PDA

View Full Version : Schaub + Texans = Cutler + Bears????


Cerberus
11-21-2011, 09:22 AM
Will the Bears losing Cutler have the same effect on the Bears that Schuab will have to the Texans? I only ask, because if you believe that losing Cutler spells doom and gloom for the Bears, you may have to look at the Schaub loss the same. Texans and Bears both have great defenses, both have great running backs, and both just lost their starting QBs. So, before counting out Bears, or penciling-in the Texans for the playoffs, think about the losses of Schaub and Cutler and how they could effect the two teams similarly.

robroy72
11-21-2011, 09:37 AM
IMHO : Our backup QB is much more of a cog in our organization than what the Bears have. We'll look back on this and realize we're lucky to have him, again IMHO.

drunkcookie
11-21-2011, 09:40 AM
Bears to have a good RB, but nowhere near the running "game"... Also, from what i can tell Chicago's system differs from the Texans which is more user-friendly for QBs...

As for each team's playoff hopes, they couldn't be more different... The Texans have a two game lead in a weak division, currently with a tie-breaker over the 2nd place team... The Bears, well they're in the Packers' division...

Sent from my ryePhone 12G using Tapakeg

GlassHalfFull
11-21-2011, 09:42 AM
Shouldn't the equation read:

Texans - Schaub = Bears - Cutler ???

or more likely

Texans - Schaub > Bears - Cutler ???

TexanBacker93
11-21-2011, 09:45 AM
Will the Bears losing Cutler have the same effect on the Bears that Schuab will have to the Texans? I only ask, because if you believe that losing Cutler spells doom and gloom for the Bears, you may have to look at the Schaub loss the same. Texans and Bears both have great defenses, both have great running backs, and both just lost their starting QBs. So, before counting out Bears, or penciling-in the Texans for the playoffs, think about the losses of Schaub and Cutler and how they could effect the two teams similarly.

Really? You don't think that the fact that the Bears are currently sitting in the 6th spot in their playoff chase behind an undefeated Green Bay and the Detriot Lions makes it worse a worse situation than ours?

If we win our 3 division games we clinch the division and a playoff spot. We aren't trying to fight for a wildcard spot against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York, etc. That makes it a heck of a lot easier. Without Schaub I like our chances to beat Tennessee here and Jacksonville and Indianapolis on the road. This team is 7-3 with Schaub, Johnson, and Foster being on the field together for a quarter and a half. We've beaten the Titans and Jaguars without Johnson, and the Colts without Foster.

I agree that the situations are similar because of the makeup of the team, but if you look at where we currently stand we have a much easier road to get to the playoffs.

Lucky
11-21-2011, 09:47 AM
Hanie might surprise people. Leinart, as well. I like both teams' chances to make the playoffs, still.

Cerberus
11-21-2011, 09:50 AM
IMHO : Our backup QB is much more of a cog in our organization than what the Bears have. We'll look back on this and realize we're lucky to have him, again IMHO.

Yeah, and the Texan's schedule is probably easier too. However, my point is simply that if you "write off" the Bears because of Cutler's injury, what does believing in Leinart and the Texans maybe tell you about Texan fans and this team? You think that maybe they could be a little bias and want to believe Leinart-for-Schaub won't be as bad as Hanie-for-Cutler? None of us will know for sure until they start playing games, but my point is simply that if one is discounted shouldn't the other be discounted as well? Shouldn't both the Bears and Texans be viewed as being in good position, or both viewed as being screwed? And yes, I realize the Texans are in first and the Bears are in second, but there are still 6 more games to play. Both these teams could lose out. Unlikely, but quite possible. But even if they both go 3-3, what are the chances in the playoffs against the elite teams? And if both teams make the playoffs and get their QBs back, do they pull a Marty Schottenheimer (pulled Gannon in favor of Grbac) and pull the "hot hand" for the returning starter?

