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J_R
01-06-2011, 01:32 PM
Will not declare for the NFL Draft

http://twitter.com/#!/BryanDFischer/status/23098923170136064

Rey
01-06-2011, 01:39 PM
Damn...

That might suck for us...

Good players just moved up a slot...

HOU-TEX
01-06-2011, 01:46 PM
Good for him. It's nice seeing a player not out for the money every once in a while. With Harbaugh likely leaving it's doubtful the Cardinal will be as good. A rookie pay scale will probably be in place when he comes out too.

MFG16
01-06-2011, 01:46 PM
Carolina Announces they will pick Luck with the first pick if he declares for the draft...

Luck decides to stay at Stanfod. Insert Facepalm here.

Stemp
01-06-2011, 01:46 PM
Smart move.

kiwitexansfan
01-06-2011, 01:52 PM
WOW, worst QB class EVER.

Feel sorry for all those teams desperately needing a QB.

Kolb and Young's trade value just went up.

Blake
01-06-2011, 01:55 PM
I wonder how much Stanford is paying him. :P

Doppelganger
01-06-2011, 02:00 PM
Smart move.

VERY bad move if you ask me. Look at Jake Locker last year. He was in the running for a top 5 pick. Instead he went back to school and is now looking like a late first early 2nd rounder. That means a loss of MILLIONS of dollars. Without Harbaugh(if he leaves) the offense may change and Luck's numbers may decrease.

If you are the #1 pick in the draft you MUST go. If you want to finish school and get your degree, great, you can do it in the offseason, just like Vonta Leach did.

A VERY bad decision in my mind.

Doppelganger
01-06-2011, 02:01 PM
Good for him. It's nice seeing a player not out for the money every once in a while. With Harbaugh likely leaving it's doubtful the Cardinal will be as good. A rookie pay scale will probably be in place when he comes out too.

That's why its a bad decision.

beerlover
01-06-2011, 02:02 PM
VERY bad move if you ask me. Look at Jake Locker last year. He was in the running for a top 5 pick. Instead he went back to school and is now looking like a late first early 2nd rounder. That means a loss of MILLIONS of dollars. Without Harbaugh(if he leaves) the offense may change and Luck's numbers may decrease.

If you are the #1 pick in the draft you MUST go. If you want to finish school and get your degree, great, you can do it in the offseason, just like Vonta Leach did.

A VERY bad decision in my mind.

makes Jake possibly the 1st QB taken afterall :bubbles:

Rey
01-06-2011, 02:05 PM
VERY bad move if you ask me. Look at Jake Locker last year. He was in the running for a top 5 pick. Instead he went back to school and is now looking like a late first early 2nd rounder. That means a loss of MILLIONS of dollars. Without Harbaugh(if he leaves) the offense may change and Luck's numbers may decrease.

If you are the #1 pick in the draft you MUST go. If you want to finish school and get your degree, great, you can do it in the offseason, just like Vonta Leach did.

A VERY bad decision in my mind.

Gonna have to agree here...

If you are the top pick in the draft then you are most likely going to a bad team...That's not a good reason to stay in school...

ChampionTexan
01-06-2011, 02:10 PM
VERY bad move if you ask me. Look at Jake Locker last year. He was in the running for a top 5 pick. Instead he went back to school and is now looking like a late first early 2nd rounder. That means a loss of MILLIONS of dollars. Without Harbaugh(if he leaves) the offense may change and Luck's numbers may decrease.

If you are the #1 pick in the draft you MUST go. If you want to finish school and get your degree, great, you can do it in the offseason, just like Vonta Leach did.

A VERY bad decision in my mind.

On one hand, these types of decisions have worked out poorly in the past. You mention Locker, and two other prominent examples of a decision like this backfiring (from a monetary/business standpoint) would be Matt Leinart and Dave Ragone.

On the other hand, from everything I hear (at least from sources I trust), Andrew Luck is the real deal, and shouldn't have to worry about "being exposed" by coming back for another year. It did after all work out okay for Sam Bradford, and I believe that as good as Bradford is - or looks like he will be, Luck's still a better prospect than he was and is.

Don't know if this says anything about Harbaugh's likelihood of taking the Dolphins (or some other NFL) job, but even if he leaves, I would think that Stanford would put maximizing Andrew Luck's impact on the W-L record as the first and foremost quality they'd be looking for in a new HC.

Doppelganger
01-06-2011, 02:13 PM
On one hand, these types of decisions have worked out poorly in the past. You mention Locker, and two other prominent examples of a decision like this backfiring (from a monetary/business standpoint) would be Matt Leinart and Dave Ragone.

On the other hand, from everything I hear (at least from sources I trust), Andrew Luck is the real deal, and shouldn't have to worry about "being exposed" by coming back for another year. It did after all work out okay for Sam Bradford, and I believe that as good as Bradford is - or looks like he will be, Luck's still a better prospect than he was and is.

Don't know if this says anything about Harbaugh's likelihood of taking the Dolphins (or some other NFL) job, but even if he leaves, I would think that Stanford would put maximizing Andrew Luck's impact on the W-L record as the first and foremost quality they'd be looking for in a new HC.

And Sam Bradford was injured in his last season in college. Sure, it worked out for him. But football is a violent game and injuries can happen at any time. Its better to sustain an injury when you are being paid millions than in college not getting paid millions.

