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View Full Version : Is winning the division the only way to make the playoffs?


silvrhand
10-25-2010, 05:02 PM
After watching more and more AFC games this week I don't see us making the playoffs unless we win the division..

AFC East:
Jets
Patriots
Dolphins

AFC North:
Steelers
Ravens

AFC South:
Colts
Texans
Titans

AFC West
Chiefs
Chargers

That leaves about 6 teams up for 2 wildcard slots in the AFC.. gonna be rough..

utahmark
10-25-2010, 05:11 PM
yes! i believe so.

El Tejano
10-25-2010, 05:12 PM
It's our best way but not the only way. That's why wether people want to think so or not, this win over The Chiefs was pretty big IMO. Now we got a tie breaker on those guys. Be great if we could remain undefeated in AFC.

badboy
10-25-2010, 05:14 PM
W-L columns will change next 10 games. We gonna be alllrrightee

Goldensilence
10-25-2010, 05:15 PM
After watching more and more AFC games this week I don't see us making the playoffs unless we win the division..

AFC East:
Jets
Patriots
Dolphins

AFC North:
Steelers
Ravens

AFC South:
Colts
Texans
Titans

AFC West
Chiefs
Chargers

That leaves about 6 teams up for 2 wildcard slots in the AFC.. gonna be rough..

I was thinking the same thing before I saw this post.

Tough competition in the AFC. For better or worse the texans at this point at least control their destiny with who they play and a shot at winning the division. Unlike last year the texans need to win games in the next stretch of division games.

cdollaz
10-25-2010, 05:19 PM
I would lean towards the division losers between the Jets/Patriots and Steelers/Ravens getting the 2 wild card spots, meaning that yes, we need to win the division.

utahmark
10-25-2010, 05:20 PM
i think it may take 12 wins to get a wild card this year.

Dutchrudder
10-25-2010, 05:23 PM
There was a 6 way tie for 5/6th place going into week 17 last year. I don't think it will be much different this year. Just gotta take care of business.

thunderkyss
10-25-2010, 05:25 PM
i think it may take 12 wins to get a wild card this year.


I can't imagine the wild card with 12 wins. We're all going to be playing each other in the next 10 weeks, so every game definitely counts.

I'm thinking 10 games won't be enough, & it's going to take 11 wins.

I know it's "only" one game, but there's a big difference between 12 & 11, a big difference between 11 & 10... a big difference between 10 & 9.

utahmark
10-25-2010, 05:33 PM
I can't imagine the wild card with 12 wins. We're all going to be playing each other in the next 10 weeks, so every game definitely counts.

I'm thinking 10 games won't be enough, & it's going to take 11 wins.

I know it's "only" one game, but there's a big difference between 12 & 11, a big difference between 11 & 10... a big difference between 10 & 9.

new england missed the playoff's with 11 wins a couple of years ago. between balt, pitt, ne, and nyj. you pick one of those teams that won't win at least 11 games. one of them may not but i would'nt bet on it. balt would be my pick if i had to guess one.

last year at this time i was saying 9 wins might get a spot. it's diff this year.

Kaiser Toro
10-25-2010, 05:36 PM
Not the only way, but Kubiak's keys to success for the season were win in the division, be more physical and overcome adversity. Only one is quantifiable, and based on how the season has gone to date, it is the only one that matters for this member.

As much as I want to be aesthetically pleased, it does take a back seat to the goal - playoffs. Damn you St. Mora!:kitten:

Stemp
10-25-2010, 05:41 PM
All those teams have to play each other twice and many have only seen a few of their division rivals once. We still have 5 division games. There aren't any teams running away with their divisions so far, so likey a 9 or 10 win team will make it as a wild card.

wagonhed
10-25-2010, 05:51 PM
Speaking in hypotheticals, if we go 11-5 and miss the playoffs I will be furious but I will not call for Kubiak to be fired.

