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brakos82
05-04-2011, 12:56 AM
Once again hurricane season is nearly upon us (starts June 1), and the tropical Atlantic waters are looking favorable for another active season. After last year's 19 named systems, we currently expect a less active overall season across the basin. However, the proverbial "lid to the popcorn popper", the Bermuda High that normally sits over the mid-latitude Atlantic during the summer and early fall, is expected to be in place this season, so storms are expected to be pointed farther south, towards the Caribbean, GOMEX, and southeast coastlines. Neutral or La Nina conditions are expected to persist in the Pacific basin through this season, leading to a more active Atlantic season than average.

Pre-season storm predictions are consistent across the board, with expectations of an active season. 15-17 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, with 5 possibly becoming major.

Predictions from Colorado State University:
- 72% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%)
- 48% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%)
- 47% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%)
- 61% chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (the long-term average is 42%)

Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anoma.5.2.2011.gif
May 2 SST anomalies showing warmer than average waters over the tropical Atlantic.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rgb-l.jpg
Current wide view of the Atlantic Basin.

Dutchrudder
05-04-2011, 10:53 AM
Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

Thorn
05-04-2011, 11:47 AM
Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

"Vince" is on that list. Just sayin' :lol:

Looks like it time to start stocking up on the extra water and canned goods and stuff. The only thing worse than trying to ride out a hurricane is being in a grocery store right before it hits.

GlassHalfFull
05-04-2011, 01:04 PM
Names to be used for the 2011 season:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia - close
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean -my son's name
Tammy
Vince
Whitney



Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.

TexanSam
05-04-2011, 01:07 PM
Gert? What kind of name is that?

Showtime100
05-04-2011, 01:28 PM
Gert? What kind of name is that?

LOL! It's a German name, maybe French too, can't remember. I think it was common in the 19th century. Ask Thorn or JB, they were there. :D

I can already see the signs..."Gert TFO!!!

Señor Stan
05-04-2011, 01:29 PM
Anyone else represented? Besides VY that is.

Franklin...my middle name. Yeah, yeah, I know...it's a family name. I got lucky. There's a Ralph, Delbert and a Grover that could have been in play there.

brakos82
05-27-2011, 02:59 PM
The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.

CretorFrigg
05-27-2011, 04:42 PM
Those are all white names. This atrocity must be stopped! I'll put an end to this...

Jose, really dude? lol

Showtime100
05-27-2011, 04:48 PM
The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin starts this Wednesday, June 1, and we may be expecting some early-season action from a tropical wave currently southwest of Panama. This wave is expected to move northeast over the next few days, entering what will then be a moderately favorable environment for development. The Caribbean waters are warm enough to support development, and the current wind shear environment will be moving north over Cuba in the coming week. The hardest thing with waves moving east from the Pacific, as well as waves below 10N, is gaining enough spin to develop into more than just a storm cluster. Some models hint at some form of development between Central America and Jamaica in the May 30 - June 2 time range.

Maybe they'll call it TS El Caballo. All it will do is twirl around and not hit a damned thing. :D

BeerTastesLikeVictory
05-27-2011, 05:06 PM
"Vince" is on that list. Just sayin' :lol:



I wouldn't worry about hurricane Vince. The meteorologists might hype it up to be the next Katrina, but in the end it will just fizzle out before it hits land.

badboy
05-27-2011, 08:11 PM
What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?

Thorn
05-28-2011, 02:07 AM
What are the odds that another hurricane will come thru my front door like Ike?

Mother Nature knows no odds. She does as she pleases.

brakos82
05-28-2011, 02:20 AM
A little late-night research that I found interesting.... busier tornado seasons in the U.S. lead to slower production of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The 10 busiest tornado seasons on record since 1950 (2011 will certainly be the top season when all is said and done) produced 14% fewer hurricanes than average. A good sign possibly.

Other than 2005, there's no statistical difference between a calm tornado season and the hurricane output of the Atlantic basin. (2005 had the 3rd-least number of F-3 or higher tornadoes.)

awtysst
05-28-2011, 09:05 PM
A little late-night research that I found interesting.... busier tornado seasons in the U.S. lead to slower production of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The 10 busiest tornado seasons on record since 1950 (2011 will certainly be the top season when all is said and done) produced 14% fewer hurricanes than average. A good sign possibly.

Other than 2005, there's no statistical difference between a calm tornado season and the hurricane output of the Atlantic basin. (2005 had the 3rd-least number of F-3 or higher tornadoes.)

Sounds good to me. If are hurricanes, hopefully they lose steam long before they hit any inhabited areas.

brakos82
05-31-2011, 12:21 PM
The hurricane season starts tomorrow, June 1, and the signs of an early potential system continue to build together. A large area of moisture in the central Caribbean, currently experiencing high wind shear, will have a more favorable environment around Thursday, as wind shear levels are expected to drop over the next few days, and a tropical wave currently located around 10N-60W moves westward and into the region. A low pressure system will develop over the central Caribbean, but how organised or strong this system becomes is still unknown. Either way, Haiti, Hispanola, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should be prepared for moderate to heavy rains later this week.

awtysst
05-31-2011, 12:27 PM
The hurricane season starts tomorrow, June 1, and the signs of an early potential system continue to build together. A large area of moisture in the central Caribbean, currently experiencing high wind shear, will have a more favorable environment around Thursday, as wind shear levels are expected to drop over the next few days, and a tropical wave currently located around 10N-60W moves westward and into the region. A low pressure system will develop over the central Caribbean, but how organised or strong this system becomes is still unknown. Either way, Haiti, Hispanola, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands should be prepared for moderate to heavy rains later this week.

How is Miami looking?

If any of those stranded South Beach hotties needs a place to stay, in the name of generosity, empathy, and understanding, Elvis and I will gladly open our doors to them. :)

Thorn
05-31-2011, 12:31 PM
Damn, I'm usually all stocked up by now. I'm going to have to start hitting the grocery store on the way home from work and picking up water and canned goods to get completely caught up.

brakos82
05-31-2011, 01:10 PM
How is Miami looking?

If any of those stranded South Beach hotties needs a place to stay, in the name of generosity, empathy, and understanding, Elvis and I will gladly open our doors to them. :)

Nothing exciting, whatever develops is expected to get sheared to the east by the time it would get anywhere near there.

:lol: Better luck next time?

brakos82
06-01-2011, 06:13 PM
Taking a cue from the calendar, mother nature is starting hurricane season right on time.

A "surprise" disturbance is currently spinning over central Florida... This system is getting organized, however, this system has moved over Daytona Beach, killing its development temporarily. It will be moving to the west-southwest over time, entering slightly favorable waters in the eastern Gulf. Development won't occur over the Florida peninsula, but a tropical depression could form west of Florida within the next few days.

The Central Caribbean moisture continues to sit over the warm waters, with little signs of development. This system will merge with a tropical wave moving westward across the Lesser Antilles around Friday or Saturday, which could add some fuel to produce a tropical depression around that time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

awtysst
06-03-2011, 10:22 AM
In all seriousness, I really hope that we are spared any serious hurricanes or any damage this year. We really cannot afford more problems this summer.

