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Texans_Chick
05-11-2011, 09:51 AM
Blog post up that surprised me as I wrote it. I knew the Texans defenses under Kubiak were young, but I didn't realize how young.

Texans starting defense youngest in NFL…again. This is not working. (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/05/texans-starting-defense-youngest-in-nfl-again/)

Best to combine reading that with the blog post at the end of the post re: Texans as Logan's Run.

I believe that the institutional bias against older players regardless of position puts the Texans in a poor position.

Will also note from something I wrote in the comments:

And, in looking at the data available, the defenses that Wade Phillips ran in ATL and SD were older than what the Texans have put on the field: ATL 2002-28.4, ATL 2003-28.0, SD 2004-27.1, SD 2005-26.5, SD 2006-27.5.

Ryan
05-11-2011, 10:06 AM
Even with the inflated numbers we got from Zgognina couldnt help us move away from that slot a couple years ago.

El Tejano
05-11-2011, 10:23 AM
That's because we don't get free agents over 30. Sux!

BigBull17
05-11-2011, 10:34 AM
Also, Rick Smith is absurdly in love with his draft picks. Keeping the "kids" over Reeves was also stupid.

gary
05-11-2011, 10:41 AM
Relying on rookies and the draft is just not working but the Texans have not received that message yet.

buddyboy
05-11-2011, 10:46 AM
This is a bit premature since we haven't been able to sign free agents. Of course our defense is going to be the youngest since we haven't added any vets since last year. I expect some older vets to be signed, call me crazy, but sure sounded to me that Bob wasn't pleased with the kiddie corners last year.

gary
05-11-2011, 10:49 AM
No cast offs either we need real and very solid free agents.

Corrosion
05-11-2011, 10:50 AM
Relying on rookies and the draft is just not working but the Texans have not received that message yet.

I think they are doing the right thing by building thru the draft - once they get close to title contention they can fill in the last hole or two with Vet FA's who tend to count considerably more against the cap .....

Filling those final pieces to the puzzle may happen this offseason .... once teams are able to negotiate with FA's.


On the other end of the spectrum you have the Washington Redskins ..... who stay in cap hell and seem to give away their draft picks on a yearly basis.

BigBull17
05-11-2011, 10:54 AM
No cast offs either we need real and very solid free agents.

Right now, we just need decentish players who don't embarrass themselves. Even just that would be a huge improvement. Hell, just having a D coordinator who isn't completely incompetent is a huge step.

gary
05-11-2011, 11:01 AM
I think they are doing the right thing by building thru the draft - once they get close to title contention they can fill in the last hole or two with Vet FA's who tend to count considerably more against the cap .....

Filling those final pieces to the puzzle may happen this offseason .... once teams are able to negotiate with FA's.


On the other end of the spectrum you have the Washington Redskins ..... who stay in cap hell and seem to give away their draft picks on a yearly basis.Going buck wild with signing free agents is not needed either but I'd chase at least three or four.

Right now, we just need decentish players who don't embarrass themselves. Even just that would be a huge improvement. Hell, just having a D coordinator who isn't completely incompetent is a huge step.That's true right there.

Texans_Chick
05-11-2011, 11:10 AM
This is a bit premature since we haven't been able to sign free agents. Of course our defense is going to be the youngest since we haven't added any vets since last year. I expect some older vets to be signed, call me crazy, but sure sounded to me that Bob wasn't pleased with the kiddie corners last year.

If you look at the table in the blog post, the average age of projected defensive starters pre-free agency right now is 27.26 years. No other team is close to the 24.7 mark. Youngest squads going into free agency are Den-26.1, Jax-26.8, STL-26.9, TB-26.7, All the other teams average starters 27 years old or older. Oldest teams right now are Bal-30.6, Min-30.5, Pit-31.5.

Now that looks like numbers that are rebuilding versus established, but the Texans number is a huge outlier 24.7. Nobody's average age numbers look like the Texans numbers, whether we are talking this year pre-free agency, or in previous years after free agency.

I will believe that the Texans are actually intending to sign impact free agents for the secondary when they actually do it.

gtexan02
05-11-2011, 11:12 AM
The Texans, and the NFL in general, have a Madden-esque view of rookies.

There is so much fanfare and excitement about the NFL draft that people often forget that its better if your rookies don't have to start right away.

I think its part of the reason we've started with horrific defense the past few seasons and then have progressively gotten better (or less bad really) at the end of the year

Rey
05-11-2011, 11:20 AM
Last year we got less bad because the teams on the back end of the schedule sucked.

nero THE zero
05-11-2011, 12:40 PM
I think it's a pretty safe assumption that we sign a free agent. Given the turnover already experienced, expected starters, and the assumption we sign Ike Taylor, that'd put us at 26 which, while still the lowest average, is not terribly disparate from any other team.

Average age is a pretty flawed stat, IMO. One extreme case can skew the average of the entire team. I'd bet this changes quite a bit if you look at median age and consider the above assumptions. Further, I'd reject the notion that the average age (or median age, for that matter) stat tells us anything in the first place. I mean, is there any correlation between age and success? Am I supposed to believe that a 26.1 year old defense is inherently better or worse than a 27.4 year old defense? That 1.3 years makes any difference?

Texecutioner
05-11-2011, 12:43 PM
The Texans have the youngest defense in the NFL again? What a shocker.


That's what happens when you're anti free agent to fill holes every off season and try to improve your team every year with rookies.

infantrycak
05-11-2011, 01:35 PM
Also, Rick Smith is absurdly in love with his draft picks. Keeping the "kids" over Reeves was also stupid.

