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View Full Version : Fottball Outsiders HOU/BAL Offensive/Defensive ratings


paycheck71
01-09-2012, 10:06 PM
Football Outsiders have the Texans ranked higher than the Ravens in both defense and offense. This actually gives me some confidence that the Texans may have a decent chance in this game. The pure yardage rankings are pretty much meaningless. What I wish I could see though, is where the Ravens rank in home games vs the Texans in road games.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/week-18-dvoa-ratings

TEXANRED
01-09-2012, 10:13 PM
Football Outsiders have the Texans ranked higher than the Ravens in both defense and offense. This actually gives me some confidence that the Texans may have a decent chance in this game. The pure yardage rankings are pretty much meaningless. What I wish I could see though, is where the Ravens rank in home games vs the Texans in road games.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/week-18-dvoa-ratings

These team are equal with one another. This game comes down to who doesn't make the mistake.

TheMatrix31
01-09-2012, 10:54 PM
Not going to even bother learning the intricacies of that stuff, but cool.

Texans_Chick
01-09-2012, 11:31 PM
Look at these numbers:

Football Outsiders Ravens v. Texans matchup. (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/premium/showMatchup.php?t1=BAL&t2=HOU&week=19&year=2011)

What makes numbers a little peculiar for the Texans is that the offensive numbers are slightly artificially high because of the Schaub games in the mix.

What is also interesting is if you throw out the Wadeless-game and the last game playing with backups, the Texans defensive numbers change. Worst defensive performance of the year was against Carolina. (Who had sick big offensive numbers all year).

DVOA in simple terms looks at play to play efficiency based on opponent and where you are on the field. It factors in game situations. Negative numbers on defense are good, positive numbers for both special teams and offense.

Everybody talks about TJ's play, but Flacco actually has a shorter yards per catch than TJ.

This time of year, you pretty much want to throw out the numbers. On a one game basis--it's a lot about ref calls, ball bounces for turnovers, a catch or a drop here or there.

The Pencil Neck
01-09-2012, 11:33 PM
Look at these numbers:

Football Outsiders Ravens v. Texans matchup. (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/premium/showMatchup.php?t1=BAL&t2=HOU&week=19&year=2011)

You have to be a Premium Member to look at that link.

pickles
01-10-2012, 02:28 AM
Hey all. Ravens fan here. Not to cause trouble but maybe a little smack talk. :)

Anyways, I think the teams are close, but ultimately- big shocker- I think the Ravens will win, because of QB play and homefield.

And, to the OP's link, I don't really see how you can say the HOU offense or defense is better than the Ravens. I think w Schaub, I give the advantage to HOU's offense over the Ravens. Without him, I don't because the great advantage HOU has is a sure to be underutilized Andre Johnson. But I don't really see how you can say Ravens D is in any way or shape inferior to HOU's. I really don't.

Well, anyways, good luck on Sunday. I think you boys are going to need it.

TheMatrix31
01-10-2012, 03:15 AM
They're very equal statistically, and Football Outsiders' numbers and tallies (a pretty good indicator, read the article) have us well above the Ravens defensively.

I think the teams are very evenly matched. If you go by traditional stats, both teams are right there with each other in pretty much every main category. Stats don't tell the whole story though. Talent-wise also equal. Where the Ravens win is experience on defense and, I guess, overall.

Allstar
01-10-2012, 03:33 AM
Win the turnover game, win the football game.

LikeMike
01-10-2012, 06:13 AM
These team are equal with one another. This game comes down to who doesn't make the mistake.

These teams would be equal with one another, if everybody is healthy. As it is right now, Baltimore has the better football team and is playing at home... but that doesn`t mean that we can`t win. Passion, hard work and making the right play at the right time and we are going to the conference championship game.

paycheck71
01-10-2012, 10:34 AM
Look at these numbers:

Football Outsiders Ravens v. Texans matchup. (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/premium/showMatchup.php?t1=BAL&t2=HOU&week=19&year=2011)

What makes numbers a little peculiar for the Texans is that the offensive numbers are slightly artificially high because of the Schaub games in the mix.



Yeah, I don't have premium access, either, but you're absolutely right about the offense. These numbers don't account for the loss of Schaub, but their playoff odds do, and Baltimore odds to win the SB are 10.3% to Houston's 5.9%. Which, I guess, means they're giving the edge to Bal in this game.

