PDA

View Full Version : Kiper/McShay Duel Mock 3.0


HoustonFrog
03-11-2010, 11:18 AM
Basically on Insider they had the two of them do a side by side Mock. Considering the policy here on posting Insider I will tell you that they both had the Texans picking Kyle Wilson of Boise St. They say he is strong and has great movement and burst. Has shown well.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=4968544

Other players available by one or the other at this pick were Taylor Mays, Earl Thomas(though as high as 10 from McShay) and Ryan Matthews. Kiper had Spiller the pick before to Atlanta.

badboy
03-11-2010, 11:24 AM
I am a Wilson guy for months but switched to Mathews in 1st as a possible franchise type RB. I go CB in 3rd. We should do very well this draft.

Ole Miss Texan
03-11-2010, 11:32 AM
Like the pick of Kyle Wilson (assuming Joe Haden is gone). Would be supportive of Earl Thomas but am starting to think DT may be a priority. DT and CB both seem to have decent depth in this draft. A pass rushing DT like Brian Price could be the pick in the 1st.

JB
03-11-2010, 12:03 PM
Like the pick of Kyle Wilson (assuming Joe Haden is gone). Would be supportive of Earl Thomas but am starting to think DT may be a priority. DT and CB both seem to have decent depth in this draft. A pass rushing DT like Brian Price could be the pick in the 1st.

Wouldn't that lead to picking those positions later? CB in 2nd and DT in 3rd?

badboy
03-11-2010, 12:04 PM
Like the pick of Kyle Wilson (assuming Joe Haden is gone). Would be supportive of Earl Thomas but am starting to think DT may be a priority. DT and CB both seem to have decent depth in this draft. A pass rushing DT like Brian Price could be the pick in the 1st.Just kicking info around: DT in 2nd would be nice but can't get behind Price. Many scouts can't either. Add to the fact that our Dline pretty much stopped the run & I don't see any DT getting to the QB consistently from high rounds of draft, I'm leaning towards draftining OLB to push Diles or start.

infantrycak
03-11-2010, 12:31 PM
Like the pick of Kyle Wilson (assuming Joe Haden is gone). Would be supportive of Earl Thomas but am starting to think DT may be a priority. DT and CB both seem to have decent depth in this draft. A pass rushing DT like Brian Price could be the pick in the 1st.

I understand how folks think DT is a priority but I don't see how it is close to the priority CB is. Frankly CB needed upgrade even if we had kept Dunta. After the first 3 games last year we were 2nd against the run and 18th against the pass. Our CB's combined to tie our not great in coverage SS in INTs and got half as many as our rookie not great in coverage SLB. There is always a chicken and egg between the DL v. coverage debate but right now I think the DL is the lesser cause of the problem.

gtexan02
03-11-2010, 12:51 PM
I hope we go defensive back rather than defensive line. This team has shown me that they simply cannot successfully pick interior defensive lineman. We've failed recently, and I see no reason why this year would be different.

I'd love a Wilson or Thomas with this pick

infantrycak
03-11-2010, 12:58 PM
I hope we go defensive back rather than defensive line. This team has shown me that they simply cannot successfully pick interior defensive lineman. We've failed recently, and I see no reason why this year would be different.

I'd love a Wilson or Thomas with this pick

We are agreed on the end result but I disagree with the reasoning. One pick does not make a trend. Capers/Casserly picked TJ. Kubiak/Smith picked Okoye.

Section516
03-11-2010, 01:31 PM
How much would it be to hire Warren Sapp as an 3 tech DT adviser?

beerlover
03-11-2010, 01:32 PM
Kyle Wilson will always be compared to Dunta Robinson if selected. There I started it :)

HOU-TEX
03-11-2010, 01:45 PM
Basically on Insider they had the two of them do a side by side Mock. Considering the policy here on posting Insider I will tell you that they both had the Texans picking Kyle Wilson of Boise St. They say he is strong and has great movement and burst. Has shown well.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=4968544

Other players available by one or the other at this pick were Taylor Mays, Earl Thomas(though as high as 10 from McShay) and Ryan Matthews. Kiper had Spiller the pick before to Atlanta.

Great call, Kiper! Geez, what a moron.

Kiper and McShay together = huge dump I took this morning

Ole Miss Texan
03-11-2010, 02:16 PM
Too many people to quote!

