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View Full Version : When do we know our draft slot?


Spled
01-02-2011, 07:48 PM
I'm thinking probably around tenth.

Maddict5
01-02-2011, 07:54 PM
11th if seahawks win or 12th is hawks lose

Spled
01-02-2011, 07:56 PM
There's a lot of 6-10 teams. It seems like we're on the bottom end.

bckey
01-02-2011, 07:58 PM
Who cares? The same ol regime will be drafting.

Jackie Chiles
01-02-2011, 07:59 PM
There's a lot of 6-10 teams. It seems like we're on the bottom end.

At least our pick will jump up 1 slot every round for about 4-5 rounds. So if we wind up picking 12th in the first round it will be 11th in the 2nd, 10th in the third etc. until we have the first pick out of all the 6-10 teams. The round after that we drop down to pick last but by then it probably won't make a difference. Definitely not a great year to go 6-10.

Jackie Chiles
01-02-2011, 08:02 PM
11th if seahawks win or 12th is hawks lose

Is this assuming Dallas stays ahead of us? Is there any chance their SOS could bump us ahead of them? I know we were very close coming into today. Also, go Seahawks!

mussop
01-02-2011, 10:16 PM
12th unless Seattle wins and we would of been picking 6th had we lost if im looking at it right. Thats six spots for a meaningless feel good win. This team is deserves everything that has happened to it and will for keeping :kubepalm: around.

SouthSideTexan
01-02-2011, 10:25 PM
Darn.....can't even lose right. :kubepalm:

CharloTex
01-02-2011, 10:57 PM
Is this assuming Dallas stays ahead of us? Is there any chance their SOS could bump us ahead of them? I know we were very close coming into today. Also, go Seahawks!

We are in 11th place so long as Seattle wins, which they currently are.

It's not SOS (Strength of Schedule) as the 1st tie breaker, its Opponent's Winning Percentage (OWP), the lower the %, the earlier you pick. Dallas finished with a .5458. Thier opponents won 131 of their 256 possible games. The Texans opponents finished with a .5583, winning 134 of their possible 256 games. Therefore, Dallas' OWP is less, so they suck just a little more than us, and will pick sooner.

GuerillaBlack
01-02-2011, 11:05 PM
This is exactly why I hoped we would lose today. The best defensive prospects will be gone by the time we pick.

Jackie Chiles
01-02-2011, 11:25 PM
We are in 11th place so long as Seattle wins, which they currently are.

It's not SOS (Strength of Schedule) as the 1st tie breaker, its Opponent's Winning Percentage (OWP), the lower the %, the earlier you pick. Dallas finished with a .5458. Thier opponents won 131 of their 256 possible games. The Texans opponents finished with a .5583, winning 134 of their possible 256 games. Therefore, Dallas' OWP is less, so they suck just a little more than us, and will pick sooner.

How is OWP different than SOS then? Doesn't SOS=the record of your opponents? I mean how else can you determine the strength of someones schedule? They are the same thing.

http://football.about.com/od/football101/g/Strength-Of-Schedule.htm

Dutchrudder
01-02-2011, 11:27 PM
This is exactly why I hoped we would lose today. The best defensive prospects will be gone by the time we pick.

Yep, we just lost our chance at getting either of the top two DTs. Possibly the 3rd best as well, and we need a Suh/Ngata/Wilfork. This defense is going nowhere without an interior pass rush.

CloakNNNdagger
01-02-2011, 11:34 PM
12th unless Seattle wins and we would of been picking 6th had we lost if im looking at it right. Thats six spots for a meaningless feel good win. This team is deserves everything that has happened to it and will for keeping :kubepalm: around.

And who feels really "good" now that we've won? Let their voices be heard!:kubepalm:

BSofA04
01-02-2011, 11:36 PM
And who feels really "good" now that we've won? Let their voices be heard!:kubepalm:
When we want to lose, we win.
:kubepalm::kubepalm::kubepalm:

CloakNNNdagger
01-02-2011, 11:36 PM
Yep, we just lost our chance at getting either of the top two DTs. Possibly the 3rd best as well, and we need a Suh/Ngata/Wilfork. This defense is going nowhere without an interior pass rush.

Yes it is, grasshopper.................right down the crapper.:barman:

steelbtexan
01-02-2011, 11:51 PM
Darn.....can't even lose right. :kubepalm:

Another theme of the Kubiak regime,

Hey Gary if you cant beat the teams that count the least you can do is lose to the teams that dont matter.

