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View Full Version : Keenum In The 5th Or 6th Round?


gary
02-18-2012, 10:47 PM
Poll on the way.

Dutchrudder
02-18-2012, 11:02 PM
Definitely, but not before the 5th, and only if we lose Lienart or if Schaub is not expected to play next year.

badboy
02-18-2012, 11:11 PM
He is my 6th pick, Gary.

gary
02-18-2012, 11:29 PM
I'd take a chance on him.

badboy
02-18-2012, 11:35 PM
I'd take a chance on him.regardless of "system" his stats are astronomical. He does know how to throw a pass. Yards per attempt almost 9.5 and TDs 48 to only 5 INTs is sick.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/191981/case-keenum

thunderkyss
02-19-2012, 01:54 PM
What's the point? Are we looking for the next Tony Romo or Tj Yates?

If we're looking for a career back-up, I can see it. If we're looking for Schaub insurance..... we need someone who won't make it past the 2nd round.

PapaL
02-19-2012, 02:09 PM
Every year this board becomes enamored w a Texas kid and how we should draft him. To date none of them have panned out to be better than what we have.

This kid was a great college system QB. How many times has that translated into the NFL? I'm sure we'll see him lighting up the arena league real soon.

Just saying...

76Texan
02-19-2012, 02:41 PM
The Colts may like Luck's atheticism and "potential" enough to take him.
They might decide they like RG III a little better due to his overall quickness both with his arms and legs.

But they will be smart if they take Keenum with their #1 pick.
I hope they don't.

This kid has top football IQ - it's way off the chart.
The next Drew Brees here.

The only downside is he needs to be careful not to subject himself to uneccessary hits.

This comes from a guy (me) who had correctly assessed Newton as the #1 pick last year and Gabbert not worthy of first round status.

The Colts offense also fits Keenum's game very well while Luck is more suited to the Texans'.

I will really hate to see the Colts draft him.

thunderkyss
02-19-2012, 03:17 PM
The Colts may like Luck's atheticism and "potential" enough to take him.
They might decide they like RG III a little better due to his overall quickness both with his arms and legs.

But they will be smart if they take Keenum with their #1 pick.
I hope they don't.


Smart would be taking Blackmon or Kalil; heck, even Coples(?) with their first & Keenum with their second.

TexanSam
02-19-2012, 03:31 PM
The Colts may like Luck's atheticism and "potential" enough to take him.
They might decide they like RG III a little better due to his overall quickness both with his arms and legs.

But they will be smart if they take Keenum with their #1 pick.
I hope they don't.

Smart? Keenum isn't a highly rated QB prospect in this draft as far as I'm aware. Taking Keenum in the first would be the ultimate reach. Why would they do that? If they want Keenum they can have him...in the 3rd day of the draft.

76Texan
02-19-2012, 03:34 PM
Smart would be taking Blackmon or Kalil; heck, even Coples(?) with their first & Keenum with their second.

That would be too scary to think about.

Keenum and that NO offensive line (with a couple of years under his belt), the Saints won't miss Drew Brees.
I believed Brees was the first pick in the second round back then.

The Colts with Blackmon in there will be trouble as well.
Keenum isn't going to waste too much time in the pocket.
But either Blackmon or a good O-lineman would turn that offense around pretty quickly with Keenum in there.

76Texan
02-19-2012, 03:36 PM
Smart? Keenum isn't a highly rated QB prospect in this draft as far as I'm aware. Taking Keenum in the first would be the ultimate reach. Why would they do that? If they want Keenum they can have him...in the 3rd day of the draft.

We'll see.
I'm pretty confident my statement will be closer to reality comes draft day (baring injury os some sort of unexpected set back.)

If Keenum has the size of Luck, he would be a no-brainer as the #1 overall pick.

gary
02-19-2012, 03:57 PM
All three just might be very good in the NFL.

thunderkyss
02-19-2012, 04:28 PM
We'll see.
I'm pretty confident my statement will be closer to reality comes draft day (baring injury os some sort of unexpected set back.)

If Keenum has the size of Luck, he would be a no-brainer as the #1 overall pick.

76...... old friend, what are you doing?

No one sees Keenum as a First round pick much less a #1 overall. Regardless how well you think he grades out in comparison, even if the Colts felt the same way, they would wait for him in the second round... just makes more sense.

Even if they miss, but trust me no one is going to take Keenum in the first, they can still get Foles from Arizona or Maybe even Tannehill will fall.

I understand you do your own analysis.... as do the 32 teams. But unless there is reason to believe Keenum is going to be a 1st round pick by some team..... the smart thing is to wait & get him in the second; not take him with the #1 overall.

I can't imagine what Keenum can do between now & the draft to make him a #1 overall pick over Luck & RGIII.

76Texan
02-19-2012, 04:47 PM
76...... old friend, what are you doing?

No one sees Keenum as a First round pick much less a #1 overall. Regardless how well you think he grades out in comparison, even if the Colts felt the same way, they would wait for him in the second round... just makes more sense.

Even if they miss, but trust me no one is going to take Keenum in the first, they can still get Foles from Arizona or Maybe even Tannehill will fall.

I understand you do your own analysis.... as do the 32 teams. But unless there is reason to believe Keenum is going to be a 1st round pick by some team..... the smart thing is to wait & get him in the second; not take him with the #1 overall.

I can't imagine what Keenum can do between now & the draft to make him a #1 overall pick over Luck & RGIII.

I never said that Keenum is a sure first rounder (and only due to his size.)
All I know is that each team wants to have a franchise QB.
I see Keenum as a franchise QB.
A team with a spread offense will do well taking a long look at his game tapes.

So far, all we hear is from people who are not in the war room of any NFL team.
If there's any sound coming from those rooms, they are the normal smoke and mirror stuffs.

PapaL
02-19-2012, 05:14 PM
We're still talking about a 6th Year Senior that's projected to be a 7th/FA right?

76Texan
02-19-2012, 05:59 PM
We're still talking about a 6th Year Senior that's projected to be a 7th/FA right?