Yes having a deep draft means you can find good value at certain positions. DT and CB look like those positions for this draft. Just commenting towards that fact (well guess its an opinion really).

DT in the first round... no joke about giving us heartburn. Sure as heck makes me nervous, no doubt about it.

Getting onto our DL. I think a number of things point to DT being the pick. Not saying it will but saying its a definite possibility. I thought TC had a great write up that could be used to maybe think like the coaches think. Link ->Cold Hard Football Facts Thread (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70209)

Regarding our DL, they came up with a Defensive Hog Index which is an indicator that ranks teams based on three areas: ability to stop the run, ability to get pressure on the quarterback and ability to get off the field on third down. The found the Texans (ranked #21) were below average in all three areas last year.

I think with the F.O.'s investment on the DL (Mario, Amobi, Smith and Barwin) that they will continue giving those guys every opportunity to be successful.

beerlover
03-11-2010, 02:32 PM
Kubiak is expecting Barwin to leap "expotentially" his 2nd year that alone improves "Defensive Hog Index" they'll probably kick Antonio Smith inside & go with quick one-gap guys. would like to target a beast with chip on shoulder in later round, to work him up the ladder :texflag:

Blake
03-11-2010, 02:49 PM
We are agreed on the end result but I disagree with the reasoning. One pick does not make a trend. Capers/Casserly picked TJ. Kubiak/Smith picked Okoye.

icak, what about the scouts and college talent evaulators? Are they the same scouts, or when Kubiak and Smith got to town, did we hire different ones?

gtexan02
03-11-2010, 03:31 PM
icak, what about the scouts and college talent evaulators? Are they the same scouts, or when Kubiak and Smith got to town, did we hire different ones?

From TCs blog, the cold hard football facts guys mention that every organization seems to have that one weak point that no matter how much money or talent they throw at it, it never seems to improve so much.

Im terrified that our position may be our DL. Weve spent 4 first rounders that I can remember (Babin, Williams, Johnson, Okoye). A few other choice draft picks (Barwin (2nd), Hill (3rd), Okam (5th), Green (6th), Wright (6th)), some high priced FAs and still are ranked in the bottom half of the lague.

In our 9 years of existence, weve spent nearly half of our first round picks on the DL.

Regardless of whos doin the picking, our track record is not impressive.

Its not just us, though. Here is a list of the 1st round DTs drafted over the last few years (since 2005). How many of these guys were "cant miss" prospects?

BJ Rajii
Peria Jerry
Evander Hood
Glenn Dorsey
Sedrick Ellis
Kentwan Balmer
Amobi Okoye
Adam Carriker
Justin Harrel
Haloti Ngata
Broderick Bunkley
John McCargo
Travis Johnson
Luis Castillo
Mike Patterson


Out of the entire group, there is only ONE probowler. Thats not to say many of those guys are'nt quality starters (Sed Ellis was a starter for a superbowl champ). Its just, for 1st round DTs, its been a piss poor group over the past 5 years. Im not sure how many you'd find in other rounds, its just that for some reason, DTs are really really risky picks.

You simply don't see this risk when it comes to DBs (approximately 1 in 4 DBs picked in the first round have been to the probowl. My quick estimate was 6/26. Higher percentage among safeties than CBs)

infantrycak
03-11-2010, 03:35 PM
icak, what about the scouts and college talent evaulators? Are they the same scouts, or when Kubiak and Smith got to town, did we hire different ones?

The heads of each are different since the Capers/Casserly era and Smith chose to dramatically cut down the number of scouts from Casserly's larges scouting staff that got jack done. There are probably some holdovers but predominately not.

Ole Miss Texan
03-11-2010, 03:59 PM
Good post gtexan. To add to what you're saying, it seems it takes longer for a D-Lineman to acclimate to the NFL. Certainly there are exceptions, but for the most part it takes a few years. I think this may add to why so few have gone to the pro bowl... I'd be interested in the Pro Bowl roster at DT over the last several years and where those "veterans" were selected.

DB's seem to be able to make a quicker impact or at least able to pile up some stats that make people take notice (pass deflections, interceptions) vs. DT's that don't show up in the stat sheet. Also pro bowl is notorious to take well known players over others.

