PDA

View Full Version : I rode on my Time Machine to Week 17 ...


CharloTex
10-27-2009, 08:08 PM
Ok, I’ve examined the remaining schedule (Week 8 and forward) and ascertained, myself, the result of every game involving AFC teams, and then extrapolated the effects on the AFC standings, specifically as relates to playoff eligibility. My findings are below, but first, a few preliminary points …

1. For those of you who even now are typing away your response that includes the words “let’s not look ahead …” or “… let’s just stay focused on Buffalo”, hear this: I was recently laid off from my job, so with all this extra time on my hands I’ve already established, wallowed in, and then lost focus on the Buffalo game – yes, it’s very important to win this game, as are they all, as you will see. For you time-challenged “focus” nerds, there are other threads that transfix on the upcoming Buffalo game, blatantly refusing to look ahead - this is NOT one of those threads.
2. As I will show, the time to hunker down and win our every possible remaining game is now, and I know this because I have seen and understand the future, courtesy of my Time Machine (patent pending). You will see what I have seen.
3. Each of you can go through the same exercise as I did, and your findings will be substantially the same. For the most part, I gave the benefit of the doubt to the teams that most threaten the Texans’ playoff hopes, so this can be considered, if not a worst case scenario then at least a very likely toughest row to hoe. I would be surprised if it’s any worse than this.
4. I have (I predict) the Texans losing only 2 more games between now (Week 8) and Week 16 inclusive. This exercise leaves open the importance and outcome of only our final game in Houston against the New England Patriots. I believe the outcome of that last game will be critical to both teams and this should be, surely will be, further discussed. The expected outcome of other teams' Week 17 games is included in my summary.
5. For those interested, I have the Texans losing only the Indy game away (Nov. 8), and the Miami game away (Dec. 27). So, besides the win this weekend at Buffalo, I include wins at home against Indy (Nov. 29), and importantly on the road against Jacksonville (Dec. 6). These are IMPERATIVE wins as you will see. You want to switch one of those with the Miami game – OK; or call one of those a loss instead - then get on your own time machine and tell me who will be our 1st-Rnd draft selection next April with the 17th-ish pick.
6. This is not intended to be a doomsday prediction, but the bottom line is that when the best team in the NFL (Indianapolis) is in our own division (again, still), we immediately default to a “leftovers” playoff-wanna-be group encompassing the entire rest of the conference’s also-rans. And when you (carelessly) lose 3 early games, 2 AT HOME to contending also-ran teams (NYJ & JAC), your options are severally limited, as you will see. That is the bed we’ve made for ourselves, so without further ado, the pertinent standings after Week 17 games will be (not sure how this will format so bear with me) …

Indianapolis 13 wins, 3 losses
Houston 10 wins, 5 losses … Week 17 New England game pending
Jacksonville 10 wins, 6 losses
New England 10 wins, 5 losses … Week 17 game @ Houston pending
New York Jets 9 wins, 7 losses
Pittsburgh 12 wins, 4 losses
Cincinnati 11 wins, 5 losses
Baltimore 10 wins, 6 losses
Denver 11 wins, 5 losses
San Diego 9 wins, 7 losses


Resulting in the following playoff rankings …
1st Week Bye, Home Field Advantage throughout: Indianapolis (13-3)
1st Week Bye, Home Field Divisional Game: Pittsburgh (12-4)
Division Winner, Home Field Wild Card Game: Denver (11-5) or New England (11-5)
Division Winner, Home Field (NE?) Wild Card Game: Denver (11-5) or New England (10-6)
Wildcard #1: Cincinnati (11-5) or Houston (11-5)
Wildcard #2: Jacksonville (10-6), Baltimore (10-6), or Houston (10-6)

Also-rans contending Weeks 16/17: San Diego (9-7), New York Jets (9-7)

What I’m basically saying is, if we go to the playoffs it will be because we hereafter only lose 2 games, MAXIMUM 3 games. If we lose 3 games and finish 10-6, we might squeak by on second-tier stats, but definitely NOT if we lose a 2nd game to Jacksonville. Some of you operating your own time machine may want to throw in an extra loss at home to Seattle, or for argument’s sake this weekend in Buffalo, or blabber from the “any-given-Sunday” soap box – FINE, then I advise that you stand before the mirror and perfect forthwith your “wait ‘til next year” diatribe so you can be ever the more convincing come January 4.

