PDA

View Full Version : D - Please Show Up For Real This Year


CloakNNNdagger
07-17-2010, 07:41 PM
Predictability of our D last year killed us in many ways. This lengthy piece goes into depth concerning things that some of us recognized and cringed at, and for which many of us screamed at our TVs. And for those that didn't appreciate specifics, but still screamed at their TVs, you may now recognize why.

Frank Bush And The Aggressive Defense That Never Was: A Case Study Of Good 4-3 Defenses (http://www.battleredblog.com/2010/7/15/1566975/frank-bush-and-the-aggressive)

CloakNNNdagger
07-17-2010, 08:08 PM
Mods. Could you please ad "D:" in front of the thread title. It would identify the subject of the thread more appropriately. I accidentally left it off when typing it in. Thanks.

Lucky
07-17-2010, 09:06 PM
Predictability of our D last year killed us in many ways.
I didn't see the defense killing the team's chances, last season. Aside from the initial 3 games, where the defense ran around like headless chickens, the defense performed OK to very good. I don't think you can point to any of the last 5 losses as say that was on the defense.

Regarding the linked article, the author suggests that the Texans defense under Bush is not "complex enough" and too predictable. While previously pointing to the some top 4-3 defenses stats, and inferring that better defenses are single-minded. Well, what is it? Are the Texans too predictable? Or are they not focused on what they do best? And if the initial 3 games stats are thrown out (where the coaches and players were clueless), what would the numbers for the Texans defense look like?

Maybe the thread title should read, "D - Please show up for the start of the season. And bring the offense with you."

CloakNNNdagger
07-17-2010, 09:29 PM
I didn't see the defense killing the team's chances, last season. Aside from the initial 3 games, where the defense ran around like headless chickens, the defense performed OK to very good. I don't think you can point to any of the last 5 losses as say that was on the defense.

Regarding the linked article, the author suggests that the Texans defense under Bush is not "complex enough" and too predictable. While previously pointing to the some top 4-3 defenses stats, and inferring that better defenses are single-minded. Well, what is it? Are the Texans too predictable? Or are they not focused on what they do best? And if the initial 3 games stats are thrown out (where the coaches and players were clueless), what would the numbers for the Texans defense look like?

Maybe the thread title should read, "D - Please show up for the start of the season. And bring the offense with you."

I think that if you choose to be a "predictable" D, you have to have very solid D to be able to overcome your opponent with superior strength and/or precision. Last year, we were pretty predicatble, but not generally superior in either strength or precision. This year to be more successful, we WILL have to choose which route IT is.

BSofA04
07-17-2010, 10:12 PM
What the article doesn't mention is when we blitzed. Because of this, I believe the numbers may be misleading. For example...

During the Richard Smith era, I'd see us blitz heavy during the first half of the game. Come second half when things were getting tight, he'd back off and play scared...errr...nickle defense. So for the sake of numbers, let's say we blitzed 18 times that game with 12 coming the first half.

Now during the Bush tenure, Frank had us coming from all angles late in the game. Blitz pressure caused Brady to throw the game changing interception to Bernard Pollard last season late in the fourth. So again for the sake of numbers, we blitzed 18 times that game with 8 coming in the first half and 10 coming in the second.

Both will show 18 blitzes/game, but it's when Bush called it that mattered more.

awtysst
07-17-2010, 10:13 PM
Step 1
I wanted to break down the points per quarter of each game to get a sense of what is happening.

09/13/2009 New York Jets L, 24-7
Q1: 3, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:7. Total points was only 24 but it was an absolute beat down.

09/20/2009 @ Tennessee Titans W, 34-31
Q1: 14, Q2:10, Q3:7, Q4:0. The uncovered CJ play is all we need to think about. SLOPPY play throughout

09/27/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars L, 31-24
Q1: 3, Q2:14, Q3:7, Q4:7. After the first half the D came apart giving up 28 points in 2,3,4th quarters. No good.

10/04/2009 Oakland Raiders W, 29-6
Q1: 3, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 6 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard for a full game.

