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Texans_Chick
08-23-2011, 08:54 PM
Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really. (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/football-outsiders-predicts-texans-to-win-afc-south-really/)

Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

Working on a followup post to this.

Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.

Jackie Chiles
08-23-2011, 09:21 PM
Hopefully they hit on us like they did on the Chiefs last year.

ObsiWan
08-23-2011, 09:27 PM
Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really. (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/football-outsiders-predicts-texans-to-win-afc-south-really/)

Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

Working on a followup post to this.

Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.

At least their bandwagon ticket is based on some science. Checkout these Bleacher Report predictions (http://http://bleacherreport.com/articles/815579-houston-texans-eight-bold-predictions-for-2011#/articles/815579-houston-texans-eight-bold-predictions-for-2011).

ArlingtonTexan
08-23-2011, 09:33 PM
They have always been one of the more pessimistic outfits towards the Texans, fwiw.

DocBar
08-23-2011, 10:07 PM
I'm cool with this. It's not like there'll be an asterisk by the div. champ banner in the rafters of Relaint.

thunderkyss
08-23-2011, 10:08 PM
Football Outsiders predicts Texans to win AFC South. Really. (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/football-outsiders-predicts-texans-to-win-afc-south-really/)

Predicts 9-7 highest probability to win division.

Working on a followup post to this.

Football Outsiders is not one of the publications that says the Texans are going to the playoffs every year. This is the first year they've predicted Texans winning. Last year, they predicted 6 wins or less.

Didn't they predict our 6-10 season because of injuries? I've been trying to find your blog about that, but couldn't find it.

Crushing56
08-24-2011, 02:12 AM
Predictions are like mock drafts. They mean nothing.

thunderkyss
08-24-2011, 08:51 AM
Didn't they predict our 6-10 season because of injuries? I've been trying to find your blog about that, but couldn't find it.

I should have known. You provided a link (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2010/07/football-outsiders-predicts-the-texans-to-win-6-games-or-less/) in your story. Not that I support McNair's decision to keep GK & Rick Smith (I would've swore one of the two would be run out by now), but this might have gone into his decision somewhat.

Offensively, Gary has been able to be successful despite injury or what ever small problem popped up. Defensively, Gary & Frank Bush did a pitiful job just keeping pace.

They were hit early & often last year. Ben Tate out for the season..... no affect, we're still a top 10 rushing team, top 3 offense, & have the leading rusher. Duane Brown suspended for 4 games, no affect Schaub threw for 4,000 yards & was among the least sacked QBs of 2010. We missed Andre for what, 3 games?

We lose Brian Cushing for 4 games... we can't stop crap. We lose Bullman before the season started, not a gamer, you wouldn't think it would be a big deal, but he was a major part of our DL rotation. We lose Connor Barwin game 1... We lose Demeco after 6 games, we lose Mario after 8 games. We never recovered, never stabilized.

I'm not making excuses for Gary. I don't think he should still be here. Just trying to put the pieces together, for why he is.

Texans_Chick
08-24-2011, 12:04 PM
I should have known. You provided a link (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2010/07/football-outsiders-predicts-the-texans-to-win-6-games-or-less/) in your story. Not that I support McNair's decision to keep GK & Rick Smith (I would've swore one of the two would be run out by now), but this might have gone into his decision somewhat.

Offensively, Gary has been able to be successful despite injury or what ever small problem popped up. Defensively, Gary & Frank Bush did a pitiful job just keeping pace.

They were hit early & often last year. Ben Tate out for the season..... no affect, we're still a top 10 rushing team, top 3 offense, & have the leading rusher. Duane Brown suspended for 4 games, no affect Schaub threw for 4,000 yards & was among the least sacked QBs of 2010. We missed Andre for what, 3 games?

We lose Brian Cushing for 4 games... we can't stop crap. We lose Bullman before the season started, not a gamer, you wouldn't think it would be a big deal, but he was a major part of our DL rotation. We lose Connor Barwin game 1... We lose Demeco after 6 games, we lose Mario after 8 games. We never recovered, never stabilized.

I'm not making excuses for Gary. I don't think he should still be here. Just trying to put the pieces together, for why he is.


Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.

Texans_Chick
08-24-2011, 12:05 PM
They have always been one of the more pessimistic outfits towards the Texans, fwiw.

This is worth pointing out. These are not the people who predict the Texans are going to the playoffs every year.

bo orlando
08-24-2011, 04:41 PM
Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.

They were also high on Wade's history of turning around defenses in his first year. Big reason is probably the simple bounce-back factor of a bad defense patching up some of its holes, but they also noted Wade's scouting acumen. Down year for the AFC south was also emphasized.

thunderkyss
08-24-2011, 06:29 PM
They were also high on Wade's history of turning around defenses in his first year. Big reason is probably the simple bounce-back factor of a bad defense patching up some of its holes, but they also noted Wade's scouting acumen. Down year for the AFC south was also emphasized.

Won't really be much bounce back. We've consistently been near the bottom defensively. 2009 was the fluke.

