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View Full Version : ESPN Playoff Predictor. Texans #3 seed


gtexan02
10-25-2011, 02:10 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7141042/introducing-espn-insider-nfl-playoffs-predictor

Interesting stuff.

Predicted record is 12-4 (I'll take the under)
Playoff odds are 72%

If everything plays out exactly as expected by the numbers, we'd be the #3 seed going into a game home game against the Steelers in game 1.

Some other strange predictions are the 49ers ending up 14-2 and given a 95% chance of playoffs. I guess part of that is their awful division

DX-TEX
10-25-2011, 02:14 PM
I aint paying for an NESPN account.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Yahoos playoff generator and its free.

gtexan02
10-25-2011, 02:18 PM
I aint paying for an NESPN account.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Yahoos playoff generator and its free.

THe reason that ESPNs is not free like yahoos:

One thing you can definitely say about the NFL is that it's never boring. Each Sunday brings in a new darling, a new goat and a new trendy team to replace the past week's edition. Consider the odds before the Ravens-Jags "Monday Night Football" tilt, or how Tennessee and the ageless Matt Hasselbeck were a hot commodity headed into a home game against the beat-up Texans. The NFL needs just one game to chart a whole new playoff course.

Despite all of the seismic change, we're going to do the impossible with help from our nerdy friends at numberFire -- we'll tell you whether or not your favorite team is going to make the playoffs. Call it NFL Playoffs Predictor, and if you're a Jets fan, this week you can add on some four-letter words, as well.

Starting today, every week we'll apply proprietary efficiency statistics to project the rest of the season in order to give you a highly accurate playoffs projection. We won't get out the spreadsheets, but suffice to say the algorithms factor in everything from weather to injuries to overall trends. Of course, all of this is still highly volatile, due to the fact we're not halfway through the season, but the model can get us close. So check back each week as the numbers continue to paint a clearer bracket portrait.

I'm happy to translate any info that people without an insider account are interested in

thunderkyss
10-25-2011, 02:31 PM
Some other strange predictions are the 49ers ending up 14-2 and given a 95% chance of playoffs. I guess part of that is their awful division

I was arguing (in another thread) about the 49ers "sudden turnaround" & saying that it won't last..... it seldom does. Remember the Rams got off to a great start last year... then fizzed away. several other teams over time.

So I was saying the 49ers weren't going to win 10 games & may not win their division.

Then I looked at their schedule. They are 5-1 now, their remaining schedule is:


Browns - W -
Skins - W -
Giants - L -
Cardinals -W -
Ravens - L -
Rams - W -
Cardinals - W -
Steelers - L -
SeaHawks - W -
Rams - W -



If Frank Gore stays healthy, there's really no reason to believe they won't win out. They've got a chance in every one of those games unless they get in a shoot-out with Alex Smith pulling the trigger.

Maybe the Cardinals get it together by then.

Maybe Bradford & Lloyd get it together.

But right now, It's hard to see them not winning 12 games. Especially since I think they'll beat the Steelers, since they won't be making the play-offs this year (Super Bowl slump).

But that all depends on Frank Gore staying healthy.

TexanSam
10-25-2011, 02:44 PM
I know it's very early, but if we do get a home playoff game I wonder how the tickets will be sold? Do season ticket holders get first dibs at buying tickets or will it be open to everyone? I assume PSL holders will have highest priority.

TheMatrix31
10-25-2011, 02:51 PM
SF's success depends on Alex Smith not being Alex Smith.


....as far as our #3, sounds about right if we win the division. Don't want to play Pittsburgh though, considering they've already picked it up pretty nicely since their sketchy start.

False Start
10-25-2011, 02:58 PM
I aint paying for an NESPN account.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

Yahoos playoff generator and its free.

On that site, if you select "defensive rank" they have the Jags winning the didvison...:heh:

GP
10-25-2011, 02:58 PM
Like a weatherman trying to predict weather 30+ days out, it's too early for them to putting up playoff models like this.

I'd say with 4 or 5 games left to play, a person can begin calculating things.

Right now, the "weather patterns" are not firmed up and can change based on a lot of factors. I didn't expect us to obliterate the Titans in their house. I didn't expect the ravens to blow a game to Jax in their empty Tarpvill stadium with a so-so rookie QB named Gabbert.

I just think it's too soon. Week 9, and on from there, seems to be when I think you can even have an inkling of who is good and who was pretending thus far. And i bet with 4 games left, you can put some really solid analytics into the playoff models. Just my $0.02....

But yeah, it would be interesting to see what info they pour in there and how it crunches the numbers. Weather, trends in how your team fares in the road, how you fare vs. an opponent historically, injury numbers, current trends in your offense and defense. And it all can triangulate to show you a fairly decent "odds" on your chances. I dig it. Keep us filled in.

brakos82
10-25-2011, 03:00 PM
Just noticed that the AFC North teams have Def rankings 1-4.

XI CMURDER IX
10-25-2011, 04:01 PM
Just noticed that the AFC North teams have Def rankings 1-4.

