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View Full Version : NFL Films Week 8: Jaguars vs. Texans Preview


TejasTom
10-28-2011, 08:52 AM
http://www.nfl.com/videos/auto/09000d5d82386a7a/Week-8-Jaguars-vs-Texans-Preview

Thorn
10-28-2011, 09:43 AM
Both our defenses are good, but our offense is light years ahead of theirs. I feel pretty comfortable about this one.

thunderkyss
10-28-2011, 10:43 AM
Both our defenses are good, but our offense is light years ahead of theirs. I feel pretty comfortable about this one.

Joe Flacco has a 52% completion percentage. Against the Texans he completed 60% of his passes & threw for his second highest yards this season with 305 yards.

I'm not going to say Gabbart looked great, but watching a few things (the recent AFC Playbook specifically) It looks like he & his receivers are just not in sync. They get open & he throws a bad pass, or he hits them in their hands & they drop it.

They run a vertical offense, sending their receivers deep quite often. It just so happens that Kareem has a problem with the deep routes, so we know they're going to get open. If this is the week they decide to get in sync, it could be a long day.

They are, however ranked 28th in sacks allowed. If our pass rush shows up, that may be our saving grace, limiting some of their down-field opportunities. But a vertical passing game & MJD...... they could very well score on us a couple of times... 2 TDs maybe, and with their booming kicker 3 field goals is also possible. 23 points. Maybe.

Their defense is ranked 6th. 6th in passing defense (14 sacks) & 10th in rushing giving up only 4 TDs. 23+ points may be hard to come by.

If we are going to get to the play-offs, then this has got to be a game where we do what we do, regardless what their defense allows us to do. Matt has to read their defense & make good choices. 3 games in a row with no interceptions... how likely is that?

In two of the three games we lost, Matt's QB rating has been below 100. We have won only once when Matt's QB rating was below 100... Indianapolis. We've only lost once when Matt's QB rating was above 100... New Orleans. So Matt has to have a good game.

& Matt appears to have good days when we are running the ball well. Our losses to Oakland & Baltimore were both low output days for our running game. New Orleans, we also failed to reach the 100 yard rusher mark.

So while our offense is better than the Jags Offense, the question really is how much better is our offense than their defense & how much better is our defense than their offense.

False Start
10-28-2011, 11:09 AM
Cool video. Herring was tearing the LBs a new one, that was great.

infantrycak
10-28-2011, 11:24 AM
Joe Flacco has a 52% completion percentage. Against the Texans he completed 60% of his passes & threw for his second highest yards this season with 305 yards.

And had no TD's and a crap QB rating. So what? If it isn't impressive for Schaub to throw for 416 yards inefficiently then it isn't impressive for some other QB to throw for 305 yards inefficiently.

thunderkyss
10-28-2011, 11:27 AM
And had no TD's and a crap QB rating. So what? If it isn't impressive for Schaub to throw for 416 yards inefficiently then it isn't impressive for some other QB to throw for 305 yards inefficiently.

Not really talking about being "impressed" by Flacco.

Flacco completed over his season avg. It is possible that Gabbert may complete over his season avg (vs the Texans) one or two of those deep passes can wake up a Jacksonville offense that has been struggling.

Didn't mean to imply Flacco was in anyway better than Schaub, you can continue with your mancrush on 'ole noodle arm.

Texans_Chick
10-28-2011, 12:36 PM
Not really talking about being "impressed" by Flacco.

Flacco completed over his season avg. It is possible that Gabbert may complete over his season avg (vs the Texans) one or two of those deep passes can wake up a Jacksonville offense that has been struggling.

Didn't mean to imply Flacco was in anyway better than Schaub, you can continue with your mancrush on 'ole noodle arm.

Baltimore has been playing much better at home than on the road this year.

As for Schaub, I'm not sure that anyone other than his wife might have a mancrush on him, but referring to him as 'ole noodle arm is a bit silly.

He's 4th in the league for passing average despite missing Andre Johnson for a number of games. That's not usually found in captain checkdowns.

With a better defense that is allowing the Texans run the ball more near the end of games, Schaub is still on pace for 4,326 yards, 27 TDs, and 11 INTs. All players have strengths and weaknesses, but I'm not sure about the why behind negative nickname.

76Texan
10-28-2011, 05:48 PM
Let's look at it this way.

The longest pass I think I've seen Schaub ever throw is some 43 yards (from the LOS to where the receiver caught the ball; I'm not quite sure how high, but let's just say about 10 feet above the ground max).
That translates to approximately another 3-4 yards if the receiver catches the ball about chest high.
And let's use this as a reference to measure how far the throw is.

