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View Full Version : How much is too much for Foster?


Marcus
01-23-2012, 09:21 AM
Pay the man!

Of course, they have to pay the man?

But the question is how much, or how much is too much? I'm hearing people say, "Yes, pay the man, but don't go crazy, and pay him Chris Johnson money!"

Well, we all know that's exactly what his agent is going to be asking for, right?

So, how much is too much?

BullNation4Life
01-23-2012, 09:28 AM
Pay the man!

Of course, they have to pay the man?

But the question is how much, or how much is too much? I'm hearing people say, "Yes, pay the man, but don't go crazy, and pay him Chris Johnson money!"

Well, we all know that's exactly what his agent is going to be asking for, right?

So, how much is too much?

Not sure what the exact numbers are but I think somewhere in the middle of Chris Johnson money and Shaun Alexander money should be a nice payday...

rush2112mn
01-23-2012, 10:27 AM
yeah....a running backs life in the NFL is short...how many years does Foster have left? 2, 3...???

Dutchrudder
01-23-2012, 10:32 AM
I don't know that Foster will get AP money from anyone, but I think this is too much to invest in Foster. I'd like to get Foster in the 6-8 million dollar range though. Would require guaranteeing more of the contract to get him that low, but it could be done.

Adrian Peterson Running Back 9/10/2011: Signed a seven-year, $96 million contract. The deal contains $36 million guaranteed, $32 million of which is guaranteed for skill and the other $4 million for injury. Another $4 million is available through escalators. 2011: $8.25 million, 2012: $8 million, 2013: $11.25 million, 2014: $11.75 million, 2015-2017: Under Contract, 2018: Free Agent

silvrhand
01-23-2012, 12:01 PM
I don't know that Foster will get AP money from anyone, but I think this is too much to invest in Foster. I'd like to get Foster in the 6-8 million dollar range though. Would require guaranteeing more of the contract to get him that low, but it could be done.

Adrian Peterson Running Back 9/10/2011: Signed a seven-year, $96 million contract. The deal contains $36 million guaranteed, $32 million of which is guaranteed for skill and the other $4 million for injury. Another $4 million is available through escalators. 2011: $8.25 million, 2012: $8 million, 2013: $11.25 million, 2014: $11.75 million, 2015-2017: Under Contract, 2018: Free Agent

too much IMHO.. 4-6 million per year.

thunderkyss
01-23-2012, 12:01 PM
Well, we all know that's exactly what his agent is going to be asking for, right?

So, how much is too much?

I think that is an excellent question. If I were his agent, I'd take the last contracts of the best running back in the league (not including Arian), which would be MJD (my opinion) & the biggest contract out there (for a RB) I think is CJ2ypc....

If I'm Arian's agent, I'm starting at 15% premium to CJ2ypc.... but as long as I'm closer to CJ2ypc than MJDs, I'd be happy.

DX-TEX
01-23-2012, 12:04 PM
ArianFosterArian Foster





I guess for women it's a little harder to aim...but still. The best place to do it. Besides the pool.

9 minutes ago

I dont know, they guy pees in the pool. That automatically deducts like a million bucks.

badboy
01-23-2012, 12:20 PM
I'd make him an offer like 5 years 40 million with back end loaded to fall under new tv deal and give him $10-15m upfront bonus. I doubt I'd match anything much higher & just go with the draft picks other team loses. Should be a mid range team looking to sign him.
I'm ok either way but like him on roster. Not in mood for any player to try to hold Texans hostage.

kiwitexansfan
01-23-2012, 12:54 PM
Pay him what it takes to keep him, he is the best RB in the NFL.

Unless he is going to get injured then he isn't worth the money.....

Dutchrudder
01-23-2012, 01:52 PM
Alrighty, I got some time to review some contracts. Let's look at CJ's. He signed a 6 yr(s) / $55,260,000 this past offseason after a holdout. PFT does a good job explaining it:

Last week, the Titans signed running back Chris Johnson to a four-year extension, with a new-money average of $13.4 million. The full details, for those interested (all five of you), are now available.

Per a source with knowledge of the deal, Johnson received a $10 million signing bonus, along with a $3 million fully guaranteed base salary in 2011.

In 2012, Johnson will receive a base salary of $8 million. The base salary is guaranteed for injury only at the time of signing. It becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2012 League Year.

The base salary reduces by $250,000 if Johnson doesn’t participate in the team’s offseason workout program. It drops by another $300,000 if he doesn’t rush for 1,000 yards in 2011.

In 2013, Johnson’s salary is $10 million, $9 million of which is guaranteed for injury only now. It becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2013 League Year. The salary drops by $250,000 if he fails to complete the offseason workout program.

In 2014, Johnson’s salary is $8 million, with the same $250,000 de-escalator. Ditto for 2015.

In the final year of the deal, Johnson’s salary will be $7 million, with a $2 million roster bonus due on the seventh day of the 2016 League Year. The base salary can drop by up to $2 million based on rushing yards, along with a potential $250,000 reduction based on participation in offseason workouts.

It works out to a be a six-year, $56 million deal. That’s an average of $9.3 million.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/08/the-full-chris-johnson-contract-breakdown/

AP's deal was 7 yr(s) / $96,000,000 (+ some incentives):
Peterson agreed Saturday to a contract extension with the Vikings that includes $36 million in guaranteed money and as much as $100 million over the next seven years if he plays that long with Minnesota. A league source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter that Peterson will receive $40 million over the first three years of the deal.