Showtime100
06-03-2011, 05:27 PM
In all seriousness, I really hope that we are spared any serious hurricanes or any damage this year. We really cannot afford more problems this summer.

I would like some harmless Tropical Storm(s) to come in and plant itself right over Austin like what happened last year.

GlassHalfFull
06-03-2011, 09:06 PM
I have a nasty feeling that Houston is going to move straight from drought to flood with no steps in between.

brakos82
06-28-2011, 12:19 AM
A tropical disturbance currently moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche has potential for development. The NHC is giving this system a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, most of the moisture will be moving west-northwest towards northeastern Mexico over the next few days.

brakos82
06-28-2011, 09:58 PM
We have our first tropical storm of the season, Arlene, which formed this afternoon in the Bay of Campeche. The storm's track has it heading for Northeast Mexico, and unfortunately for the drought-stricken Southwest US, the storm's track will continue to push westward through Mexico, instead of making a northerly turn. The southern tip of Texas may receive some rainfall, but over 90% of the state will likely remain untouched by Arlene.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201101_5day.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb.jpg

brakos82
06-29-2011, 12:15 PM
Arlene continues its march towards the east-central Mexican coast. While Arlene is getting better organized in the southwest Gulf, it's not expected to reach hurricane strength before reaching land. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the east-central Mexican coastline.

TexanSam
06-29-2011, 12:17 PM
Arlene continues its march towards the east-central Mexican coast. While Arlene is getting better organized in the southwest Gulf, it's not expected to reach hurricane strength before reaching land. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the east-central Mexican coastline.

Damnit, mother nature needs to let out a huge fart from the south and push it a little closer to Texas. We need rain!

Showtime100
06-29-2011, 02:03 PM
Damnit, mother nature needs to let out a huge fart from the south and push it a little closer to Texas. We need rain!

Hey Sam, I saw on the news last week in San Marcos if you go to a restaurant you now must ask for water otherwise you won't get it. I'll bet that makes for awkward situations with thirsty customers not from the area.

TexanSam
06-29-2011, 09:23 PM
Hey Sam, I saw on the news last week in San Marcos if you go to a restaurant you now must ask for water otherwise you won't get it. I'll bet that makes for awkward situations with thirsty customers not from the area.

Yeah I read about that in the local newspaper. Honestly, it's usually like that to begin with. Besides the local Saltgrass, I can't think of any restaurant that serves people water without asking. Restaurants in San Marcos aren't exactly known for their service. I think some of them were supposed to give water prior to the new restrictions but the waiters are so bad they just forgot.

brakos82
07-14-2011, 11:47 PM
While the Atlantic basin remains quiet, southern Japan needs to be prepared for a strong typhoon around Tuesday of next week. Typhoon Ma-On, currently a category 3 storm, has just passed the northern Marianas, and will be making a northwesterly curve towards the southern portion of Japan... storm strength is hard to predict 5 days out, but current forecasts put Ma-On as a category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/wp201108_5day.gif

brakos82
07-18-2011, 12:22 AM
Tropical Storm Bret formed earlier today over the northwestern Bahamas. Bret's path will keep the core of the system off of the U.S. coast... although the Florida peninsula may receive some rain from Bret over the next day or two. Bret is not expected to become a hurricane, or be a threat to anything other than NW Bahamas, Bermuda, or marine traffic.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201102_5day.gif

Typhoon Ma-On continues to threaten Japan, currently a minimal category 2 typhoon... winds are expected to increase again before impact along the southern coast as a strong cat-2 or a cat-3 storm sometime late Tuesday local time.

brakos82
07-20-2011, 03:48 PM
As Tropical Storm Bret continues to pull to the northeast, about 300 miles off the U.S. coast, Tropical Storm Cindy has formed ahead of its path, over 600 miles northeast of Bermuda. Cindy will not be a threat to Bermuda, Canada, or the U.S., although the remnants of this storm will likely push into the British Isles or northern France in about a week.

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Dora, now a cat-3, continues to run parallel to the western Mexican coastline. No direct impact is expected from Dora, although high surf and rainfall will be felt along the coast. Dora could likely make a pass at Baja California sometime Friday or early Saturday, likely as a cat-1 or cat-2 hurricane.

Heath Shuler
07-27-2011, 08:52 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/atl1.gif

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

Heath Shuler
07-27-2011, 08:56 AM
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/files/2011/07/track_late100072711.png

sakebomb
07-27-2011, 12:25 PM
Well this is about right. We have a beach house rented for the upcoming weekend. FML.

TEXANS84
07-27-2011, 02:47 PM
FYI-
GFDL is usually the most accurate.

Heath Shuler
07-27-2011, 04:15 PM
It's DON

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0411W5_NL+gif/205313W5_NL_sm.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Marcus
07-27-2011, 04:55 PM
Well, it looks like folks will finally get to do some tubing on the Guadalupe, ayy??

I heard it's been drier than a popcorn fart up there lately.

Marcus
07-27-2011, 05:01 PM
Those forecast tracks always seem to veer more northward as it gets closer to the coast. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up in Louisiana.

TexanSam
07-27-2011, 05:10 PM
Well, it looks like folks will finally get to do some tubing on the Guadalupe, ayy??

I heard it's been drier than a popcorn fart up there lately.

The Guadalupe is pretty bad. Ankle deep in some place. Tubing's almost impossible right now on that river.

This storm is much needed everywhere in Texas.

Showtime100
07-27-2011, 07:14 PM
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/files/2011/07/track_late100072711.png

Luv Ya Blue!!!

Thorn
07-27-2011, 07:16 PM
Aw man, and I was thinking of driving to Lufkin this weekend. Oh well, we could use the rain.

brakos82
07-27-2011, 08:03 PM
The official forecast for Don agrees with what most of the models have been suggesting over the past 24 hours. Don will make its way toward the northwest over the next 48 hours before making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston. The statistical models tend to suggest a more southerly track toward Brownsville, and the dynamical models are forecasting anything from Corpus Christi to Galveston. They all tend to agree landfall will occur late on the 29th (Friday night). Whether or not Don will reach hurricane status is still in question. The Hurricane Center's initial forecast is that Don will remain a tropical storm until landfall. Today some models were intensifying Don to a strong tropical storm, but none crossed the hurricane threshold. Now that we have data from aircraft reconnaissance, the models will be able to get a better handle on potential intensity. The runs that occur later tonight and early tomorrow will have much less uncertainty than those from today.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

brakos82
07-28-2011, 12:00 AM
a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield northward to west of San Luis Pass

GuerillaBlack
07-28-2011, 06:59 AM
Never thought I'd be excited and want a tropical system to come to Texas. We need some rain.

Thorn
07-28-2011, 07:20 AM
Looking at the adjusted maps this morning, this thing seems like it won't come near Houston. I'm both happy and sad about that. We could have used the rain.

