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Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:21 AM
I haven't posted much here over the past year. I'm a pretty new Texans fan who just moved to Austin, so I'm trying to jump in head first this year after a season in which I didn't have an opportunity to see many games.

In looking at the depth chart and the upcoming Draft, I've written up a little analysis of what I believe the Texans will do in the first round. Some may disagree with my basic premise that Houston has essentially been forced into taking a cornerback. If so, I'd welcome any feedback. I'm hoping that this post will get some Draft discussion going.


The Texans enter the 2010 Draft with a number of positions in need of attention. In the months leading up to the Draft, most analysts projected that Houston was likely to draft one of three positions in the first round—nose tackle, cornerback or free safety. However, my opinion is that the loss of starting CB Dunta Robinson to the Falcons, in addition to the failure to lure free agent Leigh Bodden from the Patriots, has subsequently forced the Texans’ hand.

Houston finds itself, following the loss of Robinson, with one of the weakest cornerback groups and secondaries overall in the entire NFL. In a division that features arguably the League’s best quarterback in Peyton Manning, the Texans’ top corner is second-year player Glover Quin—not exactly an enviable scenario. Veteran Jacques Reeves, the Texans' other projected starter, is merely average. 2009 sixth-round selection Brice McCain is a smaller corner who appears better suited to a nickel role, and back-ups Fred Bennett, Antwaun Molden and Mark Parson are not front-line NFL corners.

The Texans therefore seem to be in a position of having to draft for need instead of being able to focus on taking the best available player, as the team absolutely must conclude the 2010 Draft with a cornerback capable of starting immediately.

Taking a nose tackle like Brian Price or Dan Williams in the first round would force the Texans to have to find a starting cornerback in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, which, while not impossible, is a much more difficult proposition in a draft generally thought to include only 2-3 elite corners.

I felt that the Texans needed to find a minimum of two new defensive starters among the nose tackle, cornerback and free safety positions through a combination of free agency and the 2010 Draft. Their failure to be active and/or successful in the free agent market in any of those critical need areas likely means that those two new starters will have to be found in the Draft.

The 2009 Draft for the Texans was largely predictable, as Houston’s love for and need for strong-side linebacker Brian Cushing was certainly no secret. 2010 appears to be very similar in that a single player (CB Kyle Wilson of Boise State) has been projected almost universally by analysts to end up in Houston. Should Wilson fall to the Texans, I can’t see them passing on him, even if defensive linemen Dan Williams and Brian Price are still on the board at #20.

What do the Texans do if Wilson is off the board at #20? My feeling is that they would move to the next corner on their board (presumably Alabama’s Kareem Jackson). The burden on the Texans to land a starting cornerback in this Draft is immense, and failure to do so could have potentially catastrophic consequences for the team this season.

HOU-TEX
03-17-2010, 10:26 AM
There's an entire forum dedicated to the draft. Talk draft there

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=13

nero THE zero
03-17-2010, 10:27 AM
The only way I see them going corner in the first is if Ryan Matthews is already off the board.

According to the tea leaves, they're pretty set on him.

Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:28 AM
There's an entire forum dedicated to the draft. Talk draft there

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=13

Yes, and it's pretty much being used to talk about specific players and about the Draft in general. I don't see much talk about the Texans' draft over there.

Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:30 AM
The only way I see them going corner in the first is if Ryan Matthews is already off the board.

According to the tea leaves, they're pretty set on him.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the wisdom in taking a running back in the first round. There are good backs to be had throughout the Draft, and the Texans are far worse at other positions.

Slaton and Foster aren't the best combo in the NFL by any means, but they're surely better than what the Texans have at some other positions. I can't see how taking a RB in round #1 makes Houston a substantially better team, when they have so many defensive holes to fill.

I'm not doubting your info, and I know Houston likes Matthews, but that seems like a very questionable move when their cornerback depth looks as bad as it does.

HOU-TEX
03-17-2010, 10:37 AM
The only way I see them going corner in the first is if Ryan Matthews is already off the board.

According to the tea leaves, they're pretty set on him.

And would your tea leaves be coming from under McClain's 3rd chin? It's not like it'd upset me to choose a RB in the 1st, but I'll beleive it when I see it rather than putting stock into what the Gobbler says.

Yes, and it's pretty much being used to talk about specific players and about the Draft in general. I don't see much talk about the Texans' draft over there.

I might've come across like an ass in my post. If so, I apologize, it wasn't my intention. :)

Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:41 AM
And would your tea leaves be coming from under McClain's 3rd chin? It's not like it'd upset me to choose a RB in the 1st, but I'll beleive it when I see it rather than putting stock into what the Gobbler says.



I might've come across like an ass in my post. If so, I apologize, it wasn't my intention. :)

No problem. I did check out the draft board, but, as I said, it seems to be used more for discussion of the draft in general. Hopefully people don't mind a few draft-related posts on the main board, especially since it really is the most important thing going on in the world of Texans football right now. Plus, some don't even check that other board.

nero THE zero
03-17-2010, 10:41 AM
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the wisdom in taking a running back in the first round. There are good backs to be had throughout the Draft, and the Texans are far worse at other positions.

