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m5kwatts
07-03-2009, 03:40 PM
I've been wondering this all offseason and I'm sure its been discussed in a thread somewhere so here's my question:

What has to happen in order for Kubiak to get an extension?

Some of you may already want Kubiak replaced by Cowher, some of you may think he deserves an extension as of right now, most of us are probably somewhere in between.

What I THINK is going to happen is McNair will wait until the season is over to decide. Getting to the playoffs gets an automatic extension...but this is where it gets interesting

What if we miss the playoffs win 9 games and have a great year doing it? What if we win 9 games and fight injuries all year?

Regardless, I think another 8-8 season however it happens will be the end for Kubiak unfortunately.

Personally I really like the guy and hope we have a great season and he gets that extension and hangs around for 10-15 years and we win some superbowls and make the playoffs every year but thats obviously a dream.

Ckw
07-03-2009, 03:42 PM
I've been wondering this all offseason and I'm sure its been discussed in a thread somewhere so here's my question:

What has to happen in order for Kubiak to get an extension?

Some of you may already want Kubiak replaced by Cowher, some of you may think he deserves an extension as of right now, most of us are probably somewhere in between.

What I THINK is going to happen is McNair will wait until the season is over to decide. Getting to the playoffs gets an automatic extension...but this is where it gets interesting

What if we miss the playoffs win 9 games and have a great year doing it? What if we win 9 games and fight injuries all year?

Regardless, I think another 8-8 season however it happens will be the end for Kubiak unfortunately.

Personally I really like the guy and hope we have a great season and he gets that extension and hangs around for 10-15 years and we win some superbowls and make the playoffs every year but thats obviously a dream.

If we only win 9 games, I think he is gone. If we win 10 but don't make the playoffs, he probably stays. If we make the playoffs, he stays.

TheRealJoker
07-03-2009, 03:44 PM
Its up to Frank Bush. Kubiak put his faith in him and the extension goes through the defense imo...

If Mcnair extends him after another 8-8 season no matter how we "look" getting to .500 then I will lose a lot of faith in Mcnair and will no longer refer to the extending of Carr as "just an aberration."

m5kwatts
07-03-2009, 04:00 PM
Its up to Frank Bush. Kubiak put his faith in him and the extension goes through the defense imo...

If Mcnair extends him after another 8-8 season no matter how we "look" getting to .500 then I will lose a lot of faith in Mcnair and will no longer refer to the extending of Carr as "just an aberration."

The boss would've already extended him if he was that dumb.... I think its going to be interesting though if we start hot like 5-0 and look great and are the talk of the league...it'll be tough fighting the temptation to extend him mid-season...not very many coaches coach out their entire first contract to the end and return to that team with an extension the next season although it appears that McNair will go that route

WWJD
07-03-2009, 05:33 PM
Probably if they win he stays.

If they don't he doesn't.

Barring injuries of course.

gtexan02
07-03-2009, 05:35 PM
My guess is if we win more 7 or more games, he stays. If we have a major regression and go 6-10 or worse, he might be fired. Only way he definitely gets fired, knowing McNair, is if we completely tank and end up 4-12 or something awful like that

Texecutioner
07-03-2009, 05:37 PM
Kubes is on the hot seat. :stirpot:

WWJD
07-03-2009, 05:43 PM
What if they win 8 BUT have a ton of injuries to key players? I know BITE MY TONGUE but what if that happens?

What then?

Thorn
07-03-2009, 05:59 PM
What if they win 8 BUT have a ton of injuries to key players? I know BITE MY TONGUE but what if that happens?

What then?

Exactly. If there is a reason (injuries, whatever) that we go 8-8 again, then I think he stays. If we go 8-8 again because of nothing in particular, and most players are still intact at the end of the season, I still think he might get one more year.

My own feelings are I like Kubiak and hope he succeeds. I hope he stays here for a long time. I still believe Kubiak will take us to the promised land.

WWJD
07-03-2009, 06:09 PM
He's certainly not the best but he's not bad.

And I do think the players respond to him....he seems like a real smart guy...good community guy...

He just needs to get over that hump. He can't go out and play the game...needs to work on his game/clock management....perhaps as the team excels he will as well.

m5kwatts
07-03-2009, 06:10 PM
Exactly. If there is a reason (injuries, whatever) that we go 8-8 again, then I think he stays. If we go 8-8 again because of nothing in particular, and most players are still intact at the end of the season, I still think he might get one more year.

My own feelings are I like Kubiak and hope he succeeds. I hope he stays here for a long time. I still believe Kubiak will take us to the promised land.

This is the tricky part though, his contract is up and a one year extension can't happen. #1 Kubiak rightfully so would want more stability and comfort with a multi-year extension #2 Its a tough sell to fans for the 3rd year in a row that 8-8 every year means were getting better

If Kubiak gets an extension I think its going to be the 3-5 year variety and a big time endorsement from the front office, and this is the only way it can go....

Thorn
07-03-2009, 06:16 PM
This is the tricky part though, his contract is up and a one year extension can't happen. #1 Kubiak rightfully so would want more stability and comfort with a multi-year extension #2 Its a tough sell to fans for the 3rd year in a row that 8-8 every year means were getting better

If Kubiak gets an extension I think its going to be the 3-5 year variety and a big time endorsement from the front office, and this is the only way it can go....

I didn't know his contract was up. Yikes. Go Kubes, go! Get us into the playoffs! :texflag:

Marcus
07-03-2009, 06:23 PM
Barring injuries of course.

Goatcheese
07-03-2009, 06:25 PM
If the offense continues to perform and the defense continues to stink on ice, I think Bob will extend Kubiak, but fire Bush and strip control of who is hired to replace him as DC from Gary.

JB
07-03-2009, 06:37 PM
I think the Texans would really have to regress for Kubiak to lose his job.
Fisher had 3 8-8 seasons with the Titans and then followed two 13-3 seasons, including a Super Bowl apperance. As long as the Texans continue to show progress Kubiak will continue to run the team. You do not fire a quality leader until he cannot continue to improve.

If the Texans lose because of injuries or lack of poersonnel, Kubiak is safe.

If he loses the locker room, or continues bone-headed play calling he will be fired.

Bob McNair is a businessman and knows that you cannot manage like AL DAVIS and ever succeed.