Khari
07-30-2011, 12:38 PM
Don = weenie

GlassHalfFull
07-30-2011, 01:32 PM
Don = weenie

^^^^^this.

brakos82
07-31-2011, 12:41 AM
A new system is beginning to form near the Lesser Antilles. This system is expected to become TD5 or Emily in the next day or so as it moves northwestward towards Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and the eastern Bahamas. Current models call for a northerly turn before moving into the central Bahamas, possibly grazing the U.S. coast, before turning northeast. As far as U.S. is concerned, northeast Florida to the Outer Banks could feel some effects of this system as it turns north and eventually northeast.

brakos82
08-02-2011, 12:18 AM
Tropical Storm Emily has formed over the Lesser Antilles. Emily is expected to move over Hispanola within the next 48 hours, then head over the Bahamas. Current forecast tracks have Emily making landfall on the east-central Florida coastline this weekend, possibly as a cat-1 hurricane. The storm's development greatly depends on interaction with land masses over the next few days, and may strengthen at times to hurricane status. After approaching Florida, Emily may follow the southeast U.S. coast northwards to the Outer Banks over the weekend and into early next week.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201105_5day.gif

Doppelganger
08-05-2011, 10:56 AM
Tropical Storm Emily has formed over the Lesser Antilles. Emily is expected to move over Hispanola within the next 48 hours, then head over the Bahamas. Current forecast tracks have Emily making landfall on the east-central Florida coastline this weekend, possibly as a cat-1 hurricane. The storm's development greatly depends on interaction with land masses over the next few days, and may strengthen at times to hurricane status. After approaching Florida, Emily may follow the southeast U.S. coast northwards to the Outer Banks over the weekend and into early next week.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201105_5day.gif

Emily was shredded over the Hatian mountains.

brakos82
08-12-2011, 04:36 PM
There are currently 3 areas of interest, along with a tropical depression, in the North Atlantic basin. Of these systems, only one has a decent chance of impacting the U.S. within the next couple weeks, and this system won't be moving into the eastern Caribbean for several days.

Showtime100
08-12-2011, 04:41 PM
There are currently 3 areas of interest, along with a tropical depression, in the North Atlantic basin. Of these systems, only one has a decent chance of impacting the U.S. within the next couple weeks, and this system won't be moving into the eastern Caribbean for several days.

Plant one right over Austin my man. :fans: If I see a newsman/woman tell me to drink plenty of liquids like I'm 10 one more time.............:wild:

Thorn
08-12-2011, 05:19 PM
Damn, you made me check. There are actually four advisories out right now for the Atlantic, none of which look worrisome for us. Of course that means jack squat when it comes to weather.

brakos82
08-15-2011, 03:40 PM
Tropical Storm Gert brushed against Bermuda earlier today, and now eyes are set on Invest 93, which is currently over the Lesser Antilles. While development is not expected within the next day or so, this system will enter a more favorable environment Wednesday.

Doppelganger
08-16-2011, 05:12 PM
Tropical Storm Gert brushed against Bermuda earlier today, and now eyes are set on Invest 93, which is currently over the Lesser Antilles. While development is not expected within the next day or so, this system will enter a more favorable environment Wednesday.

Is it headed to East coast, Midwest or Florida?

brakos82
08-17-2011, 03:00 AM
Is it headed to East coast, Midwest or Florida?

If you mean Gert, that's dead and gone in the northern Atlantic. The invest appears to be Yucatan-bound right now.

GlassHalfFull
08-17-2011, 07:08 AM
I never can remember rooting for a nice little hurricane to hit us before. :rain:

SheTexan
08-17-2011, 07:15 AM
I think we should all just move to Seattle with Brakos!! Rain, temps in the 70s ALL THE FRIGGIN SUMMER, beautiful area, etc!! BUT, no Texan football!! Guess I'll just have to sweat it out!!:smiliepalm:

brakos82
08-17-2011, 03:41 PM
I think we should all just move to Seattle with Brakos!! Rain, temps in the 70s ALL THE FRIGGIN SUMMER, beautiful area, etc!! BUT, no Texan football!! Guess I'll just have to sweat it out!!:smiliepalm:
:lol: Just wait till November.... then I get to brag to the midwest/northeast states. :)

brakos82
08-17-2011, 10:56 PM
Today marks 12th day in a row in 70s for Seattle, and 21st of last 23 days. Now that's a weather pattern to get stuck in! :tease:

XI CMURDER IX
08-19-2011, 01:49 AM
Well, some hurricane season huh? I think I might have felt a slight breeze today from the coastal area, maybe a storm is brewin'.

brakos82
08-19-2011, 10:17 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to batter Honduras with heavy rainfall... the storm's center is off-shore, and development to minor hurricane status is possible before moving over Central America tomorrow... Harvey will not be a threat to the U.S.

Invest 97 is currently expected to develop over the next day or so... model tracks point I-97 through the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and Cuba... before exiting into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. How much interaction I-97 has with these islands will determine its condition in the gulf... I-97 is expected to move in GOMEX around Wednesday.

Two areas of interest in the Cape Verdes... looking very disorganized... will not develop anytime soon.

brakos82
08-21-2011, 02:13 AM
Invest 97 has now become Tropical Storm Irene... tied for 2nd-earliest 9th named storm (tie 1936, 2005)... currently impacting the Antilles. Irene may become hurricane before interaction with Hispanola and Cuba... expected to be tropical storm moving over Florida keys Thursday, but forecast very uncertain... if Irene enters the Gulf or open Atlantic, she could restrengthen and become a hurricane.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_5day.gif

Doppelganger
08-21-2011, 03:04 PM
Invest 97 has now become Tropical Storm Irene... tied for 2nd-earliest 9th named storm (tie 1936, 2005)... currently impacting the Antilles. Irene may become hurricane before interaction with Hispanola and Cuba... expected to be tropical storm moving over Florida keys Thursday, but forecast very uncertain... if Irene enters the Gulf or open Atlantic, she could restrengthen and become a hurricane.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201109_5day.gif

Hopefully it will curve into the Atlantic and miss Florida.

Showtime100
08-21-2011, 04:31 PM
.....or come to Austin and pull up a chair.

brakos82
08-22-2011, 01:59 PM
What could be considered worst-case scenario for the southeast Atlantic coast has just happened.... the center of Hurricane Irene will miss Hispanola. Irene took a northerly trend to the north of the island overnight, and is now sitting about 75 miles north of the eastern tip of the island. Irene is currently forecasted to be a major hurricane as it skirts the Florida peninsula and heads towards South Carolina.

Thorn
08-22-2011, 02:56 PM
I feel sorry for the folks where this one hits. Anything over a cat 2 is really bad.

Doppelganger
08-22-2011, 06:46 PM
What could be considered worst-case scenario for the southeast Atlantic coast has just happened.... the center of Hurricane Irene will miss Hispanola. Irene took a northerly trend to the north of the island overnight, and is now sitting about 75 miles north of the eastern tip of the island. Irene is currently forecasted to be a major hurricane as it skirts the Florida peninsula and heads towards South Carolina.

So its looking like it misses South Florida and will instead hit the Carolinas?

brakos82
08-22-2011, 10:55 PM
So its looking like it misses South Florida and will instead hit the Carolinas?

Yep. The steering trough is moving into position earlier than originally expected... and with Irene's recent intensification (now a cat-2), we could see a path more towards North Carolina.