(This doesn't take into account the 7-step drop, which is another 9 yards or so.)

Based upon this, Schaub doesn't have the biggest arm in the league, nor does he have the weakest arm.
But he's closer to the bottom than to the top.

This year, Schaub hasn't thrown any ball that far yet.
I'm sure of this because I keep the gamebook for all the games readily.
There's a portion at the end showing the ten longest plays for each team.
It gives me the exact time the plays occured.
I can then bring up the game to that exact time to review that play.

I can do the same for the previous year, but I've done that already during the off-season. (This is where the 43-yd mark came from.)
I'm not so sure about 2008, but I know I did spend at least 100 hours on each game, I don't think I can miss a long pass by much (distance-wise).

That (the deep throw) has never stopped the Texans from having a good passing game though.

So while having a cannon arm is a plus for a QB, IMHO, it's a luxury for a west coast team.

Schaub's arm strength is good enough to play in this system.
If he can continues to work on his throwing motion, I think he can improve his distance a few more yards (maybe five ???)
This offense can be even more lethal then.

A QB who likes to throw the ball way downfield tends to have less accuracy (overthrowing a receiver for example), and therefore, misses a great opportunity for a big play.)
If you have a QB who can throw the deep ball with accuracy, you will have to pay a ton.
Then you will have to pay another ton for a WR who can run fast and catches the ball well.
What about your #2, your #3, your TEs, your RBs.
Can you maximize their usage?
There's got to be a point of diminishing return.

On top of that, your defense will be out there again and again when your offense scores too quickly.
The opponent methodically marches a long march downfield.
Your offense may get out of rythm.
The QB may get cold and become a little more inacurate.

Noodle-arm Joe Montana never had a problem in the passing game nor in winning games.

A case in point here can be found in comparing Steve Young and Joe Montana.
It's quite an interesting read:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/155771-joe-montana-vs-steve-young-an-extensive-look-inside-the-numbers

CloakNNNdagger
10-28-2011, 06:07 PM
For the third week in a row, the Jacksonville Jaguars will open as at least 9.5 point underdogs. The Jaguars ended as 11 point dogs to the Baltimore Ravens, not only covering the points but beating the Ravens outright. Heading into Houston against their AFC South rivals the Houston Texans, the Jaguars open up as a 9.5 underdog.

The total for the match up between the Texans and the Jaguars is just 41.5 points, but it features one offense that's explosive in Houston (26 points per game) and an anemic offense in Jacksonville (12 points per game).

The Jags beating down the 11 point dog tag against the Ravens bothers me, despite the fact that most of the OTHER numbers point to us winning.

Thorn
10-28-2011, 06:20 PM
The Jags beating down the 11 point dog tag against the Ravens bothers me, despite the fact that most of the OTHER numbers point to us winning.

I don't care this week. I'm throwing caution to the wind and snorting the koolaid powder. The Kittens are going down Sunday.

disaacks3
10-28-2011, 06:22 PM
The Jags beating down the 11 point dog tag against the Ravens bothers me, despite the fact that most of the OTHER numbers point to us winning.

Maybe I should be more scared of this matchup than I am, but if this team can't beat a ROOKIE QB (not named cam Newton), then we're doomed anyway. Texans by 10.

CloakNNNdagger
10-28-2011, 06:57 PM
I don't care this week. I'm throwing caution to the wind and snorting the koolaid powder. The Kittens are going down Sunday.

Maybe I should be more scared of this matchup than I am, but if this team can't beat a ROOKIE QB (not named cam Newton), then we're doomed anyway. Texans by 10.

I said "bothers me"...........not enough to feel that we will not gut the kittens.:pirate:

TejasTom
10-28-2011, 07:42 PM
The longest pass I think I've seen Schaub ever throw is some 43 yards (from the LOS to where the receiver caught the ball; I'm not quite sure how high, but let's just say about 10 feet above the ground max).
That translates to approximately another 3-4 yards if the receiver catches the ball about chest high.
And let's use this as a reference to measure how far the throw is.

(This doesn't take into account the 7-step drop, which is another 9 yards or so.)


The longest one from this year was in preseason against New Orleans. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg65pfCKd5I at 0:55

It is right in line with what you are saying.

Fred
10-28-2011, 07:51 PM
I'm not so sure about 2008, but I know I did spend at least 100 hours on each game,...

