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View Full Version : Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?


EllisUnit
06-14-2011, 09:26 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/24589/can-arian-foster-match-his-2010-season




Arian Foster was obviously a revelation last season.

The Texans had more of a belief in him heading into 2010 than I did. I thought pinning the hopes of their running game on him after two strong games at the end of 2009 was a more than a tad hopeful. And let’s face it: The Texans hardly stood pat, drafting Ben Tate in the second round.

But Tate got hurt and Foster exploded for 231 rushing yards in the season-opening win over the Colts, a number no one came close to matching all season. On a 6-10 team, Foster was consistently productive and wound up the league’s rushing leader.

Now the question is, does he suffer some sort of second-year (third-season) dip?

I believe he’s legit and have no concerns that he will endure any sort of major letdown.

Tight end Owen Daniels agrees.

“He won’t be a one-year wonder, we’re not going to let him do that,” Daniels said. “I think we’ve got a really good offensive line. Hopefully we have our fullback [Vonta Leach] coming back. There are a lot of people who work really hard for him up front.

“He made some good things happen at the end of his rookie year, and then we honestly, as silly as it might sound, all the players kind of expected him to have a great year just because we saw him work. We saw the potential from the year before. We knew if we could keep that guy healthy and give him some help ... Arian would be the man back there. We won’t let him have that second-year, quote unquote sophomore slump, even though it’s his third year. We won’t let that happen.”

Ernest Tolden of ESPN Stats & Information put together this chart for us looking at backs who led the league in rushing in their first or second season and how they did the next year.

Three -- George Rogers, Freeman McNeil and Edgerrin James were hurt in a follow-up season. But of the other seven, no one dropped more than six spots among the rushing leaders the following season.

That bodes well for Foster. So does the fact that the Texans should be a more competitive team with a revamped defense and an emphasis on finishing.

Lucky
06-14-2011, 10:07 PM
Fosters touches could be reduced if Tate emerges as a solid complement. Really, Ward is a solid complement to Foster, and could have received more carries had he gone through training camp with the Texans.

Still, I expect Arian to be among the leagues leaders in rushing, and yards per carry. He's just that good. And if the Texans could jump out to some early leads, I can see the Texans rushing attempts rise. Foster may not lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2011, but he could still have a Pro Bowl year.

TEXANRED
06-14-2011, 10:14 PM
Fosters touches could be reduced if Tate emerges as a solid complement. Really, Ward is a solid complement to Foster, and could have received more carries had he gone through training camp with the Texans.

Still, I expect Arian to be among the leagues leaders in rushing, and yards per carry. He's just that good. And if the Texans could jump out to some early leads, I can see the Texans rushing attempts rise. Foster may not lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2011, but he could still have a Pro Bowl year.

I agree if Tate fully recovers and produces like we expected him to.

I wouldn't cry if Foster rushes for a 1000 and Tate rushes for a 1000 and Ward cleans up with a couple of hundred of his own.

Fred
06-14-2011, 10:23 PM
No. 2010 was his career year and even if he never gets injuried and has a great year he won't lead the NFL in rushing with over 1600 yards and lead the NFL in yard from scrimmage with over 2200 yards and lead the NFL in touchdowns with more than 1 per game. Again, not saying he won't be good or even great, but statistically odds say "no way". Between the chances of an injury, splitting time with other backs, or only being 98% as good as one of the greatest seasons ever, the odds are against him.

Also Steve Slaton will not repeat his 2008 season (leading the NFL in yard from scrimmage) and Chris Johnson will never rush for 2000 in a season again.

However, I am still hoping Ben Tate's best years as a pro are still ahead of him.

EllisUnit
06-14-2011, 10:33 PM
No. 2010 was his career year and even if he never gets injuried and has a great year he won't lead the NFL in rushing with over 1600 yards and lead the NFL in yard from scrimmage with over 2200 yards and lead the NFL in touchdowns with more than 1 per game. Again, not saying he won't be good or even great, but statistically odds say "no way". Between the chances of an injury, splitting time with other backs, or only being 98% as good as one of the greatest seasons ever, the odds are against him.

Also Steve Slaton will not repeat his 2008 season (leading the NFL in yard from scrimmage) and Chris Johnson will never rush for 2000 in a season again.

However, I am still hoping Ben Tate's best years as a pro are still ahead of him.

hmmm u say all this pretty confidently but i dont see how u can say all of that for SURE. i mean to speculate is one thing but to say all of this without a doubt. IF we can get leads, Foster will rush for more yards. He did all that on a team that was down and had to consistently throw the ball to come back from big defecates. So if we get a Defense that can get us a good lead, i know Foster can rush form 1800+ yards.

