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View Full Version : Take a stab at this years jaw dropping 1st round reach, with a later round grade


Shaft75
04-06-2011, 11:19 PM
Who will be this years Tyson Alualu? I'm guessing with free agency after the draft that there may be more than one, with more teams selecting for need.

I'm thinking possibly Stephen Paea/Phil Taylor.

Don't get me wrong, they're good prospects, but not at the head of the class. Bonus points if you pick the team that reaches!

kiwitexansfan
04-07-2011, 08:04 AM
Well if your talking about teams reaching you must be talking about the Texans.

And they will reach for Justin Houston OLB.

Ole Miss Texan
04-07-2011, 09:40 AM
I'm going to go with one of the Quarterbacks and pick Jake Locker. Seattle could select him at 25 or a team in the 2nd round may trade up for him (or their QB they covet).

Blake
04-07-2011, 10:43 AM
Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State to Jags @ 16.

Hottoddie
04-07-2011, 11:19 AM
Ryan Mallett & I'll go out on a limb & say he'll go in the top 15. He's an incredible talent, but does have issues that will have to be dealt with. With all the teams needing QB's, someone will blink.

Shaft75
04-07-2011, 12:13 PM
I don't think it's going to be a qb. I'm thinking a DT or OLB.

Dutchrudder
04-07-2011, 01:11 PM
Andy Dalton to the Colts @ 22

Anyone who takes Cam Newton in the 1st...

BigBull17
04-07-2011, 01:36 PM
Ryan Mallett & I'll go out on a limb & say he'll go in the top 15. He's an incredible talent, but does have issues that will have to be dealt with. With all the teams needing QB's, someone will blink.

I think Mallet could be first QB taken. He has baggage, but is tall, with a big arm.

HOU-TEX
04-07-2011, 01:38 PM
Andy Dalton to the Colts @ 22

Anyone who takes Cam Newton in the 1st...

Or any other QB

steelbtexan
04-08-2011, 03:42 PM
I'm going to go with one of the Quarterbacks and pick Jake Locker. Seattle could select him at 25 or a team in the 2nd round may trade up for him (or their QB they covet).

Agreed

steelbtexan
04-08-2011, 03:47 PM
Well if your talking about teams reaching you must be talking about the Texans.

And they will reach for Justin Houston OLB.

I would be happy if the Texans took Houston.

It's not going to happen though. I read that Houston was suspended for 2 games sometime during his college career for drug use. That's a no-no for BoB. Unless he was using PED's/HGC.

LOL

beerlover
04-09-2011, 05:20 PM
Well if your talking about teams reaching you must be talking about the Texans.

And they will reach for Justin Houston OLB.

Agree, but think it's Brooks Reed instead of Houston to Houston.

kiwitexansfan
04-09-2011, 06:58 PM
Agree, but think it's Brooks Reed instead of Houston to Houston.

That would be a bigger reach by grade, but maybe a better decision by outcome.

beerlover
04-09-2011, 08:01 PM
That would be a bigger reach by grade, but maybe a better decision by outcome.

Just about any 3-4 team who needs an OLB will covet him come draft day, the comparisons to Clay Matthews are striking & remember Clay wasn't supposed to be selected in the first rd. until last weeks before the 09 draft.

Lucky
04-09-2011, 08:24 PM
...the comparisons to Clay Matthews are striking...
What are the comparisons to Clay Matthews?

beerlover
04-09-2011, 09:22 PM
What are the comparisons to Clay Matthews?

Brooks Reed........................................Clay Matthews
6-3................................................. ..6-3
263............................................... ....245 now 255
4.65 forty...........................................4. 62 forty
2.63 20..............................................2. 68 20
1.54 10..............................................1. 49 10 this is key for position
Bench 225 30 reps................................Bench 225 23 reps
Tackles last season 47...........................Tackles last season 56
Sacks last season 6.5............................Sacks last season 4.5
TFL's 10..............................................TF L's 9
First Team All Pac 10.............................First Team All Academic Pac 10
Appearence-
http://i55.tinypic.com/2wrma1w.png

SAMURAITEXAN
04-09-2011, 11:22 PM
Reed or Houston, it will be some what a jaw dropping for sure at #11. In this case, hope we trade down so that we won't have go see doctor to fix our jaws.

Go Texans!!!

