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View Full Version : Could we make the playoffs with a top 16 defense?


m5kwatts
05-04-2011, 01:02 AM
That would make us average. And I think that would be a lot to ask from a defense as bad as last year's making the 3-4 transition playing as tough a schedule as the Texans do in 2011. The 3-4 is a difficult conversion that usually takes more than a year, but we've seen recent examples like Green Bay and Denver recently (for 1 year with Nolan atleast) who have been pretty good right away. The Broncos were 7th in total defense, the Packers 2nd. All I'm asking for is top 16. Would this get us to the playoffs? I think so.

In 2009, we were top 17 in points and top 13 in yards, but that was an easier schedule and an injury-free defense.

Last year, we were 29th in points allowed and 30th in yards. But it also was a very tough schedule, toughest in the league or top 5 atleast if I remember correctly.

So far we've subtracted Frank Bush and staff, added Wade Phillips and staff, and added the draft class. Free agency is yet to come.

Allstar
05-04-2011, 02:38 AM
I voted yes. If our defense could have just made a couple (or even just one in most cases) more stops, we could have won these games: San Diego, @ Jacksonville, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Baltimore, @ Tennessee and Denver.

That's 7 more wins we could have gotten with our defense being a little better.

Corrosion
05-04-2011, 02:42 AM
Hell they probably made the playoffs this past season with a defense in the top 20.

TexanSam
05-04-2011, 03:59 AM
Yes. Hell, aside from Kris Brown missing all those kicks in 2009, one can argue we should have been in the playoffs that year.

TheMatrix31
05-04-2011, 04:36 AM
Easily.

DocBar
05-04-2011, 06:39 AM
Yep. Get a top 16 D and we might even win a playoff game or four. :texanbill:

Lucky
05-04-2011, 07:18 AM
I voted yes. If our defense could have just made a couple (or even just one in most cases) more stops, we could have won these games: San Diego, @ Jacksonville, NY Jets, Philadelphia, Baltimore, @ Tennessee and Denver.

That's 7 more wins we could have gotten with our defense being a little better.
The Texans were never in that game in Tennessee. And if a couple of plays weren't made in the Washington or Kansas City games, the Texans record could have been even worse. Playing the coulda-woulda-shoulda game is misleading. The Texans didn't look remotely like a playoff team in 2010.

The Texans defense could finish in the top 16, but have a different wheel fall off in 2011. This team doesn't know how to win. And in virtually every game they play, the head coach is over matched. Will that ever change? When it does, I'll vote "yes".

gafftop
05-04-2011, 07:32 AM
The Texans were never in that game in Tennessee. And if a couple of plays weren't made in the Washington or Kansas City games, the Texans record could have been even worse. Playing the coulda-woulda-shoulda game is misleading. The Texans didn't look remotely like a playoff team in 2010.

The Texans defense could finish in the top 16, but have a different wheel fall off in 2011. This team doesn't know how to win. And in virtually every game they play, the head coach is over matched. Will that ever change? When it does, I'll vote "yes".

Could not have said it any better. Just look at 2009 with Kubiak's pet Chris Brown. I think everybody but him could see that Chris Brown was done.

steelbtexan
05-04-2011, 09:38 AM
Yes they could, but they had a top 16 defense in 2009 and didn't make the playoffs. So a top 16 defense assures nothing. Let Schaub or AJ go down and a top 16 defense will still result in 6-10 or worse with Dan O at QB.

b0ng
05-04-2011, 09:44 AM
That would make us average. And I think that would be a lot to ask from a defense as bad as last year's making the 3-4 transition playing as tough a schedule as the Texans do in 2011. The 3-4 is a difficult conversion that usually takes more than a year, but we've seen recent examples like Green Bay and Denver recently (for 1 year with Nolan atleast) who have been pretty good right away. The Broncos were 7th in total defense, the Packers 2nd. All I'm asking for is top 16. Would this get us to the playoffs? I think so.

