PDA

View Full Version : A look at the Texans defensive numbers...


Texans_Chick
12-18-2008, 08:21 AM
I hate to interrupt the latest Texans have turned the corner talk but I figured you would be interested in this, even if you don't particularly like it:

Is the Texans defensive improvement real or fools gold? (http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2008/12/is_the_texans_defensive_improv.html)

It just seems to me I've seen this before. Like in 2006. You can watch Richard Smith talk about this on video between the 2006 and 2007 season. The Texans had an awful awful start but as he put it, they finished strong.

Not really. They finished still below average, and by the Football Outsider play by play stats, they finished that season rated 31st in the league.

I am not against conventional wisdom. I just like conventional wisdom when it is support by data. Stats aren't everything, but they are just a way to look at things relative to the rest of the league instead of relative to some really really poor performances.

michaelm
12-18-2008, 08:39 AM
I hate to interrupt the latest Texans have turned the corner talk but I figured you would be interested in this, even if you don't particularly like it:

Is the Texans defensive improvement real or fools gold? (http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2008/12/is_the_texans_defensive_improv.html)

It just seems to me I've seen this before. Like in 2006. You can watch Richard Smith talk about this on video between the 2006 and 2007 season. The Texans had an awful awful start but as he put it, they finished strong.

Not really. They finished still below average, and by the Football Outsider play by play stats, they finished that season rated 31st in the league.

I am not against conventional wisdom. I just like conventional wisdom when it is support by data. Stats aren't everything, but they are just a way to look at things relative to the rest of the league instead of relative to some really really poor performances.

Well, Merry Christmas to you too, scrooge! :)

Thorn
12-18-2008, 08:49 AM
Well, Merry Christmas to you too, scrooge! :)


Now that's funny! LOL

But I'm gonna have to agree with Texans_Chick on this.

Mailman
12-18-2008, 08:51 AM
TC,

I think you invest too much in what FO thinks. I think your opinion of the Texans is much more trustworthy than their DVOA stats, because you watch the Texans closely.

Overall I agree that the defense has been terrible this season, but these guys are on crack if they think DVOA tells the tale of the team's defensive performance over the last four weeks. That game recap does not accurately describe the game I watched Sunday (and rewatched on dvr twice).

The defense deserves credit for what they did against Tennessee.

noxiousdog
12-18-2008, 08:52 AM
The only place significant improvement has been made is in the scoring column, and that has more to do with few offensive turnovers than it does defensive prowess.

I looked at how often the Texans have kept other teams below their rushing average per play and/or passing average per play. They've only done it 5 times. Tennessee last week, both running and passing. Cleveland passing. Miami running. Tennessee running the first time.

Over the last games, Green Bay and Jacksonville were over their season average on both sides, and Cleveland was over rushing.

There has been no drastic improvement. It's all about the offense not turning the ball over.

noxiousdog
12-18-2008, 08:54 AM
TC,

I think you invest too much in what FO thinks. I think your opinion of the Texans is much more trustworthy than their DVOA stats, because you watch the Texans closely.

Overall I agree that the defense has been terrible this season, but these guys are on crack if they think DVOA tells the tale of the team's defensive performance over the last four weeks. That game recap does not accurately describe the game I watched Sunday (and rewatched on dvr twice).

The defense deserves credit for what they did against Tennessee.

They do deserve credit for Tennessee. It was easily their best game. But 1 of 14 is a failure.

Mailman
12-18-2008, 09:00 AM
They do deserve credit for Tennessee. It was easily their best game. But 1 of 14 is a failure.

It is indisputable that the Texans have been a failure on the defensive side of the ball for most of the season. The question is whether they're legitimately developing into a decent defense or if this is just a mirage.

From what I've seen Bulman, Okoye, and DelJuan Robinson do lately, I'm not convinced by FO's DVOA numbers at all. I see light.