We'll see... Like other people suggested, these teams are pretty even overall.

thunderkyss
01-10-2012, 11:22 AM
If Jacoby can bring it like he did last time, then I'd say we're pretty even offensively. If he disappears, then Boldin & Torry gives Baltimore an advantage we can't match with a cautious QB & gimpy Andre.

Even though we held Torry Smith in check the last time, their willingness to stretch the field was the difference.

We need to go deep early & often to keep the running game effective.

Daravenator
01-10-2012, 12:48 PM
I think the big factor on Sunday is going to be that T.J. has never heard so much crowd noise in his life while under center as he is going to hear in this game. I know you guys feel that the Reliant crowd played a hand in getting to Dalton and Cincinnati. Trust me on this: M&T Bank is freakin' LOUD!!!

Other than that, both offenses and defenses are pretty similar. The only difference is a lot more playoff experience on Baltimore's side of the ball. Then again, that didn't make all that much difference in the Steelers-Broncos game, did it?

thunderkyss
01-10-2012, 12:54 PM
Trust me on this: M&T Bank is freakin' LOUD!!!


Good thing we don't audible.

:cow:

The Pencil Neck
01-10-2012, 12:58 PM
Ultimately, we have a 5th round rookie QB starting against a very good defense and the Ravens have a QB who has a 4-3 playoff record going against a very good defense. Both teams can run.

A few funny bounces of the ball and this thing could go either way and it might not even be close. Either team could gain an advantage and blow the game open.

To me, this is the AFC Championship. The Patriots and Broncos have too many weaknesses. I think the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl.

disaacks3
01-10-2012, 12:58 PM
I think the big factor on Sunday is going to be that T.J. has never heard so much crowd noise in his life while under center as he is going to hear in this game. I know you guys feel that the Reliant crowd played a hand in getting to Dalton and Cincinnati. Trust me on this: M&T Bank is freakin' LOUD!!!

Other than that, both offenses and defenses are pretty similar. The only difference is a lot more playoff experience on Baltimore's side of the ball. Then again, that didn't make all that much difference in the Steelers-Broncos game, did it? Somehow I doubt it'll be much louder in Balt than it was for the primetime game in Indy.

TimeKiller
01-10-2012, 01:05 PM
Other than that, both offenses and defenses are pretty similar. The only difference is a lot more playoff experience on Baltimore's side of the ball. Then again, that didn't make all that much difference in the Steelers-Broncos game, did it?

Question about playoff experience....

When most of your experience in the playoffs is losing, how does that make you a "battle tested playoff team"? They haven't made it past the division game since 2008, only to lose the in the conference game. Most of their wins in the recent playoffs were one and done or losing the division game. Now, they aren't the Texans, it wasn't the first playoff game/first playoff win for them so it's not as big as our win was last week. Playoffs are tricky because ultimately all the really, really good teams that make it lose out. Except one. The Ravens have made it (and by all means, please don't take this the wrong way, I think the Ravens have a great team) but tend to lose soon after.

I guess what I'm trying to say is playoff "experience" is a bit overrated. Some extra nerves maybe? Crowd is a little louder? Ray Lewis' face is even funnier? (Ok that WAS a jab lol)

I think this is going to be really good defensive struggle of a game. I do believe that Texans offense is a bit more dynamic than Ravens but Ravens D, despite Ray Lewis making the probowl because he's Ray Lewis, has the edge over the young guns of the south.

ThaJokaa
01-10-2012, 01:50 PM
Both teams are ran the same way. Defense and rushing. Even tho Baltimore sometimes stray away from that and go pass heavy. Its going to comedown to who creates more turnovers.

Daravenator
01-10-2012, 01:52 PM
Question about playoff experience....

When most of your experience in the playoffs is losing, how does that make you a "battle tested playoff team"? They haven't made it past the division game since 2008, only to lose the in the conference game. Most of their wins in the recent playoffs were one and done or losing the division game. Now, they aren't the Texans, it wasn't the first playoff game/first playoff win for them so it's not as big as our win was last week. Playoffs are tricky because ultimately all the really, really good teams that make it lose out. Except one. The Ravens have made it (and by all means, please don't take this the wrong way, I think the Ravens have a great team) but tend to lose soon after.