Peterson also will get $1 million each time he rushes for at least 1,250 yards, a source familiar with the contract told ESPN's Schefter. Peterson has done that in each of his first four seasons, when the fewest rushing yards he had in any season was 1,298. Under the terms of his contract, Peterson can do this three times for $3 million total. He also has another $1 million in incentives based on the Vikings' regular-season and playoff results over the life of the contract.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6952094/minnesota-vikings-give-adrian-peterson-new-seven-year-100m-deal

So the big differences between these two deals is:
1. The average $ per year 9.3 mill for CJ and about 13.7 mill for AP
2. CJ got a 10 mill signing bonus and AP got none
3. CJ got 30 mill gtd and AP got 36
4. CJ will make 40 million in the first 4 years, wheras AP will make that much in 3 years. So AP gets his money faster, but has a longer deal.
5. Cap hit cuts. AP can be cut or traded outright in year 4 after being paid 40 million for 3 years of service. CJ's cost to the team if cut or traded in the 4th year will be 4 million in 2014 with a total of 31 mill paid to him for 3 years of work. It will still cost the team 2 mill to cut him in 2015 due to his signing bonus, which would make him cost 39 mill for 4 years of work.

So ask yourself if you were a GM, which contract is more friendly to the team and mitigates your risk? Is it better to forego the signing bonus and guarantee more money instead?

I personally like the AP approach to the contract situation because if the RB gets banged up badly down the road, it's easier to cut him. I think it's reasonable to assume at least 3 more years of production out of Foster and probably more, but it's best for the team to have an out if they need to use it. It also means you can trade him down the road without a hit on your cap due to signing bonus acceleration. If we could sign him for a little less than CJ money, 6 years 50 million 32 gtd, but without the big signing bonus, I would be happy with that. I think he's worth 8 million a year + some incentives. I just hope the contract is heavy on incentives like AP's deal.

Dread-Head
01-23-2012, 01:54 PM
I think commedian George Wallace said it best when he said:

"When you pay peanuts you get monkeys."


McNair's choice is to either pay the man or suffer with a half-assed running game and a defense that has to worry about STOPPING Foster when he gets with a new team. Sir if you're reading this...PAY THE MAN...and go back to the playoffs.

b0ng
01-23-2012, 02:00 PM
This team cannot realistically give him a contract like AP's, it'd be insane.

thunderkyss
01-23-2012, 02:15 PM
This team cannot realistically give him a contract like AP's, it'd be insane.

Even CJ's contract is out there in left field..... $9.3M/yr

I was thinking something in the $8M/yr range as pricey, but "worth it"

Chances are his agent is going to want him to be somewhere between APs & Cj's $10M/yr & I don't know how that's going to work with the cap.

For all those guys saying it's going to be MW or Arian, I'm telling you now, I was wrong. We may not be able to sign them both.

thunderkyss
01-23-2012, 02:19 PM
MJD signed a 5 year deal back in 2009 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/maurice-jones-drew/)worth $30.95M, a little over $4M/yr salary, plus almost $10M signing bonus.... roughly $6M/yr

Three years later, you wouldn't think the cost of a franchise RB would have gone from $6M to $11M/yr would you?

That's crazy.

Dutchrudder
01-23-2012, 03:52 PM
MJD signed a 5 year deal back in 2009 (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/maurice-jones-drew/)worth $30.95M, a little over $4M/yr salary, plus almost $10M signing bonus.... roughly $6M/yr

Three years later, you wouldn't think the cost of a franchise RB would have gone from $6M to $11M/yr would you?

That's crazy.

Their average salary calculation is wrong. For his current contract from 2009-2014 the average salary including signing and roster bonus is 8.25 million in cap hit given their numbers. So something is wrong with that. I dug up this article from ESPN back in 2009:

Maurice Jones-Drew agreed Wednesday to an extension that will make him one of the three highest-paid running backs in football.

Jones-Drew signed a four-year extension, that makes for a five-year deal worth $31 million. A $17.5 million signing bonus in guaranteed, sources told ESPN.com.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4070094&campaign=rss&source=NFLHeadlines

Maybe the signing bonus was reported incorrectly? I dunno, but something's not adding up there.

Ryan
01-23-2012, 05:08 PM
yeah....a running backs life in the NFL is short...how many years does Foster have left? 2, 3...???



what? Dude is 25. Has at least 5 or 6 quality years left in him the way he avoids taking big hits.

badboy
01-23-2012, 05:32 PM
Their average salary calculation is wrong. For his current contract from 2009-2014 the average salary including signing and roster bonus is 8.25 million in cap hit given their numbers. So something is wrong with that. I dug up this article from ESPN back in 2009:


http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4070094&campaign=rss&source=NFLHeadlines

Maybe the signing bonus was reported incorrectly? I dunno, but something's not adding up there.31-17.5= 13.5 divide by 5= $2.7 base salary &
17.5 divided by 5= 3.5 + 2.7= $6.2 cap hit. Seems reasonable.

SteveSlaton20
01-23-2012, 05:34 PM
I think we should give him 5 years and $8-10 millions per year is fine. I think about $13m+ a year is too much.

badboy
01-23-2012, 05:46 PM
I think we should give him 5 years and $8-10 millions per year is fine. I think about $13m+ a year is too much.

Not me $8m in first 2 years is too much. Now if he'll agree to say $5m and back end maybe.

EllisUnit
01-23-2012, 05:47 PM
take the average salary of the O-line and times it by 1, thats what we should pay him. He dont get all these big running lanes all by himself ;)

thunderkyss
01-23-2012, 06:04 PM
What teams would give Arian $13M/yr??

Dutchrudder
01-23-2012, 06:06 PM
What teams would give Arian $13M/yr??

The Redskins.

:kitten:

EllisUnit
01-23-2012, 06:18 PM
take the average salary of the O-line and times it by 1, thats what we should pay him. He dont get all these big running lanes all by himself ;)

i already told yall the amount