Koolaid Time
08-23-2011, 08:24 PM
If its anywhere close to a 3 at landfall its going to be bad. But at least you will see Stephanie Abrams in a tight t-shirt on some beach somewhere.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_xFCRxZw1Rcc/SRzFTMRt17I/AAAAAAAAACE/e78I-0MU0yk/s320/Abrams+then+1+version+2.0.jpg

Showtime100
08-23-2011, 08:28 PM
If its anywhere close to a 3 at landfall its going to be bad. But at least you will see Stephanie Abrams in a tight t-shirt on some beach somewhere.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_xFCRxZw1Rcc/SRzFTMRt17I/AAAAAAAAACE/e78I-0MU0yk/s320/Abrams+then+1+version+2.0.jpg

:photos: :tiphat:

Irene has big ones too.....

http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r65/ShowtimeN15580/Miscellaneous/hurricane-irene-625x416.jpg

brakos82
08-23-2011, 08:31 PM
:lol:

Thorn
08-24-2011, 07:17 AM
The projected path (which changes daily, of course) now has it hitting NY city as a cat 1. If that happens, we'll be hearing about this for years.

Koolaid Time
08-24-2011, 08:10 AM
The projected path (which changes daily, of course) now has it hitting NY city as a cat 1. If that happens, we'll be hearing about this for years.

At least the Hurricane will chase Obama off Martha's Vineyard a couple of days early.

Doppelganger
08-24-2011, 08:27 AM
Yep. The steering trough is moving into position earlier than originally expected... and with Irene's recent intensification (now a cat-2), we could see a path more towards North Carolina.

It looks like Florida is not gonna get hit, but I imagine Florida will get some rain though, right?

brakos82
08-25-2011, 02:00 AM
It looks like Florida is not gonna get hit, but I imagine Florida will get some rain though, right?

The East coast of Florida will likely get an outer rain band, and plenty of high surf as well... probably not much more than everyday thundershowers there.

Also, after dusting off the cobwebs I found Irene's ancestor from 1821. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane)

Scooter
08-25-2011, 07:05 AM
did this have anything to do with what hit houston last night? the rainfall was fairly weak here in katy, but it's been a while since i've seen such a lightning storm.

rmartin65
08-25-2011, 12:24 PM
****, I am flying into JFK on Saturday (not a problem), and have a flight to Columbus at 7:30 PM (could be a problem). What are the odds my flight gets cancelled?

brakos82
08-25-2011, 05:03 PM
****, I am flying into JFK on Saturday (not a problem), and have a flight to Columbus at 7:30 PM (could be a problem). What are the odds my flight gets cancelled?

It's likely you'll have problems leaving JFK... once Irene goes extra-tropical (which will happen not long after NC landfall) the storm will be accelerating northwards to NYC and could hamper travel well before the center of Irene's arrival... best bet is to check with your airline, many are offering waivers for flight change fees.

Quick check online at the JFK airport is that almost all Saturday flights will be delayed or cancelled.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904787404576530680544194282.html

Koolaid Time
08-25-2011, 08:44 PM
I hope the NYC has its subway pumps and tunnel seals fully functioning, otherwise that amount of water is going to cause a world of hurt.

TexanSam
08-26-2011, 03:00 PM
The places in the path of Hurricane Irene are supposed to get up to 10 inches of rain. Damnit, we need that! It needs to make a U-turn.

Thorn
08-26-2011, 07:53 PM
The places in the path of Hurricane Irene are supposed to get up to 10 inches of rain. Damnit, we need that! It needs to make a U-turn.

the sentiment is good, the realization isn't.

Showtime100
08-27-2011, 10:28 AM
http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r65/ShowtimeN15580/Pet%20Funny%20Misc/hurricane20preparedness.jpg

False Start
08-27-2011, 10:34 AM
Folks in NY are tripping the hell out, like theres a nuke on the way....rookies. :hankpalm:

jaayteetx
08-27-2011, 10:37 AM
Folks in NY are tripping the hell out, like theres a nuke on the way....rookies. :hankpalm:

Somebody should tell them to move places less likely to be impacted by a hurricane.

Showtime100
08-27-2011, 10:40 AM
Folks in NY are tripping the hell out, like theres a nuke on the way....rookies. :hankpalm:

I keep telling my wife that. She just rolls her eyes because she thinks my bitching about the east coast bias covers all aspects of life and not just sports. (She's from upstate NY)

Meanwhile Norfolk is in the teeth of it right now and the press seems to be oblivious. Speaking of, I assume the Navy ships are all out to sea to ride this out (?). I wonder about that aspect of the srorm.

jaayteetx
08-27-2011, 12:31 PM
Anyone watching the weather channel? It's hilarious, a reporter somewhere in Virginia, I believe Virginia beach, keeps telling everyone to stay inside and I think the more he does the more people keep coming out. Hell, people are even walking round right in front of him. Reporter looks like he is about to have a meltdown.

TEXANS84
08-27-2011, 03:39 PM
New Yorkers try to "Hurricane proof" their cars? (http://jalopnik.com/5835034/packing-tape-and-plastic-wrap-wont-save-new-yorkers-cars-from-hurricane-irene)

Dear lord, that would have been laughed off the streets here in Houston.

Showtime100
08-27-2011, 04:35 PM
Aside from the storm surge at high tide, which could be a real mess in NY, I still see a lot of fuss about NY and the "catastrophe" heading their way.

I went to wunderground and viewed many webcam shots from SC, to NC, to Maryland, all cams near the coastal part of the state, and I have yet to see so much as a leaf on the sidewalk. Well, Ryan Leaf, but he was drunk. :D

brakos82
08-27-2011, 04:52 PM
Somebody should tell them to move places less likely to be impacted by a hurricane.

:kubepalm:

We don't need New Yorkers in Seattle.

Koolaid Time
08-27-2011, 06:21 PM
Anyone watching the weather channel? It's hilarious, a reporter somewhere in Virginia, I believe Virginia beach, keeps telling everyone to stay inside and I think the more he does the more people keep coming out. Hell, people are even walking round right in front of him. Reporter looks like he is about to have a meltdown.


Today, you missed the guy who ran into the background of the TV shot and pulled down his shorts for a National TV audience.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5TQ5cFEqmM

Still, I think the guy in the Bear Costume during Ike is the funniest.

False Start
08-27-2011, 06:31 PM
Still, I think the guy in the Bear Costume during Ike is the funniest.

http://fastcache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/13242/2010/11/medium_bear5q36.png

:yes:

Heath Shuler
08-28-2011, 12:08 PM
Reporter Gives Update Covered In Sea Foam

http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/fox-reporter-gives-update-covered-in-sea-foam-20110827

The foam is often a toxic mix of pollution and cyanobacteria.


:vincepalm:

Heath Shuler
08-28-2011, 12:30 PM
http://twitpic.com/6b7gn1

A shark swimming the streets of Puerto Rico after #irene.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/381620989.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAJF3XCCKACR3QDMOA&Expires=1314553433&Signature=%2FYveAbSLsmQkYd61igq1VC5or1o%3D



I don’t know if this is legit or not but damn.