Allstar
06-14-2011, 10:46 PM
Can he? Sure. Will he? Doubt it.

Arian had a very special season last year that we should not take for granted. Even if things were the same, I'm not sure if he could do it. With Tate returning and a whole season worth of game tape to study for other teams, it'll be awfully hard to match his prior total.

That being said, It'd be really nice to be able to have our offense on the field more frequently due to an improved defense, and also to play with the lead in the 4th more, forcing Arian to have more carries.

Texan_Bill
06-14-2011, 11:24 PM
Re: Can Arian Foster Match his 2010 Season ?


Ummmm, in word, YES!!! He understands the idea of making a decision and cutting... It Works!!!

Dutchrudder
06-14-2011, 11:44 PM
I see 3-headed monster in the future for the Texans, Tate, Ward and Foster - "The Tardster" if you prefer. So no, not with significantly less carries. Although, I believe less carries is a good thing to preserve Foster's ability for years to come, rather than wearing him out early and waiting for him to break down in 2-3 years.

ThaShark316
06-15-2011, 09:50 AM
I see 3-headed monster in the future for the Texans, Tate, Ward and Foster - "The Tardster" if you prefer. So no, not with significantly less carries. Although, I believe less carries is a good thing to preserve Foster's ability for years to come, rather than wearing him out early and waiting for him to break down in 2-3 years.

Yeah, we don't want him turning into Larry Johnson.

Señor Stan
06-15-2011, 10:27 AM
"The Tardster"


Please don't infringe on my copyrights.

Sincerely,

Chris Johnson
Tennessee Titans

Dutchrudder
06-15-2011, 10:33 AM
Please don't infringe on my copyrights.

Sincerely,

Chris Johnson
Tennessee Titans

You can't possibly be Chris Johnson, there's no way he could spell 'infringe' correctly.

I think the Tardster could catch on as a nickname.

czarleon
06-15-2011, 10:38 AM
You can't possibly be Chris Johnson, there's no way he could spell 'infringe' correctly.

I think the Tardster could catch on as a nickname.

or Sincerely

badboy
06-15-2011, 10:40 AM
I am hopeful Foster will not have to duplicate last season. I want to see more spread over the 3 main backs and maybe a few to SLaton if on the roster. I think a healthy Owen Daniels and a solid Dreesen will also get a few more plays. Both are good at holding onto the ball. The offense is rounding into a very good group. I expect Kubiak to have more time to focus on O with Phillips handling defense.

Texecutioner
06-15-2011, 10:40 AM
It's possible, but I highly doubt it. AP hasn't matched the type of run he was on in his rookie year before getting hurt. Chris Johnson didn't come close to what he did two years ago. He can still have a great season, but it's doubtful that he hits those numbers again especially if Leach isn't here.

gary
06-15-2011, 10:55 AM
If he happens to be anywhere near where he was in 2010 then I'll be happy.

NBT
06-15-2011, 12:39 PM
Most NFL teams today use a 3, or even 4, man rotation at RB to keep the star relatively healthy. If Ward and Tate can step up, it would be all to the good for us and for Arian.

The Pencil Neck
06-15-2011, 02:48 PM
I think he can hit 1600/600 again.

If Leach isn't here, the odds go down.

But Foster understands the system. He's not running out of his head or anything. He's not throwing himself around brutally and recklessly like AP used to do. Foster is a more controlled runner.

I can see Foster having a long, productive career and put up big numbers. I can see him having years statistically better than last year (whether he takes the rushing title or not.)

I can also see him getting injured and Tate and/or Ward coming in and taking up the slack and having great careers themselves.

This is why I was pushing for drafting RB early and often. RB is a brutal spot and you need to make sure you've got quality depth at that position.

Doppelganger
06-15-2011, 03:00 PM
Hopefully not. He got WAY too many touches last year. You can only give your RB so many hits in the course of his career.

Last year Foster had 327 total rushes and Ward had about 50. So we averaged about 23 running plays per game(minus reverses to AJ or JJ). I would like to get up to around 30 rushing plays per game. I would give 14 touches to Foster and 8 each to Ward and Tate.

Texecutioner
06-15-2011, 03:02 PM
I think he can hit 1600/600 again.

If Leach isn't here, the odds go down.

But Foster understands the system. He's not running out of his head or anything. He's not throwing himself around brutally and recklessly like AP used to do. Foster is a more controlled runner.

