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View Full Version : Who goes #1 overall?


SF49erFaithful
03-15-2011, 04:29 AM
As you all know, it's plausible that about 6 different players could be the first pick this year. So, who is the pick and why?

Ole Miss Texan
03-15-2011, 09:33 AM
Cam Newton is starting to generate some buzz.

Cam Newton
Da'Quan Bowers
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
Patrick Peterson
AJ Green

I'm kind of hoping it's Bowers because I like the ripple effect better. I think Buffalo could take Newton and then some other team could possibly take Gabbert (San Fran/Tennessee/Washington)? If Arizona takes Robert Quin over Von Miller, its possible we may draft an Aggie in the 1st round.

1. CAR - Da'Quan Bowers
2. DEN - Marcell Dareus
3. BUF - Cam Newton
4. CIN - AJ Green
5. DAL - Patrick Peterson (Dallas trades up)*
6. CLE - Julio Jones (Colt needs a #1)
7. SF - Blaine Gabbert (new coaching change, Harbaugh recruited Gabbert?)
8. TEN - Nick Fairley (just seems like a Titan)
9. ARI - Robert Quin (Arizona traded down)
10. WAS - JJ Watt (character/work ethic Shanahan loves)
11. HOU - Von Miller to the Texans!!

IDEXAN
03-15-2011, 09:49 AM
Cam Newton is starting to generate some buzz.

Cam Newton
Da'Quan Bowers
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
Patrick Peterson
AJ Green

I'm kind of hoping it's Bowers because I like the ripple effect better. I think Buffalo could take Newton and then some other team could possibly take Gabbert (San Fran/Tennessee/Washington)? If Arizona takes Robert Quin over Von Miller, its possible we may draft an Aggie in the 1st round.
BTW I see the Mizzou QB going #1.

1. CAR - Da'Quan Bowers
2. DEN - Marcell Dareus
3. BUF - Cam Newton
4. CIN - AJ Green
5. DAL - Patrick Peterson (Dallas trades up)*
6. CLE - Julio Jones (Colt needs a #1)
7. SF - Blaine Gabbert (new coaching change, Harbaugh recruited Gabbert?)
8. TEN - Nick Fairley (just seems like a Titan)
9. ARI - Robert Quin (Arizona traded down)
10. WAS - JJ Watt (character/work ethic Shanahan loves)
11. HOU - Von Miller to the Texans!!
I enjoy your comments Ole Miss Texan, even when you are dreamin, which is the case here. I count 7 3-4 teams in the top 10 and you think Miller falls to us ? Honestly, don't you think we have to be prepared to move up and part with atleast a 3-round pick to have a chance at Miller ?

Ole Miss Texan
03-15-2011, 09:58 AM
I enjoy your comments Ole Miss Texan, even when you are dreamin, which is the case here. I count 7 3-4 teams in the top 10 and you think Miller falls to us ? Honestly, don't you think we have to be prepared to move up and part with atleast a 3-round pick to have a chance at Miller ?
What's the chance of Miller dropping to the Texans?
About 1 in a Million.
So you're tellin me there's a chance!

Every year a "top" talent falls. Some say Quin is a top 5 talent and I don't think it's unreasonable that a team may gamble on him over Miller as the top 3-4 OLB. It's also possible that there are 6 or so other players rated higher than Miller on those teams' boards: Bowers, Dareus, Fairley, Peterson, Jones, Green, and then reaches on 2 QBs. I see Watt going higher than people think and he addresses a bigger need for WAS. I'm not betting on Miller being available but I don't think it's out of the question - just offering up a way it could happen.


As far as #1 goes, I have no idea. Bowers makes sense, he addresses a need and should be rated very high. But he's got a lot of question marks. I don't think Fairley will be it... could be Dareus if Carolina goes 3-4... but aren't they 4-3? I think the Panthers could go a number of directions.

SF49erFaithful
03-15-2011, 08:30 PM
I'm just going back and forth with the idea of a QB at #1. I mean, Carolina needs a QB pretty bad, or appears to at least (Jimmy Clausen the answer??), but the top-end talent at that position is just so poor this year that I am not convinced they will go that direction. On the other hand, the value of these guys is so inflated that they may feel forced to do so.