Miami and Denver both bolstered their pathetic defenses changing to the 3-4 in their respective terrible years. I'm pretty sure that Denver went from Bob Slowik to Mike Nolan and that year they weren't that bad on defense. Unfortunately Josh McDaniels ran Nolan off and the Broncos went right back to being terrible in a very short amount of time. I'm pretty sure the year after Miami went 1-15 they hired Parcells in some prominent role with the team, switched to the 3-4 and went to the damn playoffs the next year. Not too sure who the DC was off the top of my head. GB is another example of a team that got much better defensively with the switch. I think the real obstacle/hurdle for a team switching alignments is who is in charge of the defense. Proven guys can seem to get the job done over one offseason. The truncated offseason we are experiencing as a league hurts teams like us the most.

In 2009, we were top 17 in points and top 13 in yards, but that was an easier schedule and an injury-free defense.

Last year, we were 29th in points allowed and 30th in yards. But it also was a very tough schedule, toughest in the league or top 5 atleast if I remember correctly.

So far we've subtracted Frank Bush and staff, added Wade Phillips and staff, and added the draft class. Free agency is yet to come.

We still didn't get all that many turnovers (Which has been a problem that has plagued our defense for more than just a season) in 2009. Even if our defense is average or below, if we end up top 10 in our turnover ratio we will go to the playoffs. Mediocre defenses look outstanding when they cause a large amount of turnovers, especially if the offense is decent. It's probably the one thing that this coaching staff has never had while they have been apart of the Texans. The defense has never been all that good at pulling down INT's or forcing fumbles. Even in 2009, which was probably one of the best defensive years we've had as a club, we were 20th in INT's and 22nd in FF's.

I didn't vote in the poll because the "average" defense can mean many different things. I don't think the Pats defense last year was that much better than ours, but they grab a lot of picks and they made plays when they had to. Force fumbles, sack the QB and pull down interceptions. If we can do just 2 out of those 3 doesn't really matter what our ranking by yardage or ppg is, we'll be in the playoffs.

EDIT: The Miami DC in 2008 was Dom Capers. lawl.

Allstar
05-04-2011, 09:50 AM
The Texans were never in that game in Tennessee. And if a couple of plays weren't made in the Washington or Kansas City games, the Texans record could have been even worse. Playing the coulda-woulda-shoulda game is misleading. The Texans didn't look remotely like a playoff team in 2010.

The Texans defense could finish in the top 16, but have a different wheel fall off in 2011. This team doesn't know how to win. And in virtually every game they play, the head coach is over matched. Will that ever change? When it does, I'll vote "yes".

The question was IF we have a better defense, will we make the playoffs, so I'm going along the lines with IF our defense played better. IF our defense played better, we wouldn't have dug ourselves into such deep holes in the Washington and KC games.

You're right about the titans game though. Don't know why I remembered it differently.

HoustonFrog
05-04-2011, 09:54 AM
I'll repeat what I said a week or so ago. Changing one factor doesn't just change everything. Every game has many factors. Last season the offense was also starting slow and the team as a whole found themselves in a record number of double digit holes. These weren't 24-14 at half ones either..more like 17-3, where the team as a whole...offense and defense.. was failing. Even if the Defense had been a little better and it was 17-7 or 17-10, there is no guarantee the opposing defense would have acted the same or done things the same where the offense would have gone hurry up. Each game takes on a life of their own and as we have seen for the last 2 seasons, the Texans come out unprepared and found ways to lose games. So I can't honestly answer yes above without seeing a change in the way the team plays for 4 quarters.

disaacks3
05-04-2011, 10:10 AM
I'll repeat what I said a week or so ago. Changing one factor doesn't just change everything. Every game has many factors. Last season the offense was also starting slow and the team as a whole found themselves in a record number of double digit holes. These weren't 24-14 at half ones either..more like 17-3, where the team as a whole...offense and defense.. was failing. Even if the Defense had been a little better and it was 17-7 or 17-10, there is no guarantee the opposing defense would have acted the same or done things the same where the offense would have gone hurry up. Each game takes on a life of their own and as we have seen for the last 2 seasons, the Texans come out unprepared and found ways to lose games. So I can't honestly answer yes above without seeing a change in the way the team plays for 4 quarters. I agree that it wouldn't make this team 14-2 or anything like that, but it would have changed at LEAST two games and improved the team to 8-8. (very likely 9-7)

badboy
05-04-2011, 10:24 AM
I'm saying yes even though it may be difficult for Foster to lead the league again. We have to get a better backup for Schaub. A better defense has to help the offense physically as well as emotionally.