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Wow! At least 1600+ hours a year! Most people on this board don't spend that much time at work (at least not working). The only things most of us spend over 1600 hours a year doing is sleeping and getting drunk.

Speedy
10-28-2011, 09:50 PM
I said "bothers me"...........not enough to feel that we will not gut the kittens.:pirate:

Yeah, every game "bothers me". Any team can win in this league any time they step on the field against anybody. Ravens crush the Steelers, Steelers crush the Jags, Jags beat the Ravens. Go figure.

You win games you're not expected to (Colts Christmas Eve), lose games you're expected to win, that stuff happens all the time.

The Texans are coming off a big division win, on the road, might have a W penciled in for these next 2 home games, and that looks like a classic setup for coming out flat in this game. Going up against a pretty good defense will likely help them look pretty flat too. A couple of turnovers, some brain fart penalties, a pick 6, punt return, lots of things can happen to blow a game like this against somebody you should probably roll.

That said, 31-13 Texans.

76Texan
10-28-2011, 10:19 PM
The longest one from this year was in preseason against New Orleans. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg65pfCKd5I at 0:55

It is right in line with what you are saying.

That's more or less the extent of if;
(even though the roll out / bootleg is different from the 7-step drop.)

Schaub has also improved in this part of his game such that he can get into his throw a little better/quicker than the previous year(s).

I've heard the pros (coaches and former QBs) raved about our play-action pass as one of the best (if not the best) currently.

It involves more than just Schaub.
The thing to keep in mind is that when you're among the best at it, even if your running game doesn't work, the defense still has to account for it.

Sometimes we can set it up and it results in a run that go nowhere.
The next one, however, can be a long pass play.
It can be to a WR, a TE, a FB, or even the RB that fakes the play action.
The initial pass may be a medium one, but the pass catcher can be so open he has a lot of room to run after the catch.

Akin to Utah's pick and roll between Stockton/Malone (or somebody else) in basketball, you snooze, you loose.

But basically, as far as Schaub's arm strength, that's about it!
And overall, it works quite well for us (our bread and butter, really).

76Texan
10-28-2011, 10:27 PM
Wow! At least 1600+ hours a year! Most people on this board don't spend that much time at work (at least not working). The only things most of us spend over 1600 hours a year doing is sleeping and getting drunk.

LOL, I do the drunk part mostly while watching football so that doesn't really add up to much of the time.

A few who knows me, knew that a took about a 2-1/2 yr sabbatical from work.
I woke up watching football and went to sleep watching football, roughly 350 days of the year (probably more).
The other days were saved for seriously getting drunk or major holidays/occasions.
6 hours of sleep and 8 hours of other activities (non-strenous due to no kid) still leaves a guy with 10 hours a day for football.
That's 3,500 hours.
(And I was generous with the 8-hours-for-other-activities part, LOL!)

CloakNNNdagger
10-29-2011, 10:17 PM
An interesting set of Jags stat going into the Ravens game that I hope Kubiak and our RBs have taken note of:

The Jaguars were allowing 3.09 yards a carry between the tackles, the sixth-lowest average in the league. Thatís a good indicator of the effectiveness of Knighton and Alualu. The run average number against the Jaguars jumped to 4.02 to the left and 5.58 to the right.

TejasTom
10-30-2011, 12:14 AM
An interesting set of Jags stat going into the Ravens game that I hope Kubiak and our RBs have taken note of:

The Jaguars were allowing 3.09 yards a carry between the tackles, the sixth-lowest average in the league. Thatís a good indicator of the effectiveness of Knighton and Alualu. The run average number against the Jaguars jumped to 4.02 to the left and 5.58 to the right.

These numbers will go up tomorrow.

TejasTom
10-30-2011, 12:21 AM
I woke up watching football and went to sleep watching football, roughly 350 days of the year (probably more).

A few thoughts:
1. Good thing you haven't discovered porn.
2. Glad your not addicted to football.
3. And for serious one, why aren't you working for Texans? Sounds like you've spent more time breaking down film than all Texan's coaches combined.

b0ng
10-30-2011, 01:27 AM
The Jags beating down the 11 point dog tag against the Ravens bothers me, despite the fact that most of the OTHER numbers point to us winning.

Meh, betting lines aren't really what Vegas thinks is going to happen, it's how they think they can extract the most bets out of people. I think that line is way too high tbh, and I see this being a 3 - 7 point game max really. Need to get Daniels/Dreesen more involved and hopefully we have a healthy Casey we can do a few plays with, even if he is on a snap count.