I love how Reeves used to get trashed like Kareem is now but now that he is gone it was stupid to let him go. And yes I thought it was a mistake to release him, but I didn't think he was as bad as claimed either.

dalemurphy
05-11-2011, 03:44 PM
If you look at the table in the blog post, the average age of projected defensive starters pre-free agency right now is 27.26 years. No other team is close to the 24.7 mark. Youngest squads going into free agency are Den-26.1, Jax-26.8, STL-26.9, TB-26.7, All the other teams average starters 27 years old or older. Oldest teams right now are Bal-30.6, Min-30.5, Pit-31.5.

Now that looks like numbers that are rebuilding versus established, but the Texans number is a huge outlier 24.7. Nobody's average age numbers look like the Texans numbers, whether we are talking this year pre-free agency, or in previous years after free agency.

I will believe that the Texans are actually intending to sign impact free agents for the secondary when they actually do it.

This is a 2010 issue. The Texans were very young in 2010. Since the only thing that could happen at this point in the 2011 off-season is to get younger, that has happened. Nothing that has/hasn't happened this off-season signals the Texans desire/or lack of to field a team with veterans on defense. Furthermore, the decision to let Wilson and Pollard walk (thank God) may have skewed the numbers further, although I'm not sure the details how these numbers were arrived at (for instance, does it include 5 year players that have been offered a RFA tender?).

The Texans have stated that they intend to make changes in how they operate after the nightmare 2010 season and they have made a number of statements indicating a desire to be significant players in the free agent market. So, perhaps there is a relevant article there also about your cynicism regarding the Texans' front office following through.

Regardless, there is no evidence available or potentially available regarding the Texans' intention and ability to field a more experienced defense in 2011. We just have to wait. Or, you can trust my source and LZ's source- both of which say the Texans are looking to make 4 significant free agent acquisitions on defense, when free agency gets rolling. While some of you may be hoping for 34 years old to bring up that number, I'll take some of these 5 and 6 year vets still in their twenties, thank you very much.

disaacks3
05-11-2011, 05:05 PM
This is a bit premature since we haven't been able to sign free agents. Of course our defense is going to be the youngest since we haven't added any vets since last year. I expect some older vets to be signed, call me crazy, but sure sounded to me that Bob wasn't pleased with the kiddie corners last year. Then Bob needs to pony up and get some decent FA secondary players....again. When P-Burnt would be an improvement, you're doing something wrong. If the Texans elect not to play in the Aso sweepstaks this year, I'll know all I need to know about Bob's "Commitment to Winning".

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that we sign a free agent. Given the turnover already experienced, expected starters, and the assumption we sign Ike Taylor, that'd put us at 26 which, while still the lowest average, is not terribly disparate from any other team.

Average age is a pretty flawed stat, IMO. One extreme case can skew the average of the entire team. I'd bet this changes quite a bit if you look at median age and consider the above assumptions. Further, I'd reject the notion that the average age (or median age, for that matter) stat tells us anything in the first place. I mean, is there any correlation between age and success? Am I supposed to believe that a 26.1 year old defense is inherently better or worse than a 27.4 year old defense? That 1.3 years makes any difference? Not necessarily, but there is evidently a pretty BIG difference between a 24.x one and 26.x. If your team is the statistical 'outlier', and you're the worst at something, it's a pretty good guess that you need to reconsider your methodology.

Lucky
05-11-2011, 06:57 PM
If you look at the table in the blog post, the average age of projected defensive starters pre-free agency right now is 27.26 years. No other team is close to the 24.7 mark.
Who are the projected starters at CB and SS? I would project the following starters (pre-free agency):

Mario - OLB - 26 - 6th season
A. Smith - DE - 29 - 8th season
Mitchell - NT - 23 - 2nd season
Watt - DE - 22 - 1st season
Barwin - OLB - 24 - 3rd season
Cushing - ILB - 24 - 3rd season
Ryans - ILB - 27 - 6th season
Jackson - CB - 23 - 2nd season
Allen - CB - 28 - 6th season
Nolan - SS - 25 - 3rd season
Quin - FS - 25 - 3rd season

* Age as of Opening Day 9/11/11

I get an average age of 25.1 in their 3.9th year in the league. That could get somewhat older if Jackson and Nolan are replaced with older players. But, I doubt the average age would get to 26.

What has hurt the Texans is that guys like Travis Johnson, Dunta Robinson, and Jason Babin didn't pan out or were lost in free agency. And replaced by draft picks rather than vets. The Texans need to bring in vets to challenge young players like Jackson, Mitchell, and yes, even Watt. Handing out jobs to draft choices (rather than forcing them to win the jobs through competition) leads to these abnormal numbers.

Kaiser Toro
05-11-2011, 07:31 PM
Good read TC, thanks. Young players plus an inexperienced, and fluid, coaching staff is a match made in fail.

I liked the idea of Wade as DC, and like what I have seen since the hire. I am not expecting a top 15 defense, but I am expecting marked improvement.

phantom17
05-11-2011, 07:51 PM
Who are the projected starters at CB and SS? I would project the following starters (pre-free agency):

Mario - OLB - 26 - 6th season
A. Smith - DE - 29 - 8th season
Mitchell - NT - 23 - 2nd season
Watt - DE - 22 - 1st season
Barwin - OLB - 24 - 3rd season
Cushing - ILB - 24 - 3rd season
Ryans - ILB - 27 - 6th season
Jackson - CB - 23 - 2nd season
Allen - CB - 28 - 6th season
Nolan - SS - 25 - 3rd season
Quin - FS - 25 - 3rd season

* Age as of Opening Day 9/11/11

I get an average age of 25.1 in their 3.9th year in the league. That could get somewhat older if Jackson and Nolan are replaced with older players. But, I doubt the average age would get to 26.

