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keyser
12-21-2008, 10:11 PM
OK, to get over the depression of our loss, I wanted to see where this left us draft position wise...

Right now, there are 14 teams that will certainly end up with better records than us, plus two more that will be in the playoffs. That means we are, at worst, drafting 16th. There are 8 teams that will certainly have worse records. So, at best, we could draft 9th. The teams that are not clearly behind or ahead are:

18. ** Arizona (8-7) (will pick higher, since in playoffs)
17. Chicago (8-6)
16. * Denver (8-7) (either they or San Diego will be in playoffs, and thus pick higher)
15. Washington (8-7)
14. New Orleans (8-7)
13. * San Diego (7-8) (see Denver)
12. Buffalo (7-8)
11. **Houston (7-8)
10. San Francisco (6-9)
9. Green Bay (5-9)

Arizona's in the playoffs, so they must pick later than us. Since Denver or San Diego must make the playoffs, at least one will draft later than us, so we can't be 17th.

If Green Bay wins tomorrow, we'll keep the 9-16 range, or if Chicago wins, then Chicago will move off the top, and Green Bay off the bottom, giving us a 10-15 range.

Ole Miss Texan
12-22-2008, 12:41 AM
I would be happy with an 8-8 record. Going into the season i thought we'd bea .500 team +/- 1 game, I just wish we would have beat oakland and lost to chicago. Anyways, picking 9-16 is my favorite place to pick besides picking 17-32. :) At least we won't overpay for a decent player and have a chance to trade down if a certain player slips for another team.

mussop
12-22-2008, 08:52 PM
After looking I believe we are in the #12 slot right now. Forecasting the remaining schedule I believe we will lose to Chicago and end up with pick 10 or 11.

LonerATO
12-22-2008, 10:44 PM
I could see the Texans trading down and trying to get an extra 3/4 or even going so far as to giving up the 1st and getting a 2nd in the following draft

keyser
12-23-2008, 12:32 AM
Well, after tonight's game, it looks like the Texans will be in the 10-15 range with their pick.

I could see the Texans trading down and trying to get an extra 3/4
I could see that happening, though it depends on who/what positions they're targeting. In some of the early lists of top prospects, it seemed like several were at positions I don't think the Texans would go after in the first.

or even going so far as to giving up the 1st and getting a 2nd in the following draft
This I don't see. I remember in the Schaub trade they made a big deal about not having to give up a 1st round pick. I think they value those first round picks quite highly, and I can't see them trading all the way out of the first, much less doing so for just a second in this year's and next year's draft.

LonerATO
12-23-2008, 03:03 AM
Well by some miracle Richard Smith isnt fired then we need to trade out of the first, because it wont matter who they draft at defense since he cant coach at all

Blake
12-23-2008, 08:01 AM
http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html

Updated: December 23, 2008

12 - Houston - (7-8) - .515

rarazz00
12-23-2008, 12:59 PM
Well by some miracle Richard Smith isnt fired then we need to trade out of the first, because it wont matter who they draft at defense since he cant coach at all

I'm hoping Wade Phillips gets fired in Dallas, so we can hire him as our DC after we fire Rchard Smith.:d:

painekiller
12-23-2008, 02:22 PM
I'm hoping Wade Phillips gets fired in Dallas, so we can hire him as our DC after we fire Rchard Smith.:d:

So your wanting to go to a 3-4, a defense that would mean dropping your entire LBing corp because they are undersized. Good plan.:d:

Ole Miss Texan
12-23-2008, 02:52 PM
I can't wait until next week when we know the front order of the draft... and then I won't be able to wait for the draft! :doot: My favorite time of the year... see what young guys we can bring in to make the team better. Then immediately following the conclusion of the draft... seeing who will be available for the following year!

Hooston Texan
12-23-2008, 03:24 PM
Here are some scenarios heading into the last week of the season.

Theoretical Range
1. Right now, nine teams (Detroit, St.Louis, KC, Cincy, Clev, Sea, Oak, Jax, GB) will have worse records than us no matter what. So that eliminates slots 1-9 for us.

2. Fifteen teams (Phi, TB, Dall, Chi, Minn, NYJ, Atl, Mia, NE, Balt, Car, Pitt, Indy, NYG and Tenn) will have better records than us. So slots 18-32 are eliminated.

3. We could end up tied with Arizona and both San Diego and Denver, but two of those three are getting playoff spots and thus cannot pick ahead of us if their record is the same as ours. So slots 16 and 17 are eliminated for us.

4. So that leaves picks 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 for us. Other teams in the mix for those picks are (counting Ariz and SD/Den) are Ariz, SD, Den, SF, Buff, NO, Wash.

5. Tiebreaker after record is opponents' winning percentage. Our opponents percentage is .515. Of the teams listed in #4 above, only SD (.517) has one above .500. So we're pretty much assured of losing the tiebreaker to everyone but San Diego.

If we beat the Bears to finish 8-8:
1. San Francisco (6-9) can't finish ahead of us, so we won't have the 10th pick.

2. Buffalo (7-8) picks behind us no matter what in all likelihood. Their opponent's winning percentage (.450) is much lower than ours. So, for practical purposes, we won't have the 11th pick.

3. If we finish 8-8, the outcome of Denver-San Diego is irrelevant to our final position. If Denver wins, they pick after us (better record) while San Diego picks before us (worse record). If San Diego wins, we'll all be 8-8, but San Diego is in the playoffs and picks after us. Denver will beat us in the tiebreaker with their low opponents percentage (.454 to our .515). So either way, one of those two picks before us and the other picks after us. That means we won't have the 12th pick.

4. That leaves Washington and New Orleans (both 8-7). If both win, then we pick #13. If only one wins, we're #14. If both lose, we're #15. (Now, Washington and/or New Orleans could land at other spots besides 13-15, but I'm only working this out for us.)

BOTTOM LINE IF WE BEAT CHICAGO: We're picking 13, 14 or 15, depending on the outcome of the 'Skins and Saints games.