Not me! http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

badboy
02-19-2012, 06:38 PM
Texans will not be looking for a Schaub replacement or even his immediate back up. They should be looking for a competitor for Yates. A late round Keenum can throw up a pas or two. He historically has favored one half of field but that is only a training issue.

gary
02-19-2012, 06:55 PM
You just never know how a pick will work out good or bad.

Rey
02-19-2012, 07:28 PM
Keenum may be a very good QB at the next level, but taking him with the #1 overall is not "smart"...

76Texan
02-19-2012, 10:47 PM
Keenum may be a very good QB at the next level, but taking him with the #1 overall is not "smart"...

And the reasoning is?

thunderkyss
02-19-2012, 11:01 PM
And the reasoning is?

Because no one else will be looking at him until mid-way through the second round at the earliest.

76Texan
02-19-2012, 11:10 PM
Because no one else will be looking at him until mid-way through the second round at the earliest.

Says who?

thunderkyss
02-19-2012, 11:19 PM
Says who?


Casserly, Reuter, Brooks, Harrison (http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts)


WalterFootball (http://walterfootball.com/draft2012_3.php)

Kiper (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story?id=7575960&_slug_=mel-kiper-second-mock-draft-year&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl %2fdraft2012%2fstory%3fid%3d7575960%26_slug_%3dmel-kiper-second-mock-draft-year)

I'm pretty sure Mayock will say the same as well.

76Texan
02-19-2012, 11:46 PM
Casserly, Reuter, Brooks, Harrison (http://www.nfl.com/draft/2012/mock-drafts)


WalterFootball (http://walterfootball.com/draft2012_3.php)

Kiper (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story?id=7575960&_slug_=mel-kiper-second-mock-draft-year&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl %2fdraft2012%2fstory%3fid%3d7575960%26_slug_%3dmel-kiper-second-mock-draft-year)

I'm pretty sure Mayock will say the same as well.

The same Casserly who basically thought Newton will be a bust, yeah right!

The same Walterfootball that had Gabbert as the #2 QB last year.

The same Kiper who had Luck going #1 last year (no way in hell), Mallett going #7 (2nd ranked QB) and Newton as #8 (3rd ranked QB.)

Why would you want to believe in those guys?

76Texan
02-19-2012, 11:48 PM
And this was Mayock's ranking last year:

1.Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2.Jake Locker, Washington
3.Cam Newton, Auburn
4.Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
5.Andy Dalton, TCU

thunderkyss
02-19-2012, 11:48 PM
The same Casserly who basically thought Newton will be a bust, yeah right!

The same Walterfootball that had Gabbert as the #2 QB last year.

The same Kiper who had Luck going #1 last year (no way in hell), Mallett going #7 (2nd ranked QB) and Newton as #8 (3rd ranked QB.)

Why would you want to believe in those guys?


Would you like to propose a wager?

I am fairly certain Keenum won't go in the first round, meaning the Colts can have him in the second if they wanted.

Rey
02-19-2012, 11:50 PM
Are you really tryinh to argue that taking kennum with the #1 overall would be a good idea? That makes 0 sense. Sorry I even commented. This is not a real discussion. Peace.

gwallaia
02-19-2012, 11:56 PM
I watched Case Keenum in almost every college game he played. He is one of the smartest QB's I have ever seen.

And that's all I'm going to say.

76Texan
02-20-2012, 01:36 AM
Would you like to propose a wager?

I am fairly certain Keenum won't go in the first round, meaning the Colts can have him in the second if they wanted.

TK, read my post carefully.
Basically, I have said that similar to Drew Brees, Keenum's size may make teams think twice.
I would too, as a GM.

I will have to sit down and think really hard:
- Luck is a great athlete; he's pretty smart. He has good size. The percentage is he will last in the NFL.
- RG III is a different kind of athlete; he's very smooth. He can hurt defense both ways. He isn't much bigger than Keenum but he's also quite smart.
Perhaps his elusiveness will help him prolong his career (on the other hand, he might decide to try to evade one play more often than he should have...)
- Keenum, who was a running QB in HS (option), that has made an incredible transformation into a spread QB with off-the-chart football intelligence.

What kind of system do we currently have.
Which of these QBs fit our system the most.

For the Colts, it isn't Luck.
He isn't as fluid in the shotgun spread, a spot where a QB really needs to make split decision very often (as opposed to the WCO that relies less on the shotgun).

Both RG III and Keenum can be ready for their system early (like Dalton for the Bengals - This is a guy that many of those so-called "experts" had very little regard for.)

Personally, I had said that I watched him (Dalton) against the Cougars (in his freshman year) and I already saw a smart QB.

It doesn't matter where a guy is drafted.
The draft process is very dynamic.
We don't know what's going on behind close doors; who has the say.
Sometimes an owner will overide his football people.
Sometimes a defensive-minded coach just want "a sure thing" at the QB position.

My prognosis is simply that Keenum qualifies as a franchise QB, and some team will see that and draft him to be their QB of the future.

If a team (especially a spread offense) doesn't consider Keenum long and hard, I honestly think that their scouting department is very lacking.

His football IQ is up there among the best (around the same point in time in their respective career - and yes, I did watch Joe Montana's performance against the Coogs in the Ice Bowl when I was there at UH as a student.)

This is the number one trait for a successful QB at the NFL level.

I fail to see any kind of reasoning that doesn't consider the guy.
He is worthy of being considered for the number one pick.
That doesn't mean he's a lock... far from that... it only means that he should be in the conversation.

At the end of the day, I see him as a starter in the NFL (again, baring injury).
I don't know when, because even guys like Steve Young or Rodgers, or Brees still had to wait for their days.

For things to run normally (no set-back between now and draft day, more specifically, an injury), we can have a friendly wager regarding whether Keenum will be drafted in the first round.
If you lose you need to find an UH avatar (or you can borrow gwallaia' sig) to wear for a month.

You can name your wager of some sort; perhaps you may have a better idea?!?

76Texan
02-20-2012, 02:22 AM
On a side note, it's exciting time for me to talk about these three boys.