Tailgate
05-04-2011, 10:38 AM
Probably. But what is most important is the turnover differential imo.

In 2009 we were "decent" in takeaways, but we were terrible in giving the ball away. A lot of this stemmed from no running game imo.

Last year we were very strong in not giving the ball away, but we were absolutely terrible in takeaways. We have to be above average in both areas to have a chance to make the playoffs. These stars have not aligned yet.

TEXANRED
05-04-2011, 02:03 PM
Yep. Get a top 16 D and we might even win a playoff game or four. :texanbill:

Settle down now.

Dutchrudder
05-04-2011, 02:12 PM
Yes they could, but they had a top 16 defense in 2009 and didn't make the playoffs. So a top 16 defense assures nothing. Let Schaub or AJ go down and a top 16 defense will still result in 6-10 or worse with Dan O at QB.

Didn't you hear? Kubiak drafted the next Tom Brady with a 5th round pick! TJ Yates = :trophy:

mussop
05-04-2011, 02:32 PM
Didnt we have a middle of the pack defense a couple of years ago? Didn't help then.

DocBar
05-04-2011, 04:18 PM
Didnt we have a middle of the pack defense a couple of years ago? Didn't help then. We also had a middle/lower of the pack offense as far as scoring and turnovers went. Lots of details go into this whole winning thing. As soon as you fix one area, another one breaks down. Reminds me of my 1st two wives and my truck.

mussop
05-04-2011, 06:22 PM
We also had a middle/lower of the pack offense as far as scoring and turnovers went. Lots of details go into this whole winning thing. As soon as you fix one area, another one breaks down. Reminds me of my 1st two wives and my truck.

Ouch, at least when your truck is done it doesn't take half you're stuff with it. Or in my case EVERYTHING!!! Beyatch even took the ice trays out of the freezer.

At least we should have some decent depth on offense this year. On d we are pretty much screwed if anyone Goes down.

Norg
05-04-2011, 07:27 PM
Can we make the playoffs with the Number 1 offensive .......

the chargers had it last yeah BUT !!!! they had poor special teams prob worse then ours

Arozina and Greenbay had pretty explosive offensives has well

DocBar
05-05-2011, 03:38 AM
Can we make the playoffs with the Number 1 offensive .......

the chargers had it last yeah BUT !!!! they had poor special teams prob worse then ours

Arozina and Greenbay had pretty explosive offensives has wellArizona had an explosive offense last year? Only when they were on the toilet. Green Bay won the SB......

Double Barrel
05-05-2011, 11:06 AM
The Texans were never in that game in Tennessee. And if a couple of plays weren't made in the Washington or Kansas City games, the Texans record could have been even worse. Playing the coulda-woulda-shoulda game is misleading. The Texans didn't look remotely like a playoff team in 2010.

The Texans defense could finish in the top 16, but have a different wheel fall off in 2011. This team doesn't know how to win. And in virtually every game they play, the head coach is over matched. Will that ever change? When it does, I'll vote "yes".

I agree. Even with solid offensive and defensive units, I'm still not believing that Kubiak is a good head coach with regards to making decisions during the heat of the moment in games.

I voted "yes" to the poll only because it says "could". Sure they could make the playoffs. If it was "will" they make the playoffs, I'd vote either unsure or no.

Yankee_In_TX
05-05-2011, 01:03 PM
Ok, suprisingly hard to find points scored and points allowed by year (I didn't look that hard).

To me, the ONLY stats that matter are points scored and points allowed. As Madden would say 'the team that scores more points is going to win this one!'

Picking apart every little stat will make your head spin and cause arguments.

I think we were 3rd last year in point scored and 29th in points allowed? I assume if we were 16th in points allowed, then our average point scored would be greater than our average points allowed, meaning we win more games.

I really wish I could find those stats.

For some teams these stats are off because of a few oddball games. But other than Rusty Smith those stats are pretty telling for us, and that's ignoring the lack of offense against Dallas and NYG.

infantrycak
05-05-2011, 01:09 PM
Ok, suprisingly hard to find points scored and points allowed by year (I didn't look that hard).