MojoMan
01-02-2011, 11:55 PM
Here is the order for the 2011 draft as posted on the Great Blue North Draft Report, complete with opponents W/L percentages:

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

If the Texans had lost today, they would be picking #6 rather than #11.

steelbtexan
01-02-2011, 11:59 PM
This is exactly why I hoped we would lose today. The best defensive prospects will be gone by the time we pick.

This is part of the reason that this team is where it is.

6-10

Do you hve any faith that Smithiak will find players in rds 1-2?

This doesn't even mention the rest of the draft.

Mr. White
01-03-2011, 12:14 AM
The first pick after a 6-10 season. I'm already having flashback from the Ok0ye pick.

Which workout warrior do we draft next?

GuerillaBlack
01-03-2011, 12:29 AM
Man I'm so sick of this. I just want my team to taste the playoffs just once.

Revolution
01-03-2011, 12:31 AM
This is exactly why I hoped we would lose today. The best defensive prospects will be gone by the time we pick.

Doesn't always work out that way...

Playoffs
01-03-2011, 12:39 AM
The same ol regime will be drafting.
^My biggest issue.

GuerillaBlack
01-03-2011, 12:40 AM
Doesn't always work out that way...

Much better chance at getting a better player at pick six than pick 11.

steelbtexan
01-03-2011, 12:42 AM
Doesn't always work out that way...

Coming from a guy that probably thinks SOS doesn't matter.

steelbtexan
01-03-2011, 12:43 AM
^My biggest issue.

Mine too,

In fact there are members on this MB that would've done a better job drafting than Kubiak or Smith.

In fact members of this MB would've shown up at the scouting combine for free unlike Kubiak.

Gary please go to the Combine this yr. You cant use the excuse that you over slept.

michaelm
01-03-2011, 12:54 AM
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81d6b708/article/first-20-picks-of-2011-nfl-draft-determined?module=HP_spotlight

The draft order for the first 20 selections of the 2011 NFL draft have been determined.

1. Panthers -- 2-14
2. Broncos -- 4-12
3. Bills -- 4-12
4. Bengals -- 4-12
5. Cardinals -- 5-11
6. Browns -- 5-11
7. 49ers -- 6-10
8. Titans -- 6-10
9. Cowboys -- 6-10
10. Redskins -- 6-10
11. Texans -- 6-10
12. Vikings -- 6-10
13. Lions -- 6-10
14. Dolphins -- 7-9
15. Rams -- 8-8
16. Jaguars -- 8-8
17. Patriots (from Raiders) -- 8-8
18. Chargers -- 9-7
19. Giants -- 10-6
20. Buccaneers -- 10-6

Picks 21-32 will be determined by playoff outcomes

WolverineFan
01-03-2011, 01:20 AM
Very good chance that we could have gotten Dareus at #6. Not at #11...

The top 4 players on our board should be...

1. Patrick Peterson - CB, LSU
2. Nick Fairley - DT, Auburn
3. Marcell Dareus - DT, Alabama
4. Prince Amakumara - CB, Nebraska

They will all be gone. Our best shot now if for Travis Lewis to declare and we can take him in the 1st. A little high for him, but he's the crown jewel as far as 4-3 LB's go and we need a WLB.

I knew the Texans would screw this up and win today though...

Nawzer
01-03-2011, 01:26 AM
With the decisions this organization has been making recently, we will probably trade away our 1st round pick for a couple of 2nd round picks and draft a punter first followed by numerous tight ends from the state of Colorado. And then sign a couple of undrafted free agent cornerbacks to solve our secondary issues.

VTexan
01-03-2011, 03:14 AM
Very good chance that we could have gotten Dareus at #6. Not at #11...

The top 4 players on our board should be...

1. Patrick Peterson - CB, LSU
2. Nick Fairley - DT, Auburn
3. Marcell Dareus - DT, Alabama
4. Prince Amakumara - CB, Nebraska

They will all be gone. Our best shot now if for Travis Lewis to declare and we can take him in the 1st. A little high for him, but he's the crown jewel as far as 4-3 LB's go and we need a WLB.

I knew the Texans would screw this up and win today though...

If AJ Green or Blackmon are there I don't know how you can pass them up.

Carr Bombed
01-03-2011, 03:33 AM
If Wade is truly coming here, than I see us drafting a NT #1.