DocBar
08-24-2011, 06:35 PM
The Football Outsiders article was pretty spot on. I'm more than happy with this years prediction. I say the Texans win 2 SB's in the next 4 yrs. I will personally kill the crow I eat if I'm wrong.

Texans_Chick
08-24-2011, 07:59 PM
The Football Outsiders article was pretty spot on. I'm more than happy with this years prediction. I say the Texans win 2 SB's in the next 4 yrs. I will personally kill the crow I eat if I'm wrong.

I think people will like the follow up post. Interesting Q&A. Will leave link here when I am done with it.

GuerillaBlack
08-24-2011, 08:06 PM
Actually, if you read the entire 6-10 prediction for 2010, it was mostly based on three main factors: 1. youth of defensive starters; 2. noting that the Texans were unusually healthy in 2009 so they predicted that 2010 might be unusually unhealthy, 3. Very difficult predicted strength of schedule. In a mostly parity league, actual strength of schedule matters a great deal between playoff and non-playoff teams. But the long term forecast for the Texans in the 2010 FOA was very positive.

One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.

As they should. The Texans are arguably the most talented young team in the league, imo. And IIRC, our oldest starter on the entire team is AJ, who just turned 30 last month. They just need to make it into the playoffs once and it'll roll on from there. This HAS to be the year though. Has to be. Last decade, the AFC South belonged to the Colts. This decade, it should belong to the Texans. Titans and Jags are poor teams, and the Colts are falling off.

Lucky
08-24-2011, 09:07 PM
One of the reasons why FOA is high on the Texans this year is continuity on their offense and offensive scheme. That would have gone away with no Kubiak.
But the talent (AJ, Foster, Schaub, Daniels, etc.) would have remained. I think any coordinator worth a darn could put together a top 10 offense out of that group. And had McNair pulled in a high profile coach like Cowher, I'm sure Football Outsiders would have looked favorably on the decision.
2009 was the fluke.
The first 12 games (5-7) were the norm.

If Kubiak can't win the division this season, he never will. The Texans should be contending for the Super Bowl, by now. Win, already.

TexansFanatic
08-24-2011, 09:19 PM
Oh my. This is huge news. Every year I get fired up for the Texans and every year TC posts a link to Football Outsiders telling me this isn't the year for the Texans.

This can only mean this is finally the year. Hallelujah!

Thanks for posting this, TC.

bo orlando
08-24-2011, 11:40 PM
Won't really be much bounce back. We've consistently been near the bottom defensively. 2009 was the fluke.

what I/they mean is that when a defense finishes poorly enough that it needs to get a new coordinator, particularly a high-profile one like wade, it will also try to address some of its obvious holes through the draft and free agency (and injured guys might become healthy if that was the problem). this alone can make a bad defense into a mediocre one or a mediocre one into a decent one. even if we'd kept whatshisname as coordinator, the joseph & manning signings, demeco's return to health, drafting of jj watt, quinn moving to safety--- all these things would likely boost the performance of the defense. the book also noted that wade's skill as a personnel evaluator is likely another big factor in achieving this end.

either way, it's uncanny how much defenses have improved in the first year literally everywhere wade's been. gives me hope far more than anything else i've read about how the defense so far.

House of Pain
08-25-2011, 01:42 AM
what I/they mean is that when a defense finishes poorly enough that it needs to get a new coordinator, particularly a high-profile one like wade, it will also try to address some of its obvious holes through the draft and free agency (and injured guys might become healthy if that was the problem). this alone can make a bad defense into a mediocre one or a mediocre one into a decent one. even if we'd kept whatshisname as coordinator, the joseph & manning signings, demeco's return to health, drafting of jj watt, quinn moving to safety--- all these things would likely boost the performance of the defense. the book also noted that wade's skill as a personnel evaluator is likely another big factor in achieving this end.

either way, it's uncanny how much defenses have improved in the first year literally everywhere wade's been. gives me hope far more than anything else i've read about how the defense so far.

That may be true, but there is no way they target those players unless Wade was in the war room. Don't take it from me, take it from the NFL coach with the best damn hair you've ever seen:


What have you learned about Wade?

“I knew what type of person he is. I knew what type of coach he is. I guess I probably learned a lot in the draft room as far as what he looks for in a player. Obviously, I’ve been in a lot of draft rooms with various defensive coordinators. To see the way he went about it with his group of guys was very interesting. It was so cut and dried.

“Normally, you go into the draft, and you may evaluate 500 players and then narrow it down to 50-60 you’re hoping to pull your four or five out of. To watch him get the scope down to 15-20 guys when you’re talking the first three or four rounds was amazing. It was locked in before we went to draft day. He knew exactly what he wanted. He got five of ‘em.”

Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.

beerlover
08-25-2011, 03:01 AM
Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.

I would suggest there has been growth in his (Rick Smith) process, from early failures 07/08 to ever better drafting & smarter free agent acquisitions. Not coincidentally the hiring of better assistant coaches has impacted bottom line for player applications. In the end it may be nothing more than continuity in their system, one with many scars & ugly patches but just goes to show sometimes perseverance does pay off in the end.

