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thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 09:55 AM
Belongs to Houston (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false)

AFC South Champ
Wins tie break over New England and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games.


Enjoy it while it lasts boys....

& girls.

HJam72
11-28-2011, 09:57 AM
How does that beat out a head-to-head loss to Baltimore?

Wow, I hate to complain, but that's ridiculous.

pirbroke
11-28-2011, 10:01 AM
How does that beat out a head-to-head loss to Baltimore?

Wow, I hate to complain, but that's ridiculous.

agree, that does not sound right, not sure though

HOU-TEX
11-28-2011, 10:05 AM
Who really cares about seeding at this point? I just want to get in

Thorn
11-28-2011, 10:06 AM
How does that beat out a head-to-head loss to Baltimore?

Wow, I hate to complain, but that's ridiculous.

It doesn't beat out the head to head loss to Baltimore. Something is amiss here.......

In a tie, head to head record is the 1st thing they go to, so Baltimore is above us.

dream_team
11-28-2011, 10:11 AM
But ESPN did say last night "if season ended today, texans would be the #1 seed".

HJam72
11-28-2011, 10:12 AM
If we somehow really get the #1 seed, they should just give us a freaking bye to the Superbowl, LOL.

TejasTom
11-28-2011, 10:13 AM
See here http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

HJam72
11-28-2011, 10:16 AM
Well, whatever. At least we can say we were #1 12 weeks in with a 3rd string QB, LOL. :cow:

ChampionTexan
11-28-2011, 10:17 AM
How does that beat out a head-to-head loss to Baltimore?

Wow, I hate to complain, but that's ridiculous.

If it's a three way tie, the head to head only comes into play if all three teams have played each other - otherwise, you go to the next tie-breaker.

HJam72
11-28-2011, 10:18 AM
If it's a three way tie, the head to head only comes into play if all three teams have played each other - otherwise, you go to the next tie-breaker.

Wow, go New England, LOL.

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 10:18 AM
It doesn't beat out the head to head loss to Baltimore. Something is amiss here.......

In a tie, head to head record is the 1st thing they go to, so Baltimore is above us.

That is true in a two-way tie. We're looking at a three-way tie since New England is also 8-3. In the case of a three-way tie, conference record is the first tie-breaker.

Actual W-L against common opponents win out but there is a minimum of 4 common opponents. Since we do not have 4 common teams among the three of us, it goes to conference record.

Thorn
11-28-2011, 10:23 AM
That is true in a two-way tie. We're looking at a three-way tie since New England is also 8-3. In the case of a three-way tie, conference record is the first tie-breaker.

Actual W-L against common opponents win out but there is a minimum of 4 common opponents. Since we do not have 4 common teams among the three of us, it goes to conference record.

OK, so now I understand. Not that it makes any real difference five games from now though. But, for the time being, I guess it's mentally cool to be #1.

Ole Miss Texan
11-28-2011, 10:36 AM
I think there are different rules for a 3 way tie than 2 way tie. Regardless, there's still 5 games left.

Texanmike02
11-28-2011, 10:51 AM
Yes. Just to confirm. A two way tie breaker includes head to head. 3 or more and you can't do head to head.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

It is pretty confusing but it makes sense. What if we had lost to balt and beat NE and then NE had beat Balt?

Mike

HJam72
11-28-2011, 10:58 AM
Nevermind. I'll just go with it.

Trail.Blazr
11-28-2011, 11:21 AM
Who really cares about seeding at this point? I just want to get in

I care. Nothing I want less than Home field advantage. Granted, there are big concerns regarding our future, with the current QB situation, but certainly don't/won't dismiss the potential for winning the Conference.

Right now Barry Warner is talking about "how we just need to win 2 more games" almost like he's not sure it can be done, but confident we can against Indy and Carolina. CRAPOLA... we need to win 5 games. It starts with Atlanta. Atlanta is the one team that if Houston can beat in the next 5, makes the others all win-able. If Atlanta loses, EVERYONE will be caring about seeding. Thinking more on it, I understand the "I just want to get in" aspect given the team's current circumstances. There's a golf phrase I like when my buds are looking to opt out of a golf round based on forecast: Make it rain you out, don't let it scare you out. I've played more rounds than I've been rained out, based on that. Same thing here. Granted the sky is gray, but last I checked the Texans are on their biggest win streak of the franchise history, despite LOTS of major issues. THIS team is finding a way to overcome. TJ NEEDS a 1st round bye.