WolverineFan
01-03-2011, 04:00 AM
VTexan

Green will be long gone by #11. He's gone in the top 5 easily. Blackmon might sit around longer but I don't like idea of drafting a WR if a top defensive player is still around.

Carr Bombed

No NT's available worth a 1st round pick. Maybe Fairley, but he will be long gone by #11.

SheTexan
01-03-2011, 06:49 AM
This is part of the reason that this team is where it is.

6-10

Do you hve any faith that Smithiak will find players in rds 1-2?

This doesn't even mention the rest of the draft.

Let me see now!! WHERE did they find Foster and Leach??! Who cares what they find in rds 1-2!! The draft is a crapshoot! Gimme some of those "street freaks" anyday!!

rmartin65
01-03-2011, 09:03 AM
Let me see now!! WHERE did they find Foster and Leach??! Who cares what they find in rds 1-2!! The draft is a crapshoot! Gimme some of those "street freaks" anyday!!

Yes, because that is a perfectly rational way to build a team.

In fact, since the draft is such a crapshoot, why doesnt the NFL just put all the team names in a hat, and pick draft order at random? I mean, its unfair for the bad teams to burden their team with high draft picks.

UDFAs succeeding are exceptions, not rules.

disaacks3
01-03-2011, 09:10 AM
Here is the order for the 2011 draft as posted on the Great Blue North Draft Report, complete with opponents W/L percentages:

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

If the Texans had lost today, they would be picking #6 rather than #11.

For folks that don't think a few spots make a difference, please look at the 2007 draft for a painful refresher.

#7 - Adrian Petersen (Vikings)
#10 - Amobi Okoye (Texans)

:mariopalm:

Seņor Stan
01-03-2011, 09:11 AM
The last thing I want is another rookie CB. The. last. thing.

Pay...heck...overpay for an established free agent *cough* Champ Bailey *cough*.

If we are going to a 3-4 then we need to get a big ugly NT or an outside LB. A true FS would be nice...but I'm done hoping for one of those.

ArlingtonTexan
01-03-2011, 09:24 AM
For folks that don't think a few spots make a difference, please look at the 2007 draft for a painful refresher.

#7 - Adrian Petersen (Vikings)
#10 - Amobi Okoye (Texans)

:mariopalm:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2007&round=round1

You could have at least picked a draft that did not have Patrick Willis, Revis and Timmons go a handful of picks after the Texans. The reason draft position does not matter is that the good teams manage to by and large find the good players by moving around the draft board or just knowing who the good players are.

Dutchrudder
01-03-2011, 10:10 AM
If AJ Green or Blackmon are there I don't know how you can pass them up.

I don't see how AJ Green falls out of the top 10. The Browns must take him if he falls to them.

HuttoKarl
01-03-2011, 10:12 AM
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2007&round=round1

You could have at least picked a draft that did not have Patrick Willis, Revis and Timmons go a handful of picks after the Texans. The reason draft position does not matter is that the good teams manage to by and large find the good players by moving around the draft board or just knowing who the good players are.

And Rick Smith tries to get cute drafting players he thinks might surpass Kiper's expectations and make him look good while all we get is another season of those players not playing. Our owner is insane.

beerlover
01-03-2011, 10:13 AM
For folks that don't think a few spots make a difference, please look at the 2007 draft for a painful refresher.

#7 - Adrian Petersen (Vikings)
#10 - Amobi Okoye (Texans)

:mariopalm:

Patrick Willis #11 :heh:

ubecool454
01-03-2011, 11:11 AM
I'm thinking probably around tenth.

TENTH????? OH SHEET! WE TOOK OKOYE WITH THE 10TH PICK!:mariopalm:

The1ApplePie
01-03-2011, 11:12 AM
Doesn't always work out that way...

True.

Sometimes you have to pick between Pat Willis and Darrelle Revis...

And choose Amobi Okoye:mariopalm:

ubecool454
01-03-2011, 11:13 AM
The last thing I want is another rookie CB. The. last. thing.

Pay...heck...overpay for an established free agent *cough* Champ Bailey *cough*.

If we are going to a 3-4 then we need to get a big ugly NT or an outside LB. A true FS would be nice...but I'm done hoping for one of those.

You think we can package up Okoye, Jacoby Jones, and a second rounder to the Raiders for Nnamdi?

otisbean
01-03-2011, 11:21 AM
You think we can package up Okoye, Jacoby Jones, and a second rounder to the Raiders for Nnamdi?

Nope. It would take multiple picks starting with our first rd this yr.