I just think losing the starting QB at THIS point in time is a bad thing for any team. Early on, teams were able to change QB either because of ineffective play from the starter or injury, as time progressed teams like the Raiders were able to secure themselves a starter because the trading deadline had not yet passed, but now? Now is a bad time to be "changing horses" IMO. Of course, there is no choice in the matter, but I still think it is bad. At least early on a team could get away with it because other teams were gelling after no TC, but to try and have an offense gel now while playing teams' defense that are finally on the same page; not good!

Cerberus
11-21-2011, 09:51 AM
Shouldn't the equation read:

Texans - Schaub = Bears - Cutler ???

or more likely

Texans - Schaub > Bears - Cutler ???

Yeah, I guess it should have been.

ObsiWan
11-21-2011, 09:52 AM
Shouldn't the equation read:

Texans - Schaub = Bears - Cutler ???

or more likely

Texans - Schaub > Bears - Cutler ???

Your derivation makes more sense.
:thumbup

drunkcookie
11-21-2011, 09:53 AM
Really? You don't think that the fact that the Bears are currently sitting in the 6th spot in their playoff chase behind an undefeated Green Bay and the Detriot Lions makes it worse a worse situation than ours?

If we win our 3 division games we clinch the division and a playoff spot. We aren't trying to fight for a wildcard spot against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York, etc. That makes it a heck of a lot easier. Without Schaub I like our chances to beat Tennessee here and Jacksonville and Indianapolis on the road. This team is 7-3 with Schaub, Johnson, and Foster being on the field together for a quarter and a half. We've beaten the Titans and Jaguars without Johnson, and the Colts without Foster.

I agree that the situations are similar because of the makeup of the team, but if you look at where we currently stand we have a much easier road to get to the playoffs.

For sure... There really is no comparing the two when it comes to playoff implications...

I don't know what the Bears' remaining schedule is, but for the sake of this post I'll say it's "equal" to the Texans'... And say i felt with Schaub the Texans go 5-1, and with Cutler the Bears go 5-1... If i felt rhe loss of these two starters added up the same for both teams, maybe i'd say each teams finishes the reg season 3-3... Texans would probably still win the division and have a home playoff game... The Bears probably don't make the playoffs...

Sent from my ryePhone 12G using Tapakeg

Marcus
11-21-2011, 09:58 AM
Doesn't it all depend on who the backup quarterback is? Also, how is the running game on one team verses another? How good is the team overall?

There is this tendency to place way too much value on the quarterback, and it's wrong to do that.

Quarterbacks do not get "wins" or "losses" like baseball pitchers.

Lucky
11-21-2011, 10:02 AM
If i felt rhe loss of these two starters added up the same for both teams, maybe i'd say each teams finishes the reg season 3-3... Texans would probably still win the division and have a home playoff game... The Bears probably don't make the playoffs...

3-3 would make the Bears 10-6, with a head-head tiebreak over the Falcons. The Falcons would have to go 5-1 to overtake them. Not likely. I still like the Bears in the final wildcard spot.

drunkcookie
11-21-2011, 10:04 AM
each teams finishes the reg season 3-3... Texans would probably still win the division and have a home playoff game... The Bears probably don't make the playoffs...

Sent from my ryePhone 12G using Tapakeg

Actually at 10-6 the Bears would still have a chance at a wildcard, but not as good a chance of making the playoffs as the Texans...


Sent from my ryePhone 12G using Tapakeg

drunkcookie
11-21-2011, 10:06 AM
3-3 would make the Bears 10-6, with a head-head tiebreak over the Falcons. The Falcons would have to go 5-1 to overtake them. Not likely. I still like the Bears in the final wildcard spot.

You beat me to it, i was thinking the Bears were 6-4...

But still imy sentiment remains, i think the Texans still have the better shot, though both teams have good shots...

Sent from my ryePhone 12G using Tapakeg

Lucky
11-21-2011, 10:15 AM
You beat me to it, i was thinking the Bears were 6-4...

But still imy sentiment remains, i think the Texans still have the better shot, though both teams have good shots...