What has hurt the Texans is that guys like Travis Johnson, Dunta Robinson, and Jason Babin didn't pan out or were lost in free agency. And replaced by draft picks rather than vets. The Texans need to bring in vets to challenge young players like Jackson, Mitchell, and yes, even Watt. Handing out jobs to draft choices (rather than forcing them to win the jobs through competition) leads to these abnormal numbers.

Nice! But what happened to Brooks Reed?:runaway: I would like to see him start if Barwin still not 100%

CloakNNNdagger
05-11-2011, 07:53 PM
If you look at the table in the blog post, the average age of projected defensive starters pre-free agency right now is 27.26 years. No other team is close to the 24.7 mark. Youngest squads going into free agency are Den-26.1, Jax-26.8, STL-26.9, TB-26.7, All the other teams average starters 27 years old or older. Oldest teams right now are Bal-30.6, Min-30.5, Pit-31.5.

Now that looks like numbers that are rebuilding versus established, but the Texans number is a huge outlier 24.7. Nobody's average age numbers look like the Texans numbers, whether we are talking this year pre-free agency, or in previous years after free agency.

I will believe that the Texans are actually intending to sign impact free agents for the secondary when they actually do it.

Exactly.

Nice review, TC. Rookies have a wide range of NFL preparedness and a wide range of ability. An extra year or two in the NFL can mold some less talented or less prepared players to higher levels. The younger the player, generally,the lesser the level of performance attained for whatever reason. Our problem is that if you rely solely on the draft, you better hit on almost every single pick as to either "instant high level pro ready (rare commodities)," or high level talent that can be quickly molded.........or discarded relatively early for better talent.

The Texans have tended to miss more than hit.............and to hold on to "failed experiments" way too long. Shouldn't having the ability to avoid these negative outcomes be something that distinguishes us fans from the Texans FO?

It's all in the technique.

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8Dsi8k778bcMC-c5A0aRsvItwHKozN77QWMqSGpHlIB9XUhqX&t=1

CloakNNNdagger
05-11-2011, 08:00 PM
duplicate

badboy
05-11-2011, 10:04 PM
I'm thinking that McNair feels he has been burned on some older free agents. If RBs, DBs, some Olinemen (remember the big old LT that never played a down for us?)crash & burn, he chooses to no longer take that risk. Both rookies and FAs are a crap shoot but with vets you have a slight advantage of NFL history. I think the draft should be apprx 90% of your team with the other 10% being through the free agency or trades like the Chris Myers or Schaub deals.

The problem is not going after free agents or avoiding them but rather in the choosing of the player. We think today that Phillips had a very good draft. If that turns out wrong, Phillips will lose much of his luster. Why is the coach of the Patriots considered a genious? His scouts ability to evaluate players! Age is only one factor and a lesser one at that over talent.

If Reed is terrific and Harris is a starter and Watt rotates like we hope or even starts, we will all be talking about the draft being the "way".

dalemurphy
05-12-2011, 02:51 AM
I'm thinking that McNair feels he has been burned on some older free agents. If RBs, DBs, some Olinemen (remember the big old LT that never played a down for us?)crash & burn, he chooses to no longer take that risk. Both rookies and FAs are a crap shoot but with vets you have a slight advantage of NFL history. I think the draft should be apprx 90% of your team with the other 10% being through the free agency or trades like the Chris Myers or Schaub deals.

The problem is not going after free agents or avoiding them but rather in the choosing of the player. We think today that Phillips had a very good draft. If that turns out wrong, Phillips will lose much of his luster. Why is the coach of the Patriots considered a genious? His scouts ability to evaluate players! Age is only one factor and a lesser one at that over talent.

If Reed is terrific and Harris is a starter and Watt rotates like we hope or even starts, we will all be talking about the draft being the "way".


The last 3 free agent markets have been remarkably weak. The Texans signed one of the biggest free agents available in free agency three years ago: Antonio Smith. I realize Smith isn't an elite talent but that's indicative of how weak the market was. Last season, trying to grab the best free agent CB in the open market, the Texans bid on Leigh Bodden. Other than Dunta, he was the top CB. That is a very uninspiring list if Leigh Bodden sits atop it. This season is scheduled to be a great free agent market. The Texans will be active in this one, because it offers value and an opportunity to improve the roster significantly.

nero THE zero
05-12-2011, 08:34 AM
But, I doubt the average age would get to 26.

It's pretty easy, actually.

JJ Watt
Shaun Cody
Antonio Smith
Mario Williams
DeMeco Ryans
Brian Cushing
Connor Barwin
Ike Taylor
Kareem Jackson
Glover Quin
Troy Nolan

That's 26, right there.

Obviously, the chances are that will not be our starting line-up, but it's as good of a guess as any given the information we have at the moment. Whatever the average age ends up being, it will be a lot closer to the league mean than it is right now, and is ultimately inconsequential.

nero THE zero
05-12-2011, 08:36 AM
Not necessarily, but there is evidently a pretty BIG difference between a 24.x one and 26.x. If your team is the statistical 'outlier', and you're the worst at something, it's a pretty good guess that you need to reconsider your methodology.
That is a big difference, and one that will not exist when we play the Colts in September.

badboy
05-12-2011, 08:52 AM
The last 3 free agent markets have been remarkably weak. The Texans signed one of the biggest free agents available in free agency three years ago: Antonio Smith. I realize Smith isn't an elite talent but that's indicative of how weak the market was. Last season, trying to grab the best free agent CB in the open market, the Texans bid on Leigh Bodden. Other than Dunta, he was the top CB. That is a very uninspiring list if Leigh Bodden sits atop it. This season is scheduled to be a great free agent market. The Texans will be active in this one, because it offers value and an opportunity to improve the roster significantly.That is not my understanding. Other than Nnamdi Asomugha at the top, who would be a superstar? SOme would be upgrades but would bring a hefty check versus their age. Those I've seen mentioned like Weddle don't really float my boat.

dalemurphy
05-12-2011, 09:00 AM
That is not my understanding. Other than Nnamdi Asomugha at the top, who would be a superstar? SOme would be upgrades but would bring a hefty check versus their age. Those I've seen mentioned like Weddle don't really float my boat.