I can see Foster having a long, productive career and put up big numbers. I can see him having years statistically better than last year (whether he takes the rushing title or not.)

I can also see him getting injured and Tate and/or Ward coming in and taking up the slack and having great careers themselves.

This is why I was pushing for drafting RB early and often. RB is a brutal spot and you need to make sure you've got quality depth at that position.

You have to remember that Tate will be back this season taking a lot of his carries away. Hitting 1,600 and 600 again will be tough if Tate is running really well. It would be smart to share the load a lot more if Tate is running really nicely to limit the damage on Foster.

HuttoKarl
06-15-2011, 03:07 PM
Please don't infringe on my copyrights.

Sincerely,

Chris Johnson
Tennessee Titans

or "on"

Double Barrel
06-15-2011, 03:14 PM
I hope that we have such big leads going into fourth quarters that a) they sit Foster to rest him and b) our defense has no problem protecting these leads.

Hopefully Foster does not match his 2010 because he won't need to and we have other backs helping to carry the load. Foster needs to be injury free and rested going into our first playoff appearance in franchise history!

How's that for optimism? :fans:

pirbroke
06-15-2011, 03:45 PM
Arian Foster led all NFL running back with 45 broken tackles last season, according to Football Outsiders.
The total is especially impressive considering the Texans' strong offensive line often kept defenders away from Foster at the line of scrimmage. Chris Johnson (41) placed second behind Foster. Part-time backs Chris Ivory, Marshawn Lynch, and LeGarrette Blount topped the list in broken tackles per touch. Other 2011 starters finishing high in broken tackle rate: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Fred Jackson, and LeSean McCoy. Jun. 14 - 7:02 pm et

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=NFL&id=5469&line=205465&spln=1

Rey
06-15-2011, 05:38 PM
Counting the playoff yardage that Foster should get....Yes.

TexanSam
06-15-2011, 11:03 PM
It's hard to say what Tate's contribution will be this year. He's coming off an injury and hardly played at all last season. Obviously the Texans think highly of him by drafting him in the 2nd round, but I wonder how many touches we can realistically expect next season. Foster was great and Ward was a solid backup who will probably see his numbers go up as well due to his success.

I think Tate will have to be very impressive in training camp and the preseason (if the lockout ends in time) in order to earn some playing time.

The Pencil Neck
06-16-2011, 02:15 AM
You have to remember that Tate will be back this season taking a lot of his carries away. Hitting 1,600 and 600 again will be tough if Tate is running really well. It would be smart to share the load a lot more if Tate is running really nicely to limit the damage on Foster.

I don't disagree with any of that.

But I think there are more touches to go around. IF, and this is important, IF we get our defense together.

As great as Foster and Ward ran last year, we were 19th in rushing attempts. There were 2 teams (Chiefs and Jets) that had over 100 more rushing attempts than we did. Even though we had the #1 rusher, we still were only the 7th best rushing team.

We were 15th in total offensive plays. So it's not like we were passing a lot more than we were throwing and our passing game was sucking rushing attempts away from our running game.

The problem was that our defense couldn't stop anyone. IF our defense stops people (especially by making them punt but also by getting turnovers), we'll have more attempts to divvy up.

In that case, Arian Foster as the #1 back could still see big numbers and Tate/Ward could see some pretty good numbers, too.

BUt like everything with this team right now, it comes back around to the defense.

CloakNNNdagger
06-16-2011, 07:25 AM
I know that this is BLEACHER REPORT, but it does give a legitimate and realistic review of the state of affairs with the Texans RB situation.

Arian Foster: Why the Houston Texans RB Won't Repeat His 2010 Success (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/734564-arian-foster-why-the-houston-texan-wont-repeat-his-succes-of-2010)

Blake
06-16-2011, 07:42 AM
No way. The Texans rushing attack will drop off a bit this year. And with Tate coming in they will have more options to keep Arian Fresh. Keep that in mind when drafting him #1 overall in your fantasy league.

GuerillaBlack
06-16-2011, 07:47 AM
He can match (or get close) to his rushing TD totals from last season, but not yards. Probably around 1300 or so, IMO.

drs23
06-16-2011, 10:39 AM
I hope that we have such big leads going into fourth quarters that a) they sit Foster to rest him and b) our defense has no problem protecting these leads.

Hopefully Foster does not match his 2010 because he won't need to and we have other backs helping to carry the load. Foster needs to be injury free and rested going into our first playoff appearance in franchise history!