:wesmantexanfan:

Lucky
08-25-2011, 06:24 AM
Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.
How does rubber stamping a coach's choice make Smith an "excellent" GM? Charley Casserly could be an excellent GM, if he had the right coach telling him whom to pick.

IDEXAN
08-25-2011, 07:11 AM
I think they got one thing right: I can definitely see 9-7 (or even 8-8) winning this Division in 2011, so it's up for grabbs and Kubiak has his best opportunity yet to finally get the Texans into the playoffs.
Given all of the problems/uncertainty division rivals are experiencing this year including the Peyton Manning injury/availability parameter, short of a major injury to Schaub or AJ, I don't think Kubiak would have a legit excuse for failing to reach post season this year ?

thunderkyss
08-25-2011, 07:44 AM
That may be true, but there is no way they target those players unless Wade was in the war room. Don't take it from me, take it from the NFL coach with the best damn hair you've ever seen:

You know how many DEs we've drafted since Kubiak came to town?

Two. Mario Williams & Connor Barwin.

That doesn't make any sense. Only three DTs. Okoye, Okam, & Mitchell. Most of our DL has been FA acquisitions.

I never thought about that before.


Which hammers down the suspicion that Rick Smith CAN BE an excellent GM but he needs coaches and staff to tell him which players to target.

Fiddy.......

It's also about FAs. Wade did a better job of identifying what he needed. Safeties that could cover. Big DE. Corners that can cover. The guys we brought in before were talented guys & good at what they were scouted for. Corners & safeties that stopped the run. They just weren't worth a crap in coverage. I guess the idea was that the scheme would help them out. We just forgot to put a scheme in place.

But Smith needs to get better at selling this team. Jonathan Joseph & Daneal Manning may be signs of that, but I'm not sold. Wade may be a sign of that, but I don't know if how much influence he had in that decision, or the Frank Bush decision for that matter.

fiasco west
08-25-2011, 07:52 AM
Getting a bit worried now.

Now pretty much everyone is picking the Texans to win the division, we are pretty much the default choice if Manning misses some time. I kinda wanted them to go in as underdogs to the Colts and with a chip on their shoulder.

Now this team is expected to win the division. At least this probably means that heads will roll if they don't.

Thorn
08-25-2011, 08:16 AM
There are to many factors involved in this, which is why predictions are worthless other than as talking points. Which is what we do here anyway.

IF Payton Manning goes down, the Colts are worthless.

IF W. Phillips does his thing, a half way decent defense and our offense can most certainly sneak us into the playoffs, but not to the Super Bowl.

We have an offense that can get us to and win a Super Bowl. But the defense isn't even close to winning a Super Bowl unless Phillips pulls the proverbial rabbit out of his headset. I see no reason we can't make it into the playoffs this year, and make a realistic run for the Super Bowl in 2012.

Maybe. LOL. Predicting the Texans is like predicting the splatter pattern of mashed potatoes dropped from a ladder.

bo orlando
08-25-2011, 10:29 AM
There are to many factors involved in this, which is why predictions are worthless other than as talking points. Which is what we do here anyway.

IF Payton Manning goes down, the Colts are worthless.

IF W. Phillips does his thing, a half way decent defense and our offense can most certainly sneak us into the playoffs, but not to the Super Bowl.

We have an offense that can get us to and win a Super Bowl. But the defense isn't even close to winning a Super Bowl unless Phillips pulls the proverbial rabbit out of his headset. I see no reason we can't make it into the playoffs this year, and make a realistic run for the Super Bowl in 2012.

Maybe. LOL. Predicting the Texans is like predicting the splatter pattern of mashed potatoes dropped from a ladder.

Predictions are worthless in the sense that they don't count in the real W-L column, but I think a well-researched prediction can tell you something about your future and help guide your perceptions.

There are some big flaws with a lot of football outsiders' methodology, but one thing I do find interesting is their conclusion that offenses are really what wins championships not defenses. That doesn't mean you can win a championship with an awful defense, but a middle-of the-pack defense can win a superbowl if your offense is at the top. The opposite is not likely to be true unless the defense is all-time great like the '85 Bears or '01 Ravens.

thunderkyss
08-25-2011, 10:38 AM
I think they got one thing right: I can definitely see 9-7 (or even 8-8) winning this Division in 2011, so it's up for grabbs and Kubiak has his best opportunity yet to finally get the Texans into the playoffs.
Given all of the problems/uncertainty division rivals are experiencing this year including the Peyton Manning injury/availability parameter, short of a major injury to Schaub or AJ, I don't think Kubiak would have a legit excuse for failing to reach post season this year ?

What's happened in Jacksonville? I bet they win 10 games in 2011.

