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kastofsna
12-03-2009, 09:38 AM
per KC Joyner, ESPN:

Suh is a seemingly clear-cut choice for the Bucs, Browns or whomever ends up with the No. 1 pick this April.

One of the rarest things to find in a defensive player is the ability to dominate a game. In seven seasons of breaking down NFL games, I have seen multiple skill position players carry their teams, but in that time I have seen only two defensive players -- Dwight Freeney in 2003 and Jason Taylor in 2006 -- impact the game like the Tom Bradys and Peyton Mannings of the world.

After looking at tape from six games of Ndamukong Suh's season (vs. Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Kansas State and at Colorado), I can now add a collegiate-level defender to that list. To say that his performance in these games was superb doesn't even do it justice.

To illustrate the specifics, let's start with running game. The fifty runs directed at Suh's Point of Attack (POA) gained a meager 116 yards, or only 2.3 yards per attempt. That is impressive enough -- but Suh also won 18 of the POA blocks. That equates to an outstanding 35.3% POA win rate overall, but it gets even better when the 23 double-team blocks are taken out of the equation. Suh won 14 of 32 POA blocks when single teamed, which equates to a ridiculously high 43.8% one-on-one POA win rate.

It didn't even matter what kind of run teams directed at him. He won seven of the nineteen slant play POA blocks and six of the fifteen counter play POA blocks. Iowa State got the bright idea to try to trap him but he won two of the four trap POA blocks and the Cyclones ended up gaining only four yards on those runs.

As lights out as his run totals were, it was his consistent impact against the pass that stood out the most. To get a sense of just how great Suh was here, consider the splash play totals of the two other defensive tackles covered in the Draft Lab series up to this point (splash plays being defined as when a defender does something to negatively impact a passing play). Gerald McCoy had 10 splash plays in five games and Marvin Austin had three splash plays in five games; both ended up getting TFS Draft Lab seals of approval.

Suh had 25 splash plays in his six games, or double the combined total of McCoy and Austin over a 10-game period. As insanely impressive as the overall total is, what was most amazing was Suh's per game consistency in this metric. He posted three splash plays against Texas Tech, four against Iowa State, five against Oklahoma, two against Kansas, five against Kansas State and six against Colorado.

The overall splash play numbers are great, but it also worth noting that ten of them came against some form of a double or triple team. That indicates Suh can beat multiple blockers but the fifteen single-blocking splash plays he racked up proves it is simply foolhardy to attempt to keep him out of the backfield with one blocker.

Suh also had an impact on special teams with two blocked field goals and a blocked point after touchdown attempt.

That should be enough, but my scouting eye also noted that -- believe it or not -- Suh may actually have some untapped upside potential as a pass rusher. He has a good swim move but he leans on the bull rush very heavily. It's almost as if he wants to do the bull move every time out and then decides to add a couple of extra moves on the fly if the bull isn't working. A guy like Albert Haynesworth can get away with that type of approach in the NFL because he's 6-foot-5 and 350 pounds. Suh is 6-foot-4 and 300 pounds, which is big in real life but isn't overwhelming for a pro defensive tackle. Suh will need to learn mastery of other pass rush moves, but when he does that he'll be even better than he is today.

The Football Scientist Lab Result: Suh is hands down the best player I have graded in the Draft Lab series. It is said that this is one of the deepest defensive line drafts in NFL history and the metrics say Suh is head and shoulders above his positional competition. He should be the No. 1 pick in the draft and, if I had a vote, I would nominate him for the Heisman Trophy without hesitation. He easily gets a TFS seal of approval.

bah007
12-03-2009, 09:59 AM
If I had a vote, this guy would be my Heisman trophy winner.

And if I had the first overall pick in the draft, he would probably be my selection.

rmartin65
12-03-2009, 12:19 PM
Suh should be the first overall pick. He is sick-nasty.

beerlover
12-03-2009, 12:36 PM
:drool:

kastofsna
12-03-2009, 01:42 PM
If I had a vote, this guy would be my Heisman trophy winner.

And if I had the first overall pick in the draft, he would probably be my selection.

Suh and Gerhart are clearly the two best players in the country right now. their stats are obscene. there's a good chance neither will be invited to New York. sigh.

edit: actually, Gerhart is probably a lock. but Suh definitely isn't

Blake
12-03-2009, 01:51 PM
Suh should go top 3 and I hope he bucks the trend of DT's being selected in the top 10.

I cant remember the last good DT selected in the first 10 picks. Maybe John Henderson in 2002???

kastofsna
12-03-2009, 02:08 PM
Sedrick Ellis looks good. Glenn Dorsey looks good.

there hasn't been too many other drafted than that.

Yankee_In_TX
12-03-2009, 02:12 PM
Suh and Gerhart are clearly the two best players in the country right now. their stats are obscene. there's a good chance neither will be invited to New York. sigh.

edit: actually, Gerhart is probably a lock. but Suh definitely isn't

Wasn't Woodson the last defensive Heisman winner?

They need to rename the award:

"Best offensive skill player on a nationally ranked school with a good football tradition."

Best player in college football is a joke.


My wife is sad we can't go to meet him at the Lombardy because it's pricey (and the IRS recently has decided to punish us from 2006).

dc_txtech
12-03-2009, 02:20 PM
Wasn't Woodson the last defensive Heisman winner?