Slaton and Foster aren't the best combo in the NFL by any means, but they're surely better than what the Texans have at some other positions. I can't see how taking a RB in round #1 makes Houston a substantially better team, when they have so many defensive holes to fill.

I'm not doubting your info, and I know Houston likes Matthews, but that seems like a very questionable move when their cornerback depth looks as bad as it does.

That's working under the assumption that your first round CB (i.e. Kyle Wilson, Joe Haden) is significantly better than your second round CB (i.e. Devin McCourty, Dom Franks). This draft is supposed to be very deep in starter quality CB. If you feel that the difference between, say, Ryan Matthews and Montario Hardesty is significantly greater than Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty, then your team is better off with Matthews + McCourty than Wilson + Hardesty.

I don't know if the Texans feel that way, but I do know that (1) they're pretty excited about Matthews and (2) the CB class is supposed to be pretty deep into the second round.

JB
03-17-2010, 10:43 AM
That's working under the assumption that your first round CB (i.e. Kyle Wilson, Joe Haden) is significantly better than your second round CB (i.e. Devin McCourty, Dom Franks). This draft is supposed to be very deep in starter quality CB. If you feel that the difference between, say, Ryan Matthews and Montario Hardesty is significantly greater than Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty, then your team is better off with Matthews + McCourty than Wilson + Hardesty.

I don't know if the Texans feel that way, but I do know that (1) they're pretty excited about Matthews and (2) the CB class is supposed to be pretty deep into the second round.

And how do you know this?

nero THE zero
03-17-2010, 10:43 AM
And would your tea leaves be coming from under McClain's 3rd chin? It's not like it'd upset me to choose a RB in the 1st, but I'll beleive it when I see it rather than putting stock into what the Gobbler says.

Haha, no (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1378010&postcount=7).

Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:45 AM
That's working under the assumption that your first round CB (i.e. Kyle Wilson, Joe Haden) is significantly better than your second round CB (i.e. Devin McCourty, Dom Franks). This draft is supposed to be very deep in starter quality CB. If you feel that the difference between, say, Ryan Matthews and Montario Hardesty is significantly greater than Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty, then your team is better off with Matthews + McCourty than Wilson + Hardesty.

I don't know if the Texans feel that way, but I do know that (1) they're pretty excited about Matthews and (2) the CB class is supposed to be pretty deep into the second round.

I'm not an expert on the corners in this draft, but based on what I've read, it seems that Haden, Wilson and Jackson are the top tier, and that others are perceived to be a drop down. I just don't know if Houston can go into the 2010 season with Glover Quin and Jacques Reeves as the starting CBs and hope to contend for the AFC South.

My feeling is that the Texans need to find the cornerback equivalent of Brian Cushing in this draft -- an instant impact starter. The longer they wait, the harder that becomes to find. Plus, it's not just that they're picking in the 2nd round -- they're picking 20th in the 2nd, which is a big difference from selecting toward the top of the round.

HOU-TEX
03-17-2010, 10:46 AM
Haha, no (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1378010&postcount=7).

So, you're basing it on your own tea leaves? Mmkay, I'll still beleive it when I see it.

nero THE zero
03-17-2010, 10:49 AM
So, you're basing it on your own tea leaves? Mmkay, I'll still beleive it when I see it.

Yes. I don't pretend to have any "inside info", and I hope I don't come off that way.

Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:50 AM
So, you're basing it on your own tea leaves? Mmkay, I'll still beleive it when I see it.

I haven't been following the local coverage as closely, but McClain is the only guy I see touting Matthews as the Texans' first-round choice. Every national analyst is projecting cornerback, and Kyle Wilson specifically.

Maybe McClain's right, but I still don't see Houston going RB in round #1. Has any player fallen farther faster than Steve Slaton?

Porky
03-17-2010, 10:50 AM
There's more than one way to skin a cat. One way you can help your secondary is to make sure they aren't on the field as much. A back like Matthews will help a ton in those 4th quarters when the chips are down. Being able to grind out first downs and run time off the clock helps the secondary immensely in an indirect way. It's hard for Manning to beat you when he's sitting on the bench. :devilpig:

nero THE zero
03-17-2010, 10:51 AM
I haven't been following the local coverage as closely, but McClain is the only guy I see touting Matthews as the Texans' first-round choice. Every national analyst is projecting cornerback, and Kyle Wilson specifically.

Maybe McClain's right, but I still don't see Houston going RB in round #1. Has any player fallen farther faster than Steve Slaton?

LZ (http://blogs.chron.com/fantasyfootball/2010/03/mock_draft_version_3_texans_fi.html)also has the Texans taking Matthews.

steelbtexan
03-17-2010, 10:55 AM
There's not much of a drop off at CB between 1st rder Wilson and 2nd rders Ghee, Franks and McCourty. IMHO

After watching the Texans RB's bumble,stumble and fumble all of last year RB would be my top priority.

If Thomas is unavaiable at 20.