I would add this though. I think we'd have a higher percentage chance of taking a CB early and him making the pro bowl than a DT.

gtexan02
03-11-2010, 04:04 PM
Good post gtexan. To add to what you're saying, it seems it takes longer for a D-Lineman to acclimate to the NFL. Certainly there are exceptions, but for the most part it takes a few years. I think this may add to why so few have gone to the pro bowl... I'd be interested in the Pro Bowl roster at DT over the last several years and where those "veterans" were selected.

DB's seem to be able to make a quicker impact or at least able to pile up some stats that make people take notice (pass deflections, interceptions) vs. DT's that don't show up in the stat sheet. Also pro bowl is notorious to take well known players over others.

I would add this though. I think we'd have a higher percentage chance of taking a CB early and him making the pro bowl than a DT.

I think thats a really good point. DTs are usually more of project type players than immediate impact players. Looking back through the drafts, its funny to see names (both DTs and DBs) who were can't miss prospects that I would have traded the bank for. Many of those guys I haven't heard from since

2slik4u
03-11-2010, 04:26 PM
Kubiak is expecting Barwin to leap "expotentially" his 2nd year that alone improves "Defensive Hog Index" they'll probably kick Antonio Smith inside & go with quick one-gap guys. would like to target a beast with chip on shoulder in later round, to work him up the ladder :texflag:

Insert Mt. Cody here. Ive seen mocks where hes fallin to the 3rd and 4th rounds. I know hes a fat boy with bad work ethic, but he is a brick wall run stuffer. Just sayin, size matters at this position and it could fit your "chip on the shoulder" profile perfectly.

rmartin65
03-11-2010, 06:13 PM
Insert Mt. Cody here. Ive seen mocks where hes fallin to the 3rd and 4th rounds. I know hes a fat boy with bad work ethic, but he is a brick wall run stuffer. Just sayin, size matters at this position and it could fit your "chip on the shoulder" profile perfectly.

I would not touch Cody anywhere in the draft. Eh, I take that back, I would go 5th round and back.

Contrary to popular belief, the defensive tackle position is more than just big fat guys standing there. Those guys are true athletes that have to be in great condition. They are getting hit on every play. That takes alot out of you. They are constantly exploding against the offensive line, occasionally against two linemen at a time, each weighing about 300 pounds. The kind of effort that that takes, just to avoid getting pancaked is phenomenal. Now add trying to actually trying to make a play, pushing these 300+ pound behemoths out of the way while trying to locate the ball.

Cody, at 350 pounds, does not have the endurance to do this for more than 15 snaps a game at the pro level. And to make matters worse, he does not seem to care about getting into shape to be able to play more during games. He showed up at the Senior Bowl terribly heavy. And at the combine he was lighter, but declined to bench. Does this mean he lost muscle? He does not care enough to work on his body to get into the NFL, do you really think he is going to work hard to maintain it after his million dollar contract?

He would be worth the risk in the 5th and beyond.

beerlover
03-11-2010, 11:14 PM
Casserly/Capers blew it bypassing Wilfork, nose tackle was always the missing component building a decent 3-4 during Texans early years. Seth would get hurt & then it was Travis. Some 3-4 team has a similar need & should address it with Mt. Cody no later than 2nd rd. :devilpig:

TheRealJoker
03-11-2010, 11:28 PM
It seems all too convenient that so many mocks have us taking Kyle Wilson still over a month out. Methinks his stock is gonna keep climbing and we aren't gonna have a shot at him. He doesn't get past Pittsburgh imo.

HoustonFrog
03-12-2010, 08:43 AM
It seems all too convenient that so many mocks have us taking Kyle Wilson still over a month out. Methinks his stock is gonna keep climbing and we aren't gonna have a shot at him. He doesn't get past Pittsburgh imo.

The thing with that is that many guys stock are going to climb and that lets other needs fall. The first 2 rounds seem deep in positions of need.. CB, DT , OL and RB. I think at 20 someone will fall through the cracks ala Mendenhall or Jenkins, the Cowboys CB. I've yet to see a year recently where a few teams don't surprise and some guys slip.

badboy
03-12-2010, 09:06 AM
It seems all too convenient that so many mocks have us taking Kyle Wilson still over a month out. Methinks his stock is gonna keep climbing and we aren't gonna have a shot at him. He doesn't get past Pittsburgh imo.Many think Steelers will select Iupati.

badboy
03-12-2010, 09:11 AM
I would not touch Cody anywhere in the draft. Eh, I take that back, I would go 5th round and back.