If we lose to the Bears to finish 7-9.
1. We'll still lose to SF (6-9 record, opponents record of .450) in a tiebreaker, so we won't pick 10th.

2. New Orleans and Washington will pick after us no matter what; they can't finish worse than 8-8. So we won't pick 14th or 15th.

3. So we're left with 11, 12 and 13. If Buffalo wins to finish 8-8, we can't finish 13th. But, if Buffalo loses, we lose the tiebreaker to them, so we won't pick 11th.

4. If San Diego beats Denver, both will have a better record, so we can't pick 13th, meaning we pick 11 or 12 depending on if the Bills win. BUT: if San Diego loses, they would also finish 7-9 and we could win the tiebreaker against them (too close to call at this point; right now our opponents are .515 and theirs is .517). So the best we can do is 11 if (a) Buffalo wins, (b) San Diego loses and (c) our opponents' percentage comes in less than SD's.

BOTTOM LINE IF WE LOSE TO CHICAGO: We're picking 11, 12 or 13 depending on the outcome of NE-Buffalo and Den-SD.

THE BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOM LINE: Our draft slot can only be 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15. Assuming no ties, of course.

Brando
12-23-2008, 03:34 PM
Here are some scenarios heading into the last week of the season.

Theoretical Range
1. Right now, nine teams (Detroit, St.Louis, KC, Cincy, Clev, Sea, Oak, Jax, GB) will have worse records than us no matter what. So that eliminates slots 1-9 for us.

2. Fifteen teams (Phi, TB, Dall, Chi, Minn, NYJ, Atl, Mia, NE, Balt, Car, Pitt, Indy, NYG and Tenn) will have better records than us. So slots 18-32 are eliminated.

3. We could end up tied with Arizona and both San Diego and Denver, but two of those three are getting playoff spots and thus cannot pick ahead of us if their record is the same as ours. So slots 16 and 17 are eliminated for us.

4. So that leaves picks 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 for us. Other teams in the mix for those picks are (counting Ariz and SD/Den) are Ariz, SD, Den, SF, Buff, NO, Wash.

5. Tiebreaker after record is opponents' winning percentage. Our opponents percentage is .515. Of the teams listed in #4 above, only SD (.517) has one above .500. So we're pretty much assured of losing the tiebreaker to everyone but San Diego.

If we beat the Bears to finish 8-8:
1. San Francisco (6-9) can't finish ahead of us, so we won't have the 10th pick.

2. Buffalo (7-8) picks behind us no matter what in all likelihood. Their opponent's winning percentage (.450) is much lower than ours. So, for practical purposes, we won't have the 11th pick.

3. If we finish 8-8, the outcome of Denver-San Diego is irrelevant to our final position. If Denver wins, they pick after us (better record) while San Diego picks before us (worse record). If San Diego wins, we'll all be 8-8, but San Diego is in the playoffs and picks after us. Denver will beat us in the tiebreaker with their low opponents percentage (.454 to our .515). So either way, one of those two picks before us and the other picks after us. That means we won't have the 12th pick.

4. That leaves Washington and New Orleans (both 8-7). If both win, then we pick #13. If only one wins, we're #14. If both lose, we're #15. (Now, Washington and/or New Orleans could land at other spots besides 13-15, but I'm only working this out for us.)

BOTTOM LINE IF WE BEAT CHICAGO: We're picking 13, 14 or 15, depending on the outcome of the 'Skins and Saints games.



If we lose to the Bears to finish 7-9.
1. We'll still lose to SF (6-9 record, opponents record of .450) in a tiebreaker, so we won't pick 10th.

2. New Orleans and Washington will pick after us no matter what; they can't finish worse than 8-8. So we won't pick 14th or 15th.

3. So we're left with 11, 12 and 13. If Buffalo wins to finish 8-8, we can't finish 13th. But, if Buffalo loses, we lose the tiebreaker to them, so we won't pick 11th.

4. If San Diego beats Denver, both will have a better record, so we can't pick 13th, meaning we pick 11 or 12 depending on if the Bills win. BUT: if San Diego loses, they would also finish 7-9 and we could win the tiebreaker against them (too close to call at this point; right now our opponents are .515 and theirs is .517). So the best we can do is 11 if (a) Buffalo wins, (b) San Diego loses and (c) our opponents' percentage comes in less than SD's.

BOTTOM LINE IF WE LOSE TO CHICAGO: We're picking 11, 12 or 13 depending on the outcome of NE-Buffalo and Den-SD.

THE BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOM LINE: Our draft slot can only be 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15. Assuming no ties, of course.

Whew! Nice work man. Rep.:goodpost:

Ole Miss Texan
12-23-2008, 03:55 PM
Whew! Nice work man. Rep.:goodpost:

:perfect10: No joke, awesome work Hooston- Rep!

BattleRedToro
12-28-2008, 08:53 AM
This now leads to the question: who will likely be available for the Texans to draft in positions 11-15?

Ole Miss Texan
12-28-2008, 12:23 PM
This now leads to the question: who will likely be available for the Texans to draft in positions 11-15?

Here's the top of the draft, some underclassmen may not declare (shuffle the players around how you like but of these, a few should be available to us), Bolded are those that are highly likely to be gone, they're in order by position, not ranking:

1. Matthew Stafford - QB - Georgia
2. Michael Oher - OT - Ole Miss
3. Andre Smith - OT - Alablama
4. Eugene Monroe - OT - Virginia
5. Jason Smith - OT - Baylor
6. Duke Robinson - OG - Oklahoma
7. Michael Crabtree - WR - Texas Tech
8. Chris Wells - RB - Ohio St.
9. Knowshon Moreno - RB - Georgia
10. Brian Orakpo - DE - Texas
11. Michael Johnson - DE - Georgia Tech
12. Greg Hardy - DE - Ole Miss
13. BJ Raji - NT - Boston College
14. Terrance Cody - NT - Alabama
15. Peria Jerry - UT - Ole Miss
16. Everette Brown - DE/OLB - Florida St.
17. George Selvie - DE/OLB - South Florida
18. Aaron Curry - OLB - Wake Forest
19. Rey Maualuga - MLB - Southern Cal.
20. James Laurinaitis - MLB - Ohio St.
21. Clint Sintim - OLB - Virginia
22. Brian Cushing - OLB - Southern Cal.
23. Malcolm Jenkins - CB - Ohio St.
24. Vontae Davis - CB - Syracuse
25. Taylor Mays - S - Southern Cal.
26. William Moore - S - Missouri

threetoedpete
12-28-2008, 01:07 PM
I could see the Texans trading down and trying to get an extra 3/4 or even going so far as to giving up the 1st and getting a 2nd in the following draft

It's in the paper this morning. Look and see how many veterans we have that are over the six year mark and are starting for us today. Pitts on offense. Bently for Diles, Greenwood for Adibi, Nick Fergeson. & Nading for Weaver.