Most likely way I see this happening is for the Titans to win the division since imo they are built to beat us and the Colts. Then, Ravens beating us and getting in on the tiebreaker, with NE getting in at 12-4.

utahmark
10-25-2010, 05:52 PM
All those teams have to play each other twice and many have only seen a few of their division rivals once. We still have 5 division games. There aren't any teams running away with their divisions so far, so likey a 9 or 10 win team will make it as a wild card.

ne, nyj, and pitt are all 5 and 1. if you want any of those teams to go 10 and 6 you need them to be 500 ball clubs the rest of the way. i don't see any of those teams going 5 and 5 the rest of the way. it's up to balt who is 4 and 2.

it's either up to us to catch tenn.(who i believe is just as good as those 4 teams) or one of those(balt maybe) to collapse. I don't see us going to the playoffs if we don't win at least 11 games and that may not be enough. it's going to be a tough year to get in.

they have already had some games against each other and they are not all in the same div so they don't all play each other twice. i think you were talking about just the div teams.

infantrycak
10-25-2010, 05:54 PM
new england missed the playoff's with 11 wins a couple of years ago.

Yes and it was notable because it happens so rarely just like it was rare for an 8-8 team to make the playoffs as happened that year as well.

cdollaz
10-25-2010, 05:57 PM
I think it may take 11 wins this year also. Too bad we aren't in the NFC. Would probably get in with 9 over there.

Hervoyel
10-25-2010, 06:01 PM
There's a lot of football left to play. The best way to go about making the playoffs is to try and win every single game left on the schedule. It's not going to happen of course but if they will quit with the sleep-walking performances and stay focused they have a chance to win 10 or 11 games and that's going to be good enough.

utahmark
10-25-2010, 06:02 PM
Yes and it was notable because it happens so rarely just like it was rare for an 8-8 team to make the playoffs as happened that year as well.

thats true. and i said the same thing to people last year who were saying that it would take 11 wins last year in thread pretty much like this one.

this year you have 4 superbowl quality teams coming out of 2 div. that does'nt happen often and that's why i think this year is diff.

eriadoc
10-25-2010, 06:06 PM
I think we have a better chance of beating the Colts than we do of beating the Jets, Ravens, or Steelers. So I guess I think winning the division is our best bet.

thunderkyss
10-25-2010, 06:10 PM
new england missed the playoff's with 11 wins a couple of years ago. between balt, pitt, ne, and nyj. you pick one of those teams that won't win at least 11 games. one of them may not but i would'nt bet on it. balt would be my pick if i had to guess one.

last year at this time i was saying 9 wins might get a spot. it's diff this year.

I would pick the NYJets. Baltimore's 9 wins last year was legit. We've seen the Jets "breakdown" last year..... I'm thinking it will happen again.

I can't think of 7 teams in the AFC that I think will win more than 10 games.

utahmark
10-25-2010, 06:16 PM
I would pick the NYJets. Baltimore's 9 wins last year was legit. We've seen the Jets "breakdown" last year..... I'm thinking it will happen again.

I can't think of 7 teams in the AFC that I think will win more than 10 games.

It does'nt have to be 7 teams. It just has to be those 4. After that whoever wins the west gets a spot, no matter what their record is. Then whoever wins our div. gets a spot. So if we don't win our div. We have to have a record better that those 4 teams to get in.

Stemp
10-25-2010, 06:46 PM
Ugh... I changed my mind.

I just ran the rest of the schedules for the teams listed in the original post and I have the 11-5 NE Pats, 10-6 Miami, and 11-5 Indy all missing the post season

Jets (5-1) win the east at 14-2 (lose to Pitt)
Steelers (5-1) win the North at 13-3(losses to Cincy and Baltimore)
Houston(4-2) win the South at 12-4 (losses to NYJ and Baltimore)
Ravens (5-2) Wildcard at 12-4 (losses to Atlanta and and New Orleans)
Tennessee (5-2) Wildcard at 11-5 (losses to Houston x2 and Indy)

thunderkyss
10-25-2010, 06:54 PM
It does'nt have to be 7 teams. It just has to be those 4. After that whoever wins the west gets a spot, no matter what their record is. Then whoever wins our div. gets a spot. So if we don't win our div. We have to have a record better that those 4 teams to get in.
I'm thinking along the lines of someone being 11-5 & missing the play-offs. I believe I was responding to someone mentioning the Patriots missing the post season @ 11-5.