Doppelganger
01-06-2011, 02:14 PM
makes Jake possibly the 1st QB taken afterall :bubbles:

Possibly, but I don't see him as #1 overall or even a top 20 player. I think the first QB now taken is Newton followed by Mallet, and then the surging Gabbert.

Ole Miss Texan
01-06-2011, 02:15 PM
Interesting. I understand his decision... especially considering he's getting a Stanford degree. However, I think it's a bad move on his part. $60 Million guaranteed.

beerlover
01-06-2011, 02:18 PM
Interesting. I understand his decision... especially considering he's getting a Stanford degree. However, I think it's a bad move on his part. $60 Million guaranteed.

His dad was huge in decision process I'm sure he wanted Andrew to get his degree first. I'm going to enjoy watching him play next year @ Stanford :)

Blake
01-06-2011, 02:19 PM
Good call andrew. I hate gobs and gobs of money too.

Sincerely,
Jake Locker

Stemp
01-06-2011, 02:22 PM
If all you care about is the cash, then yeah, it may be the wrong decision.
However, the kid is going to graduate with a degree from Stanford and if there is an NFL lockout, he's going to look very smart. If there isn't a lockout, one of the big changes is probably a rookie wage scale and it will probably be implemented this year, which means he'd still be under it if he declares.

So IMO....
Stanford degree plus possible lower draft slot > No degree with a possible (probable?) NFL lockout.

Rey
01-06-2011, 02:25 PM
If all you care about is the cash, then yeah, it may be the wrong decision.
However, the kid is going to graduate with a degree from Stanford and if there is an NFL lockout, he's going to look very smart. If there isn't a lockout, one of the big changes is probably a rookie wage scale and it will probably be implemented this year, which means he'd still be under it if he declares.

So IMO....
Stanford degree plus possible lower draft slot > No degree with a possible (probable?) NFL lockout.

If he declared and there was a lock out why wouldn't he be able to finish school anyways?

Whats wrong with being a millionaire AND taking classes and getting your degree from Stanford???

Yankee_In_TX
01-06-2011, 02:26 PM
= Harbaugh staying at Stanford?

The1ApplePie
01-06-2011, 02:30 PM
Good call andrew. I hate gobs and gobs of money too.

Sincerely,
Jake Locker

I like banging gobs and gobs of college chicks too.

Sincerely,
Matt Leinart

Dutchrudder
01-06-2011, 02:32 PM
Interesting... This might push up the QBs in the draft. Number 1 overall could now be Mallet or Locker. It will be interesting to see what the QB needy teams do because there aren't any other QBs worth the #1 pick in this draft, probably not even top 6 but there will be reaches.

Rey
01-06-2011, 02:33 PM
Interesting... This might push up the QBs in the draft. Number 1 overall could now be Mallet or Locker. It will be interesting to see what the QB needy teams do because there aren't any other QBs worth the #1 pick in this draft, probably not even top 6 but there will be reaches.

I think Peterson might be the #1 overall now.

I thnk QB needy teams will probably go with some of the Free agent guys that are around as stop gap type guys...

GP
01-06-2011, 02:38 PM
Imagine all of the first downs Cam Newton could have ran for, as a Texans player, than Matt could begin to even dream about running for.

If Newton falls to 10, Houston should grab him. One day, Matt's going to take a lick and not keep ticking. Tell Orly to hit the bricks or stay as 3rd QB. This puts your RB and your QB future in great hands. It gives Newton the towel and the clipboard for the first year. But let's face it, teams are not nearly as willing to sit a rookie QB as they once were (If you are Newton, you want a chance to play immediately, not later).

Some don't think Newton will be anything special. I disagree. The stuff I have seen from him, in midst of all the drama with his dad, tells me gobs and gobs about Newton's ability to handle pressure.

And he can run. :salivating:

But he won't last to 10, and we wouldn't take him anyways. It'd be a project pick, a mis-used pick considering we have Schaub, and now we have to use that pick on whatever Wade thinks will make the defense better....which is probably the best bet.

JB
01-06-2011, 02:44 PM
= Harbaugh staying at Stanford?

Good question! That may very well have been the deciding factor.

Stemp
01-06-2011, 02:49 PM
If he declared and there was a lock out why wouldn't he be able to finish school anyways?

Whats wrong with being a millionaire AND taking classes and getting your degree from Stanford???

Once you declare and get an agent, you can't be on scholarship. If there is a lockout, he won't get paid becuase owners aren't going to sign the contracts till they know what the new CBA entails.
Once the new CBA is certified, he'll have to pull out of school to begin training.

Yankee_In_TX
01-06-2011, 02:50 PM
Good call andrew. I hate gobs and gobs of money too.

Sincerely,
Jake Locker

LMAO x 1

Yankee_In_TX
01-06-2011, 02:54 PM
I like banging gobs and gobs of college chicks too.

Sincerely,
Matt Leinart

LMAO x 2

scourge
01-06-2011, 02:59 PM
There was speculation that Vick left early to avoid being picked by the expansion Texans the following year. I don't believe that was the major factor in the slightest, just saying.

If anything, if he wanted to come out and not play for Carolina he could have pulled an Elway/Eli, where he said flat out he would not sign with them if selected.