Luck is the hometown boy.
Keenum is from my Coogs.
RG III was to attend UH (Art Briles had recruited him).
When Briles took the Baylor job, I was happy for both of them.
I was confident that he (Briles - who is also a Cougar) will show people that his "gadget system" of an offense can score big in the Big 12 once he adds some recruits (that will come once you build it).
It was very logical for me that RG III followed Briles to Baylor.
I started adding Baylor to my watch-list then.
I knew about RG III long before many many Houstonians.
I was excited waiting for him to play for the Coogs but I had no bitterness when he followed Briles to Waco.
I cheered for RG III against Big 12 opponents.
Not because I was bitter about the old SWC break-up, but rather because - as I've said earlier - people was doubting Briles' offensive system.
The same system that RG III had been running, which is very similar to what the Coogs have been running even after Briles left.

The same system that gave Keenum the "system QB" label, but not RG III.

And when I say that Keenum runs that system better than RG III, people think I'm crazy.

It's pretty funny especially considering how so many people also has Wright as a top tier prospect.

Better receiver, better O-line, better defense.
Them too (RG III and Keenum) faced roughly the same level of defense, but Keenum's better numbers is a product of the system and he is but a third day prospect while RG III is regarded as the #2 QB prospect and his production is legit.

Funny, too funny!

Corrosion
02-20-2012, 06:06 AM
Brees and Keenumlook a lot alike statistically ....But Brees has an uncanny knack of escaping pressure. Thats what makes him a top tier Qb in the NFL.

Keenum has some gaudy stats , especially those TD/Int numbers , but I wouldnt take him before the 4th round.


His being 26 means he's a very seasoned player .... most 1st rounders are drafted on upside , his is limited.


(I do believe he canand will be a solid NFL starter , just not a 1st round talent).

gwallaia
02-20-2012, 12:29 PM
Keenum is 24.

TimeKiller
02-23-2012, 12:16 PM
Keenum in the 2nd....

I sure hope so, that means someone else will drop to the Texans.

Doppelganger
02-23-2012, 04:22 PM
Here are 20 reasons I wouldn't touch Keenum before the 6th.

Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan, Ty Detmer, Dan LeFevour, Tim Rattay, Ryan Lindley, Luke McCown, Chris Redman, Chase Daniel, Trevor Vittatoe, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Holbrook, David Greene, Gino Guidugli, Todd Santos, Max Hall, Tim Hiller, Tim Lester, and Chris Leak.

76Texan
02-23-2012, 06:55 PM
Here are 20 reasons I wouldn't touch Keenum before the 6th.

Timmy Chang, Graham Harrell, Colt Brennan, Ty Detmer, Dan LeFevour, Tim Rattay, Ryan Lindley, Luke McCown, Chris Redman, Chase Daniel, Trevor Vittatoe, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Holbrook, David Greene, Gino Guidugli, Todd Santos, Max Hall, Tim Hiller, Tim Lester, and Chris Leak.

By the same reasoning, RGIII should be rated as a 7th rounder or UDFA. http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

76Texan
02-23-2012, 10:41 PM
Go back and look at the QBs "projected" to be drafted in the first 3 rounds.
Go back and look and some of the QBs that were drafted that early in the last few years.

Keenum had a common opponent with several of them, including:
Tebow, Pat White, McCoy, Dalton, Luck, RG III, Weeden, Tannerhill, etc.
In each case, Keenum put up a comparable or better performance against those opponents.

And nobody can say that Keenum had a better supporting cast (including his defense) than those QBs.

76Texan
02-23-2012, 11:21 PM
Also, one needs to remember that Keenum finished his nights early in several games.

The two late games vs Penn St and S. Miss notwithstanding, there were 3 close games against UCLA, La Tech, and UTEP that he had to finish the game; otherwise he would be taken out (even as early as midway thru the third quarter in two games.)

Ga St 7:38 third qtr
Tulane 6:31 third qtr

North Texas 13:47
E. Car. 14:39
Marshal 12:08
Rice 10:18
UAB 10:45
SMU 4:10

And don't forget that because the Cougars scored so quickly, there were several games - most of them on the first half of the season - the TOP was very lopsided; a few games were as ridiculous as 1:2 (ie, the Cougars offense was on the field but some 20 mins as opposed to nearly 40 mins for the opponents.)

thunderkyss
02-24-2012, 08:38 AM
Go back and look at the QBs "projected" to be drafted in the first 3 rounds.
Go back and look and some of the QBs that were drafted that early in the last few years.

Keenum had a common opponent with several of them, including:
Tebow, Pat White, McCoy, Dalton, Luck, RG III, Weeden, Tannerhill, etc.
In each case, Keenum put up a comparable or better performance against those opponents.

And nobody can say that Keenum had a better supporting cast (including his defense) than those QBs.

Yeah but.....




Can we keep it our little secret? Snag him in the 4th or 5th since he isn't on anyone else's radar?

Rey
02-24-2012, 09:58 AM
Go back and look at the QBs "projected" to be drafted in the first 3 rounds.
Go back and look and some of the QBs that were drafted that early in the last few years.

Keenum had a common opponent with several of them, including:
Tebow, Pat White, McCoy, Dalton, Luck, RG III, Weeden, Tannerhill, etc.
In each case, Keenum put up a comparable or better performance against those opponents.

And nobody can say that Keenum had a better supporting cast (including his defense) than those QBs.

Keenum may end up being better than some or all of those guys, but to say that he put up comparable numbers means nothing.

A lot of those teams ran the ball a lot more than UH did. Different offenses are more conducive to putting up different kind of stats.

Not only that, but the pace of most of those offenses is different. The schemes and the way players were used is different as well...

76Texan
02-24-2012, 02:05 PM
Keenum may end up being better than some or all of those guys, but to say that he put up comparable numbers means nothing.

A lot of those teams ran the ball a lot more than UH did. Different offenses are more conducive to putting up different kind of stats.

Not only that, but the pace of most of those offenses is different. The schemes and the way players were used is different as well...

But the things you mention actually make a better case for Keenum.

1. If you read the S.Miss game break-down, you would see that the Coogs running game should have done better since the Golden Eagles moved defenders off the line to better defend the pass.
Look at all the failed third-down conversions; they were all due to the subpar running game (or a drop pass).
Remember that S. Miss was still able to bring pressure (under 3 secs) with a 4-man or 3-man rush.
When the running game can mustard only 55 yards on 31 attempts, does it help the QB?