Lucky
04-10-2011, 12:39 AM
Brooks Reed........................................Clay Matthews

Appearence-

That's kinda where I thought you were going with that. I think the one similarity you missed is that both players came into college undersized and made themselves into prospects through work in the weight room. You can also make a case that Reed was more productive in college than Matthews.

It's possible that Reed could break into the late 1st round to a 3-4 team like the Pats or Jets. But not at #11. There are too many pass rushers with better credentials that will be available at the Texans spot (Smith, Kerrigan, Houston, possibly Quinn). And while you can make the comparisons to Matthews, Reed also resembles Bobby Carpenter (whom Wade coached in Dallas). I still think that Reed will likely be around when the Texans pick at #42.

If the Texans can't find a corner worthy of their 2nd round pick, why not go OLB with the 1st two picks? With the questions surrounding Barwin's return, it's not out of the question. Smith and Reed would make a pretty decent combo at OLB.

beerlover
04-10-2011, 01:04 AM
yes the development & work ethic is also there. I doubt Brooks gets out of the first rd. - just like Matthews. In fact didn't Green Bay trade up to get Clay, using a 2nd & two 3rd's? Texans might consider making a move up too especially if they don't get the OLB they want @ #11?

steelbtexan
04-10-2011, 08:26 AM
yes the development & work ethic is also there. I doubt Brooks gets out of the first rd. - just like Matthews. In fact didn't Green Bay trade up to get Clay, using a 2nd & two 3rd's? Texans might consider making a move up too especially if they don't get the OLB they want @ #11?

Trading back into the bottom of the 1st rd and taking Reed or Taylor should be an option. As well as trading down.

With as many teams needing a QB Rick and Gary should be able to find a trading partner. The reason trading down wont be an option for the Texan is that teams picking in the top 15 can sign picks to 6 yr deals. While the rest of the 1st rd can only be signed to 5 yr deals. If the current CBA is still intact. Which it probably will be for this draft class.

If Rick and Gary were to trade back into the bottom of the 1st rd. BoB would have to pay two 1st rd slot $$$$. BoB's not likely to do that during a lockout. It wouldn't make good business sense and we all know BoB's all about business. I wouldn't blame BoB for this though. The lockout precludes dong everything you can to put the best team on the field as possible.

Lucky
04-10-2011, 09:02 AM
In fact didn't Green Bay trade up to get Clay, using a 2nd & two 3rd's?
Yes, they did. New England was their trading partner. The trade netted the Pats Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, and (after another draft trade for a '10 pick) Rob Gronkowski. Good players. But who wouldn't trade them for Clay Matthews? Belichick got the raw end of that deal.

It's ironic that Capers found his Kevin Greene OLB in Matthews (after a trade up) after swinging and missing with a similar draft trade in Houston for a OLB (Jason Babin). You win some and you lose some. The Texans just seem to lose more than their share. Which is why I'm against the Texans burning draft picks to move up.

My 1st round jaw dropper? Colin Kaepernick. I said back in January (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1643954&postcount=8) that Kaepernick could become the best QB in this draft. He's a similar athlete to Cam Newton, but with more experience. I can see one of the teams that misses out on a QB early (Minnesota or Tennessee) trading up into the late 1st for Kaepernick.

steelbtexan
04-10-2011, 11:51 AM
The Falcons draft Kyle Rudolph to understudy from Gonzales next yr. Then he will take over for Gonzales in yr 2.

beerlover
04-10-2011, 12:38 PM
Yes, they did. New England was their trading partner. The trade netted the Pats Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, and (after another draft trade for a '10 pick) Rob Gronkowski. Good players. But who wouldn't trade them for Clay Matthews? Belichick got the raw end of that deal.

It's ironic that Capers found his Kevin Greene OLB in Matthews (after a trade up) after swinging and missing with a similar draft trade in Houston for a OLB (Jason Babin). You win some and you lose some. The Texans just seem to lose more than their share. Which is why I'm against the Texans burning draft picks to move up.

My 1st round jaw dropper? Colin Kaepernick. I said back in January (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1643954&postcount=8) that Kaepernick could become the best QB in this draft. He's a similar athlete to Cam Newton, but with more experience. I can see one of the teams that misses out on a QB early (Minnesota or Tennessee) trading up into the late 1st for Kaepernick.