Nawzer
01-06-2011, 03:01 PM
Surprising decision by Luck. I fully expected him to declare for the draft. I guess his advisors told him something to convince him to stay. No doubt he's a smart guy and he's thought this thing through. Panthers will probably try to trade down now unless someone comes along and blows them away.

Ole Miss Texan
01-06-2011, 03:06 PM
Take the $50MM+ guaranteed money and finish your degree in the offseasons.
The risk/reward here is pretty cut and dry to me. It's not being selfish/materialistic... it's being smart.

You're 21 years old and would be set for life. You can finish your degree in the offseasons. The risks going back to school are (i) injury resulting in no longer being able to play (ii) injury/poor play that pushes you down in the draft. Both of those could cost you at least $40-$50 MILLION dollars.

If you do declare and there's a lockout, the Draft still occurs. You'd still be a, if not THE, top overall selection and would get paid accordingly. If there's no season and you don't get paid, go back to school and finish your degree. If you or your family can't afford the 1 year tuition, take out a student loan. I know plenty of banks would loan Andrew Luck $50K. Then when the CBA is settled, you'd get paid to whatever agreement/scale there is... but you'd still be getting paid the most out of everyone.

If you do declare and there is not a lockout, he'd be getting at least $50MM guaranteed.

I feel the risk far outweighs the reward by staying in school. At this point you have to make a sound financial decision. Nobody is saying don't finish your degree. Finishing his last year of school would be a must in my book... it would just happen a little later than the plan.

HTown2ATX
01-06-2011, 03:19 PM
I like banging gobs and gobs of college chicks too.

Sincerely,
Matt Leinart


^^ Exactly :drool:

kiwitexansfan
01-06-2011, 03:22 PM
Maybe he is a guy who doesn't think football and money is the be all and end all of life.

Which possibly means he might not be the sure thing that everyone expects.

BullNation4Life
01-06-2011, 03:25 PM
I love how folks dog him for not "taking the money" but fail to realize, he isn't you and you are in nor will ever be in the same situation Andrew Luck is in to make that kind of decision. Kid is already a millionaire, he can afford to make a calculated risk and stay in school for another year. Quite sure Daddy Luck will take out a policy on his son to secure his financial future incase of injury.

Gonna enjoy watching him next year...

Blake
01-06-2011, 03:37 PM
I love how folks dog him for not "taking the money" but fail to realize, he isn't you and you are in nor will ever be in the same situation Andrew Luck is in to make that kind of decision. Kid is already a millionaire, he can afford to make a calculated risk and stay in school for another year. Quite sure Daddy Luck will take out a policy on his son to secure his financial future incase of injury.

Gonna enjoy watching him next year...

I dont think anyone is dogging him or whatever. Just giving our opinions. And obviously we aren't him, and are not in his shoes. Hell, we aren't in Bob McNair's shoes either but we have no problem telling him what to do.

Yankee_In_TX
01-06-2011, 03:56 PM
I love how folks dog him for not "taking the money" but fail to realize, he isn't you and you are in nor will ever be in the same situation Andrew Luck is in to make that kind of decision. Kid is already a millionaire, he can afford to make a calculated risk and stay in school for another year. Quite sure Daddy Luck will take out a policy on his son to secure his financial future incase of injury.

Gonna enjoy watching him next year...

I liked after the game when the reporter asked him about the hard decision he had to face, and he said something like 'I can think of a lot harder things you have to decide in life.'

keyser
01-06-2011, 03:56 PM
OK, I say this as a college professor, who obviously has a high opinion of the value of a college eduction...

This is a dumb move by Luck.

He was almost guaranteed of the first overall draft spot. That's worth (tens of) millions of dollars, and the value should only go down (possibly precipitously) by staying longer. That's true regardless of the rookie wage scale that might or might not be implemented.

There are a couple of main values in a college degree. One is for job-related training. If Luck's primary goal in life is to pursue the career (architecture?) that his degree would let him pursue, then maybe it would make sense, but I find it hard to believe that's the case. Almost certainly, the value of his initial NFL contract as a #1 pick has higher financial value than a lifetime spent in pursuit of the career his degree would enable. Plus, going to the NFL does not prevent him from getting his degree, as several others have done, it just makes it tougher. Other reasons for getting the college degree tend to be less tangible, and though I'd argue that things like showing you can complete something started, being exposed to a wider range of material requiring deeper thinking, etc. are all very valuable, I don't think they're worth risking tens of millions of dollars for, nor are they things that are impossible to get in other ways.

With that said, I think Peyton Manning faced a similar situation, and decided to stay in school - it seems to have worked out more than OK for him. Or, maybe he really didn't want to go to Carolina, or has a significant other at Stanford that he can't bear to be away from for a year, or some other very personal reason that other people can't really judge. So, it's not necessarily a bad move, and it might work out just fine for him, but it certainly seems to be an unwise risk to take, from any objective viewpoint.

Ole Miss Texan
01-06-2011, 04:20 PM
OK, I say this as a college professor, who obviously has a high opinion of the value of a college eduction...

This is a dumb move by Luck.

He was almost guaranteed of the first overall draft spot. That's worth (tens of) millions of dollars, and the value should only go down (possibly precipitously) by staying longer. That's true regardless of the rookie wage scale that might or might not be implemented.