2. A fast-paced (often time, a no huddle offense) helps prepare the QB for the NFL. When a guy can make many consecutive calls by himself or with some quick signal from the side line, it shows that he has complete command of the playbook. (And trust me, the playbook wasn't simple - there was a game where a commentator mentioned that the Coogs kept throwing out different plays one after another.) When you need a two-minute drill or when your team is down by a bunch and you need a guy who can operate fast, this is the guy.

...

I've already mentioned how Luck also benefited from the "system".
The PA with a strong running game in the WCO helped Luck just as it does Schaub (when the running game works well.)

The fact that Baylor ran more was due to Briles wanting to exploit the explosiveness of RG III. His running abilty opens up more opportunity in the passing game.
His potential is scary. If he can learn to improve the mental part of the game (pre-snap and post-snap reads, knowing where the pressure might come from, whether the defense is disguising coverage) he will be very dangerous.
The million-dollar question is how much can he improve.
His potential is a cut somewhere between Vick and Newton.

...
Back to Keenum, his ceiling has pretty much been reached.
He just needs to learn even more coverage disguises and to adapt to a faster defense (on occasions.)

Why do I say "on occasions"?
In college, he's already used to see his protection breaking down, pocket collapsing, lineman getting beat right off the bat.
In the pro, he will have a better O-line to compensate for faster D-linemen and blitzers.
The fact that Keenum didn't incur more sack was due to his ability to see the things mentioned above such that he can get rid of the ball very quickly.
The fact that he didn't have many passes batted down was due to his ability to vary his look (as not to telegraph his throw.)

If I was to compare Keenum with Luck, I would mention the common opponent: UCLA.
Keenum was under pressure left and right, while Luck had only a handful (you can count it with one hand.)
Or we can see the S. Miss game with all that pressure on Keenum, or the Penn St. game where he was under duress some 27 times.
On the other hand, against Notre Dame, for example, Luck was under pressure a total of 4 lousy occasions.

With a better receiving corp (faster, bigger, stronger), one that doesn't drop many passes, Keenum will remain an effective QB.
There will be instances where his size may hurt him, but there will be times when his receivers' size will help him.

Keenum may never become the next Drew Brees, but that potential is there.
You can isolate plays where the Coogs line up in the same formations as the Colts or the Saints or the Pats (or any other pro team or college team) and you will see many of the same passing patterns.
The Frogs, the Bears, and the Cowboys (Okl. St.) are some of those college teams. You can see how Keenum ran it better than Dalton, RG III and Weeden.

(Also, the are some videos out there that showed Keenum making play from under Center as well.)

In summary, the numbers by themselves mean little. How a QB goes about achieving those numbers is the key to evaluate a QB.

Keenum would have been very successful the same (more likely better) if he was on the Bears or the Cowboys squad last year.

Playoffs
02-26-2012, 12:43 PM
Evan Silva ‏ @evansilva Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
CBS Sports' @RobRang on #Houston QB Case Keenum: "May have an uphill climb ahead of him to get drafted

PapaL
02-26-2012, 01:21 PM
Evan Silva ‏ @evansilva Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
CBS Sports' @RobRang on #Houston QB Case Keenum: "May have an uphill climb ahead of him to get drafted

That's a mighty steep fall from #1 overall to uphill climb to get drafted.

Texn4life
02-26-2012, 06:38 PM
Keenum didn't look very good at all today. It really just looks like he doesn't have enough arm strength to make certain throws. Anything outside the numbers is going to be a huge risk of getting picked off because of this. I'm rooting like hell for the kid though to bounce back and have a huge pro day. He just looked completely out of sorts today.

Lucky
02-26-2012, 10:03 PM
He just looked completely out of sorts today.
Wasn't a good setting for Keenum. In fact, none of the QBs looked really good. Jefferson might have been the best, and we've seen him suck for 4 years.

Outside of Luck & Griffin, this is a weak QB draft. I still think someone takes Keenum on the 3rd day. I think he'd be a good fit in Green Bay, who will be looking for a young backup.

76Texan
02-26-2012, 10:58 PM
If you listen to Rob Rang, your team would have the following QBs in the last four years:
2011 - Gabbert as a top ten pick (yeah right)
2010 - Jimmy Clausen as a top ten pick (see above)
2009 - Sanchez in the first round (open for debate)
2008 - Brian Brohm in the first round (hardly play, I think he's out of the NFL - bust)

76Texan
02-26-2012, 11:10 PM
Keenum didn't look very good at all today. It really just looks like he doesn't have enough arm strength to make certain throws. Anything outside the numbers isn't going to be a huge risk of getting picked off because of this. I'm rooting like hell for the kid though to bounce back and have a huge pro day. He just looked completely out of sorts today.

Keenum was never known to have a big arm, but he can throw about as far as Yates (and a little farther than Schaub), roughly 50 yards (from the LOS - which as about 60 in the air.)

If a guy can overthrow a WR who runs somewhere around 4.44 (average for Edwards, who didn't run at the combine - seems like the hamstring or whatever that bothers him at the Sr Bowl practices still lingers), there's no reason to worry about his arm strength.
And we're talking about a straight fly route down the side line (free release).

The combine is not a place to watch a QB showcasing his arm; we'd have to wait for his pro day.

Personally, I don't need to. I know what Keenum's accurcacy is on any route.
You watch him throw a thousand times (he had some 2,229 career attempts), you would know too.

Texn4life
02-26-2012, 11:37 PM
[QUOTE=76Texan;1905771]Keenum was never known to have a big arm, but he can throw about as far as Yates (and a little farther than Schaub), roughly 50 yards (from the LOS - which as about 60 in the air.)

If a guy can overthrow a WR who runs somewhere around 4.44 (average for Edwards, who didn't run at the combine - seems like the hamstring or whatever that bothers him at the Sr Bowl practices still lingers), there's no reason to worry about his arm strength.
And we're talking about a straight fly route down the side line (free release).

The combine is not a place to watch a QB showcasing his arm; we'd have to wait for his pro day.

Personally, I don't need to. I know what Keenum's accurcacy is on any route.
You watch him throw a thousand times (he had some 2,229 career attempts), you would know too.[/QUOTE

I've watched every UH game the past 5 or 6 years that's been on TV plus about 5 home games that weren't on TV so I'm well aware of his limitations.

