PDA

View Full Version : Lowering expectations for Demeco Ryans in 2011


Tailgate
07-29-2011, 03:06 PM
I know, now is not the time for being negative... but a particular quote in this blog entry today has me pretty worried about how much of an impact Demeco has had in the past for us vs what happened post injury, and what to expect in the coming seasons from him as he recovers. Average of 50% worse production over 3 years post injury?? :yikes:

I know there has been some discussions on this in the past. But I think its time for me personally hedge my bets and lower my expectations of the guy immediately moving forward.


The AFC South holds two of the top six spots in Danny Tuccitto’s 10 biggest NFL injuries to watch.

Houston linebacker DeMeco Ryans is sixth and Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew is fourth.

Here’s what Tuccitto says, paired with my thoughts.

Ryans:

Injury: Torn left Achilles tendon

Tuccitto: “Defenses typically switch to the 3-4 based on the talent and depth of their linebacker corps. With three current or former Pro Bowlers among their four starters and second-round pick Brooks Reed likely providing pass rush off the bench, the 2011 Texans fit the bill. Ryans' recovery from a torn left Achilles tendon appears to be the only real question mark among the group. As the presumptive starter at weakside inside linebacker, his main responsibility will be as a tackling machine in run defense, a task that suits him perfectly.

“Before his injury, Ryans was one of only two linebackers to have more than 400 total tackles from 2006 to 2009, and he helped the 2009 run defense to its second-best ranking in franchise history (16th). Last season, the Texans dropped eight spots to 24th.

“Although he's still young and is now nine months removed from surgery, it's no guarantee that Ryans will return to his preinjury form this season: A 2009 study of NFL Achilles tendon injuries found that a returning player's three-year production after surgery is an average of 50 percent worse than his three-year performance before surgery. If that happens with Ryans, Houston might again find itself as the NFL's breakout team that doesn't break out.

Kuharsky: How well and how completely Ryans returns from this injury is a huge storyline for the Texans. He’s a great player and a great leader and if he isn’t the same guy he was before the injury, the defense will suffer for it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/25686/injuries-to-watch-ryans-jones-drew

Crushing56
07-29-2011, 03:15 PM
Wow that scares me...

Rey
07-29-2011, 03:16 PM
Been saying this since last year right after he got injured.

I was actually worried about him before his injury because it looked like he put on a bit too much weight.

We definitely need some depth there. Veteran depth would be preferable.

DX-TEX
07-29-2011, 03:18 PM
Channing Crowder just got cut by the Dolphins.

Decent pick if good price?

DocBar
07-29-2011, 03:19 PM
This is why I was hoping we could land Posluszney. CND has a good thread or post on this somewhere.

beerlover
07-29-2011, 03:27 PM
DeMeco just got paid then look what happened. Now his career is over?

Give me a break :polevault:

Brandon420tx
07-29-2011, 03:27 PM
Cushing struggles when he has to lead the defense, maybe they can tell Dmeco not to force him self too hard and mostly focus on calling the right defensive assignments, playing zone, and making the easier tackles up the middle. He'll just have to learn to put Cushing in the right places to make plays for him while he heals up this year

dinkatoid
07-29-2011, 03:31 PM
While I am definitely worried about Ryans, I think it is important not to go overboard one way or the other. I am not going to jump up and say he will be 100%, but I wont say he is going to be half the player he was either. That average is a league wide average, which can be affected by things such as age, position, etc.

I am sure quite a few older players suffered massive declines in production. Ryans is still young, so I would say that has to help his odds some. Position players are also hit the hardest from these types of injuries. These guys rely on their speed and athleticism quite a bit, so losing it hurts their production greatly. On the flip side, someone like an OL usually suffers less. Fortunately for us, Ryans is somewhere in the middle. He wont have to run all over the place to make plays, I have seen quite a few not very mobile ILBs be good players.

Point is, there is not much use worrying over something like this at this point. I am sure he will start slow from being rusty, but we should get a good feel for how he is doing after a few games. I also think that if need be, Sharpton could be a solid player there for us, even with his smaller size.