So for a team to be 11-5 & miss the playoffs, The North, East, & South would have to be won by teams with 11 or more wins. The Wild Cards would have to go to teams with 11 or more wins. That's 5 teams right there. The team that missed would also have to have 11 wins.... that's 6.

So for a team to miss the play-offs at 11 wins, 6 teams in the AFC (minimum) would have to finish with 11 wins.

I was off by one.

Sorry, If someone wins the North, South, or East with 10 wins, that would reduce the number of 11 win teams to 5, with one missing the play-offs.

honored82
10-25-2010, 06:59 PM
If we beat Indy next week, we can almost guarantee ourselves the division winners spot, as long as as indy takes care of titans and jags, and we split with them, we should be fine.

If we loose to indy then we need to beat the Jets definitely, coz thats what got us out last year, as we had a very painful opening day loss to Jets last season.

thunderkyss
10-25-2010, 09:35 PM
If we beat Indy next week, we can almost guarantee ourselves the division winners spot, as long as as indy takes care of titans and jags, and we split with them, we should be fine.

If we loose to indy then we need to beat the Jets definitely, coz thats what got us out last year, as we had a very painful opening day loss to Jets last season.

I wish.

NYJets defense didn't help us.

Beating the Colts Monday would go a long way. But if we sweep Indy, & the Titans/Jags sweep Indy.... we're in serious doo-doo. Because we were built to beat the King, & the King may not be the King anymore.

Splitting with the Titans & Jags would be nice, better than where we finished last year.

So far, the Titans are 3-1 against the NFC East..... best we can do is 2-2. They've lost to Pittsburgh & still have Miami coming up. To catch up, we've got to win either/both the Baltimore & Jets game.

They are 2-0 so far against the AFC West, with KC & San Diego coming up.
We're 2-0 vs the AFC West, with San Diego & Denver coming up.

Division......... Titans........Texans.......Colts.......Jaguars
AFC South...... 1-0........... 1-0.......... 0-2 ........ 1-0
AFC West....... 1-1........... 2-0.......... 2-0......... 1-2
NFC East........ 3-0........... 1-2.......... 2-0......... 0-1
AFC Slot........ 0-1........... 0-0.......... 0-0......... 1-0

.

thunderkyss
10-25-2010, 10:04 PM
Division......... Titans........Texans.......Colts.......Jaguars
AFC South...... 1-0........... 1-0.......... 0-2 ........ 1-0
AFC West....... 1-1........... 2-0.......... 2-0......... 1-2
NFC East........ 3-0........... 1-2.......... 2-0......... 0-1
AFC Slot........ 0-1........... 0-0.......... 0-0......... 1-0

.................... 5-2...........4-2.......... 4-2..........3-3


Anyway we can get something like this as a banner on the sight?

silvrhand
10-26-2010, 03:27 AM
Anyway we can get something like this as a banner on the sight?

Honestly I could care less right now about what our non division record is that's the only way we are getting in the playoffs, NFC victories don't matter far as that is concerned.

thunderkyss
10-26-2010, 05:49 AM
Honestly I could care less right now about what our non division record is that's the only way we are getting in the playoffs, NFC victories don't matter far as that is concerned.

Overall record is what gets you the division. You could win all your division games, and still lose the division if your overall record is 6-10.

I'd like the stats posted the way I presented it, just to get an idea of how things are going. The Tacks being 3-0 vs the NFC East is interesting, to catch up (since the best we can do vsthe NFC East is 2-2) we'll have to out perform them somewhere else. In the division would be nice. We're looking good so far vs the AFC West, but those slot games look even more important as far as te Wild Card goes.

gtexan02
10-26-2010, 09:03 AM
The new schedule that weights division games toward the end of the year is making things look tight early in a false way.

We've only played one division game so far, as have many other teams. Division races will start to shape up once teams start playing each other more.

El Tejano
10-26-2010, 10:51 AM
The new schedule that weights division games toward the end of the year is making things look tight early in a false way.