Fox
12-18-2008, 09:36 AM
Yea I definitely see the point, but I agree with the idea of the D passing the eye test for the past 4 weeks. They may not have played statistically much better according to the guru's, but they looked a hell of a lot better if you watched the game. Like night and day. I'm still not suggesting that they've looked fantastic, just much improved. Unfortunately I do think this means Richard Smith will keep his job. I think much of the improvement on D was because of what Kubiak suggested, there was continuity with the personnel on defense that wasn't there earlier in the season. Bentley, Adibi, Wilson, Ferguson, Dunta and Deljuan Robinson were all settling into active roles that they weren't in earlier in the year. Combine that with our apparently new found ability to use a well-timed blitz, and our defense stopped making some of the stupid coverage mistakes and looking more aggressive.

I still think Richard Smith needs to go. As others have mentioned, this has been a trend with his defenses since his arrival. Suck early in the year, play average for the last 5 or 6 games. I don't see much risk in trying to upgrade with a new D. Coordinator considering a season average of mediocre performances would be par for the course. Hell, if the new guy could just make us average over the course of a season it'd be a huge improvement.

spurstexanstros
12-18-2008, 09:57 AM
Ahem....(clearing throat to sing a song in the lone ranger tune)

Fire Rick, Fire Rick
Fire Rick, Fire rick rick rick
Fire Rick, Fire Rick
Fire Rick Rick Rick.....
Fire Rick, Fire Rick
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Fiiiiiiiiiiiiiire Richard Smith!!!!!
-Thank you
( Also can be used for Petey sucks)

b0ng
12-18-2008, 10:14 AM
In my eyes out of the last 4 games the defense has played 1 good game (Jacksonville) 1 okay game (GB) and got saved in 2 games by the other teams offense having bad days (Cleveland and Tenn). If Cleveland doesn't have a terrible QB situation (For that particular game only due to Brady Quinn basically going on IR in the 3rd qtr) and Edwards doesn't drop 971 balls it's a much closer game. In the Tenn game you can't tell me that defensive performance was outstanding because it wasn't. Kerry Collins and Justin McCareins did more to hamper that offense than we did.

I'm tired of hoping that the opposing offense is going to be off for that day to give our team a chance to win. I felt the same way about the Colt game @IND in the first half. We were up 10 - 9 but that was mostly because Manning was off in the first half. When he started hitting his receivers coming out in the second half the game was completely different.

Some people are right and FO isn't the end all of statistical opinion but they do have a point. I have a question for the believers out there, how many games would we win if our offense only put up 13 points a game? Given everything being equal and there are no turnovers, how many times could we put a W down if we only scored 13 a game? My answer would be 1, maybe 2.

Vinny
12-18-2008, 10:18 AM
When we brought in Ray Rhodes I stated that we would end up playing lots of "bend but don't break" defense....Rhodes likes to keep the play in front of his players and tends to allow lots of yards in the middle of the field historically. At the start of the year we played 'bend but break' defense and now we are still giving up lots of plays but we are starting to play a little better when the field shrinks and on third downs.

Double Barrel
12-18-2008, 10:31 AM
I agree with b0ng's point above. Kerry Collins was as much as part of the Titans offensive ineffectiveness as our defense. There were several plays that he just overthrew his receivers, but they clearly had the coverage beat. If he had connected on 1 or 2 of those plays, the outcome probably would have been different.

You cannot rely on offensive meltdowns to be a good defense. And our D did not cause the failure. Collins was just having a bad day.

We did shut down the run, which I give major props to our D. We left it to Collins to beat us, and fortunately, he's an inconsistent QB. But Mario still needs another pass rusher with him, and our need at CB is glaring.

barrett
12-18-2008, 10:43 AM
When we brought in Ray Rhodes I stated that we would end up playing lots of "bend but don't break" defense....Rhodes likes to keep the play in front of his players and tends to allow lots of yards in the middle of the field historically. At the start of the year we played 'bend but break' defense and now we are still giving up lots of plays but we are starting to play a little better when the field shrinks and on third downs.

agreed. but even the bending is less bent. Reeves and Wilson have made diving plays to swat the ball away on little curls and such. i don't remember seeing that 6 or 8 weeks ago. i don't remember our run defense being stout at the line of scrimmage ever. i don't buy the dunta's back theory. honestly, i don't know what the hell is going on there. but i STILL say that you can expect Smith back.