How's that for optimism? :fans:

I like it DB! Ya did well. Go Texans!

NBT
06-16-2011, 01:24 PM
From what I have been reading lately, the Texans don't plan to resign Vontae Leach, so Arian is losing his lead blocker. Tate hasn't done anything yet in the NFL, so it is a wait and see situation. In any case I don't think Arian can duplicate the 1600 yard season.

EllisUnit
06-16-2011, 04:37 PM
From what I have been reading lately, the Texans don't plan to resign Vontae Leach, so Arian is losing his lead blocker. Tate hasn't done anything yet in the NFL, so it is a wait and see situation. In any case I don't think Arian can duplicate the 1600 yard season.

i will lose ALL respect for the Front Office if they dont resign Leach. He has played his heart out for the texans and has been the NFLs best FB over the past few seasons.

gary
06-16-2011, 04:43 PM
i will lose ALL respect for the Front Office if they dont resign Leach. He has played his heart out for the texans and has been the NFLs best FB over the past few seasons.Agreed, if Vonte is not re-signed then someone should be fired.

nut
06-16-2011, 06:36 PM
Defenses will be keying on Foster more so it will be harder for him to rack up as much yardage.

CloakNNNdagger
06-16-2011, 09:45 PM
Defenses will be keying on Foster more so it will be harder for him to rack up as much yardage.

If Vonta is not re-signed, defenses will be more likely get an unobstructed view of Foster.

PapaL
06-16-2011, 10:36 PM
Does a bear poop in the woods and white his butt with a fluffy white rabbit?

YES

b0ng
06-17-2011, 01:24 AM
Defenses will be keying on Foster more so it will be harder for him to rack up as much yardage.

The passing game keeps them honest. If they keep the same crew he should have good numbers but I don't think he'll lead the league again.

KA4Texan
06-17-2011, 02:48 AM
I think the question isnt, can he match those numbers.

Can he do it, I say sure.

I think the real question is, will the coaching get in the way of matching those numbers, you know, by not utilizing him when the run game is obviously working.

edo783
06-17-2011, 11:34 PM
I very much doubt that Foster will come close to, much less exceed his 2010 performance. I think he will have a very good year, but market leaders seldom come back and exceed the previous level the next year. However, I could be wrong as I usually am 60% of the time about 30% of the things I comment on.

infantrycak
06-18-2011, 09:29 AM
I very much doubt that Foster will come close to, much less exceed his 2010 performance. I think he will have a very good year, but market leaders seldom come back and exceed the previous level the next year. However, I could be wrong as I usually am 60% of the time about 30% of the things I comment on.

That is the best bet. The real question is the Texan rushing attack as a whole. I have no problem with Foster having 1400 yards but Tate comes in for 500.

CloakNNNdagger
06-18-2011, 10:53 AM
That is the best bet. The real question is the Texan rushing attack as a whole. I have no problem with Foster having 1400 yards but Tate comes in for 500.


I would also agree that whether it be by single RB or by RB by committee, 1900 yards is 1900 yards. But I am still left with the question/concern........at this point in the Texans previously ugly history, do we really want to find out how our RBs will fair without Vonta?

The Pencil Neck
06-18-2011, 11:47 AM
I very much doubt that Foster will come close to, much less exceed his 2010 performance. I think he will have a very good year, but market leaders seldom come back and exceed the previous level the next year. However, I could be wrong as I usually am 60% of the time about 30% of the things I comment on.

The thing is that 1616 yards is not usually enough to lead the league in rushing. Arian could exceed his performance and not win the rushing title.

Over the past 10 years, only Ladanian Tomlinson has won the rushing title multiple times -- 2006 with 1815 yards and 2007 with 1474. But in the 10 years prior to that, only 4 guys won the rushing title: Emmitt Smith 4 times, Barry Sanders 3 times, Edgerrin James 2 times, and Terrell Davis once. All of those guys (except TD obviously) won a rushing title and then bettered that mark in the next year or two.

But the question is "can" not "will".

drs23
06-18-2011, 05:02 PM
I would also agree that whether it be by single RB or by RB by committee, 1900 yards is 1900 yards. But I am still left with the question/concern........at this point in the Texans previously ugly history, do we really want to find out how our RBs will fair without Vonta?

CND, I still think he'll be a Texan next year. Fullbacks are becoming rare in today's league. I think he'll test the waters, find out what the facts are, and be in Steel Blue again for the remainder of his career. And that's not Kool-Aid talkin. It's Bud Light! :D