Wolf
07-29-2011, 03:35 PM
not sure if this was the same study but this was a thread a while back and Doc (CnD) weighed in on it
post 27
http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76853&highlight=Achilles+tendon&page=2

The “Debbie Downer” stat-filled scenario that have been floating around the internet are generated by and in reference to a 2009 article in Foot and Ankle Specialist Online Journal (created in 2008)



The more optimistic numbers that I had previously presented in the other thread was based on more recent expectations of football players at collegiate and professional levels............return to play ~90% and return to preinjury performance ~80%. Of course, with these numbers, there are individual factors determining success or failure.

Having looked up and read the entire paper (which was submitted to a small online journal, not a nationally or internationally recognized orthopedic journal), there are too many limitations and flaws to the study to make it valid. Interesting, especially since it is the only “study” that targets the NFL population for this injury?.......Yes......Valid?....No. Definitely SCAREY!

But let it be understood that the study included a total of only 31 players. Whatever information was available was from ONLINE information (such as KFFL.COM which they reference), the only information given the authors for their analysis and conclusions. There were no personal medical records made available for prior injury history to other joints, such as hips, knee and contralateral ankle or any other injuries which would have precluded return or decision to return or ability to optimally rehab. Records were not available to assess in any way important parameters, such as prodomal (pre-existing chronic problems with calf or tendonitis) conditions that could have been treated before extensive destruction finally followed by rupture of the tendon vs. clean one incident rupture. A chronic rupture scenario is full of post treatment problems. There were no records to assess surgical vs. non surgical treatment. Non surgical treatment of these ruptures are almost a revolving door invitation to increased incidence of chronic problems and re-rupture. The surgical techniques and rehabilitation armentarium available is vastly superior today than they were in 2002, let alone in 1997, from which time frame the cases were drawn. Finally, their method of assigning power rating and assignment of controls are at very least questionable.

This paper indeed is the only such review specific to the NFL, yet it is not surprising that it would not have been accepted by a more well-known reputable journal.

Demeco will not have an easy climb back. But it is far from gloom and doom.

hopefully saved CnD from some more typing :D

Hardcore Texan
07-29-2011, 03:39 PM
Been saying this since last year right after he got injured.

I was actually worried about him before his injury because it looked like he put on a bit too much weight.

We definitely need some depth there. Veteran depth would be preferable.

Channing Crowder just got cut by the Dolphins.

Decent pick if good price?

Yep. CND has been telling this for awhile now.

*edit - Wolf beat me to it.

Errant Hothy
07-29-2011, 03:49 PM
Channing Crowder just got cut by the Dolphins.

Decent pick if good price?

Source, please?

No news on this from the usual sources; ie Schefty, Mort or Clayton.

DX-TEX
07-29-2011, 03:51 PM
Source, please?

No news on this from the usual sources; ie Schefty, Mort or Clayton.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/07/29/report-dolphins-cut-ilb-crowder

Errant Hothy
07-29-2011, 03:53 PM
http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/07/29/report-dolphins-cut-ilb-crowder

Thanks. Curious why this isn't bigger news nationally?

Nawzer
07-29-2011, 03:55 PM
I mentioned this is another thread about DeMeco. I'm not sure how good he's going to be this season. The type of injury he suffered takes a long time to fully heal. If the Texans are wise they must have more than an adequate replacement for Ryans. I don't know whether or not if that guy is already on the roster, but I hope the Texans have plans in case Ryans is struggling. Not suggesting that he's going to suck or that his career is over, but he had a major injury and the Texans have to be prepared.

DocBar
07-29-2011, 04:19 PM
I mentioned this is another thread about DeMeco. I'm not sure how good he's going to be this season. The type of injury he suffered takes a long time to fully heal. If the Texans are wise they must have more than an adequate replacement for Ryans. I don't know whether or not if that guy is already on the roster, but I hope the Texans have plans in case Ryans is struggling. Not suggesting that he's going to suck or that his career is over, but he had a major injury and the Texans have to be prepared.It wouldn't hurt my feelings if they let Keglar and Sharpton get a shot and let Ryans heal up some more. Maybe it would be wise to PUP him and brink him back a full year after the injury.

