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View Full Version : Trading the first: Spots (and players) to target.


Xman
04-11-2005, 04:14 PM
If the Texans decide to deal down (or up), what players should they aim for and at what spot can they get them where we get maximum value (in other words, where can we get best value from the pick)?

Most people agree on a "top 12" - which means they should at least go in the top 15 picks.
1. Aaron Rodger
2. Braylon Edwards
3. Alex Smith
4. Ronnie Brown
5. Mike Williams
6. Antrell Rolle
7. Cedric Benson
8. Carnell Williams
9. Derrick Johnson
10. Shawne Merriman
11. "Pac Man" Jones
12. T. Williamson

Personally, I like Clayton, but 13 is a little high to take him. Others have been hyping Pollack, Spears, Jones, etc. So, after the top 12, who would we be happy with in the 1st?

Clayton, Barron, Pollack, Spears, CRogers, EJames, and Cody would fill needs and seem to be quality players worthy of a high pick.
Jones (I am not sold on him but others seem to be) might be.

So, does that mean we could trade down 6-8 spots and still get value?

According to the pick chart:
#13 to StL for #19 and their 2nd is fair (SL might do this to get Barron).

We even get good value at #21 if we make a deal with JVille - if there ar 8 players there that are good value (barron, Pollack, clayton, spears, CRogers, EJames, Cody, Jones).

As I said, I like Clayton. But, if the Texans take him at #13, I would be disappointed. If they took him at #21, I would be ecstatic. Same for Pollack, Spears, James and Cody.

If you think the Texans should trade, what is the deal that should be made? And, what player are they targeting at a certain spot?
(please consult the draft pick chart to make sure the deal looks close to fair - I realize the chart is not always followed but it makes a good starting point for conjecture)


Tennessee deal: #13, #47(or #73 and #78), and #173 for #6
Target would be DJ, Rolle or MWilliams?
Detroit deal: #13 and #78 for #10
Target would be DJ or ?
StLouis deal: #13 to StL for #19 and their 2nd
Target is whoever falls. (I would love Clayton here.
Philly deal: #13 for #31 and #35.
Target is Blackstock and RBrown
Your deal????/

Draft Pick Value Chart
Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Other
1 3000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 28 193 15.2 225 2.9
2 2600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 27.6 194 14.8 226 2.8
3 2200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 27.2 195 14.4 227 2.7
4 1800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 26.8 196 14 228 2.6
5 1700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 26.4 197 13.6 229 2.5
6 1600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 26 198 13.2 230 2.4
7 1500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 25.6 199 12.8 231 2.3
8 1400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 25.2 200 12.4 232 2.2
9 1350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 24.8 201 12 233 2.1
10 1300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 24.4 202 11.6 234 2
11 1250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 24 203 11.2 235 1.9
12 1200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 23.6 204 10.8 236 1.8
13 1150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 23.2 205 10.4 237 1.7
14 1100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 22.8 206 10 238 1.6
15 1050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 22.4 207 9.6 239 1.5
16 1000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 22 208 9.2 240 1.4
17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 21.6 209 8.8 241 1.3
18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 21.2 210 8.4 242 1.2
19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 20.8 211 8 243 1.1
20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 20.4 212 7.6 244 1
21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 20 213 7.2 245 0.95
22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 19.6 214 6.8 246 0.9
23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 19.2 215 6.4 247 0.85
24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 31.8 184 18.8 216 6 248 0.8
25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 31.2 185 18.4 217 5.6 249 0.75
26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 30.8 186 18 218 5.2 250 0.7
27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 30.4 187 17.6 219 4.8 251 0.65
28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 30 188 17.2 220 4.4 252 0.6
29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 29.6 189 16.8 221 4 253 0.55
30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 29.2 190 16.4 222 3.6 254 0.5
31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 28.8 191 16 223 3.3 255 0.45
32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 28.4 192 15.6 224 3 256 0.4

Texans Picks
Pick# Point Value
13 1150
47 430
73 225
78 200
108 78
142 35
173 23.2
204 10.8

beerlover
04-11-2005, 04:43 PM
seems things are changing at least to me and a name that looks ever the more looming is a name not even on your list but he is rated just below Derrick Johnson (9.44) my major concern earlier was the level of competition he faced while at Troy, but evidently his workouts at the combine, pro-day and private have been off the charts.

therefore with the 13th pick if the Texans stay @ #13 look for them to complete the linbacker modification's by selecting Demarcus Ware (9.24). think of him as just a slightly larger version of DJ & yes he does have experience dropping back into coverage besides his explosive first step to the QB.

if he is not available I would'nt be surprised if the Texans went with Carlos Rogers (9.42) the big corner out of Auburn or Davis (9.19) the safety from Gerogia.