So, you're looking to replace four guys with how many picks over two years ?

I'm with you on the general theme of collecting picks to dominate a draft. The more ammo in your back pocket the more likely you don't have to settle for BPA and bang a glaring hole.

Look they are close enough to move up and go get a piece or two. In the beerlover camp and one of the Elite OTs falls to you, Gibbs loves the guy, I'm ok with that. New guy, Winston, Myers, or one of the five elite centers, Breisel, Brown. Great o-line can hide a lot of warts on offense.

But know this going in, you're not going to out score Manning and the colts in most games. And if you don't have a front line defense...you're going to get exposed in the play offs.

They have to move the red zone offense off the 42% touchdowns mark. Or...they have to get more athletic in the back seven on defense. To me, it screams Athletic side line to sideline LB or elite first step guy. One whom when you send him up the field he'll get there and make a play behind the line of scrimmage.

If fourteen teams are foolish enough to leave Curry on the board for you, you make the pick. If not, you take the DE with a first step you like.

If the CB falls to you.....how many guys at CB are you going to pay day one money ? The big question there is how much will Robinson sign for ? It's not his fault he got hurt. But it's not Bob McNairs fault either.

Safety...I'll believe that sheet when I see it. Safety doesn't help with the touch downs, can't get to the QB unless you blitz him.

LonerATO
12-28-2008, 01:57 PM
It's in the paper this morning. Look and see how many veterans we have that are over the six year mark and are starting for us today. Pitts on offense. Bently for Diles, Greenwood for Adibi, Nick Fergeson. & Nading for Weaver.

So, you're looking to replace four guys with how many picks over two years ?

I'm with you on the general theme of collecting picks to dominate a draft. The more ammo in your back pocket the more likely you don't have to settle for BPA and bang a glaring hole.

Look they are close enough to move up and go get a piece or two. In the beerlover camp and one of the Elite OTs falls to you, Gibbs loves the guy, I'm ok with that. New guy, Winston, Myers, or one of the five elite centers, Breisel, Brown. Great o-line can hide a lot of warts on offense.

But know this going in, you're not going to out score Manning and the colts in most games. And if you don't have a front line defense...you're going to get exposed in the play offs.

They have to move the red zone offense off the 42% touchdowns mark. Or...they have to get more athletic in the back seven on defense. To me, it screams Athletic side line to sideline LB or elite first step guy. One whom when you send him up the field he'll get there and make a play behind the line of scrimmage.

If fourteen teams are foolish enough to leave Curry on the board for you, you make the pick. If not, you take the DE with a first step you like.

If the CB falls to you.....how many guys at CB are you going to pay day one money ? The big question there is how much will Robinson sign for ? It's not his fault he got hurt. But it's not Bob McNairs fault either.

Safety...I'll believe that sheet when I see it. Safety doesn't help with the touch downs, can't get to the QB unless you blitz him.

Your right there is nothing wrong with taking a good player that drops to the Texans spot. Like I said no faith in Richard Smith makes any D pick seem like a waste to me if he is still here next year. I just dont want to see another crappy FA coming here and getting good money again

edo783
12-28-2008, 04:24 PM
If we got Orakpo to go with Okham and Oqyea (ya I spelled them all wrong) would we then become the Okies?

Spled
12-28-2008, 04:27 PM
I think we'l go around 14. It should be a deep draft so someone tasty will drop to us.

CharloTex
12-28-2008, 05:10 PM
We are at this minute in the 14 slot. If Arizona loses (losing by 7 in the 2nd), we will get bumped back one slot. If Washington loses (winning by 3 in the 2nd), we also get bumped one slot back. So that's 15th or 16th with either/both losses. Then we wait for the afternoon games to finish and I'll tell you what if any the nite game result will have on our position, possibily pushing us to the 17th slot at worst.

Congratulations Texans Nation on the win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jackie Chiles
12-28-2008, 05:18 PM
We are at this minute in the 14 slot. If Arizona loses (losing by 7 in the 2nd), we will get bumped back one slot. If Washington loses (winning by 3 in the 2nd), we also get bumped one slot back. So that's 15th or 16th with either/both losses. Then we wait for the afternoon games to finish and I'll tell you what if any the nite game result will have on our position, possibily pushing us to the 17th slot at worst.

Congratulations Texans Nation on the win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Arizona cannot draft before us since they are a playoff team no matter what happens to them today.

CharloTex
12-28-2008, 05:30 PM
Arizona cannot draft before us since they are a playoff team no matter what happens to them today.

I forgot about that. Thanks for the good news.

Based on that thinking, if San Diego wins, they cannot push us back 1 slot as they will win the AFC West and by virtue of being a playoff team, cannot pick in front of us. Therefore, we will pick either 14th or, if Washington loses, 15th. Please verify.

nunusguy
12-28-2008, 05:39 PM
Arizona cannot draft before us since they are a playoff team no matter what happens to them today.

OK, so a division chamionship trumps W-L record when determining Draft order. Didn't know that, thanks for the heads-up JC.

CharloTex
12-28-2008, 07:18 PM
Since Washington lost, I have us picking 15th.