CloakNNNdagger
07-29-2011, 04:33 PM
not sure if this was the same study but this was a thread a while back and Doc (CnD) weighed in on it
post 27
http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=76853&highlight=Achilles+tendon&page=2



hopefully saved CnD from some more typing :D

Thanks, Wolf for saving me alot of search time.

The more "ominous" comparison conclusions of the 2009 article that was initially referred to in my post is probably worth posting for perspective.

The purpose of this study is to document the epidemiology of Achilles tendon ruptures in the National Football League (NFL) and to quantify the impact of these injuries on player performance. A retrospective review of several online NFL player registries identified 31 Achilles tendon ruptures in NFL players between 1997 and 2002. Nineteen percent of injuries occurred during preseason play, while another 18% occurred during the first month of the official season. There was a postinjury reduction of 88%, 83%, and 78% in power ratings for wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends, respectively, over a 3-year period. There was a 95%, 87%, and 64% postinjury reduction in power ratings for linebackers, cornerbacks, and defensive tackles over a 3-year period. On average, players experienced a greater than 50% reduction in their power ratings following such an injury. Thirty-two percent (n = 10) of NFL players who sustained an Achilles tendon rupture did not return to play in the NFL.

I remain hopeful, yet very guarded about Demeco's return level of performance, as his position of LB will be expected to rely on Achilles strength and function greater and more often than most positions.

DocBar
07-29-2011, 04:38 PM
CND, what's your opinion on him starting the season? Would you let him have it and monitor him or would you be more cautious and give him plenty of time for strenchening and stretching and severely limit his playing time?

The Pencil Neck
07-29-2011, 04:41 PM
This is why I've been saying we need to go after Nick Barnett or one of the two ILBs from the Chargers. CnD said that in a thread and then I looked at our LB depth and... dude. We need to patch that up.

CloakNNNdagger
07-29-2011, 05:04 PM
CND, what's your opinion on him starting the season? Would you let him have it and monitor him or would you be more cautious and give him plenty of time for strenchening and stretching and severely limit his playing time?

This is why I've been saying we need to go after Nick Barnett or one of the two ILBs from the Chargers. CnD said that in a thread and then I looked at our LB depth and... dude. We need to patch that up.

I worry any time I hear the words "AHEAD OF SCHEDULE!" Think back to those past outcomes........specifically, short term.

I've said before, I don't feel comfortable starting Demeco at ILB in a 3-4 right off the bat...........and without any additional solid roster ILB to supplement him as he gains strength in practice settings or to replace him if he falters. Not to anticipate the worse and hope for the best would be down right unrealistic, and maybe even "old Texans-like."

hradhak
07-29-2011, 09:24 PM
I worry any time I hear the words "AHEAD OF SCHEDULE!" Think back to those past outcomes........specifically, short term.

I've said before, I don't feel comfortable starting Demeco at ILB in a 3-4 right off the bat...........and without any additional solid roster ILB to supplement him as he gains strength in practice settings or to replace him if he falters. Not to anticipate the worse and hope for the best would be down right unrealistic, and maybe even "old Texans-like."

The study is definitely limited. A third of the players didn't return to play and they didn't have a real reason why. I imagine that some percentage that never returned did not return because they were either not good enough to make it to begin with or they were older and were planning on retiring anyway. It's a limited study. We don't know the extent of anyone's injuries in the study, including Demeco's.

I too think it's way too early to make any sort of judgement, but my guess is that Demeco was never a player that was overtly physically gifted. He was a smart player who made his living by being observant on and off the field. I think that even at 70-80% he's still going to be a good player since his instincts are still solid.

gtexan02
07-29-2011, 09:35 PM
I may be mistaken, but I remember MLBs in the 3-4 requiring less range than traditional MLBs in a 4-3. They need to read plays, react, and make sure tackles. If DeMeco loses a step in speed he should still be able to play his role well

CloakNNNdagger
07-29-2011, 09:54 PM
I may be mistaken, but I remember MLBs in the 3-4 requiring less range than traditional MLBs in a 4-3. They need to read plays, react, and make sure tackles. If DeMeco loses a step in speed he should still be able to play his role well

Recovery from an Achilles tendon repair offers a unique set of problems to a football player, accounting why recovery from such an injury is so less reliable than most other classic injuries. With an post Achilles injury, it is planting the foot for traction and "holding" or gaining forward motion against powerful resistance where an LB will suffer his greatest challenge. Pushing off, and stopping and tackling opposing offensive players become a great problem without full strength of the gastroc(nemius) muscle, especially if the tendon has shortened or elongated since the repair.