Tits (W)
Jets (L)
Panthers (W)
Saints (L)
Bengals (W)
Steelers (W)
Ravens (L)
Texans (L)
Colts (W)
Browns (W)
Texans (W)
Bucs (W)
Falcons (L)
Tits (W)
Colts (W)

Texans_Chick
08-25-2011, 12:26 PM
Here's the follow up post. One of my favorites of the year:

Q&A with Football Outsiders on their Texans playoff prediction (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/qa-with-football-outsiders-on-their-texans-playoff-prediction/)

Texans_Chick
08-25-2011, 12:33 PM
But the talent (AJ, Foster, Schaub, Daniels, etc.) would have remained. I think any coordinator worth a darn could put together a top 10 offense out of that group. And had McNair pulled in a high profile coach like Cowher, I'm sure Football Outsiders would have looked favorably on the decision.



So you would have enjoyed changing the Texans offensive system with a short off-season while also changing the defensive system? Do you think the productivity would have been the same?

I think that AJ and Foster have outstanding skills, but as for the rest of the offense, they are very much chosen to be good fits for this particular offense.

And even beyond that, these offensive players love playing for Kubiak. In particular, AJ likes playing for Kubiak and in Kubiak's system. It's not his call to make, but that's not something to completely disregard.

Lucky
08-25-2011, 06:22 PM
So you would have enjoyed changing the Texans offensive system with a short off-season while also changing the defensive system? Do you think the productivity would have been the same?

I think that AJ and Foster have outstanding skills, but as for the rest of the offense, they are very much chosen to be good fits for this particular offense.

And even beyond that, these offensive players love playing for Kubiak. In particular, AJ likes playing for Kubiak and in Kubiak's system. It's not his call to make, but that's not something to completely disregard.
Yes, I think McNair should have pulled the plug on Kubiak. I've never hidden or swayed from that opinion. I don't believe that Kubiak can be a championship head coach. I hope I'm proven wrong.

Besides, I don't think this offense had to be dismantled with a Kubiak dismissal. There are plenty of WCO coordinators available each offseason. And Dennison and Knapp were already under contract. If Wade Phillips could keep the good parts of the defensive roster and turn around the defense (we hope), why couldn't another head coach retain the Texans' offense and keep the engine running?

Eight current head coaches went to the playoffs in their initial season with their team. It happens. Kubiak has had 5 years to make it happen, and has failed. 6th time is a charm? Talent and leadership are what separates the winners from the losers. No one can suggest with a straight face that the Texans do not possess the talent to win. The question with this team is, do they have the leadership?

b0ng
08-26-2011, 09:41 AM
What's happened in Jacksonville? I bet they win 10 games in 2011.

Tits (W)
Jets (L)
Panthers (W)
Saints (L)
Bengals (W)
Steelers (W)
Ravens (L)
Texans (L)
Colts (W)
Browns (W)
Texans (W)
Bucs (W)
Falcons (L)
Tits (W)
Colts (W)

What does Jville do so well to get them 11 wins? They used to be a really good defensive team when Mike Smith was their DC but that hasn't been them for a season or two now. I honestly think the Browns are going to be a better team.

thunderkyss
08-26-2011, 11:01 AM
What does Jville do so well to get them 11 wins? They used to be a really good defensive team when Mike Smith was their DC but that hasn't been them for a season or two now. I honestly think the Browns are going to be a better team.

Maybe, I don't know. But they were good enough to get 8 wins a season ago. We always underestimate the Jags.. The Titans too for that matter.

Every year we say that we are better than the Jags & that has rarely shown up in the W-L column. Maybe this year will be different, all I'm saying is 10 wins may not win the division.

House of Pain
08-26-2011, 12:15 PM
How does rubber stamping a coach's choice make Smith an "excellent" GM? Charley Casserly could be an excellent GM, if he had the right coach telling him whom to pick.

Long story short: He was able to pick and sign the players that the staff needs to make their team successful.

We may differ in how we view the GM position. I understand that there are some GMs in all sports, who have superior player evaluation, know exactly how certain players fit into their teams system without any input from the coaches or other areas of the team, and at the same time, be able to be a shrewd negotiator and be cap conscious. Not every team can afford to have someone like that because not many of those types of people exist. Like it or not, people have their strengths and weaknesses.

For the Texans, IMO, Rick Smith has the business and negotiation skills and is capable of getting players to sign with us. However, he lacks having inside sources around the league who can give him the scoop on players. He's probably mediocre at best with his player evaluations. The solution? Have a coaching staff that can give him a ranked list of players they want. To me, that's what Wade and his staff did. They gave Ricky Boy a list and it looks like he got just about anything he wanted. I would think that a GM that was inept as a GM would not be able to land 2 top FAs in a very competitive free agency market unless he was serviceable.

Texans_Chick
08-26-2011, 01:23 PM
Yes, I think McNair should have pulled the plug on Kubiak. I've never hidden or swayed from that opinion. I don't believe that Kubiak can be a championship head coach. I hope I'm proven wrong.

Besides, I don't think this offense had to be dismantled with a Kubiak dismissal. There are plenty of WCO coordinators available each offseason. And Dennison and Knapp were already under contract. If Wade Phillips could keep the good parts of the defensive roster and turn around the defense (we hope), why couldn't another head coach retain the Texans' offense and keep the engine running?

