Arian Foster-type FREAKAZOID at the QB position who can beat teams throwing or running, pick your poison.

But if we lose Foster and just ho-hum along as if we're fine, then Yates nor Lisfranc Schaub is going to do jack squat with a depleted and aging AJ and a few welterweights for WR2 and WR3. Period.

RG3 should be the plan if a team steals Foster form us. You're already drafting #26 anyways, so it's basically an early 2nd round pick as far as I am concerned. And we would have lost our playmaker in Foster, but we got an extra first rounder for him...so parlay those picks and maybe another first in 2013 and maybe a 3rd somewhere in either 2012 or 2013 and just stun the world and send a big EFF YOU! to the NFL nation--Oh, you thought we would just curl up and die when Foster left? We zombie, bro. We just. Keep. Going.

infantrycak
03-03-2012, 09:08 PM
If Arian Foster gets away, I'm all for giving up our #26, the first round pick we get in exchange for Foster leaving Houston, and maybe even next year's first round pick (and our 3rd rounder this year) for the #2 spot and grab RG3.

Because if we're going to lose our franchise RB, the guy whom I think is what makes this offense "go" no matter who is QB, then I want an Arian Foster-type FREAKAZOID at the QB position who can beat teams throwing or running, pick your poison.

I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

GP
03-03-2012, 09:28 PM
I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

That was two years ago in 2010, too. Not so in 2011.

Both AJ and Schaub went down with major injuries, not a mere tweaked hamstring like Foster had in preseason and beginning of 2011 reg season.

I would stake this team's future on Arian Foster at this point. And if he's gone, there has to be an upgrade at QB because we all know full well that the chances of Schaub returning to 2010 form is somewhere between slim and none. Schaub > Yates. But is post-Lisfranc Schaub > Yates? And is Yates got the juice to get it done if he doesn't have a formidable RB like Arian Foster and teams are keying on Ben Tate every Sunday?

I "get it" that Schaub is not a bum. But IF you had the chance to grab a prospect like RG3, since you've lost Foster and you don't know if Schaub will fully bounce back AND you don't know if Yates has the stuff, why don't you take the gamble? Everything else on this team is NOT a gamble unless 2011 was a fluke. The only gamble you're taking is the two 1st rounders you have this year and probably next year's first too. In essence, treat your 2nd round picks in 2012 and 2013 as if it was your 1st round picks...because you'd be drafting somewhere between 26 and 32 anyways in the 1st round next year.

I know there's no way. I see a more prudent course to follow, to save the 1st rounders and stay the course, etc. It's like in Godfather when Tessio chose poorly...Michael admits it was the right play, it just didn't work out for Tessio. Kubiak doesn't want to become the next Tessio. He will stay the course and not go Daniel Snyder all of a sudden.

Which brings us back to Arian Foster. Because Kubiak will stay the course with Schaub and Yates (and might add another prospect like he did with Yates in 2011) I am betting that this means Kubiak demands Arian Foster be signed long-term so as to give Yates the security blanket he's going to need. If your young gun QB is to have a sporting chance, he has to have as many weapons as he can get. That's my bet. Kubiak NEEDS Foster if he stays the course with what he has QB.

b0ng
03-03-2012, 11:37 PM
If Arian Foster gets away, I'm all for giving up our #26, the first round pick we get in exchange for Foster leaving Houston, and maybe even next year's first round pick (and our 3rd rounder this year) for the #2 spot and grab RG3.

Because if we're going to lose our franchise RB, the guy whom I think is what makes this offense "go" no matter who is QB, then I want an Arian Foster-type FREAKAZOID at the QB position who can beat teams throwing or running, pick your poison.

But if we lose Foster and just ho-hum along as if we're fine, then Yates nor Lisfranc Schaub is going to do jack squat with a depleted and aging AJ and a few welterweights for WR2 and WR3. Period.

RG3 should be the plan if a team steals Foster form us. You're already drafting #26 anyways, so it's basically an early 2nd round pick as far as I am concerned. And we would have lost our playmaker in Foster, but we got an extra first rounder for him...so parlay those picks and maybe another first in 2013 and maybe a 3rd somewhere in either 2012 or 2013 and just stun the world and send a big EFF YOU! to the NFL nation--Oh, you thought we would just curl up and die when Foster left? We zombie, bro. We just. Keep. Going.