SAMURAITEXAN
11-28-2011, 11:35 AM
Nice to know we are #1 after week 12. I am really concerned about Atlanta game as their D is #2 against run and we got 3rd string QB. Their D against pass is #25 but again, inexperience QB on our side makes a little difficult to take an advantage of the situation. Hope, Kubiak can come up with winning plan that Yates be able to handle.

Go Texans!!!

Corrosion
11-28-2011, 11:35 AM
How does that beat out a head-to-head loss to Baltimore?

Wow, I hate to complain, but that's ridiculous.

From my understanding - If it were simply the Texans and Ravens tied for the best record the head to head would be in play but since its multiple teams tied conference record comes into play instead.

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 11:44 AM
I care. Nothing I want less than Home field advantage. Granted, there are big concerns regarding our future, with the current QB situation, but certainly don't/won't dismiss the potential for winning the Conference.


Agreed. 5 weeks out & we've got an opportunity to be the #1 seed in the AFC. To me, that's what I'm getting my team prepared for.

Shoot for the stars, hit the moon. If the team is just trying to get in.... we might miss.

Trail.Blazr
11-28-2011, 12:49 PM
Nice to know we are #1 after week 12. I am really concerned about Atlanta game as their D is #2 against run and we got 3rd string QB. Their D against pass is #25 but again, inexperience QB on our side makes a little difficult to take an advantage of the situation. Hope, Kubiak can come up with winning plan that Yates be able to handle.

Go Texans!!!

If it was me calling plays, everytime I see the box stacked with 1 on 1.. I'm looking at Dunta Robinson. I've watched a few Atlanta games in the past weeks and 23 is OVERPAID.

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 02:08 PM
If it was me calling plays, everytime I see the box stacked with 1 on 1.. I'm looking at Dunta Robinson. I've watched a few Atlanta games in the past weeks and 23 is OVERPAID.

A little off topic.

I was watching the Cowboys this Thanksgiving. The Cowboy receivers were having a field day against Miami's corners. But Romo kept putting the ball where the Corners had better position.


Same thing when I watched Palko last night. He started the game rough, three INTs in back to back possessions. I think it was three back to back to back pass attempts. The receivers were open, ball was just in the wrong place. The last one (to seal the game) Bowe was open.... Palko made it look as though he thought Bowe was breaking his pattern & running a go route when (I think) he was just saying, "I'm open"

LikeMike
11-28-2011, 04:41 PM
Ive got a question: if we end up with the same record as the Titans - what is the tiebreaker if we split the two head to head games?

TexanFan881
11-28-2011, 04:52 PM
Ive got a question: if we end up with the same record as the Titans - what is the tiebreaker if we split the two head to head games?

Division record. Right now we are 4-0. They are 1-2. So essentially, we have a 3 game lead in the division with 5 games left.

HJam72
11-28-2011, 04:53 PM
Ive got a question: if we end up with the same record as the Titans - what is the tiebreaker if we split the two head to head games?

It's either division or conference games, both of which we would still win.

Ole Miss Texan
11-28-2011, 04:57 PM
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5.Strength of victory.
6.Strength of schedule.
7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9.Best net points in common games.
10.Best net points in all games.
11.Best net touchdowns in all games.
12.Coin toss


http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 05:29 PM
Division record. Right now we are 4-0. They are 1-2. So essentially, we have a 3 game lead in the division with 5 games left.

That's right, as long as we beat either Indy or Tennessee, we'll finish with only one loss in the division & the Tie breaker over the Titans.

So we could possibly go into Jan 4 at 10-5 the Titans could be 9-6. We could lose that game (as long as we beat Indy) & still win the division.

HJam72
11-28-2011, 05:32 PM
Makes me kinda hope we lose that one just to tick them off.

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 05:41 PM
Makes me kinda hope we lose that one just to tick them off.

Lose at home to the Titans?

I don't think that would tick Bud off, he'll probably throw a parade.

I'd rather whup his ass with our Scout team.
:cow:

Kimmy
11-28-2011, 05:41 PM
Belongs to Houston (http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/playoffs/sort/conferenceRank/order/false)




Enjoy it while it lasts boys....