I do also like the idea of trading our 1st pick for a 1st pick next year plus a 2nd rounder this year, if the situation is right :thumbup

wags
04-11-2005, 04:52 PM
I do also like the idea of trading our 1st pick for a 1st pick next year plus a 2nd rounder this year, if the situation is right :thumbup

We need playmakers now. We have a good track record in the first round, so there is no reason to think our pick won't make an impact. Let's not put off winning for another year.

YoungTexanFan
04-11-2005, 04:55 PM
i like the trade with philly, but instead of clayton taking matt jones and david bass. they should both be there and be great value picks like you were talking about.

D-ReK
04-11-2005, 05:00 PM
How is Matt Jones a "value pick"? He is great potential, that's undeniable, but he never even played a down a WR in college...He is in no way a sure thing...

keyfro
04-11-2005, 05:19 PM
i totally agree with the mark clayton comment...he is a much better route runner than anyone else in this draft and his hands are great

ComstockLode
04-11-2005, 05:20 PM
i totally agree with the mark clayton comment...he is a much better route runner than anyone else in this draft and his hands are great

He is also tiny.

Blake
04-11-2005, 05:30 PM
What would people think of grabing a player that falls, like one of the RB's, or Barron, or Thomas Davis, and Babin up for Heath Miller, or (insert name of player you like)?

It would take our second and two 3rds for someone like the Broncos 1st round pick, who are rumored to want to trade out of the 1st round for cap reasons.

So really we would only lose our 3rd round pick. The second 3rd round pick was from dallas.

edo783
04-11-2005, 06:31 PM
PLEASE not Barron or Benson!! I would like to trade down to late teens or very early 20s. Grab CB J. Miller or Davis. Move up to the bottom of the 1st and grab Bass and then work a deal to get Castillo. Might use up most of our draft, but they hit needs and are quality. Might even have a pick or two left to get Incogneto. I would be a happy camper with this.

Blake
04-11-2005, 06:41 PM
PLEASE not Barron or Benson!! I would like to trade down to late teens or very early 20s. Grab CB J. Miller or Davis. Move up to the bottom of the 1st and grab Bass and then work a deal to get Castillo. Might use up most of our draft, but they hit needs and are quality. Might even have a pick or two left to get Incogneto. I would be a happy camper with this.

You do know those are 3 first round graded players right? I mean, I dont even think we have enough firepower to move up twice.

Honoring Earl 34
04-11-2005, 07:23 PM
:thumbup If you trade into the twenties Clayton and Rogers will be gone . Clayton will benefit by the new coverage rules .
If you got the first twelve who's the second twelve .

edo783
04-11-2005, 09:38 PM
You do know those are 3 first round graded players right? I mean, I dont even think we have enough firepower to move up twice.


I think Rogers/Miller/Davis are first rounders (at variouse points), but Bass is a top of the 2nd/bottom of the first and Incogneto is a late second early 3rd. Tough to do......you betcha. Impossible, nope. We move down to get Miller or Davis (I doubt very much that Rogers is around) and up to get Bass and sell the rest to get a bottom of the second round player which should be someone like incogneto. I don't see it as any riskier than hoping late rounders play out. It does make the risk of failure more focused, but less likely on an individual basis. I have allways prefered quality to quantity.

Xman
04-11-2005, 09:43 PM
a 2nd, 3rd and a 4th for a mid 20s pick would cost a lot of potential depth, BUT - it would be worth it for a Pollack or a Clayton, maybe even a HMiller.

Moving down a couple of spots (and taking clayton), then moving up into the 20s (for HMiller) would really round out our offense (still a little weak at OLT and unsure at RB)

Of course, defense could work also: move up a couple of spots and get rolle, then spend the other picks on players to develop on the DL and at LB. Plus OL. This would mean no impact players (while Glenn still starts) but, next year, we would have a lot less holes to fill.

outofhnd
04-11-2005, 10:47 PM
Funny thing you mention Clayton and Williamson and WR with our pick.

Washington @#9 seems to be giving off the impression of going WR in the 1st round. they have worked out Williams, Williamson, and Clayton. have not really worked a corner out at this time.

I think we are looking at Ware. His projection is currently 11-15th overall.

wags
04-11-2005, 10:56 PM
Washington @#9 seems to be giving off the impression of going WR in the 1st round. they have worked out Williams, Williamson, and Clayton. have not really worked a corner out at this time.

They have worked out Rolle and Pac Man.

outofhnd
04-11-2005, 11:03 PM
yea but they have worked out willamson and Clayton 2 recievers that will definately be there they must feel that rolle is goin to miami or Tenn, and pacman is a cardinal or titan.