Texsker
03-17-2010, 10:56 AM
There's more than one way to skin a cat. One way you can help your secondary is to make sure they aren't on the field as much. A back like Matthews will help a ton in those 4th quarters when the chips are down. Being able to grind out first downs and run time off the clock helps the secondary immensely in an indirect way. It's hard for Manning to beat you when he's sitting on the bench. :devilpig:

Well, with that mindset, I'd rather take OG Mike Iupati than Ryan Matthews. Give me a dominant OG to plug in, and my opinion is that you'll get more mileage out of Slaton and Foster with Iupati than you'd get with Slaton and Matthews without Iupati. Just my opinion.

steelbtexan
03-17-2010, 10:57 AM
No problem. I did check out the draft board, but, as I said, it seems to be used more for discussion of the draft in general. Hopefully people don't mind a few draft-related posts on the main board, especially since it really is the most important thing going on in the world of Texans football right now. Plus, some don't even check that other board.

Agreed

The draft is all that's really going on in the NFL at this time of year.

Texsker
03-17-2010, 11:00 AM
Agreed

The draft is all that's really going on in the NFL at this time of year.

Well, aside from free agency, but the Texans haven't been super active in the free agent market. It's been pretty uneventful.

badboy
03-17-2010, 11:03 AM
Yes, and it's pretty much being used to talk about specific players and about the Draft in general. I don't see much talk about the Texans' draft over there.You might want to go back and look again as several of us post daily on Texans needs in the draft. More later. Welcome to the MB.

HOU-TEX
03-17-2010, 11:04 AM
Yes. I don't pretend to have any "inside info", and I hope I don't come off that way.

A little bit, but it's cool. I'd actually be a little surprised if they took a RB in the 1st, but like I said earlier, it wouldn't upset me too much. The way I look at it is take the BPA at a need each round. CB, RB, DT, C/G and FS all need help, so it's the BPA of that group, changing each round as they come off the board.

infantrycak
03-17-2010, 11:12 AM
Welcome to the MB or back to it but please put things in the appropriate forums like Grossman news goes in the NFL forum and draft talk Texans or generally goes in the draft forum. Thanks.

badboy
03-17-2010, 11:20 AM
I haven't posted much here over the past year. I'm a pretty new Texans fan who just moved to Austin, so I'm trying to jump in head first this year after a season in which I didn't have an opportunity to see many games.

In looking at the depth chart and the upcoming Draft, I've written up a little analysis of what I believe the Texans will do in the first round. Some may disagree with my basic premise that Houston has essentially been forced into taking a cornerback. If so, I'd welcome any feedback. I'm hoping that this post will get some Draft discussion going.


The Texans enter the 2010 Draft with a number of positions in need of attention. In the months leading up to the Draft, most analysts projected that Houston was likely to draft one of three positions in the first round—nose tackle, cornerback or free safety. However, my opinion is that the loss of starting CB Dunta Robinson to the Falcons, in addition to the failure to lure free agent Leigh Bodden from the Patriots, has subsequently forced the Texans’ hand.

Houston finds itself, following the loss of Robinson, with one of the weakest cornerback groups and secondaries overall in the entire NFL. In a division that features arguably the League’s best quarterback in Peyton Manning, the Texans’ top corner is second-year player Glover Quin—not exactly an enviable scenario. Veteran Jacques Reeves, the Texans' other projected starter, is merely average. 2009 sixth-round selection Brice McCain is a smaller corner who appears better suited to a nickel role, and back-ups Fred Bennett, Antwaun Molden and Mark Parson are not front-line NFL corners.

The Texans therefore seem to be in a position of having to draft for need instead of being able to focus on taking the best available player, as the team absolutely must conclude the 2010 Draft with a cornerback capable of starting immediately.

Taking a nose tackle like Brian Price or Dan Williams in the first round would force the Texans to have to find a starting cornerback in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, which, while not impossible, is a much more difficult proposition in a draft generally thought to include only 2-3 elite corners.

I felt that the Texans needed to find a minimum of two new defensive starters among the nose tackle, cornerback and free safety positions through a combination of free agency and the 2010 Draft. Their failure to be active and/or successful in the free agent market in any of those critical need areas likely means that those two new starters will have to be found in the Draft.

The 2009 Draft for the Texans was largely predictable, as Houston’s love for and need for strong-side linebacker Brian Cushing was certainly no secret. 2010 appears to be very similar in that a single player (CB Kyle Wilson of Boise State) has been projected almost universally by analysts to end up in Houston. Should Wilson fall to the Texans, I can’t see them passing on him, even if defensive linemen Dan Williams and Brian Price are still on the board at #20.

What do the Texans do if Wilson is off the board at #20? My feeling is that they would move to the next corner on their board (presumably Alabama’s Kareem Jackson). The burden on the Texans to land a starting cornerback in this Draft is immense, and failure to do so could have potentially catastrophic consequences for the team this season.FYI, Beerlover, RMARTIN65 & I are presently putting together our second mock and the following is research material I emailed to them earlier today that you might find interesting whether you agree or not. It should be remembered that if a player has a rating of a certain round, it does not mean he will be there at Texans' pick.