Also, it's been 17 years since a DT was drafted #1 overall, which makes me wonder if Rivera won't take one of the 2 SEC studs there for the same reason many think Peterson won't go #1.

Hmmmmm....

Texan_Bill
03-15-2011, 08:37 PM
Cam Newton is starting to generate some buzz.

Cam Newton
Da'Quan Bowers
Marcell Dareus
Nick Fairley
Patrick Peterson
AJ Green

I'm kind of hoping it's Bowers because I like the ripple effect better. I think Buffalo could take Newton and then some other team could possibly take Gabbert (San Fran/Tennessee/Washington)? If Arizona takes Robert Quin over Von Miller, its possible we may draft an Aggie in the 1st round.

1. CAR - Da'Quan Bowers
2. DEN - Marcell Dareus
3. BUF - Cam Newton
4. CIN - AJ Green
5. DAL - Patrick Peterson (Dallas trades up)*
6. CLE - Julio Jones (Colt needs a #1)
7. SF - Blaine Gabbert (new coaching change, Harbaugh recruited Gabbert?)
8. TEN - Nick Fairley (just seems like a Titan)
9. ARI - Robert Quin (Arizona traded down)
10. WAS - JJ Watt (character/work ethic Shanahan loves)
11. HOU - Von Miller to the Texans!!

Von Miller won't be around at 11.... :cry2: Unfortunately.

gary
03-15-2011, 08:57 PM
I am kind of hoping AJ Green falls to the Texans somehow.

Texan4Ever
03-15-2011, 09:13 PM
I have to say its going to be Cam Newton. Ron Rivera is a defensive-minded coach so he probably thinks he can take just about anyone and get 100% out of em'. Also, there is no Ndamukong Suh this year nor any other stud defensive playmaker that has dominated his position consistently for at least three years.

With the change in HC almost always comes with a new quarterback and regardless of the fact that you may not like him, Cam Newton's tangibles and his size are too good to pass up especially in a poor QB draft class.

Lucky
03-15-2011, 10:02 PM
QBs go #1.

After all the pinching, poking, and prying, Blaine Gabbert will be the #1 QB.

Therefore, Blaine Gabbert will be the #1 pick.


5. DAL - Patrick Peterson (Dallas trades up)*

There's no doubt in my mind that Jerry will make a play for Peterson.

SF49erFaithful
03-16-2011, 04:44 AM
QBs go #1.

After all the pinching, poking, and prying, Blaine Gabbert will be the #1 QB.

Therefore, Blaine Gabbert will be the #1 pick.


There's no doubt in my mind that Jerry will make a play for Peterson.

Why, in your opinion, is it Gabbert instead of CN?

beerlover
03-16-2011, 04:53 AM
Why, in your opinion, is it Gabbert instead of CN?

Gabbert has a quick pro style release (no hesitation at all) comes out tight & accurate to the target, not a hell of a lot different from many of the 49'er greats.

Ole Miss Texan
03-16-2011, 09:43 AM
If Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert go #1, it would be a great thing for the Texans.

Newton, Gabbert, AJ Green, Julio Jones and Tyron Smith have a shot at going before our pick. That leaves 5 defensive players to be selected before us... we could get a top guy.

NitroGSXR
03-16-2011, 11:24 AM
Who goes #1 overall? Definitely the owners. No brainer.

The1ApplePie
03-16-2011, 11:29 AM
According to "experts" aren't Bowers and Fairley tanking?

Not that it will happen, but would either fit the 3-4 if they fell to the Texans?

bah007
03-16-2011, 11:33 AM
According to "experts" aren't Bowers and Fairley tanking?

Not that it will happen, but would either fit the 3-4 if they fell to the Texans?

IMO, no.

I see Bowers strictly as a 43 DE and Fairley as a 43 DT.

Some people project Fairley as a 34 DE but I don't see it. Could he do it? Yes, I suppose. But he is way, way better off in a 43.

bah007
03-16-2011, 11:40 AM
The only positions that go #1 are QB, LT, or DE.