& girls.

Thanks for including "the girls" LOL

Ole Miss Texan
11-28-2011, 06:04 PM
I've been looking at our standings, and the tie breaking procedures and think we're sitting pretty good.

Here's where we're at today and in order of the tie breakers:
Overall Record: Texans (8-3) : Titans (6-5)
Head-to-Head: Texans (1-0) : Titans (0-1)
Division Record: Texans (4-0) : Titans (1-2)
Common Games: Texans (6-2) : Titans (5-4)
Conference Games: Texans (7-2) : Titans (4-4)

If we beat Tennessee and win only one other game (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Carolina or Indianapolis) we're guaranteed to go to the playoffs. If we go 6-0 in our division, just having to beat Indy and Tennessee we're guaranteed. That would be awesome.

Worst Case: We lose out and go 8-8. We'd still make the playoffs if the Titans go 1-3 in their other games.

Key games: All of them!

Tennessee has 3 division games remaining, one against each team. New Orleans counts as a common opponent. Buffalo counts as a conference opponent.

Every game the Texans have left is a common opponent.

LikeMike
11-28-2011, 06:27 PM
Thanks guys! Playoffs seem very realistic now, even with a rookie 5th round pick at QB. Id expect us to win anywhere between 1 and 3 games of the remaining schedule. It sure would be nice to have double digits wins at the end of the season...

Then look for Yates to explode in the playoffs and be the next fairytale QB - I can dream right? It seems that`s all theres left to do as a Texans fan...

SAMURAITEXAN
11-28-2011, 06:45 PM
If it was me calling plays, everytime I see the box stacked with 1 on 1.. I'm looking at Dunta Robinson. I've watched a few Atlanta games in the past weeks and 23 is OVERPAID.

Dunta may be overpaid but aint the Texans' money. Sure glad we have J Jo that gets paid similar(I think) to Dunta but wwwaaaayyyy better CB. Anyway, J Jo worth every penny.

I hope, Kubiak is able to simplify the passing scheme for Yates to handle. If we can do this, we should be competitive against the rest of remaining schedule teams.

Go Texans!!!

Corrosion
11-28-2011, 07:45 PM
Dunta may be overpaid but aint the Texans' money. Sure glad we have J Jo that gets paid similar(I think) to Dunta but wwwaaaayyyy better CB. Anyway, J Jo worth every penny.

I hope, Kubiak is able to simplify the passing scheme for Yates to handle. If we can do this, we should be competitive against the rest of remaining schedule teams.

Go Texans!!!

I think Yates knows the scheme well enough , its more a matter of timing than anything else. The reps he will get with the first team this week should help with that.

Case in point - The pass he hit OD in the facemask .... The pass was on the money but was a half second late giving the defender time to make a play on the ball.

Off topic but OD didnt have a drop all season - Did that go down as a drop or a pass defended by the defender ?!

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 08:28 PM
I think Yates knows the scheme well enough , its more a matter of timing than anything else. The reps he will get with the first team this week should help with that.


Just curious... how well, does Yates "know" our offense?

Really, as the third string QB, he's basically running the scout team. Which means he is "simulating" our weekly opponent. He's not being asked to go through our play-book, he's being asked to line up & go through a progression or hand the ball off in a system that has little to do with what we are doing.

He's not worried about checking, calling, or adjusting protection or blocking schemes. He's not being asked to put a receiver in motion to see how the defense reacts.

The last two weeks, if Leinart was getting extra snaps, Yates was still running the scout team, acting like Gabbert (so to speak).

This week may very well be the first time he has to take snaps in our system. I would imagine he goes to the regular QB meetings, study film with Matt & Matt, goes through the drills with Knapp.

But actually taking a snap in our offense, making his reads, & adjusting protection.... this may be the first time that he's been doing it.

I could be wrong, but think about it. Matt & Matt got the first & second team snaps. Yates ran the scout team.

DocBar
11-28-2011, 08:38 PM
Just go 1-oh this week and who gives a sh*t? Keep the mantra, focus and make it happen. The Texans can do this. Proper coaching and game planning can put us in the #1 seed at the end of regulation. Keep the faith, peeps.