Man i love draft rumors. :heh:

Xman
04-11-2005, 11:07 PM
Ware may be like Dunta last year - moving up the charts about 10 days before the draft.

Washington does have a need at WR (Toomer provide a deep threat but losing coles and Gardner hurts), but CB seems to be weaker and more important to keep their defense so highly ranked (but Gibbs traded Champ so he might be happy with a 3rd rd CB).

I get a funny feeling that Benson is the one that will drop out of the top 12. He and DDavis would be an interesting tandem.

D-ReK
04-11-2005, 11:15 PM
Washington does have a need at WR (Toomer provide a deep threat but losing coles and Gardner hurts), but CB seems to be weaker and more important to keep their defense so highly ranked (but Gibbs traded Champ so he might be happy with a 3rd rd CB).

Amani Toomer plays for the Giants, not Redskins...

canadiantexan
04-11-2005, 11:40 PM
If we do trade I would like to see us trade down to 19 and pick up the second rounder for our 13. Then we could send the second from St.louis (390) and the third from the cowboys (225) plus our fourth (78) for the 26th overall pick (700). That would give us number 19 overall, number 26 overall, number 47 overall and number 78 on day one. With that I would like to see something like this.
Number 19 - Spears could be the guy to give the defense the jump it needs.
Number 26 -David Baas will help stabalize o-line for years to come .
Number 47 -Matt Jones big,fast and has great hands. His time at quarterback should help him pick up route running faster. You could also try him at tight end I personally think he could be a dominate tight end (strong enough to block).
Number 78 -Glenn's replacemnt.
If you went WR with 19 (Clayton or Williamson) then instead of Matt Jones you could take Crowder(LB) in the second. Also I would love to see OT Nick Kaczur with pick #204 great value, good ol Canadian boy.

michaelm
04-12-2005, 01:38 AM
He is also tiny.


according to NFL Draft Countdown:
Mark Clayton -5'10" 193


according to espn.com:
Steve Smith - 5'9" 185
Laveranues Coles - 5'11" 193
Deion Branch - 5'9" 193
Troy Brown - 5'10" 196
Lee Evans -5'10" 197
Santana Moss -5'10" 185

I wouldn't mind having a single one of these guys as our #2... well, not T. Brown because of age, but you get my point...

D-ReK
04-12-2005, 01:42 AM
Clayton's size won't make a huge difference in the NFL with the increased coverage rules...Bigger CBs won't be able to maul him...Comstock just doesn't like Clayton because he went to OU :heh:

outofhnd
04-12-2005, 01:46 AM
I like everyone but Steve Smith and Santana Moss.

Steve Smith has to prove he can do it without mushin muhammed oppisite him making defenses pay for doubling him.

Santana i just dont think hes that good. He is fast, but I dont watch enough Jet games to see him fighting for the ball or running into a crowd or risking hisbody for the catch. i see him relying on his speed to out run the defense, I like physical recievers though so i am a lil biased.

rittenhouserobz
04-12-2005, 06:53 AM
If we do trade I would like to see us trade down to 19 and pick up the second rounder for our 13. Then we could send the second from St.louis (390) and the third from the cowboys (225) plus our fourth (78) for the 26th overall pick (700). That would give us number 19 overall, number 26 overall, number 47 overall and number 78 on day one. With that I would like to see something like this.
Number 19 - Spears could be the guy to give the defense the jump it needs.
Number 26 -David Baas will help stabalize o-line for years to come .
Number 47 -Matt Jones big,fast and has great hands. His time at quarterback should help him pick up route running faster. You could also try him at tight end I personally think he could be a dominate tight end (strong enough to block).
Number 78 -Glenn's replacemnt.
If you went WR with 19 (Clayton or Williamson) then instead of Matt Jones you could take Crowder(LB) in the second. Also I would love to see OT Nick Kaczur with pick #204 great value, good ol Canadian boy.

Finding Glenns replacement should not be happening with the 78th pick in the draft.

Xman
04-12-2005, 09:08 AM
Amani Toomer plays for the Giants, not Redskins...
__________________

I meant S. Moss

Xman
04-12-2005, 09:49 AM
If we do trade I would like to see us trade down to 19 and pick up the second rounder for our 13. Then we could send the second from St.louis (390) and the third from the cowboys (225) plus our fourth (78) for the 26th overall pick (700). That would give us number 19 overall, number 26 overall, number 47 overall and number 78 on day one. With that I would like to see something like this.
Number 19 - Spears could be the guy to give the defense the jump it needs.
Number 26 -David Baas will help stabalize o-line for years to come .
Number 47 -Matt Jones big,fast and has great hands. His time at quarterback should help him pick up route running faster. You could also try him at tight end I personally think he could be a dominate tight end (strong enough to block).
Number 78 -Glenn's replacemnt.
If you went WR with 19 (Clayton or Williamson) then instead of Matt Jones you could take Crowder(LB) in the second. Also I would love to see OT Nick Kaczur with pick #204 great value, good ol Canadian boy.


