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View Full Version : DD vs. LT last year


cptnbreakdance
03-25-2005, 07:10 PM
I was snooping around and I came across this. Very comparable, both were injured for awhile so you can't really argue about that.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/sortableStats?div=NFL&stat=rushAvg&stable=rushing&dir=descending&stype=null&season=regular

Just scroll down to #'s 31 & 32 they are both there.

YodAa
03-25-2005, 07:49 PM
Wow I knew DD was good, but LT good! Makes me proud to own his jersey.

Sarg01
03-25-2005, 08:41 PM
I was snooping around and I came across this. Very comparable, both were injured for awhile so you can't really argue about that.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/sortableStats?div=NFL&stat=rushAvg&stable=rushing&dir=descending&stype=null&season=regular

Just scroll down to #'s 31 & 32 they are both there.


Wow, that is nice. Take a look at the Individual receiving numbers, too. Davis #64 and LT #79

TexansTrueFan
03-25-2005, 08:45 PM
see some of you talk about how great LT is and how D.D dont compare think, well they have simular numbers, and Davis leads in receiving yards. Plus their avg rushing yars are both 3.9.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
03-25-2005, 08:55 PM
The difference between the two? LT is the focal point of the offense while DD is mainly a safety valve. Teams don't want to see the ball in LT's hands. For us, opponents will take their chances with DD running the ball rather than letting Andre Johnson get his hands on it. We have a losing record when DD rushes for 100+ yards.

Wolf
03-25-2005, 08:56 PM
see some of you talk about how great LT is and how D.D dont compare think, well they have simular numbers, and Davis leads in receiving yards. Plus their avg rushing yars are both 3.9.

Honestly, it suprised me on the stats..but maybe I am just hardheaded and slow to come around..but if I had a chance to pick Lt or DD.... Lt would be my pick ..hands down.

to me.. teams play S.D. and what do they want to do? Stop LT..
teams play the Texans and what do they want to do? Stop AJ...

I just have LT's 2003 stats still buried in my mind ..100 catches.. over 1600 yards rushing and 2002 Lt needed about 20 more catches to duplicate 2003


on that note, I am happy to have DD.. He has done more than I thought he would have when we drafted him.. He has busted his butt for the Texans and I am thankful for that and I do think that with a better OL he will put out better numbers.. He is a solid back IMO..not spectacular or great but solid. I just wish he had a little more breakaway speed



texanpride

D-ReK
03-25-2005, 08:58 PM
The difference between the two? LT is the focal point of the offense while DD is mainly a safety valve. Teams don't want to see the ball in LT's hands. For us, opponents will take their chances with DD running the ball rather than letting Andre Johnson get his hands on it. We have a losing record when DD rushes for 100+ yards.

Agreed...The big difference is that teams game plan on stopping LT and allow the Chargers' receivers/Gates beat them...For us, opposing teams focus on stopping AJ and seeing if DD can beat them...

Texans32
03-25-2005, 08:59 PM
dont forget that DD was out 4 or 5 games and still put up the #s he did, that's pretty impressive

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
03-25-2005, 09:03 PM
dont forget that DD was out 4 or 5 games and still put up the #s he did, that's pretty impressive



DD missed 1 game (vs Oakland)

gg no re
03-25-2005, 09:14 PM
Do we really need to start another DD debate thread? o_O

*rings bell*

ROUND ONE! GOOOO!!!!

Who cares, both players had to deal with 11 in the box all season [although for different reasons]. LDT was blessed with a warm Brees though. Get the pun? Get it?! Eh, eh?!!

Paragon Blue
03-25-2005, 09:16 PM
I said that once he stayed healthy that he was a very good player. Wells and DD are going to do just fine for us this year.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
03-25-2005, 09:17 PM
There is no debate here. LT is clearly the better back.

Texans32
03-25-2005, 09:20 PM
DD missed 1 game (vs Oakland)
my bad i thought he missed more than that, but i think he had to leave a couple early as well

Jwwillis
03-25-2005, 09:22 PM
I say this is Hollings year to show us what he's got. You want break away speed? Enter Hollings. If the Texans can put togather a consistant one two punch with Hollings and DD next year the running game will be just fine.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
03-25-2005, 09:23 PM
my bad i thought he missed more than that, but i think he had to leave a couple early as well


Yea he got pulled from the KC and TN game early. Still got 10 carries in each game but was pretty much ineffective.

Texans32
03-25-2005, 09:25 PM
:thumbupYea he got pulled from the KC and TN game early. Still got 10 carries in each game but was pretty much ineffective.
but the good thing about that is that someone, dont remember if wells or hollings, steped in and did a great job, next year's running game will be good :thumbup

D-ReK
03-25-2005, 09:33 PM
I say this is Hollings year to show us what he's got. You want break away speed? Enter Hollings. If the Texans can put togather a consistant one two punch with Hollings and DD next year the running game will be just fine.

I really want to believe that Hollings is going to amount to something, but he's spent both of his years with us plagued by injuries, and I don't know foresee that problem changing this year...I hope I'm wrong, though...

Sarg01
03-25-2005, 10:55 PM
There is no debate here. LT is clearly the better back.

No one's arguing that. We're just giving DD his props as one of the better backs at production in the league.

TexansTrueFan
03-25-2005, 11:55 PM
i mean honestly if D.D can put up them number with our OL, imagine what he could do with an OL like san deigos !

Sarg01
03-25-2005, 11:57 PM
i mean honestly if D.D can put up them number with our OL, imagine what he could do with an OL like san deigos !

We run-blocked pretty well on the left side of the line. It's the main reason I'm not ready to ditch Wand yet.

TexansTrueFan
03-26-2005, 12:03 AM
oh i agree the left side was much stronger than the right side of the line, itd be nice if we had equal GOOD play out of both sides ! Seems everytime D.D would break one was when he ran to the left side !

mean mark8
03-26-2005, 12:24 AM
The difference between the two? LT is the focal point of the offense while DD is mainly a safety valve. Teams don't want to see the ball in LT's hands. For us, opponents will take their chances with DD running the ball rather than letting Andre Johnson get his hands on it. We have a losing record when DD rushes for 100+ yards.
I had DD on my fantasy football team all year. He made my season and I won it. The thing I noticed, however, was that when he is healthy, he becomes our offensive crutch. Maybe it's because we only look at AJ otherwise, but our offense is all about one read downfield and dump the ball to DD. W/out looking at the stats, I can tell you DD had at least 60% of the touches on offense in any game he was healthy. Note that in the year LT put up the 100 catches and 1600 yards, San Diego was the worst team in the league. Have you all forgotten the Eli Manning/Rivers trade things? When any one player is over 50% of your offense, there is no imagination and you will lose. DD, I believe is an excellent back, but if he gets as many touches this year as last, we're going backwards, not forwards.

Wolf
03-26-2005, 12:36 AM
exactly..

when wells was in Carr didn't have his crutch so he IMO was forced to find someone else...

check out these ugly stats on DD
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=140815

and not all of it is DD's fault

TexansTrueFan
03-26-2005, 12:52 AM
yes D.D is very productive when he is in, but i dont think he should be our whole offense. Carr just needs to quit dumping it off to Davis every time he feels a little pressure, and those big games Davis has wont be for nothing !

outofhnd
03-26-2005, 03:18 AM
Dont blame carr either when you lose faith in your offensive line, You tend to fire it to the first available open jersey you see. So its not really Carr's Fault I think Our O line needs to do a better job of reading the defense and pick up blocks accordingly. To me the interior of the O line seemed to miss read and were letting lineman bust containment. That means Carr had to Roll or move and try to avoid. i say if we can give car a solid 5 seconds, youll see him start shredding any zone defense.

Sarg01
03-26-2005, 03:28 AM
exactly..

when wells was in Carr didn't have his crutch so he IMO was forced to find someone else...

check out these ugly stats on DD
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=140815

and not all of it is DD's fault

What I see there:

DD is most productive without a FB.
He runs best when the offense is in a 3-wide formation.
He runs 4+ YPC to the left and middle, but drops to only 3.1 on the right.
He runs substantially better against 6 defenders on the line than 4.
He is most productive on 3rd down.
He averages 5.7 YPC on 3rd down with less then 2 yards for the first.
He does exceptionally well on 3rd down with 3-7 yards to the first, averaging almost 9 YPC.

Sounds pretty good to me.

Scooter
03-26-2005, 05:21 AM
that's a great set of splits wolf, it really breaks down many things.

the one that stands out most for me is the amount of carries in losses vs those in wins. 188 to 114 with 10 td's during losses & 3 during wins. his receptions are just as skewed with 21 in wins to 47 in losses with his lone td coming in a loss. what that says to me (which we already knew) is that in the games we're losing, we're trying to force DD to be our entire offense. it didnt work for sd with LT and it wont work for us. many of us have been saying it for a while ... when david carr becomes the focal point of our offense, everyone else is just going to be that much better. expect DD to put up career numbers when (if) that happens. as always, it comes down to having a working offensive line.

btw, can anyone find numbers comparing yards after contact? i'd love to see that stat.

Wolf
03-26-2005, 07:18 AM
Dont blame carr either when you lose faith in your offensive line, You tend to fire it to the first available open jersey you see. So its not really Carr's Fault I think Our O line needs to do a better job of reading the defense and pick up blocks accordingly. To me the interior of the O line seemed to miss read and were letting lineman bust containment. That means Carr had to Roll or move and try to avoid. i say if we can give car a solid 5 seconds, youll see him start shredding any zone defense.

I am not blaming Carr for anything. I realize that many times by the time Carr gets back to his 5 yard drop , he is backing into a defender... I am making a general statement with what I have noticed.. it is AJ or DD as the 1st 2 progressions. He seems to lock on to certain people during a game...And yes that could come the lack of time back there..

D-ReK
03-26-2005, 09:11 AM
the one that stands out most for me is the amount of carries in losses vs those in wins. 188 to 114 with 10 td's during losses & 3 during wins. his receptions are just as skewed with 21 in wins to 47 in losses with his lone td coming in a loss. what that says to me (which we already knew) is that in the games we're losing, we're trying to force DD to be our entire offense. it didnt work for sd with LT and it wont work for us. many of us have been saying it for a while ... when david carr becomes the focal point of our offense, everyone else is just going to be that much better. expect DD to put up career numbers when (if) that happens. as always, it comes down to having a working offensive line.

I actually think the stats reflect something different...It's not that we're forcing DD to be our whole offense, it's that opposing team's defenses are forcing DD to be our whole offense...Basically other teams focus on stopping our passing game and allow DD to get his catches and runs...In our wins, our WRs aren't shut out and there are more options than just having Davis...

edo783
03-26-2005, 10:18 AM
I see an interesting thing here. Is it that sometimes we force the game to DD or is it that sometimes teams force us to over use DD. Someone with the games on tape and with more time than I have, needs to look at them and see if the game plan appears to be to go to DD or are we forced to by their defenses. My guess is that some of the teams game plan better than others and force us to make DD the focus of our offense. Those that can't/don't force us to over use DD are the ones we play well aginst. I actually hope that is the case as I would hate to think that our game plan was that poor and pedestian.

Vinny
03-26-2005, 10:20 AM
Part of the problem is that we are dictated to instead of the team doing the dictating. Palmer is an old Run and Shoot diciple and he reacts to the defense instead of attacking the defense as the chuck-n-duck did. Defenses know this and sets up in a manner where we do something predictable as a reaction.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 03:23 AM
that's a great set of splits wolf, it really breaks down many things.

the one that stands out most for me is the amount of carries in losses vs those in wins. 188 to 114 with 10 td's during losses & 3 during wins. his receptions are just as skewed with 21 in wins to 47 in losses with his lone td coming in a loss. what that says to me (which we already knew) is that in the games we're losing, we're trying to force DD to be our entire offense. it didnt work for sd with LT and it wont work for us. many of us have been saying it for a while ... when david carr becomes the focal point of our offense, everyone else is just going to be that much better. expect DD to put up career numbers when (if) that happens. as always, it comes down to having a working offensive line.

btw, can anyone find numbers comparing yards after contact? i'd love to see that stat.


i think that stats a little missleading,,,because he may have great numbers and we lose so some of you blame it on D.D,,,but if he has poor numbers and we lose some of you still blame it on D.D. And he is a very productive back, i just take that as the rest of the team not doing their job. Ya think D.D can control whether Carr passes him the ball our if they hand it to him on 3rd and 21 ?? NO !!!

Wolf
03-27-2005, 07:09 AM
what suprised me was when DD runs up the middle his average was 4.6 I think...but when I actually thought about it.. that stat is very misleading being alot of his yards comes from draw plays when it is 3rd and long.

Vinny is right teams dictate to our offense what we do..we take what they give.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 02:17 PM
i think capers/palmer are just scared to let our young offense run free, and i think that showed in the game against the vikings. We were down by so much so soon that they had no choice, and we scored points in a hurry and almost came back to win the game. I DONT blame D.D for the lack of us winning games or the lack of offensive production, if anything he is a good addition to the team, especially beign a forth rounder, any team would be lucky to get what we got out of a guy in the 4th !!!

Fiddy
03-27-2005, 02:21 PM
i think capers/palmer are just scared to let our young offense run free, and i think that showed in the game against the vikings.You mean the game where Davis touched the ball almost every play in the first half and we scored 0 points and then in the 2nd half we decided to throw the ball to Bradford, AJ, Gaff, and Armstrong and gave it to Davis 3 or 4 times and put up 28 ??? Yeah, that was a great game.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 02:27 PM
You mean the game where Davis touched the ball almost every play in the first half and we scored 0 points and then in the 2nd half we decided to throw the ball to Bradford, AJ, Gaff, and Armstrong and gave it to Davis 3 or 4 times and put up 28 ??? Yeah, that was a great game.


oh yeah that game, well if capers coyuld evenly spread out the pass with the run than MAYBE we wouldnt of been so far behind in the first place. I mean we did run the ball A LOT and we were way to predictable. You cant blame that on Davis if the coach calls his number than he has to do what he's supposed to, and if the OL is told to run block they are SUPPOSED to do what they get paid to do. after seeing those stats id say if ya think D.D is not productive enough than your saying LT is not productive enough. i mean what can i say numbers dont lie. So is portis a bad back ? Is LT a bad back ? answer me that !

Fiddy
03-27-2005, 03:00 PM
oh yeah that game, well if capers coyuld evenly spread out the pass with the run than MAYBE we wouldnt of been so far behind in the first place. I mean we did run the ball A LOT and we were way to predictable. You cant blame that on Davis if the coach calls his number than he has to do what he's supposed to, and if the OL is told to run block they are SUPPOSED to do what they get paid to do. after seeing those stats id say if ya think D.D is not productive enough than your saying LT is not productive enough. i mean what can i say numbers dont lie. So is portis a bad back ? Is LT a bad back ? answer me that !I never said Davis wasn't productive.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 03:23 PM
I never said Davis wasn't productive.


yes u might no of on this certain thread but u have, and i dont mind that ya dont think Davis is starting material and right for this team. But i mean for what we have paid for him and where we got him in the draft, it has definatley been a good deal for the organization. Prolly wont be so good though when the texans give him a new contract !

aj.
03-27-2005, 03:30 PM
You mean the game where Davis touched the ball almost every play in the first half and we scored 0 points and then in the 2nd half we decided to throw the ball to Bradford, AJ, Gaff, and Armstrong and gave it to Davis 3 or 4 times and put up 28 ??? Yeah, that was a great game.

oh yeah that game (Vikings), well if capers coyuld evenly spread out the pass with the run than MAYBE we wouldnt of been so far behind in the first place. I mean we did run the ball A LOT and we were way to predictable.

In the first half of the Vikings - Texans game:
The Texans passed 12 times - 7 times to receivers other than Davis - and ran 5 times (not including the spike near the end of the half.
The Vikings ran 42 plays, had 17 first downs, and gained 238 yards
The Vikings were 6/8 in 3rd down efficiency
The VIkings held the time of possession advantage 20:33 to 9:27
The Vikings four drives were 9, 12, 10, and 11 plays with two ending in TD's

If you guys are going to rag on the Texans for something, at least make sure you're ragging on them for the right reason.

In that one I remember saying we were lucky to only be down only 14-0 at half.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 03:33 PM
In the first half of the Vikings - Texans game:
The Texans passed 12 times and ran 5 times (not including the spike near the end of the half.
The Vikings ran 42 plays, had 17 first downs, and gained 238 yards
The Vikings were 6/8 in 3rd down efficiency
The VIkings held the time of possession advantage 20:33 to 9:27
The Vikings four drives were 9, 12, 10, and 11 plays with two ending in TD's

If you guys are going to rag on the Texans for something, at least make sure you're ragging on them for the right reason.

In that one I remember saying we were lucky to only be down only 14-0 at half.


haha i dont even know how much they ran to pass in the game, it was fiddy who said they ran it and ran it and ran it in the first half. I think D.D is one of the best RBs in the league (no suprise)

aj.
03-27-2005, 03:45 PM
DD touched the ball all 5 plays on the first drive (the only drive of the 1st qtr). He had less than half the touches in the 2nd qtr. I don't know about anyone else, but I was as much or more po'd at a defense that couldn't make a stop if their life depended on it as an offense that was one dimensional or unimaginative. Allowing an opponent to run 42 plays in one half is about as bad as it can get. An inept offense played into that somewhat, but the defense allowing itself to be dominated the way it was in the first half factored into it just as much or more.

Fiddy
03-27-2005, 03:56 PM
haha i dont even know how much they ran to pass in the game, it was fiddy who said they ran it and ran it and ran it in the first half. I think D.D is one of the best RBs in the league (no suprise)I didnt say he ran the ball over and over, I said he touched it and he touched it 10 out of 17 times.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 04:06 PM
I didnt say he ran the ball over and over, I said he touched it and he touched it 10 out of 17 times.


sorry i was just responding to what ya said about davis in the first half, and according to AJ he only touched the ball 5 times in the first half. i'm just saying Davis is not the reason we were down so bad after the first half !!! But it was exciting to watch them come back to tie the game :) !

Fiddy
03-27-2005, 04:23 PM
sorry i was just responding to what ya said about davis in the first half, and according to AJ he only touched the ball 5 times in the first half. i'm just saying Davis is not the reason we were down so bad after the first half !!! But it was exciting to watch them come back to tie the game :) !He touched it 5 times on rushing plays and 5 times on passing plays

aj.
03-27-2005, 04:24 PM
according to AJ he only touched the ball 5 times in the first half. Read my post again.

i'm just saying Davis is not the reason we were down so bad after the first half !!That I agree with.

He touched it 5 times on rushing plays and 5 times on passing plays A closer look shows AJ was the leading receiver in the first half of that game with 4 catches for 55 yds. DD was 3 for 25 receiving and had only 7 yards rushing on 4 carries. He was the target on 2 other pass attempts that were incomplete so he either had a touch or was targeted 9 times out of the Texans 17 plays (53%) in the first half excluding the spike which is considerably less than "every play in the first half." The only thing a bit unusual about that was he was the target via pass or run on the first six plays of the game. After that, everyone else started getting into the act.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 04:25 PM
ok well i wasnt talking about him recieveing, D.D is great at catching the ball and getting yards, i'm pretty sure this all started over us talking about him running the ball !

aj.
03-27-2005, 04:42 PM
DD ran the ball 7 out of the first 10 plays at Jax on 12-26. That was a higher percentage than the start of the MN game. I guess that was bad too?

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 04:45 PM
DD ran the ball 7 out of the first 10 plays at Jax on 12-26. I guess that was bad too?

i believe D.D can be our Franchise starting back for years to come, i honestly think that it took the line a little while to adjust to the zone blocking scheme, cause Davis had 4 100 yrd games in the 2nd half of the season and none in the first half, i look for him to pick up where he left off next season and make us a pretty dominant rushing team !

Wolf
03-27-2005, 04:53 PM
i believe D.D can be our Franchise starting back for years to come, i honestly think that it took the line a little while to adjust to the zone blocking scheme, cause Davis had 4 100 yrd games in the 2nd half of the season and none in the first half, i look for him to pick up where he left off next season and make us a pretty dominant rushing team !

what is ironic.. as DD started to do well, Carr's production dropped off(1st of the season he was doing good until we had denver and indy back to back).. you would think that things would open up when the running game is going good.

don't read to much into this, it is a general statement about our offense..kinda weird

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 05:17 PM
yeah i agree with you, but or last 5 games we had a pretty good running game and we were winning !

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
03-27-2005, 08:55 PM
yeah i agree with you, but or last 5 games we had a pretty good running game and we were winning !



We were 2-3 in our last 5 games.

TexansTrueFan
03-27-2005, 08:57 PM
well 2-3 is not so bad considering where the team has been the last 3 season,,i was happy when we got to 2-3 in the beginning of the season, and on the games we won D.D was very solid, and the browns game well that was just a defensive let down, so not much blame on Davis !

Texansbacker
03-27-2005, 09:19 PM
i think capers/palmer are just scared to let our young offense run free, and i think that showed in the game against the vikings. We were down by so much so soon that they had no choice, and we scored points in a hurry and almost came back to win the game. I DONT blame D.D for the lack of us winning games or the lack of offensive production, if anything he is a good addition to the team, especially beign a forth rounder, any team would be lucky to get what we got out of a guy in the 4th !!!


Great Post! Bob McNair & Casserly have made excellent choices with few exceptions.

I cannot wait to see what the draft holds for our team this April.

As for what has been built to this point, I see all signs pointing to the Texans players and coaches having more confidence in the system, in themselves and in each other this season.....which will lead to more games like Minnesota. Plus, I am sure that our D is going continue to improve.

We should see: 1) The o-line become a cohesive unit. 2) DD stay healthy. 3) AJ be AJ. 4) Gaffney continue to improve. 5) Derrick Armstrong come on strong. 6) Joppru explode on the scence. 7) Norris stays healthy. 8) Carr stop worrying about his hair.

Perhaps not number 8, but seven out of eight is worth hoping for....

mean mark8
03-28-2005, 01:58 AM
Great Post! Bob McNair & Casserly have made excellent choices with few exceptions.

I cannot wait to see what the draft holds for our team this April.

As for what has been built to this point, I see all signs pointing to the Texans players and coaches having more confidence in the system, in themselves and in each other this season.....which will lead to more games like Minnesota. Plus, I am sure that our D is going continue to improve.

We should see: 1) The o-line become a cohesive unit. 2) DD stay healthy. 3) AJ be AJ. 4) Gaffney continue to improve. 5) Derrick Armstrong come on strong. 6) Joppru explode on the scence. 7) Norris stays healthy. 8) Carr stop worrying about his hair.

Perhaps not number 8, but seven out of eight is worth hoping for....
I agree that I can't wait to see what happens this year. I'm hoping that this year will be for Carr what last year was for Brees. According to Palmer, he only had about 20-25% of the offense in for the first year. I haven't really seen too much added play-wise in the next 2. I'm hoping this is the year he shows us the whole thing. I mean these guys are professionals coach Palmer, you can stop babying them. What I'm more afraid of is that his offense is unimaginative. Yeah, I know we ran 3 reverses in one game and then tried a reverse pass I think Gaffney threw in the same contest, but once is imaginative, twice maybe could catch them again, 3 and 4 times is stupid. I want to see us get a real pass protecting left tackle - please, please, pretty please. Then let's include all of the plays as eligible for a game plan. If I see Carr role out one more time to the right trying to throw to the TE w/ a WR running a deeper route, I'll run down and tackle him myself.

O.G.
03-30-2005, 09:34 AM
I think DD is damn good back. Last year her was 11th in the League in rushing with almost 1200 yrds (1188yrds) and 3rd in the NFL in total yards among running backs with almost 1800 (1776yrds) total yards of offense. I think we over react when it comes to asking for a back that will rush for 1500 yards and 20 TD's and have over 2000 yrds offense. Only one did that this year, Tiki Barber (2,096 yrds). DD was tied for 4th in the NFL TD's with J. Bettis, T. Barber and W. Mc Gahee with 13 TD's. The most TD's in the NFL were 17TD's with LT followed by S. Alexander with 16TD's and P. Holmes with 14TD's. DD's not too bad at all.

Mr Shush
03-30-2005, 12:33 PM
Stats aren't everything.

I don't think anyone on this site is denying that Davis is a good back or that we got exceptional value in picking him up for a 4th rounder. I also think, whatever the stats say, that you really can't compare him to Thomlinson. And from a run-blocking point of view, our line's not too bad. It's only the pass-protection that sucks (in reality, we're even worse than the Giants - it ought to be a lot easier to protect Carr than Warner or a rookie).