Corrosion
11-28-2011, 08:39 PM
Just curious... how well, does Yates "know" our offense?

Really, as the third string QB, he's basically running the scout team. Which means he is "simulating" our weekly opponent. He's not being asked to go through our play-book, he's being asked to line up & go through a progression or hand the ball off in a system that has little to do with what we are doing.

He's not worried about checking, calling, or adjusting protection or blocking schemes. He's not being asked to put a receiver in motion to see how the defense reacts.

The last two weeks, if Leinart was getting extra snaps, Yates was still running the scout team, acting like Gabbert (so to speak).

This week may very well be the first time he has to take snaps in our system. I would imagine he goes to the regular QB meetings, study film with Matt & Matt, goes through the drills with Knapp.

But actually taking a snap in our offense, making his reads, & adjusting protection.... this may be the first time that he's been doing it.

I could be wrong, but think about it. Matt & Matt got the first & second team snaps. Yates ran the scout team.

Being the scout team QB is one of the toughest jobs in the game of football.

Not only do you have to know your scheme but you have to learn parts of a different scheme every week.

The biggest difference with Yates running the scout team Vs the #1's is in the timing and feel he gets to develop with the recievers.

Im sure he knows the playbook inside out .... What it boils down to is how he goes thru his reads post snap , avoiding defenses attempts to confuse him into poor decisions.

DocBar
11-28-2011, 08:47 PM
Being the scout team QB is one of the toughest jobs in the game of football.

Not only do you have to know your scheme but you have to learn parts of a different scheme every week.
The biggest difference with Yates running the scout team Vs the #1's is in the timing and feel he gets to develop with the recievers.

Im sure he knows the playbook inside out .... What it boils down to is how he goes thru his reads post snap , avoiding defenses attempts to confuse him into poor decisions. Could this ability to decipher other team's O's help Yates read opposing D's coverages? That will be key to his success.

GP
11-28-2011, 09:04 PM
I've been looking at our standings, and the tie breaking procedures and think we're sitting pretty good.

Here's where we're at today and in order of the tie breakers:
Overall Record: Texans (8-3) : Titans (6-5)
Head-to-Head: Texans (1-0) : Titans (0-1)
Division Record: Texans (4-0) : Titans (1-2)
Common Games: Texans (6-2) : Titans (5-4)
Conference Games: Texans (7-2) : Titans (4-4)

If we beat Tennessee and win only one other game (Atlanta, Cincinnati, Carolina or Indianapolis) we're guaranteed to go to the playoffs. If we go 6-0 in our division, just having to beat Indy and Tennessee we're guaranteed. That would be awesome.

Worst Case: We lose out and go 8-8. We'd still make the playoffs if the Titans go 1-3 in their other games.

Key games: All of them!

Tennessee has 3 division games remaining, one against each team. New Orleans counts as a common opponent. Buffalo counts as a conference opponent.

Every game the Texans have left is a common opponent.

Awesome post. You need to file this away somewhere.

Copy and paste the text of your post. Put it into a text document or Word document for when we need it again. I think a lot of people need to know the tie-breaking scenario each week, how it breaks down between Titans and Texans.

Corrosion
11-28-2011, 09:10 PM
Awesome post. You need to file this away somewhere.

Copy and paste the text of your post. Put it into a text document or Word document for when we need it again. I think a lot of people need to know the tie-breaking scenario each week, how it breaks down between Titans and Texans.

Naw , we dont need this information again .... Texans will go 5-0 to close out the season .... Tits are done. Stick a fork in them. :cool:

SAMURAITEXAN
11-28-2011, 11:17 PM
I think Yates knows the scheme well enough , its more a matter of timing than anything else. The reps he will get with the first team this week should help with that.

Case in point - The pass he hit OD in the facemask .... The pass was on the money but was a half second late giving the defender time to make a play on the ball.

Off topic but OD didnt have a drop all season - Did that go down as a drop or a pass defended by the defender ?!

Knowing and actually doing is a big difference IMO. This is why I am saying to simplify the scheme enough for Yates to succeed and add new wrinkles every week. If we can do this, Yates will improve every week like how our D has been improving every week.