Texans run a very particular brand of WCO. Don't think it would be the same offense with Dennison/Knapp running it. Dennison is familiar with it but I don't want Knapp doing anything with the playbook given his background. If you were going to boot Kubiak, you might as well redo the offensive scheme because you are basically getting rid of the best person to run this particular version of it other than Shanahan Sr.

Kubiak finally got his first choice in offensive coordinators last year with Dennison--a running complement to his passing background. The Texans were 2nd at offensive efficiency last year. I just don't see why you would want to blow everything up when you finally get the experienced staff you want together.

b0ng
08-26-2011, 02:11 PM
Kubiak finally got his first choice in offensive coordinators last year with Dennison--a running complement to his passing background. The Texans were 2nd at offensive efficiency last year. I just don't see why you would want to blow everything up when you finally get the experienced staff you want together.

I think having a guy fumble around on the job for 5 years (don't know how his 6th is yet) is grating to a lot of people who watched guys like Mike Smith and Sean Peyton turn their teams into perennial contenders in the same amount of time or less than Kubiak. I don't think it's completely wrong for a fan of the NFL and an NFL team for however long we have been fans for to be a tad perturbed that our perennial .500 or so coach has been retained for that long.

If the Texans are still barely coming in at mediocre again then I can't see how you don't get rid of the Kubiak regime, but I really would rather not see see Phillips take his place (which is going to happen if Kubiak is fired). So I guess I'm rooting for Kubiak to get everybody ready and in place for each game. I don't think you'd have to scrap the whole offense I mean you've got almost every piece in place to probably have a WCO guy be able to brutalize the whole thing for a few years but ugh. HC Wade Phillips does not thrill me that much, and the more Cowher and Gruden stay in the analyst booths the less I want either of them as a HC.

Maybe, I don't know. But they were good enough to get 8 wins a season ago. We always underestimate the Jags.. The Titans too for that matter.

Every year we say that we are better than the Jags & that has rarely shown up in the W-L column. Maybe this year will be different, all I'm saying is 10 wins may not win the division.

If the FA moves the Jags made to shore up their defense show up big then they could possibly be a good defensive squad, but remember they weren't that much better at pass defense than we were last year, so they themselves would also be needing a big turnaround. Tucker, as a DC doesn't really thrill me with his version of the 4-3 and Dirk Koetter is a crappy OC I think. If you remember the Jags gave up some extra picks to get Blaine Gabbert who probably is not going to do much this year for them, the next is a guard, and then they went with defensive picks later on.

For what it's worth I think the Titans have a much better chance at being a surprise team but they are also in turmoil with basically half their offense wanting a ton of money and the best part of their passing game possibly being made an example of. They get to play a 4th place schedule though so they face such hard teams like the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos.

markn
08-26-2011, 02:18 PM
They have always been one of the more pessimistic outfits towards the Texans, fwiw.

-pessimistic
+accurate

GP
08-26-2011, 02:34 PM
What does Jville do so well to get them 11 wins? They used to be a really good defensive team when Mike Smith was their DC but that hasn't been them for a season or two now. I honestly think the Browns are going to be a better team.

Agreed. The Browns look like a turnaround team...big time.

Getting rid of Mangini was the key to that happening, too. I've watched them some in preseason this year, they look better. More focused. The offense looks like it has rhythm and knows what to do. Complete turnaround.

The Jags are going to struggle. As Garrard goes, so go the Jags. And he seems to decline a little bit each year. Throw in the rookie QB that's seen positive action in the preseason, and it has the makings of a shaky year.

GP
08-26-2011, 02:36 PM
What's happened in Jacksonville? I bet they win 10 games in 2011.

Tits (W)
Jets (L)
Panthers (W)
Saints (L)
Bengals (W)
Steelers (W)
Ravens (L)
Texans (L)
Colts (W)
Browns (W)
Texans (W)
Bucs (W)
Falcons (L)
Tits (W)
Colts (W)

Yikes, TK. Are you serious?

They're going to beat the Steelers? And the Browns? And the Colts BOTH times? And the Titans BOTH times? I dunno' about that, man.

Even the Bucs game smells fishy (get it? Tampa Bay...water...fish...smells fishy..bwah-ha-hah!).

DocBar
08-26-2011, 03:36 PM
Ith the Tits having a rookie hc, big?'s at qb and CJ being all butt hurt over his contract, I'm less concerned with them than the Jags and Colts. The Colts go as PM goes. No Pm, they aren't winning many games. The Jags added some good defensive talent and drafted a young gunslinger to push Gerrard. Gerrard can get on some good hot streaks. Not sure how well MJD is doing with his knee. No running game will put more pressure on Gerrard, but can he handle it?
TK, 11 wins for the Jags? Wow. When did you start drinking the teal koolaid?

Perki-Perk
08-26-2011, 03:45 PM
If it turns out that Phillips is in fact a special coordinator who can improve teams more than they would usually improve, then our projection is probably a tad low.

This from the Q&A. I think them not taking WP into account would definitely make our projection lower. Only taking into account the additions of JoJo and Dan the Man as well as not realizing the impact rookies JJ Watt(s) and Books Reed(s) will have on the team only increases my hope more.