GOOD IDEAS - 3 impact players
I like the trades - I might prefer:
19: Spears could work - but, I think Cody (USC) is going to be something special. Also, Clayton, Pollack or CRogers would be impossible to pass up.
26: HMiller would be a huge value pick at 26.
47: If we haven't already picked a WR, Brown out of Georgia. Otherwise, one of the CBs (since the draft is so deep we should get a good one here). Possibly CSpencer (C Miss.) could be nice value also.
78: I agree that a decent CB could be had here, if we didn't manage to get a better one. Otherwise, OL/DL to develop.

canadiantexan
04-12-2005, 11:29 AM
I also like Cody and would have no problem if he is our guy. Miller at 26 would also be great and would certainly help the passing game as he would force the defense to account for him. Brown at 47 could end up being the steal of the draft, and I agree if you dont get a corner earlier or there is not one you like at 78 then we shore up the lines. In other words I like your draft and would love to see these guys come to the best city in America (Houston of course)

royce1054
04-12-2005, 12:34 PM
I like the trade. It does work. It is something i feel both teams want. If the Pace deal would of happened its who they would of takenWell Spears wont make it past 12 thats the 1st thing i would want to mention
this prime area for a Darryl Blackstock or a Demarcus Ware.
If we do back up which i doubt will happen but i wouldnt rule out.. I think we depth at too many positions. Draft picks in 1st 4 round usually make the team. We can get good talent and depth in this years draft for depth and future starters. This is why i think we trade down and then stay put. I An xtra 3rd would be perfect for a solid CB, S, RB and so on. I would be happy either way though.

michaelm
04-12-2005, 02:29 PM
I like everyone but Steve Smith and Santana Moss.

Steve Smith has to prove he can do it without mushin muhammed oppisite him making defenses pay for doubling him.

Santana i just dont think hes that good. He is fast, but I dont watch enough Jet games to see him fighting for the ball or running into a crowd or risking hisbody for the catch. i see him relying on his speed to out run the defense, I like physical recievers though so i am a lil biased.

I may or may not agree with you on these two players, but the comparison is different...

we would have a similar player (clayton) as a compliment to AJ. If we had s. smith, he would not have to prove he could do it alone, he would have a far better #1 beside him than Muhammed IMO...
basically the same can be said for moss.

I'm not advocating having any of these palyers on our squad, just drawing a size comparison and saying that clayton could produce positioned beside AJ.

canadiantexan
04-13-2005, 12:50 AM
If I had no choice but to trade up I would get in the top 5 and take D.J. for sure. He seems like the only "sure thing" (although there never is ) in the draft. He would also be perfect for our system, it could really make him bloom into a dominate defender in this league. Not to mention a Texas football player his whole life. However after saying all this I still think we should trade down a few this year pick up the extra picks like in my earlier post then trade up next year for that final piece to the playoff puzzle next year.

Mr Shush
04-13-2005, 11:28 AM
I really don't think there's a cat in Hell's chance of Jones still being there at 47. He may be a bust (although I don't think he will), but he could also turn out to be a game-changer of Randy Moss proportions, and someone will take a flier on him in the bottom half of the first because of it. I expect the Eagles to trade up a few spots to take him before the Steelers can.

Blake
04-13-2005, 04:28 PM
I really don't think there's a cat in Hell's chance of Jones still being there at 47. He may be a bust (although I don't think he will), but he could also turn out to be a game-changer of Randy Moss proportions, and someone will take a flier on him in the bottom half of the first because of it. I expect the Eagles to trade up a few spots to take him before the Steelers can.

I disagree. I see him going in the 2nd round. I dont see many people taking a chance like that with their draft.

Unless a team trades down and gets extra picks, and selects him in the 1st. thats the only way i see him going top 32.
JMHO

canadiantexan
04-13-2005, 05:03 PM
I really don't think there's a cat in Hell's chance of Jones still being there at 47. He may be a bust (although I don't think he will), but he could also turn out to be a game-changer of Randy Moss proportions, and someone will take a flier on him in the bottom half of the first because of it. I expect the Eagles to trade up a few spots to take him before the Steelers can.

To many good WR prospects for him to go first round. I still think he's a 2nd rounder.