TexansLucky13
08-28-2011, 05:02 PM
We lost power for about four hours last night but that was the extent of it here in Maryland. Hardly even had Cat 1 winds.

brakos82
08-29-2011, 10:31 AM
As the East Coast begins cleaning up from Hurricane Irene, a new developing system forms out in the Cape Verdes. Tropical Depression 12 (expected to be Katia) is moving westward across the open Atlantic. TD12 will not be a threat to land for nearly a week, so any guesses on landfall locations would be just that, a guess.

Tropical Storm Jose passed near Bermuda over the weekend, little damage reported.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_5day.gif

The1ApplePie
08-29-2011, 11:20 AM
Folks in NY are tripping the hell out, like theres a nuke on the way....rookies. :hankpalm:

I thought that. Then I remember how we crap the bed whenever there is a half inch of snow:vincepalm:

My cousin was born and raised in Texas but lives in NYC now. She said it was funny as well watching the people freak out.

Koolaid Time
08-29-2011, 10:57 PM
Katia looks like its going to have the East Coast Curve like Irene.

Still too early to tell landfall, if any, in the US but I bet Insurance Companies will delay the payment of Irene claims until they see where its headed.

TexanSam
08-29-2011, 11:02 PM
As the East Coast begins cleaning up from Hurricane Irene, a new developing system forms out in the Cape Verdes. Tropical Depression 12 (expected to be Katia) is moving westward across the open Atlantic. TD12 will not be a threat to land for nearly a week, so any guesses on landfall locations would be just that, a guess.

Tropical Storm Jose passed near Bermuda over the weekend, little damage reported.

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_5day.gif

Please, please, please come to Texas! Not as a hurricane though...maybe as a giant tropical depression.

brakos82
08-30-2011, 01:00 PM
Tropical Storm Katia continues to track across the open Atlantic...

Models hinting at tropical development off of the Louisiana coast sometime after Friday... area to watch.

Heath Shuler
08-30-2011, 07:37 PM
Tropical Storm Katia continues to track across the open Atlantic...

Models hinting at tropical development off of the Louisiana coast sometime after Friday... area to watch.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201112_model.gif





Louisiana?

Thorn
08-31-2011, 07:48 AM
Louisiana?

Weather Channel map of the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/oceans/gulfofmexicosatellite_large.html?clip=undefined&region=undefined&collection=localwxforecast&presname=undefined

brakos82
08-31-2011, 05:11 PM
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model.gif

So, no telling where it goes (hopefully TX if it isn't too strong)... but something to watch nonetheless. NHC saying unlikely to develop in the next 2 days... but 2 1/2 - 4 days more likely.

sakebomb
08-31-2011, 07:02 PM
http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201193_model.gif

So, no telling where it goes (hopefully TX if it isn't too strong)... but something to watch nonetheless. NHC saying unlikely to develop in the next 2 days... but 2 1/2 - 4 days more likely.

What the hell is up with that orange line? It's heading our way and all of the sudden...........BAM! Let's go to Mexico. What a rain tease.

ccdude730
08-31-2011, 10:54 PM
Looks like one hell of a cluster****** to me.

brakos82
08-31-2011, 11:53 PM
Looks like one hell of a cluster****** to me.

http://www.ultimus.com/Portals/54405/images/pointing%20fingers.png

It's going that way.

Doppelganger
09-01-2011, 10:14 PM
http://www.ultimus.com/Portals/54405/images/pointing%20fingers.png

It's going that way.

Watch me be as accurate as the weather people:

Doppelganger: I predict there will be a 50% chance of rain.

~No rain occurs.~

Doppelganger: Looks like my 50% chance of no rain was right on the mark!

sakebomb
09-02-2011, 06:05 AM
Wonderful. The tropical depression looks like it is going to turn away from us. I'm not sure what my lawn did to piss off mother nature but it was bad since she doesn't want anything to do with it.

ccdude730
09-02-2011, 01:04 PM
The Katia models are not looking good for the east coast...

BetaV1
09-02-2011, 05:34 PM
Wonderful. The tropical depression looks like it is going to turn away from us. I'm not sure what my lawn did to piss off mother nature but it was bad since she doesn't want anything to do with it.

You can have the rain! This stupid storm is moving at a whopping 2 mph. It could float over us into Tuesday morning. I've had to reschedule two fantasy football drafts because of this thing. :vincepalm:

jaayteetx
09-02-2011, 05:39 PM
You can have the rain! This stupid storm is moving at a whopping 2 mph. It could float over us into Tuesday morning. I've had to reschedule two fantasy football drafts because of this thing. :vincepalm:

That sucks, nola does not need that, thats for sure. stay safe.

BetaV1
09-03-2011, 07:31 PM
So is Lee giving you guys in Texas a nice breeze? :)

GlassHalfFull
09-03-2011, 07:43 PM
So is Lee giving you guys in Texas a nice breeze? :)

A nice breeze and no rain. Sigh. I know y'all don't want to hear about how dry we are, but it would have been nice if y'all had shared a little.

The dry air and the breeze make the wildfire danger high.

ccdude730
09-03-2011, 08:24 PM
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201113_model.gif

NGFDL and GFDL would bring some much needed rain to the state. Unfortunately, I don't think those are the likely models for the system.

Texan_Bill
09-03-2011, 08:29 PM
As a survivor of many of storms, I say EFFF YOU Mother Nature!!! Bring it!!! :whip:

Thorn
09-03-2011, 08:37 PM
I'm in Lufkin today, and all it's done is rain. All day. Light rain, but still.

brakos82
09-04-2011, 12:36 PM
I'm in Ocean Shores today, and all it's done is shine. All day. 75, but still.

Thorn
09-04-2011, 12:41 PM
Echo.........echo echo echo

You know Brakos, the strange part of this is I've got relatives in Washington/Oregon area. In fact, I was born in Enterprise Oregon. I like mentioning to my Trekkie fans I was born on the Enterprise because it's not really lying, so to speak. LOL

brakos82
09-04-2011, 12:44 PM
Echo.........echo echo echo

You know Brakos, the strange part of this is I've got relatives in Washington/Oregon area. In fact, I was born in Enterprise Oregon. I like mentioning to my Trekkie fans I was born on the Enterprise because it's not really lying, so to speak. LOL

That explains everything. LOL

brakos82
09-07-2011, 07:23 PM
Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico... expected track for the next couple days will be very erratic, then taking a generally northwestward movement. Current forecast track pushes Nate into northeast Mexico in about 5 days... though deviation into southern Texas is possible.

Kaiser Toro
09-07-2011, 08:01 PM
Tropical Storm Nate has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico... expected track for the next couple days will be very erratic, then taking a generally northwestward movement. Current forecast track pushes Nate into northeast Mexico in about 5 days... though deviation into southern Texas is possible.

I feel like I was just Rickrolled. I have been in the know about the Freaky Friday stuff from the get go, however, I was in this thread earlier and read your post, but left thinking it was Thorn. Then I saw that brakos82 had the latest message in the thread and thought it was an update to Thorn's, but then found old timey war guy.