If Meco comes back better than expected and Cush can return to 80% of "Over Training" form, we could be looking at one hell of a year. Emphasis on COULD BE. It would be nice to have a cinderella season this year, and I don't think it's too far fetched. I think MW will contain the run quite well on his side, and hopefully once WP implements his magical schemes, he will get at the QB like a rabid pack of Wild dogs at a small injured deer in the forrest.

With Watt on the line and the improvement in the disquise of our blitz packages that we should see from Mr. Phillips, teams will have to account for pressure coming from anywhere. So go on and double team Mario Williams and disregard the fact that the rest of the front 7 will be attacking you relentlessly like an extremist running in to the middle of a crowded mall in Islamabad yelling "jihad", and see if that don't bite you in the rear, or put your QB on his backside.:koolaid:

thunderkyss
08-26-2011, 06:05 PM
I think having a guy fumble around on the job for 5 years (don't know how his 6th is yet) is grating to a lot of people who watched guys like Mike Smith and Sean Peyton turn their teams into perennial contenders in the same amount of time or less than Kubiak. I don't think it's completely wrong for a fan of the NFL and an NFL team for however long we have been fans for to be a tad perturbed that our perennial .500 or so coach has been retained for that long.

If the Texans are still barely coming in at mediocre again then I can't see how you don't get rid of the Kubiak regime, but I really would rather not see see Phillips take his place (which is going to happen if Kubiak is fired). So I guess I'm rooting for Kubiak to get everybody ready and in place for each game. I don't think you'd have to scrap the whole offense I mean you've got almost every piece in place to probably have a WCO guy be able to brutalize the whole thing for a few years but ugh. HC Wade Phillips does not thrill me that much, and the more Cowher and Gruden stay in the analyst booths the less I want either of them as a HC.



Let me be perfectly clear. I would have been pleased if Gary Kubiak were run out of town back in January.

I think Gary Kubiak should have been fired to put it more bluntly.

But, nobody really knows how long it takes to build a winning franchise from scratch. The closest comparison we have are the Cleveland Browns, who have yet to build anything of much more substance than what we have in Houston.

I understand what has happened in New Orleans since Kubiak has been here. I also understand what has happened in Arizona, & NYJets. At the same time, those franchises are totally different than the situation Kubiak rolled into.

While there has been some success, some zeros turned into heros... there has also been alot of failures (Kubiak included). The 49ers for one are no closer, IMO, than we are. Neither are the Lions, Bengals, Rams, Broncos, Raiders or Browns.

Yup, I agree 10 years is way too long. Gary Kubiak should have been fired in January, I agree.

But Keeping Gary & bringing in Wade has just as much chance of success as bringing in Cowher (sp) or Fox or Fisher, or any other coach you could think of.

I hear what you're saying, that you don't have to blow up the whole offense... but I've never seen that done. Anther coach comes in, he's going to want his QB, his philosophy, more than likely if you're bringing in a Cowher, you're going to give him who he wants running the offense as well.

Lucky
08-26-2011, 06:43 PM
I think MW will contain the run quite well on his side, and hopefully once WP implements his magical schemes, he will get at the QB like a rabid pack of Wild dogs at a small injured deer in the forrest.
That was an extremely violent analogy. Yet, enjoyable.

I just don't see why you would want to blow everything up when you finally get the experienced staff you want together.
All I want is to see this team win. By any means necessary. I don't care what the staff looks like. I don't agree with the doomsday scenario of breaking up Kubiak's special version of the WCO. But even if I did, what has this offense done that was so special that it has made Kubiak untouchable?

The Texans finished 9th in scoring, behind such offensive juggernauts as the Raiders, Giants, and Cowboys. And 9th in points is the highest the Texans have ever finished. The Texans offense is good. With a HOF player, and some very good players mixed in. But not so special that it should be preserved in glass and sent to Canton.

FO predicts the Texans to win the division. To me, that's a big duh. The Titans are in shambles. The Jags are rebuilding. And the Colts are in flux. The Texans are head and shoulders above these teams in talent. Most of the Texans key players are in the prime of their career. For the first time in six years, the defense is guided by a coach with credentials. The only question mark? Gary Kubiak as head coach.

Really, the Texans should be able to win the AFC South in spite of Kubiak's flaws. A blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. Watching this team and how it responds to Kubiak over the past 3 years has convinced me that he's incapable of motivating and cajoling a team to victory. He's not Bill Belichick or Bill Cowher. He's not Rob Ryan or even Harbaugh. Hell, he's not even Jack Del Rio. Can this change? The 2011 season is a referendum on one man.

houstonspartan
08-26-2011, 06:55 PM
That was an extremely violent analogy. Yet, enjoyable.


All I want is to see this team win. By any means necessary. I don't care what the staff looks like. I don't agree with the doomsday scenario of breaking up Kubiak's special version of the WCO. But even if I did, what has this offense done that was so special that it has made Kubiak untouchable?