Even the Bungles??? :mariopalm:

houstonspartan
10-25-2011, 04:07 PM
I know it's very early, but if we do get a home playoff game I wonder how the tickets will be sold? Do season ticket holders get first dibs at buying tickets or will it be open to everyone? I assume PSL holders will have highest priority.

PSL and season ticket holders get first dibs, and are actually required to purchase tickets. Then, I'm assuming, it opens up to the general public.

DX-TEX
10-25-2011, 04:50 PM
Just noticed that the AFC North teams have Def rankings 1-4.

AFC north is playing the NFC West & AFC South so....

gtexan02
10-25-2011, 04:54 PM
Just a quick, totally off topic note:

For those of you without ESPN Insider, don't pay the $7 a month or $3 a month or whatever they charge for it. If you subscribe to teh magazine, you can frequently get it for <$5 a year. It comes with free Insider Access. If anyone is interested, let me know and I can PM you if I see another deal come up

DocBar
10-25-2011, 05:01 PM
LINK (http://footballoutsiders.com/)


Houston:89.7% to make the playoffs and 7.2% to win Super Bowl. I'm quite sure the Texans have never been mentioned anywhere near 7.2% chance to win the Super Bowl after week 7.

disaacks3
10-25-2011, 05:09 PM
I know it's very early, but if we do get a home playoff game I wonder how the tickets will be sold? Do season ticket holders get first dibs at buying tickets or will it be open to everyone? I assume PSL holders will have highest priority.

PSL and season ticket holders get first dibs, and are actually required to purchase tickets. Then, I'm assuming, it opens up to the general public.

Here's the legalease from the PSL agreement.

Except as provided herein, Licensee has the right and obligation to purchase at a price determined by HNFL (the "Ticket Fee") season tickets for each Seat for all Team home games (pre-season and regular season) for as long as the Team plays its home games in the Stadium. Licensee also has the right and obligation to purchase tickets for each Seat for any Team post-season games played in the Stadium (excluding Super Bowl games).
(b) If Licensee does not purchase season tickets for Licensee's designated Stadium Seat(s) by a specified deadline each year as determined by HNFL, then Licensee's rights and obligation to purchase season tickets hereunder will terminate automatically without any notice given or action taken by HNFL or the Licensor, and Licensee will forfeit all monies previously paid to the Licensor and/or HNFL
hereunder, all rights to buy season tickets associated with the Seat(s), Licensee's PSL for the
upcoming NFL season and all NFL seasons that follow. The Licensor will have the right to relicense
the forfeited PSL with no further obligation to the Licensee.
(c) If Licensee does not purchase tickets for Team post-season games played in the Stadium by the date specified by HNFL in its sole discretion, then HNFL may sell such tickets to persons other than
Licensee. If HNFL does not sell such tickets, then Licensee shall remain obligated to pay for such
tickets and Licensee's right to transfer the PSL will be suspended until such time as Licensee has paid
for such tickets plus applicable late charges.

DX-TEX
10-25-2011, 05:12 PM
http://gifsoup.com/view/189820/jim-mora-playoffs-o.gif

:koolaid::koolaid:

Double Barrel
10-25-2011, 05:15 PM
Man, a 12-4 record would blow my freakin' mind.

Seriously, that's only 1 loss for the rest of the season?!

Heck, 10-6 is doable and that would be a major natural high as a Texans fan.

I don't even want to daydream these thoughts. It's been so long that I can't help but daydream, though!

:texflag:

thunderkyss
10-25-2011, 05:19 PM
Like a weatherman trying to predict weather 30+ days out, it's too early for them to putting up playoff models like this.

I bet they've got more hits on their site because of that "calculator" than anything else they put up in the last three months combined... which is the point.

I'd say with 4 or 5 games left to play, a person can begin calculating things.

Right now, the "weather patterns" are not firmed up and can change based on a lot of factors.

I hear ya.... but we're talking about it & that's all it's meant to do.

DX-TEX
10-25-2011, 05:19 PM
Man, a 12-4 record would blow my freakin' mind.

Seriously, that's only 1 loss for the rest of the season?!

Heck, 10-6 is doable and that would be a major natural high as a Texans fan.

I don't even want to daydream these thoughts. It's been so long that I can't help but daydream, though!

:texflag:

Take it a step further: clinching #1 seed in AFC on Thursday night, primetime against the Colts in Indy.:http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y300/MechDX/texanskoolaid.jpg

badboy
10-25-2011, 09:17 PM
The by week coming late may now be an advantage going into playoffs. Then if we get another week between end of season and first playoff game? That would heal a bunch of injuries.

gtexan02
11-01-2011, 02:04 PM
Despite the ESPN-hate generated from the last post, heres an update for everyone:

Texans get the #3 seed, win the AFC South
Record 10-6
Playoff odds - 82% (+10% from last week)

Capitalizing on an incredibly weak AFC South, Houston should cruise into the playoffs. The Texans have dominated in the passing game on both offense and defense, ranking No. 2 and No. 3 in the AFC respectively.