:wadepalm: TrapStar

brakos82
09-07-2011, 10:12 PM
I feel like I was just Rickrolled. I have been in the know about the Freaky Friday stuff from the get go, however, I was in this thread earlier and read your post, but left thinking it was Thorn. Then I saw that brakos82 had the latest message in the thread and thought it was an update to Thorn's, but then found old timey war guy.

:wadepalm: TrapStar
:lol:

Well you and TS Nate can kiss my ass!

brakos82
09-08-2011, 06:38 PM
Tropical Storm Nate continues to sit in the Bay of Campeche... has nearly become a hurricane. Forecast track is slightly more favorable for a south Texas landfall... though impacts won't be felt for several days. NHC forecasts bring Nate to a cat-2 by Sunday, holding strength through at least Tues with the center still well off-shore.

Tropical Storm Maria is struggling to organize itself... could become a tropical depression or remnant low within the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Katia... though it has a wide rain field, is staying off-shore from the Carolinas... No impacts expected from Katia, other than moderate surf along the eastern seaboard.

TexanSam
06-11-2012, 03:41 PM
Something to keep an eye on.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/06/some-models-predicting-a-gulf-hurricane-in-about-10-days-well-see/

Those who watch the tropics closely have been pinging me to ask about a possible hurricane striking the coast in about 10 to 12 days time.

That’s because one of the major global forecast models, the GFS, has been advertising this possibility for a couple of days. The latest forecast run, for example, brings a rather large system to the Texas coast on June 23.

I’m generally skeptical about such strong storms this early in the season, and regard models after seven to 10 days to have very little basis in reality. But what about this storm?

For some insight I turned to Chris Hebert, a tropics expert at ImpactWeather. Here are his thoughts:

I’d take that with a grain of salt. For the past week, the GFS, along with the European and Canadian models, has been hinting at possible tropical development in the western Caribbean and/or southern Gulf of Mexico between June 17 and 22.

The long-range GFS has also been predicting the movement of an MJO pulse into the East Pacific by next weekend. The linked map indicates increased lifting resulting in increased thunderstorm activity into the NW Caribbean by next weekend. The Wheeler diagram also indicates a moderate MJO in the longer range:

The bottom line is that all available model guidance has been at least hinting at possible development in the western Caribbean and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico between next Sunday through next Friday. Currently, thunderstorm activity in the region remains minimal. There are no disturbances to focus on.

However, the models actually did predict “something” developing either in the western Caribbean or off the East U.S. Coast about 10-14 days before Beryl developed. They obviously are picking up on something, so I think that the best course of action is to keep an eye on the western Caribbean over the next week to see if there is any increase in thunderstorm activity. If thunderstorms do blossom in the region, then there might be some chance of development.

Cjeremy635
06-11-2012, 03:52 PM
Something to keep an eye on.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/06/some-models-predicting-a-gulf-hurricane-in-about-10-days-well-see/

:popcorn:

Thorn
06-12-2012, 11:52 AM
Shouldn't we have a new thread for 2012, or change the date in this threads title?

In any case, I've already been squirrling away my hurricane supplys for this year. I've got one week of non-perishable food in the cabinet and 8 cases of water. I still need to check my flashlights and batteries, and the first aid kit. And the portable radio.

Thorn
06-21-2012, 05:52 PM
And it begins for 2012........

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201296_model.gif

Heath Shuler
06-21-2012, 08:51 PM
I guess we are not doing a new one for 2012


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_96.gif

Koolaid Time
06-22-2012, 06:13 AM
Weather Channel says New Orleans and West. But of course that's Stephanie Abrams.

Thorn
06-22-2012, 06:46 AM
Weather Channel says New Orleans and West. But of course that's Stephanie Abrams.

Weather Underground seems to agree with this prediction. So far at least.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201296_model_zoom.gif

Koolaid Time
06-22-2012, 07:53 AM
Weather Underground seems to agree with this prediction. So far at least.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201296_model_zoom.gif

They have it being picked up by the trough

Thorn
06-23-2012, 06:09 PM
The only Debbie I knew dated someone else.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201204.gif

Showtime100
06-23-2012, 06:42 PM
I hope Debby comes to Austin and sits on our............nevermind. :kitten:

I hope we get Debby in Austin for a week or so, we need the rain.

Heath Shuler
06-23-2012, 06:44 PM
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201204_model.gif

Hookem Horns
06-26-2012, 11:27 PM
I hope Debby comes to Austin and sits on our............nevermind. :kitten:

I hope we get Debby in Austin for a week or so, we need the rain.

It's been sitting on us for a few days now. I haven't seen this much rain in years. I will probably have to drain the pool tomorrow.

SheTexan
06-27-2012, 10:06 AM
It's been sitting on us for a few days now. I haven't seen this much rain in years. I will probably have to drain the pool tomorrow.

I thought about you when Debbie decided to pour her precious rain on Fla!:) Damn, Kevin!! You're a TEXAN friend! Can't you SHARE??! It's HOT here in dear old TEXAS!! :heat:

Hookem Horns
06-27-2012, 09:10 PM
I thought about you when Debbie decided to pour her precious rain on Fla!:) Damn, Kevin!! You're a TEXAN friend! Can't you SHARE??! It's HOT here in dear old TEXAS!! :heat:

I know .. my friends in Austin were talking about 109 degrees weather. Here the storm has passed and it is in the low 80's with a nice cool breeze. If I could send the rain back to Texas I would.

Thorn
07-30-2012, 01:41 PM
investigation 99L

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201299_model.gif

Heath Shuler
08-02-2012, 06:26 PM
Tropical Storm Ernesto


http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201205_model.gif

brakos82
08-02-2012, 08:51 PM
Excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Since the Hurricane Hunters found Ernesto's strongest winds to be near 14°N, I expect that Martinique, Dominica, St. Lucia, and Barbados will see the strongest winds on Friday during Ernesto's passage through the islands. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Friday, then fall to the low range through Tuesday, according to the 2 pm EDT run of the SHIPS model. Given Ernesto's poor organization, I give a 20% chance that the storm will degenerate into a tropical wave on Friday. If this happens, the storm will still be capable of bringing winds of 50 mph to the Windward Islands, though--and will still be capable of regenerating into a tropical storm in the Western Caribbean. Once Ernesto clears the Lesser Antilles, the reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more westerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Honduras on Monday night, is being discounted by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, it is possible that the storm's outer spiral bands will cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the HWRF clearly shows Ernesto reaching hurricane strength over the next five days. So, the official NHC forecast of a hurricane near Jamaica on Monday is an aggressive one. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Stay tuned.

Thorn
08-02-2012, 11:48 PM
By Sunday evening this could be a cat 1 hurricane that could enter the Gulf. If yall haven't stocked up on food, water, batteries and the like, you probably should do that during your grocery shopping this weekend. Just in case, you know.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201205.gif

Thorn
08-05-2012, 02:49 PM
Ernesto will hopefully die out over Mexico. There's a new one out in the Atlantic now, but I doubt anyone in Texas needs to be concerned about it.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201206.gif

Thorn
08-10-2012, 05:53 PM
Add a battery powered fan to your hurricane supplies. I just ordered one from Amazon. It's a ten inch fan that runs on D cells. You'll be glad you did if you actually need it.