I don't know about that. If RG3 becomes a generational player that carries your team to multiple superbowls then yes, this becomes an ideal scenario. I just don't know because along with losing AF, you're also giving up some good draft picks that you could use to build around him.

That being said, if it was Andrew Luck, I'd probably say go for it. No disrespect to RG3, but I just like Andrew Luck way more as a prospect, and he's not going to be in play unless the Colts go all Matt Millen on us.

Playoffs
03-04-2012, 11:26 AM
It appears to me that the Texans almost have no choice but to franchise Arian, and then pay him when the cap jumps next year ... taking into account Mario & Myers???

The1ApplePie
03-04-2012, 11:38 AM
If the Bengals nab Arian, then the Texans can use that second 1st on another good impact player.

Landing say DE/OLB Nick Perry and a WR at the bottom of the first could be transformative. You'd still have Ben Tate and with the way RBs slide in the draft these days, you may have a shot at a great second-tier RB like LaMichael James at the bottom of the second.

Carr Bombed
03-04-2012, 12:51 PM
One of three things will happen by Monday:

1. he will sign a new deal
2. he will get the franchise tag
3. he will get a restricted FA offer

There is no way the deadlines pass without one of those things happen. So, worst case scenario is #3 and someone signs him away but we get their first round pick this year. Not ideal... but a far cry from getting nothing.

To me a late first round pick is almost nothing when you lose a player with Foster's skill set and talent.

You do not let players like him get away. It would be the equivalent of letting Andre go in his mid 20s. They have to lock this guy up and if they can't then they need to franchise tag him where they have a entire year to try to lock him up. Option 3 isn't a option that they should take.

Nawzer
03-04-2012, 01:03 PM
Has there been any news regarding Foster? Tomorrow's the deadline for the franchise tag I believe and I'm just surprised that there's been no news from the Texans. I think they will tag him and he won't be happy but the Texans are not in a good position salary cap wise.

Carr Bombed
03-04-2012, 01:14 PM
Has there been any news regarding Foster? Tomorrow's the deadline for the franchise tag I believe and I'm just surprised that there's been no news from the Texans. I think they will tag him and he won't be happy but the Texans are not in a good position salary cap wise.

I know and that's why I'm starting to get worried. You'd think something would've leaked out by now. What is going on with Foster and the Texans? A lot of teams have already franchised the players they're going to franchise, so what are the Texans planning to do with Foster?

Nawzer
03-04-2012, 01:33 PM
I know and that's why I'm starting to get worried. You'd think something would've leaked out by now. What is going on with Foster and the Texans? A lot of teams have already franchised the players they're going to franchise, so what are the Texans planning to do with Foster?

Yeah the Saints tagged Brees, the Ravens tagged Rice, but nothing from the Texans yet. I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Also, there seems to be nothing from the Houston media members either.

infantrycak
03-04-2012, 02:22 PM
I know and that's why I'm starting to get worried. You'd think something would've leaked out by now. What is going on with Foster and the Texans? A lot of teams have already franchised the players they're going to franchise, so what are the Texans planning to do with Foster?

Yeah the Saints tagged Brees, the Ravens tagged Rice, but nothing from the Texans yet. I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Also, there seems to be nothing from the Houston media members either.

Sometimes no news can be good news. It might be the Texans feel closer to getting a deal done with Foster than Baltimore or NO did with Rice and Brees. Doesn't matter when the tag gets slapped on as long as it is before the deadline.

Jackie Chiles
03-04-2012, 04:05 PM
I won't have any problem with the team franchising Arian but I believe there is a great deal of upside in making him a RFA and it has absolutely nothing to do with the first round pick we could receive as compensation.

If, for instance, Arian and his agent are negotiating based off that ridiculous Chris Johnson contract we are not going to be able to come to terms with him. Let him hit free agency and the market can dictate his value. I believe he would get a lucrative offer but I very much doubt there is a single team in the league that gives him something outrageous.

I also don't believe another team could come up with an offer we could not match, front-loading be damned. If we have to cut/restructure to fit him in there won't be a problem imo. Plus, if the deal is heavily front-loaded its most likely not going to be a cap killer in the long run.