Like I said where he's going to struggle in the pro game are throws outside of the numbers. Case doesn't have a very strong arm. Case in point is in his last 2 college games of the regular season. He struggled to make longer throws against the wind especially against Southern Miss. While Davis was moving the ball relatively easily through the wind Keenum struggled significantly against it. They tried to adjust their offense by sticking to throwing a lot of the shorter passes, but even the USM coach said he used the wind to his advantage that game knowing Keenum struggles throwing the ball against the wind. He's also not really good throwing the ball with a lot of strength on the move.

Where he is strong like most QB's is when is able to set his feet and throw intermediate routes especially 10-15 yard in cuts. He also is pretty accurate on his deep ball.

While you don't want to judge a lot about someone accuracy wise during the combine because of the lack of familiarity with the receivers there are certain things you can take from it. Mainly because he looked very uncomfortable dropping back and releasing the ball strong and confidently. Case is 6'2 so he's tall enough to be a pro QB, but he lacks the arm strength you would like plain and simple. Yates has a stronger arm than Keenum. Keenum will likely go 6th round to undrafted because he doesn't have the type of arm you can throw in any system. There's no doubt that he can be accurate, but he has limitations to his game that's going to make it hard for him to ever even make it to #2 on the depth chart of a team.

I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I've seen the kid enough to know his game. He's a competitor and I want to see him succeed but I have to be honest about the situation as well.

Texn4life
02-26-2012, 11:47 PM
Wasn't a good setting for Keenum. In fact, none of the QBs looked really good. Jefferson might have been the best, and we've seen him suck for 4 years.

Outside of Luck & Griffin, this is a weak QB draft. I still think someone takes Keenum on the 3rd day. I think he'd be a good fit in Green Bay, who will be looking for a young backup.


Case's lack of arm strength just really stood out on the out routes he was throwing. I agree it wasn't a good setting for him, but that's why they ask the QB's to throw those routes. It kind of exposes some things about them if they lack in this area. In the right West Coast offense he can make a team and be a long term backup, but I think that's about the extent of what he'll be able to do. I love the way Kolb was groomed by Andy Reid and I'd like to see Case go to a similar situation.

I don't think Green Bay is a good offense for him personally. They ask for their QB's to drive the ball down the field and I think that would expose his lack of arm strength more than anything. In college he was able to get away with a lot because guys were running wide open in that offense. We all know things aren't going to be like that at the next level. I love the way San Francisco used Alex Smith this year. To me that would be a pretty good place for him. He wasn't asked to make a lot of difficult throws and they got the ball out quick. The only thing is they drafted a young QB last year, but he needs to go to a place where the couch realizes what he can do well and play to it.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:05 AM
I just went back to check my own thread (breaking down of the S. Miss game, in this same subforum - you probably missed it.)

Keenum did not attempt any pass longer than 29 yards due to:
- Coverage scheme taking Edwards and any deep route (that I can see from the TV screen)
- Constant pressure with either 3 or 4 man pass rush.

There are a few highlights out there showing Keenum completed nice passes downfield on the run.
I have a bunch of highlights bookmarked, but I don't think I want to spend the time digging for throws on the run.

If you want to, I can provide all the link and you can look for yourself.

Lucky
02-27-2012, 12:05 AM
I don't think Green Bay is a good offense for him personally. They ask for their QB's to drive the ball down the field and I think that would expose his lack of arm strength more than anything.
Aaron Rodgers drives the ball down the field, but Matt Flynn has a very average arm. He runs that offense almost as well. At its roots, Green Bay still runs a West Coast offense based on timing. If Keenum gets the ball out on time, he's fine.

The combine didn't even expose what I believe to be Keenum's biggest weakness. I think he has real trouble with pressure up the middle and is too quick to bring the ball down rather than slide in the pocket. It probably has a lot to do with his size and inability to see over the rush. That's another reason why I think he should go to a team that moves the pocket around. Like the Packers do.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:16 AM
In his last collegiate game, against Penn St., Keenum "struggled" to the tune of 532 yards in net passing whie facing nearly similar pressure (27 times as I had mentioned earlier.)
And by pressure, I mean that the QB has to get the ball out of his hand in less than 2-3/4 of a second or the pass rush will be on top of him
That's the maximum time, if the QB holds the ball longer than that, then it's entirely his fault.
Obviously, there were times pressure got there (or almost got there) sooner that that (as little as just a tad more than one sec.)

I'll take that struggling QB any day of the year.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:18 AM
Aaron Rodgers drives the ball down the field, but Matt Flynn has a very average arm. He runs that offense almost as well. At its roots, Green Bay still runs a West Coast offense based on timing. If Keenum gets the ball out on time, he's fine.

The combine didn't even expose what I believe to be Keenum's biggest weakness. I think he has real trouble with pressure up the middle and is too quick to bring the ball down rather than slide in the pocket. It probably has a lot to do with his size and inability to see over the rush. That's another reason why I think he should go to a team that moves the pocket around. Like the Packers do.I have to disagree with this.

Luck and RG III are the two who didn't do well in this area last year.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 12:26 AM
In his last collegiate game, against Penn St., Keenum "struggled" to the tune of 532 yards in net passing whie facing nearly similar pressure (27 times as I had mentioned earlier.)
And by pressure, I mean that the QB has to get the ball out of his hand in less than 2-3/4 of a second or the pass rush will be on top of him
That's the maximum time, if the QB holds the ball longer than that, then it's entirely his fault.
Obviously, there were times pressure got there (or almost got there) sooner that that (as little as just a tad more than one sec.)

I'll take that struggling QB any day of the year.

And in the biggest game of his life against a USM team who lost to a pitiful UAB. A game that if its won could have made him a Heisman finalist and led his team to a BCS game he went 41/67 with 2 TD and 2 INT outplayed by Austin Davis. See I can play this game too.

Look, I like the kid but I don't ignore facts. He's going to have the same problem that the Texas Tech QB's have had for years.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 12:33 AM
Aaron Rodgers drives the ball down the field, but Matt Flynn has a very average arm. He runs that offense almost as well. At its roots, Green Bay still runs a West Coast offense based on timing. If Keenum gets the ball out on time, he's fine.