Emailed info:
Texans will probably not draft huge DTs or power backs. Eliminates Joseph, Gerhart and Anthony Dixon.

Mathews we have agreed is perfect back and will go 1st round.
FS:Eugene Wilson prob will start and most like Barber if either can stay healthy. IMO Thomas only FS that might start and he might not. Gone by 2nd. Texans do not see this as big need. As Allen gone, I say move down for this position.

DT: Most identify this as higher priority than FS. Players avail @#51: Lamarr Houston, Joseph, Troup and Mike Neal in this order by Walter.

CB: Quin & Reeves will start first game. Only Haden, Kyle Wilson and perhaps THomas playing as a CB have chance to beat out one of these guys quickly & they are gone by 2nd round. Corners that may eventually beat out Reeves or Quin that Walters has available at our #51:
Spievy-even though Walter says he has some 1st round grades, he is selected by Titans # 77 in 3rd. (Texans pick # 81)

Dominique Franks, Brandon Ghee, Ansah, Perrish Cox, AJ Jefferson (Mike Mayock likes him), Donovan Warren and Jerome Murphy all there in 2nd or later.

The Pencil Neck
03-17-2010, 11:26 AM
I've said this before in some other threads, if you look at the top 10-15 RB's by yardage during the past season, almost all of them were 1st round picks. If you expand that out to what used to be considered "1st day" picks (rounds 1-3) then you cover most of the top RBs.

The old theory of taking RB's late and getting good value out of them usually busts. You've got to get lucky to have that happen.

We're supposed to be a running team. But we don't have a premier running back. The old plug & play philosophy hasn't worked. We need to get a beast. Of the RBs on the board this year, I think Matthews fits our system the best. I want him taken as the first round pick.

I'm not a big fan of Iupati. I'll admit straight up that I don't watch a lot of college game tape and I base my opinions off of reading the opinions of people who do watch a lot of game tape. And I know that Iupati has a lot of people saying he has good feet and everything. But what I saw at the Senior Bowl was a disaster. He's a grabber and is just one holding call after another. I don't draft Iupati.

I don't think the Texans are as freaked out about losing Dunta Robinson as a lot of pundits are. I don't think they see CB as that big of a need. Unless Haden falls to us OR we trade back and pick up Wilson, I don't think we go CB in the first. I'm expecting us to go someone like McCourty in the second.

If Brian Price or Dan Williams drop, then we could go DT.

So, for me, it's Ryan Matthews, Brian Price, or Dan Williams in that first pick. If all three of those guys are gone and we can't trade back, they'll go BPA... which could be anything.

badboy
03-17-2010, 11:41 AM
I've said this before in some other threads, if you look at the top 10-15 RB's by yardage during the past season, almost all of them were 1st round picks. If you expand that out to what used to be considered "1st day" picks (rounds 1-3) then you cover most of the top RBs.

The old theory of taking RB's late and getting good value out of them usually busts. You've got to get lucky to have that happen.

We're supposed to be a running team. But we don't have a premier running back. The old plug & play philosophy hasn't worked. We need to get a beast. Of the RBs on the board this year, I think Matthews fits our system the best. I want him taken as the first round pick.

I'm not a big fan of Iupati. I'll admit straight up that I don't watch a lot of college game tape and I base my opinions off of reading the opinions of people who do watch a lot of game tape. And I know that Iupati has a lot of people saying he has good feet and everything. But what I saw at the Senior Bowl was a disaster. He's a grabber and is just one holding call after another. I don't draft Iupati.

I don't think the Texans are as freaked out about losing Dunta Robinson as a lot of pundits are. I don't think they see CB as that big of a need. Unless Haden falls to us OR we trade back and pick up Wilson, I don't think we go CB in the first. I'm expecting us to go someone like McCourty in the second.

If Brian Price or Dan Williams drop, then we could go DT.

So, for me, it's Ryan Matthews, Brian Price, or Dan Williams in that first pick. If all three of those guys are gone and we can't trade back, they'll go BPA... which could be anything.Great post because I agree (ha!) Except for the DT in 1st that is. I too want Mathews although I prefer Gerhart. I don't think Texans want him. Ryan fits the bill perfectly and has significant size + speed. I also agree on Iupati who prob will be gone by #20. I have pushed Wilson as he climbed the charts as I expected but would not take him over Mathews. We have two guys who based on what we know right now should start day one at corner. Reeves and Quin. Who at RB screams "this is our guy?" No one. We have high hopes for Foster & Slaton but I have seen no guarantee that he will even be able to play.

beerlover
03-17-2010, 12:50 PM
The only DT who scares the hell out of me (Texans would consider 1st rd.) is Price in large part because of need & how well he fits defensive scheme but also ratings wise, depends how they grade him out I guess. For me I don't see a huge drop-off between him & McCoy.

We can't deceide on a 1st rd. CB because we don't know how they shake out either, throw Thomas in the mix, the ultimate fit & you see our problem. Ryan Mathews slips right in the red zone, just like he will on Sunday's but will the Texans use a first round pick on a RB?