Go Texans!!!

thunderkyss
11-28-2011, 11:36 PM
Super Bowl

I was listening to the Danieal Manning show earlier & he said the teams goal is & always has been Super Bowl. That hasn't changed with the QB situation. Everyone knows it's a team game & they're going to rally behind the kid.


Still going 1 & oh each week, but the ultimate goal is Super Bowl.

We've got the #1 seed & they don't plan on giving it away without a fight.

:texan:

Trail.Blazr
11-29-2011, 08:59 AM
Dunta may be overpaid but aint the Texans' money. Sure glad we have J Jo that gets paid similar(I think) to Dunta but wwwaaaayyyy better CB. Anyway, J Jo worth every penny.

I hope, Kubiak is able to simplify the passing scheme for Yates to handle. If we can do this, we should be competitive against the rest of remaining schedule teams.

Go Texans!!!

Agree completely, but my point is that Dunta looks bad enough to be an outlet for TJ to have a place to go. I'm not saying Petey F bad, but bad.

WhoDey14
11-29-2011, 11:57 AM
I am not worried at all, I should be...but nah! We're going places this year! Even if we are missing players. SUPER BOWL!

SAMURAITEXAN
11-29-2011, 12:45 PM
Agree completely, but my point is that Dunta looks bad enough to be an outlet for TJ to have a place to go. I'm not saying Petey F bad, but bad.

I know superMario90. But, please don't remind Petey:wadepalm::kubepalm::mariopalm:

Go Texans!!!

thunderkyss
12-11-2011, 08:25 PM
I know it's difficult for some of you. There's still three weeks left in the season.

But for now, the win over another conference opponent puts us squarely in the #1 seed.

Try to enjoy it, if for only a week.

http://flapjacksociety.com/assets_c/2009/10/Nature+Boy+Ric+Flair-thumb-400x433-1517.jpg


Wooooo!!

TexanSam
12-11-2011, 08:26 PM
So playoff seeding isn't based on head to head matchups if two teams have the same record? I figured the Ravens would be the #1 right now since they beat us.

thunderkyss
12-11-2011, 08:30 PM
So playoff seeding isn't based on head to head matchups if two teams have the same record? I figured the Ravens would be the #1 right now since they beat us.

Once again... it's a three way tie. Common opponents is the first tie-breaker with a minimum of 4. Since the three teams do not have 4 common opponents it goes to conference schedule & we've played/won more conference games than either New England, & I think our SOV (strength of victory) is better than Baltimore.


I could be completely wrong, but CBS (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace)is showing us as the #1 seed.

Premier
12-11-2011, 08:30 PM
Full game is up..

HD to be uploaded later..

http://forum.rojadirecta.es/showthread.php?148959-NFL-Week-14-Houston-Texans-Cincinnati-Bengals-11-12-2011&

Stemp
12-11-2011, 08:34 PM
Houston Texans - AFC South Champ
Wins tie break over New England and Baltimore based on best win percentage in conference games.

We need Baltimore to drop a game OR we need NE to continue to win

arb729
12-11-2011, 08:35 PM
Full game is up..

HD to be uploaded later..

http://forum.rojadirecta.es/showthread.php?148959-NFL-Week-14-Houston-Texans-Cincinnati-Bengals-11-12-2011&

THANK YOU!!! My flight left right as they turned it over on downs at the beginning of the fourth and didnt land until 530, thus I missed The Drive. THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!

thunderkyss
12-11-2011, 08:38 PM
We need Baltimore to drop a game OR we need NE to continue to win

If the three teams continue to win, we'll end up with the same conference record. Like last week, we'll be the #3 seed as New England would win the tie breaker among the three, then Baltimore beat us head to head.

We need to win out more than Baltimore.

JCTexan
12-11-2011, 08:40 PM
Once again... it's a three way tie. Common opponents is the first tie-breaker with a minimum of 4. Since the three teams do not have 4 common opponents it goes to conference schedule & we've played/won more conference games than either New England, & I think our SOV (strength of victory) is better than Baltimore.


I could be completely wrong, but CBS (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace)is showing us as the #1 seed.

Actually it's better conference record than both teams. Houston is 8-2 in the conference and both New England & Baltimore are 7-2. Houston will move back into the 3rd seed if all three teams win next week, based off strength of victory.

thunderkyss
12-16-2011, 08:54 PM
Actually it's better conference record than both teams. Houston is 8-2 in the conference and both New England & Baltimore are 7-2. Houston will move back into the 3rd seed if all three teams win next week, based off strength of victory.