We've only played one division game so far, as have many other teams. Division races will start to shape up once teams start playing each other more.

Thank you. My theory of putting the second set of division games in the last month to make games more interesting is really coming to fruition. For example the AFC East has already finished their first set of division games. Could you imagine if New England had to play Miami, NYJ, and Buffalo in the last month of the season. Things could change for anyone during that time.

keyser
10-26-2010, 11:09 AM
We're looking good so far vs the AFC West, but those slot games look even more important as far as te Wild Card goes.

The slot games are interesting. We have:
Houston: New York (5-1) and Baltimore (5-2)
Indy: Cincinnatti (2-4) and New England (5-1)
Tenn: Pittsburgh (5-1) and Miami (3-3)
Jax: Buffalo (0-6) and Cleveland (2-5)

Why is it (and yes, I do know why) that we end up with what seems like the toughest two slot games?!?

I do find it interesting that we're the only AFC team undefeated in our conference (of course, we're the only team that has only had 3 conference games)... Of all the games we could lose, we at least have picked the ones that should matter least in terms of wildcard.

edited to add another gripe: Why did they schedule us to come off our bye week and play a) a Monday Night game, and b) against another team coming off a bye. Then, the following week (which will be a short week for us), we play a team (Jacksonville) coming off of their bye.

keyser
10-26-2010, 11:23 AM
The new schedule that weights division games toward the end of the year is making things look tight early in a false way.

We've only played one division game so far, as have many other teams. Division races will start to shape up once teams start playing each other more.

I don't know how true this is:
The AFC East have all played 3 division games
The AFC North has two teams with 3 division games played, and two with 2
The AFC South has two teams with 2, two with 1
The AFC West has two teams with 2, two with 1

The two divisions besides us that seem to have the strongest teams have had a big chunk (one AFC North game short of half) of their division games played already.

Overall in the AFC, there will be 48 division games played. At this point, 17 of those have been played (35%). The AFC teams have played 97 of their 256 games (38%) (I know that is off a bit because it double counts games in the division, but the percentage should be about right).

Point is, I don't think we have stuff super-weighted toward the end of the season, overall. It is that way for us (and the AFC South and West), but not that way in the AFC East/North.

ObsiWan
10-26-2010, 05:05 PM
It's not the only way but it's damned sure the best way.
And that's how our guys ought to be thinking.

DexmanC
10-26-2010, 05:10 PM
It's not the only way but it's damned sure the best way.
And that's how our guys ought to be thinking.

The Bengals sucked ass out of the division last year (4-6,) but
the only reason they went to post-season was due to sweeping
their division (Steelers, Ravens, Browns.) If the Bengals can do it,
the Texans had BETTER be aiming for the AFC South crown.

gary
10-26-2010, 05:14 PM
Just win as many as possible and the rest will fall into place.

Norg
10-27-2010, 02:34 AM
One week at a time lets go into each week beleiving we can W and at the end of the season the chips will fall in place


and if the jags beat the jets last year i dont see why we cant

NitroGSXR
10-27-2010, 03:12 AM
and if the jags beat the jets last year i dont see why we cant

You're saying that as if we waxed the Jaguars last season...

thunderkyss
10-27-2010, 05:39 AM
One week at a time lets go into each week beleiving we can W and at the end of the season the chips will fall in place


and if the jags beat the jets last year i dont see why we cant

I think that's what got us in this mess to begin with. If we didn't believe we could win, we'd all be ecstatic right now. But every one of us had the feeling that this year was going to be special, then we saw our team ply. We realize that we didn't take the field with the superior game plan, or dominate our opponent in any way in all but our first game of the year.

We are worried, because what we see doesn't match how we feel.

This whole "finding a way to win" crap is totally foreign to us..... & frightening.

DexmanC
10-27-2010, 09:59 AM
Yes. The Texans are 4-2, but they've routinely been 7-3, or 8-2 out
of division play. The test for this team, is being better than 1-5 or 2-4 against The South.