True. But the Texans had a better shot at the playoffs prior to both QBs going down. I see Cerberus' point. Neither team is as good as before. But, good enough to make the playoffs.

drunkcookie
11-21-2011, 10:20 AM
True. But the Texans had a better shot at the playoffs prior to both QBs going down. I see Cerberus' point. Neither team is as good as before. But, good enough to make the playoffs.

Oh, no doubt! But the key word (or symbol is this case) was "="... The Texans have the advantage because they still control their own destiny here... But yah it's still close...

Sent from my ryePhone 12G using Tapakeg

Maddict5
11-21-2011, 10:31 AM
i would say cutler is a more important loss to the bears. hes one of the few guys in the league that could suceed there with that line & wrs. our system and sitaution is alot more qb friendly and leinart has a better chance of coming in and suceeding

beerlover
11-21-2011, 10:37 AM
I'll play along. Have Texans #3 seed vs. Broncos #6. Texans advance. Face Steelers in Divisional which Texans win. Texans vs Patriots in AFC conference championship & win heading to the Superbowl to meet the Packers. Texans win the Superbowl in an upset 44.3% to 55.7%.

:logo:

sbalderrama
11-21-2011, 10:39 AM
i would say cutler is a more important loss to the bears. hes one of the few guys in the league that could suceed there with that line & wrs. our system and sitaution is alot more qb friendly and leinart has a better chance of coming in and suceeding

The line is key. We have a much better pass protecting line which will give Leinart some time. Cutler was getting killed until they started getting him out of the pocket all the time, but a less capable QB will probably still have trouble.

ChampionTexan
11-21-2011, 10:40 AM
First, I'm not writing off the Bears chances, just as I'm not suggesting that losing Schaub for the season is anything but a negative.

However, when you look at the two situations and try to form an opinion on which team is in the better situation to weather their specific circumstances, it is a very defensible position to say it's the Texans.

As has already been pointed out, their current playoff positioning is better than the Bears, and their remaining schedule is probably a bit tougher than ours as half the teams we play currently have 3 wins or fewer.

I think the most important single component of why the Texans should deal with the loss of a starting QB better is the running game. When you look at the running and passing (including sacks) percentage to this point in the season, you'll see that the Texans have run the ball approx. 54% of the time, while the Bears number stands at approx. 44%. The YPC is actually pretty comparable at 4.4 for the Texans to 4.3 for the Bears, but this stat tells me the Texans offense is less impacted by the QB than the Bears. It also tells me there's likely to be less of an adjustment to the new QB for the Texans (although the way Martz's mind works, he may choose not to make any adjustments - which would present problems in and of itself).

The final item that makes me believe the Texans are in a better position to deal with this adversity is their defense. While the OP characterized both defenses as great, it didn't point out that if you evaluate defenses by yards, the Bears are in the bottom 1/3 of the league, while the Texans are #1. If you'd rather go by points allowed, then you're looking at a middle of the pack Bears (13th) compared to the second best scoring defense in the league. The result of all this is a Bears team that has an average point differential of plus 6.1 per game compared to a Texans team of plus 10.7 game. In other words, we're better positioned to deal with a decrease in offensive potency.

Again, neither team should view it as a positive that their starting QB is out of the rest of the year, nor should either team view it as a sign that their season is over. I just think that in a head to head comparison, the impact on the Texans shouldn't be as great as the impact on the Bears.

Cerberus
11-21-2011, 10:40 AM
Doesn't it all depend on who the backup quarterback is? Also, how is the running game on one team verses another? How good is the team overall?

There is this tendency to place way too much value on the quarterback, and it's wrong to do that.

Quarterbacks do not get "wins" or "losses" like baseball pitchers.

I hear what you are saying, or at least can read what you have typed, but in truth they DO get W/L like pitchers. Take a look here if for no other reason than to introduce you to a site you may not be familiar with, anyway you'll see Schaub is 32-32 with the Texans and 0-2 with the Falcons: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SchaMa00.htm Look at the column next to GS (games started); you'll also notice the site is frequently updated.