Wolf6151
07-29-2011, 10:14 PM
With Demeco coming off an Achilles injury, Cushing coming off the juice, and Earl Mitchell playing 3-4 NT at 291 lbs. I'm worried about our ability to stop the run up the middle.

beerlover
07-29-2011, 10:29 PM
Cloak knows best, but a reasonable timetable should be established by his doctors, maybe its 12-18 months? I don't know but what I do know is this, having DeMeco on the field even less than 100% is better than not having him at all.

DocBar
07-29-2011, 10:33 PM
Recovery from an Achilles tendon repair offers a unique set of problems to a football player, accounting why recovery from such an injury is so less reliable than most other classic injuries. With an post Achilles injury, it is planting the foot for traction and "holding" or gaining forward motion against powerful resistance where an LB will suffer his greatest challenge. Pushing off, and stopping and tackling opposing offensive players become a great problem without full strength of the gastroc(nemius) muscle, especially if the tendon has shortened or elongated since the repair.Given enough time, say a full year, after surgery and a successful rehab, what are the chances of having a chronic problem with the achilles?
I'm wondering if we should PUP him and not take any chances. Is the risk of reinjury after 9 or 10 months of rehab worth the reward of playing him and risk a career ending injury?

badboy
07-29-2011, 11:24 PM
If Phillips had any care at all about Demeco why didn't we draft ILB or sign a vet FA?

CloakNNNdagger
07-30-2011, 12:19 AM
Cloak knows best, but a reasonable timetable should be established by his doctors, maybe its 12-18 months? I don't know but what I do know is this, having DeMeco on the field even less than 100% is better than not having him at all.

Given enough time, say a full year, after surgery and a successful rehab, what are the chances of having a chronic problem with the achilles?
I'm wondering if we should PUP him and not take any chances. Is the risk of reinjury after 9 or 10 months of rehab worth the reward of playing him and risk a career ending injury?

Everyone needs to keep in mind that when we are even speaking of comparisons to pre-injury level performances, we are speaking about the 2/3rds of the number of injured players that are able to return and perform at least somewhat adequately on the field. Remember, 1/3 of players attempting to come back from this injury find that they cannot return to adequate on-the-field play at all. For Joe Schmo, 4 months of rehab is usually enough to return to normal activity. For a player to return to typical non-professional sports activities, 6 months is sometimes adequate. For a professional football player the total strength rehab is usually closer to 11 months, but this will probably not be to the peak of performance which may not be until the next season.

Re-rupture rates are around 5-6%, and are more likely to occur if too much stress is placed on the repair too soon. Even if re-rupture does not occur under these circumstances, there is an increased chance of elongating the Achilles tendon permanently, thus also permanently compromising the ultimate return level of performance attainable.

The Texans certainly should anticipate a reasonable "backup" plan.

Hope that helps a little.

DocBar
07-30-2011, 12:23 AM
Everyone needs to keep in mind that when we are even speaking of comparisons to pre-injury level performances, we are speaking about the 2/3rds of the number of injured players that are able to return and perform at least somewhat adequately on the field. Remember, 1/3 of players attempting to come back from this injury find that they cannot return to adequate on-the-field play at all. For Joe Schmo, 4 months of rehab is usually enough to return to normal activity. For a player to return to typical non-professional sports activities, 6 months is sometimes adequate. For a professional football player the total strength rehab is usually closer 11 months, but this will probably not be to the peak of performance which may not be until the next season.

Re-rupture rates are around 5-6%, and are more likely to occur if too much stress is placed on the repair too soon. Even if re-rupture does not occur under these circumstances, there is an increased chance of elongating the Achilles tendon permanently, thus also permanently compromising the ultimate return level of performance attainable.