Kubiak is here for awhile.
TEXANS TURN IS NOW!

WWJD
07-03-2009, 06:50 PM
I wonder IF Kubiak got tossed if he'd be in line for another head coaching job anywhere else?

Asking you guys..is he thought of highly around the league or just another coach? I don't watch all the ESPN's and NFLN like so many do here...

Lucky
07-03-2009, 07:31 PM
What if we miss the playoffs win 9 games and have a great year doing it?
How could the Texans win 9 games, miss the playoffs, and still have what would be considered a "great year"?

I didn't know his contract was up. Yikes. Go Kubes, go! Get us into the playoffs! :texflag:
The Texans' head coach is under contract through the 2010 season.


If the Texans lose because of injuries or lack of poersonnel, Kubiak is safe.
He chose the personnel on this team. Other than AJ, Pitts, Dunta, and Kris Brown. How could he still get a pass because of that shortcoming?

Anyway, I doubt anyone will provide insight on this topic that wasn't already covered here (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61183&highlight=Kubiak+seat).

GNTLEWOLF
07-03-2009, 08:18 PM
How could the Texans win 9 games, miss the playoffs, and still have what would be considered a "great year"?


The Texans' head coach is under contract through the 2010 season.


He chose the personnel on this team. Other than AJ, Pitts, Dunta, and Kris Brown. How could he still get a pass because of that shortcoming?

Anyway, I doubt anyone will provide insight on this topic that wasn't already covered here (http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61183&highlight=Kubiak+seat).
Thanks Lucky, I was wondering when this was going to be refererred back to that thread.

IlliniJen
07-03-2009, 08:55 PM
I think it comes down to a couple simple factors:

1. Tangible improvement on D.
2. A winning record.

Contributing factors:

3. Winning the games we're supposed to win.
4. Coming into road games prepared and confident.

Any major injury or two is could derail the team but give Kubes a mulligan for a poor record.

m5kwatts
07-03-2009, 09:12 PM
How could the Texans win 9 games, miss the playoffs, and still have what would be considered a "great year"?
t=61183&highlight=Kubiak+seat"]here[/URL].

-If our offense puts up big numbers and were scoring 27-30 points a game like were very well capable of doing

-If the AFC is really really competitive and other 9 or 10 win teams miss the playoffs too

-If we're so rattled with injuries and I mean big ones to key guys and we still manage to win 9

m5kwatts
07-03-2009, 09:16 PM
I wonder IF Kubiak got tossed if he'd be in line for another head coaching job anywhere else?

Asking you guys..is he thought of highly around the league or just another coach? I don't watch all the ESPN's and NFLN like so many do here...

My guess would be OC'ing for whatever team hires Shanahan

The Texans would not be his last HC job if we let him go tho

Norg
07-03-2009, 11:02 PM
depends on who is avabile at the time If cower or shannhan wants to be our coach then yeah kubes is on the hot seat if neither of the two wanna be coach for houston then Maybe Kubes is not on the hot seat even if we only win like 7 games

IlliniJen
07-03-2009, 11:07 PM
I wonder IF Kubiak got tossed if he'd be in line for another head coaching job anywhere else?

Asking you guys..is he thought of highly around the league or just another coach? I don't watch all the ESPN's and NFLN like so many do here...

If he got tossed, I would be surprised if he's snatched up as a HC. He would have accomplished nothing if he's fired to put him in line for a job as a head coach. I think people would view his reign (assuming 8-8 or worse next year) as a failure given the talent on this team and the rumblings of "watch out for the Texans this coming season" that we've been hearing the past couple of years.

Of course, as long as the Detroit Lions are around, there will always be a team that would hire anyone or anything, even if it were a piece of gum stuck to the bottom of a shoe. So good luck, you chewed up and spit out piece of Hubba Bubba...the Lions have their eyes on you!

RagingBull
07-03-2009, 11:19 PM
All the fans on the Broncos message boards are waiting for McDaniels to fail and then they all want to hire Kubes.

WWJD
07-03-2009, 11:30 PM
My guess would be OC'ing for whatever team hires Shanahan

The Texans would not be his last HC job if we let him go tho

I hadn't thought of him doing that. You are probably right. Of course I'm sure he likes doing what he's doing right now. Thanks for the input.

WWJD
07-03-2009, 11:31 PM
If he got tossed, I would be surprised if he's snatched up as a HC. He would have accomplished nothing if he's fired to put him in line for a job as a head coach. I think people would view his reign (assuming 8-8 or worse next year) as a failure given the talent on this team and the rumblings of "watch out for the Texans this coming season" that we've been hearing the past couple of years.

Of course, as long as the Detroit Lions are around, there will always be a team that would hire anyone or anything, even if it were a piece of gum stuck to the bottom of a shoe. So good luck, you chewed up and spit out piece of Hubba Bubba...the Lions have their eyes on you!

I honestly don't even know who the current Lions coach is. Probably should as an NFL fan but I don't.

Mari-OWNED!
07-04-2009, 12:08 AM
Yes it is definitely true that this is a very important year for Mr. Kubiak. My only question though is who would we replace him with?

I don't see Bill Cowher, Mike Shanahan, or Jon Gruden as being potential candidates. So who would we be interested in?

Unless the Texans totally tank next season, I want Kubiak to stay. Even if we go 8-8 again. (Hopefully not though!)

Grams
07-04-2009, 02:30 AM
Didn't we just go through like a hundred pages of this already?

Ok it was only 26 pages of Kubes on the hotseat.

ObsiWan
07-04-2009, 03:43 AM
Didn't we just go through like a hundred pages of this already?

Ok it was only 26 pages of Kubes on the hotseat.

Yes, we've already established that Kubiak, just like any coach that isn't within 2-3 yrs of a Super Bowl appearance, is on the "hot seat".

My question to all those who say "playoffs or fire the bum" continues to be: who will replace Kubiak?
I agree with Mari-Owned. Neither Cowher nor Shanahan is likely to come here - I see Jerry Jones picking up one of them as Wade Phillips' replacement after they fail to make the playoffs again this year. Dan Synder probably picks up the other one after the Jim Zorn experiment fails ...again. Both of those teams made "big splash moves" this off-season, so if they don't make the playoffs heads will roll.