Koolaid Time
08-19-2012, 09:50 AM
Add a battery powered fan to your hurricane supplies. I just ordered one from Amazon. It's a ten inch fan that runs on D cells. You'll be glad you did if you actually need it.

A fan connected to a couple of solar panels would be great to have as well.

Hookem Horns
08-23-2012, 09:54 AM
Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way. :(

GlassHalfFull
08-23-2012, 09:59 AM
Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way. :(

Republican National Convention - hurricane headed that way. :butterfly:

Hookem Horns
08-23-2012, 10:02 AM
Republican National Convention - hurricane headed that way. :butterfly:

That's in Tampa right? I am about 1 hour 1/2 from there. Actually I am going down to the Bucs game tomorrow night.

At least our house has concrete walls. I guess we will see just how "hurricane proof" our house is.

michaelm
08-23-2012, 10:18 AM
It looks more and more like Isaac will miss Florida, and enter the Gulf on a path towards the eastern part of Louisiana, or Mississippi.

Hookem Horns
08-23-2012, 10:21 AM
It looks more and more like Isaac will miss Florida, and enter the Gulf on a path towards the eastern part of Louisiana, or Mississippi.

Don't want it coming here but Katrina part II would be horrible for those folks.

Thorn
08-23-2012, 11:49 AM
Forgot what it was like to worry about hurricanes. My family moved from Houston in 1983 and we never lived in a hurricane zone after that.

Looks like this storm is heading right this way. :(

stock up on water, food and "stuff" now before the crowds hit.

And good luck. Hopefully it doesn't develop into much. I hate to see hurricanes happen to anyone.

Thorn
08-23-2012, 11:55 AM
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_5day.gif

Showtime100
08-23-2012, 12:13 PM
They're predicting a more westerly course than I saw yesterday. Either way Florida will get some serious weather out of it.

brakos82
08-26-2012, 11:46 AM
Tropical Storm Isaac battering the Florida Keys, Gulf Coast landfall uncertain.... 65mph/995mb/wnw-18

Isaac's inner rain bands are landing on the Keys this afternoon, bringing heavy rain and winds upwards of 50mph to the islands. Conditions will remain poor throughout the day and overnight tonight.

Isaac is expected to gain hurricane strength over the warm Florida waters, then move into the Gulf. From here, the forecast models split into two distinctive paths.
The first (and original) takes Isaac north into the Florida panhandle, likely as a cat-1 or weak cat-2 hurricane. There is an eddy of cooler water off Florida's west coast, which would keep Isaac from intensifying too much.
The second option takes Isaac on a more northwesterly track, with landfall in Louisiana as a cat-2 (possibly cat-3) hurricane.

Isaac is a very large storm, with tropical-storm force winds extending 205 miles from the center. In comparison, Katrina's TS-force winds at landfall extended 235 miles, and Ike's 275 miles. Wind speed changes of 5-10 mph will be significant in forecasting storm surge totals. Even if Isaac makes landfall as a minimal hurricane, storm surges will be high because of the storm's size.

TexanSam
08-26-2012, 09:50 PM
Newest Isaac models have it trending west.

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/dont-look-now-but-forecast-models-continue-to-trend-west-with-isaac/

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/files/2012/08/AL09_current2-600x450.png

Thorn
08-27-2012, 05:18 PM
So now it's predicted to be a cat 2 when it makes landfall. That's a nasty storm.

pirbroke
08-28-2012, 07:58 PM
Man I know it's only a cat 1 but is sure seems to be taking a worst case path for the offshore workers. Right between Fourchon ( the biggest offshore boat hub in the gulf) and Venice / new orleans.

GlassHalfFull
08-29-2012, 09:18 AM
I feel so sorry for those living in New Orleans and the path of Isaak. Each hurricane has its own way of doing damage, and the way Isaak is moving so slow, I worry about horrendous flooding. That thing is just sitting on the area.

That said, I would like to on a mini rant about the press coverage. I was checking the local news stations, and each has multiple reporters in the LA covering the storm. I wonder how many reporters in total are there all trying to get the perfect shot. It is absolutely ridiculous. They are showing them driving around talking about how dangerous it is to be out and about. The thing that really bothers me is how much extra work it causes the local authorities, who have much better things to be doing. Why can't they pool coverage and only have a few people in total in the area?

Gah, I can't even express how disgusted I am with the way our tv news is handled.

BetaV1
08-29-2012, 11:18 AM
In Metairie right now just outside New Orleans. I'm amazed I still have power. The wind here is insane. The rain is so-so. A lot of the parishes about 45 miles to the southwest of the city are taking the full force. The storm is indeed moving insanely slow and has already stalled twice while still maintaining hurricane status. When it made landful, we had reported winds of 100 and the pressure was 968 which is category 2 by the books. I'll be shocked of the National Hurricane Center does not reclassify this as a category 2 storm, because it sure doesn't feel like a cat 1.

Thorn
08-29-2012, 11:38 AM
Stay safe BetaV1.

BetaV1
08-29-2012, 07:47 PM
So far, doing well over here. I'm one of the very few lucky people in the New Orleans metro area to still have power. The storm has stalled for a third time in the last 24 hours now near Baton Rouge. Nearly all of Plaquemines Parish is under 6 feet of water, some parts of Plaq are under 12 feet. Plaq Parish president Billy Nungesser and Grand Isle Mayor David Camardelle are saying this wasn't a category 1 storm, and I certainly believe them. Grand Isle is reportedly under 5 feet of water right now.

Make note that these flooded areas are outside of the new levee system. The city itself fared well with the water; however, we did not admittedly get the full amount of rain that these other parishes are dealing with and the pumps here had reportedly stalled for a few hours during the previous night and had to be operated manually. That is extremely concerning because had this been a category 3 storm, those same workers on the pumps would've been evacuated from their stations and dare I say we would've had quite a bit flooding within the city.

Goes to show that mother nature can still take back what she wants when she wants.

GlassHalfFull
08-29-2012, 07:52 PM
So far, doing well over here. I'm one of the very few lucky people in the New Orleans metro area to still have power. The storm has stalled for a third time in the last 24 hours now near Baton Rouge. Nearly all of Plaquemines Parish is under 6 feet of water, some parts of Plaq are under 12 feet. Plaq Parish president Billy Nungesser and Grand Isle Mayor David Camardelle are saying this wasn't a category 1 storm, and I certainly believe them.

Glad to hear you are doing ok. Houston had a tropical storm, Allison, that turned into a major flood mess. Damn thing actually turned around and came back to Houston. The storm categories are purely a measure of wind speed, they don't in any way account for amount of rainfall, which can be the most damaging part of the storm. It is unfortunate, and a better rating system needs to be considered. I think lots of people said, "it is just a cat 1, we have lived thru worse.", not knowing the amount of water that was going to fall outta the sky. Houston definitely learned the lesson the hard way with Allison.