Can't mock this, but if the big three are off the board (Thomas, Haden, Wilson) it would not surprise me if Texans trade back with a team who wants Mathews (San Diego #28) then pick up Price before Vikings/Colts/Saints have a shot :thisbig:

The Chargers swapped 2nd rd. picks with Seahawks for back-up QB Charley Whitehurst. This is even better. We swap 1sts (so they can trade up for Mathews) we take DT Brian Price or C Maurkice Pouncey. Our price or return for trading down? swap 2nd rd. picks (moves Texans up in order to #40) Texans get their hands on a very promising FS in Nate Allen (example) + San Diego 3rd (#91) power-back Anthony Dixon (another example). the Texans in return let them keep the pick they traded to the Texans for Travis Johnson.

Thorn
03-17-2010, 06:37 PM
Measurably the defense improved their over all standing in the league more than the offense did last year. The offense was pretty good coming into the season, and came out of it pretty good. The defense wasn't very good going into the year but came out of the season improving to average. Since the defense still has a way to go, I'm thinking they still go defense in the 1st round.

And since they don't need first round LBs, it's fairly easy to predict they'll go D-line or D-backs in the first round. That's my prediction at any rate.

LikeMike
03-17-2010, 07:18 PM
If Haden is there it`s a no brainer. If Wilson or Thomas is there, it is almost a no brainer... Spiller or Matthews would be really hard to pass up, but so far (for me) the defensive secondary is still the biggest problem of this team! Because we know what we got there: a promising second year player, that seems like a CB2 and a decent CB in Reeves that probably noone wants to see at CB1 for too long... the depth ain`t too great as well.

At HB we don`t really know what we have! Slaton was great in his first year, then got in a huge sophomore slump, then got injured. Foster played great the last 3 games but there is no guarantee that he can keep it up. Moats is alright, nothing else.

So how much do we turst our HBs this off season? How does Slatons injury look? I think we are alright with our guys, when we add a 3d round talent (like Gerhart) via the draft.

On CB on the other hand, we need a clear cut starter, that can preferably even guard the best receiver out there. Of course we can get lucky with such a guy in the 2nd or 3d round, but I wouldn`t want to take my chances here.

So I´d take Haden, Wilson, Thomas in the first (if all of those are gone I´d either try to trade down or take the best player at either HB, CB, O-Line, DT still available).

stingray
03-17-2010, 07:47 PM
After listening to Brian Price's interview last night on Sirius NFL radio, I hope the Texans do pick him up in the first. Everybody is always complaing about how DL take plays off and don't give it their all. Well, Brian doesn't take any plays off and his attitude shows it. If he becomes a Texan, you guys will notice that this kid is something special. No quit in that kid.

stingray
03-17-2010, 07:49 PM
The only DT who scares the hell out of me (Texans would consider 1st rd.) is Price in large part because of need & how well he fits defensive scheme but also ratings wise, depends how they grade him out I guess. For me I don't see a huge drop-off between him & McCoy.

We can't deceide on a 1st rd. CB because we don't know how they shake out either, throw Thomas in the mix, the ultimate fit & you see our problem. Ryan Mathews slips right in the red zone, just like he will on Sunday's but will the Texans use a first round pick on a RB?

Can't mock this, but if the big three are off the board (Thomas, Haden, Wilson) it would not surprise me if Texans trade back with a team who wants Mathews (San Diego #28) then pick up Price before Vikings/Colts/Saints have a shot :thisbig:

I would love that. Price did say that the Vikings have shown a lot of interest in him. And the Vikings do know a bit about D. Tackles.

TheRealJoker
03-17-2010, 08:13 PM
I'm becoming increasingly bullish by the day on Ryan Mathews. He's as complete a RB prospect as you could want, with low mileage to boot. Power to be our short yardage back as well as the speed to take it to the house. Plus, he knows to DIVE over the goal line instead of walking into the DL like Chris Brown!!!

I am normally not for taking a RB in the 1st (just not a long enough shelf life for my liking). But this team is in need of a major contributor, RBs tend to adjust to the NFL quickly and Ryan Mathews could be our offensive version of Brian Cushing when speaking in terms of contribution and importance to the team.

My # 1 prospect for the 20th overall pick is still Earl Thomas but its highly unlikely he'll fall to us before some other team snatches him up. I don't think Kyle Wilson is a big enough step up over what we can get in the 2nd round to say that we HAVE to take a CB round 2 (granted the draft is deep at RB also). But I think Ryan Mathews is the BPA if Thomas is off the board and all the other bluechippers are also.

I think Mathews helps our team more than a rookie CB and here is why:

1) We need to convert in the redzone. We can move the ball as well as anyone but when the field gets short we stall out. Ryan Mathews can help turn those FGs into TDs forcing other teams to keep pace with our offense.

2) What is a better way to finally get over the hump and beat the Colts? Add another CB to slow Manning down or add a feature RB to keep him on the sidelines. We were up 20-7 at the end of the 1st half in our last game against the Colts yet we only ran 5 times after that.... with Mathews in the fold we'll be running all over that pressure defense making them beg us for the play action to AJ over the top!!! Speaking of play action...