I detest Gruden so much that I'd burn all my Texans gear if they hired him. I mean it.

IlliniJen
07-04-2009, 09:09 AM
I honestly don't even know who the current Lions coach is. Probably should as an NFL fan but I don't.

I don't think there's anything wrong with not knowing who the Lions's coach is, as they are in the NFL by technicality only. Don't beat yourself up, NFL fan!

WWJD
07-04-2009, 09:19 AM
I don't think there's anything wrong with not knowing who the Lions's coach is, as they are in the NFL by technicality only. Don't beat yourself up, NFL fan!

The bad thing is I'm too lazy to even look it up.

Lucky
07-04-2009, 09:23 AM
My question to all those who say "playoffs or fire the bum" continues to be: who will replace Kubiak?
That's a horrible reason to keep a head coach. Either the coach is getting the job done, or he's not. Fear of replacing an unsuccessful coach is nonsensical.

The bad thing is I'm too lazy to even look it up.
Former Titan DC Jim Schwartz. Sadly, I didn't have to look it up.

Vinny
07-04-2009, 09:24 AM
The bad thing is I'm too lazy to even look it up.

They just signed the Titans ex-defensive coordinator. Jim Schwartz....too bad the Lions couldn't let him bring Fat Albert with him.

Lucky
07-04-2009, 09:30 AM
They just signed the Titans ex-defensive coordinator. Jim Schwartz....
And, I believe, a good hire. Guess the Lions weren't afraid of change?

norcaltexan
07-04-2009, 10:30 AM
And, I believe, a good hire. Guess the Lions weren't afraid of change?after going 0 and 16 whats to be afraid of?

WWJD
07-04-2009, 10:33 AM
Well there you go guys..Coach Schwartz..thanks.

Detroit seems to have the pox right now..the city is in horrible shape, the mayor is/was a crook and the Red Wings lost the Cup.

Eck! Maybe the Lions can win a game or two this year.

IlliniJen
07-04-2009, 10:38 AM
They just signed the Titans ex-defensive coordinator. Jim Schwartz....too bad the Lions couldn't let him bring Fat Albert with him.

If the Lions have ANY success this year, what's the over/under on the city making some sort of Space Balls "believe in the Schwartz!" reference?

Lucky
07-04-2009, 10:45 AM
after going 0 and 16 whats to be afraid of?
And if the Texans have a 4th consecutive non-winning, non-playoff season (0-fer franchise history, to boot), they should be just as fearless.

ObsiWan
07-04-2009, 11:30 AM
That's a horrible reason to keep a head coach. Either the coach is getting the job done, or he's not. Fear of replacing an unsuccessful coach is nonsensical.


I suppose I didn't make myself clear. Fear has nothing to do with my question. I genuinely do not see anyone that's significantly better than the coaching team we've already assembled. And before people mention Cowher, ask yourself just how successful he would have been if he had Richard Smith running his defense instead of Dick LeBeau.

And regarding being "unsuccessful", I guess there are 20 "unsuccessful" coaches every season since only 12 out of 32 teams make the playoffs. So by that definition, there should be 20 guys looking for jobs every year.

Vinny
07-04-2009, 11:55 AM
I suppose I didn't make myself clear. Fear has nothing to do with my question. I genuinely do not see anyone that's significantly better than the coaching team we've already assembled. And before people mention Cowher, ask yourself just how successful he would have been if he had Richard Smith running his defense instead of Dick LeBeau.

And regarding being "unsuccessful", I guess there are 20 "unsuccessful" coaches every season since only 12 out of 32 teams make the playoffs. So by that definition, there should be 20 guys looking for jobs every year.

how many of them have four or five consecutive non-winning, non-playoff seasons?

Lucky
07-04-2009, 11:56 AM
I
And regarding being "unsuccessful", I guess there are 20 "unsuccessful" coaches every season since only 12 out of 32 teams make the playoffs. So by that definition, there should be 20 guys looking for jobs every year.
No, that's you twisting words. Here is what I said.

And if the Texans have a 4th consecutive non-winning, non-playoff season (0-fer franchise history, to boot), they should be just as fearless.
That's not one bad season. Just about everyone gets a mulligan. I'm talking about the possibility of 4 non-successful seasons. Which, BTW, I am not predicting.

Did you "genuinely" see 1st year coaches like Mike Smith, John Harbaugh, and Tony Sparano turning their respective franchises around? Just because you can't forecast the possibility, doesn't mean it can't occur.

BSofA04
07-04-2009, 12:14 PM
I don't think Kubiak would be fired, even if he went 8-8 again. Mainely because I don't see how firing Kubiak would do more good than bad. First, he has the personel for a very specific type of offense. Hiring someone like Cowher would require bigger o-linemen for a power running game, 3-4 personel for the defense, etc. Short of hiring Shannahan (which wouldn't be different), we'd set ourselves back.

How long of an extension Kubiak gets is dependent on the teams performance in 2009. He won't and shouldn't be fired.

Lucky
07-04-2009, 12:39 PM
First, he has the personel for a very specific type of offense.
The WCO is one of the most popular, and duplicated, offenses in the NFL. I'm not suggesting that this coaching staff doesn't bring its own flavor to the WCO. Just that WCO offensive geniuses aren't difficult to find.

Regarding the personnel, Andre Johnson & Steve Slaton could thrive in almost any offense. Matt Schaub isn't even the typical WCO QB. And aside from maybe Chris Myers, the offensive lineman are capable of performing in other systems. That the Texans are tied to this coaching staff, win or lose, due to the talent onhand is unfounded.

m5kwatts
07-04-2009, 02:42 PM
Personnel would NOT be a factor in whether or not Kubiak keeps his job, it will be completely performance related. I think his job is safe if he makes the playoffs with very few exceptions otherwise.

McNair knows he has the best roster he's ever had right now. He also knows the Texans would be the most attractive coaching vacancy because of the level of talent on the current roster.

Remember, the Cowboys and Redskins can offer the opportunity to be in the limelight, but there's also the negative side to that as your job is always in question (Zorn, Phillips). And this is my opinion too but I know for a fact Cowher has his eye on the Texans job because I've heard him gush over the squad on CBS halftime shows and he always speaks highly of us. The opportunity to come coach for a great owner in great facilities and weak weak media scrutiny is VERY attractive (factor in no state income tax as well). Pair that with some of the most talented young building blocks in football (Mario, Andre, Demeco, Cushing, Slaton, etc) and the Texans make for a hot coaching opportunity and McNair knows that.