There are a couple of main values in a college degree. One is for job-related training. If Luck's primary goal in life is to pursue the career (architecture?) that his degree would let him pursue, then maybe it would make sense, but I find it hard to believe that's the case. Almost certainly, the value of his initial NFL contract as a #1 pick has higher financial value than a lifetime spent in pursuit of the career his degree would enable. Plus, going to the NFL does not prevent him from getting his degree, as several others have done, it just makes it tougher. Other reasons for getting the college degree tend to be less tangible, and though I'd argue that things like showing you can complete something started, being exposed to a wider range of material requiring deeper thinking, etc. are all very valuable, I don't think they're worth risking tens of millions of dollars for, nor are they things that are impossible to get in other ways.
Great post Keyser. Going on the career notion you brought up. Let's just say Luck goes NFL, plays 5-6 years. He wouldn't just be a just any millionare.. he'd have likely earned close to $80 million. By that point the guy is 27 years old. SERIOUSLY. I'd think he'd have finished his degree in the offseason by that point, if not take a year and finish: now he's 28. He has a really great shot at landing at a top architecure firm regardless (now) or after a 'brief' nfl career. So go work for a firm for a few years and learn the ropes. Say he works 10 years. Now he's 37-38 years old with 10 years of experience in the field and a huge BANKROLL to use as capital if he wants to start his own company.

Another point you bring up though are some of the intangibles of college. Staying for his senior year, living that undergraduate life, playing college ball and hopefully making it to the National Championship or Rose Bowl would be really great. There's a lot to be said about enjoying the college experience.

I hope it works out for the best, no matter what he decides. He sounds like a bright young kid.

gtexan02
01-06-2011, 04:22 PM
Wow, I thought Stanford kids were supposed to be brilliant.

They don't do a good job educating their kids in finance. What a horrible move. Guaranteed to be the 1st overall pick, now who knows?

NitroGSXR
01-06-2011, 04:28 PM
I bet he declares. Plenty of time for him to change his mind.

MojoX
01-06-2011, 04:43 PM
Imagine all of the first downs Cam Newton could have ran for, as a Texans player, than Matt could begin to even dream about running for.

If Newton falls to 10, Houston should grab him. One day, Matt's going to take a lick and not keep ticking. Tell Orly to hit the bricks or stay as 3rd QB. This puts your RB and your QB future in great hands. It gives Newton the towel and the clipboard for the first year. But let's face it, teams are not nearly as willing to sit a rookie QB as they once were (If you are Newton, you want a chance to play immediately, not later).

Some don't think Newton will be anything special. I disagree. The stuff I have seen from him, in midst of all the drama with his dad, tells me gobs and gobs about Newton's ability to handle pressure.

And he can run. :salivating:

But he won't last to 10, and we wouldn't take him anyways. It'd be a project pick, a mis-used pick considering we have Schaub, and now we have to use that pick on whatever Wade thinks will make the defense better....which is probably the best bet.
I've been thinking this same thing. While the team needs defensive help badly, an upgrade at signal caller is something you don't turn your nose up at. If someone special falls, you take him. BPA.

McNair has stated that Phillips has broken down game film telling McNair how the defense can be corrected without a ton of personnel changes. I hope that means the team isn't so zeroed in on defense with the first pick that they will turn away a special QB. (Mind you Schaub will be 30 next season, anyway.)

BullNation4Life
01-06-2011, 04:50 PM
OK, I say this as a college professor, who obviously has a high opinion of the value of a college eduction...

This is a dumb move by Luck.

He was almost guaranteed of the first overall draft spot. That's worth (tens of) millions of dollars, and the value should only go down (possibly precipitously) by staying longer. That's true regardless of the rookie wage scale that might or might not be implemented.

There are a couple of main values in a college degree. One is for job-related training. If Luck's primary goal in life is to pursue the career (architecture?) that his degree would let him pursue, then maybe it would make sense, but I find it hard to believe that's the case. Almost certainly, the value of his initial NFL contract as a #1 pick has higher financial value than a lifetime spent in pursuit of the career his degree would enable. Plus, going to the NFL does not prevent him from getting his degree, as several others have done, it just makes it tougher. Other reasons for getting the college degree tend to be less tangible, and though I'd argue that things like showing you can complete something started, being exposed to a wider range of material requiring deeper thinking, etc. are all very valuable, I don't think they're worth risking tens of millions of dollars for, nor are they things that are impossible to get in other ways.

With that said, I think Peyton Manning faced a similar situation, and decided to stay in school - it seems to have worked out more than OK for him. Or, maybe he really didn't want to go to Carolina, or has a significant other at Stanford that he can't bear to be away from for a year, or some other very personal reason that other people can't really judge. So, it's not necessarily a bad move, and it might work out just fine for him, but it certainly seems to be an unwise risk to take, from any objective viewpoint.

I don't think you are speaking as a professor, more like a football fan. An educator would never tell a student "Leave school and go for the money!"

Which is why I disagree totally. When his daddy takes out a 25-30 million dollar insurance policy, and I'll bet you your professor pay check he does just that, in case he gets hurt, he still gets paid. Of course 25 isn't 50 million but 25 million is just fine for being an architect from Stanford...

It is a calculated risk that he could afford to make which is why I don't think it was dumb at all...