Now if some team does do the unthinkable and offers him Chris Johnson money we wind up with their first round pick in a worst case scenario and probably increase our chances at retaining Mario. Certainly there is some risk but I think there is some serious reward potential in letting the market set his value.

Playoffs
03-04-2012, 04:23 PM
Interesting that if we franchise Foster -- I think we will -- his contract will be $7.7 million.

If we franchise Mario(won't happen), his contract would be $22.9 million. :yikes:

drs23
03-04-2012, 08:20 PM
Typical Texans MO. We won't know anything until after it's done, and then perhaps not even hear it from the team.

GP
03-04-2012, 09:38 PM
I don't know about that. If RG3 becomes a generational player that carries your team to multiple superbowls then yes, this becomes an ideal scenario. I just don't know because along with losing AF, you're also giving up some good draft picks that you could use to build around him.

That being said, if it was Andrew Luck, I'd probably say go for it. No disrespect to RG3, but I just like Andrew Luck way more as a prospect, and he's not going to be in play unless the Colts go all Matt Millen on us.

Never underestimate the possibility that Irsay all of a sudden flips and drafts RG3 under the power of the moment.

If that happened, and we had 2 first rounders and wanted to add some more to the Rams for the #2...we could get Andrew Luck.

I'd actually like to see the Texans try a ballsy move that like, tbh. I think either of those guys, RG3 or Luck, will be great QBs.

Nawzer
03-04-2012, 09:42 PM
Sometimes no news can be good news. It might be the Texans feel closer to getting a deal done with Foster than Baltimore or NO did with Rice and Brees. Doesn't matter when the tag gets slapped on as long as it is before the deadline.

Well I wasn't referring to good or bad news. Just the lack of news regarding Foster. You may be right that no news is good new, but I wouldn't mind if Foster did get tagged. I'm scared of giving running backs big contracts just they tend to not last too long. A year to year situation with Foster might not be such a bad thing for the Texans.

GP
03-04-2012, 09:46 PM
To me a late first round pick is almost nothing when you lose a player with Foster's skill set and talent.

You do not let players like him get away. It would be the equivalent of letting Andre go in his mid 20s. They have to lock this guy up and if they can't then they need to franchise tag him where they have a entire year to try to lock him up. Option 3 isn't a option that they should take.

From what someone else told me, I think it was Champion Texan, after tagging Foster we'd only have until July 17th to do a long-term deal. After that, you cannot sign him to a long-term contract until after the last regular season game of 2012. Sucks, huh?

Dutchrudder
03-05-2012, 02:09 AM
Marshawn Lynch just re-signed with the seahawks for 18 million guaranteed out of 31 million total. Not sure how many years, but 4 or more could set the market a bit lower for Foster.

Thorn
03-05-2012, 08:49 AM
It's interesting to read some of the comments in here after hearing the news Foster has a five year deal.

Rey
03-05-2012, 08:52 AM
I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

No they don't depend on the running back to move the ball in between the 20's, but Arian is Mr. touchdown.

GP
03-05-2012, 09:16 AM
It's interesting to read some of the comments in here after hearing the news Foster has a five year deal.

I was in favor of making him the main priority. Glad the Texans listened to me. ;)

b0ng
03-05-2012, 11:43 AM
Never underestimate the possibility that Irsay all of a sudden flips and drafts RG3 under the power of the moment.

If that happened, and we had 2 first rounders and wanted to add some more to the Rams for the #2...we could get Andrew Luck.

I'd actually like to see the Texans try a ballsy move that like, tbh. I think either of those guys, RG3 or Luck, will be great QBs.

Even though the whole scenario is now kaput, if Andrew Luck was dangling and we had a chance to get him you'd have to at least make an attempt.

ObsiWan
03-07-2012, 03:56 AM
I don't think the Texans will let Foster get away but Schaub and AJ led the league in passing and receiving with no running game. This offense does not all depend on the RB.

I disagree.
Every other year since 2007, when Schaub first arrived, we've managed 1,500 yds rushing. Three out of those five seasons we've had a 1,000 yd rusher.
Slaton in 08. Foster in 2010 and 2011.

This isn't the Pats' or Saints' or Packers' offense. We have to successfully run the ball for Schaub's play action rollout to be respected.