Thorn
12-28-2008, 09:40 PM
no matter what happens with Denver or San Diago, the worst we can draft is 15, which is three positions better than we got last year. There will be four teams at 8-8, taking up positions 12, 13, 14, and 15 in the draft. I have no idea of how the NFL determines draft postion however between teams with the same record.

Jackie Chiles
12-28-2008, 09:55 PM
no matter what happens with Denver or San Diago, the worst we can draft is 15, which is three positions better than we got last year. There will be four teams at 8-8, taking up positions 12, 13, 14, and 15 in the draft. I have no idea of how the NFL determines draft postion however between teams with the same record.

Its opponent Strength of Schedule and ours is pretty solid so I imagine we will pick last out of all the 8-8 teams. Maybe 2nd to last but I doubt it. We will, however, slowly move up a slot I believe in each round following round 1. So we should pick 14th in round two and 13th in round 3 all the way up until we are the first 8-8 team to pick in a round. After that round we will drop back to picking last in the following round and repeat the process.

ChampionTexan
12-28-2008, 10:12 PM
Arizona cannot draft before us since they are a playoff team no matter what happens to them today.

Not that it matters anymore, but have they changed the rules on this since last year?

Last year, the Redskins finished 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wildcard, and got the 21st pick, (which they subsequently traded to Atlanta who took Sam Baker), while the Browns finished 10-6, missed the playoffs, and got the 22nd pick (which had already been traded to Dallas for the Brady Quinn pick in '07, and resulted in Dallas getting Felix Jones).

Again, I realize that Arizona won, so it doesn't matter anyway, I'm just not sure what the rule is. Does the playoff/non playoff thing only kick in if it's a tie?

keyser
12-28-2008, 10:24 PM
Not that it matters anymore, but have they changed the rules on this since last year?

Last year, the Redskins finished 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wildcard, and got the 21st pick, (which they subsequently traded to Atlanta who took Sam Baker), while the Browns finished 10-6, missed the playoffs, and got the 22nd pick (which had already been traded to Dallas for the Brady Quinn pick in '07, and resulted in Dallas getting Felix Jones).

Again, I realize that Arizona won, so it doesn't matter anyway, I'm just not sure what the rule is. Does the playoff/non playoff thing only kick in if it's a tie?

From that ultrareliable source, Wikipedia, yes, the playoff thing only comes into play if it's a tie. First are the placement of the Super Bowl winner/loser. Second is grouping by record. Third, to break ties among those with the same record: A) Playoff teams pick after non-playoff teams B) Playoff teams are ordered based on finish in the playoffs C) remaining ties (including those non-playoff making) are decided based on strength of schedule.
When even that is a tie, it comes down to a coin flip. If I remember correctly, there were a couple of teams in the top 10 who had order decided by a coin flip last year.

threetoedpete
12-28-2008, 10:38 PM
The next biggie will be the Juniors announcing their attentions after the bowls.

Andrew6
12-29-2008, 05:31 AM
Where are we going to be in this next years upcoming draft?

mattieuk
12-29-2008, 06:32 AM
I think its 15th, not 100% on that though.

Thorn
12-29-2008, 07:43 AM
15th is the worst we can draft. Depending on the NFL rules, we might draft at 14 or 13, but Washington, New Orleans, Denver and Houston all are 8-8 and will draft in the 12th through 15th slot. San Diago which is also 8-8 is in the playoffs, so that doesn't count for the rest of us 8-8 teams.

Lucky
12-29-2008, 07:46 AM
15th is the worst we can draft.
The Texans have the #15 draft slot (http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html).

Thorn
12-29-2008, 07:48 AM
The Texans have the #15 draft slot (http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html).

15th is what several sites are giving us, but until I see it on an official NFL site, I'll wait. I'd be very suprised if it isn't 15 or 14 though.

rarazz00
12-29-2008, 09:37 AM
So your wanting to go to a 3-4, a defense that would mean dropping your entire LBing corp because they are undersized. Good plan.:d:

Wade Phillips has run the 4-3 before...its not rocket science to him:d

Thorn
12-29-2008, 09:48 AM
Its opponent Strength of Schedule and ours is pretty solid so I imagine we will pick last out of all the 8-8 teams. Maybe 2nd to last but I doubt it. We will, however, slowly move up a slot I believe in each round following round 1. So we should pick 14th in round two and 13th in round 3 all the way up until we are the first 8-8 team to pick in a round. After that round we will drop back to picking last in the following round and repeat the process.


I was wondering how that worked. thanks.

Ole Miss Texan
12-29-2008, 10:22 AM
The Texans have the #15 draft slot (http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html).

I'm not sure that draft order is correct. Maybe I'm getting confused by "P- indicates position could change as a result of playoffs" but they have 17 teams in this category where only 12 actually make the playoffs. San Diego should be in the playoffs thus not picking 16th.

But the top of the draft looks correct up through Houston.

Texans Pride
12-29-2008, 10:25 AM
If I am reading this chart correctly, then we will have the 15th pick in the draft. Is that correct?