As you can see, the Texans would be wise to heed this visionary alert and immediately without the slightest delay and continuing uninterrupted through January, finally and convincingly resemble, and precisely and absolutely become the competently-coached, high caliber, bone-crunching, yardage-defending, posterior-kicking, mega-point-scoring, , game-WINNING, nationally-embraceable, awe-inspiring, CowboysFan-jaw-dropping, take-the-bull-by-the-horns, deliver-the-goods, NFL playoffs-bound professional-frigging football team that they aspire to be and that by-golly we believe they can, should and will be. Now!!

Discuss ….

FirstTexansFan
10-27-2009, 08:15 PM
I'd say you need to really get a job :)

Kaiser Toro
10-27-2009, 08:19 PM
I am pretty emotional after that post, some would say sentimenstrual.

Your time machine sounds cool. :)

CharloTex
10-27-2009, 08:30 PM
I am pretty emotional after that post, some would say sentimenstrual.

Your time machine sounds cool. :)



Just the facts ma'am.

Texans_Chick
10-27-2009, 08:33 PM
Where's the time machine where The Peyton busts a knee or something and Sorgi finishes the Colts to a train wreck season.

Oh wait, that is not going to happen because he has a pact with the devil (http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2006/09/18/peyton-manning-is-evil/) which prevents him from suffering any in-season harm.

Tailgate
10-27-2009, 08:38 PM
Where's the time machine where The Peyton busts a knee or something and Sorgi finishes the Colts to a train wreck season.

Oh wait, that is not going to happen because he has a pact with the devil (http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2006/09/18/peyton-manning-is-evil/) which prevents him from suffering any in-season harm.

I can see the Colts losing to NE, Denver, and us(duh).

CharloTex
10-27-2009, 08:45 PM
I'd say you need to really get a job :)

Just stay focused on the Buffalo game.

DocBar
10-27-2009, 08:45 PM
Sounds like a plan to me. KT, you really liked the "sentimenstrual" line, eh? I've gotta trademark some of these words.

Hardcore Texan
10-27-2009, 08:49 PM
Indianapolis 13 wins, 3 losses
Houston 10 wins, 5 losses Week 17 New England game pending
Jacksonville 10 wins, 6 losses
New England 10 wins, 5 losses Week 17 game @ Houston pending
New York Jets 9 wins, 7 losses
Pittsburgh 12 wins, 4 losses
Cincinnati 11 wins, 5 losses
Baltimore 10 wins, 6 losses
Denver 11 wins, 5 losses
San Diego 9 wins, 7 losses

.

Funny thing is, the Jags going 10-6 is the most unbelievable part. :bender:

CharloTex
10-27-2009, 08:59 PM
Funny thing is, the Jags going 10-6 is the most unbelievable part. :bender:

I know, I glanced sideways at my own findings, but look at their remaining schedule. It's somewhat Patsy-laden. Maybe I gave them one too many wins and they go 9-7. That works for me.

brakos82
10-27-2009, 09:14 PM
Oh wait, that is not going to happen because he has a pact with the devil (http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2006/09/18/peyton-manning-is-evil/) which prevents him from suffering any in-season harm.

That was actually part of Hell's exclusive deal with Sony. :peek:

Goatcheese
10-27-2009, 09:33 PM
I'd say you need to really get a job :)

What does he need a job for? He has a friggin time machine!

CharloTex
10-27-2009, 09:34 PM
That was actually part of Hell's exclusive deal with Sony. :peek:


D'mn the economics!!

DexmanC
10-27-2009, 09:44 PM
Where's the time machine where The Peyton busts a knee or something and Sorgi finishes the Colts to a train wreck season?

It's not gonna happen, 'cause Peyton is the smartest QB in the league
when it comes to not getting hit. There are times when pass rushers
come free, and he ALWAYS dives into the dirt to fight another down.
I've seen it happen every game they've played the Texans the last
two years.

Face it. Coach Manning will ALWAYS lead the Colts to the top tier
of the NFL.