The combine didn't even expose what I believe to be Keenum's biggest weakness. I think he has real trouble with pressure up the middle and is too quick to bring the ball down rather than slide in the pocket. It probably has a lot to do with his size and inability to see over the rush. That's another reason why I think he should go to a team that moves the pocket around. Like the Packers do.

Matt Flynn has a stronger arm than I think a lot of people give him credit for. Its not a major strength of his, but I don't think its a weakness either. They're still able to run a lot of the same things in their offense they run with Rodgers.

As for Keenum's pocket presence I'm not sure I agree with that. He seems to have much better pocket presence than a lot of QB's who run a shotgun spread. Blaine Gabbert is someone I said would struggle coming out of UM and that's exactly what happened. His pocket presence is terrible. Keenum is actually better in the pocket than Kolb was as this point in their UH careers in my opinion. Kolb did a lot of what Gabbert did in college which is see "ghost" pressure and immediately run backwards out of the pocket and to their right taking their receivers out of the play. Keenum tends to make some decent plays at time after facing pressure.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 12:36 AM
I just went back to check my own thread (breaking down of the S. Miss game, in this same subforum - you probably missed it.)

Keenum did not attempt any pass longer than 29 yards due to:
- Coverage scheme taking Edwards and any deep route (that I can see from the TV screen)
- Constant pressure with either 3 or 4 man pass rush.

There are a few highlights out there showing Keenum completed nice passes downfield on the run.
I have a bunch of highlights bookmarked, but I don't think I want to spend the time digging for throws on the run.

If you want to, I can provide all the link and you can look for yourself.

No need...... I watched the game and if you want to go back and watch the game yourself you'll see exactly what I talked about. The majority of his yards came throwing with the wind. He struggled throwing against the wind and USM knew that he may face some problems because he struggled at times against the wind the previous game against Tulsa. Fedora gave a radio interview right after the game where he went into detail about this.

Also I can show you plenty of throws where he was terrible throwing on the run. Go back and watch the ECU game his junior year and and the following game against Air Force. They picked him off I think about 6 times during those games forcing him into mistakes. A few of those were on the run.

steelbtexan
02-27-2012, 12:37 AM
Keenum=McCoy IMHO

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:39 AM
And in the biggest game of his life against a USM team who lost to a pitiful UAB. A game that if its won could have made him a Heisman finalist and led his team to a BCS game he went 41/67 with 2 TD and 2 INT outplayed by Austin Davis. See I can play this game too.

Look, I like the kid but I don't ignore facts. He's going to have the same problem that the Texas Tech QB's have had for years.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=89651

This is the thread where I broke down the game.
Tell me on which play you think Keenum should have or could have done better and I'll be glad to upload some screen shots to photobucket.com

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:42 AM
No need...... I watched the game and if you want to go back and watch the game yourself you'll see exactly what I talked about. The majority of his yards came throwing with the wind. He struggled throwing against the wind and USM knew that he may face some problems because he struggled at times against the wind the previous game against Tulsa. Fedora gave a radio interview right after the game where he went into detail about this.

Also I can show you plenty of throws where he was terrible throwing on the run. Go back and watch the ECU game his junior year and and the following game against Air Force. They picked him off I think about 6 times during those games forcing him into mistakes. A few of those were on the run.

How does a QB struggle when he never even attempt such passes?
The Golden Eagles dropped 7-8 men back into coverage, taking away the deep throws.
Keenum only attempted a 29 yd pass that a receiver dropped (he could have ran for a TD- I believe it was Carrier.)

And why would we want to go back 3 years ago to evaluate a QB?

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 12:45 AM
Correction I went back and he threw 9 INT's his full junior season the last 2 games against ECU and Air Force. Most of those were on the run. I'll check out your game breakdown tomorrow.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 12:49 AM
How does a QB struggle when he never even attempt such passes?
The Golden Eagles dropped 7-8 men back into coverage, taking away the deep throws.
Keenum only attempted a 29 yd pass that a receiver dropped (he could have ran for a TD- I believe it was Carrier.)

I remember that play and yes it would've been a TD. But your breakdown doesn't include video or screen shots. If that's the case then I'll get a copy of the game and watch it again myself. Teams dropped 7-8 men into coverage against UH all year. You really think that's the first time they've seen that this year? lol Tulsa did the same thing against them the previous game and they had a better defense statistically. The reason they weren't successful against USM was because they were unable to sustain drives against the wind. Case threw some terrible balls against the wind that he normally makes in good weather. I'll get a copy of the game and break it down based on that.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:58 AM
No need...... I watched the game and if you want to go back and watch the game yourself you'll see exactly what I talked about. The majority of his yards came throwing with the wind. He struggled throwing against the wind and USM knew that he may face some problems because he struggled at times against the wind the previous game against Tulsa. Fedora gave a radio interview right after the game where he went into detail about this.

Keenum struggled so much against Tulsa, he netted 457 yards with 5 TDs and no INT.

I'm flabbergasted as to how you come up with these ideas.
I did watch the Tulsa game, but I will go back and watch all those 13 incompletions to see exactly where he "struggled".

I must have missed them and only saw the 33 completions. http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

76Texan
02-27-2012, 12:59 AM
I remember that play and yes it would've been a TD. But your breakdown doesn't include video or screen shots. If that's the case then I'll get a copy of the game and watch it again myself. Teams dropped 7-8 men into coverage against UH all year. You really think that's the first time they've seen that this year? lol Tulsa did the same thing against them the previous game and they had a better defense statistically. The reason they weren't successful against USM was because they were unable to sustain drives against the wind. Case threw some terrible balls against the wind that he normally makes in good weather. I'll get a copy of the game and break it down based on that.

Please do, I'm all ears.

Teams varied their coverage.
Sometimes, like Rice, they could show cover 2 and tried to bring a safety down into the box or to play the slot and got burned.
Sometimes they tried a 5 or 6-man blitz and got burned.

S. Miss were able to bring pressure all game long with just 4 (and sometimes 3).

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 01:05 AM
1st QTR against the wind: 24 plays for 64 yards.
3rd QTR against the wind: 23 plays for 97 yards.