http://www.nfl.com/standings?category=league

Conf Div W L T Pct PF PA Net Pts TD Home Road Div Pct Conf Pct Non-Conf Streak Last 5
*- Tennessee Titans AFC ACS 13 3 0 .813 375 234 141 41 7-1 6-2 4-2 .667 9-3 .750 4-0 1L 3-2
z- Carolina Panthers NFC NCS 12 4 0 .750 414 329 85 47 8-0 4-4 4-2 .667 8-4 .667 4-0 1W 4-1
y- Indianapolis Colts AFC ACS 12 4 0 .750 377 298 79 45 6-2 6-2 4-2 .667 10-2 .833 2-2 9W 5-0
*- New York Giants NFC NCE 12 4 0 .750 427 294 133 45 7-1 5-3 4-2 .667 9-3 .750 3-1 1L 2-3
z- Pittsburgh Steelers AFC ACN 12 4 0 .750 347 223 124 38 6-2 6-2 6-0 1.000 10-2 .833 2-2 1W 4-1
y- Atlanta Falcons NFC NCS 11 5 0 .688 391 325 66 43 7-1 4-4 3-3 .500 8-4 .667 3-1 3W 4-1
y- Baltimore Ravens AFC ACN 11 5 0 .688 385 244 141 42 6-2 5-3 4-2 .667 8-4 .667 3-1 2W 4-1
z- Miami Dolphins AFC ACE 11 5 0 .688 345 317 28 40 5-3 6-2 4-2 .667 8-4 .667 3-1 5W 5-0
New England Patriots AFC ACE 11 5 0 .688 410 309 101 43 5-3 6-2 4-2 .667 7-5 .583 4-0 4W 4-1
z- Minnesota Vikings NFC NCN 10 6 0 .625 379 333 46 41 6-2 4-4 4-2 .667 8-4 .667 2-2 1W 4-1
y- Philadelphia Eagles NFC NCE 9 6 1 .594 416 289 127 45 6-2 3-4-1 2-4 .333 7-5 .583 2-1-1 1W 4-1
z- Arizona Cardinals NFC NCW 9 7 0 .563 427 426 1 51 6-2 3-5 6-0 1.000 7-5 .583 2-2 1W 2-3
Chicago Bears NFC NCN 9 7 0 .563 375 350 25 42 6-2 3-5 4-2 .667 7-5 .583 2-2 1L 3-2
Dallas Cowboys NFC NCE 9 7 0 .563 362 365 -3 43 6-2 3-5 3-3 .500 7-5 .583 2-2 2L 2-3
New York Jets AFC ACE 9 7 0 .563 405 356 49 48 5-3 4-4 4-2 .667 7-5 .583 2-2 2L 1-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC NCS 9 7 0 .563 361 323 38 38 6-2 3-5 3-3 .500 8-4 .667 1-3 4L 1-4
Denver Broncos AFC ACW 8 8 0 .500 370 448 -78 42 4-4 4-4 3-3 .500 5-7 .417 3-1 3L 2-3
Houston Texans AFC ACS 8 8 0 .500 366 394 -28 40 6-2 2-6 2-4 .333 5-7 .417 3-1 1W 4-1
New Orleans Saints NFC NCS 8 8 0 .500 463 393 70 57 6-2 2-6 2-4 .333 5-7 .417 3-1 1L 2-3
z- San Diego Chargers AFC ACW 8 8 0 .500 439 347 92 51 5-3 3-5 5-1 .833 7-5 .583 1-3 4W 4-1
Washington Redskins NFC NCE 8 8 0 .500 265 296 -31 27 4-4 4-4 3-3 .500 7-5 .583 1-3 1L 1-4
Buffalo Bills AFC ACE 7 9 0 .438 336 342 -6 35 3-5 4-4 0-6 .000 5-7 .417 2-2 1L 1-4
San Francisco 49ers NFC NCW 7 9 0 .438 339 381 -42 36 4-4 3-5 3-3 .500 5-7 .417 2-2 2W 4-1
Green Bay Packers NFC NCN 6 10 0 .375 419 380 39 48 4-4 2-6 4-2 .667 5-7 .417 1-3 1W 1-4
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC ACS 5 11 0 .313 302 367 -65 35 2-6 3-5 2-4 .333 3-9 .250 2-2 2L 1-4
Oakland Raiders AFC ACW 5 11 0 .313 263 388 -125 27 2-6 3-5 2-4 .333 4-8 .333 1-3 2W 2-3
Cincinnati Bengals AFC ACN 4 11 1 .281 204 364 -160 20 3-4-1 1-7 1-5 .167 3-9 .250 1-2-1 3W 3-2
Cleveland Browns AFC ACN 4 12 0 .250 232 350 -118 20 1-7 3-5 1-5 .167 3-9 .250 1-3 6L 0-5
Seattle Seahawks NFC NCW 4 12 0 .250 294 392 -98 32 2-6 2-6 3-3 .500 3-9 .250 1-3 1L 2-3
Kansas City Chiefs AFC ACW 2 14 0 .125 291 440 -149 35 1-7 1-7 2-4 .333 2-10 .167 0-4 4L 1-4
St. Louis Rams NFC NCW 2 14 0 .125 232 465 -233 20 1-7 1-7 0-6 .000 2-10 .167 0-4 10L 0-5
Detroit Lions NFC NCN 0 16 0 .000 268 517 -249 29 0-8 0-8 0-6 .000 0-12 .000 0-4 16L 0-5

x - Clinched playoff
y - Clinched Wild Card
z - Clinched Division
* - Clinched Division and Homefield Advantage

Kaiser Toro
12-29-2008, 10:26 AM
We do based on the SOS. Merging and moving this thread to the NCAA/Draft forum.

Texans Pride
12-29-2008, 10:26 AM
ok thanks, for some reason the thread appeared twice, can you delete one please?

Ole Miss Texan
12-29-2008, 10:48 AM
According to that chart, it looks as though we would have the 14th pick in the draft. San Diego is in the playoffs so they will pick after us. Except that Denver who is also 8-8 has a weaker SOS (I think) so they would jump us and yes... we would pick 15th.

Hooston Texan
12-29-2008, 01:32 PM
I'm not sure that draft order is correct. Maybe I'm getting confused by "P- indicates position could change as a result of playoffs" but they have 17 teams in this category where only 12 actually make the playoffs. San Diego should be in the playoffs thus not picking 16th.

But the top of the draft looks correct up through Houston.

The playoffs rejigger the draft order because the Super Bowl participants get the 31st and 32nd picks no matter what. So if 8-8 San Diego meets 9-7 Arizona in the Super Bowl, every team currently behind them (including non-playoff teams like the 11-5 Patriots) slides up two spots. So the draft order is set only up to the point of the playoff team with the worst record.

If San Diego does not make the Super Bowl, then they will have the 16th pick. I don't think playoff record affects pick seeding aside from the Super Bowl rule.

