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Playoffs
11-11-2011, 06:05 PM
Three to Focus on Ė Texans @ Bucs
November 11th, 2011 | Author: Nathan Jahnke

These two potential playoff teams went in different directions during the month of October. The Houston Texans are riding a three game winning streak where they allowed 33 total points while averaging just under 33 points per game over that span. They seem to have a firm hold on the division and now they can set their sights on aiming for a first round bye.

On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost three out of their last four, and is starting to get hit with the injury bug with their top receivers and defensive tackles hurting. They have fallen to third place in the division so their destiny looks similar to last year; a pretty good record but no playoffs. Both teams need this one in order to take a step closer to their goals. Youíll find no rivalries here, just some good olífootball

Running Down The Middle

Now that Arian Foster (+11.5) is healthy and hitting his stride, he and fellow running back Ben Tate (+5.2) are forming a strong one two punch. Both players were good enough to make the All-PFF team last week. While they are better running to the outside than inside, itís hard to resist pounding the ball up the middle when you have Chris Myers (+25.8) as your center. When running down the middle, these two backs have had 100 carries for 429 yards, four touchdowns, and nine players missing tackles on them. While they will still run to the outside a fair amount of time in this game, the Buccaneers have a big weakness in the middle that the Texans can and should exploit.

Tampa Bay is hurting at defensive tackle, with their best one, Gerald McCoy (+5.5), lost for the season. Their second best tackle, Frank Okam (-1.7), missed last week and his status is in question this time around. This leaves Brian Price (-13.3) and Roy Miller (-8.7) as their starting tackles. They have 12 combined stops on the season, a figure which 21 individual defensive tackles can match or exceed. Last week they allowed seven yards per carry against the New Orleans Saints, and the game before Matt Forte had 145 yards and seven players miss tackles on him. They are so desperate that they went against their philosophy of building with young players through the draft that they added Albert Haynesworth (+0.5 run defense) to the mix. Even with him, the Texans run game should be dominant as usual.

Buccaneers Defensive Weapon Neutralized

The only star on the Buccaneersí defense has been third year defensive end Michael Bennett (+17.6). He has been averaging three pressures a game as well as two stops. His play against the run has been unmatched by any other defensive end in the league, and the amount of pressure he brings doesnít hurt his case at all.

The problem is that he spends over 95% of his snaps lined up at left defensive end, which puts him across from PFF All Pro right tackle Eric Winston (+8.1). Over the last four games he has allowed just three overall pressures, and no other right tackle in the AFC has a higher run block rating than him. The best right tackle that Bennett has faced prior to this point is Tyson Clabo (+2.8) who is having a down year, and he has faced a few backups which has also helped his performance. It will be interesting to see if Bennett can step up against this quality tackle.

Attacking Houstonís Weakness

If there is a weakness anywhere on the Texans team, itís at the second cornerback spot. The Texans are starting second year Kareem Jackson (-3.9 coverage), who over the last three weeks has taken 63% of the snaps. The other 37% of snaps go to Jason Allen (-3.5 coverage) who plays for a few drives at a time each game. Jackson has allowed 63.6% of passes thrown his way to be caught for an average of 15.5 yards per reception which are both high. While Allenís numbers are better in both of those categories, he has allowed 88 yards after the catch which is high considering his limited snaps. If you want to find success in the passing game, it would clearly be against whichever of these two is on the field; but for that to happen a Tampa Bay receiver would need to step up. The man mostly likely capable of this is Dezmon Briscoe (+0.3) who has caught 81% of passes thrown his way for a solid 14.2 yards per catch. He has only been targeted more than four times once this year, but give the opportunity he might be able to shine.


http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/11/11/three-to-focus-on-texans-bucs/

ObsiWan
11-11-2011, 07:03 PM
Where's 76Texan? Surely you aren't going to let that last paragraph go unchallenged..??
:D

Attacking Houstonís Weakness

If there is a weakness anywhere on the Texans team, itís at the second cornerback spot. The Texans are starting second year Kareem Jackson (-3.9 coverage), who over the last three weeks has taken 63% of the snaps. The other 37% of snaps go to Jason Allen (-3.5 coverage) who plays for a few drives at a time each game. Jackson has allowed 63.6% of passes thrown his way to be caught for an average of 15.5 yards per reception which are both high. While Allenís numbers are better in both of those categories, he has allowed 88 yards after the catch which is high considering his limited snaps. If you want to find success in the passing game, it would clearly be against whichever of these two is on the field; but for that to happen a Tampa Bay receiver would need to step up. The man mostly likely capable of this is Dezmon Briscoe (+0.3) who has caught 81% of passes thrown his way for a solid 14.2 yards per catch. He has only been targeted more than four times once this year, but give the opportunity he might be able to shine.

thunderkyss
11-11-2011, 08:05 PM
Where's 76Texan? Surely you aren't going to let that last paragraph go unchallenged..??
:D

Why not, it says exactly what he's been saying. Kj isn't perfect, but -3.9 isn't terrible. It's bad, just not as bad as many here believe.

Also as has been mentioned by the guys who defend starting Kj of Jason Allen. 88 yards after the catch. That turns a 200 yard passing day into a 288 yard passing day. Even though Allen may be better in coverage & will eventually get an INt (or two or three) Kj's physicality makes him a better option to limit the opponents gains.

Kj is also getting better at the LOS (granted, against less than elite talent, but last year that didn't seem to matter). Imagine if teams #2 receiver have to work their asses off to get 5 yards past Kareem Jackson. Your sack total will increase 2 fold.

thunderkyss
11-11-2011, 08:32 PM
If you are wondering what Vegas is saying, Texans -3....... 45.5 o/u

76Texan
11-11-2011, 11:41 PM
Where's 76Texan? Surely you aren't going to let that last paragraph go unchallenged..??
:D

Obsi, I don't know how many times I've repeated that individual stats are very unreliable.

Let me take a few extreme examples:

1. A pass rusher (let's say a 43 DE or a 34 OLB) gets 10 sacks in 16 games with no blocker on him vs. one who gets 3 sacks with at least one guy blocking.
You can't tell me that the guy who gets 10 sacks is a monster and the guy who gets 3 sacks is a terrible pass rusher.

2. A QB who has all the time in the world in the pocket completes 70% of his passes while another only completes 50% of his passes when he faces pressure all day long is another extreme example.

Put it together, a CB who receives less safety help and less pass rush help (for whatever reason) will always be at a disavantage as compared with another one who does (receiving more help).

76Texan
11-11-2011, 11:55 PM
At the moment, I'm more concerned with the TEs and a guy named Preston Parker.

This Parker guy has yet to start a game for them, but he can be the X factor in both their passing and return game.

Our nickel, SS, and whichever LB who has the task on these guys need to be on the alert.
If we can take away the hot from Freeman, we can help ourselves tremendously.

Thorn
11-12-2011, 05:19 AM
We're going into the bye week at 7-3. :)

Playoffs
11-12-2011, 07:56 PM
Why not, it says exactly what he's been saying. Kj isn't perfect, but -3.9 isn't terrible. It's bad, just not as bad as many here believe...

This article on the 2011 defensive transformation shows comparative 2010 performance grades that give some perspective:

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=86834