Thats 47 plays for 161 yards for 3.4 yards a play

2nd QTR with the wind: 19 plays for 135 yards.
4th QTR with the wind: 32 plays for 135 yards.

Thats 51 plays for 270 yards for 5.2 yards a play


That 1st QTR is what killed them. Like I said I'll go back and watch the game again and get a QTR breakdown for Case's stats per quarter, but he struggled throwing against the wind plain and simple.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 01:11 AM
1st QTR against the wind: 24 plays for 64 yards.
3rd QTR against the wind: 23 plays for 97 yards.

Thats 47 plays for 161 yards for 3.4 yards a play

2nd QTR with the wind: 19 plays for 135 yards.
4th QTR with the wind: 32 plays for 135 yards.

Thats 51 plays for 270 yards for 5.2 yards a play


That 1st QTR is what killed them. Like I said I'll go back and watch the game again and get a QTR breakdown for Case's stats per quarter, but he struggled throwing against the wind plain and simple.

So the wind caused receivers to drop passes?
So the wind caused a safety to hold a receiver (slighlty and got away with it)?
So the wind forced Keenum to throw the ball away?
And the wind shut down the RBs in the ground game too?

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 01:12 AM
Keenum struggled so much against Tulsa, he netted 457 yards with 5 TDs and no INT.

I'm flabbergasted as to how you come up with these ideas.
I did watch the Tulsa game, but I will go back and watch all those 13 incompletions to see exactly where he "struggled".

I must have missed them and only saw the 33 completions. http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

Against the wind...... You do realize the type of offense that UH runs correct? A lot of those yards against Tulsa came out of the short passing game and screen game. He struggled throwing the ball against the wind in both games. I'm not going to sit here and go back and forth with you because I remember the games clearly. They choked down their offense much of that Tulsa game throwing against the wind to get Case a lot of short easy passes and let guys run with it. At times when he tried to force the ball through the wind he struggled with that. But your little precious stats wouldn't tell you that. Get out of here with that crap. I remember both games clearly and that was a point of emphasis being told even by the announcers of those games.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 01:15 AM
So the wind caused receivers to drop passes?
So the wind caused a safety to hold a receiver (slighlty and got away with it)?
So the wind forced Keenum to throw the ball away?

Dude, if you think that was the UH offense that they normally run in the QTRS that game then I don't know what to tell you. They completely changed their whole passing game and play calling because of the wind factor. You can ignore that if you want, but I know better having seen them play a bunch over the years. But either way, I'm done with you for now. People who are so closed minded make my head hurt.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 01:25 AM
Dude, if you think that was the UH offense that they normally run in the QTRS that game then I don't know what to tell you. They completely changed their whole passing game and play calling because of the wind factor. You can ignore that if you want, but I know better having seen them play a bunch over the years. But either way, I'm done with you for now. People who are so closed minded make my head hurt.

Go back and show me a receiver open downfield and tell me I'm close-minded.
Go back and watch the game and tell me the pressure wasn't there.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 01:29 AM
Go back and show me a receiver open downfield and tell me I'm close-minded.
Go back and watch the game and tell me the pressure wasn't there.

Like I said I'll get to it tomorrow. Its past midnight. Unlike some people I do have a life so watching film isn't what I do for a living. I just get it right the first time.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 01:31 AM
And Keenum struggled so much with the wind (on top of the rain) to put up a record-setting day against the Rice Owls! :gun:

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 01:35 AM
And Keenum struggled so much with the wind (on top of the rain) to put up a record-setting day against the Rice Owls! :gun:

That might be a good idea if you think Keenum did that against the wind and rain. The weather settled down allowing him to have a record day. He was turning the ball over to Rice giving them an easy touchdown while it was so bad so your smilie might be pretty accurate of what you should do if you think the weather was bad that entire game. P.S. I was there for the record.

Texn4life
02-27-2012, 01:45 AM
Houston QB #7 Case Keenum, who struggled with the windy conditions of the Armed Forces Bowl in 2010 (TCU’s Amon Carter Stadium), doesn’t look imposing versus these conditions in the first quarter.

That was apparent Sunday at the Scouting Combine. One of the big knocks on Keenum is his lack of arm strength, which came into full focus during drills. His passes lacked zip and were too slow getting to receivers.

NFL teams understand the timing between quarterbacks and receivers is challenge because of a lack familiarity at the Combine, but that was far from Keenum’s biggest issue. Too often his passes would dip before getting to the target. Receivers often had to slow up and wait for the ball.

While we believe arm strength is the most overrated piece of the quarterback evaluation process, it's necessary to be at a minimum level. Keenum’s lack of zip affected his accuracy, which is a big issue.

The pocket presence, poise and good decision-making Keenum displayed at Houston aren't enough for him to overcome his size (just under 6-1), lack of arm strength and accuracy.

His performance Sunday showed that while Keenum may find a way to stick in the NFL as a backup, teams shouldn't spend a draft pick to get him.



http://www.draftnasty.com/football/articles/c-usa-championship-davis-law-spoil-houston-s-bcs-dreams/

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-02-26/case-keenum-disappoints-in-throwing-drills

76Texan
02-27-2012, 01:37 PM
"I've seen Case throw in person and I've been impressed," said Chris Mortensen, an NFL analyst for ESPN.

Looking more into the offensive system is needed to make an accurate evaluation, Mortensen added.

"We may think we know what the system was, but let's learn it a little better," Mortensen said. "What were his reads? What were the advantages he gave you in the system?"

Keenum had the ability to check out of plays from the shotgun formation at Houston.

"What was on my shoulders at Houston, I can guarantee was a lot more than college offenses across the nation," he said. "I had the ability to check to any route I wanted to on any play — run or pass. I probably checked over half of the runs and a lot of the pass plays were checks, as well. I was just getting on the same page with the coaches and seeing the defense through their eyes."

Keenum interviewed with Atlanta, Chicago, Denver and San Diego, among other unconfirmed teams (at least ten) during his four-day stay at the combine.

...

Keenum will join Jon Gruden on Tue April 17 at his annual ESPN QB Camp (a series in which Gruden goes through diifferent aspects of the game with 10 QBs.)