BetaV1
08-29-2012, 08:10 PM
Glad to hear you are doing ok. Houston had a tropical storm, Allison, that turned into a major flood mess. Damn thing actually turned around and came back to Houston. The storm categories are purely a measure of wind speed, they don't in any way account for amount of rainfall, which can be the most damaging part of the storm. It is unfortunate, and a better rating system needs to be considered. I think lots of people said, "it is just a cat 1, we have lived thru worse.", not knowing the amount of water that was going to fall outta the sky. Houston definitely learned the lesson the hard way with Allison.

Pretty much that's why people stayed. As you mentioned, wind speed is used as the primary measuring stick for hurricane strength, followed by pressure, and we had some buoys off the coast getting windspeeds of 95+ MPH while all the meteorologists here were saying that based on pressure at landfall (968), this storm should've been a very strong category 2 storm. Seems like an easy classification to me. I think if they would've called it a category 2, more people would've obviously left. But down here we get close to tropical storm conditions on rainy days throughout most of the summer anyways, so a category 1 storm in most people's minds isn't much. Heck, I stayed.

What's tricky is that Plaq did NOT flood anywhere near this bad for Katrina, which was a much more powerful storm. People knew Isaac would being more rain there since the track had them on the bad side of the storm while Katrina had most of Plaq on the good side, but you cannot predict something like a storm stalling twice for hours over one area.

Speedy
08-30-2012, 11:17 AM
I'm not real sure but I think they take an average reading of wind speed throughout the eyewall to come up with it's posted wind speed. For example, in the stronger side of the storm, say the northeast quadrant, the winds might be at 100 mph, easily cat. 2 strength, but in the weaker part of the strom, like the southwest quadrant, winds are only 70 mph. They then post it as an 85 mph cat. 1 storm. Rough example, but it works something like that because the winds are not the same throughout the eyewall.

That also doesn't take into account wind gusts. You can have a 90 mph sustained wind (cat.1), and have wind gusts up to 110 mph (cat.2) and it will still be a cat. 1 blow.

Yeah, a better rating system would be helpful, but you still need to know that hurricanes are dangerous no matter the classification. Slow moving hurricanes especially. As mentioned, Houston was devastated by a Tropical Storm about a decade ago that just sat on top of us for a couple of days.

Glad to hear you're safe, Beta!!!

Vinny
08-31-2012, 10:34 PM
Drew Brees just posted this...unreal.

https://p.twimg.com/A1rOVtkCUAMqgto.jpg:largehttps://twitter.com/drewbrees/status/241732402416865281/photo/1/large

badboy
08-31-2012, 11:02 PM
Drew Brees just posted this...unreal.

https://p.twimg.com/A1rOVtkCUAMqgto.jpg:largehttps://twitter.com/drewbrees/status/241732402416865281/photo/1/largehe is just hoping for another Super Bowl

Thorn
09-07-2012, 01:55 PM
The fine art of storm forecasting. LOL.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201290_model.gif

Showtime100
09-07-2012, 02:23 PM
I thought this was pretty amazing....

Astronomy Pic Of The Day (9/4) (http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120904.html)

http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r65/ShowtimeN15580/Miscellaneous/paths.jpg

Explanation: Should you be worried about hurricanes? To find out, it is useful to know where hurricanes have gone in the past. The above Earth map shows the path of every hurricane reported since 1851, Although striking, a growing incompleteness exists in the data the further one looks back in time. The above map graphically indicates that hurricanes -- sometimes called cyclones or typhoons depending on where they form -- usually occur over water, which makes sense since evaporating warm water gives them energy. The map also shows that hurricanes never cross -- or even occur very near -- the Earth's equator, since the Coriolis effect goes to zero there, and hurricanes need the Coriolis force to circulate. The Coriolis force also causes hurricane paths to arc away from the equator. Although incompleteness fogs long term trends and the prevalence of hurricanes remains a topic of research, evidence is accumulating that hurricanes are, on the average, more common and more powerful in the North Atlantic Ocean over the past 20 years.

Go to the site and click the pic for further analysis. :)

NitroGSXR
10-29-2012, 11:06 AM
Hurricane Sandy has overtaken the HMS Bounty. 14 rescued and two missing as of right now.

http://localtvwdaf.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/hms-bounty.jpg?w=400

http://fox4kc.com/2012/10/29/crew-abandons-hms-bounty-ship-awaits-rescue-while-sandy-rages-around-them/

Playoffs
10-29-2012, 03:01 PM
Wind -- Click top image for larger
http://www.crownweather.com/tropgraphics/al18windzoom1.gif (http://www.crownweather.com/tropgraphics/al18windzoom1.gif)
Storm surge
http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201218_surge.gif
Tracking models
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201218_model_zoom.gif

pbat488
10-29-2012, 08:54 PM
saw this and thought it was funny, though the storm is no laughing matter.

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/426279_10151280084420791_389340588_n.jpg

we've had rain for the past two days straight in pittsburgh and the winds have picked up drastically over the past couple of hours from ~20mph to gusts up to around ~40mph. i'm most worried about the possibility of snow/icing conditions, will make the drive to and from work even worse than it was today.

Hookem Horns
10-29-2012, 09:59 PM
I have a lot of friends from Delaware up to New York since I used to live up there. Seeing some crazy stuff on Facebook. This one takes the cake ...

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/65305_10151486495823242_1181267384_n.jpg

brakos82
10-29-2012, 10:51 PM
Manhattan just went dark....


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A6bCa1kCEAAJn6L.jpg

gtexan02
10-29-2012, 10:54 PM
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/78327_3813313896610_731559716_o.jpg
Please be real

gtexan02
10-29-2012, 10:57 PM
Explosion in NYC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZAqYZ433TeQ

I lived in Houston for 18 years. I feel like I'm getting more hurricanes in the northeast...

PapaL
10-29-2012, 11:15 PM
Papa L checking in from DC. High winds, lots of rain, some flooding. Our spirits are high and my son and I are safe. Can't really complain.

Big shout out to my brother from another mother Brakos82 for checking in on us. Much obliged sir.

Hagar
10-29-2012, 11:25 PM
Nice little powerline meltdown


Hurricane Sandy causes power lines fire in Queens, NYC (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a63_1351561436)

SheTexan
10-30-2012, 11:46 AM
This storm certainly has not been something to laugh about, but, I have to admit I've gotten a lot of teasing about my "namesake!" My grandson told me to "lighten up" cause I was being to "mean!" I told him not to mess with SANDY'S, esp when one of them was his MawMaw!

I have many friends that have been touched by this storm, and thankfully, ALL of them are safe and sound, as of now. We've had some fun gabbing about the name and such, but, they all know I've been concerned, and they have all been in my thoughts and prayers.

I have a feeling SANDY will never be a named storm again.

brakos82
10-30-2012, 02:13 PM
http://i.imgur.com/3hFH4.jpg

Is it just me.... or is Sandy part of the Texans' gameplan? :thinking:

Playoffs
10-30-2012, 06:34 PM
http://i.imgur.com/3hFH4.jpg
That is one big a$$ storm!

corytx8
10-30-2012, 07:00 PM
Checking in from Virginia Beach, we are doiing fine here.

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