True. But the Texans had a better shot at the playoffs prior to both QBs going down. I see Cerberus' point. Neither team is as good as before. But, good enough to make the playoffs.

Yes, my point is simply that both teams just got knocked down a couple notches, though it appears many Texan fans believe it was only a notch for their team.

What happens if Leinart goes 1-5 or 2-4?

thunderkyss
11-21-2011, 10:43 AM
Will the Bears losing Cutler have the same effect on the Bears that Schuab will have to the Texans? I only ask, because if you believe that losing Cutler spells doom and gloom for the Bears, you may have to look at the Schaub loss the same. Texans and Bears both have great defenses, both have great running backs, and both just lost their starting QBs. So, before counting out Bears, or penciling-in the Texans for the playoffs, think about the losses of Schaub and Cutler and how they could effect the two teams similarly.

Oh, you are so right.

If only this had happened before the trade deadline, then we could trade next year's number 1 pick plus 2013's 2nd round pick (that could turn into a 1) for a QB that has seen his better days...... 4 years ago.

Woe is me... woe is the Texans..... if only we could be run like that classy Oakland franchise.... if only we had the forethought of that genius Al Davis...

Well, what's done is done. Can't cry over spilled milk. Hopefully the Texans can read the tea leaves as well as you & start tanking the remaining 6 games on our schedule. @ 7-9 maybe we can pick in the 18-22 range & get something from this wasted season.

Woe is me..... woe is me... all hail to the Raiders.......

ObsiWan
11-21-2011, 10:57 AM
Oh, you are so right.

If only this had happened before the trade deadline, then we could trade next year's number 1 pick plus 2013's 2nd round pick (that could turn into a 1) for a QB that has seen his better days...... 4 years ago.

Woe is me... woe is the Texans..... if only we could be run like that classy Oakland franchise.... if only we had the forethought of that genius Al Davis...

Well, what's done is done. Can't cry over spilled milk. Hopefully the Texans can read the tea leaves as well as you & start tanking the remaining 6 games on our schedule. @ 7-9 maybe we can pick in the 18-22 range & get something from this wasted season.

Woe is me..... woe is me... all hail to the Raiders.......

what ARE you talking about?
Maybe I missed them, but I can't recall a single post where someone lamented about not being able to snag Carson Palmer. So what are you on about?
:confused:

thunderkyss
11-21-2011, 11:00 AM
what ARE you talking about?

He's waiting for one of us to tell him what a great decision it was for the Raiders to mortgage their future on Palmer.

steelbtexan
11-21-2011, 11:02 AM
Both the Texans/Bears will win 10 games.

The Texans will win the Division.

The Bears will need luck to win a WC berth in the NFC.

ObsiWan
11-21-2011, 11:07 AM
Tough break for both teams, no doubt.
But the season for neither team should be assumed to be headed in this direction....
http://images.ucomics.com/comics/crstr/2011/crstr111121.gif (http://www.mycomicspage.com/strangebrew/2011/11/21/)

ObsiWan
11-21-2011, 11:11 AM
He's waiting for one of us to tell him what a great decision it was for the Raiders to mortgage their future on Palmer.

We were in much better shape, depth wise, than Oakland. While he has helped them, Oakland waaaay overspent for C.P.
There was no reason for us to make a drastic move like that.

I will say this, I'm waiting to see who gets signed to backup Yates. At the rate QB's are dropping, we need some insurance.

thunderkyss
11-21-2011, 11:21 AM
We were in much better shape, depth wise, than Oakland. While he has helped them, Oakland waaaay overspent for C.P.
There was no reason for us to make a drastic move like that.

I will say this, I'm waiting to see who gets signed to backup Yates. At the rate QB's are dropping, we need some insurance.

A lot of people are looking at GreenBay as the template for the "correct" way to bring along a QB prospect. Sit him behind a guy who can get the job done for a couple of years or so then let him lose.