This is just at CB:

Asomugha
Jonathan Joseph
Brandon Carr
Brent Grimes
Chris Carr
Antonio Cromartie
Josh Wilson
Ike Taylor
Richard Marshall
Carlos Rogers
Kelly Jennings
Eric Wright
Chris Houston
Drayton Florence

That's an incomplete list. Of that group, only Ike Taylor is over 30: he's 31.


It's supply and demand. There is so much supply this year that the price will be driven down on many of these guys. Trust me on this: Dunta would not be offered a $40 million contract if he was part of this group!

HOU-TEX
05-12-2011, 09:02 AM
The new CBA, or the rules put in place for 2011 will determine how good or bad free agency will be this year. Will it be 4 or 6 years on restricted players? If it's 4, FA will be utter chaos with so many eligible in such a little time period. If it's 6 years it'll be a bit more stable. I'd expect them to go with 6 years this season even if a new CBA is done.

dalemurphy
05-12-2011, 09:48 AM
The new CBA, or the rules put in place for 2011 will determine how good or bad free agency will be this year. Will it be 4 or 6 years on restricted players? If it's 4, FA will be utter chaos with so many eligible in such a little time period. If it's 6 years it'll be a bit more stable. I'd expect them to go with 6 years this season even if a new CBA is done.

Even if it is 6 years, the market will be flooded because there is still a significant group of 6 year FAs. And, because rules will restrict all playoff teams from spending on FAs, all upper tier FAs can only be pursued by 16 teams. The Texans will not have to compete against any of the top organizations for those FAs, so they won't lose out to New England because the player (money being similar) prefers to play for a winner.

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 09:59 AM
The new CBA, or the rules put in place for 2011 will determine how good or bad free agency will be this year. Will it be 4 or 6 years on restricted players? If it's 4, FA will be utter chaos with so many eligible in such a little time period. If it's 6 years it'll be a bit more stable. I'd expect them to go with 6 years this season even if a new CBA is done.

If there is no new CBA AND the lockout gets barred I don't see how the NFL imposes any restriction on free agency or translated anyone no matter how many seasons under their belt would be a free agent. There are almost 500 players between four and six years. Some of them will get together and make an anti-trust challenge to any attempt to restrict players not under contract. Heck, as a practical matter they can just announce that as their position and if NFL teams don't sign them use it as proof of anti-trust collusion.

Double Barrel
05-12-2011, 10:07 AM
When I read: "Texans starting defense youngest in NFL…again."

I see it as: "Texans think they can win in spite of themselves...again."

So, perhaps there is a relevant article there also about your cynicism regarding the Texans' front office following through.


This isn't a chicken or egg scenario. Nobody started as cynical Texans fans in 2002. We were all delusional that McNair would build a playoff team within a decade. The Texans are directly responsible for the cynicism in the fanbase by being inept at everything but putting out a perpetual mediocre product on the field.

Good read TC, thanks. Young players plus an inexperienced, and fluid, coaching staff is a match made in fail.

I liked the idea of Wade as DC, and like what I have seen since the hire. I am not expecting a top 15 defense, but I am expecting marked improvement.

I agree on both points, KT. I'm hoping Wade can overcome the FO habit of perpetuating failure.

nero THE zero
05-12-2011, 10:25 AM
If there is no new CBA AND the lockout gets barred I don't see how the NFL imposes any restriction on free agency or translated anyone no matter how many seasons under their belt would be a free agent. There are almost 500 players between four and six years. Some of them will get together and make an anti-trust challenge to any attempt to restrict players not under contract. Heck, as a practical matter they can just announce that as their position and if NFL teams don't sign them use it as proof of anti-trust collusion.

I wonder who'd sign Arian Foster under that scenario.

buddyboy
05-12-2011, 10:54 AM
When I read: "Texans starting defense youngest in NFL…again."

I see it as: "Texans think they can win in spite of themselves...again."


I'm still failing to see how the Texans could have corrected this problem from last year, because that's what this is: a problem from LAST year.

It's literally impossible for the Texans to have gotten older this offseason with the lack of FA, so until the lockout is over and the new CBA is/isn't made, i'd say hold off on the criticisms. I know we've been fooled many a time, but this time the FO hasn't had a single chance to fix their mistakes yet.

Double Barrel
05-12-2011, 01:57 PM
I'm still failing to see how the Texans could have corrected this problem from last year, because that's what this is: a problem from LAST year.


Seasons do not happen in a vacuum. Last years problems are not magically erased because it's a new season.

It's literally impossible for the Texans to have gotten older this offseason with the lack of FA, so until the lockout is over and the new CBA is/isn't made, i'd say hold off on the criticisms. I know we've been fooled many a time, but this time the FO hasn't had a single chance to fix their mistakes yet.

Then you are free to hold off on the criticism. I'm too skeptical to be a happy, shiny fan at this point. I don't share your apparent optimism that this FO has the ability to fix their mistakes.

Texecutioner
05-12-2011, 02:09 PM
I'm still failing to see how the Texans could have corrected this problem from last year, because that's what this is: a problem from LAST year.

It's literally impossible for the Texans to have gotten older this offseason with the lack of FA, so until the lockout is over and the new CBA is/isn't made, i'd say hold off on the criticisms. I know we've been fooled many a time, but this time the FO hasn't had a single chance to fix their mistakes yet.