I guess what I'm trying to say is playoff "experience" is a bit overrated. Some extra nerves maybe? Crowd is a little louder? Ray Lewis' face is even funnier? (Ok that WAS a jab lol)

I think this is going to be really good defensive struggle of a game. I do believe that Texans offense is a bit more dynamic than Ravens but Ravens D, despite Ray Lewis making the probowl because he's Ray Lewis, has the edge over the young guns of the south.

Well, in Flacco and Rice's's first three years they have been to the playoffs three times. They went to the AFCC in 2008/2009 (lost to Steelers, who won SB), to the Divisional in 2009/2010 (lost to Colts, who lost SB) and the Divisional in 2010/2011 (lost to Steelers, who lost SB). So losing three playoff games (they are 4-3 in playoff games, with all 4 W's on the road) against three teams that at least made it to the SB, if not winning it, is doing pretty good in my eyes.

Perki-Perk
01-10-2012, 01:53 PM
To me, this is the AFC Championship. The Patriots and Broncos have too many weaknesses. I think the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl.

I have been telling folks this all week and I completely agree. Nice post Mr. Neck!

Perki-Perk
01-10-2012, 01:57 PM
Well, in Flacco and Rice's's first three years they have been to the playoffs three times. They went to the AFCC in 2008/2009 (lost to Steelers, who won SB), to the Divisional in 2009/2010 (lost to Colts, who lost SB) and the Divisional in 2010/2011 (lost to Steelers, who lost SB). So losing three playoff games (they are 4-3 in playoff games, with all 4 W's on the road) against three teams that at least made it to the SB, if not winning it, is doing pretty good in my eyes.

I really want to negative rep you just for being a Ravens fan this week, but I will refrain. Good look to your team!

Texan_Bill
01-10-2012, 02:00 PM
Somehow I doubt it'll be much louder in Balt than it was for the primetime game in Indy.

Well except for that Ravens fans actually generate their own noise and not pump it in like Indy! :texanbill:

Daravenator
01-10-2012, 02:07 PM
I really want to negative rep you just for being a Ravens fan this week, but I will refrain. Good look to your team!

Go ahead. I post on a Steelers forum all the time. I got thick skin! :roast:

EVOLVIST
01-10-2012, 05:09 PM
Ultimately, we have a 5th round rookie QB starting against a very good defense and the Ravens have a QB who has a 4-3 playoff record going against a very good defense. Both teams can run.

A few funny bounces of the ball and this thing could go either way and it might not even be close. Either team could gain an advantage and blow the game open.

To me, this is the AFC Championship. The Patriots and Broncos have too many weaknesses. I think the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl.

Perfectly said. MSR.

Having said that, if we don't beat the Ravens I hope they do go the big show. I don't like them at all, but I might just give props to the team that beats us this year (if it happens).

disaacks3
01-10-2012, 05:32 PM
Well except for that Ravens fans actually generate their own noise and not pump it in like Indy! :texanbill:

True, but the Ravens didn't design their outdoor haven as an acoustic nightmare like Seattle either.

TJ will have his hands full, that's for sure...I expect the rush will be more of an issue than the noise.

TimeKiller
01-11-2012, 12:32 PM
Well, in Flacco and Rice's's first three years they have been to the playoffs three times. They went to the AFCC in 2008/2009 (lost to Steelers, who won SB), to the Divisional in 2009/2010 (lost to Colts, who lost SB) and the Divisional in 2010/2011 (lost to Steelers, who lost SB). So losing three playoff games (they are 4-3 in playoff games, with all 4 W's on the road) against three teams that at least made it to the SB, if not winning it, is doing pretty good in my eyes.

I know their record, I looked it up because I was curious. I've heard a lot about B-more's playoff experience (and the catch phrase "battle tested playoff team" just irks me for some reason) and I think it's kind of a misnomer. Being in the playoffs consistently is a sign of a consistently good team, with good coaching and high level talent. Believe me, I got respect for the Ravens.

I just think that term, that stupid cliche "battled tested" is really kind of a cover up for a team that gets to the dance....and trips.