Hope that helps a little.Thaqt tells me that the smart money would be to PUP Ryans, pretty much look for an alternative for this season and increase the odds that Ryans can come back as a possible starter next season.

CloakNNNdagger
07-30-2011, 12:10 PM
FYI, Demeco just celebrated his 27th birthday on the 28th of this month!

CloakNNNdagger
08-02-2011, 11:55 AM
A more in depth analysis, from STEPH'S BLOG in the Chronicle: A medical view of DeMeco Ryans’ recovery from injury (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/a-medical-view-of-demeco-ryans-recovery-from-injury/#more-809)

CloakNNNdagger
08-02-2011, 11:56 AM
A more in depth analysis, from STEPH'S BLOG in the Chronicle: A medical view of DeMeco Ryans’ recovery from injury (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/a-medical-view-of-demeco-ryans-recovery-from-injury/#more-809)

beerlover
08-02-2011, 11:58 AM
A more in depth analysis, from STEPH'S BLOG in the Chronicle: A medical view of DeMeco Ryans’ recovery from injury (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/a-medical-view-of-demeco-ryans-recovery-from-injury/#more-809)

your typical light reading doc :specnatz:

DocBar
08-02-2011, 12:12 PM
A more in depth analysis, from STEPH'S BLOG in the Chronicle: A medical view of DeMeco Ryans’ recovery from injury (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/08/a-medical-view-of-demeco-ryans-recovery-from-injury/#more-809)That reinforces my belief that Ryan should be PUP'd and give him a full year for recovery and rehab. The downside of that is less than the potential downside of running him out 9 months post-surgery and just seeing what happens.
If, as the articles suggests, rehab has improved significantly (less time immobilized, lessening the amount of scar tissue build up,etc) then giving the extra three months to rehab the tendon and allow it to regain it's tensile strength just seems to make sense.
:fans:

Ole Miss Texan
08-02-2011, 12:26 PM
Who's getting ILB reps at camp? If Demeco and Cushing aren't practicing (full time) with the 1st team, who's in? I've got my suspicions but would appreciate a factual answer from someone seeing or reading about camp than just thinking its someone. :)

Rey
08-02-2011, 12:55 PM
Demeco has been running with the first team.

Not sure who's been taking cushing's reps but I would think sharpton or adibi.

People keep talking about a back up plan, buy it seems as if the team is ok with those two and the udfa's behind them.

Maybe if they don't do well in ore season they will search for an alternative.

DocBar
08-02-2011, 01:13 PM
Demeco has been running with the first team.

Not sure who's been taking cushing's reps but I would think sharpton or adibi.

People keep talking about a back up plan, buy it seems as if the team is ok with those two and the udfa's behind them.

Maybe if they don't do well in ore season they will search for an alternative.Don't forget Keglar.

DocBar
08-03-2011, 01:02 AM
Looks like we'll have some more data to work with on these achilles injuries. (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/03/titans-lose-cornerback-to-achilles-injury/)

CloakNNNdagger
08-03-2011, 07:29 AM
Looks like we'll have some more data to work with on these achilles injuries. (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/08/03/titans-lose-cornerback-to-achilles-injury/)

This is the 2nd Titans player (the other in Sunday practice) that has suffered this injury already. I expect that there will be an inordinate number of specifically this injury (as well as others) due to the lockout and the shortening of conditioning period that many players will have experienced. The gastrocnemius muscle needs concentrated attention in order to stretch normally, even moreso than the hamstring. If this is not given adequate prep time to occur (which it definitely needs), during jumping and push-off maneuvers, the shortened muscle that will not stretch properly will place all of the stress on the Achilles tendon.......and rip it right off the bone.

CloakNNNdagger
08-03-2011, 07:33 AM
Punter Reggie Hodges will also miss the entire 2011 season after rupturing his Achilles tendon on Tuesday. They will keep coming.

silvrhand
08-03-2011, 08:06 AM
There is nothing we can do but to wait and see, of all people we needed to lost Demeco is not the one we needed to lose.

/nervous