Are you suggesting that we don't look at history with what this organization has done and make an educated prediction based off of what we've seen this team's management do in the past with free agency to what are expectations are? Disregarding history is one of the most foolish things you could do. It tells us what kind of tendencies and habits many organization's management has and the coaching staff as well. Would it be that far out to predict that Al Davis or Dan Snyder might way over pay for a few players?? No it wouldn't because we see both of those teams routinely do that in every off season based on their history, so it gives you an idea of what to expect until proven otherwise with a different type of consistency.

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 02:23 PM
Disregarding history is one of the most foolish things you could do.

Disregarding current circumstances is one of the most foolish things you could do.

See how that works?

Texecutioner
05-12-2011, 02:25 PM
Disregarding current circumstances is one of the most foolish things you could do.

See how that works?

What the heck are you talking about?

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 02:45 PM
What the heck are you talking about?

Just as buddyboy said there has been no free agency so far. It has been IMPOSSIBLE for the Texans to sign vets. History doesn't apply to this circumstance since it has never happened in the Texans' existence.

Texecutioner
05-12-2011, 03:29 PM
Just as buddyboy said there has been no free agency so far. It has been IMPOSSIBLE for the Texans to sign vets. History doesn't apply to this circumstance since it has never happened in the Texans' existence.

As DB stated and I as well, I'll consider the history of this organization and their lack of making any strong moves in free agency to fill big holes on this team whether we're in a lockout or not. I don't think there would be any strong moves made at this point at all, and when this lockout is over I don't think we'll go after the "necessary" guys that we'll need to go after in order to make that big push, because history tells me otherwise. If we do by signing Aso and Steve Smith, then I'll be giddy as a 5 year old on Christmas to say I was wrong in this off season, but I won't hold my breath on that happening, because we haven't been that kind of aggressive team that's highly committed to winning and also Bob already said that "we're not going to do anything crazy" which tells me that he has no intentions on paying what it will take to sign Aso who everyone agrees is a no brainer.

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 03:41 PM
As DB stated and I as well, I'll consider the history of this organization and their lack of making any strong moves in free agency to fill big holes on this team whether we're in a lockout or not. I don't think there would be any strong moves made at this point at all, and when this lockout is over I don't think we'll go after the "necessary" guys that we'll need to go after in order to make that big push, because history tells me otherwise. If we do by signing Aso and Steve Smith, then I'll be giddy as a 5 year old on Christmas to say I was wrong in this off season, but I won't hold my breath on that happening, because we haven't been that kind of aggressive team that's highly committed to winning and also Bob already said that "we're not going to do anything crazy" which tells me that he has no intentions on paying what it will take to sign Aso who everyone agrees is a no brainer.

I'm well versed with your cynicism. But what you and DB responded to was a post specifically about age and how there was no way for it to have been adjusted from last year to this year at this point. That has nothing to do with history. And it was correct.

Rey
05-12-2011, 03:42 PM
Didn't they have a chance to bring some guys in before the lock out began?

Double Barrel
05-12-2011, 03:58 PM
I'm well versed with your cynicism. But what you and DB responded to was a post specifically about age and how there was no way for it to have been adjusted from last year to this year at this point. That has nothing to do with history. And it was correct.

Because it's deeper than this off-season and the lockout.

I'm not sure if we are just looking at the subject from different heights, but TC hit the nail on the head and sums up my feelings on this FO:

I believe that the institutional bias against older players regardless of position puts the Texans in a poor position.


I don't think the FO would correct the age concern if there wasn't a lockout. They seem to act like they can operate by whatever standards they impose on themselves and still be successful. Which is my statement: "Texans think they can win in spite of themselves...again."

buddyboy's implication that my statement was specific to this off-season is an incorrect assumption. My statement was more about the M.O. of this franchise, although I admit it was unclear in that regard.

dalemurphy
05-12-2011, 04:36 PM
Because it's deeper than this off-season and the lockout.

I'm not sure if we are just looking at the subject from different heights, but TC hit the nail on the head and sums up my feelings on this FO:



I don't think the FO would correct the age concern if there wasn't a lockout. They seem to act like they can operate by whatever standards they impose on themselves and still be successful. Which is my statement: "Texans think they can win in spite of themselves...again."

buddyboy's implication that my statement was specific to this off-season is an incorrect assumption. My statement was more about the M.O. of this franchise, although I admit it was unclear in that regard.


Regardless, the great thing about the forthcoming FA market, is it's full of very talented players between the ages of 26-30. The Texans do not have a bias against that. As a matter of a fact, this is the kind of free agent market that the Texans' organization would've lusted for two years ago... and, I think they are eager to participate in right now.

Double Barrel
05-12-2011, 04:42 PM
Regardless, the great thing about the forthcoming FA market, is it's full of very talented players between the ages of 26-30. The Texans do not have a bias against that. As a matter of a fact, this is the kind of free agent market that the Texans' organization would've lusted for two years ago... and, I think they are eager to participate in right now.

As a Texans fan, I sincerely hope that you are right in this projection.

As an NFL fan, I do not see the Texans being bold based on their history.

Rick Smith is the same brainiac that insisted youth was the answer last year, and now he's the same guy that is supposed to fix it? For some reason, I lack the faith that he can overcome his own arrogance about being wrong.

dalemurphy
05-12-2011, 04:54 PM
As a Texans fan, I sincerely hope that you are right in this projection.

As an NFL fan, I do not see the Texans being bold based on their history.

Rick Smith is the same brainiac that insisted youth was the answer last year, and now he's the same guy that is supposed to fix it? For some reason, I lack the faith that he can overcome his own arrogance about being wrong.