Quite possibly the difference in projecting picks along with fit + need in a system is how a players skill set has been developed & to what extent does he exhibit certain characteristics your looking for. Certainly Babin had the explosion, high motor, strength & speed to be a 4-3 DE but never had to play or develop LB skills so those questions needed to be answered before signing off on him to make such a move. In other words Casserly & his scouts did not do their due diligence & projected the wrong grade to Capers that Jason had linebacking skills needed in a 3-4 OLB. Matthews played outside LB at USC, showed he had great intincts to rush the passer & wreck havoc behind the line of scrimmage, while dropping into coverage as needed, his projection to a 3-4 OLB was a no brainer.

Kaepernick is a very interesting QB who a team must sign off that his skill set projects to the NFL level. He seems more athlete than QB to me. It will be very important for him to get a Head Coach/QB coach with track record of developing QB's, I just don't think anyone can bring the best out of him.

Lucky
04-10-2011, 07:20 PM
In other words Casserly & his scouts did not do their due diligence & projected the wrong grade to Capers that Jason had linebacking skills needed in a 3-4 OLB.
The problem with Babin wasn't "linebacker skills". It was that he didn't get to the QB often enough. 13 sacks in 3 seasons wasn't going to cut it. Had he become the pass rusher in Houston that we saw in Tennessee last season, he would have been a great pick and Casserly would have been applauded for a great trade.

bah007
04-10-2011, 11:38 PM
The Falcons draft Kyle Rudolph to understudy from Gonzales next yr. Then he will take over for Gonzales in yr 2.

Good choice. I actually see this as highly likely.

Ole Miss Texan
04-11-2011, 09:16 AM
Trading back into the bottom of the 1st rd and taking Reed or Taylor should be an option. As well as trading down.

If Rick and Gary were to trade back into the bottom of the 1st rd. BoB would have to pay two 1st rd slot $$$$. BoB's not likely to do that during a lockout. It wouldn't make good business sense and we all know BoB's all about business. I wouldn't blame BoB for this though. The lockout precludes dong everything you can to put the best team on the field as possible.

I would be a huge fan of trading back into the 1st to get Brooks Reed, especially if we have the opportunity to take Julio or Watt/Jordan at 11.

The similarities between us and GB in this situation are pretty interesting. Packers had the 9th overall where they took BJ Raji.... then traded back up to 26 with NE to take Matthews. We've got the 11th overall and are discussing trading up with NE at 28. 2 spots after GB in each case. As far as $'s go, Clay is earning about the same that the other 3 players earn combined. I don't think GB is upset at all about that though. And if Bob think he can get similar production out of Reed, then its a no brainer.

I think a more likely scenario may be us trading down from 11 and taking Brooks Reed 18-early/mid 20's.

beerlover
04-11-2011, 09:29 AM
I would be a huge fan of trading back in the 1st to get Brooks Reed, especially if we have the opportunity to take Julio or Watt/Jordan at 11.

The similarities between us and GB in this situation are pretty interesting. Packers had the 9th overall where they took BJ Raji.... then traded back up to 26 with NE to take Matthews. We've got the 11th overall and are discussing trading up with NE at 28. 2 spots after GB in each case. As far as $'s go, Clay is earning about the same that the other 3 players earn combined. I don't think GB is upset at all about that though. And if Bob think he can get similar production out of Reed, then its a no brainer.

I think a more likely scenario may be us trading down from 11 and taking Brooks Reed 18-early/mid 20's.

As of right now I have him projected to New England with their 2nd first rd. selection #28 snapping him up just before Jets, Steelers or God forbid the Packers can add him along side their other hybrid 3-4 OLB's.

Think they use 17th pick on a 5 tech DE (JJ Watt) doubt they would trade up for Cameron Jordon. However they could be tempted to trade that 28th pick if Julio Jones somehow falls to #11 (Brady might tug the hoodie hard enough to get a new weapon)? then Texans could get Brooks (value embedded, extra 2nd) while addressing need.

Ole Miss Texan
04-11-2011, 09:44 AM
As of right now I have him projected to New England with their 2nd first rd. selection #28 snapping him up just before Jets, Steelers or God forbid the Packers can add him along side their other hybrid 3-4 OLB's.

Think they use 17th pick on a 5 tech DE (JJ Watt) doubt they would trade up for Cameron Jordon. However they could be tempted to trade that 28th pick if Julio Jones somehow falls to #11 (Brady might tug the hoodie hard enough to get a new weapon)? then Texans could get Brooks (value embedded, extra 2nd) while addressing need.