Doppelganger
01-03-2011, 11:28 AM
For folks that don't think a few spots make a difference, please look at the 2007 draft for a painful refresher.

#7 - Adrian Petersen (Vikings)
#10 - Amobi Okoye (Texans)

:mariopalm:

Yeah, but you neglect to mention

#11: Patrick Willis LB
#13: Darrelle Revis CB
#19: Michael Griffin S
#23: Dwayne Bowie WR
#24: Brandon Merriweather S
#25: Jon Beason LB

There were good players still available at the #10 spot. The Texans simply chose poorly. And if they had the #7 spot, there is a good chance they would have gone for another bust DE Jamaal Anderson.

The1ApplePie
01-03-2011, 11:33 AM
Yeah, but you neglect to mention

#11: Patrick Willis LB
#13: Darrelle Revis CB
#19: Michael Griffin S
#23: Dwayne Bowie WR
#24: Brandon Merriweather S
#25: Jon Beason LB

There were good players still available at the #10 spot. The Texans simply chose poorly. And if they had the #7 spot, there is a good chance they would have gone for another bust DE Jamaal Anderson.

Weren't the Texans serious about taking Ted Ginn as well?

ubecool454
01-03-2011, 11:37 AM
Weren't the Texans serious about taking Ted Ginn as well?

probably.

ubecool454
01-03-2011, 11:38 AM
I don't want to draft for the Texans but I wish they would let me acquire 2 free agents this year.

Doppelganger
01-03-2011, 11:38 AM
Weren't the Texans serious about taking Ted Ginn as well?

I would not be surprised if they had a draft board of Jamaal Anderson, Ted Ginn, and Amobi Okoye?!

:mariopalm:

TheCD
01-03-2011, 12:06 PM
Sorry, should have read whole thread. Ignore this post please.

Playoffs
01-03-2011, 01:30 PM
For folks that don't think a few spots make a difference, please look at the 2007 draft for a painful refresher.

#7 - Adrian Petersen (Vikings)
#10 - Amobi Okoye (Texans)

:mariopalm:Yeah, but you neglect to mention

#11: Patrick Willis LB
#13: Darrelle Revis CB
#19: Michael Griffin S
#23: Dwayne Bowie WR
#24: Brandon Merriweather S
#25: Jon Beason LB

There were good players still available at the #10 spot. The Texans simply chose poorly. And if they had the #7 spot, there is a good chance they would have gone for another bust DE Jamaal Anderson.
Difference between a "drafting for need" versus a "best player available" philosophies.

But if you go best available you have to be able to effectively work trades/free agents ..... and our GM can't do that.

GuerillaBlack
01-03-2011, 01:54 PM
Difference between a "drafting for need" versus a "best player available" philosophies.

But if you go best available you have to be able to effectively work trades/free agents ..... and our GM can't do that.

That's why we need a new one, along with a new head coach.

Yankee_In_TX
01-03-2011, 01:58 PM
For folks that don't think a few spots make a difference, please look at the 2007 draft for a painful refresher.

#7 - Adrian Petersen (Vikings)
#10 - Amobi Okoye (Texans)

:mariopalm:

Doesn't that assume the Texans will make the AP pick and not take Amobi at #7?

Ole Miss Texan
01-03-2011, 02:09 PM
Yeah, but you neglect to mention

#11: Patrick Willis LB
#13: Darrelle Revis CB
#19: Michael Griffin S
#23: Dwayne Bowie WR
#24: Brandon Merriweather S
#25: Jon Beason LB

There were good players still available at the #10 spot. The Texans simply chose poorly. And if they had the #7 spot, there is a good chance they would have gone for another bust DE Jamaal Anderson.

It's easy to look back in hindsight and forget about a time period in the past. In regards to the drafting of Amobi Okoye, he was a highly rated player across all the "draft experts" boards. He was a favorite among Texans' fans that follow the draft.

I was in huge favor of drafting Patrick Willis. Demeco Ryans had just come off an excellent rookie season at MLB winning the DROY and wasn't even considered. There wasn't a single fan on here that wanted Willis over Okoye at that time. I was blasted by everybody for even mentioning taking Willis at #10 and that I would gladly take him.

I was very high on Darrelle Revis too but for some reason he just didn't get a lot of mentioning around here. He was in consideration but not overly seriously thought about. Okoye was the hands down favorite in that situation.

Outside of Adrian Peterson, Okoye was the most talked about player for our pick among all the Texans fans.