Possibly you are right, however, the lack of activity won't be because of an age bias or because a lack of available talent. So, we will see.

badboy
05-12-2011, 04:55 PM
This is just at CB:

Asomugha
Jonathan Joseph
Brandon Carr
Brent Grimes
Chris Carr
Antonio Cromartie
Josh Wilson
Ike Taylor
Richard Marshall
Carlos Rogers
Kelly Jennings
Eric Wright
Chris Houston
Drayton Florence

That's an incomplete list. Of that group, only Ike Taylor is over 30: he's 31.


It's supply and demand. There is so much supply this year that the price will be driven down on many of these guys. Trust me on this: Dunta would not be offered a $40 million contract if he was part of this group!Yes, but how many of those will remain with their original team? For the price you will have to pay, I don't think many would be worht bring to Texans. If McNair is going to overpay and he will, only Aso meets the skills/age for the money imo.
Ike Taylor just had the last season comeback right? I ama bit uneasy about him. Again, I'm not saying many of these would be an upgrade, I just want more than that for the bucks they will command.

dalemurphy
05-12-2011, 05:06 PM
Yes, but how many of those will remain with their original team? For the price you will have to pay, I don't think many would be worht bring to Texans. If McNair is going to overpay and he will, only Aso meets the skills/age for the money imo.
Ike Taylor just had the last season comeback right? I ama bit uneasy about him. Again, I'm not saying many of these would be an upgrade, I just want more than that for the bucks they will command.

They are all free agents. It will cost their former team as much as the Texans to sign them. The fact that there is, literally, a dozen or more quality CBs on the market means that they will be more affordable, not less. How many of the 32 NFL franchises will be willing to spend $7 million per year on a free agent CB?

badboy
05-12-2011, 05:31 PM
They are all free agents. It will cost their former team as much as the Texans to sign them. The fact that there is, literally, a dozen or more quality CBs on the market means that they will be more affordable, not less. How many of the 32 NFL franchises will be willing to spend $7 million per year on a free agent CB?

imo, this makes my point. Many will give home town discounts to their original teams and not move their families,etc. Those who will go to other teams will want big bucks and none of those would I give it to. I hope I'm wrong and we have our choice as you seem to be implying, but I doubt it.

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 07:14 PM
imo, this makes my point. Many will give home town discounts to their original teams and not move their families,etc. Those who will go to other teams will want big bucks and none of those would I give it to. I hope I'm wrong and we have our choice as you seem to be implying, but I doubt it.

I think all the home town (whether it be where they are now or what state they are from) discount and "want to go to a winner" arguments are vastly overstated. At the end of the day for the most part it is about money.

Rey
05-12-2011, 07:36 PM
I think all the home town (whether it be where they are now or what state they are from) discount and "want to go to a winner" arguments are vastly overstated. At the end of the day for the most part it is about money.

So players HAVE wanted to come here, but the Texans have just been cheap?

:kitten:


Seriously though...If it's just about money, this would be a good off-season to over pay for a guy like Nmadi....

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 08:04 PM
So players HAVE wanted to come here, but the Texans have just been cheap?

:kitten:


Seriously though...If it's just about money, this would be a good off-season to over pay for a guy like Nmadi....

I don't doubt any number of free agents have been willing to come here. Whether it is being cheap is a different discussion. Let's use Dunta as an example. I would of loved to keep him for $5 mil per year. Demand $9 mil per year and I am letting you walk. I don't consider that being cheap so much as being smart and setting a price.

I would LOVE for the Texans to get Nnamdi. But what does he want? There has to be a price. If he wants $20 mil per year then nope and I don't think that is being cheap. This was and likely will be a cap league so money spent on one is money not available for others. If he will take a "last contract" that averages say $13 mil over 7 years then heck yeah jump on it even though you know the last few years probably won't be great.

Rey
05-12-2011, 08:08 PM
I don't doubt any number of free agents have been willing to come here. Whether it is being cheap is a different discussion. Let's use Dunta as an example. I would of loved to keep him for $5 mil per year. Demand $9 mil per year and I am letting you walk. I don't consider that being cheap so much as being smart and setting a price.

I would LOVE for the Texans to get Nnamdi. But what does he want? There has to be a price. If he wants $20 mil per year then nope and I don't think that is being cheap. This was and likely will be a cap league so money spent on one is money not available for others. If he will take a "last contract" that averages say $13 mil over 7 years then heck yeah jump on it even though you know the last few years probably won't be great.


I don't really keep up with player contracts, but did Dunta really get 9 mil/yr?

infantrycak
05-12-2011, 08:15 PM
I don't really keep up with player contracts, but did Dunta really get 9 mil/yr?

Six years, $57 mil. So a little over. I can't understand anyone criticizing the Texans for not being willing to pay that.

Rey
05-12-2011, 08:23 PM
Six years, $57 mil. So a little over. I can't understand anyone criticizing the Texans for not being willing to pay that.

I didn't mind the Texans not paying that kind of contract to Dunta...I would have liked to see them franchise him again though...He probably wasn't worth that either, but it wouldn't have been the long term big money deal.

That said, Dunta being on the field probably doesn't really do a whole lot to make the defense better that it was last year...

But yea, I agree with you about the Texans not being at fault for refusing to give him all that money...

drs23
05-12-2011, 08:59 PM
I didn't mind the Texans not paying that kind of contract to Dunta...I would have liked to see them franchise him again though...He probably wasn't worth that either, but it wouldn't have been the long term big money deal.

That said, Dunta being on the field probably doesn't really do a whole lot to make the defense better that it was last year...

But yea, I agree with you about the Texans not being at fault for refusing to give him all that money...

Likewise, but there are folks today with the impression that he would have saved our season last year. "Letting our best CB walk" or something to that effect. IMHO if that's the best we had, we didn't lose much. My money says he don't make more than 2 more years of that contract. Not haten', just sayin'.

CloakNNNdagger
05-15-2011, 08:18 AM
Taylor intends to play 2 ends against the middle.