Thorn
12-29-2008, 01:53 PM
latest from the chronicle here: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/6185429.html

Ole Miss Texan
12-29-2008, 03:37 PM
The playoffs rejigger the draft order because the Super Bowl participants get the 31st and 32nd picks no matter what. So if 8-8 San Diego meets 9-7 Arizona in the Super Bowl, every team currently behind them (including non-playoff teams like the 11-5 Patriots) slides up two spots. So the draft order is set only up to the point of the playoff team with the worst record.

If San Diego does not make the Super Bowl, then they will have the 16th pick. I don't think playoff record affects pick seeding aside from the Super Bowl rule.

I always thought: Teams that make the playoffs automatically pick after teams that don't make the playoffs, regardless of record. The last 12 spots are reserved for playoff teams. San Diego (in playoffs) cannot select before New England, Dallas (given to Detroit), Chicago, etc. (missed playoffs) even though they have a worse record.

painekiller
12-29-2008, 06:00 PM
I always thought: Teams that make the playoffs automatically pick after teams that don't make the playoffs, regardless of record. The last 12 spots are reserved for playoff teams. San Diego (in playoffs) cannot select before New England, Dallas (given to Detroit), Chicago, etc. (missed playoffs) even though they have a worse record.

You are correct, sir.

Ole Miss Texan
12-30-2008, 05:09 PM
So we've got a lot of positions we could address during FA and the Draft. DT, DE, OLB, S, CB, RB, C, OG...

There's no telling who we're going to get where but assuming we've addressed a few of these positions in FA like we did last year- maybe just get decent stop gap fillers like Bentley's range without breaking the bank... but assuming we do, how would y'all fell about trading back up into the late first or early 2nd round to fill a need with a guy that's slipping but won't last to our 2nd round pick? I normally am against trading away draft picks but just curious.

For example:
If we address a RB to pair with slaton, maybe a decent LB and some OL depth what if we-
1st round: Draft BJ Raji, NT from CB
*trade up late 1st* Greg Hardy, DE from Ole Miss

or take Taylor Mays with our first... pick your poison. If I read the draft chart correctly, it would probably require us giving up our 2nd and 3rd round picks. Don't know if it's worth doing that considering we could probably still find starters or great depth in those rounds. It'd have to be for a prospect that the really like, have really rated highly.

What would be a combination of 2 players that we could realistically get if we made a trade? I will say, I think there's a greater chance we trade down in the first than to trade back up into it. Just hypothetically though.

I'd like to see some sort of combination of BJ Raji, Taylor Mays, Greg Hardy or maybe just stay put and we might find a top C in the 2nd round.

Insideop
12-30-2008, 06:03 PM
So we've got a lot of positions we could address during FA and the Draft. DT, DE, OLB, S, CB, RB, C, OG...

There's no telling who we're going to get where but assuming we've addressed a few of these positions in FA like we did last year- maybe just get decent stop gap fillers like Bentley's range without breaking the bank... but assuming we do, how would y'all fell about trading back up into the late first or early 2nd round to fill a need with a guy that's slipping but won't last to our 2nd round pick? I normally am against trading away draft picks but just curious.

For example:
If we address a RB to pair with slaton, maybe a decent LB and some OL depth what if we-
1st round: Draft BJ Raji, NT from CB
*trade up late 1st* Greg Hardy, DE from Ole Miss

or take Taylor Mays with our first... pick your poison. If I read the draft chart correctly, it would probably require us giving up our 2nd and 3rd round picks. Don't know if it's worth doing that considering we could probably still find starters or great depth in those rounds. It'd have to be for a prospect that the really like, have really rated highly.

What would be a combination of 2 players that we could realistically get if we made a trade? I will say, I think there's a greater chance we trade down in the first than to trade back up into it. Just hypothetically though.

I'd like to see some sort of combination of BJ Raji, Taylor Mays, Greg Hardy or maybe just stay put and we might find a top C in the 2nd round.

I don't like trading up myself. You seem to lose more than you gain. You can win like Baltimore did trading up to get Flacco (sp?) last year, but it seems more of them fail than succeed. I just think it would be too risky. Maybe I just can't get away from the Babin :gun: deal.

Now trading down, that's another story!

rollinstone18
12-30-2008, 06:06 PM
If we get Greg Hardy or Everette Brown I'll be happy.

1. Hardy/Brown DE
2. Rashad Johnson FS
3. Ron Brace NT

phantom17
12-30-2008, 09:06 PM
I AGREE about trading down- not UP scenario! Hell, I still have that bad taste in my mouth wit that Bab's fiasco! I still remember thinkin' WAT DUH HELL!:bat:

Hooston Texan
12-31-2008, 09:54 AM
I always thought: Teams that make the playoffs automatically pick after teams that don't make the playoffs, regardless of record. The last 12 spots are reserved for playoff teams. San Diego (in playoffs) cannot select before New England, Dallas (given to Detroit), Chicago, etc. (missed playoffs) even though they have a worse record.

That is not correct. Playoff qualification does not trump regular season record unless the playoff team in question makes the Super Bowl. Playoffs are simply the first tiebreaker among teams with the same record. Opponents' winning percentage is the second tiebreaker. So, if 8-8 San Diego does not make the Super Bowl, they draft in the #16 slot ahead of New England, Chicago, the Jets, etc.

Look at last year's draft order. Cleveland finished 10-6 but did not make the playoffs--they got the #22 pick (which they had dealt to Dallas in the Brady Quinn deal). Washington and Tampa did make the playoffs but both finished 9-7, and they drafted at #21 and #20, respectively.

Draft order is determined in the following manner:
1. The Super Bowl champ picks #32
2. The Super Bowl loser picks #31
3. The remaining 30 teams pick in inverse order of their final record.
4. In case of ties between the remaining 30 teams, teams that make the playoffs pick behind teams that did not.
5. In case of ties after #4, opponents' winning percentage is used to break ties. I am not sure what is done if two teams with the same record and playoff status also have the same opponents' winning percentage.

Ole Miss Texan
12-31-2008, 10:54 AM
Look at last year's draft order. Cleveland finished 10-6 but did not make the playoffs--they got the #22 pick (which they had dealt to Dallas in the Brady Quinn deal). Washington and Tampa did make the playoffs but both finished 9-7, and they drafted at #21 and #20, respectively.


