PDA

View Full Version : 2011 NFL Compensatory Picks


srrono
02-24-2011, 07:44 PM
In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of 32 picks awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as "compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as "supplemental compensatory selections").

Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.

http://www.silverandblackpride.com/2011/2/21/2005920/2011-nfl-compensatory-picks-lets-get-up-to-speed

Texans are due 1 I believe

ArlingtonTexan
02-24-2011, 09:10 PM
There is a guy who has been very good at predicting these things. He staterd as a poster on like KFFL or some other "national" message board, but now has a blog. Usually somone posts his prediction when they become available.

Lucky
02-24-2011, 09:33 PM
There is a guy who has been very good at predicting these things. He staterd as a poster on like KFFL or some other "national" message board, but now has a blog. Usually somone posts his prediction when they become available.
AdamJT13's blog (http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/) (hasn't been updated for awhile).

ArlingtonTexan
02-25-2011, 12:09 AM
AdamJT13's blog (http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/) (hasn't been updated for awhile).

Looks like we are a week or two from when he normally publishes his guesstimation. I assuming that last year action does not change with the CBA issues

infantrycak
02-25-2011, 08:53 AM
There is a guy who has been very good at predicting these things. He staterd as a poster on like KFFL or some other "national" message board, but now has a blog. Usually somone posts his prediction when they become available.

He is good but even he admits he is right about two thirds of the time. The real formula has never been released. His guess is good but clearly not the actual formula.

2slik4u
02-25-2011, 09:27 AM
He is good but even he admits he is right about two thirds of the time. The real formula has never been released. His guess is good but clearly not the actual formula.

Do you know how many compensatory picks we get? If any?

dc_txtech
02-25-2011, 09:44 AM
Do you know how many compensatory picks we get? If any?

Just one for Dunta.

keyser
02-25-2011, 10:57 AM
Do you know how many compensatory picks we get? If any?

In an earlier discussion, the conclusion seemed to be that we will end up getting one 7th round compensatory pick.

dalemurphy
02-25-2011, 11:35 AM
In an earlier discussion, the conclusion seemed to be that we will end up getting one 7th round compensatory pick.

If we didn't sign Neil Rackers to a FA deal, we may have gotten a 3rd. I'm happy to have Rackers, but that does sting a bit. I wish our organization was forward thinking enough so they could've realized that and worked out a sign and trade with Arizona and sent them a 7th for their help.

Dutchrudder
02-25-2011, 11:43 AM
If we didn't sign Neil Rackers to a FA deal, we may have gotten a 3rd. I'm happy to have Rackers, but that does sting a bit. I wish our organization was forward thinking enough so they could've realized that and worked out a sign and trade with Arizona and sent them a 7th for their help.

I don't know if they would do that for a 7th because they lost Dansby and Rolle last year too and picked up a FA kicker. Doing that deal might cost them a high compensatory pick depending on any other FA moves involving their team.

infantrycak
02-25-2011, 11:49 AM
Do you know how many compensatory picks we get? If any?

Nobody knows. As stated above the formula is secret. It's all speculation at this point.

In an earlier discussion, the conclusion seemed to be that we will end up getting one 7th round compensatory pick.

No offense but that was your conclusion. May turn out correct. It is a secret formula and I'm not sure your (more properly the blogger's) number of qualifying FA's trumps all approach is correct. Tennessee had 6 free agents leave and 6 free agents arrive after 2008 and in 2009 received a 3rd round pick for Haynesworth leaving plus a couple in the 7th round.

dalemurphy
02-25-2011, 01:37 PM
I don't know if they would do that for a 7th because they lost Dansby and Rolle last year too and picked up a FA kicker. Doing that deal might cost them a high compensatory pick depending on any other FA moves involving their team.

That's a good point, Dutch... However, I'm still pretty certain that such issues didn't cross the minds of our organization's leaders... and, that concerns me.

HOU-TEX
02-25-2011, 01:47 PM
We brought in Wade Smith too.

HOU-TEX
02-25-2011, 01:50 PM
If we didn't sign Neil Rackers to a FA deal, we may have gotten a 3rd. I'm happy to have Rackers, but that does sting a bit. I wish our organization was forward thinking enough so they could've realized that and worked out a sign and trade with Arizona and sent them a 7th for their help.

:spit:

infantrycak
02-25-2011, 01:55 PM
Assume keyser and the blogger are correct. Would you rather have had Kris Brown (who was universally reviled and used as an example of incompetence by Kubiak) plus a 3rd or Rackers and a 7th?

Can't have it both ways folks.

dalemurphy
02-25-2011, 05:12 PM
We brought in Wade Smith too.

I know. But, there are various opinions whether that single FA signing would've knocked us off the 3rd round to the 7th... Part of it would depend on whether the Seattle signing of Chester Pitts would've been part of the equation.