That means Newton and Gabbert are in the conversation, even though neither is close to being worth the #1 overall selection.

A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson should be in the conversation, only because they are the top two prospects. Either of them being selected #1 is highly unlikely though.

There are no tackles worth the #1 selection.

Bowers is the top DE. Dareus and Fairley are DTs so I don't see them going.

Basically, I would be surprised if anyone besides Bowers, Gabbert, or Newton was selected #1.

If I were the Panthers I would take Peterson. No questions asked. But that's just me.

Ole Miss Texan
03-16-2011, 11:47 AM
IMO, no.

I see Bowers strictly as a 43 DE and Fairley as a 43 DT.

Some people project Fairley as a 34 DE but I don't see it. Could he do it? Yes, I suppose. But he is way, way better off in a 43.

Agreed. And I'd much rather have JJ Watt or Cameron Jordan at DE than Fairley. I see him as 4-3 DT, he reminds me a lot of Haynsworth (maybe most of it is the attitude and tough play).

Ole Miss Texan
03-16-2011, 11:58 AM
The only positions that go #1 are QB, LT, or DE.

That means Newton and Gabbert are in the conversation, even though neither is close to being worth the #1 overall selection.

A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson should be in the conversation, only because they are the top two prospects. Either of them being selected #1 is highly unlikely though.

There are no tackles worth the #1 selection.

Bowers is the top DE. Dareus and Fairley are DTs so I don't see them going.

Basically, I would be surprised if anyone besides Bowers, Gabbert, or Newton was selected #1.

If I were the Panthers I would take Peterson. No questions asked. But that's just me.
A team at #1 isn't going to draft a QB at that spot unless they think he's a franchise guy. If they think he has it, he'll be the selection. If they don't then they won't select him even if their QB situation isn't great. That's a position, IMO, you don't look for marginal improvement with the #1 pick.

It's rumored they have questions about the DL prospects, mostly medical questions and how much they'd impact early in their rookie season. If true, Bowers is one of the concerns. If they don't think Newton/Gabbert could be their franchise QB then there's no point taking him. Green or Peterson could be the picks. But signs really are pointing to Newton. Question: Are the Panthers going to be 43?? I just love the draft and all the drama and projecting and rumors.

I totally understand the positional value and the #1 pick: QB, LT and DE are the most impactful positions in the game. But I don't believe a CB or DT or whoever wouldn't be selected JUST because they never have been (or its been a really long time). Look at the 2009 season and the 2010 draft. Rams were 1-15, Lions were 2-14. Let's say Detroit had lost 1 of those wins or the Rams won just 1 of those 15 losses... that would put Detroit in the #1 spot. Do you think they would not have selected Ndamakung Suh, a DT, #1 overall??? They would have.

bah007
03-16-2011, 08:17 PM
The #1 selection has more to do with money than anything else. The reason only QBs, LTs, and DEs go #1 is because those are the only positions that are worth that kind of ridiculous money.

If there were a rookie wage scale you would see a lot of different positions go #1.

drs23
03-16-2011, 08:52 PM
The #1 selection has more to do with money than anything else. The reason only QBs, LTs, and DEs go #1 is because those are the only positions that are worth that kind of ridiculous money.

If there were a rookie wage scale you would see a lot of different positions go #1.


I believe you're 100% correct. I think the rookie wage scale will be in writing when the dust settles.

HoustonFrog
03-17-2011, 10:42 AM
Not Gabbert

http://twitter.com/#!/evansilva

Panthers top beat reporter hears Blaine Gabbert's arm strength "ordinary." No scouts or coaches say they "love" Gabbert http://bit.ly/e0IZb6

evansilva Evan Silva
Panthers top beat reporter: Dareus, Newton, Peterson are top 3 candidates for No. 1 overall pick. http://bit.ly/hc4ilV

infantrycak
03-17-2011, 11:09 AM
Weird, yesterday the story was his arm strength wasn't in question but his accuracy was (from PFT.com):

Unlike a lot of spread quarterbacks, Gabbert’s arm strength is not a question. Neither is his athleticism. Perhaps the biggest question Gabbert faces is about his accuracy.