Blake
01-06-2011, 04:57 PM
When his daddy takes out a 25-30 million dollar insurance policy, and I'll bet you your professor pay check he does just that, in case he gets hurt, he still gets paid. Of course 25 isn't 50 million but 25 million is just fine for being an architect from Stanford...


30 million dollar insurance policy? Do you realize that would cost about a million dollars?

Rams No. 1 draft pick Sam Bradford carried insurance policy valued at up to $10 million

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2010/05/17/story1.html?b=1274068800^3354471

MojoX
01-06-2011, 05:23 PM
I don't think you are speaking as a professor, more like a football fan. An educator would never tell a student "Leave school and go for the money!"

Which is why I disagree totally. When his daddy takes out a 25-30 million dollar insurance policy, and I'll bet you your professor pay check he does just that, in case he gets hurt, he still gets paid. Of course 25 isn't 50 million but 25 million is just fine for being an architect from Stanford...

It is a calculated risk that he could afford to make which is why I don't think it was dumb at all...
He is probably also weighing his career prospects getting drafted by the Panthers versus some other organization. He also has to consider what it means if there is a lockout this year. Between the three, including the $10 million in insurance money in case of injury, waiting another season may be a good call.

At any rate, the kid is set in life with or without the NFL.

JB
01-06-2011, 05:32 PM
Didn't Manning (Peyton that is) also get a lot of derision for staying in school for his senior year?

keyser
01-06-2011, 07:00 PM
I don't think you are speaking as a professor, more like a football fan. An educator would never tell a student "Leave school and go for the money!"

Seriously? Being a football fan has nothing to do with it - I'd say the same thing if he was a soccer player (which I care nothing about), or (to put it closer to home) if he'd developed a computer program that someone was willing to pay him $50 million for now, or he could wait for a year and know that the amount he would get for that could only go down in a year's time. It's a matter of weighing what he gets out of staying in school for a year and the money on the other side. The amount of money he's putting at risk negates any of the financial benefit from college, and I think that it is hard to justify the intangible benefits, also, unless there's something major we don't know about.

Education is certainly valuable, but an educator who thinks that one year of college is worth risking tens of millions of dollars for has an extremely lopsided sense of the value of an education! There's a lot more to life than education (and just to be clear, there are certainly more important things than money, also). And to reiterate, if education is what he wants, this does not prevent him from getting it. He can finish (as many others have done) later.

As I said before, if his main goal in life is to become an architect, then maybe this is the right choice. I have heard of football players (not #1 choices) who want to become doctors and go do medical mission work, for instance. If those are major life goals, or if (like I said) there are some other particularly personal factors that make him want to stay longer, then fine. But, I don't get the idea that that's the case here - it sounds like he wants/plans to play in the NFL. And, he's chosen to risk tens of millions of dollars so that he can have fun for a year.

To get personal, I've had graduate students who have received job offers that would mean leaving school, and my advice has varied from encouraging them to continue with grad school to taking the job. Sometimes a great opportunity comes along - the type of opportunity that would be your best case job even after finishing the degree - and it makes much more sense to take that opportunity, which might have a limited window of opportunity. I still remember when a friend of mine in grad school left our Ph.D. program in the late-90s to join this quirky startup called Google. At the time, I felt he was foolish (I thought "why should a search engine make money?!?!"), but I think that I was clearly wrong, there.

Which is why I disagree totally. When his daddy takes out a 25-30 million dollar insurance policy, and I'll bet you your professor pay check he does just that, in case he gets hurt, he still gets paid. Of course 25 isn't 50 million but 25 million is just fine for being an architect from Stanford...

It is a calculated risk that he could afford to make which is why I don't think it was dumb at all...

You're right that an insurance policy will help keep him from losing all money. But, those insurance policies guard against disability, as I understand it. There can be a lot of things that will drop his draft position, both in and out of his control. Maybe he doesn't get seriously hurt to collect disability, but has a few small injuries and develops a reputation of being "fragile." Maybe a new coach at Stanford puts in a system where he looks poor. Maybe a new coach has a major personality clash with him, and he develops a reputation as a complainer. Maybe his luck runs out, and he comes out more average in performance this year. Maybe he makes some off-field mistake next year that hurts his reputation. Even going from #1 to #10 could cost him tens of millions of dollars, or more if he were to drop even farther.

I'll say that I don't know exactly how the lockout might play into things, and he may have had some more expert advice in that regard that makes coming out this year riskier than it seems. Maybe he feels he is not mature enough to go to the NFL or something (if that's the case, then I'd question his fitness as a #1-worthy pick anyway...). There are a lot of reasons that he might decide he wants to wait. But, basically he's risking tens of millions of dollars so that he can enjoy his last year of undergraduate school, and that does not seem a wise choice.

MojoX
01-06-2011, 09:52 PM
Didn't Manning (Peyton that is) also get a lot of derision for staying in school for his senior year?

LZ tweets he thinks Luck is following Peyton's advice for QBs as Peyton feels staying in school is good for a QBs development. Something worth considering.