10/11/2009 @ Arizona Cardinals L, 28-21
Q1: 7, Q2:14, Q3:0, Q4:7(int). A tale of 2 halves. First half D gave up 21 points. Cannot give up 21 points in a half and get a W. 2nd half, D gives up 0. Looks like D was flat in first half (along with the offense).

10/18/2009 @ Cincinnati Bengals W, 28-17
Q1: 0, Q2:17, Q3:0, Q4:0. Gave up 17 points in the second quarter. A win, but 17 points at the half is not good.

10/25/2009 San Francisco 49ers W, 24-21
Q1: 0, Q2:0, Q3:7, Q4:14. Yikes. Clean sheet in first half and then 21 second half points. D came out strong and fizzled out.

11/01/2009 @ Buffalo Bills W, 31-10
Q1: 7, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard outside of first drive. Played hard whole game

11/08/2009 @ Indianapolis Colts L, 20-17
Q1: 10, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:7. Very strong effort to keep Manning to only 20 points. Came out a bit flat in the first, but played 3 quarters hard.

11/23/2009 (Mon.)Tennessee Titans L, 20-17
Q1: 0, Q2:14, Q3:3, Q4:3. Giving up 14 points in a quarter is inexcusable. If they kept it at 10 or less, Texans win. Played 3 quarters hard.

11/29/2009 Indianapolis Colts L, 35-27
Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:21(1int). D gave up 14 in the 4th, but that is still too much. Played 3 quarters.

12/06/2009 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L, 23-18
Q1: 3, Q2:17, Q3:3, Q4:0. Sensing a pattern here? The team is playing 3 quarters so many times.

12/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks W, 34-7
Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 7 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played 4 quarters


12/20/2009 @ St. Louis Rams W, 16-13
Q1: 0, Q2:10, Q3:3, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, 3 in th second half. played hard.

12/27/2009 @ Miami Dolphins W, 27-20
Q1: 0, Q2:3, Q3:7, Q4:10. gave up 17 points in the second half. Not good.

01/03/2010 New England Patriots W, 34-27
Q1: 7, Q2:6, Q3:7(int), Q4:7. Gave up points each quarter. a tough offense, but we need to do better than 27 points given up.

Step 2
I decided to break down points given up by quarter to see if a pattern emerges.

Q1: 57
Q2: 135
Q3: 54
Q4: 69

Step 3
Looks like we are giving up tremendous amounts of points in the 2nd quarter. For whatever reason we seem to not play very hard during that quarter. If you want to say its skewed becuase of the first three games, look at the breakdown without the first three

Q1:37
Q2:104
Q3:33
Q4:55

The discrepancy is still there. From this data I conclude that the Texans essentially played 3 quarters of defense. While it was not always consistent, statistically the Texans played far poorer in the 2nd quarter as compared to the other ones. The other quarters are likely not statistically significantly different. So, the for the Texans to think playoffs they must play hard in all 4 quarters.

Now here is the kicker. The Texans were in the 54-69 point range per quarter for 1,3,and 4. If we give them a 69 for quarter 2 and add 14 points(points for pick 6's), the total comes out to 263 total points. That would work out to 16.44 points per game. That number would qualify for 4th in the league(using last year's data). As is the Texans 2nd quarter had them at 333 or 20.8 ppg, good for 17th. Thus if they played at the same level through all 4 quarters they would have had the 4th best D in terms up giving up points, which is the most important D statistic afterall. A stingy 16.44 ppg would be more than enough for our offense and we would certainly have been in the playoffs. Look at the numbers. We played a full f game defense 3 times. And we won all three of them.

Therefore: the Texans D was fantastic outside of the 2nd quarter. If they can fix that issue, they will have a strong Defense.

JB
07-17-2010, 10:25 PM
Step 1
I wanted to break down the points per quarter of each game to get a sense of what is happening.

09/13/2009 New York Jets L, 24-7
Q1: 3, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:7. Total points was only 24 but it was an absolute beat down.

09/20/2009 @ Tennessee Titans W, 34-31
Q1: 14, Q2:10, Q3:7, Q4:0. The uncovered CJ play is all we need to think about. SLOPPY play throughout

09/27/2009 Jacksonville Jaguars L, 31-24
Q1: 3, Q2:14, Q3:7, Q4:7. After the first half the D came apart giving up 28 points in 2,3,4th quarters. No good.

10/04/2009 Oakland Raiders W, 29-6
Q1: 3, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 6 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard for a full game.

10/11/2009 @ Arizona Cardinals L, 28-21
Q1: 7, Q2:14, Q3:0, Q4:7(int). A tale of 2 halves. First half D gave up 21 points. Cannot give up 21 points in a half and get a W. 2nd half, D gives up 0. Looks like D was flat in first half (along with the offense).

10/18/2009 @ Cincinnati Bengals W, 28-17
Q1: 0, Q2:17, Q3:0, Q4:0. Gave up 17 points in the second quarter. A win, but 17 points at the half is not good.

10/25/2009 San Francisco 49ers W, 24-21
Q1: 0, Q2:0, Q3:7, Q4:14. Yikes. Clean sheet in first half and then 21 second half points. D came out strong and fizzled out.

11/01/2009 @ Buffalo Bills W, 31-10
Q1: 7, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played hard outside of first drive. Played hard whole game

11/08/2009 @ Indianapolis Colts L, 20-17
Q1: 10, Q2:3, Q3:0, Q4:7. Very strong effort to keep Manning to only 20 points. Came out a bit flat in the first, but played 3 quarters hard.

11/23/2009 (Mon.)Tennessee Titans L, 20-17
Q1: 0, Q2:14, Q3:3, Q4:3. Giving up 14 points in a quarter is inexcusable. If they kept it at 10 or less, Texans win. Played 3 quarters hard.

11/29/2009 Indianapolis Colts L, 35-27
Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:7, Q4:21(1int). D gave up 14 in the 4th, but that is still too much. Played 3 quarters.

12/06/2009 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L, 23-18
Q1: 3, Q2:17, Q3:3, Q4:0. Sensing a pattern here? The team is playing 3 quarters so many times.

12/13/2009 Seattle Seahawks W, 34-7
Q1: 0, Q2:7, Q3:0, Q4:0. Dominant D. 7 points in first half, clean sheet in second half. Played 4 quarters


12/20/2009 @ St. Louis Rams W, 16-13
Q1: 0, Q2:10, Q3:3, Q4:0. Dominant D. 10 points in first half, 3 in th second half. played hard.

12/27/2009 @ Miami Dolphins W, 27-20
Q1: 0, Q2:3, Q3:7, Q4:10. gave up 17 points in the second half. Not good.

01/03/2010 New England Patriots W, 34-27
Q1: 7, Q2:6, Q3:7(int), Q4:7. Gave up points each quarter. a tough offense, but we need to do better than 27 points given up.

Step 2
I decided to break down points given up by quarter to see if a pattern emerges.

Q1: 57
Q2: 135
Q3: 54
Q4: 69

Step 3
Looks like we are giving up tremendous amounts of points in the 2nd quarter. For whatever reason we seem to not play very hard during that quarter. If you want to say its skewed becuase of the first three games, look at the breakdown without the first three

Q1:37
Q2:104
Q3:33
Q4:55

The discrepancy is still there. From this data I conclude that the Texans essentially played 3 quarters of defense. While it was not always consistent, statistically the Texans played far poorer in the 2nd quarter as compared to the other ones. The other quarters are likely not statistically significantly different. So, the for the Texans to think playoffs they must play hard in all 4 quarters.

Now here is the kicker. The Texans were in the 54-69 point range per quarter for 1,3,and 4. If we give them a 69 for quarter 2 and add 14 points(points for pick 6's), the total comes out to 263 total points. That would work out to 16.44 points per game. That number would qualify for 4th in the league(using last year's data). As is the Texans 2nd quarter had them at 333 or 20.8 ppg, good for 17th. Thus if they played at the same level through all 4 quarters they would have had the 4th best D in terms up giving up points, which is the most important D statistic afterall. A stingy 16.44 ppg would be more than enough for our offense and we would certainly have been in the playoffs. Look at the numbers. We played a full f game defense 3 times. And we won all three of them.

Therefore: the Texans D was fantastic outside of the 2nd quarter. If they can fix that issue, they will have a strong Defense.

Great job breaking this down! Rep to you man. I know this took a lot of effort on your part. Much appreciated!

Look for our defense to be more consistant this year. If we can hold teams under 17 pts on average I think we will have a very good year.

awtysst
07-17-2010, 10:30 PM
Great job breaking this down! Rep to you man. I know this took a lot of effort on your part. Much appreciated!

Look for our defense to be more consistant this year. If we can hold teams under 17 pts on average I think we will have a very good year.

Thanks!
Yeah, I love sports stats and subscribe to the stats approach to sports analysis. If I could find a program, I'd probably enroll and earn a Master's degree in Sports Statistics FOR FUN!

JB
07-17-2010, 10:36 PM
Thanks!
Yeah, I love sports stats and subscribe to the stats approach to sports analysis. If I could find a program, I'd probably enroll and earn a Master's degree in Sports Statistics FOR FUN!

That's pretty awesome man! Do you have the tools to break down our 3rd down defense? I think this is where we were lacking last year, at least on 3rd and long. Seems like I remember a lot of 3rd and 6 or more going for 8 or more.

awtysst
07-17-2010, 10:47 PM
That's pretty awesome man! Do you have the tools to break down our 3rd down defense? I think this is where we were lacking last year, at least on 3rd and long. Seems like I remember a lot of 3rd and 6 or more going for 8 or more.

I would love to do that. The thing is i do not have any games recorded. So I would need to find the results of each play the offense and d ran, and it must tell me the down, and the result.

ESPN has a stat for each team called, "3rd down efficiency" and that is broken down by game. For example in the Jets game the Jets were 10/18. Meaning they converted 10 3rd downs out of a possible 18(or 56% of the time). In contrast the Texans converted a meager 3/10 or 30%. However as you can see this stat does not take distance into account. Did the Jets convert 10/18 when they averaged a 3rd and 3 or less whereas the Texans converted 3/10 when they averaged a 3rd and 7 in comparison?

But without the knowledge of downs and having access to that type of info, it would be hard for me to come up with some numbers for your request. I would only be able to speak to 3rd down efficiency and I am not really sure that is what you are after.

CloakNNNdagger
07-17-2010, 10:54 PM
Step 1
I wanted to break down the points per quarter of each game to get a sense of what is happening.
Looks like we are giving up tremendous amounts of points in the 2nd quarter. For whatever reason we seem to not play very hard during that quarter. If you want to say its skewed becuase of the first three games, look at the breakdown without the first three


The discrepancy is still there. From this data I conclude that the Texans essentially played 3 quarters of defense. While it was not always consistent, statistically the Texans played far poorer in the 2nd quarter as compared to the other ones. The other quarters are likely not statistically significantly different. So, the for the Texans to think playoffs they must play hard in all 4 quarters.

Now here is the kicker. The Texans were in the 54-69 point range per quarter for 1,3,and 4. If we give them a 69 for quarter 2 and add 14 points(points for pick 6's), the total comes out to 263 total points. That would work out to 16.44 points per game. That number would qualify for 4th in the league(using last year's data). As is the Texans 2nd quarter had them at 333 or 20.8 ppg, good for 17th. Thus if they played at the same level through all 4 quarters they would have had the 4th best D in terms up giving up points, which is the most important D statistic afterall. A stingy 16.44 ppg would be more than enough for our offense and we would certainly have been in the playoffs. Look at the numbers. We played a full f game defense 3 times. And we won all three of them.

Therefore: the Texans D was fantastic outside of the 2nd quarter. If they can fix that issue, they will have a strong Defense.

Great effort on the breakdown. One thing that somewhat "enhances" the appearance of our D and has not really been factored in is the level of D played against some generally very mediocre and poor offensive teams (at the time we played them). Any thoughts on "adjustment" for this variable?

awtysst
07-17-2010, 11:01 PM
Great effort on the breakdown. One thing that somewhat "enhances" the appearance of our D and has not really been factored in is the level of D played against some generally very mediocre and poor offensive teams (at the time we played them). Any thoughts on "adjustment" for this variable?