You know Brady would love that. Move down to 28 and then hope Tampa Bay, Kansas City, New Orleans don't take Reed. LOL

Wolf6151
04-11-2011, 12:43 PM
I'm gonna say it's Andy Dalton that someone reaches for but not sure who.

Mr teX
04-11-2011, 01:54 PM
This thread is tailor made for Cam Newton....i actually think Carolina will pick this dude #1 overall....new coach trying to make a statement.

Blake
04-11-2011, 02:23 PM
This thread is tailor made for Cam Newton....i actually think Carolina will pick this dude #1 overall....new coach trying to make a statement.

I wouldnt call Cam Newton to the Panthers as jaw dropping. Also Cam grades as a first round QB.

Mr teX
04-11-2011, 02:31 PM
I wouldnt call Cam Newton to the Panthers as jaw dropping. Also Cam grades as a first round QB.

Yeah, but does he grade as a no. 1 overall pick though? By them taking him no. 1 overall, they're basically saying he's the best player in the draft....we know that not to be the case...he's arguably not even the best qb of the crop.

Seņor Stan
04-20-2011, 01:16 PM
Andy Dalton to the Colts @ 22

Anyone who takes Cam Newton in the 1st...

Good call on both.

I really think Andy Dalton is going to go 1st round...possibly in the top 15.

Blake
04-20-2011, 02:30 PM
Good call on both.

I really think Andy Dalton is going to go 1st round...possibly in the top 15.

I cant see that. I really cant. I think he is going to be selected high #2 for the teams that need a QB but passed at the top of round 1.

The1ApplePie
04-20-2011, 03:01 PM
I thought Mallett would be taken way too high.

But since he missed an interview with the Panthers GM because he was too hungover, I think the possibility of that has passed.

Ole Miss Texan
04-21-2011, 09:23 AM
I thought Mallett would be taken way too high.

But since he missed an interview with the Panthers GM because he was too hungover, I think the possibility of that has passed.

Are you kidding me? What happened!? hahaha :vincepalm:

Blake
04-28-2011, 08:20 PM
Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State to Jags @ 16.

Like I said, Ponder @ 12 haha!

Ole Miss Texan
04-28-2011, 11:19 PM
Like I said, Ponder @ 12 haha!

Nice! I picked Locker in late 1st but the tits took him at 8!!

beerlover
04-28-2011, 11:26 PM
The Falcons draft Kyle Rudolph to understudy from Gonzales next yr. Then he will take over for Gonzales in yr 2.

Falcons did make this drafts jaw dropper, just not Kyle, not even that it was Julio but what they traded away to get him :polevault:

steelbtexan
04-29-2011, 12:20 AM
Falcons did make this drafts jaw dropper, just not Kyle, not even that it was Julio but what they traded away to get him :polevault:

The Falcons paid an exorbenant price.

But with weapons like White, Jones, Turner and Gonzales, Ryan is going to have a huge yr and the Falcons are going to put up alot of points.

Blake
04-29-2011, 08:15 AM
The biggest reach was the Seahawks taking James Carpenter, OT, Alabama. I dont think anybody saw that coming.

I also think Atlanta paying so much for Jones was crazy. I could see them mortgaging their future for Green, but not Jones.

BigBull17
04-29-2011, 08:34 AM
I thought the Lions made a GREAT decision. That will be a really freaking nasty d line. And freaking mean. Not a nice guy one.

kiwitexansfan
04-29-2011, 08:44 AM
The biggest reach was the Seahawks taking James Carpenter, OT, Alabama. I dont think anybody saw that coming.

I also think Atlanta paying so much for Jones was crazy. I could see them mortgaging their future for Green, but not Jones.

Either that or Ponder.

Both of those were, did you read the name right moments.

bah007
04-29-2011, 09:13 AM
I kinda see the Falcons angle on the Jones pick. They can afford the luxury of giving away their draft for that guy, because they are only a player or two away from Super Bowl contention.

Atlanta is a perfect situation for Jones. Absolutely perfect. I'll tell you why:

1. They are a run-oriented team, which fits Jones because he is a devastating run blocker.

2. Jones projects as a #2 WR in the NFL, well that is okay because Atlanta already has a #1. With White taking all the pressure off of him, he will be one on one most of the time.