Texecutioner
01-06-2011, 10:31 PM
Luck is a dumbass then. Sorry, but this move might make him seem like the smart well rounded guy and all, but it's not making him that at all. It will probably push his draft status back in the next off season as he won't be as coveted in the next off season. There have been a ton of cases where QB's waited an extra year and lost out on a ton of money by doing that. When you're the highest coveted QB coming into the draft and all of that signing bonus money is on the line potentially, you cash it in while you can get it. There will never be a guarantee that you'll ever see a big contract like that ever again or even another one at all. Ask Jamarcus Russell. He at least cashed in and made out like bandit when his name was hot and became the #1 draft pick even though he was never deserving of it off of what he did in college. Matt Leinart was a shoe in to be the #1 pick and waited and lost out on probably 20 Million guaranteed dollars. To much money on the line here. You cash in your ticket while it's available.

Dutchrudder
01-06-2011, 11:38 PM
LZ tweets he thinks Luck is following Peyton's advice for QBs as Peyton feels staying in school is good for a QBs development. Something worth considering.

If Jim Harbaugh and some of his staff leaves, which is looking more and more likely, then there's no telling who will come in to 'develop' him next year. If Harbaugh was staying, I wouldn't take issue with it, but with him leaving he's taking on a lot of uncertainty.

MojoX
01-07-2011, 12:03 AM
If Jim Harbaugh and some of his staff leaves, which is looking more and more likely, then there's no telling who will come in to 'develop' him next year. If Harbaugh was staying, I wouldn't take issue with it, but with him leaving he's taking on a lot of uncertainty.

Good point.

silvrhand
01-07-2011, 12:53 AM
Imagine all of the first downs Cam Newton could have ran for, as a Texans player, than Matt could begin to even dream about running for.

If Newton falls to 10, Houston should grab him. One day, Matt's going to take a lick and not keep ticking. Tell Orly to hit the bricks or stay as 3rd QB. This puts your RB and your QB future in great hands. It gives Newton the towel and the clipboard for the first year. But let's face it, teams are not nearly as willing to sit a rookie QB as they once were (If you are Newton, you want a chance to play immediately, not later).

Some don't think Newton will be anything special. I disagree. The stuff I have seen from him, in midst of all the drama with his dad, tells me gobs and gobs about Newton's ability to handle pressure.

And he can run. :salivating:

But he won't last to 10, and we wouldn't take him anyways. It'd be a project pick, a mis-used pick considering we have Schaub, and now we have to use that pick on whatever Wade thinks will make the defense better....which is probably the best bet.

Name me one running QB that has ever won a superbowl?

BullNation4Life
01-07-2011, 07:40 AM
He is probably also weighing his career prospects getting drafted by the Panthers versus some other organization. He also has to consider what it means if there is a lockout this year. Between the three, including the $10 million in insurance money in case of injury, waiting another season may be a good call.

At any rate, the kid is set in life with or without the NFL.

You know I was thinking about this on the way into work. What if this is another Archie/Eli Manning situation with SD? Archie did NOT want Eli in San Diego because of the organization. So instead of the Lucks making it a big hoopla in the media, Oliver Luck tells his boy stay another year and take our chances with another team who is not in such turmoil. They get an insurance policy if he get injured and life goes on. Andrew Luck will be THE guy to look at for the Heisman and if he wins, stock stays the same, if not he probably goes to a better team anyway, win-win...

I mean let's face it, Andrew Luck goes to Carolina, he is going to have his arse handed to him because their O-Line is horrible. Now Luck looks like a 1st pick bust and has to "David Carr" it over in Carolina.

BullNation4Life
01-07-2011, 07:42 AM
If Jim Harbaugh and some of his staff leaves, which is looking more and more likely, then there's no telling who will come in to 'develop' him next year. If Harbaugh was staying, I wouldn't take issue with it, but with him leaving he's taking on a lot of uncertainty.

Good point unless they give it to one of his coordinators and he keeps running the same system. We'll have to wait and see...

Rey
01-07-2011, 08:23 AM
Once you declare and get an agent, you can't be on scholarship. If there is a lockout, he won't get paid becuase owners aren't going to sign the contracts till they know what the new CBA entails.
Once the new CBA is certified, he'll have to pull out of school to begin training.

I get that...

I'm saying why wouldn't he be able to finish school at some point anyways?

Ole Miss Texan
01-07-2011, 09:57 AM
You know I was thinking about this on the way into work. What if this is another Archie/Eli Manning situation with SD? Archie did NOT want Eli in San Diego because of the organization. So instead of the Lucks making it a big hoopla in the media, Oliver Luck tells his boy stay another year and take our chances with another team who is not in such turmoil. They get an insurance policy if he get injured and life goes on. Andrew Luck will be THE guy to look at for the Heisman and if he wins, stock stays the same, if not he probably goes to a better team anyway, win-win...

I mean let's face it, Andrew Luck goes to Carolina, he is going to have his arse handed to him because their O-Line is horrible. Now Luck looks like a 1st pick bust and has to "David Carr" it over in Carolina.

I think there's something to be said for Peyton/Eli following Archie's lead... and Andrew following his dad's lead.

In regards to Carolina: This is no different year in and year out. Look at Bradford to St. Louis, Stafford to Detroit, Russell to Oakland, Smith to San Francisco. My point is that being the #1 pick in any year is not the best situation to be in as far as going to a good team. They're generally the teams that have only won 1 or 2 or 3 games the previous season. Many times it's that team has a coaching change. If you're picked in the Top 5 any year, chances are you're going to a pretty crappy team. Sometimes it works out (Ryan to Atlanta at #3) but you have no control over where your picked.