3) You thought Schaub's play action was effective with one of the worst running games in the league? Wait until we actually have a reason for the safety to bite!!!

wagonhed
03-17-2010, 08:59 PM
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the wisdom in taking a running back in the first round. There are good backs to be had throughout the Draft, and the Texans are far worse at other positions.

Slaton and Foster aren't the best combo in the NFL by any means, but they're surely better than what the Texans have at some other positions. I can't see how taking a RB in round #1 makes Houston a substantially better team, when they have so many defensive holes to fill.

I'm not doubting your info, and I know Houston likes Matthews, but that seems like a very questionable move when their cornerback depth looks as bad as it does.
This is exactly how I feel.

wagonhed
03-17-2010, 09:05 PM
I think Mathews helps our team more than a rookie CB and here is why:

1) We need to convert in the redzone. We can move the ball as well as anyone but when the field gets short we stall out. Ryan Mathews can help turn those FGs into TDs forcing other teams to keep pace with our offense.

2) What is a better way to finally get over the hump and beat the Colts? Add another CB to slow Manning down or add a feature RB to keep him on the sidelines. We were up 20-7 at the end of the 1st half in our last game against the Colts yet we only ran 5 times after that.... with Mathews in the fold we'll be running all over that pressure defense making them beg us for the play action to AJ over the top!!! Speaking of play action...

3) You thought Schaub's play action was effective with one of the worst running games in the league? Wait until we actually have a reason for the safety to bite!!!
All of these are arguments for improving our running game, but none are arguments for drafting a RB in the 1st round.

To begin with, I think our running game suffers more from our interior offensive line than it does from our RBs. A real center would help our run game immensely, imo. But a center can be had in the 2nd rd.

Furthermore, a RB from the 3rd round can add just as much as one from the 1st. RB is deep in this draft and the transition is easy to the NFL, we don't need a superstar at that position, we just need a reliable powerback, and these can be had easily in the 3rd round.

CB is a severe need for the team and we need a long term solution there. The best chance of getting a true NFL starting CB is by getting one in the first round.

Thorn
03-17-2010, 09:13 PM
To begin with, I think our running game suffers more from our interior offensive line than it does from our RBs.

IMO it suffers from both. I would like to see a interior O-lineman and a RB taken in rounds 2,3, or 4. Just not 1. We need a game changing DT or S/CB taken in the 1st round.

If that doesn't happen though, I have to say I agree with the logic that a good offense can help the defense. (The taking the RB in the 1st round route.) I just think a good, well stacked defense will help more. In fact I'm all for taking another DT in the 1st round. We're bound to get it right at some point. LOL

wagonhed
03-17-2010, 09:44 PM
To be perfectly honest, in today's game, I think that CB is simply a more important position than RB. It's not glamorous, and taking RBs high is almost always more popular with fans, but a good secondary (not to mention a DT to collapse the pocket), starting with solid corners, is more important when it comes to winning football games. This isn't just my opinion, it's empirically justifiable.

Furthermore, I think we are a lot shakier at CB than we are at RB. Reeves is a decent #2, and Quin is a decent nickel, but it's awfully hard to say that that is a solid starting duo. I think starting the season with those two would put us in the bottom 3rd in the NFL at the position. Whereas we know that Slaton is capable of a lot, and Foster even as an UDFA looks like he can be in the starting rotation, and Moats is reliably average. The biggest problem with our running game last season that doesn't weigh 300lbs is named Chris Brown. And the only thing that will solve the Chris Brown problem is Kubiak not playing him.

The Pencil Neck
03-17-2010, 10:15 PM
A lot of teams draft running backs in the later rounds and a lot of those guys never see the field let alone turn into a viable #1. Sure, you can find a Terrell Davis here and a Priest Holmes there but unless you were the Denver Broncos of the late 90's/00's, you're not making a living with those guys.

Sure. I understand the argument against drafting a running back high. I've made the argument from the other side for years. You improve the running game by improving the offensive line and creating holes that anyone can run through. Running backs don't last long so why spend a high draft pick on them.

Well, you know what, the reverse is true as well. A great running back can get through smaller holes than a bad running back. A great running back makes an offensive line look great. Running backs may not last long but having no running game (on a team whose philosophy is supposed to be about running) makes the coach not last long.

And you can improve your line in the later rounds at least as easy as you can find a running back in the later rounds.

I think we get CB in the second round. I think the Texans aren't as worried about our defensive backfield as some of the poster's on this board. And I could be wrong about that last sentence.

wagonhed
03-17-2010, 11:29 PM
Kind of the whole point is that the running game just isn't as important as the passing defense. We don't need an incredible running game, we just need a running game that can put the ball in from the 1 yard line. We don't even need a good running game, simply average would be great.

The Pencil Neck
03-18-2010, 12:44 AM
Kind of the whole point is that the running game just isn't as important as the passing defense. We don't need an incredible running game, we just need a running game that can put the ball in from the 1 yard line. We don't even need a good running game, simply average would be great.