Source: Ike Taylor plans to test the market (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/15/source-ike-taylor-plans-to-test-the-market/)
Getty ImagesScott Brown of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review interpreted recent comments from cornerback Ike Taylor as indicating that Taylor will return to the Steelers.

If Taylor does, it will happen because the Steelers offered him a market-value contract, or at least something very close to it.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Taylor fully intends to test the open market whenever free agency begins. So even though Taylor had good things to say about his eight years in Pittsburgh, when he says that the ball is in the team’s court, he apparently means that it’s up to the team to match (or at least come close to matching) any offers he receives.

The fact that Taylor isn’t regarded as a top-tier cornerback may not matter all that much. The draft wasn’t regarded as having a deep class of high-end talent, and beyond Nnamdi Asomugha and Antonio Cromartie, there aren’t many/any big names in the free-agent pool.

SteveSlaton20
05-15-2011, 07:15 PM
Blog post up that surprised me as I wrote it. I knew the Texans defenses under Kubiak were young, but I didn't realize how young.

Texans starting defense youngest in NFL…again. This is not working. (http://blog.chron.com/texanschick/2011/05/texans-starting-defense-youngest-in-nfl-again/)

Best to combine reading that with the blog post at the end of the post re: Texans as Logan's Run.

I believe that the institutional bias against older players regardless of position puts the Texans in a poor position.

Will also note from something I wrote in the comments:

would've been a good point if the season was about to start in a week.

badboy
05-15-2011, 07:24 PM
Taylor intends to play 2 ends against the middle.I'm tired of being used to drive up the contract. "Hey, tell me what you want and either I pay or not. If we agree to your price you have to sign deal immediately. No taking it back to another team."

Texans_Chick
05-15-2011, 07:46 PM
would've been a good point if the season was about to start in a week.

Did you read the article? The table shows that the Texans even before free agency is on average younger than the rest of the league pre-free agency. The Texans are the youngest at 24.7 pre-free agency. next youngest pre-free agency are Carolina (26.4), Cleveland (26.6), Detroit (26.1), Jacksonville (26.8), Tampa Bay (26.7). So only 6 teams averaging pre-free agency under 27, and the Texans are the only ones averaging under 25.

What I am telling you is that how the Texans do business with the youth of their defensive starters is substantially different than the norm in the rest of the league and has been since Kubiak was coach. Since 2006, they've had 5 of the 8 youngest starting defensive lineups in the league post-free agency, and those 5 defenses have been disastrous with the one "good" year being just below average.

If you look at the raw numbers, they are bizarre. Nobody's numbers look like the Texans. I'm not saying that the Texans are doomed to suck before free agents are even acquired, but what I am saying is that these numbers are alarming and odd and would suggest doing something different in free agency than what they've been doing.

beerlover
05-15-2011, 08:19 PM
Appreciate intensive research to grab data points using age variances to project future success but I think its an aberration via expansion franchise over compensating with scheme & youth like a caterpillar metamorphosis into a :butterfly:

ChampionTexan
05-15-2011, 08:57 PM
I'm tired of being used to drive up the contract. "Hey, tell me what you want and either I pay or not. If we agree to your price you have to sign deal immediately. No taking it back to another team."

So if Vonta and/or Jacoby were willing to give the Texans an opportunity to match an offer another team gave them, would you advise them to decline that opportunity on principle?

Lucky
05-15-2011, 10:43 PM
In 2004, Wade Phillips was hired by the San Diego Chargers to transform a weak 4-3 defense (27th in yards, 31st in points allowed) into a competent 3-4 unit. On hand, Wade had the following:

Jamal Williams - DT - 7th year
Jacques Cesaire - DT - 2nd year
Ben Leber - OLB - 3rd year
Donnie Edwards - OLB - 9th year
Quenton Jammer - CB - 3rd year
Sammy Davis - CB - 2nd year
Terrence Kiel - SS - 2nd year
Jerry Wilson - FS - 9th year

The Chargers picked up these defensive starters in free agency

Randall Godfrey - ILB - 9th year
Steve Foley - OLB - 7th year

In the draft, the Chargers found a starting DE in the 2nd round:

Igor Olshansky - DE - 1st year

Only Edwards (who switched to ILB) and Foley had previous experience in the 3-4. Jamal Williams converted to NT, while Cesaire ( a part time player in '03) converted to DE. This group coached by Phillips finished 11th in points allowed, 18th in yardage, and 8th in turnovers. Great? No, but good enough to get into the playoffs. Phillips didn't make wholesale changes to personnel, he adapted the talent on hand.

So how does the 2011 Texans defense compare to the 2004 Charger unit? Let's go to the tape to see you has the edge in experience:

LDE (JJ Watt vs. Igor Olshansky) Two huge rookies starting at LDE. Spooky. Edge - draw.

NT (Earl Mitchell vs Jamal Williams) Williams already had 46 starts under his belt prior to the position change. Mitchell's next start will be his first. Edge - Chargers.

RDE (Antonio Smith vs Jacques Cesaire) Smith has at least played some 3-4 in Arizona (but he didn't like it) Cesaire has 4 NFL games under his belt entering the 2004 season. Edge - Texans.

LOLB (Connor Barwin vs Ben Leber) Both 3rd year players. Neither had 3-4 experience. Edge - draw.

LILB (Brian Cushing vs Donnie Edwards) Cushing saw some time at MLB in '10, but he isn't close to Edwards in experience. Edge - Chargers.

RILB (DeMeco Ryans vs Randall Godfrey) The difference between a 9th year player and a 6th year player is minimal, at best. Edge - draw.

ROLB (Mario Williams vs Steve Foley) While Foley was exposed to the Texans 3-4 in 2003, his experience in years past was in the 4-3. Edge - draw.