Huh, well how bout that.

Hooston Texan
12-31-2008, 11:37 AM
I don't like trading up myself. You seem to lose more than you gain. You can win like Baltimore did trading up to get Flacco (sp?) last year, but it seems more of them fail than succeed. I just think it would be too risky. Maybe I just can't get away from the Babin :gun: deal.

Now trading down, that's another story!

Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

7--Sedrick Ellis (NO). I think he started but admit to not knowing much about how he did. But the Saints were absolutely desperate for a DT, so they had to be aggressive.
8--Derrick Harvey (Jax). If you're going to trade up, you better make sure you can sign the guy. Almost a total washout this year, but, as we all know, you can't judge a DE solely on his first season.
15--Brandon Albert (KC). A much-praised rookie starter. I doubt we'd have traded down if he lasted to 18.
18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).
19--Jeff Otah (Car). Really solidified the Carolina OL and fit their scheme like a glove. I hate trading away a future first pick, but Carolina's strong season (thanks in some part to Otah) means the pick they gave up isn't going to be very high.
21--Sam Baker (Atl). Played well but got hurt. Still, Atlanta's OL was a revelation, and he was a part of it.
25--Mike Jenkins (Dall). Did not have much impact and played some pitiful matador defense at times. A guy taken in the fifth round--Orlando Scandrick (himself a trade-up target) seems to have outplayed him.
30--Dustin Keller (NYJ). Already being called one of the best young TEs around.
So, of the 8 trade-up targets in last year's draft, five have been unqualified successes thus far. I don't know about Ellis. Harvey and Jenkins are the only ones who did not have good rookie campaigns.

beerlover
12-31-2008, 12:34 PM
Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

7--Sedrick Ellis (NO). I think he started but admit to not knowing much about how he did. But the Saints were absolutely desperate for a DT, so they had to be aggressive.
8--Derrick Harvey (Jax). If you're going to trade up, you better make sure you can sign the guy. Almost a total washout this year, but, as we all know, you can't judge a DE solely on his first season.
15--Brandon Albert (KC). A much-praised rookie starter. I doubt we'd have traded down if he lasted to 18.
18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).
19--Jeff Otah (Car). Really solidified the Carolina OL and fit their scheme like a glove. I hate trading away a future first pick, but Carolina's strong season (thanks in some part to Otah) means the pick they gave up isn't going to be very high.
21--Sam Baker (Atl). Played well but got hurt. Still, Atlanta's OL was a revelation, and he was a part of it.
25--Mike Jenkins (Dall). Did not have much impact and played some pitiful matador defense at times. A guy taken in the fifth round--Orlando Scandrick (himself a trade-up target) seems to have outplayed him.
30--Dustin Keller (NYJ). Already being called one of the best young TEs around.
So, of the 8 trade-up targets in last year's draft, five have been unqualified successes thus far. I don't know about Ellis. Harvey and Jenkins are the only ones who did not have good rookie campaigns.

Sedric Ellis was dominant before he got hurt. really looked like early DROY favorite, very big strong quick nose tackle.

Derrick Harvey came on late after slow start (contract holdout cost not just his team but Derrick valueable conditioning/rep time) still an elite pass rushing RDE. expect a similar run this draft once again on tackles & pass rushers, always valued properties. Imagine if Harvey had stayed in school for his senior season he would probably be rated the #1 DE prospect in the 09 draft. (begs the question, if you where the Texans would you consider trading the 15th pick for Jacksonville DE Derrick Harvey)?


Bought into the Brandon Albert Hype, never thought he was worth that high of pick, not close to Clady who went #12 to Denver. would the Texans have passed on him @ #18 I don't really know? kinda like how it turned out better.

Flacco was a steal. where would the Ravens be despite that defense without a QB, example of win win trade for both teams.

Jeff Otah another great pick, loved him after Clady did have some injury issues missing some games but future looks bright especially that Carolina running attack opening holes for Williams & Stewart.

Sam Baker really surprised me, thought they burned some extra picks to move up & reach for Sam this early, why not wait until scheduled pick? guess they saw the run on tackles & got nervous. anyway he turned out pretty good, since they had extra picks (thanks Houston) it was a decent move.

Jenkins looked really good to me @ times, great recovery speed & package of ball skills. still one of the knocks on him, durability was an issue. his future should be secure as he adjusts the physical nature of the NFL.

Keller is pretty sweet, excellent hands with ability to run after the catch or take reception over middle in traffic, late season struggles seem to have been more on Farves loss or arm strength/accuracy as he battled some kind of shoulder ailment. expect him to be an elite TE for the forseeable future.

Ole Miss Texan
12-31-2008, 01:04 PM
Imagine if Harvey had stayed in school for his senior season he would probably be rated the #1 DE prospect in the 09 draft. (begs the question, if you where the Texans would you consider trading the 15th pick for Jacksonville DE Derrick Harvey)?


:drool: We wouldn't find a better prospect on our board.

ObsiWan
12-31-2008, 09:57 PM
I AGREE about trading down- not UP scenario! Hell, I still have that bad taste in my mouth wit that Bab's fiasco! I still remember thinkin' WAT DUH HELL!:bat:

agreed.
trading down got us Slaton...

OBTW, anyone still pissed that we passed on Mendenhall and got that extra pick?

ObsiWan
12-31-2008, 10:00 PM
Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).


You forgot we picked up Dominique Barber with the 6th rounder they threw in.
Starting LT + Leading rookie RB + solid S/T guy = Playoff team QB
yep, textbook win-win move.

HJam72
12-31-2008, 10:02 PM
That is not correct. Playoff qualification does not trump regular season record unless the playoff team in question makes the Super Bowl. Playoffs are simply the first tiebreaker among teams with the same record. Opponents' winning percentage is the second tiebreaker. So, if 8-8 San Diego does not make the Super Bowl, they draft in the #16 slot ahead of New England, Chicago, the Jets, etc.