The amount of pressure on Kubiak right now is immense and I don't envy the position he's in because the expectations are very high right now.

ObsiWan
07-04-2009, 03:35 PM
how many of them have four or five consecutive non-winning, non-playoff seasons?

Tom Landry didn't make the playoffs until his seventh season.
Bill Belichick didn't make the playoffs until his fourth season as a head coach.
Jeff Fisher didn't finish above .500 until his sixth year as a head coach.

It happens.
And I'll bet the Browns wish they'd have been a bit more patient with Belichick.

Vinny
07-04-2009, 03:46 PM
Tom Landry didn't make the playoffs until his seventh season. This one doesn't work for me....pre salary cap era...different dynamics.

Bill Belichick didn't make the playoffs until his fourth season as a head coach.
Jeff Fisher didn't finish above .500 until his sixth year as a head coach.

It happens.
And I'll bet the Browns wish they'd have been a bit more patient with Belichick.
there are always examples of success in a sports league. Just because you can point to a few guys doesn't make the norm.

ObsiWan
07-04-2009, 04:03 PM
No, that's you twisting words. Here is what I said.


That's not one bad season. Just about everyone gets a mulligan. I'm talking about the possibility of 4 non-successful seasons. Which, BTW, I am not predicting.

Did you "genuinely" see 1st year coaches like Mike Smith, John Harbaugh, and Tony Sparano turning their respective franchises around? Just because you can't forecast the possibility, doesn't mean it can't occur.

Given that only 4 of the players who were here when Kubiak showed up are still on the team, I considered 2006 as starting over - 2002 all over again.
Harbaugh, Sparano and Smith all had a core of solid, experienced veteran players who had come from winning teams. That contributed to their "instant" success.
Let's see if those teams sustain that success this year. Sean Payton had a "fantastic" initial season too - taking the Saints to the NFC Championship game. What have they done since?

All I'm saying is that I want us to build a sustainable winning team. Just being able to say "we made the playoffs" is kinda empty if we drop back down into the crapper the very next year. I don't want to relive 2005 ever again.

Maybe Kubiak's the guy to do that, maybe he ain't; time will tell. I just haven't seen anything that makes me think we'll go backwards, a la Capers, with Smithiak in the Head Shed.

ObsiWan
07-04-2009, 04:14 PM
This one doesn't work for me....pre salary cap era...different dynamics.

there are always examples of success in a sports league. Just because you can point to a few guys doesn't make the norm.

So which is "the norm", instant success like Harbaugh, Smith, and Sparano had last year or steady improvement that stands the test of time and results in a winning franchise?? I'm thinking that building a solid foundation takes a little time. Again, 2002 thru 2005 (and really 2006 since he was stuck with HWWNBN) don't count against the Kubiak regime.
(where's my Sunshine Club button)

TimeKiller
07-04-2009, 04:20 PM
Yuck, this thread again.....


I'll be back in the Sunshine Club if anyone wants to join me. The kool-aid is gooooooood. :texans:

Vinny
07-04-2009, 04:28 PM
So which is "the norm", instant success like Harbaugh, Smith, and Sparano had last year or steady improvement that stands the test of time and results in a winning franchise?? I'm thinking that building a solid foundation takes a little time. Again, 2002 thru 2005 (and really 2006 since he was stuck with HWWNBN) don't count against the Kubiak regime.
(where's my Sunshine Club button)

I'm on record of saying he won't be fired unless he pulls a 3 win season out of his hat....not sure why you want to prove to me he won't be fired 'cause I obviously don't think he will be. If he can't get into the playoffs in half a decade I ain't gonna put my money on him being our coach much longer....don't care how you slice it.

Lucky
07-04-2009, 05:07 PM
All I'm saying is that I want us to build a sustainable winning team. Just being able to say "we made the playoffs" is kinda empty if we drop back down into the crapper the very next year. I don't want to relive 2005 ever again.

Maybe Kubiak's the guy to do that, maybe he ain't; time will tell.
Four years is adequate time to tell. Few get that long. As far as the laughable assertion that Miami and Atlanta had superior rosters to the Texans in 2008 or that these teams are flashes in the pan, that's been covered ad nauseam in previous threads.

norcaltexan
07-04-2009, 05:47 PM
And if the Texans have a 4th consecutive non-winning, non-playoff season (0-fer franchise history, to boot), they should be just as fearless.I think it would be a mistake to make a change if we don't have a winning record or make the playoffs. As long as the team continues to improve I'm all for Kubes staying, if they take a step back then it's time to reconsider

bckey
07-04-2009, 06:34 PM
I'm on record of saying he won't be fired unless he pulls a 3 win season out of his hat....not sure why you want to prove to me he won't be fired 'cause I obviously don't think he will be. If he can't get into the playoffs in half a decade I ain't gonna put my money on him being our coach much longer....don't care how you slice it.

This sums up my thinking on this as well. Kubiak's job is safe and it should be.

ObsiWan
07-04-2009, 06:53 PM
Four years is adequate time to tell. Few get that long. As far as the laughable assertion that Miami and Atlanta had superior rosters to the Texans in 2008 or that these teams are flashes in the pan, that's been covered ad nauseam in previous threads.

so you're saying that the 2008 Dolphins and Falcons rosters were worse than the 2006 Texans and that Sparano and Smith pulled off miracles?? I was comparing first year coaching performances

and you're right, we've been over this before.
but it's dead time and reeeeeally boring.
:D

Lucky
07-04-2009, 06:58 PM
so you're saying that the 2008 Dolphins and Falcons rosters were worse than the 2006 Texans and that Sparano and Smith pulled off miracles??
Again, you are making up arguments. What I'm saying is that the Texans roster in 2008 was superior to what the Dolphins and Falcons fielded. The Dolphins and Falcons overachieved. The Texans underachieved. It's really that simple.

badboy
07-06-2009, 01:03 PM
What if we have an excellent year and Gary decides to go somewhere else for a kadjillion dollars? Oh wait! I know the answer. We have little Shanny who could then be the youngest NFL head coach in the history of history.