To me, the ONLY stats that matter are points scored and points allowed. As Madden would say 'the team that scores more points is going to win this one!'

Picking apart every little stat will make your head spin and cause arguments.

I think we were 3rd last year in point scored and 29th in points allowed? I assume if we were 16th in points allowed, then our average point scored would be greater than our average points allowed, meaning we win more games.

I really wish I could find those stats..

Offense points scored 2010 - 24.4 ppg
16th Defense points allowed 2010 - 21.6 ppg

Yankee_In_TX
05-05-2011, 01:17 PM
Offense points scored 2010 - 24.4 ppg
16th Defense points allowed 2010 - 21.6 ppg

TY (rep if it'll let me).

Then I assume barring an odd year with lopsided scores that yes, if the offense holds steady and the defense plays average we make the playoffs.

Lucky
05-06-2011, 01:48 AM
Offense points scored 2010 - 24.4 ppg
16th Defense points allowed 2010 - 21.6 ppg
Texans Offense points scored 2009 - 24.2 ppg
Texans Defense (17th) points allowed 2009 - 20.8 ppg

And of course, no playoffs. There's something to be said about finding a way to win or finding a way to lose. We know what the Texans are better at.

Yankee_In_TX
05-06-2011, 11:28 AM
Texans Offense points scored 2009 - 24.2 ppg
Texans Defense (17th) points allowed 2009 - 20.8 ppg

And of course, no playoffs. There's something to be said about finding a way to win or finding a way to lose. We know what the Texans are better at.

That was the year of the half-back pass and inability to get 1 yard. It was a very sad year and touche' on your counterpoint to my point.

Norg
05-06-2011, 08:33 PM
Arizona had an explosive offense last year? Only when they were on the toilet. Green Bay won the SB......

i meant when they had Kurt warner

Rey
05-06-2011, 08:41 PM
Texans Offense points scored 2009 - 24.2 ppg
Texans Defense (17th) points allowed 2009 - 20.8 ppg

And of course, no playoffs. There's something to be said about finding a way to win or finding a way to lose. We know what the Texans are better at.


This.

I think we could make the play-offs...

But regardless, Kubiaks offenses have still not preformed at an elite level. Sure they have put up numbers, but they still have lacked in the area of performing when it matters most. Not sure how anyone can dispute that.

TejasTom
05-07-2011, 08:55 AM
I think think the defense being historically bad has overshadowed how bad special teams were...

Punt Distance 26th
Punt Coverage 10th

Kick Distance 9th
Kick Coverage 26th

Kick Return 27th
Punt Return 29th

Field postion was terrible all year for both sides of the ball. Improving this will help our defense and offense.

b0ng
05-07-2011, 09:53 AM
Ok, suprisingly hard to find points scored and points allowed by year (I didn't look that hard).

To me, the ONLY stats that matter are points scored and points allowed. As Madden would say 'the team that scores more points is going to win this one!'

Picking apart every little stat will make your head spin and cause arguments.

I think we were 3rd last year in point scored and 29th in points allowed? I assume if we were 16th in points allowed, then our average point scored would be greater than our average points allowed, meaning we win more games.

I really wish I could find those stats.

For some teams these stats are off because of a few oddball games. But other than Rusty Smith those stats are pretty telling for us, and that's ignoring the lack of offense against Dallas and NYG.

PPG isn't the best stat to measure how good a specific offense or defense is because special teams scores and defensive scores would go towards the points scored per game (Which people would chalk up to the offense being good), as well as the defense getting charged with allowing fumble/pick 6's returned for TD's when we are on offense as well as if our special teams allowed a return TD.

Basically saying an offense or defense is this good because they get X yards a game or X points a game is flawed since we all know that many different things go into a good offense or defense. Think about this, how many short fields did our offense see last year as opposed to 2009? I know our ST unit in 2009 was not the dismal failure it was in 2010 (As long as you forget how terrible Kris Brown was) in terms of field position. It's a lot harder to find a team with a huge positive ratio in the turnover department that didn't go to the playoffs than it is to find a team with a positive ratio for points scored per game : points allowed per game.