Contrary to popular belief, the defensive tackle position is more than just big fat guys standing there. Those guys are true athletes that have to be in great condition. They are getting hit on every play. That takes alot out of you. They are constantly exploding against the offensive line, occasionally against two linemen at a time, each weighing about 300 pounds. The kind of effort that that takes, just to avoid getting pancaked is phenomenal. Now add trying to actually trying to make a play, pushing these 300+ pound behemoths out of the way while trying to locate the ball.

Cody, at 350 pounds, does not have the endurance to do this for more than 15 snaps a game at the pro level. And to make matters worse, he does not seem to care about getting into shape to be able to play more during games. He showed up at the Senior Bowl terribly heavy. And at the combine he was lighter, but declined to bench. Does this mean he lost muscle? He does not care enough to work on his body to get into the NFL, do you really think he is going to work hard to maintain it after his million dollar contract?

He would be worth the risk in the 5th and beyond.Agreed & I have stated the view that he can't seem to remain in any kind of NFL shape. He lost pounds for combine but when I watched him work out, there was so much fat flying around, I would be terrified he might take out some of his team mates. If he can't get ready to tap dance in the spot light that gets him a lucrative contract, he will probably roller skate during his career however short it may be. Give me a Torrel Troup or Linval Joseph.

b0ng
03-12-2010, 09:21 AM
The thing with that is that many guys stock are going to climb and that lets other needs fall. The first 2 rounds seem deep in positions of need.. CB, DT , OL and RB. I think at 20 someone will fall through the cracks ala Mendenhall or Jenkins, the Cowboys CB. I've yet to see a year recently where a few teams don't surprise and some guys slip.

To add to this, as long as the Raiders are picking before us, there's always a chance that over-hyped fast players will be picked well before most talent evaluators would take them.

Honestly, I think Haden running a "slow" 40 could put Wilson past him and both of those guys getting snapped up before 20. Sad really.

Lucky
03-12-2010, 08:50 PM
After the first 3 games last year we were 2nd against the run and 18th against the pass.
OK, but the Texans had all of 4.5 sacks from the DT position. Maybe some of Antonio Smith's sacks came when playing DT in the nickel. Either way, the Texans have to get more pressure up the middle. A CB won't make Manning misfire. But, a 310 lb DT charging up the middle might.

infantrycak
03-13-2010, 05:46 AM
OK, but the Texans had all of 4.5 sacks from the DT position. Maybe some of Antonio Smith's sacks came when playing DT in the nickel. Either way, the Texans have to get more pressure up the middle. A CB won't make Manning misfire. But, a 310 lb DT charging up the middle might.

Granted. Then again what happened in the SB? Was there a better DT forcing Manning or did a better or at least more opportunistic DB jump the ball? Maybe both. Like I said, this is chicken and egg. Right now I think the sacrificial chicken is the CB but upgrading either one would help.

awtysst
03-13-2010, 09:16 AM
OK, but the Texans had all of 4.5 sacks from the DT position. Maybe some of Antonio Smith's sacks came when playing DT in the nickel. Either way, the Texans have to get more pressure up the middle. A CB won't make Manning misfire. But, a 310 lb DT charging up the middle might.


Granted. Then again what happened in the SB? Was there a better DT forcing Manning or did a better or at least more opportunistic DB jump the ball? Maybe both. Like I said, this is chicken and egg. Right now I think the sacrificial chicken is the CB but upgrading either one would help.


Both positions are important. So, you got to take the BPA at your pick. It is a bad decision to reach on a DT if you think the CB is the better overall player and vice versa. As long as you acquire good players, they will hopefully stand out enough in practice to get on the field.

painekiller
03-14-2010, 03:00 AM
Both positions are important. So, you got to take the BPA at your pick. It is a bad decision to reach on a DT if you think the CB is the better overall player and vice versa. As long as you acquire good players, they will hopefully stand out enough in practice to get on the field.

Dan Williams is not a reach at 20, IMO. And in the current ranking no CB is worthy of #20.

I am praying for a trade down and a grab for BPA. If not I would be happy with Iupati, Graham, Thomas, Weatherspoon or Mathews at #20

If they trade down add CBs Wilson or McCourty to the list.

I would really love to get two 2nds from New England, but that's not going to happen.