The Texans finished 9th in scoring, behind such offensive juggernauts as the Raiders, Giants, and Cowboys. And 9th in points is the highest the Texans have ever finished. The Texans offense is good. With a HOF player, and some very good players mixed in. But not so special that it should be preserved in glass and sent to Canton.

FO predicts the Texans to win the division. To me, that's a big duh. The Titans are in shambles. The Jags are rebuilding. And the Colts are in flux. The Texans are head and shoulders above these teams in talent. Most of the Texans key players are in the prime of their career. For the first time in six years, the defense is guided by a coach with credentials. The only question mark? Gary Kubiak as head coach.

Really, the Texans should be able to win the AFC South in spite of Kubiak's flaws. A blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. Watching this team and how it responds to Kubiak over the past 3 years has convinced me that he's incapable of motivating and cajoling a team to victory. He's not Bill Belichick or Bill Cowher. He's not Rob Ryan or even Harbaugh. Hell, he's not even Jack Del Rio. Can this change? The 2011 season is a referendum on one man.

Lucky, amen, bro. One of the reasons I'm struggling to come up with a prediction for this year is because, despite a good draft and and aggressive spree in FA, we still have the same head coach.

bo orlando
08-26-2011, 07:07 PM
This from the Q&A. I think them not taking WP into account would definitely make our projection lower. Only taking into account the additions of JoJo and Dan the Man as well as not realizing the impact rookies JJ Watt(s) and Books Reed(s) will have on the team only increases my hope more.

If Meco comes back better than expected and Cush can return to 80% of "Over Training" form, we could be looking at one hell of a year. Emphasis on COULD BE. It would be nice to have a cinderella season this year, and I don't think it's too far fetched. I think MW will contain the run quite well on his side, and hopefully once WP implements his magical schemes, he will get at the QB like a rabid pack of Wild dogs at a small injured deer in the forrest.

With Watt on the line and the improvement in the disquise of our blitz packages that we should see from Mr. Phillips, teams will have to account for pressure coming from anywhere. So go on and double team Mario Williams and disregard the fact that the rest of the front 7 will be attacking you relentlessly like an extremist running in to the middle of a crowded mall in Islamabad yelling "jihad", and see if that don't bite you in the rear, or put your QB on his backside.:koolaid:


that's a lot of "ifs." keep in mind that every team has highly drafted rookies and second year guys (counting barwin as second year) meant to plug the holes of the previous season. also remember that camp is made for stories like, "holy crap! so and so is a beast! man, we got a steal!" just think back on travis johnson and jacoby jones to name a few.

you can only really make projections off proven certainties-- strength of schedule, age of key players, injury luck, previous performance of key players and units relative to similar historical players and units at the same position, etc. If those indicators come up in your favor AND you get big performances out of guys like watt, reed, and mystery overachiever X, then you can start talking championship. the counter to that is it's just as possible for the guys you count on to offer weak performances (Andre Johnson loses a step after all his nagging injuries, DeMeco & Cushing fail to make it back from injury, Jonathan Joseph shows that Leon Hall was really the guy in Cincinnatti, etc.)

DocBar
08-26-2011, 07:45 PM
That was an extremely violent analogy. Yet, enjoyable.


All I want is to see this team win. By any means necessary. I don't care what the staff looks like. I don't agree with the doomsday scenario of breaking up Kubiak's special version of the WCO. But even if I did, what has this offense done that was so special that it has made Kubiak untouchable? The Texans finished 9th in scoring, behind such offensive juggernauts as the Raiders, Giants, and Cowboys. And 9th in points is the highest the Texans have ever finished. The Texans offense is good. With a HOF player, and some very good players mixed in. But not so special that it should be preserved in glass and sent to Canton.

FO predicts the Texans to win the division. To me, that's a big duh. The Titans are in shambles. The Jags are rebuilding. And the Colts are in flux. The Texans are head and shoulders above these teams in talent. Most of the Texans key players are in the prime of their career. For the first time in six years, the defense is guided by a coach with credentials. The only question mark? Gary Kubiak as head coach.

Really, the Texans should be able to win the AFC South in spite of Kubiak's flaws. A blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. Watching this team and how it responds to Kubiak over the past 3 years has convinced me that he's incapable of motivating and cajoling a team to victory. He's not Bill Belichick or Bill Cowher. He's not Rob Ryan or even Harbaugh. Hell, he's not even Jack Del Rio. Can this change? The 2011 season is a referendum on one man. If you believe this, then why do you complain so much when someone brings an obvious point light? Kubiak brings stability and a very good offense to the table. Why ruin that stability when keeping him will insure that at least one side of the ball performs at a high level? Stats go up and down every year, but we've had pretty consistent O stats for 3 yrs or so. The D has been lacking. WP as DC should put us over the top. Agreed?
The single most important piece of WP's D is the WOLB. That's where you get the passrush from. That's what that person is on planet Earth to do.
You ridicule posters on here who think MW is not the best WOLB in the world, based on rational thought, observation and WP's own words.
Why is that? MW has been nothing more than a passrush specialist his entire career. That is what he was supposedly asked to do. He was even reportedly asked to do it from a two point stance in prior years, and according to the likes of you, did quite well. So what is the difference now? Why can't he pin his ears back and punish oppossing QB's? What is the big deal about a "linebacker's stance" and footwork? Could that be the false step he took on every single snap he took standing up, according to WP?
I find it very disingenuous that people are making MW out to be untouchable because he is nationally known and a "big name".
There have been several logical, well thought out posts made for trading MW. They deserve nore than riducule and smart ass comments.
In 5 years, MW has proven himself to be an above average DE in a 4-3 defense. He has not proven himself to be a consistent game changer or disruptive force. He is, without a doubt, the best the Texans have ever fielded at that position, but that's akin to saying you won 5 gold medals at the Special Olympics. MW could be great, with help. He is NOT great by himself. That seperates him from the Reggie Whites and Bruce Smith's of the world. MW doesn't pick his team up and haul then to victory the way the greats did.
As has been stated earlier, if all he's being asked to do is rush the passer, then why the learning curve? He should have more freedom than ever before. If not, then we're being sold a false bill of goods and MW isn't the WOLB.