Skip Carolina? Next year if he's drafted #1 overall, it could be to Buffalo or any number of crappy teams. I will add this though. Going to Carolina - now you're facing Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.. Buc even looked to be solid. So that could be a tough division for a Rookie to find success unless Carolina's new HC et al pulls an ATL and turns the franchise around. Part of that is getting the Franchise QB.

Will be interesting. I think no matter what everyone wishes Luck the best of, well, luck.

GP
01-07-2011, 10:52 AM
Name me one running QB that has ever won a superbowl?

If things go right, Vick could do it this year.

McNabb almost did. Steve McNair almost did. Those two games were very close games. There was a great chance that both those games end up with both those guys winning titles.

Steve Young, remember THAT guy? He wasn't black, so a lot of people forget how much he ran the ball.

Oh, and there's this guy who also would tuck it and run quite a bit. I can't remember his name. He wasn't black, either, which I think is why it's so hard to remember him. John Elway, I think. Yeah, that's his name. He could take off and burn defenses. Burned the hell out of the Oilers running around all the time. 2 Super Bowls. Back to back. Not too shabby.

This idea that only a pure pocket passer can win the big one has been perpetuated too much. Even Unitas would tuck the ball and run.

I get tired of watching our defense get torched by mobile QBs, but our guy Schaub can't run three steps before being caught from behind by a 300+ lb. defensive lineman, or stopping short of the line of scrimmage and just flinging the ball at somebody's feet.

If the right combination comes along, an Elway or Steve Young type of QB, then the mobile QB can get it done. I think Cam has an arm, and the legs to run the ball. Like I said, though: A lot of people thought the same thing about JeMarcus Russell. So hard to foretell the future.

But I think Cam has the "it" factor. He's very marketable, too.

eriadoc
01-07-2011, 10:58 AM
OK, all of the "Stanford degree" arguments are lame. Face facts - Luck was getting a Stanford degree regardless if he declared or not.

Q: How many Stanford degrees can NFL money buy?
A: As many as you have the time to go to class for.

As for the Texans, this might be great news. He'll probably fall a few spots, the Texans will almost certainly continue to be subpar, and therefore they might have a shot at drafting him in the future.

eriadoc
01-07-2011, 11:01 AM
If things go right, Vick could do it this year.

McNabb almost did. Steve McNair almost did. Those two games were very close games. There was a great chance that both those games end up with both those guys winning titles.

Steve Young, remember THAT guy? He wasn't black, so a lot of people forget how much he ran the ball.

Oh, and there's this guy who also would tuck it and run quite a bit. I can't remember his name. He wasn't black, either, which I think is why it's so hard to remember him. John Elway, I think. Yeah, that's his name. He could take off and burn defenses. Burned the hell out of the Oilers running around all the time. 2 Super Bowls. Back to back. Not too shabby.

This idea that only a pure pocket passer can win the big one has been perpetuated too much. Even Unitas would tuck the ball and run.

I get tired of watching our defense get torched by mobile QBs, but our guy Schaub can't run three steps before being caught from behind by a 300+ lb. defensive lineman, or stopping short of the line of scrimmage and just flinging the ball at somebody's feet.

If the right combination comes along, an Elway or Steve Young type of QB, then the mobile QB can get it done. I think Cam has an arm, and the legs to run the ball. Like I said, though: A lot of people thought the same thing about JeMarcus Russell. So hard to foretell the future.

But I think Cam has the "it" factor. He's very marketable, too.

Those were passing QBs that ran once in a while. No running QB has ever seen much success until they made passing the #1 threat of their game. Then the running threat was an added tool. When running is the prime factor of your game, you're not a good QB.

Stemp
01-07-2011, 11:06 AM
OK, all of the "Stanford degree" arguments are lame. Face facts - Luck was getting a Stanford degree regardless if he declared or not.

Q: How many Stanford degrees can NFL money buy?
A: As many as you have the time to go to class for.

As for the Texans, this might be great news. He'll probably fall a few spots, the Texans will almost certainly continue to be subpar, and therefore they might have a shot at drafting him in the future.

A Standford degree comes in handy 10 years down the road when he's retired from the NFL (or even just a few years if he gets injured) and isn't dependant on his accountant to make sure he has enough money to live. The real world is a shocker to many former players when they stop pickign up the huge paychecks and look around to see if their money was invested wisely or if they have good prospects for a job or business when their knees, backs, elbows, etc aren't in good condition and can't make them money anymore.

eriadoc
01-07-2011, 11:15 AM
A Standford degree comes in handy 10 years down the road when he's retired from the NFL (or even just a few years if he gets injured) and isn't dependant on his accountant to make sure he has enough money to live. The real world is a shocker to many former players when they stop pickign up the huge paychecks and look around to see if their money was invested wisely or if they have good prospects for a job or business when their knees, backs, elbows, etc aren't in good condition and can't make them money anymore.

I'm not disagreeing with why they need a degree. I'm just saying that the argument that he has to get it now is ridiculous. When you have that kind of money, you can pay tuition anywhere you like, whenever you like.