Look at last year's draft order. Cleveland finished 10-6 but did not make the playoffs--they got the #22 pick (which they had dealt to Dallas in the Brady Quinn deal). Washington and Tampa did make the playoffs but both finished 9-7, and they drafted at #21 and #20, respectively.

Draft order is determined in the following manner:
1. The Super Bowl champ picks #32
2. The Super Bowl loser picks #31
3. The remaining 30 teams pick in inverse order of their final record.
4. In case of ties between the remaining 30 teams, teams that make the playoffs pick behind teams that did not.
5. In case of ties after #4, opponents' winning percentage is used to break ties. I am not sure what is done if two teams with the same record and playoff status also have the same opponents' winning percentage.

Indian leg wrestling. :)

Insideop
12-31-2008, 11:15 PM
Well, let's look at the guys that teams traded up for in last year's first round.

7--Sedrick Ellis (NO). I think he started but admit to not knowing much about how he did. But the Saints were absolutely desperate for a DT, so they had to be aggressive.
8--Derrick Harvey (Jax). If you're going to trade up, you better make sure you can sign the guy. Almost a total washout this year, but, as we all know, you can't judge a DE solely on his first season.
15--Brandon Albert (KC). A much-praised rookie starter. I doubt we'd have traded down if he lasted to 18.
18--Flacco. Pretty darned good early return, I'd say. The epitome of a win-win trade (Flacco for Brown and Slaton).
19--Jeff Otah (Car). Really solidified the Carolina OL and fit their scheme like a glove. I hate trading away a future first pick, but Carolina's strong season (thanks in some part to Otah) means the pick they gave up isn't going to be very high.
21--Sam Baker (Atl). Played well but got hurt. Still, Atlanta's OL was a revelation, and he was a part of it.
25--Mike Jenkins (Dall). Did not have much impact and played some pitiful matador defense at times. A guy taken in the fifth round--Orlando Scandrick (himself a trade-up target) seems to have outplayed him.
30--Dustin Keller (NYJ). Already being called one of the best young TEs around.
So, of the 8 trade-up targets in last year's draft, five have been unqualified successes thus far. I don't know about Ellis. Harvey and Jenkins are the only ones who did not have good rookie campaigns.

Not sure I agree with your assessment of 5 unqualified successes this year. I'll give you 3 (Flacco, Keller, Otah). Maybe Albert is good too, I don't know. But it's hard to say he's a success when he's stuck on a crappy team and you don't know if it was worth trading up when they could have traded down, got more picks and got a LT that played just as well. Jury is still out on the others IMO.

And, even though you have some good points, I still would much rather trade down. The only exceptions to that would be if we were loaded at most positions and needed one more piece to get us "over the hump' so to speak, like Baltimore needing a top QB. Although, drafting a QB can be quite a gamble. The other exception would be if we were stock piled with a lot of draft choices and wanted to move up for a specific player. A team like us, with plenty of positions to fill and a minimum of draft picks, I would have to say no to trading up. JMHO!

Hooston Texan
01-12-2009, 12:10 PM
I didn't see another, more recent thread on draft order, so I decided to resurrect this one. With San Diego losing yesterday, all of the Texans picks are now set.

We don't simply get the 15th pick in each round. Teams with the same record rotate picks across the rounds. For example, SF and Buffalo each finished 7-9 and pick 10th and 11th. SF won the tiebreaker, so they get the 10th pick in the first round. Buffalo then gets the 10th pick in the second round, SF gets it in the third round, Buffalo in the fourth, etc. In case of ties between 3 or more teams, each team moves up one spot in the next round with the team having the highest pick the previous round getting the lowest pick in the next one.

We are in a five-way tie at 8-8 (at picks 12-16), but one of the teams we are tied with is San Diego. Had the Chargers gone to the Super Bowl, their draft spot, by rule, would be 31 or 32. But since they lost yesterday, they are back in the group at 8-8. Because they are the only playoff team in the 8-8 group, they get the lowest first round pick (16) by rule.

Thus, in the second round, we will have the 14th pick. In the third round, we pick 13th. In the fourth round, we pick 12th. In the fifth round, we pick 16th; in the sixth we pick 15th and in the seventh we pick 14th. Now, we trade-chart junkies can't yet definitively assign point values for our picks in rounds 4 and beyond because compensatory picks have not yet been assigned. But we know now that we own the #15, #46 and #77 picks in the draft.

Hooston Texan
01-12-2009, 12:28 PM
And another thing I forgot: the draft order is coming more clear for the picks behind us with San Diego now locked in at 16.

Right now, the first round looks like this assuming gbn's calculation of opponents' winning percentage is correct (spots in normal type are set. Bold/italics indicates position is yet to be determined):

1: Detroit (0-16)
2: St. Louis (2-14)
3: Kansas City
4: Seattle (4-12)
5: Cleveland
6: Cincinnati (4-11-1)
7: Oakland (5-11)
8: Jacksonville
9: Green Bay (6-10)
10: San Francisco (7-9)
11: Buffalo
12: Denver (8-8)
13: Washington
14: New Orleans
15: Houston
16: San Diego
17: New York Jets (9-7)
18: Chicago
19: Tampa
20: Dallas (traded first rounder to Detroit for Roy Williams. :neener:)
21: Loser of Philly (9-6-1) and Arizona (9-7). Winner of that game picks either 31 or 32.
22: Minnesota (10-6)
23: New England (11-5)
24: Atlanta
25: Miami
26, 27, 28, 29 are yet to be determined.
30: Tennessee (13-3)
31: Super Bowl loser
32: Super Bowl champ

Other than picks 21 (Philly-AZ loser) and the Super Bowl picks, the other spots will be determined by the AFC title game.

If Pittsburgh wins, then 26-29 is:
26: Baltimore (11-5 but higher opponent percentage than Atlanta and Miami)
27: Carolina (12-4)
28: Indy (12-4)
29: N.Y.Giants (12-4)

If Baltimore wins, then 26-29 is:
26: Carolina
27: Indy
28: N.Y.Giants
29: Pittsburgh