Let's enjoy this while we can guys...

thunderkyss
12-16-2011, 09:46 PM
Here's a good article. (http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2011/12/a-thorough-comparison-of-the-afcs-top-four-teams/)


The short version

The four playoff teams, with their strength of victory (win percentage of teams they beat), strength of loss (win percentage of teams that beat them) and the remaining schedule (win percentage of their remaining opponents).
Team -----------SOV---SOL ---- RS
Baltimore -----.515 --0.43--- 0.43
Pittsburgh ----.431 --0.77 --- 0.41
New England .415---- 0.56- -0.43
Houston ------.400---0.69 --- 0.31

srrono
12-20-2011, 12:46 PM
As of today Texans have a home game vs NYJ

heres a breakdown of race for byes
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/20/it-was-a-nice-week-for-the-patriots/

Patriots: Its not tough to figure out the scenarios. New England just has to beat the Dolphins and Bills in Foxborough to clinch the top spot.

Miami could be a trickier game than people think. They are playing excellent defense and their man coverage could give New England some problems. The Dolphins have won five of seven games for a reason.

Still, those are two home games the Patriots should win. Despite all their defensive problems, they have a great chance to go 13-3 and get the top seed in the AFC.

Ravens: If the Patriots lost another game, Baltimore would get the No. 1 seed by winning out. The Ravens will hold the tiebreak over the Patriots and Texans because of strength of victory if all three teams tied.

The Ravens host the Browns then head to Cincinnati. Baltimore is 3-4 on the road. That Bengals game is no gimme. If the Ravens win twice, they get no worse than the No. 2 seed.

Texans: They need the Ravens or Patriots to slip up for a chance at a bye. Baltimore beat Houston head-to-head. At this stage, its uncertain who would win a tiebreak between the Texans and Patriots. Its too close.

Steelers: Pittsburgh probably gave up any chance at a bye when they lost to the 49ers. Even if Pittsburgh won the AFC North, the Steelers would need Houston to lose again in order to have a chance for a bye.

So are the Patriots suddenly Super Bowl favorites? Not really. All of these teams are evenly matched and beatable.

The Patriots have the clearest weakness of any AFC contender, so they need any advantage they can get.

JCTexan
12-20-2011, 01:13 PM
As of today Texans have a home game vs NYJ

heres a breakdown of race for byes
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/20/it-was-a-nice-week-for-the-patriots/

Patriots: Its not tough to figure out the scenarios. New England just has to beat the Dolphins and Bills in Foxborough to clinch the top spot.

Miami could be a trickier game than people think. They are playing excellent defense and their man coverage could give New England some problems. The Dolphins have won five of seven games for a reason.

Still, those are two home games the Patriots should win. Despite all their defensive problems, they have a great chance to go 13-3 and get the top seed in the AFC.

Ravens: If the Patriots lost another game, Baltimore would get the No. 1 seed by winning out. The Ravens will hold the tiebreak over the Patriots and Texans because of strength of victory if all three teams tied.

The Ravens host the Browns then head to Cincinnati. Baltimore is 3-4 on the road. That Bengals game is no gimme. If the Ravens win twice, they get no worse than the No. 2 seed.

Texans: They need the Ravens or Patriots to slip up for a chance at a bye. Baltimore beat Houston head-to-head. At this stage, its uncertain who would win a tiebreak between the Texans and Patriots. Its too close.

Steelers: Pittsburgh probably gave up any chance at a bye when they lost to the 49ers. Even if Pittsburgh won the AFC North, the Steelers would need Houston to lose again in order to have a chance for a bye.

So are the Patriots suddenly Super Bowl favorites? Not really. All of these teams are evenly matched and beatable.

The Patriots have the clearest weakness of any AFC contender, so they need any advantage they can get.


Not true. If New England loses one game and Houston & Baltimore wins out Houston would hold the tiebreaker based on conference record (10-2 to 9-3). Baltimore has the tiebreaker over Houston right now based on head-2-head, but that wouldn't come into play if all three teams are tied at 12-4 at the end of the year.