The Colts, Jags, and Titans usually beat the Texans no matter how BAD
these teams play against everybody else. This is why I'm saying our current
record is built on "smoke-n-mirrors." Division play is what has kept this team out
of the playoffs over and over again. This year, 1-5 or 2-4 against The South
ain't gonna cut it. Are the 'Texans Kings of Da Souf?' They'd better be, if they
wanna go to the playoffs.

....this is why the Colts game is gonna show us A LOT about Kubiak
and his ability to get this team to make some lemonade.

thunderkyss
10-27-2010, 10:03 AM
Yes. The Texans are 4-2, but they've routinely been 7-3, or 8-2 out
of division play. The test for this team, is being better than 1-5 or 2-4 against The South.

The Colts, Jags, and Titans usually beat the Texans no matter how BAD
these teams play against everybody else.

Exactly

....this is why the Colts game is gonna show us A LOT about Kubiak
and his ability to get this team to make some lemonade.

I'm hoping he can make something with a little more kick.

tylercoltsfan
10-27-2010, 11:57 AM
I would say so. The AFC is so tight this year its ridiculous. It sounds crazy but even the Chargers can win out from here and get to 12-4 or 11-5.... I dont know what their record is. But nothing is safe in the AFC if you are not a division winner. But I would have to agree Jets, and Ravens will probably get the wild card with Patriots and Steelers winning the division. I doubt an 11-5 record will get a team in the playoffs this year with how good the teams are looking in the AFC.

ChampionTexan
10-27-2010, 12:12 PM
It sounds crazy but even the Chargers can win out from here and get to 12-4 or 11-5....

Seeing as they are 2-5 right now, the first thing will be kind of tough for them to do.

tylercoltsfan
10-27-2010, 12:17 PM
Seeing as they are 2-5 right now, the first thing will be kind of tough for them to do.

I didnt have time to check what their record was..... Which is why I said 12-4 or 11-5 I dont know what their record is.

ChampionTexan
10-27-2010, 12:22 PM
I didnt have time to check what their record was..... Which is why I said 12-4 or 11-5 I dont know what their record is.

Because you were under such a strict deadline for getting your post on this message board?

(Just yankin' your chain a little bit man - no worries!)

HOU-TEX
10-27-2010, 12:23 PM
I would say so. The AFC is so tight this year its ridiculous. It sounds crazy but even the Chargers can win out from here and get to 12-4 or 11-5.... I dont know what their record is. But nothing is safe in the AFC if you are not a division winner. But I would have to agree Jets, and Ravens will probably get the wild card with Patriots and Steelers winning the division. I doubt an 11-5 record will get a team in the playoffs this year with how good the teams are looking in the AFC.

This might end up to be true. Unfortunately, their will likely be a few NFC playoff teams with worse records than some AFC teams that didn't make the show. Crazy, but seems to happen a lot. It just might be more this year than the last few years

thunderkyss
10-27-2010, 12:25 PM
Because you were under such a strict deadline for getting your post on this message board?

(Just yankin' your chain a little bit man - no worries!)

Give'em hell Champ, give'em hell.

tylercoltsfan
10-27-2010, 12:33 PM
This might end up to be true. Unfortunately, their will likely be a few NFC playoff teams with worse records than some AFC teams that didn't make the show. Crazy, but seems to happen a lot. It just might be more this year than the last few years

It for sure will happen. The way its looking a team could miss the playoffs at 11-5 in the AFC, and teams in the NFC like the Seattle Seahawks can get in the playoffs at 8-8.

infantrycak
10-27-2010, 12:57 PM
It for sure will happen. The way its looking a team could miss the playoffs at 11-5 in the AFC, and teams in the NFC like the Seattle Seahawks can get in the playoffs at 8-8.

I'm just going to point out the last time a team didn't make the playoffs with an 11-5 was the Patriots but when that happened the AFC also had a miserable division where the division winner was 8-8 so that division was giving away an abnormal amount of wins as well. Also the conference as a whole was very non-parity in 2008. There were 6 teams with 11-5 or better records and 3 of those were 12-4. After that there was a big drop off with with only 1 team as close as 2 back.