They need to rename the award:

"Best offensive skill player on a nationally ranked school with a good football tradition."

Best player in college football is a joke.


My wife is sad we can't go to meet him at the Lombardy because it's pricey (and the IRS recently has decided to punish us from 2006).

I am in absolute agreement with this post. (Except for the last line)

dc_txtech
12-03-2009, 02:21 PM
Oh yeah, and Suh is a freakin Man-Beast.

Blake
12-03-2009, 02:34 PM
Sedrick Ellis looks good. Glenn Dorsey looks good.

there hasn't been too many other drafted than that.

I was excluding the last 2 years since it takes a few years to see what you got. But yes, Ellis looks good.

kastofsna
12-03-2009, 02:44 PM
Wasn't Woodson the last defensive Heisman winner?

They need to rename the award:

"Best offensive skill player on a nationally ranked school with a good football tradition."

Best player in college football is a joke.


My wife is sad we can't go to meet him at the Lombardy because it's pricey (and the IRS recently has decided to punish us from 2006).

yup, basically. every once in a while there will be a Barry Sanders-type who is so ridiculous you HAVE to give him the trophy

even so, only 4 Heisman winners since '58 have been something other than QB or RB

Kaiser Toro
12-03-2009, 02:47 PM
even so, only 4 Heisman winners since '58 have been something other than QB or RB

Another point to show that College Football's problems are systemic

badboy
12-03-2009, 02:51 PM
Wasn't Woodson the last defensive Heisman winner?

They need to rename the award:

"Best offensive skill player on a nationally ranked school with a good football tradition."

Best player in college football is a joke.


My wife is sad we can't go to meet him at the Lombardy because it's pricey (and the IRS recently has decided to punish us from 2006).Did you deduct your 2006 trip to New York for the award show?

kiwitexansfan
12-03-2009, 05:12 PM
As a new Nebraska fan, I have to say that this guy is liked a bronzed God to Huskers fans.

He was being discussed as the best Huskers DL player ever before the season started.

He also makes the other guys on that line so much better because of all the attention he gets.

It'll be interesting to see him go up against the Texas line in the Big 12 championship game.

bah007
12-03-2009, 10:09 PM
As a new Nebraska fan, I have to say that this guy is liked a bronzed God to Huskers fans.

He was being discussed as the best Huskers DL player ever before the season started.

He also makes the other guys on that line so much better because of all the attention he gets.

It'll be interesting to see him go up against the Texas line in the Big 12 championship game.

I'm pretty sure Suh is going to dominate our o line. But I'm confident that we will find a way to win.

texanhead08
12-03-2009, 10:39 PM
Wasn't Woodson the last defensive Heisman winner?

They need to rename the award:

"Best offensive skill player on a nationally ranked school with a good football tradition."

Best player in college football is a joke.


My wife is sad we can't go to meet him at the Lombardy because it's pricey (and the IRS recently has decided to punish us from 2006).


Yeah and he is probably the only non offensive winner the past 50yrs. You have to also remember he played a number of snaps at WR and returned punts that year so he did have some stat plays to get extra attention.

awtysst
12-03-2009, 11:01 PM
Suh should go top 3 and I hope he bucks the trend of DT's being selected in the top 10.

I cant remember the last good DT selected in the first 10 picks. Maybe John Henderson in 2002???

Richard Seymour: 2001.

nunusguy
12-07-2009, 02:23 PM
I've been listening to Romes radio show today and he had a college football analyst on by the name of Slaybaugh (Mark or Ray ?) from ESPN and they talked about various things in college ball including the Heisman. Anyway this guy (who clearly knows his stuff) said he was in Dallas over the weekend for the Big 12 championship, and he knew little about Suh except for a few things he'd got from Cornhusker fans.
After the game he said Suh put on the greatest individual performance of any player (at any position) he's seen in college for 10 or 15 years and hes getting his vote for the Heisman.

Hookem Horns
12-07-2009, 02:27 PM
After the game he said Suh put on the greatest individual performance of any player (at any position) he's seen in college for 10 or 15 years and hes getting his vote for the Heisman.

I wouldn't argue with that. He practically single handedly shut down the other Heisman candidate on the field.

nunusguy
12-07-2009, 02:43 PM
I wouldn't argue with that. He practically single handedly shut down the other Heisman candidate on the field.

What are his stats over the year though? Has he been that dominating game in and game out?
This guy also said that the Cornhuskers don't run a gap dline, meaning Suhs (and their other dlineman) primary role is to tie-up blockers so the LBs are free. Can you imagifne this guy as a pure 3-technique DLineman ?
BTW this guy is voting for Ingram #2 and isn't even sure if that's "Bama best tailback ? He thinks UT will be way in over its head in the championship game.

TigerWoods..Not
12-08-2009, 03:39 PM
How this guy was only a 4-star recruit coming out of high school, I don't know. He's a beast

beerlover
12-08-2009, 03:43 PM
How this guy was only a 4-star recruit coming out of high school, I don't know. He's a beast

I used to live next to Grant HS in Portland, in my mind it may have been more of an indictment of the Public School system lack of funding, facilites etc. If he was here in Texas at one of the big football powers, there is no question he would be ranked properly as elite ***** I don't care much for soapbox speeches but much props to our schools here locally, you don't know just how great our kids have it unless you've moved around.