To me, the running game is much more broken than the passing defense is. Even with Dunta gone.

Last year, our rushing game was in the cellar and our pass defense wasn mediocre.

At the RB position, we've got one guy who had problems holding onto the ball and who's had neck surgery and who will probably never be what he was his rookie year, another guy who can't pick up the blitz and isn't scaring anyone running except the Bills, another guy who's started 3 games and had an issue holding onto the ball, and another guy who was on IR all last year.

At the CB position, we've got 3 guys who've been starters... even though one of those guys can't turn his head and another hasn't lived up to his rookie year and another guy we're hoping lives up to his rookie year. We've also got another second year guy that showed a lot of promise and a third year guy with health issues who has a lot of unrealized potential.

At the FS position, we've got an old guy who's played OK until he got injured and a young guy that played OK at the end of the season before getting injured. And behind them, a kid who spent all of last year on the IR.

To me, you fix what's most broken.

BUT, in reality, we probably draft CB and RB in the first two rounds no matter what happens. I just think there's a bigger drop off from the first round to the second round when it comes to RB's than when it comes to CB's. But it depends on who's on the board and who's gone.

beerlover
03-18-2010, 01:37 AM
Texans are hard to figure, they're off to a slow start in free agency but that might not be so bad (working on DeMeco & Daniels extensions). Now they're best option to improve is via the draft. It's important to keep pace if not out draft division rivals Tennessee & Jacksonville even though they have clear shots ahead of Texans while Houston needs to leapfrog Indianapolis & Bill Pollan which is never easy. Need at least 3-4 impact players again (last year Cushing, Pollard/FA, Barwin & Quinn) who upgrade major needs, like RB, C/FA Wade Smith?, DT, FS, CB & Kicker.

Therefore I don't think it matters where or when they draft a specific position of need as much as how well they upgrade the positions required to win more games. High priority needs can be addressed in the first four rounds, this is just one reason why I favor trading down. I know you got to give something to get something but doesn't this franchise stress value added not only in dollars but in skill sets that are versatile & add additional layers of depth. This is evident in how they handle their own free agents, I think New England fits this profile as well, generally considered cheap until they really need to keep somebody (Wilfork) then step up at the last minute.

One more thought to leave y'all with & that is the Texans (Rick Smith) have executed this plan in the past (08) trading down (#18 to #26 w/Baltimore) targeting their guy all along (Duane Brown) while adding the Ravens 3rd which turned out to be Steve Slaton. A similar scenero could happen again? It's much easier to trade down in this range as teams do not have to give up as much to move up. I understand this is not good mock practice but hey its reality & there are going to be an abundance of trades in this draft for a variety of reasons including depth of prospects to soft free agent market, to uncapped salary year, positioning for new bargining agreement & new prime time window where teams will really be under pressure to make moves & aquire help. In the Texans case they are still not a player or two away from the playoffs, more like 3 or 4 so you increase your odds & hope that addtional pick, maybe a power back in the 3rd, will help put you over the top while upgrading other needs like OL/DL secondary, kicker.

badboy
03-18-2010, 11:30 AM
I'm becoming increasingly bullish by the day on Ryan Mathews. He's as complete a RB prospect as you could want, with low mileage to boot. Power to be our short yardage back as well as the speed to take it to the house. Plus, he knows to DIVE over the goal line instead of walking into the DL like Chris Brown!!!

I am normally not for taking a RB in the 1st (just not a long enough shelf life for my liking). But this team is in need of a major contributor, RBs tend to adjust to the NFL quickly and Ryan Mathews could be our offensive version of Brian Cushing when speaking in terms of contribution and importance to the team.

My # 1 prospect for the 20th overall pick is still Earl Thomas but its highly unlikely he'll fall to us before some other team snatches him up. I don't think Kyle Wilson is a big enough step up over what we can get in the 2nd round to say that we HAVE to take a CB round 2 (granted the draft is deep at RB also). But I think Ryan Mathews is the BPA if Thomas is off the board and all the other bluechippers are also.

I think Mathews helps our team more than a rookie CB and here is why:

1) We need to convert in the redzone. We can move the ball as well as anyone but when the field gets short we stall out. Ryan Mathews can help turn those FGs into TDs forcing other teams to keep pace with our offense.

2) What is a better way to finally get over the hump and beat the Colts? Add another CB to slow Manning down or add a feature RB to keep him on the sidelines. We were up 20-7 at the end of the 1st half in our last game against the Colts yet we only ran 5 times after that.... with Mathews in the fold we'll be running all over that pressure defense making them beg us for the play action to AJ over the top!!! Speaking of play action...