“Some scouts I’ve talked to in recent weeks rave about Gabbert’s measurables, but they’re not yet sold on his accuracy making throws outside the hash marks, or question whether he consistently enough stretched the field vertically in Missouri’s offense,” Banks writes.

NFL.com’s Pat Kirwan says Gabbert’s completion percentage of throws over 15 yards was around 30%, which sounds troubling. (It’s not quite as bad as you’d think: Tom Brady was below 50% on throws over 11 yards last year and he was the MVP.)

HoustonFrog
03-17-2011, 12:15 PM
Weird, yesterday the story was his arm strength wasn't in question but his accuracy was (from PFT.com):

Maybe it just goes to being him overall. Honestly, the guy didn't stand out this past college season and I think he is a product of teams being desperate for QBs at top of the draft. With no FA on the horizon they need to address it with someone.

HoustonFrog
03-17-2011, 04:02 PM
Then there is this

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/201893/football-headlines?r=1

Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert unofficially completed 44-of-49 passes at the Tigers' Pro Day Thursday.
Mizzou beat writer Dave Matter attributes "at least three" of the incompletions to drops on catchable balls. Gabbert's Pro Day was not fully televised, but the early returns suggest plenty of arm strength, nice footwork, and a more natural throwing motion than Cam Newton. ESPN 101 St. Louis' Tony Softli, a former NFL exec, is now calling Gabbert a "more athletic Drew Bledsoe" while SI.com's Don Banks suggests the performance will "give Carolina something to think about" at No. 1 overall. Gabbert also scored an impressive 42 on the Wonderlic exam.

Insideop
03-24-2011, 07:42 PM
The funny thing about this particular draft, to me anyways, is there doesn't seem to be any clear cut #1. If Luck would have come out there would have been no question, or at least very few, and Carolina would have probably had him locked up before the draft was started, provided the lockout was over. But, as it stands now, who do they pick? Both QB's have some ???, and although DE Bowers is good, is he worth the #1 pick? As for the DT's, both probably have questions too, but I think Dareus is the safer pick.

So would you go with a QB with ???, a DE with ???, or a DT with ??? Not knowing much about Carolina's needs, I think I would go with DT Dareus. He may be the safest pick out of the bunch, and if you are trying to rebuild your team, it's always best to start in the trenches IMO!

kiwitexansfan
03-24-2011, 08:06 PM
Dareus would be my pick too. I think he will be a very good player at a very important position for a long time.

IDEXAN
03-25-2011, 07:53 AM
I'm puzzled why a CB couldn't be the top pick as much as an edge-rusher or LT ? They say a team can take him out of the game by just not throwing to his side (as teams often reportedly do with with the Jets Revis). Why is that not worth a 1st overall pick, i.e., to have a defender so good on your team that the opposing offense often will only throw to one side of the defensive backfield ?

bah007
03-25-2011, 09:03 AM
I'm puzzled why a CB couldn't be the top pick as much as an edge-rusher or LT ? They say a team can take him out of the game by just not throwing to his side (as teams often reportedly do with with the Jets Revis). Why is that not worth a 1st overall pick, i.e., to have a defender so good on your team that the opposing offense often will only throw to one side of the defensive backfield ?

I don't completely understand it either. I would take Peterson. They need talent, and he is the best player.

Blake
03-25-2011, 09:25 AM
Peterson.

Ole Miss Texan
03-25-2011, 09:49 AM
Great players make you scheme around them. Would Carolina not take Andre Johnson if he was in the draft JUST because the defense could overload a side and "shut him down"? Great players don't just make plays themselves, they give the rest of their team opportunities to succeed. I think Peterson could be the pick, particularly because it's sounding like there will be some sort of wage scale... that only helps non-QB/DE/LT positions.

Blake
03-25-2011, 09:57 AM
Has a corner ever been the #1 pick?

In this draft Carolina will take a QB, DT or DE before they select Peterson.

infantrycak
03-25-2011, 10:04 AM
Has a corner ever been the #1 pick?

Unless I scrolled over one according to NFL.com's draft history, no.