Ole Miss Texan
01-07-2011, 11:36 AM
A Standford degree comes in handy 10 years down the road when he's retired from the NFL (or even just a few years if he gets injured) and isn't dependant on his accountant to make sure he has enough money to live. The real world is a shocker to many former players when they stop pickign up the huge paychecks and look around to see if their money was invested wisely or if they have good prospects for a job or business when their knees, backs, elbows, etc aren't in good condition and can't make them money anymore.

No doubt about it. But would you rather have:

1) $50MM+ guaranteed to you and a Stanford degree.
2) A Stanford degree (first) and take the risk of you (1) getting injured (2) getting drafted lower (3) rookie payscale kicking in.

For Comparison Purposes (2010 Draft):
#1 - QB Sam Bradford - 6 year deal worth $78MM with $50MM guaranteed.
#6 - LT Russell Okung - 6 year deal worth $48MM with $30MM guaranteed.
#9 - RB CJ Spiller - 5 year deal worth $25MM with $20MM guaranteed.

No one is saying to skip a Stanford degree. We're just saying, our opinion is that the wise move would be to take the guaranteed $'s now and earn your degree (2 semesters remaining I assume) in the offseasons. He could easily finish up his degree before his rookie contract is up.

MojoX
01-07-2011, 12:51 PM
PFT is adding that Manning was an advisor: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/07/peyton-manning-advised-andrew-luck-on-returning-to-stanford/

Just wondering publicly... Does anyone know how the risk factor of severe injury varies from position to position? Should QBs be as concerned as RBs? Does that even matter?

Seems Luck wants to have a strong NFL career more than he wants to maximize first contract money and thinks the extra season will help his development. I don't know that going 1 versus going 10 is as big a deal to him as making sure he makes the NFL transition into a fruitful career. Would be interesting to look at past QBs to see if 4 years is a significant factor in NFL QB success.

I'm not saying he is right or wrong, just trying to get into his thinking.
...

I thought about Leinhart's draft status falling after his last year, but I also remember reports that he had shoulder problems after his junior season that needed offseason addressing and was an overlooked factor in his decision. Don't have time to fetch a link, right now, or else I'd provide one to verify my vague recollection.

Dutchrudder
01-07-2011, 01:11 PM
FYI to the money factor arguments, the 2011 draft will be subject to the new CBA rules, so nobody should be signed until that is worked out. If the deal is done with a pay scale, then luck would get the proposed 3 year x $$$ deal.

gary
01-07-2011, 02:15 PM
Why should I judge his choice either way? Whatever he wants to do but it does not effect me one or the other. There is an argument to be made on both sides but I just hope he was not presured and decided this on his own. Good for him I wish him all the best.

Rey
01-24-2012, 02:27 PM
If things go right, Vick could do it this year.

McNabb almost did. Steve McNair almost did. Those two games were very close games. There was a great chance that both those games end up with both those guys winning titles.

Steve Young, remember THAT guy? He wasn't black, so a lot of people forget how much he ran the ball.

Oh, and there's this guy who also would tuck it and run quite a bit. I can't remember his name. He wasn't black, either, which I think is why it's so hard to remember him. John Elway, I think. Yeah, that's his name. He could take off and burn defenses. Burned the hell out of the Oilers running around all the time. 2 Super Bowls. Back to back. Not too shabby.

This idea that only a pure pocket passer can win the big one has been perpetuated too much. Even Unitas would tuck the ball and run.

I get tired of watching our defense get torched by mobile QBs, but our guy Schaub can't run three steps before being caught from behind by a 300+ lb. defensive lineman, or stopping short of the line of scrimmage and just flinging the ball at somebody's feet.

If the right combination comes along, an Elway or Steve Young type of QB, then the mobile QB can get it done. I think Cam has an arm, and the legs to run the ball. Like I said, though: A lot of people thought the same thing about JeMarcus Russell. So hard to foretell the future.

But I think Cam has the "it" factor. He's very marketable, too.

Good foreshadowing GP. Props where it's due.

Ole Miss Texan
01-24-2012, 03:39 PM
WHY would you bump this thread!!!? Hahaha, I was like "Andrew Luck staying at Stanford... WTF!!!!?" LOL

Double Barrel
01-24-2012, 03:44 PM
WHY would you bump this thread!!!? Hahaha, I was like "Andrew Luck staying at Stanford... WTF!!!!?" LOL

lol! I thought the same thing when I read it on the main page! :D

TexanSam
01-24-2012, 03:54 PM
lol! I thought the same thing when I read it on the main page! :D

LOL same here. First thought was "No fking way!"

disaacks3
01-24-2012, 04:27 PM
WHY would you bump this thread!!!? Hahaha, I was like "Andrew Luck staying at Stanford... WTF!!!!?" LOL

lol! I thought the same thing when I read it on the main page! :D

LOL same here. First thought was "No fking way!"

Taze that man!

Rey
01-24-2012, 04:31 PM
WHY would you bump this thread!!!? Hahaha, I was like "Andrew Luck staying at Stanford... WTF!!!!?" LOL

lol! I thought the same thing when I read it on the main page! :D

LOL same here. First thought was "No fking way!"

Taze that man!

LOL...

Well, I wanted to give props to GP and I couldn't rep him...

But having people think this was a recent thread was an amusing thought that popped into my head....:kitten: