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View Full Version : Any way you look at, we're in for a rough ride.


gtexan02
08-17-2010, 03:29 PM
There was a cool article on ESPN this afternoon about how the MSM's view of Strength of Schedule was pretty ridiculous, given that teams change a lot from year to year.

According to the MSM, our SOS this season is tops in the league.

The article cites a different, more advanced method of calculating predicted strength of schedule.

Guess where we end up? #2.

Ouch.

Bring it on.

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=5470517

A couple of weeks ago, on this podcast with Teddy Covers, we were talking about NFL season win total bets. Teddy explained that his formula for figuring out strength of schedule -- one of the key factors in deciding whether or not a team will exceed expectations -- is dramatically different than how established outlets like ESPN calculate it.

The MSM takes the cumulative wins of a team's opponents, converts it to a winning percentage and then ranks the records 1-32. For example, according to ESPN.com, the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans have the most difficult schedules in the NFL this season. Their opponents won 140 combined games last season and had a cumulative win percentage of .547. The Arizona Cardinals have the easiest schedule.

But that's simple math -- and as useful when making predictions as a crystal ball (unless the Mayans made it). That formula does not account for any improvements (draft, free agency, coaching changes) or decreases (lost free agents, coaching changes) in quality. It's ludicrous making decisions based on the widely accepted NFL strength of schedule.

If you're going to make your living gambling, you need more complex formulas that help you sleep at night.

Most other teams moved around quite a bit. Not us. Oh well

Brisco_County
08-17-2010, 05:05 PM
It doesn't matter what formula is used, we're playing the NFC East.

brakos82
08-17-2010, 05:08 PM
It doesn't matter what formula is used, we're playing the NFC East.

And Indy twice.

BSofA04
08-17-2010, 05:12 PM
And Baltimore, and the Jets....rough!

But if we're as improved as I think we are, we should be in a position to win each game. Hopefully the guys have learned how to gut out close games.

Hervoyel
08-17-2010, 05:33 PM
Wait until it all shakes out. Good teams get bad and bad teams rise up. Strength of schedule is important but if we're any good we handle it and win the games we have to win. If we're not then we'll lose a bunch of games no matter who we play.

In 8 years of football I've seen the Texans lose plenty of times to teams they should have beaten. I just can't get all worked up over a schedule full of teams that are supposed to beat us.

Dutchrudder
08-17-2010, 05:41 PM
I think the NFL traditional SOS is a good way of looking back on the year and determining how hard your schedule really was, with a few exceptions. (Jets) The Texans at 9-7 with the hardest schedule in the league is somewhat promising.

As for 2010, I like this way of calculating SOS. I often pick my Fantasy defense based on SOS, or make late round picks with SOS in mind. Sometimes the matchups are just too good to pass up.

The Pencil Neck
08-17-2010, 05:52 PM
SOS is worthless to me.

I don't care who's on our schedule. It's a new season. We must dominate.

Hooston Texan
08-17-2010, 05:53 PM
We caught a bad break insofar as we landed what I think could be the two best teams in the AFC this season--the Jets and Ravens--due to our second-place finish. I think the Colts got a much easier draw with their first place finish--Patriots and Bengals. Heck, even Tennessee's third-place slate of Miami and Pittsburgh could prove tougher than Indy's.

On the other hand, the only way to get a seat at the big boy table is to inflict some lumps on the other big boys. Unless some teams on our schedule suffer bad luck along the way, we'll get that chance.

On another level, a really tough slate this season may be exactly what this still inconsistent-team needs to permanently push them to a higher level of play. We seem to play to the level of the competition (few of our games are blowouts in either direction); if that is indeed our tendency, maybe we need to face a procession of strong teams to force our guys to play tough every week. Then, when the patsies return to our schedule, we'll have the muscle memory developed to bring the thunder on them as well.

Double Barrel
08-17-2010, 06:06 PM
SOS is worthless to me.

I don't care who's on our schedule. It's a new season. We must dominate.

My thoughts, as well. All I know is that every new season we have to play 16 games against NFL teams. And none of them are going to be a cakewalk.

But, looking ahead is what talking heads and fans do, so here we are. :boogereater:

Rey
08-17-2010, 06:11 PM
I thought this was a thread in response to Laurens flight thread...


I kid, I kid...


But yeah..Doesn't matter what the schedule says on Aug 17. All that matters is what the record says when it's all over and done with.