El Tejano
03-25-2011, 10:14 AM
Probably because there are so many CBs in the league and it typically takes a CB almost 4 years to show any value. But I agree, if you look over the last 10 drafts or so, all the top DT taken in the first half of the draft don't pan out like the top DTs in the last half of the draft do, and mostly all the Top CBs taken in the first part of the draft always pan out.

Lucky
03-25-2011, 09:06 PM
Unless I scrolled over one according to NFL.com's draft history, no.
The highest I've seen a CB taken is #3 (Shawn Springs & Bruce Pickens).

HoustonFrog
03-28-2011, 03:45 PM
Probably because there are so many CBs in the league and it typically takes a CB almost 4 years to show any value. But I agree, if you look over the last 10 drafts or so, all the top DT taken in the first half of the draft don't pan out like the top DTs in the last half of the draft do, and mostly all the Top CBs taken in the first part of the draft always pan out.

Here is a quote from Tomlin on why he things CBs drop in the Top 10.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=6263899

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin offered a good reason cornerbacks usually don't go in the top five selections. LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is touted as one of the best players in the draft and even a potential first overall pick. (Check out KC Joyner's Insider column here.)

"I think defensively, it generally starts with the men up front," Tomlin said. "I think you look at how players are drafted. It bears that out. Big people go first. If you are applying pressure to the quarterback, you don't have to cover. If you're stopping the run, you don't have to cover."

beerlover
03-29-2011, 04:46 PM
questions concerning Gabbert lacking arm strength is pure fabrication. I think his ceiling is higher than Stafford & he went #1.

Mr teX
03-29-2011, 04:52 PM
I believe you're 100% correct. I think the rookie wage scale will be in writing when the dust settles.

which actually might open the door for the panthers to select a position other than QB, DE or LT going #1 overall when you think about it.

drs23
04-04-2011, 02:13 PM
which actually might open the door for the panthers to select a position other than QB, DE or LT going #1 overall when you think about it.

I agree. The talking heads have highlighted this point many times.

Corrosion
04-05-2011, 10:17 PM
I dont think Carolina has a clue who they will take with the #1 anymore than we do or any of the draft mockers.
There isnt really a guy who jumps out at prime position that says "Im the best player in the draft". There are at least six player's who you could argue fit that description.

JimBaker488
04-05-2011, 10:47 PM
I dont think Carolina has a clue who they will take with the #1 anymore than we do or any of the draft mockers.

Carolina is on the clock and the whole Board is there for them to choose from,
I think they have a very good idea who they are going to draft.

Corrosion
04-05-2011, 11:47 PM
Carolina is on the clock and the whole Board is there for them to choose from,
I think they have a very good idea who they are going to draft.

My point is that there is no clear cut #1 player in this draft.

Most years you can write in the top 2-3 picks .... not this time. We see 2 DE's , 2 DT's , 2 QB's , an OLB and a CB who is probably the most talented player but .... when's a CB been taken #1 overall ?

You could give eight different teams the #1 pick and they would each choose a different player.

Texan_Bill
04-06-2011, 12:37 AM
Gig 'EM!!!!! GOOOOoooo AGGIES! WHOOP!!

Corrosion
04-06-2011, 01:26 AM
Gig 'EM!!!!! GOOOOoooo AGGIES! WHOOP!!

If it were up to me ..... that Aggie would be my #1 pick and coming from a http://ts3.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=821122373374&id=156d8ada4a9fef95bf8d47eb63d0ef91&url=http%3a%2f%2fi974.photobucket.com%2falbums%2fa e225%2fCowboysLonghorns%2f1280longhorns3.jpg that should tell ya something.

TexCanada
04-07-2011, 04:41 PM
Cam Newton is on top of A LOT of mocks right now. He seems to be the most popular choice for top pick right now.

Mr teX
04-07-2011, 04:47 PM
It should be Dareus or Gabbert. Carolina is monumentally stupid if they take Newton. You're not winning this year, At least see what you have in Clausen 1st & if it turns out to be nothing, you can go after Andrew Luck next year if you suck enough! That or get Ponder or that other kid from Central Michigan later in the same draft.