Lucky
08-26-2011, 08:08 PM
There are how many Mario Williams threads in this forum? Put your thoughts on Mario in one of those.

Kubiak brings stability and a very good offense to the table. Why ruin that stability when keeping him will insure that at least one side of the ball performs at a high level?
All of the good offense and stabilty has led to zero playoff appearances. Football is more than mathematical formulas. There are intangibles and nuances that can't be found in numbers. Well, not yardage stats. They can be seen in the win-loss column, which really is the only stat that counts. All I want to see is the ruination of the Texans mediocrity.

If Wade Phillips influence turns this franchise into a winner, I will be a very happy camper. But my gut tells me there are problems that can't be seen in stats, problems that Wade can't fix. I think it was a mistake to bring Kubiak back. Bob McNair disagreed. We'll see who was right.

DocBar
08-26-2011, 08:19 PM
There are how many Mario Williams threads in this forum? Put your thoughts on Mario in one of those.


All of the good offense and stabilty has led to zero playoff appearances. Football is more than mathematical formulas. There are intangibles and nuances that can't be found in numbers. Well, not yardage stats. They can be seen in the win-loss column, which really is the only stat that counts. All I want to see is the ruination of the Texans mediocrity.

If Wade Phillips influence turns this franchise into a winner, I will be a very happy camper. But my gut tells me there are problems that can't be seen in stats, problems that Wade can't fix. I think it was a mistake to bring Kubiak back. Bob McNair disagreed. We'll see who was right.I'll be expecting dinner at Ruth's Chris when I'm proven right.

thunderkyss
08-26-2011, 10:37 PM
If Wade Phillips influence turns this franchise into a winner, I will be a very happy camper. But my gut tells me there are problems that can't be seen in stats, problems that Wade can't fix. I think it was a mistake to bring Kubiak back. Bob McNair disagreed. We'll see who was right.

I believe the same thing.

I think the biggest problem to date has been that Kubiak has done a poor job of getting these guys to believe they deserve to win. I say that because of the way we have lost.

We're talented enough to be winners, have been (I think) for the last 2 seasons. But we've got our defensive leader, the capt'n telling everybody, "This is just another game, nothing special." When he should be saying, " They're all the most important game, until we get to the Super Bowl, they're all important."

Loosing is not an option.


The Third Man
08-27-2011, 01:51 AM
Bringing in a new head coach with the labor issue eating up the off season would not be a good move, IMO. The love child of Vince Lombardi and Winston Churchill couldn't have made that shitty defense into a playoff team last year.

GuerillaBlack
08-27-2011, 03:16 AM
Bringing in a new head coach with the labor issue eating up the off season would not be a good move, IMO. The love child of Vince Lombardi and Winston Churchill couldn't have made that shitty defense into a playoff team last year.

What about the year before when we had an average defense? Even the Bucs had more wins last year than Kubiak has ever had with the Texans. And it was Morris' second year at coaching. It's really unacceptable for Kubiak to have not reached the playoffs at least once, and the team shouldn't rely on another team to help them in.

nero THE zero
08-27-2011, 08:00 AM
The Texans finished 9th in scoring, behind such offensive juggernauts as the Raiders, Giants, and Cowboys. And 9th in points is the highest the Texans have ever finished. The Texans offense is good. With a HOF player, and some very good players mixed in. But not so special that it should be preserved in glass and sent to Canton.

While I agree that there are some concerns about a generally overrated offense (i.e. inability to start fast, second WR, etc.) using points scored is a bit misleading. Oakland, for instance, had 3 special teams TD and 3 defensive TD. The Texans had 0 special teams TD and 0 defensive TD. That's a 42 point difference. Considering those factors alone, and ignoring the other benefits you get from ST and defense, such as TOP and field position, that would put the Texans 22 points up on the Raiders.

The Texans were pretty bad on special teams and historically bad on defense. That's plays a huge part in points scored. I'm with you on wanting Kubiak replaced, but I don't think going after the offense is the way to go about it. The offense was really good.