While we didn't draft a first rounder, that is exactly what Leinart is & he's been sitting behind Kurt Warner & Matt Schaub.

He's known success in the NFL & he's known failure. He's had time to study the game, learn his trade, & hone his skills.

He may still be a bust.

Still, he may be that QB he was drafted to be.

Playoffs
11-21-2011, 02:23 PM
Will the Bears losing Cutler have the same effect on the Bears that Schuab will have to the Texans?
No, the Bears are in worse shape.

Martz's offense is quarterback un-friendly & very complicated ... and more QB reliant. Cutler has still been running for his life -- and the dude has mad skills. If I see Caleb Haine back there I'm putting 8 in the box. Forte having a big year, but he's no power runner.

Add in the O-lines comparison (glad we ended up with D.Brown over C.Williams) and I think the Texans offense is more of a turnkey system.

Cerberus
11-21-2011, 04:43 PM
First, I'm not writing off the Bears chances, just as I'm not suggesting that losing Schaub for the season is anything but a negative.

However, when you look at the two situations and try to form an opinion on which team is in the better situation to weather their specific circumstances, it is a very defensible position to say it's the Texans.

As has already been pointed out, their current playoff positioning is better than the Bears, and their remaining schedule is probably a bit tougher than ours as half the teams we play currently have 3 wins or fewer.

I think the most important single component of why the Texans should deal with the loss of a starting QB better is the running game. When you look at the running and passing (including sacks) percentage to this point in the season, you'll see that the Texans have run the ball approx. 54% of the time, while the Bears number stands at approx. 44%. The YPC is actually pretty comparable at 4.4 for the Texans to 4.3 for the Bears, but this stat tells me the Texans offense is less impacted by the QB than the Bears. It also tells me there's likely to be less of an adjustment to the new QB for the Texans (although the way Martz's mind works, he may choose not to make any adjustments - which would present problems in and of itself).

The final item that makes me believe the Texans are in a better position to deal with this adversity is their defense. While the OP characterized both defenses as great, it didn't point out that if you evaluate defenses by yards, the Bears are in the bottom 1/3 of the league, while the Texans are #1. If you'd rather go by points allowed, then you're looking at a middle of the pack Bears (13th) compared to the second best scoring defense in the league. The result of all this is a Bears team that has an average point differential of plus 6.1 per game compared to a Texans team of plus 10.7 game. In other words, we're better positioned to deal with a decrease in offensive potency.

Again, neither team should view it as a positive that their starting QB is out of the rest of the year, nor should either team view it as a sign that their season is over. I just think that in a head to head comparison, the impact on the Texans shouldn't be as great as the impact on the Bears.

Nice post, and good research. :goodpost:

what ARE you talking about?
Maybe I missed them, but I can't recall a single post where someone lamented about not being able to snag Carson Palmer. So what are you on about?
:confused:

He is talking about another thread and another subject. One has nothing to do with the other. thunderkyss just doesn't like it that I'm a Raider fan first and foremost, and a Texan fan second. I also think he is still a little butt-sore about the Raiders vs. Texans game this year.

He's waiting for one of us to tell him what a great decision it was for the Raiders to mortgage their future on Palmer.

What does Palmer have to do with Schaub/Cutler? The Raiders picked up Palmer via trade to replace Campbell, something that neither the Texans nor Bears can do with any team, because the trade deadline has come and gone. So, one has nothing to do with the other, unless Palmer were to go down next week; then there would be similarities between the Texans, Bears and Raiders.

TheMatrix31
11-21-2011, 06:06 PM
Cutler's more important to the Bears, I think.

Their WRs are lackluster and they only have Forte. Their D is great though. We have Foster, Tate, Andre, the OL, Dreesen, and Daniels to go along with our stud D.

Lucky
11-21-2011, 11:23 PM
Martz's offense is quarterback un-friendly & very complicated ...