3) You thought Schaub's play action was effective with one of the worst running games in the league? Wait until we actually have a reason for the safety to bite!!!Very well said. I have Mathews in 1st but keep trying to find away to get Thomas FS in 1st, Lamarr Houston DT in 2nd, A CB like Donovan Warren,Ansah or AJ Jefferson in 3rd or Rb like Hardesty. Problem is if you do not grab Mathews #20,you may not get the RB you want later.

beerlover
03-18-2010, 12:37 PM
Very well said. I have Mathews in 1st but keep trying to find away to get Thomas FS in 1st, Lamarr Houston DT in 2nd, A CB like Donovan Warren,Ansah or AJ Jefferson in 3rd or Rb like Hardesty. Problem is if you do not grab Mathews #20,you may not get the RB you want later.

Mathews is the type of highly rated prospect a team needing RB will trade up to aquire. The Texans are a team who beleives they can address RB later despite draft grade while addressing defensive positions of need in return.

rmartin65
03-18-2010, 08:02 PM
I really worry the Texans will pass on Matthews. I just have a bad feeling about it. Now, this wont necessarily be bad, if they can land a player like Wilson or Thomas. Matthews is my 3rd favorite possible prospect.

TheRealJoker
03-18-2010, 10:39 PM
All of these are arguments for improving our running game, but none are arguments for drafting a RB in the 1st round.

To begin with, I think our running game suffers more from our interior offensive line than it does from our RBs. A real center would help our run game immensely, imo. But a center can be had in the 2nd rd.

Furthermore, a RB from the 3rd round can add just as much as one from the 1st. RB is deep in this draft and the transition is easy to the NFL, we don't need a superstar at that position, we just need a reliable powerback, and these can be had easily in the 3rd round.

CB is a severe need for the team and we need a long term solution there. The best chance of getting a true NFL starting CB is by getting one in the first round.

On the 3 bolded points...

1) You really think Kubiak is going to start a 2nd round center? He's a big proponent of vet OL. Heck, Duane Brown was a 1st rounder and had to rotate with a journeyman his first season!!! Caldwell could barely break into the rotation last season despite being a 3rd rounder and our two starting guards injured. If our talent level weren't so weak in 2006 I have a hard time believing Winston would've cracked the starting lineup, and he needed an injury to finally get on the field.

Not saying I agree with it... but that's our coaches' philosophy.

2) I disagree wholeheartedly here. Too many people glorify the later round backs that were successes, but for every TD there's 10 Wali Lundys. Of the top 10 rushers in the league last season, only 3 were chosen outside of the 1st round... 2 of those 3 were chosen in the second round. In 2008, 5 of the top 10 in the first... 2 in the 2nd. 2007... 7 of the top 10 drafted in the 1st round. It's not a coincidence that the league's best RBs just happen to be selected in the 1st round. Inserting a RB like Mathews into the lineup is going to do a lot more for our running game than the question marks we currently have at RB and whatever center you think will be on the board at our 2nd round pick.

3) Agree we need a long term solution, even agree that it's a need, but a "severe" need? Losing Dunta and inserting Reeves is not that big of a dropoff. I'd feel a lot better if we would've signed Leigh Bodden but I'm honestly only slightly more at ease with a 1st round CB (Are we assuming Kyle Wilson here?) over Reeves starting. I can easily live with the talent in the 2nd/3rd rounds at CB and have them work into the starting job over the course of the season.

The 2nd/3rd round CB will have an easier job than the 1st rounder because teams will be playing catchup due to all the redzone opportunities we'll be converting to TDs now that Mathews is in the fold!!! :hurrah:

threetoedpete
03-19-2010, 01:18 AM
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the wisdom in taking a running back in the first round. There are good backs to be had throughout the Draft, and the Texans are far worse at other positions.

Slaton and Foster aren't the best combo in the NFL by any means, but they're surely better than what the Texans have at some other positions. I can't see how taking a RB in round #1 makes Houston a substantially better team, when they have so many defensive holes to fill.

I'm not doubting your info, and I know Houston likes Matthews, but that seems like a very questionable move when their corner back depth looks as bad as it does.


The defense got enough turnovers to challenge for the division last year...with a washed up Daunta Robinson and a group of might be's and wanna be's across from him. The reason the RB is now a high priority is that Mathews fits the ZBS. He can make the first guy miss. The twenty slot is pretty cap friendly for the RB. What also makes Mathews appealing is he hasn't fumbled the ball away yet in a critical situation. And a lot of people believe that with a larger running back, it will instantly give us a rushing attack in 2010. The fumbling, Which was pretty much the the recurring theme among all the RBs last year I believe was a result of the lack of confidence from the lack of holes. The Texans wasted a lot of the big plays the defense did make. Personally, I'm still hoping Iupati falls to us. Then it won't really matter how good a ZBS guy the back is. There will be an actual hole where one is supposed to be. The only thing wrong with the current corner depth on the roster is a lack of patience. And they are not big time names out of college. I have more hope for them than I do for Studard, Caldwell, Briesel, Chris White or whomever covering for the under sized and over whelmed Chirs Myers. I saw they added another under sized guard to the roster and I though WTF is the point ? What we know for a fact from last year is 305 don't work. Might make it with one....maybe two. But three and we're dead ducks with the rushing attack. We'll ride Matt's arm until the weather turns bad and then we'll fold like a cheap Wall Mart suit.