76Texan
02-27-2012, 01:40 PM
No need...... I watched the game and if you want to go back and watch the game yourself you'll see exactly what I talked about. The majority of his yards came throwing with the wind. He struggled throwing against the wind and USM knew that he may face some problems because he struggled at times against the wind the previous game against Tulsa. Fedora gave a radio interview right after the game where he went into detail about this.

Also I can show you plenty of throws where he was terrible throwing on the run. Go back and watch the ECU game his junior year and and the following game against Air Force. They picked him off I think about 6 times during those games forcing him into mistakes. A few of those were on the run.

Keenum struggled so much against Tulsa, he netted 457 yards with 5 TDs and no INT.

I'm flabbergasted as to how you come up with these ideas.
I did watch the Tulsa game, but I will go back and watch all those 13 incompletions to see exactly where he "struggled".

I must have missed them and only saw the 33 completions. http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif
I did go back to review the Tulsa game, and will bring up the 13 incompletions soon.

The claim that Keenum struggled against the wind is bogus at best!

thunderkyss
02-27-2012, 06:09 PM
Keenum was never known to have a big arm, but he can throw about as far as Yates (and a little farther than Schaub), roughly 50 yards (from the LOS - which as about 60 in the air.)


To me, arm strength is important, when the play breaks down. First, he's got to have enough arm strength that when he throws the ball off his back foot, or with both feet off the ground, or where ever his feet may be while he's adlibing & in a fraction of a second, he decides to stop & throw the ball. QBs aren't supposed to do those things, throw off their back foot, push it, or whatever, but you've seen them do it. All of them. At one time or another, the situation is going to arrive & he's going to have to throw the ball under less than perfect conditions.

Another thing, when the play breaks down. Usually when the QB approaches the LOS, the defense breaks to him, leaving big gaps on the back side of the field. It's nice to have a QB who can make them pay for that mistake. A big arm, that doesn't require a lot of air under the ball to travel great distances, gets the ball down field without giving the DBs time to readjust & get into position.

A big arm is not necessary to be successful in the NFL, but it's nice. It's also more about technique, throwing motion, body rotation etc... than it is about muscle strength.

thunderkyss
02-27-2012, 06:17 PM
Keenum=McCoy IMHO

Maybe I'm a homer (even though I don't follow UT) but I still like McCoy.

I understand you don't "pass" on a player like RGIII, I also don't think you should sell out to get that talent. I wouldn't trade up if I were Cleveland to get him.

They've got more issues than QB. I think they should stay put & pick Blackmon, Richardson, Coples or DeCastro. I think it's imperative to get some skill players around McCoy.

Rey
02-27-2012, 06:34 PM
The main thing that watching game film in slow mo is good for is seeing technique. Where your feet where in relation to one another, where your hands were...ect....

All of this frame by frame stuff and writing your own narrative of what a player saw and was thinking is just not realistic.

You can pause the tape in certain spots and say "what were you thinking when you saw this right here or right there", but watching film frame by frame or in slow mo just leaves room for you to write your own narrative.

76Texan
02-27-2012, 06:44 PM
The main thing that watching game film in slow mo is good for is seeing technique. Where your feet where in relation to one another, where your hands were...ect....

All of this frame by frame stuff and writing your own narrative of what a player saw and was thinking is just not realistic.

You can pause the tape in certain spots and say "what were you thinking when you saw this right here or right there", but watching film frame by frame or in slow mo just leaves room for you to write your own narrative.

So your point is that Keenum found the open receiver just by being lucky?

What is it that you think that Keenum can't do that won't make him become an NFL starter?

76Texan
02-27-2012, 06:54 PM
The main thing that watching game film in slow mo is good for is seeing technique. Where your feet where in relation to one another, where your hands were...ect....

All of this frame by frame stuff and writing your own narrative of what a player saw and was thinking is just not realistic.

You can pause the tape in certain spots and say "what were you thinking when you saw this right here or right there", but watching film frame by frame or in slow mo just leaves room for you to write your own narrative.



Like when I said I had doubt about Wright as a first rounder, I cited that I'm not sure he's qualified as a speedster. And so far, there's still no official source that can prove he's a speedster (running the 40 in 4.35-4.39 for an average of 4.37 or less). I have certain criteria and I provide it (them); what are yours?

76Texan
02-27-2012, 07:01 PM
To me, arm strength is important, when the play breaks down. First, he's got to have enough arm strength that when he throws the ball off his back foot, or with both feet off the ground, or where ever his feet may be while he's adlibing & in a fraction of a second, he decides to stop & throw the ball. QBs aren't supposed to do those things, throw off their back foot, push it, or whatever, but you've seen them do it. All of them. At one time or another, the situation is going to arrive & he's going to have to throw the ball under less than perfect conditions.

Another thing, when the play breaks down. Usually when the QB approaches the LOS, the defense breaks to him, leaving big gaps on the back side of the field. It's nice to have a QB who can make them pay for that mistake. A big arm, that doesn't require a lot of air under the ball to travel great distances, gets the ball down field without giving the DBs time to readjust & get into position.

A big arm is not necessary to be successful in the NFL, but it's nice. It's also more about technique, throwing motion, body rotation etc... than it is about muscle strength.

I'm not sure I followed you, TK.
In the Film break down thread, I've shown plays where Keenum can throw the ball down the side line.

There were fly route, post-corner route, wheel route, you name it.
And they are all the equivalent or better than what Schaubie had shown so far as a veteran.

And there were also throws across the body, throws where he stepped left and throw right (where his feet were basically parallel with the LOS instead of perpendicular as in a normal throw.)

If those don't show arm strength, what does?

thunderkyss
02-27-2012, 08:16 PM
I'm not sure I followed you, TK.
In the Film break down thread, I've shown plays where Keenum can throw the ball down the side line.

There were fly route, post-corner route, wheel route, you name it.
And they are all the equivalent or better than what Schaubie had shown so far as a veteran.

And there were also throws across the body, throws where he stepped left and throw right (where his feet were basically parallel with the LOS instead of perpendicular as in a normal throw.)

If those don't show arm strength, what does?

I didn't comment on Keenum's arm strength.