3. They have a great QB, great skill position players, and a solid o line. This may be the one piece they need to take the next step.

They still need another pass rusher. So they are gonna have to make the right decisions the rest of the way, because the top guys will be going off the board quickly.

bah007
04-29-2011, 09:21 AM
Like most of y'all I was surprised at the Ponder and Carpenter picks.

Carpenter isn't a LT in the NFL. He is a RT or a OG. If they took him for that reason they will be disappointed. It is a reach, but hell, the guy is going to make a really good NFL player. So if he was the top guy on their board, and they couldn't trade back, might as well pull the trigger.

The Ponder pick, same thing. If he was their top guy, and they couldn't make a move, go ahead and take him. Ponder may very well be the most NFL ready QB in this class, but that isn't really saying much because this class isn't very talented. I wouldn't take him in the first, but I'm also not a NFL GM.

I'm really not a fan of any of these QBs as first round picks, but I understand the process and that QB is the most important position on the field.

Ponder may have been a reach, but at least the pick makes sense. They need a QB now and he is the most NFL ready.

The Gabbert pick makes sense. He needs time on the bench, and he will get that behind Gerrard.

The Locker pick makes sense. He needs time on the bench, and he will get that behind Collins. Hopefully. I think he might be a free agent.

The Newton pick makes no sense. He needs time on the bench, and he isn't likely to get very much of it. I get that he is a physical freak who just oozes talent, but he doesn't project to play right away in the NFL. They would have been better served by taking A.J. Green and then taking a QB later on. The only way this pick makes sense is if they let Newton sit for at least a full year. Which isn't likely because Carolina is going to suck and the pressure to get him out there will be tremendous.

Blake
04-29-2011, 02:07 PM
I kinda see the Falcons angle on the Jones pick. They can afford the luxury of giving away their draft for that guy, because they are only a player or two away from Super Bowl contention.

Atlanta is a perfect situation for Jones. Absolutely perfect. I'll tell you why:

1. They are a run-oriented team, which fits Jones because he is a devastating run blocker.

2. Jones projects as a #2 WR in the NFL, well that is okay because Atlanta already has a #1. With White taking all the pressure off of him, he will be one on one most of the time.

3. They have a great QB, great skill position players, and a solid o line. This may be the one piece they need to take the next step.

They still need another pass rusher. So they are gonna have to make the right decisions the rest of the way, because the top guys will be going off the board quickly.

I disagree. I hear they wanted Green more and tried to move up to 4 but missed out with the Bengals. I think the Falcons are gambling big time with their future. And if they were 1 or 2 players away from the SB they wouldnt have been run out of their own building by the Packers.

Bottom line is they were desperate and desperate people do crazy stuff. Jones is not the 6th best player in my book and the ransom they paid was ludicrous.

bah007
04-29-2011, 02:45 PM
I disagree. I hear they wanted Green more and tried to move up to 4 but missed out with the Bengals. I think the Falcons are gambling big time with their future. And if they were 1 or 2 players away from the SB they wouldnt have been run out of their own building by the Packers.

Bottom line is they were desperate and desperate people do crazy stuff. Jones is not the 6th best player in my book and the ransom they paid was ludicrous.

First off, it's not like the Packers are some sort of scrub team or anything. They did end up winning it all...

I don't think Jones is the 6th best player in this draft. I'm not even really sure if he is the 15th best player. I have him ranked lower than most. But he was going to go early, he fits their scheme perfectly, and with White across from him he won't be receiving double coverage. The Falcons just wanted that #2 across from White badly enough to go up and get him.

I'm not saying I would have done what they did. I wouldn't have. I'm just saying I think I see why they did it. We'll see how smart they really are in the next couple of days. The draft isn't over yet.

Dutchrudder
04-29-2011, 02:55 PM
I disagree. I hear they wanted Green more and tried to move up to 4 but missed out with the Bengals. I think the Falcons are gambling big time with their future. And if they were 1 or 2 players away from the SB they wouldnt have been run out of their own building by the Packers.

Bottom line is they were desperate and desperate people do crazy stuff. Jones is not the 6th best player in my book and the ransom they paid was ludicrous.

As a Browns fan, I love it! :-D

The browns are still rebuilding, so this is very fortunate for them to get 6 picks for the price of 1.