6 teams are:
1. NE Pats (90.8%)
2. Pitt Steelers (76.7%)
3. Hou Texans (82%)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8, 39.5% chance of playoffs. Division is a mess apparently)
5. Buffalo Bills (11-5) (86.1%)
6. Balt Ravens (11-5) (72%)

Bengals and Titans just miss out, at 10-6 and 8-8 respectively

Lurvinator11
11-01-2011, 04:14 PM
Despite the ESPN-hate generated from the last post, heres an update for everyone:

Texans get the #3 seed, win the AFC South
Record 10-6
Playoff odds - 82% (+10% from last week)



6 teams are:
1. NE Pats (90.8%)
2. Pitt Steelers (76.7%)
3. Hou Texans (82%)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8, 39.5% chance of playoffs. Division is a mess apparently)
5. Buffalo Bills (11-5) (86.1%)
6. Balt Ravens (11-5) (72%)

Bengals and Titans just miss out, at 10-6 and 8-8 respectively


A home game against the ravens, I wonder how that would go.....?

thunderkyss
11-01-2011, 05:04 PM
A home game against the ravens, I wonder how that would go.....?


We'll kick that ass, that;s how that'll go.

Air Canada
11-01-2011, 10:04 PM
A home game against the ravens, I wonder how that would go.....?

A Texans win... Just as long as they leave those officials in Baltimore.... Dre will be back to tear them apart. :uchicken:

TexansFanatic
11-01-2011, 10:10 PM
First and second place division winners get a bye.

Second and third place division winners get a home game.

Looking forward not just to a playoff berth, but a home game playoff victory right out of the gate.

Air Canada
11-01-2011, 10:31 PM
First and second place division winners get a bye.

Second and third place division winners get a home game.

Looking forward not just to a playoff berth, but a home game playoff victory right out of the gate.

I just have a feeling we get that #2 Seed :fans:

honored82
11-01-2011, 10:43 PM
Only the steelers are ahead of us with 6 wins, but we have beaten them. Thats good for head-2-head record. Ravens, cinci, pats and bills all have 5 wins. We control our destiny and with an easy schedule #2 seed is within reach.

MistaRed
11-01-2011, 10:52 PM
12-4 should put us in the running for a first round bye. Either way a home playoff game would be an early birthday present for me.

Air Canada
11-01-2011, 11:14 PM
This was my crazy prediction in another thread.. :kitten:.

Since everyone is doing the seedings....

Going by the remaining schedule for each team at this point.. This is how I predict things to end up if these teams continue to play like how they have been and how I feel things appear they will shake up.

Division Winners:

AFC South- Texans #2
AFC North- Steelers #3
AFC East- Patriots #1
AFC West- Chargers #4

Wild Card teams:

AFC East- Bills
AFC North- Ravens

Wild Card games:

Bills @ Chargers
Ravens @ Steelers

Divisional Round:

Steelers @ Texans
Bills @ Patriots

AFC Championship:

Texans @ Patriots :shades:

* Now we may not win that 1st home game, but I do believe that we will have a 1st rd. bye. :fans:

Wouldn't it be nice :D

TheDream34
11-02-2011, 02:06 AM
I hope we don't play Pittsburgh in the playoffs. We might have beaten them this season but the steelers are a different animal in the playoffs. I actually would rather play the patriots than the steelers

TdotTexas2Step
11-02-2011, 02:12 AM
I hope we don't play Pittsburgh in the playoffs. We might have beaten them this season but the steelers are a different animal in the playoffs. I actually would rather play the patriots than the steelers

I agree. I mean, I truly believe this team can keep pace with anybody, but the playoffs is such a different kind of football. I'd love to matchup with the Bills or the Bengals (both very capable teams mind you) but we'd at least be in the same boat in regards to experience.

I fear that it might take at least a quarter or half for us to get settled in and get the jitters out, and against a team like Baltimore or Pitt, it may be too late then.

Regardless, I just want playoff football!

thunderkyss
11-02-2011, 03:11 AM
I hope we don't play Pittsburgh in the playoffs. We might have beaten them this season but the steelers are a different animal in the playoffs. I actually would rather play the patriots than the steelers

Either Pittsburgh or the Patriots are going to be hard outs. They know how to win in the play-offs.

But hard doesn't mean impossible.

TexanSam
11-02-2011, 06:03 AM
All this playoff prediction has me worried. Feels like we're thinking way too fa ahead. I can't help but enjoy it though...just hope the team doesn't get too full of themselves reading/hearing about it and forget that they still have to play football to get there.

El Tejano
11-02-2011, 08:25 AM
All this playoff prediction has me worried. Feels like we're thinking way too fa ahead. I can't help but enjoy it though...just hope the team doesn't get too full of themselves reading/hearing about it and forget that they still have to play football to get there.

I'll enjoy this kinda talk after I see us with a winning record in November.

gtexan02
11-08-2011, 01:13 PM
Texans now highest percentage of any team in the AFC at ~92%

Predict us going 11-5, getting the #2 seed, and having a 1st round bye to face winner of SD and Pitt