I bring this up because we're right sometimes we're wrong sometimes. The Texans F.O. is getting paid to be better than us though. LOL. But my point is collectively as a fanbase we all wanted Okoye. We would have picked him had "the Texans listened to us". We get things wrong too, it's just at the time we always think we know better. The second ATL drafted Anderson, a buddy of mine and I were talking on the phone and we concluded that Okoye was going to be the selection for us.

CharloTex
01-04-2011, 09:17 AM
We are in 11th place so long as Seattle wins, which they currently are.

It's not SOS (Strength of Schedule) as the 1st tie breaker, its Opponent's Winning Percentage (OWP), the lower the %, the earlier you pick. Dallas finished with a .5458. Thier opponents won 131 of their 256 possible games. The Texans opponents finished with a .5583, winning 134 of their possible 256 games. Therefore, Dallas' OWP is less, so they suck just a little more than us, and will pick sooner.

Well, Jackie Chiles, technically, you are right, it is based on SOS as defined on NFL.com, but more specifically, the team with the weaker SOS secures better standing in the draft. I wanted to point out that it's more akin to Weakness of Schedule (WOS)

keyser
01-04-2011, 10:21 AM
It's easy to look back in hindsight and forget about a time period in the past. In regards to the drafting of Amobi Okoye, he was a highly rated player across all the "draft experts" boards. He was a favorite among Texans' fans that follow the draft.

I was in huge favor of drafting Patrick Willis. Demeco Ryans had just come off an excellent rookie season at MLB winning the DROY and wasn't even considered. There wasn't a single fan on here that wanted Willis over Okoye at that time. I was blasted by everybody for even mentioning taking Willis at #10 and that I would gladly take him.

I was very high on Darrelle Revis too but for some reason he just didn't get a lot of mentioning around here. He was in consideration but not overly seriously thought about. Okoye was the hands down favorite in that situation.

Outside of Adrian Peterson, Okoye was the most talked about player for our pick among all the Texans fans.

I bring this up because we're right sometimes we're wrong sometimes. The Texans F.O. is getting paid to be better than us though. LOL. But my point is collectively as a fanbase we all wanted Okoye. We would have picked him had "the Texans listened to us". We get things wrong too, it's just at the time we always think we know better. The second ATL drafted Anderson, a buddy of mine and I were talking on the phone and we concluded that Okoye was going to be the selection for us.

Good post - I remember I was very excited when Okoye fell to us. I thought he would be taken just in front of us, and was extremely excited when the Dolphins picked Ginn, and Okoye was chosen. As far as I remember, almost everyone had Okoye as a top prospect. It's true that he didn't work out, but people who gripe about the Texans picking poorly there forget that practically everyone else thought Okoye was picked at about the right spot. Plus, it was a position of need. It's obvious that basically every team makes mistakes and occasionally drafts a bust, and most will occasionally hit on someone strong at later points in the draft. [I think the Texans' 2006 draft is probably one of the best by any team, ever, and that maybe spoiled us a little.]

My memory of Willis was that many people agreed he'd be a great player (I remember several people talking highly of him, and almost no negatives), in fact, a lot of people were thinking he could be the best player in the draft. But, with us having Ryans, he seemed like a total luxury pick (not a position of need), at a time when we weren't in a position to pick for luxury. I don't remember people putting Revis at the same level as Okoye/Willis, at the time, and it seems crazy to be blaming the Texans for missing out on him when a bunch of other teams also passed up on him.

So, I don't get too upset about the bad Okoye pick. I have less sympathy when the team chooses a player well ahead of where most people had him rated, and that player doesn't pan out. One of the reasons I'm particularly annoyed about Kareem Jackson is that the Texans picked him "early", over other CB prospects that many considered better. I believe a rationale was that he would be "ready to play" this year - ha! [to be fair, I thought Kyle Wilson would have been a better pick, but he seems no better than Jackson.] Basically, the Texans went out on a limb, and they deserve a lot more blame if he doesn't perform well. Duane Brown was similar - chosen way earlier than most had him, and so the team gets greater credit or criticism depending on how he does.

Playoffs
01-04-2011, 04:58 PM
...My memory of Willis was that many people agreed he'd be a great player (I remember several people talking highly of him, and almost no negatives), in fact, a lot of people were thinking he could be the best player in the draft...
Yup.

beerlover
01-04-2011, 05:21 PM
or it could be the Texans have yet draft or pick-up via FA a dynamic two-gap UT next to Amobi?