If there's anything that us Texans fans need to be worried about, it's not the Ravens past or their experience which, IMO, is mostly falling short of the expectations held by champions. I know you're doing your best to frame it up nicely but I'll ask you this, was it good enough for you? Do you think it was good enough for Ray Lewis and co.? Nay, if we're worried about something it's that defense away from the friendly confines of Reliant stadium.

CloakNNNdagger
01-11-2012, 01:33 PM
TJ will be in a unique status if he can help the Texans walk away with a Sunday victory. The last rookie quarterback to beat the Ravens in Baltimore was Arizona's Jake Plummer at Memorial Stadium on Nov. 23, 1997

Perki-Perk
01-11-2012, 01:40 PM
TJ will be in a unique status if he can help the Texans walk away with a Sunday victory. The last rookie quarterback to beat the Ravens in Baltimore was Arizona's Jake Plummer at Memorial Stadium on Nov. 23, 1997

My goodness, did the Browns relocate that long ago??

Daravenator
01-11-2012, 02:26 PM
I know their record, I looked it up because I was curious. I've heard a lot about B-more's playoff experience (and the catch phrase "battle tested playoff team" just irks me for some reason) and I think it's kind of a misnomer. Being in the playoffs consistently is a sign of a consistently good team, with good coaching and high level talent. Believe me, I got respect for the Ravens.

I just think that term, that stupid cliche "battled tested" is really kind of a cover up for a team that gets to the dance....and trips.

If there's anything that us Texans fans need to be worried about, it's not the Ravens past or their experience which, IMO, is mostly falling short of the expectations held by champions. I know you're doing your best to frame it up nicely but I'll ask you this, was it good enough for you? Do you think it was good enough for Ray Lewis and co.? Nay, if we're worried about something it's that defense away from the friendly confines of Reliant stadium.

I cannot answer for Lewis, but having been an NFL fan for 40+ years has taught me one thing: fans take losses worse than players.

Good enough for me? Let me put it this way. The Indianapolis Colts have been the Texans nemesis for a decade. The Steelers are the Ravens nemesis. Every now and again Baltimore has a good year and beats Pittsburgh at least once, sometimes twice. But overall the Steelers just seem to have the Ravens number (in fact, no Baltimore team has ever beaten a Pittsburgh team in the playoffs or championship games. Not the Ravens, not the (Baltimore) Colts, nor the Orioles. Sad, but true. So while losing the AFCC game to Pittsburgh in Flacco's rookie year and last year's Divisional playoff to the Steelers (at Heinz Field) sucked, I can't say I was surprised. The Colts (with Manning at QB) have also been something of a nemesis, but the thing that really sucked about that game is that Indy's defense blew all year...and in that game they played like 75% of the starting D were All-Pros.

Regardless, going to the playoffs four years straight is a lot better than once, twice, or not at all.

TimeKiller
01-11-2012, 02:43 PM
Regardless, going to the playoffs four years straight is a lot better than once, twice, or not at all.

Of course, the achievements, the trophy chest and all, of course that's better. My whole point is just, simply, when the game is played how much of a factor does playoff experience become? The answer, just as simply, is none. It wouldn't matter if the roles were switched either.

Didn't know that little factoid about Baltimore/Pittsburgh either, that's kinda cool in an I-wish-it-wasn't-true sort of way. I hate Pittsburgh, at least we can share that!!

Daravenator
01-11-2012, 02:53 PM
Of course, the achievements, the trophy chest and all, of course that's better. My whole point is just, simply, when the game is played how much of a factor does playoff experience become? The answer, just as simply, is none. It wouldn't matter if the roles were switched either.

Didn't know that little factoid about Baltimore/Pittsburgh either, that's kinda cool in an I-wish-it-wasn't-true sort of way. I hate Pittsburgh, at least we can share that!!

I don't know. I can see where some players might really get that pit-of-the-stomach feeling, knowing that this really is "one and done", and maybe they go overboard and make mental errors by not having their heads in the game. Whereas if you've been there before, maybe you look at it a little differently. It is hard to say, as I sure as hell know I'll never find out first-hand!

I respect the Steelers, but I abhor them and especially their fans. In most fans' eyes, they hope their team wins the SB at the start of every year. Steelers fans expect their team to win it. I just hope they wore out their Terrible Towels after the first play of OT last Sunday. :doot: