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View Full Version : Analyzing the Texans Intent @ #13


Number19
03-05-2005, 04:20 PM
Some weeks ago I recall either Casserly or Capers making the comment that, drafting at the #13 spot, we would get value with the pick or, if they felt it was not there, would trade out of the position.

Now with the re-signing of Payne, our starting DL is set with Walker, Payne and Smith. This seems to rule out drafting DL at #13 - it would not represent value. A player drafted this high should make an immediate impact.

It also seems the team is not overly concerned with upgrading our OL with high round talent.

Our starting DB's seem to be set with Robinson, Glenn, Earl and Coleman.

The coaches seem satisfied with our receivers : Johnson, Gaffney, and Armstrong. There have been comments that the team is not interested in another "impact" receiver.

I think the coaches feel Joppru is finally recovered and ready to make a contribution. They seem to be willing to go with our current TE's.

This seems to leave two positions where the team might concentrate their attention as to getting the most value from our first pick : LB and RB.

Although we have just signed Greenwood, the team has also given Foreman and Sharper permission to find other employment. This seems to leave a hole at one ILB position, although Wong could move inside.

I haven't heard a word regarding the RB position. This in itself is suspicious to me. The coaches, I believe, are satisfied with DD, but they just may take a look at a quality RB they feel may be more durable - but not at #13, IMO.

Finally, I would reconsider CB. With the importance of the position in today's game, and with the advancing age of Glenn, I think the team will give serious attention to this possibility with a high pick.

When everything is taken into consideration, I think, if we do not trade down, our first pick will either be CB or ILB - and between these two, might the team seriously be targeting DJ?

How about this scenerio:

If DJ is still on the board after the Bears pick at #4, the Texans offering our #13 pick (1150 pts) + our #47 pick (430 pts) + our #109 pick (76 pts) (total:1656 pts) to move up to the #5 or #6 pick.

This would leave the team with two third round picks plus maybe another 3rd for a Sharper trade. One might be used to add talent to the OL - Dan Buenning may still be on the board - and I like CB with another pick - Dominque Foxworth may still be there.

Do you think the coaches are envisioning this starting LB rotation : Babin. Greenwood, Derrick Johnson and (Wong, Peek, Cheatwood)?

For this presentation, I have not outlined my preferences, but rather what I've analyzed the Texans will do. Given all the statements and hints coming from the team, I think it's Johnson (trade up), CB (at #13) or trade down.

The only real question, in my mind, is : if a targeted CB is available at #13, do we take him or trade down. And this will be strictly determined by the value obtained in trade. There simply may not be a significant offer by another team wanting to trade up. And since we have no way of knowing this, I am assuming such an offer is not made and we take the CB. Only if all targeted CB's are off the board will we take any other, less significant, offer to trade down.

Grid
03-05-2005, 04:26 PM
the fact that we did not make a big play for LaMont Jordan makes me wonder if RB is high on our list.

ILB could be the biggest impact player for us in the draft, if Sharper leaves.

and on the DL.. they are aging and will be leaving us here eventually..or getting too old to be effective.. we need Dlinemen badly.

I think there are too many unknowns at this point to say what our intentions may be. I honestly think we could draft any player at #13.. other than QB or kicker.. and find a valid use for them.

Nawzer
03-05-2005, 04:34 PM
I wonder what the Texans think of Nebraska CB Fabian Washington. He burned the turf during the combines and I have seen him play a few times. He seemed like a really good player. With the 40 times he put up he might be a possible first rounder. Do you think that the Texans may trade down and pick Washington?

Marcus
03-05-2005, 04:46 PM
First of all, I don't think that Casserly will trade up for a higher 1st round pick. The asking price will be way to high. Yes, they will want an inside linebacker, but other than DJ, none are rated that high.

I think they will take Justin Miller at #13. He's a Dunta Robinson clone, AND he's a dangerous punt return specialist. Bye-Bye J.J. Moses

texasguy346
03-05-2005, 04:49 PM
I'm not so sure I'd trade down to pick up Washington in the first round. There are alot of good CBs in this draft, and it's among the deepest positions in this draft. I'd say you've got Jones, Rolle, Rogers, and Miller ahead of him. Washington will probably go around the same time as Webster, McFadden, and Jackson. He might be the 5th CB, or possibly the 4th, but I think if I'm taking a CB and I'm not taking Rolle, Rogers, Miller, or Jones I might wait until the 2nd or 3rd to pick one up since they're all pretty closely rated. I love his speed, I think he ran around 4.25 or something like that, and he may be a steal for whatever team picks him up in the 2nd or 3rd. I'm just not sure I'd take him at the end of the 1st.

Vinny
03-05-2005, 05:10 PM
the fact that we did not make a big play for LaMont Jordan makes me wonder if RB is high on our list.You really should not use that as a watermark as to the teams RB situation. Jordan signed a 5 year deal at $27.5 million with $11 million in guaranteed money and $17.8 million over the first three years of the contract, including $15.7 million in bonuses. No way we give a back that kind of money with Dom Davis as our starter. The draft is a much better place to find a partner in the backfield with DD.

Number19
03-05-2005, 05:18 PM
I wonder what the Texans think of Nebraska CB Fabian Washington. He burned the turf during the combines and I have seen him play a few times. He seemed like a really good player. With the 40 times he put up he might be a possible first rounder. Do you think that the Texans may trade down and pick Washington?
I targeted Washington as a player I liked, more than a month ago. I had hoped he would be available in the 3rd. I agree with you, now, that he could be picked in the first. He'll definately be off the boards by the end of the 2nd round. He's about the same size as Robinson, and the only serious knock on him, that I'm aware of, is that he's weak in run support.

Much of my previous assessment applies equally to any trade down pick - except it becomes more affordable and reasonable to let the selection sit on the bench for a year or two. What bothers me about statements coming out of the Texans' office is that there doesn't seem to be any intent to draft OL in the first round. Since this is the most pressing need on the team, I would hope this is a slight overstatement and they would target Baas somewhere around the 19 spot. Depending on what happens during the FA signings, the Ravens' biggest need seems to be OG and they could take Baas at #20. Since the OL is a more pressing, immediate need for the Texans than CB, I would think this is a more reasonable scenerio. But absent us taking Baas with a lower 1st round pick, your suggestion of taking Washington is certainly within the realm of possibilities. With the signing of Payne, it seems our DL is set with Walker, Payne and Walker; and seems to make the likelyhood of drafting DL in the 1st round much less a possibility. But if the Texans don't draft for need, anything is within the realm of possibility.

Corrosion
03-05-2005, 05:28 PM
Dont rule out the posibility of taking a D-Lineman @ 13 . Walker is aging , Payne is again coming back from injury , Jerry Deloach is a questionmark with his pending Unrestricted free-agency as is Corey Sears. Leaving only four D-Linemen on the roster . In the Texasn system they like to constantly rotate 5-6 players at the three line positions . Four players at three positions is not much depth any way you look at it.

Grid
03-05-2005, 05:37 PM
i know it doesnt MEAN that we arent interested in RB.. just makes me WONDER if we arent. I would have at least expected us to be a player for Jordan, but I didnt even hear that we had talked to him.

Vinny
03-05-2005, 05:42 PM
I would have at least expected us to be a player for Jordan, but I didnt even hear that we had talked to him.Why do you think we would be even remotely interested in spending that kind of money on a back in a rbbc?

Number19
03-05-2005, 05:43 PM
First of all, I don't think that Casserly will trade up for a higher 1st round pick. The asking price will be way to high...
My thinking is that Capers has always made his LB's the focal point of his defenses. Johnson - an immediate impact player - would solidify the third position - Babin and Greenwood solidifying the first and second.

Considering what he paid to move up for Babin, if the price is only our second round pick and some second day picks, the price is not too much. There is much talk about trading down, not much talk about trading up and it seems the Texans could be in a favorable position. Also remember, we might get a third round pick, or almost a certain forth round pick, in any Sharper trade.

In terms of publicity, and fan support, this would be much like the Oilers taking Campbell. Given the opportunity, it may be too much to pass on.

Hottoddie
03-05-2005, 05:50 PM
Like Marcus, I don't see us trading up this year. The only player that might be worth trading up for is DJ, & we need depth much more than we need one impact player.

Contrary to what some posters want, there's not one DL worth the #13 pick (including Spears). However, trading down would make it a whole new ball game.

The only players that I can see the Texans considering at #13 are:

WR: Braylon Edwards, Troy Willamson, Mike Williams

RB: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson

CB: Antrel Rolle, Justin Miller, Pac-Man Jones, Carlos Rogers

LB: DJ, Thomas Davis

OT: Alex Barron

And I believe that their order of preference might be:

1) DJ
2) Braylon Edwards
3) Ronnie Brown
4) Thomas Davis
5) Antrel Rolle
6) Justin Miller
7) Alex Barron
8) Troy Williamson
9) Pac-Man Jones
10) Mike Williams
11) Cedric Benson
12) Carlos Rogers

But, that's just my opinion.

Corrosion
03-05-2005, 05:50 PM
i know it doesnt MEAN that we arent interested in RB.. just makes me WONDER if we arent. I would have at least expected us to be a player for Jordan, but I didnt even hear that we had talked to him.



How much $$$$$ did he get in his new deal ? 5 year $27.5 million . That is why the Texans had no interest in him , too many dollars .

I would expect the Texans to take a RB at some point in this draft , probably rounds 3-5. There is always the possibility they take one in the first round IF one of the top three (Ronnie Brown , Cedric Benson or Williams) are still there and they have no players rated above them (most likely they would trade down in this scenirio).

Grid
03-05-2005, 05:52 PM
Because I figure that Casserly probably would not have been made aware of the details of the Oakland contract.. and also that we have showed alot of interest in Jordan in the past.. and that we would probably have offered him at least the same that we offered Greenwood.

Im not saying that I would have expected Casserly to match the deal that oakland made.. Im saying that we heard nothing of a visit or any talks going on.. which leads me to beleive that either Casserly knew we couldnt afford him, or we decided we werent interested.

which one was it? I dont know.. but it makes me wonder if RB is very high on our list.

geez its like the spanish inquisition in here.

Rosusu
03-05-2005, 05:55 PM
No point in paying that much to Jordan when he would just be a backup. He would be making A LOT more than DD and there is no reason to spend that much when we can just draft a RB in the later rounds and have him develop. I think that we will try to draft DJ or the best CB available if we cant trade up.

Number19
03-05-2005, 05:57 PM
Dont rule out the posibility of taking a D-Lineman @ 13 . Walker is aging , Payne is again coming back from injury , Jerry Deloach is a questionmark with his pending Unrestricted free-agency as is Corey Sears. Leaving only four D-Linemen on the roster . In the Texasn system they like to constantly rotate 5-6 players at the three line positions . Four players at three positions is not much depth any way you look at it.
I don't entirely rule it out, I just no longer consider it a certainty, or even a likely possibility. Given the salaries for W, P and S, and the contract for the #13 player taken, I just think the Texans' reasoning will be that they can get more value by looking in other directions.

Your reasoning makes a better case for selecting a CB at #13 and then taking a DLman in the 2nd round, maybe Castillo.

Grid
03-05-2005, 05:59 PM
btw I agree he cost too much :P

Beastlyman2003
03-05-2005, 06:02 PM
Baas would be a reach at any pick in the first round, unless picked by the Patriots. We are going to pick Justin Miller CB(1), Chris Canty DE(2), Roscoe Parrish WR(3a) and Ricjie Incognito OT(3b)

Number19
03-05-2005, 06:05 PM
...The only players that I can see the Texans considering at #13 are: WR: Braylon Edwards, Troy Willamson, Mike Williams...
Unless it is misdirection, I believe there have been comments from the Texans front office, to the effect, that there is no interest in drafting another impact receiver. Capers and Casserly are full of surprises, but I do think a receiver at #13 to be very unlikely.

Number19
03-05-2005, 06:20 PM
Baas would be a reach at any pick in the first round, unless picked by the Patriots...what is your definition of "a reach". By draft day, Baas will probably be the #1 rated OG and will also be the #1 rated OC. Comparisons with past drafts would rate Baas a solid pick for the bottom of the first at either position. Faine was taken in the first and Baas would be a better center. The fact he can play both positions so effectively raises his value and Baas will offer value from the 20th pick onward. If a player offers value, then he is not a "reach".

dirty steve
03-05-2005, 06:25 PM
didn't incognito hurt himself at the combine?

TommyS
03-05-2005, 06:51 PM
just a knee sprain. nothing that will seriously impact draft day value. he'll by gone by the 3rd. great name.

Wolf
03-05-2005, 07:03 PM
what is your definition of "a reach". By draft day, Baas will probably be the #1 rated OG and will also be the #1 rated OC. Comparisons with past drafts would rate Baas a solid pick for the bottom of the first at either position. Faine was taken in the first and Baas would be a better center. The fact he can play both positions so effectively raises his value and Baas will offer value from the 20th pick onward. If a player offers value, then he is not a "reach".
if we were to trade down to late teens to 20's .. I'd consider taking Bass, but not at 13

TommyS
03-05-2005, 07:18 PM
uh, is it just me or does anyone else think the first round is way too high for a guard? even if he can play centre also? fine, a bookend tackle like barron or brown at 13 no problem. but trading down for a guard seems pointless. draft a college tackle in the 4th/5th rounds and make him a guard in a year or so.

my picks at 13 - cb. ol. dl. stay where we are, grab the highest rated player at those positions.

Texan in Japan
03-05-2005, 07:31 PM
Num 19,

Good thread. I believe that CC will target exactly what he said BPA. Given what you and others have layed out in this thread and others, we could really stand upgades at all positions (san QB & K).

I'll be very surprised if all three RBs are gone by 13 and I'm sure one of the elite CBs will also be available. There are always last minute rumors that spread and sometime drop a guy out of the top 10, but given the depth and parity of this draft class its hard to really designate a "top 10."

I like Baas, but given the depth of OL, I believe CC will look in 2nd or more likely the 3rd round for upgrades at C/OG. That may also be philosophy for other positions like DL, CB and RB.

ILB has some intriguing prospects, but after DJ we're looking at late 1st to 3rd for most of them to go. I'd love to get a guy like Boomer Grisby in 4th or 5th.

So where does that leave us? Well CC/Dom may be using faith in Benny J. as smoke behind their interest in Heath. While I'm not convinced he's #13 material, I'm not a pro scout either. He is clearly touted as best TE available and he's young, has excellent hands/receiving skills and has potential to grow into a better blocker (6'5" 255). I'm not saying he's our pick, but he's a wildcard (we as fans) should consider.

So to sum it up RB & CB are good possibilities to offer BPA at #13. But scouts may like a TE, WR, DL, OL (Kahlif Barnes moving up based on pass blocking skills) better than what's indicated on the web.

Vinny
03-05-2005, 07:53 PM
uh, is it just me or does anyone else think the first round is way too high for a guard? Mike Munchack and Bruce Matthews would disagree.

Grid
03-05-2005, 09:36 PM
I honestly think the first round is too high for anything other than an elite LT.

Look around the league.. most starting linemen at any position other than LT, where taken in the 3rd or later.. some of them in the 2nd.

its just not necessary to take a guard that high unless he is the greatest guard ever to play the game. And look at all the talented interior linemen that are projected to go in the 3rd round.. and we just happen to have two picks there.


I could see us grabbing Jammal Brown or Alex Barron in the first.. but only because we are semi-desperate for a dominant Oline.. and may reach a little bit to make sure we get a truely talented prospect. But it WOULD be a reach.

thats my opinion anyway.