LCB (Jason Allen vs Quenton Jammer) While Allen has been in the league longer, Jammer has more starts. Edge - draw.

RCB (Kareem Jackson vs Sammy Davis) Both 2nd year players who started as rookies. Edge - draw.

SS (Troy Nolan vs Terrence Kiel) Two young safeties without a lot of experience. Edge - draw.

FS (Glover Quin vs Jerry Wilson) Quin (in his 3rd season) has never played safety. Wilson had been a reserve in the league for years prior to becoming a starter at FS in 2003. Edge - Chargers.

That's 3 edge's to the Chargers, one to the Texans, and 7 draws. Looking at the advantages for the Chargers, it would b nice to have a ILB with Edwards' experience. But, I would rather have Cushing and his talent. While I know that Phillips is excited about Mitchell's potential at NT, it would be wise to bring in a vet to show him the ropes (Pat Williams, or even Jamal Williams, himself).

The difference at FS seems to me to be the most glaring. I've advocated for the texans to bring in a talented veteran CB. I still think that's a good idea. But, they need a veteran at safety, just as badly. And with the Texans planning to go with a 2 deep look at safety, Nolan would likely be the odd man out.

Talent wise, you have to give the edge to the Texans. Which is why getting past this labor dispute is so important for Houston. Acquiring a few key defensive free agents, and getting everyone into mini camps and OTAs is imperative for this defense to make the type of strides that can catapult the Texans into the playoffs.

Rey
05-15-2011, 10:57 PM
I'm tired of being used to drive up the contract. "Hey, tell me what you want and either I pay or not. If we agree to your price you have to sign deal immediately. No taking it back to another team."

That's just business.

If you made those types of stipulations you either wouldn't get any visits, or players would just ignore what you're saying and do it anyways.

Dread-Head
05-16-2011, 10:08 AM
(Sigh) I hear ya. Bill! Suit up brother...let's go teach these kids how to play some football.

drs23
05-16-2011, 01:38 PM
In 2004, Wade Phillips was hired by the San Diego Chargers to transform a weak 4-3 defense (27th in yards, 31st in points allowed) into a competent 3-4 unit. On hand, Wade had the following:

Jamal Williams - DT - 7th year
Jacques Cesaire - DT - 2nd year
Ben Leber - OLB - 3rd year
Donnie Edwards - OLB - 9th year
Quenton Jammer - CB - 3rd year
Sammy Davis - CB - 2nd year
Terrence Kiel - SS - 2nd year
Jerry Wilson - FS - 9th year

The Chargers picked up these defensive starters in free agency

Randall Godfrey - ILB - 9th year
Steve Foley - OLB - 7th year

In the draft, the Chargers found a starting DE in the 2nd round:

Igor Olshansky - DE - 1st year

Only Edwards (who switched to ILB) and Foley had previous experience in the 3-4. Jamal Williams converted to NT, while Cesaire ( a part time player in '03) converted to DE. This group coached by Phillips finished 11th in points allowed, 18th in yardage, and 8th in turnovers. Great? No, but good enough to get into the playoffs. Phillips didn't make wholesale changes to personnel, he adapted the talent on hand.

So how does the 2011 Texans defense compare to the 2004 Charger unit? Let's go to the tape to see you has the edge in experience:

LDE (JJ Watt vs. Igor Olshansky) Two huge rookies starting at LDE. Spooky. Edge - draw.

NT (Earl Mitchell vs Jamal Williams) Williams already had 46 starts under his belt prior to the position change. Mitchell's next start will be his first. Edge - Chargers.

RDE (Antonio Smith vs Jacques Cesaire) Smith has at least played some 3-4 in Arizona (but he didn't like it) Cesaire has 4 NFL games under his belt entering the 2004 season. Edge - Texans.

LOLB (Connor Barwin vs Ben Leber) Both 3rd year players. Neither had 3-4 experience. Edge - draw.

LILB (Brian Cushing vs Donnie Edwards) Cushing saw some time at MLB in '10, but he isn't close to Edwards in experience. Edge - Chargers.

RILB (DeMeco Ryans vs Randall Godfrey) The difference between a 9th year player and a 6th year player is minimal, at best. Edge - draw.

ROLB (Mario Williams vs Steve Foley) While Foley was exposed to the Texans 3-4 in 2003, his experience in years past was in the 4-3. Edge - draw.

LCB (Jason Allen vs Quenton Jammer) While Allen has been in the league longer, Jammer has more starts. Edge - draw.

RCB (Kareem Jackson vs Sammy Davis) Both 2nd year players who started as rookies. Edge - draw.

SS (Troy Nolan vs Terrence Kiel) Two young safeties without a lot of experience. Edge - draw.

FS (Glover Quin vs Jerry Wilson) Quin (in his 3rd season) has never played safety. Wilson had been a reserve in the league for years prior to becoming a starter at FS in 2003. Edge - Chargers.

That's 3 edge's to the Chargers, one to the Texans, and 7 draws. Looking at the advantages for the Chargers, it would b nice to have a ILB with Edwards' experience. But, I would rather have Cushing and his talent. While I know that Phillips is excited about Mitchell's potential at NT, it would be wise to bring in a vet to show him the ropes (Pat Williams, or even Jamal Williams, himself).

The difference at FS seems to me to be the most glaring. I've advocated for the texans to bring in a talented veteran CB. I still think that's a good idea. But, they need a veteran at safety, just as badly. And with the Texans planning to go with a 2 deep look at safety, Nolan would likely be the odd man out.

Talent wise, you have to give the edge to the Texans. Which is why getting past this labor dispute is so important for Houston. Acquiring a few key defensive free agents, and getting everyone into mini camps and OTAs is imperative for this defense to make the type of strides that can catapult the Texans into the playoffs.

:goodpost: Great research, great presetation. REP