Martz took a guy with 11 career throws and turned him into a Super Bowl MVP after his starting QB went down in 1999. Kurt Warner would say Martz' offense is very friendly.

awc713
11-21-2011, 11:29 PM
are we not forgetting that cutler is out 6-8 weeks?

meaning he could hypothetically play in the playoffs. the bears still have a decently easy schedule, with the afc west still left on their radar. so they might not be completely f'ed. set back, but not f'ed.

Ryan
11-21-2011, 11:45 PM
are we not forgetting that cutler is out 6-8 weeks?

meaning he could hypothetically play in the playoffs. the bears still have a decently easy schedule, with the afc west still left on their radar. so they might not be completely f'ed. set back, but not f'ed.


And we "technically" don't know yet if Schaub is done for yet. We have an idea, but it is not written in stone yet.

Playoffs
11-22-2011, 01:26 AM
Martz took a guy with 11 career throws and turned him into a Super Bowl MVP after his starting QB went down in 1999. Kurt Warner would say Martz' offense is very friendly.
Quarterback unfriendly = QB takes a lot of punishment.

TexanSam
11-22-2011, 08:01 AM
I haven't read many of the Bears quotes after Cutler went down. Only what's been printed on ESPN and on Sportscenter. But my first impression is that the Texans players who've been interviewed have a lot more confidence in Matt Leinart stepping up with Schaub out than the Bears players do in Caleb Hanie. It seems like most Texans players interviewed have had positive things to say about Hanie. Most Bears players that I've heard seem to ignore him and say they need to step up their own play. It has been a small sample size though.

Cerberus
11-22-2011, 09:00 AM
Cutler's more important to the Bears, I think.

Martz took a guy with 11 career throws and turned him into a Super Bowl MVP after his starting QB went down in 1999. Kurt Warner would say Martz' offense is very friendly.

Don't forget that Hanie came in to play after Cutler was injured and Collins bombed in the NFC Championship game. Hanie almost brought the Bears back to win against Rodgers and the Packers. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011012301/2010/POST20/packers@bears#menu=highlights&tab=analyze

are we not forgetting that cutler is out 6-8 weeks?

meaning he could hypothetically play in the playoffs. the bears still have a decently easy schedule, with the afc west still left on their radar. so they might not be completely f'ed. set back, but not f'ed.

And we "technically" don't know yet if Schaub is done for yet. We have an idea, but it is not written in stone yet.

Thus the reason I made the comparison. Both QBs went down on teams that appeared to be playoff bound, and both QB could come back before the season ends. Both teams also have stout defenses and both have one of the League's best RBs in Foster and Forte.

I haven't read many of the Bears quotes after Cutler went down. Only what's been printed on ESPN and on Sportscenter. But my first impression is that the Texans players who've been interviewed have a lot more confidence in Matt Leinart stepping up with Schaub out than the Bears players do in Caleb Hanie. It seems like most Texans players interviewed have had positive things to say about Hanie. Most Bears players that I've heard seem to ignore him and say they need to step up their own play. It has been a small sample size though.

Again, Hanie almost won the NFC Championship Game for the Bears against the Pack and Rodgers. Sure, it could have just been "one of those days", but he obviously has a handle on the system much like Leinart does here in Houston.

Texan_Bill
11-22-2011, 09:41 AM
A lot of people are looking at GreenBay as the template for the "correct" way to bring along a QB prospect. Sit him behind a guy who can get the job done for a couple of years or so then let him lose.

TK, why would you want him to "lose" as opposed to cutting him "loose"? :texanbill:

TheGoldenGreek
11-22-2011, 11:11 AM
In Pete Prisco's weekly power rankings he discusses the similarities and differences between the Bears and Texans' situation.

For Houston, it shouldn't end its playoff hopes. The Texans have essentially a three-game lead in the division with six to go.

Here's the link for the rest:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings

gary
11-22-2011, 02:23 PM
It is just the next man up for both teams I hope they do well.