My point is that, if they were going to let Dunta walk and decided not to trade him, it would've been smart to frame the off-season in a way that they could acquire a good compensatory pick from him, at least.

that being said, I am glad they signed Wade Smith, regardless.

dalemurphy
02-25-2011, 05:17 PM
More to the point, I would guess that many of the best organizations plan 2-3 years ahead of time, lining up their rosters and off-seasons to be highly active in a strong FA year and quiet in another- acquiring one or more compensatory picks. Last season was an awful FA market and one where it made some sense to sit idle and collect compensation.

Rey
02-25-2011, 05:47 PM
More to the point, I would guess that many of the best organizations plan 2-3 years ahead of time, lining up their rosters and off-seasons to be highly active in a strong FA year and quiet in another- acquiring one or more compensatory picks. Last season was an awful FA market and one where it made some sense to sit idle and collect compensation.

I think all organizations think about the future, but I do not think any of them plan every single detail pertaining to things that will happen in 2-3 yrs.

I understand they are the big boys and we are just fans...But I didn't see a single concern, raise of the eyebrow or show of distaste over compensatory picks when we chose to keep Rackers over Brown.

Plus...If your real goal is to make the play-offs right now the loss of a compensatory pick pick in the future may be worth it in your mind.

I really can't fault the Organization for that decision.

ArlingtonTexan
02-25-2011, 05:55 PM
More to the point, I would guess that many of the best organizations plan 2-3 years ahead of time, lining up their rosters and off-seasons to be highly active in a strong FA year and quiet in another- acquiring one or more compensatory picks. Last season was an awful FA market and one where it made some sense to sit idle and collect compensation.

If you click on the blog link earlier there is more evidence that since teams don't know the formula they are awful at predicting compensatory picks.

While I think that teams attempt to look ahead, when teams are making these decisions (March-April 2010), I think no more than 5% of a decision is based on the highly erradic free agent and draft of 2011. My guess is that is rare a team turns down a player that will have immediate impact based on getting a 5th round compsatory pick which they are not even sure they will really get.

Lucky
02-25-2011, 06:58 PM
He is good but even he admits he is right about two thirds of the time. The real formula has never been released. His guess is good but clearly not the actual formula.
He's been much more accurate than that. He may miss a pick on occasion due to whether a guy was a qualified free agent (basically the amount of the contract). He may miss by a round. But he's pretty darn close. Here's his accuracy results from 1998-2009 (http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/accuracy-of-previous-projections.html).

Here are the result of my previous comp pick projections (with links to all of the projections since 2002) --

1998 — I projected 23 comps; the NFL awarded 19. I had 15 of them going to the correct team, with 10 going to the correct team in the correct round and three more off by one round.
2002 (http://groups.google.com/group/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/msg/618983d2ec7e4821?hl=en) — 22 correct, four others off by one round
2003 (http://groups.google.com/group/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/msg/ccc560c883875816?hl=en) — 26 correct, four others off by one round
2004 (http://groups.google.com/group/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/msg/d91c7a3fc05d493c) — 26 correct, two others off by one round
2005 (http://groups.google.com/group/alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys/msg/9f4a9154978677e5?hl=en) — 22 correct, six others off by one round
2006 (http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=163280) — 26 correct, four others off by one round
2007 (http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=200611) — 20 correct, five others off by one round
2008 (http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=225685) — 25 correct, four others off by one round
2009 (http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/projecting-2009-compensatory-nfl-draft.html) — 26 correct, three others off by one round
Nobody knows. As stated above the formula is secret. It's all speculation at this point.



No offense but that was your conclusion. May turn out correct. It is a secret formula and I'm not sure your (more properly the blogger's) number of qualifying FA's trumps all approach is correct. Tennessee had 6 free agents leave and 6 free agents arrive after 2008 and in 2009 received a 3rd round pick for Haynesworth leaving plus a couple in the 7th round.
I don't know where you're getting that the Titans signed 6 free agents. Prior to the compensatory picks announcement, Adamjt13 had the Titans losing a net 4 qualified free agents (losing 6, gaining 2). But the WR Mark Jones signing from Carolina was qualified in the formula and the Titans only received a net 3 picks.



My point is that, if they were going to let Dunta walk and decided not to trade him, it would've been smart to frame the off-season in a way that they could acquire a good compensatory pick from him, at least.
A team can't make a decision based upon acquiring the 100th best prospect 2 drafts away. Signing Rackers and Smith were the right moves for a team trying to win.

You could make a point that the Texans could have tagged Robinson, and then attempted to trade him for a future pick. That may or may not have worked. Dnta could have immediately signed the offer sheet and , if they couldn't swing a deal, they could have been stuck with him. But, I won't criticize Smitiak for that.

infantrycak
02-28-2011, 08:40 AM
He's been much more accurate than that. He may miss a pick on occasion due to whether a guy was a qualified free agent (basically the amount of the contract). He may miss by a round. But he's pretty darn close.

I was citing something he said on his blog.

I don't know where you're getting that the Titans signed 6 free agents. Prior to the compensatory picks announcement, Adamjt13 had the Titans losing a net 4 qualified free agents (losing 6, gaining 2). But the WR Mark Jones signing from Carolina was qualified in the formula and the Titans only received a net 3 picks.

Pulled up a free agent tracker from that year. Now all of them might not have been qualifying free agents.