Lucky
07-06-2009, 01:13 PM
What if we have an excellent year and Gary decides to go somewhere else for a kadjillion dollars?
He would have to wait a year, as he is under contract through 2010, for somewhat less than a kadjillion.

Wow, déjà vu.

The Texans' head coach is under contract through the 2010 season.

HoustonFrog
07-06-2009, 01:45 PM
Shoot me

Here you go m5kwatts. Tell your boss you need the next few days off to read it.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61183&highlight=kubes

Texecutioner
07-06-2009, 01:53 PM
Four years is adequate time to tell. Few get that long. As far as the laughable assertion that Miami and Atlanta had superior rosters to the Texans in 2008 or that these teams are flashes in the pan, that's been covered ad nauseam in previous threads.

It's the constant excuse that Kubiak fans have tried to make for him for the last few years now. All of those other teams had much better rosters and veteran players and it's always been a bunch of bull. All of those franchises were really really bad just like the Texans were and they bounced back quick. Will they last? Who knows, that's the beauty of the NFL in that different teams can step up from year to year and have success.

I think the biggest thing with Kubiak will be how Schaub plays. That's the biggest thing with a ton of HC's is what QB they strap themselves to. Kubes said that he thought he could win with Carr and that didn't happen. People try saying that he just said that to get the job, but they don't know that was the case at all. Then Kubes went out and had us spend a lot on Schaub who has shown potential here and there, but so far hasn't stayed healthy. So a lot will depend on Schaub and if he can stay healthy this season and how well he can play if he does.

And the defense as well. Kubes wanted Bush to get the job, so the defense will have to have a pretty significant improvement as well. Kubes has had a lot of say so in personal so depending on how a well Schaub plays and how well the defense plays will greatly depend on Kubiak's future this season and how the over all team record ends according to those improvements.

m5kwatts
07-06-2009, 02:43 PM
Shoot me

Here you go m5kwatts. Tell your boss you need the next few days off to read it.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=61183&highlight=kubes

Lol. Thats sorta why I started the new one, I need all my vacation days!!

dalemurphy
07-06-2009, 02:45 PM
It's the constant excuse that Kubiak fans have tried to make for him for the last few years now. All of those other teams had much better rosters and veteran players and it's always been a bunch of bull. All of those franchises were really really bad just like the Texans were and they bounced back quick. Will they last? Who knows, that's the beauty of the NFL in that different teams can step up from year to year and have success.

I think the biggest thing with Kubiak will be how Schaub plays. That's the biggest thing with a ton of HC's is what QB they strap themselves to. Kubes said that he thought he could win with Carr and that didn't happen. People try saying that he just said that to get the job, but they don't know that was the case at all. Then Kubes went out and had us spend a lot on Schaub who has shown potential here and there, but so far hasn't stayed healthy. So a lot will depend on Schaub and if he can stay healthy this season and how well he can play if he does.

And the defense as well. Kubes wanted Bush to get the job, so the defense will have to have a pretty significant improvement as well. Kubes has had a lot of say so in personal so depending on how a well Schaub plays and how well the defense plays will greatly depend on Kubiak's future this season and how the over all team record ends according to those improvements.

First of all, the 2005 Texans were one of the most talent-depleted team I've seen since the salary cap era began. Second, it was in bad salary cap shape due to overpaid veteran players that stunk like Robaire Smith, Todd Wade, etc... Third, you simply can't compare the quality of a football coach by looking at W/L results in a single season. The team has improved markedly every season. This season should be one to judging Kubiak fairly harshly since he now has his staff in place, his draft picks have become young veterans, and the team now has quality talent and depth. That being said, I don't want the organization to hit the reset button if we go 10-6 and fail to make the playoffs- only because of jealousy that a team in the NFC made the playoffs after a poor season in '08.

That being said, if the defense remains a disaster and Bush proves to be an atrocious DC, and if Kubiak continues to make poor in game decisions regarding challenges, clock management, etc... Then, I'd be interested in a coaching change even if we did limp into the playoffs.

Texecutioner
07-06-2009, 03:10 PM
First of all, the 2005 Texans were one of the most talent-depleted team I've seen since the salary cap era began. Second, it was in bad salary cap shape due to overpaid veteran players that stunk like Robaire Smith, Todd Wade, etc... Third, you simply can't compare the quality of a football coach by looking at W/L results in a single season. The team has improved markedly every season. This season should be one to judging Kubiak fairly harshly since he now has his staff in place, his draft picks have become young veterans, and the team now has quality talent and depth. That being said, I don't want the organization to hit the reset button if we go 10-6 and fail to make the playoffs- only because of jealousy that a team in the NFC made the playoffs after a poor season in '08.

That being said, if the defense remains a disaster and Bush proves to be an atrocious DC, and if Kubiak continues to make poor in game decisions regarding challenges, clock management, etc... Then, I'd be interested in a coaching change even if we did limp into the playoffs.

My point is that a lot of teams were in similar situations and they bounced back faster. Sure, that isn't the norm for any team that was that bad to bounce back that easy, but teams have done it in recent years. Maybe they didn't sustain that success the previous season, but they did bounce back into being a winning team and then at least a respectable one. I've heard a lot of explanations for it that didn't carry that much water. The Saints and the Jets were pretty much in the same type of situation and had a coaching change and both went to the post season the very next year. Different situations of course, but it did happen. I thought Kubiak's approach that entire season was just to evaluate instead of trying to win games and go all out. I hated that freaking season.

Like I said though, Kubiak's biggest factor this season to me will be on what Schaub does. Schaub is the QB that he convinced management to give up a lot for and he was unproven and still is to some degree. If Schaub goes down again, then it won't look good for Kubiak at all. If Schaub stays healthy but just has a sub par season, then it still won't look good. Schaub has the play makers on offense to hand the ball of to and to throw the ball to, and he'll have a pretty good O line to block for him, so he'll have no excuses not to have a successful season if he stays healthy.

Then secondly Kubiak got the guy he wanted to run the defense, so he'll have to live with how that defense goes and how well it improves or doesn't improve. The team drafted a lot of pieces to help out on defense and now they'll have a new scheme that is supposed to be a lot more aggressive than what we've seen in the past, so there should be a significant improvement.