CharloTex
10-27-2009, 10:00 PM
It's not gonna happen, 'cause Peyton is the smartest QB in the league
when it comes to not getting hit. There are times when pass rushers
come free, and he ALWAYS dives into the dirt to fight another down.
I've seen it happen every game they've played the Texans the last
two years.

Face it. Coach Manning will ALWAYS lead the Colts to the top tier
of the NFL.

Don't tell anyone I said so, but PM is already my vote for best QB of all time. Really. And I've got 49 years under my belt. Dude could have a group of hobbled hunchbacks for receivers (sorry, no offense to the many great hunchbacks I know, some of which are truly my closest friends) and still lead his team to divisional victory. But therein lies his achilles - once in the playoffs, he must rely to some degree on his hunchbacks, ah, .... teamates. And that's when we pounce!!!!!

Dan B.
10-28-2009, 01:36 AM
Don't tell anyone I said so, but PM is already my vote for best QB of all time. Really. And I've got 49 years under my belt. Dude could have a group of hobbled hunchbacks for receivers (sorry, no offense to the many great hunchbacks I know, some of which are truly my closest friends) and still lead his team to divisional victory. But therein lies his achilles - once in the playoffs, he must rely to some degree on his hunchbacks, ah, .... teamates. And that's when we pounce!!!!!

I'd definitely put Manning in my top 5, and he's better than anyone today. I love how people say that Brady did it with less. Umm, isn't it possible that Manning makes his receivers better too? Who can really tell whether Marvin Harrison would have succeeded if he had gone to Detroit or Wayne to Cleveland? It's not like Edgerrin James went on to light it up in Arizona. Dude's a rock.

And that's not even mentioning the other advantages Brady had -- on the side of the ball neither one can control.

I'm not so sure Denver finishes 5-5. I thought they would've been exposed with the Denver/NE/@SD run already. I could see them pulling off another win against Baltimore, Indy, at home vs SD, or Pittsburgh -- though definitely not all of them. Most of the other spots I can see happening.

ObsiWan
10-28-2009, 04:06 AM
6. This is not intended to be a doomsday prediction, but the bottom line is that when the best team in the NFL (Indianapolis) is in our own division (again, still), we immediately default to a “leftovers” playoff-wanna-be group encompassing the entire rest of the conference’s also-rans. And when you (carelessly) lose 3 early games, 2 AT HOME to contending also-ran teams (NYJ & JAC), your options are severally limited, as you will see. That is the bed we’ve made for ourselves, so without further ado, the pertinent standings after Week 17 games will be (not sure how this will format so bear with me) …

Indianapolis 13 wins, 3 losses
Houston 10 wins, 5 losses … Week 17 New England game pending
Jacksonville 10 wins, 6 losses
New England 10 wins, 5 losses … Week 17 game @ Houston pending
New York Jets 9 wins, 7 losses
Pittsburgh 12 wins, 4 losses
Cincinnati 11 wins, 5 losses
Baltimore 10 wins, 6 losses
Denver 11 wins, 5 losses
San Diego 9 wins, 7 losses


Resulting in the following playoff rankings …
1st Week Bye, Home Field Advantage throughout: Indianapolis (13-3)
1st Week Bye, Home Field Divisional Game: Pittsburgh (12-4)
Division Winner, Home Field Wild Card Game: Denver (11-5) or New England (11-5)
Division Winner, Home Field (NE?) Wild Card Game: Denver (11-5) or New England (10-6)
Wildcard #1: Cincinnati (11-5) or Houston (11-5)
Wildcard #2: Jacksonville (10-6), Baltimore (10-6), or Houston (10-6)

Also-rans contending Weeks 16/17: San Diego (9-7), New York Jets (9-7)

What I’m basically saying is, if we go to the playoffs it will be because we hereafter only lose 2 games, MAXIMUM 3 games. If we lose 3 games and finish 10-6, we might squeak by on second-tier stats, but definitely NOT if we lose a 2nd game to Jacksonville. Some of you operating your own time machine may want to throw in an extra loss at home to Seattle, or for argument’s sake this weekend in Buffalo, or blabber from the “any-given-Sunday” soap box – FINE, then I advise that you stand before the mirror and perfect forthwith your “wait ‘til next year” diatribe so you can be ever the more convincing come January 4.