Excellent point Doc. I was thinking another way to breakdown could be to isolate teams a couple of ways:
1) breakdown between under .500, .500, and over .500 teams and see if there is still a difference by quarter
2) breakdown between low third, mid third, and high third offenses by quarter.
3) breakdown by playoff vs non playoff teams in terms of points per quarter.

Perhaps one of those will give us a better understanding of our team's D.

CloakNNNdagger
07-17-2010, 11:07 PM
Excellent point Doc. I was thinking another way to breakdown could be to isolate teams a couple of ways:
1) breakdown between under .500, .500, and over .500 teams and see if there is still a difference by quarter
2) breakdown between low third, mid third, and high third offenses by quarter.
3) breakdown by playoff vs non playoff teams in terms of points per quarter.

Perhaps one of those will give us a better understanding of our team's D.

That would be great. But some teams were specifically very much more vulnerable at the time we played them than they were at other times in the season, and that would need to be taken into account.

awtysst
07-17-2010, 11:11 PM
That would be great. But some teams were specifically very much more vulnerable at the time we played them than they were at other times in the season, and that would need to be taken into account.

I will have to think and see if I can come up with a fair metric to take that into consideration. Not sure how as of yet.

beerlover
07-17-2010, 11:12 PM
That would be great. But some teams were specifically very much more vulnerable at the time we played them than they were at other times in the season, and that would need to be taken into account.

timing is everything which is why the Texans first four are not favorable. excuse me I just had a very bitter pale ale & its called "Reality Bitter" we best be use to it seems we get alot of it around here :drunk:

awtysst
07-17-2010, 11:15 PM
That would be great. But some teams were specifically very much more vulnerable at the time we played them than they were at other times in the season, and that would need to be taken into account.

I was just thinking about personal. For example as we all know, we lost our two starting guards on offense and our TE. Perhaps looking at the players who played each game and determining if significant players were missing against us would be one way to do that. Off the top of your head do you remember any team missing specific significant players when we played them?

Texanmike02
07-17-2010, 11:31 PM
I think one thing you need to do is to apply a multiplier to consider who is scoring points. I don't know if you have this in access or excel but I'm thinking take the pts scored by a team / average pts scored by all teams.

Just an idea.

Mike

awtysst
07-17-2010, 11:37 PM
I am going to create a new thread entitled Texans Defense Stats and start crunching numbers tomorrow or so.

Lets see if we can get any interesting data!

And of course if anyone wants to add their own stats to the thread they are of course welcome to do so!

JB
07-17-2010, 11:41 PM
I think one thing you need to do is to apply a multiplier to consider who is scoring points. I don't know if you have this in access or excel but I'm thinking take the pts scored by a team / average pts scored by all teams.

Just an idea.

Mike

I think a better look would be to take what a team scored against us in different conditions (qtr, dwn, etc.) and compare it to how they did against the rest of the league.

TheRealJoker
07-17-2010, 11:41 PM
In order to play a "predictable defense", like for example, Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 D while he was the Bucs DC, we must generate pressure using only the DL.

If we can pressure the QB with just the 4 DL, we don't have to change much of anything scheme-wise from week to week (because the D already accomplishes the toughest goal to stop opposing offenses which is to pressure the opposing QB).

If the DL cannot do that you have to run a more complicated defense that changes week to week like Greg Williams had running with the Saints last season. Check out this article to read what Matt Ryan had to say about Williams' schemes:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81926da4/article/talking-to-qbs-of-past-and-present-highlights-changing-views

"We also talked about playing division opponents a second time and how much defensive coordinators changed schemes. Ryan pointed out a couple of exceptions. He said the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay true to who they are defensively from one game to the next and don't make radical scheme changes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints bring a whole new set of pressures and looks the second time around in an attempt to confuse the offense. Rodgers said the Bears threw some new wrinkles at him with coverages the second time and it required some adjustments during the game."

JB
07-17-2010, 11:50 PM
In order to play a successful "predictable defense", like for example, Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2 D while he was the Bucs DC, we must generate pressure using only the DL.

If we can pressure the QB with just the 4 DL, we don't have to change much of anything scheme-wise from week to week (because the D already accomplishes the toughest goal to stop opposing offenses which is to pressure the opposing QB).

If the DL cannot do that you have to run a more complicated defense that changes week to week like Greg Williams had running with the Saints last season. Check out this article to read what Matt Ryan had to say about Williams' schemes:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81926da4/article/talking-to-qbs-of-past-and-present-highlights-changing-views

"We also talked about playing division opponents a second time and how much defensive coordinators changed schemes. Ryan pointed out a couple of exceptions. He said the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay true to who they are defensively from one game to the next and don't make radical scheme changes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints bring a whole new set of pressures and looks the second time around in an attempt to confuse the offense. Rodgers said the Bears threw some new wrinkles at him with coverages the second time and it required some adjustments during the game."


Fixed it for you

CloakNNNdagger
07-18-2010, 09:07 AM
Excellent point Doc. I was thinking another way to breakdown could be to isolate teams a couple of ways:
1) breakdown between under .500, .500, and over .500 teams and see if there is still a difference by quarter
2) breakdown between low third, mid third, and high third offenses by quarter.
3) breakdown by playoff vs non playoff teams in terms of points per quarter.

Perhaps one of those will give us a better understanding of our team's D.

A driving force behind my point is that it has been well-chronicled that the difficulty of schedule for the Texans is markedly greater for the 2010 scheduled compared to the 2009 season. The offenses (as well as the defenses) we face this year will be relatively formidable.

awtysst
07-18-2010, 09:34 AM
A driving force behind my point is that it has been well-chronicled that the difficulty of schedule for the Texans is markedly greater for the 2010 scheduled compared to the 2009 season. The offenses (as well as the defenses) we face this year will be relatively formidable.

I have a response to that in fact. I need to write out a few additional thoughts, but the new thread with the data should be up this morning.

playa465
07-18-2010, 10:17 AM
A driving force behind my point is that it has been well-chronicled that the difficulty of schedule for the Texans is markedly greater for the 2010 scheduled compared to the 2009 season. The offenses (as well as the defenses) we face this year will be relatively formidable.

and this scares the bejeezus out of me...we can not afford to play 4 solid quarters against mediocre teams only. The Texans 2010 schedule is truly going to test where we are as a team. If we can punch Peyton in the mouth in week 1, it will go a long way for setting the tone for our D. It has to start with the front 4, its not only about getting QB pressures its about winning the battle on the LOS run or pass. Predictable or not if the front 4 disrupts the timing of a play whether run or pass it goes a long way towards the defense stopping the other teams O. Excuse time is over!!!

awtysst
07-18-2010, 10:56 AM
and this scares the bejeezus out of me...we can not afford to play 4 solid quarters against mediocre teams only. The Texans 2010 schedule is truly going to test where we are as a team. If we can punch Peyton in the mouth in week 1, it will go a long way for setting the tone for our D. It has to start with the front 4, its not only about getting QB pressures its about winning the battle on the LOS run or pass. Predictable or not if the front 4 disrupts the timing of a play whether run or pass it goes a long way towards the defense stopping the other teams O. Excuse time is over!!!

Please look at the updated thread: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1474903#post1474903

Maddict5
07-18-2010, 11:51 AM
Blitz pressure caused Brady to throw the game changing interception to Bernard Pollard last season late in the fourth.

iirc that wasnt a blitz at all just a good stunt between mario and antonio i think

Imatexanfan
07-18-2010, 12:12 PM
I understand that MOST of the cause was our D but we were close enough to win several times or tie to go into OT but our kicker....ahhh damn u Kris Brown!!

BSofA04
07-18-2010, 01:10 PM
I understand that MOST of the cause was our D but we were close enough to win several times or tie to go into OT but our kicker....ahhh damn u Kris Brown!!

Your sig is a good drinking chant. I know it a little different...

Here's to you, here's to me, the best of friends we'll ever be, and if we ever disagree, well f--- you and here's to me!

Imatexanfan
07-18-2010, 03:09 PM
Your sig is a good drinking chant. I know it a little different...

Here's to you, here's to me, the best of friends we'll ever be, and if we ever disagree, well f--- you and here's to me!

I know, I love it. It was on I Hope they Serve Beer in Hell by Tucker Max, love the chant lol

thunderkyss
07-18-2010, 04:27 PM
Step 1
I wanted to break down the points per quarter of each game to get a sense of what is happening.

Now here is the kicker. The Texans were in the 54-69 point range per quarter for 1,3,and 4. If we give them a 69 for quarter 2 and add 14 points(points for pick 6's), the total comes out to 263 total points. That would work out to 16.44 points per game. That number would qualify for 4th in the league(using last year's data).

Therefore: the Texans D was fantastic outside of the 2nd quarter. If they can fix that issue, they will have a strong Defense.

First of all, thank you for making this thread worth reading. The original link CnD pointed us to was pretty pathetic if you ask me. He's basically judging the quality of the defense by the number of blitzes we ran. Just because we run 9.346 blitzes a game doesn't make you predictable. And yes, it was too simple, and easy to figure out... that's what simplifying means. I would imagine F.Bush is going to mix it up some for 2010.

Now, I won't deny the point you're making, it seems plausible. But I wouldn't blame it all on the D. As a whole, the team had problems figuring out when they were going to play. A missed field goal, could have turned into a touch-back, giving our boys 80 yards to stop the opposing D. Holding on to the ball, or not throwing an INT could have led to a score, taking the wind out of the opposing O.

The bottom line, is we shot ourselves in the foot, whether it was the O, or the D (I remember Kubiak's press conference, where he mentioned the number of times we had a lead at the end of the 4th Qtr, or the half, and our defense gave it up). The difference, I think, is that we have players, that we can see coming into their own. Not your Jason Babins, or Travis Johnsons, or Dunta Robinsons, and Glen Earls; we've got real players making real plays.

& we've been looking for leadership on the field, defensively, we've got 3 or 4 bona-fide leaders that I think will make it happen in 2010.

Just so you don't get my wrong, I loved your post... great read.

thunderkyss
07-18-2010, 04:30 PM
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81926da4/article/talking-to-qbs-of-past-and-present-highlights-changing-views

"We also talked about playing division opponents a second time and how much defensive coordinators changed schemes. Ryan pointed out a couple of exceptions. He said the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay true to who they are defensively from one game to the next and don't make radical scheme changes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints bring a whole new set of pressures and looks the second time around in an attempt to confuse the offense. Rodgers said the Bears threw some new wrinkles at him with coverages the second time and it required some adjustments during the game."

I would think that statement would mean something had he played Greg Williams more than twice. Otherwise, he's just repeating what he's heard.

thunderkyss
07-18-2010, 04:33 PM
and this scares the bejeezus out of me...we can not afford to play 4 solid quarters against mediocre teams only. The Texans 2010 schedule is truly going to test where we are as a team. If we can punch Peyton in the mouth in week 1, it will go a long way for setting the tone for our D.

We've been punching that SOB square in the mouth for the last 4 years.

What we need to do, is be able to crush his spine while he's laying on the ground, so he can't get back up.




Not literally of course.

spurstexanstros
07-20-2010, 02:56 PM
I didn't see the defense killing the team's chances, last season. Aside from the initial 3 games, where the defense ran around like headless chickens, the defense performed OK to very good. I don't think you can point to any of the last 5 losses as say that was on the defense.

Regarding the linked article, the author suggests that the Texans defense under Bush is not "complex enough" and too predictable. While previously pointing to the some top 4-3 defenses stats, and inferring that better defenses are single-minded. Well, what is it? Are the Texans too predictable? Or are they not focused on what they do best? And if the initial 3 games stats are thrown out (where the coaches and players were clueless), what would the numbers for the Texans defense look like?

Maybe the thread title should read, "D - Please show up for the start of the season. And bring the offense with you."
Ditto....

It wasnt the d that cost the Texans, sure we would like more turnovers and sacks but they gave the team what they needed...defensive stops on third down ( i believe they led the league in that stat for a while..THANK GOD )

What cost the Texans was the 5 games decided on the last possession. 3 turnovers and two missed field goals. The defense got the ball back into the o's hands but the offense dropped the ball...literally.