Those are the biggest two things that will effect Kubiak's future here next season.

Double Barrel
07-06-2009, 03:46 PM
My guess is if we win more 7 or more games, he stays. If we have a major regression and go 6-10 or worse, he might be fired. Only way he definitely gets fired, knowing McNair, is if we completely tank and end up 4-12 or something awful like that

This is how I see it, as well. I do not perceive Mr. McNair being prone to high turnover, and 2-14 just forced his hand. I think if Capers had went 5-11 that year he would have gotten a fourth season to turn it around. I think Kubiak will have to suffer a major meltdown of a season to get fired by this owner...at least at this point in time. JMO

how many of them have four or five consecutive non-winning, non-playoff seasons?

ouch! Man, it's a fact you know, but it just hurts reading it. It been waaaay too long since this town had a winning football team.

TEXANRED
07-06-2009, 05:08 PM
ouch! Man, it's a fact you know, but it just hurts reading it. It been waaaay too long since this town had a winning football team.

Approx 6pm on Jan 9, 1994. That makes it four thousand seven hundred thirty five days 11 hours 54 minutes and still going.

But who is counting?

The Pencil Neck
07-06-2009, 08:58 PM
My point is that a lot of teams were in similar situations and they bounced back faster.

I'm about to say something I don't have facts for BUT I'll research it later tonight and try to see if I'm right.

Occasionally a team will bounce back faster than we did but most teams don't. My feeling is that most teams change coaches and end up with the same or a worse record the next year. Occasionally you have one that's better by more than 2 games in the W column, and rarely you have won that's MARKEDLY better (over 5 games in the W column). I think last year was odd because we had a couple of HUGE turnarounds. But I think that's an oddity.

And I think, but again no proof, that most dynasties didn't turn around immediately. Sometimes they got worse before getting better.

For me, Kubiak has drastically improved this team. As drastic as Sparano/Parcells last year with the Dolphins? No. As drastic as Mike Smith with the Falcons? No. But still pretty damned good. And I'm hoping that Kubiak is building something that's going to remain good for a long time. But just because he had two 8-8 years in a row... I mean... I wouldn't fire a guy for that even if I had a tradition of winning. That looks like a classic over-reaction to me. This team has a tradition of losing and those back-to-back .500 seasons should be freaking cherished and nurtured and hopefully great things will grow from them. I can't see how you can look at the two best years of our team's existence and then fire someone for doing the best we've ever had. That's like firing Bum because he couldn't get past the Steelers.

GP
07-06-2009, 09:04 PM
All the fans on the Broncos message boards are waiting for McDaniels to fail and then they all want to hire Kubes.

And that might end up happening if the Texans somehow decline to retain Kubiak past 2010. Things would have to go badly for McDaniels AND for Kubiak for the 09 and 10 season(s).

But if the cards play out that way, that's a no-brainer for Bowlen. And Shanny Jr. will be right there as the OC.

steelbtexan
07-06-2009, 09:10 PM
I'm about to say something I don't have facts for BUT I'll research it later tonight and try to see if I'm right.

Occasionally a team will bounce back faster than we did but most teams don't. My feeling is that most teams change coaches and end up with the same or a worse record the next year. Occasionally you have one that's better by more than 2 games in the W column, and rarely you have won that's MARKEDLY better (over 5 games in the W column). I think last year was odd because we had a couple of HUGE turnarounds. But I think that's an oddity.

And I think, but again no proof, that most dynasties didn't turn around immediately. Sometimes they got worse before getting better.

For me, Kubiak has drastically improved this team. As drastic as Sparano/Parcells last year with the Dolphins? No. As drastic as Mike Smith with the Falcons? No. But still pretty damned good. And I'm hoping that Kubiak is building something that's going to remain good for a long time. But just because he had two 8-8 years in a row... I mean... I wouldn't fire a guy for that even if I had a tradition of winning. That looks like a classic over-reaction to me. This team has a tradition of losing and those back-to-back .500 seasons should be freaking cherished and nurtured and hopefully great things will grow from them. I can't see how you can look at the two best years of our team's existence and then fire someone for doing the best we've ever had. That's like firing Bum because he couldn't get past the Steelers.

Spot ON

kcdoubleeagle
07-06-2009, 09:19 PM
Kubiak's Future.......Long term contract extension after the Houston Texans win the 2010 Super Bowl!!!!.......................................... .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ................God I hate the offseason.:brickwall:

ObsiWan
07-06-2009, 11:57 PM
I'm about to say something I don't have facts for BUT I'll research it later tonight and try to see if I'm right.

Occasionally a team will bounce back faster than we did but most teams don't. My feeling is that most teams change coaches and end up with the same or a worse record the next year. Occasionally you have one that's better by more than 2 games in the W column, and rarely you have won that's MARKEDLY better (over 5 games in the W column). I think last year was odd because we had a couple of HUGE turnarounds. But I think that's an oddity.

And I think, but again no proof, that most dynasties didn't turn around immediately. Sometimes they got worse before getting better.

For me, Kubiak has drastically improved this team. As drastic as Sparano/Parcells last year with the Dolphins? No. As drastic as Mike Smith with the Falcons? No. But still pretty damned good. And I'm hoping that Kubiak is building something that's going to remain good for a long time. But just because he had two 8-8 years in a row... I mean... I wouldn't fire a guy for that even if I had a tradition of winning. That looks like a classic over-reaction to me. This team has a tradition of losing and those back-to-back .500 seasons should be freaking cherished and nurtured and hopefully great things will grow from them. I can't see how you can look at the two best years of our team's existence and then fire someone for doing the best we've ever had. That's like firing Bum because he couldn't get past the Steelers.

:goodpost:
Rep!
I started doing the research you're speaking of and soon realized it would be a big job and probably wouldn't change the minds of those who want Kubiak's head because he hasn't pulled the kind of rabbit out of the hat that Mike Smith, Sparano/Parcells, and Jim Harbaugh did last year.

I did find out that when Fisher first took over the Oilers/Titans he had five non-winning seasons (1994-1998) in a row - the last three being 8-8 seasons. Even Bud knew not to screw with the turnaround that was in progress. I'd hate to think that Bob McNair is less patient than Bud.

The Pencil Neck
07-07-2009, 12:12 AM
I'm about to say something I don't have facts for BUT I'll research it later tonight and try to see if I'm right.

Since 1990, if you've got X number of wins in a season and change your coach, the average change in the number of wins.

1 - 7.25 (4 times)
2 - 3.67 (6 times)
3 - 3.30 (13 times)
4 - 3.11 (18 times)
5 - 2.38 (13 times)
6 - 0.85 (15 times)
7 - -0.62 (12 times)
8 - -0.85 (13 times)
9 - -0.30 (12 times)
10 - -0.75 (4 times)
11 - -2.00 (2 times)
12 - -1.77 (2 times)
13 - -4.00 (2 times)
14 - -3.00 (1 time)

For an 8 win team, the best that's happened was in 1992 when the Vikings went from a 8 win team to an 11 win team with the change of Coach (Dennis Green with Brian Billick and Tony Dungy, iirc). The worst was the Bills in 2001 when they went from a 8 win team to a 3 win team when they fired Wade Phillips and went to Gregg Williams.

I think it's interesting that if you've got more than 5 wins and change your coach, you usually do worse the next year. That's not saying that the change isn't eventually for the best (for example, the Rams with Vermiel).

I've actually got something else I want to do with these numbers but it's got to wait until later.

krocket
07-07-2009, 01:18 AM
A lot depends on what the new coach gets to start with. I would venture that most good new coaches would at least stay at 8-8 with the team that Kubiak leaves them. On the other hand I am not sure those coaches listed above would not have had any more success with the team that Kubiak inherited. Good players make a lot of good coaches. IMO the first 8-8 season was an aberation (luck) but last year I believe we were a legitimate 8-8 or better team. This year 10-6 is a reasonable goal if Schaub can stay healthy.

ObsiWan
07-07-2009, 06:35 AM
Since 1990, if you've got X number of wins in a season and change your coach, the average change in the number of wins.

1 - 7.25 (4 times)
2 - 3.67 (6 times)
3 - 3.30 (13 times)
4 - 3.11 (18 times)
5 - 2.38 (13 times)
6 - 0.85 (15 times)
7 - -0.62 (12 times)
8 - -0.85 (13 times)
9 - -0.30 (12 times)
10 - -0.75 (4 times)
11 - -2.00 (2 times)
12 - -1.77 (2 times)
13 - -4.00 (2 times)
14 - -3.00 (1 time)

For an 8 win team, the best that's happened was in 1992 when the Vikings went from a 8 win team to an 11 win team with the change of Coach (Dennis Green with Brian Billick and Tony Dungy, iirc). The worst was the Bills in 2001 when they went from a 8 win team to a 3 win team when they fired Wade Phillips and went to Gregg Williams.

I think it's interesting that if you've got more than 5 wins and change your coach, you usually do worse the next year. That's not saying that the change isn't eventually for the best (for example, the Rams with Vermiel).

I've actually got something else I want to do with these numbers but it's got to wait until later.

So what I take away from this is that if you're 8-8 team (+/- 1 win) changing coaches has rarely resulted in immediate improvement. The better payoff is when you're down in 4 win or less territory - no where to go but up I suppose.

And as a matter of clarification, Dennis Green went 11-5 when he took over the 7-9 Vikings for Jerry Burns in 1992.

And for you Bill Cowher fans, he went 11-5 his first year (1992) after taking over for Chuck Knoll who'd gone 7-9 the year before. Of course, Chuck's Steelers had won the division title the previous year (1990) so its not like Cowher had to rebuild a totally sucky team.
:)

Runner
07-07-2009, 08:19 AM
These numbers also indicate Kubiak's first year success was ... average. Interesting.

ArlingtonTexan
07-07-2009, 08:58 AM
-If our offense puts up big numbers and were scoring 27-30 points a game like were very well capable of doing

-If the AFC is really really competitive and other 9 or 10 win teams miss the playoffs too

-If we're so rattled with injuries and I mean big ones to key guys and we still manage to win 9

I woke up a couple of years ago and the word "great" had transferred to meaning what used to mean pretty good to good. In other words, overcoming injury and tough division to have a winning record is a good job (more than enough to keep Kubiak's job). I am not Super bowl or bust guy, but not making the playoffs can never be classified a great year..i.e. the Texans have yet to have a great year as an organization.

HOU-TEX
07-07-2009, 08:58 AM
I like Kubiak

Hervoyel
07-07-2009, 09:10 AM
8 or more wins with the team playing hard for him the entire way will get Kubiak an extension. Obviously everyone would rather see them win 11-12 games but unless we see a collapse of some sort I don't think Bob lets Kubiak go. He's committed to "The Plan (TM)".

I do genuinely believe that if Bob McNair keeps him with an 8-8 record in 2009 then Kubiak needs 10-11 wins in 2010 or he's done regardless of how many years he's got on his contract at that point. McNair will be expecting Jeff Fisher like results in the win column at that point and if the Texans don't give Kubiak the kind of record and effort that McNair thinks he's paid for then it will be rebuilding time.

Runner
07-07-2009, 09:32 AM
I woke up a couple of years ago and the word "great" had transferred to meaning what used to mean pretty good to good. In other words, overcoming injury and tough division to have a winning record is a good job (more than enough to keep Kubiak's job). I am not Super bowl or bust guy, but not making the playoffs can never be classified a great year..i.e. the Texans have yet to have a great year as an organization.

Great post. :shades:

Malloy
07-07-2009, 09:45 AM
I woke up a couple of years ago and the word "great" had transferred to meaning what used to mean pretty good to good. In other words, overcoming injury and tough division to have a winning record is a good job (more than enough to keep Kubiak's job). I am not Super bowl or bust guy, but not making the playoffs can never be classified a great year..i.e. the Texans have yet to have a great year as an organization.

Spot on!

The Pencil Neck
07-07-2009, 11:49 AM
So what I take away from this is that if you're 8-8 team (+/- 1 win) changing coaches has rarely resulted in immediate improvement. The better payoff is when you're down in 4 win or less territory - no where to go but up I suppose.

And as a matter of clarification, Dennis Green went 11-5 when he took over the 7-9 Vikings for Jerry Burns in 1992.

And for you Bill Cowher fans, he went 11-5 his first year (1992) after taking over for Chuck Knoll who'd gone 7-9 the year before. Of course, Chuck's Steelers had won the division title the previous year (1990) so its not like Cowher had to rebuild a totally sucky team.
:)

I wouldn't say "rarely".

You've got 5 positive changes, 1 no change, and 7 negative changes. Three of the positive changes were just getting a 1 game improvement (and then Green with 3 and Tomlin with 2). The negatives were more negative: 2 teams dropped 1 game back, 1 team dropped 2, 2 teams dropped 3, then 1 team each had 4 and 5 less wins. So, if you do make an improvement, it's probably only a game but if you make it worse, you're probably going to drop 3 from your win total.

So there's not a lot of bang for your buck firing an 8-8 coach. You've got to make sure you've got the right guy lined up to take his place if you're going to do it. Now, if he has a year of <=6 wins, go for it.

ArlingtonTexan
07-07-2009, 01:24 PM
Great post. :shades:

:goodpost:

El Tejano
07-07-2009, 01:39 PM
I hate to say it but in this particular case Mcnair should look to see how Bud Adams handled Jeff Fisher's back to back 8-8 teams. He stayed with his man. Now Fisher has the longest current tenure of head coaches and has repeatedly had his teams in the playoffs. Of course going to the Super Bowl after two 8-8 seasons helps alot with that. However, the one smart thing Bud Adams has done was stay with Jeff Fisher.

I see Kubiak doing alot of what Fisher did to become a winner. The players play for him, and he is a players coach that relates well and he doesn't tolerate alot of things either. You can get in his doghouse and find yourself there for a while too.

GP
07-07-2009, 05:18 PM
:goodpost:

:goodpost:

Double Barrel
07-07-2009, 05:45 PM
I did find out that when Fisher first took over the Oilers/Titans he had five non-winning seasons (1994-1998) in a row - the last three being 8-8 seasons. Even Bud knew not to screw with the turnaround that was in progress. I'd hate to think that Bob McNair is less patient than Bud.

This is a very interesting point, because it all comes down to the owner at the end of the day.

McNair was a really patient guy waiting for the NFL to get over the pandering of L.A., so there is a case to be made about his patience. Obviously, 2-14 pushed the boundaries, which is to be expected. (Bud = not so patient, as evidenced by his high-tailing it out of town before his lease was even up on the 'dome or he even had a stadium to play in at Tenn, much less his legacy of constantly firing head coaches during the early decades of the Oilers.)

But Kubiak is a different story, because his improvement has been both tangible and intangible. I've been pondering this very subject, and barring a catastrophe in the vein of 2-14, I think he gives Kubiak 6 years to make something happen. I don't think 8-8 for 2009 gets him fired, but it'll definitely cause McNair to get some charcoal. By 2010, it'll be six full seasons, and then McNair will have given it every chance and will be forced to a decision by dwindling sales if we do not see a marked improvement by that point. JMO

eriadoc
07-07-2009, 05:53 PM
This entire thread will be pointless after this season. SB in '09!

:texflag:

Lucky
07-07-2009, 06:59 PM
...I think he gives Kubiak 6 years to make something happen. I don't think 8-8 for 2009 gets him fired, but it'll definitely cause McNair to get some charcoal. By 2010, it'll be six full seasons...
2010 will be the Texans head coach's 5th season, and last on his current contract. The question in the thread starter was what has to happen for the head coach to get an extension (after the 2009 season).

The reasoning is that few owners put their head coach in a position to be a lame duck, by coaching on the final year of a contract. Which is why some (like myself) believe that the Texans have to win (and the coach is extended) or he is terminated with 1 year left on his contract.

ObsiWan
07-07-2009, 07:24 PM
I woke up a couple of years ago and the word "great" had transferred to meaning what used to mean pretty good to good. In other words, overcoming injury and tough division to have a winning record is a good job (more than enough to keep Kubiak's job). I am not Super bowl or bust guy, but not making the playoffs can never be classified a great year..i.e. the Texans have yet to have a great year as an organization.

no argument from me on that point.

ObsiWan
07-07-2009, 07:27 PM
I wouldn't say "rarely".

You've got 5 positive changes, 1 no change, and 7 negative changes. Three of the positive changes were just getting a 1 game improvement (and then Green with 3 and Tomlin with 2). The negatives were more negative: 2 teams dropped 1 game back, 1 team dropped 2, 2 teams dropped 3, then 1 team each had 4 and 5 less wins. So, if you do make an improvement, it's probably only a game but if you make it worse, you're probably going to drop 3 from your win total.

So there's not a lot of bang for your buck firing an 8-8 coach. You've got to make sure you've got the right guy lined up to take his place if you're going to do it. Now, if he has a year of <=6 wins, go for it.

You're right. Bad choice of words there.

You're last paragraph sums up this whole discussion very neatly.

...I hope you're happy.
NOW what will we argue about??

Norg
07-07-2009, 10:50 PM
i think consistey can be a good thing look at Pittsburg

our divison


Jags -Stuck with Jack del rio

Colts- had dungy foe years

TItans - they have had fisher since the get go

awtysst
07-07-2009, 11:34 PM
i think consistey can be a good thing look at Pittsburg

our divison


Jags -Stuck with Jack del rio

Colts- had dungy foe years

TItans - they have had fisher since the get go

Not the same situation. Lets see why:

Pitt: Cowher took them to the playoffs in year 1

Colts:Dungy took them into the playoffs in year 1

Jags: Del Rio had them in the playoffs in year 3

Titans: Fisher took them in year 5. You could argue some fairly significant circumstances here.

Double Barrel
07-08-2009, 06:22 PM
2010 will be the Texans head coach's 5th season, and last on his current contract. The question in the thread starter was what has to happen for the head coach to get an extension (after the 2009 season).

The reasoning is that few owners put their head coach in a position to be a lame duck, by coaching on the final year of a contract. Which is why some (like myself) believe that the Texans have to win (and the coach is extended) or he is terminated with 1 year left on his contract.

yeah, you're right. My bad, I had a brain fart and was thinking 2005 was Kubiak's first year.

But good points about a lame duck HC. Most owners probably want to seal the deal on a long-term coach, but if that coach is still unproven and struggling after a certain period of time, owners just let go and move on.