As you can see, the Texans would be wise to heed this visionary alert and immediately without the slightest delay and continuing uninterrupted through January, finally and convincingly resemble, and precisely and absolutely become the competently-coached, high caliber, bone-crunching, yardage-defending, posterior-kicking, mega-point-scoring, , game-WINNING, nationally-embraceable, awe-inspiring, CowboysFan-jaw-dropping, take-the-bull-by-the-horns, deliver-the-goods, NFL playoffs-bound professional-frigging football team that they aspire to be and that by-golly we believe they can, should and will be. Now!!

Discuss ….

Where do you see Indy's three losses coming from? Outside the division, their toughest games are N.E. (@ home), Baltimore (road), Denver (@ home). I can see them taking at least two of those three; maybe all of them. Do you think the Jets, Bills, or 49ers can take them down? Not me. Maybe they split with the division teams; but that's a fair-sized "maybe".

CharloTex
10-28-2009, 10:03 AM
Where do you see Indy's three losses coming from? Outside the division, their toughest games are N.E. (@ home), Baltimore (road), Denver (@ home). I can see them taking at least two of those three; maybe all of them. Do you think the Jets, Bills, or 49ers can take them down? Not me. Maybe they split with the division teams; but that's a fair-sized "maybe".

I figured them losing to us in Houston, and to Jacksonville and Baltimore on the road. They could instead lose close games to Denver or NE, and a healthy NYJ might not be a cake walk. Strong as they appear now, I just believe they will lose 3 games. I remember this time last year we were looking at the remaining Tennessee schedule and thinking none of their opponents presented a significant challenge to a perfect season. Then of course they went 13-3, and lost their first playoff game. This is the NFL, not intramural football. Nevermind ANY given Sunday, EVERY given Sunday is a hard fought game subject to potential upset and defeat.

At 14-2, 13-3, or 12-4, it hardly matters, I don't see a scenerio whereby Indy isn't the top seed in the AFC and the clear winner in our division.

Trail.Blazr
10-28-2009, 10:12 AM
Phooey..

I understand that as a TEam, they can't look past the Bills for one second, but as Fans, we can look to week 17 if we want.. no problem. However....

Week 9 is the biggest week of our team's young season. AT INDY. This is a tone setting game that is the start of a 4 game divisional gauntlet. IMHO, we have to sweep the Colts, which this team has the moxy to do. A rosencopter play aside, we've played the Colts as good as the best in recent times, and I don't see that being different today.

If we don't sweep the Colts, we are at best a bubble team hoping for others to flounder, which is still a chance, but not the way I want to see us bust into the playoffs finally.

You don't win at Indy, and it's not a pretty picture for the remainder of the season.

CharloTex
10-28-2009, 10:16 AM
I'm not so sure Denver finishes 5-5. I thought they would've been exposed with the Denver/NE/@SD run already. I could see them pulling off another win against Baltimore, Indy, at home vs SD, or Pittsburgh -- though definitely not all of them. Most of the other spots I can see happening.

I have them losing at Baltimore this weekend, getting beat at home by Pittsburgh and NY Giants, and losing road games to Indy and Philly. Or you might substitute a loss to SD in Denver. Also, their last game may be insignificant to their ranking so they may play scrubs at home against KC - still not much of a challenge but anything can happen week 17 (remember our game against Cleveland 4 years ago).

I just find it hard to climb on the Denver bandwagon with both feet after these 6 early games. How does a team with a pathetic defense last year go to having one of the best defenses this year? I think it will balance out more toward the middle norm by season's end. Hey, there's no shame in an 11-5 record and winning their division!

CharloTex
10-28-2009, 10:26 AM
You don't win at Indy, and it's not a pretty picture for the remainder of the season.

I totally agree with you as to the importance of a win(s) against Indy. My scenario is based on at least 1 win against them, but I figured it would be more likely at our house. If we win big in Buffalo this weekend, then go into Indy with huge pockets full of confidence, nothing says we can't steal a win from them in their house and that would just be spectacularly HUGE. It would propel us to more success and totally set the tone for the rest of the bye week, and the rest of the season.