Mailman
12-18-2008, 10:53 AM
I agree with b0ng's point above. Kerry Collins was as much as part of the Titans offensive ineffectiveness as our defense. There were several plays that he just overthrew his receivers, but they clearly had the coverage beat. If he had connected on 1 or 2 of those plays, the outcome probably would have been different.

You cannot rely on offensive meltdowns to be a good defense. And our D did not cause the failure. Collins was just having a bad day.

We did shut down the run, which I give major props to our D. We left it to Collins to beat us, and fortunately, he's an inconsistent QB. But Mario still needs another pass rusher with him, and our need at CB is glaring.

I don't agree at all. Collins was certainly off most of the game, but a big reason he was off was the consistent pressure the defensive line put on him. He was overthrowing his receivers because he was uncomfortable.

One of his best passes of the day came in the fourth quarter when he completed that 34 yarder to Gage. Hmm, just so happens that he had all day to throw that one. Go figure.

Conversely, one of his uglier passes (and more representative of his overall performance) occurred right after Kris Brown's FG put the Texans up 13-9. The Titans had 1st and 10 on their own 20. The Texans rushed five and DelJuan Robinson got free in the backfield. He obliterated Chris Johnson and knocked him on his ass and was bearing down on Collins, forcing him to throw a crappy pass off his back foot towards Crumpler down field. The pass never had a chance.

The D line is a big reason Collins sucked on Sunday. Yes, McCareins beat Bennett (or was it Reeves?) on that fourth down play, but it would've taken a perfect pass from Collins for the play to be successful because the DB was closing fast. The ball would've had to almost hit him in the head for it to hit McCareins's hands. The front four had effectively taken Collins out of rhythm all day.

Mailman
12-18-2008, 10:56 AM
Am I the only one who doesn't think it's a coincidence that the last four QBs we've faced have all had "bad days?"

Hooston Texan
12-18-2008, 10:57 AM
The defense looks better, but Collins missed a ton of open receivers on Sunday--most notably on the fourth down play, but there were plenty of other guys he missed. I'll grant that we were getting better pressure (though not nearly as much pressure was Schaub was getting), but even a pressured QB should be able to hit a wide-open target 15 yards down the field in the NFL. Collins did not.

While the Jags game saw a better performance by the D, it still was not a very good one. Yes, the Jags rolled up 143 of their 385 yards in the last four minutes after they went down 23-3, but, if you examine their earlier drives, the stops we got were due either to Mario's individual brilliance or Jag self-destruction rather than us stoning them.

In the first drive, a holding penalty led to a three-and-out.
Drive #2 ended with Reeves' interception.
#3 ended with an MJD fumble.
#4 saw the Jags go from their 1 to our 25 before missing a FG.
#5 was the first punt we forced without the benefit of a penalty; Mario sacked Garrard on 3rd and 5.
#6 (first drive of second half) a 35-yard completion was nullified by a 15 yard facemask penalty and forced the Jags to punt.
#7 was a 69-yard drive that ended at our 11 with a FG.
#8 was a 56-yard drive that ended on downs at our 5 with that weird fourth-down-play where Matt Jones didn't even try to get open against Reeves.
#9 was the fumble forced by Mario
Drives 10 and 11 were long drives for the last 2 TDs.

So, basically, the only way we stopped the Jags from moving the ball was either (1) a turnover, (2) a Jag penalty or (3) a great individual play by Mario. Otherwise, we were in complete bend-don't-break mode and the Jags moved the ball on us easily. Now, I'll grant that our better overall play leads to more turnovers and penalties by the opponent, but that was not a hang-your-hat-on-it game (except for #90, of course).

I actually thought the D was much better in Lambeau, but, even then, they benefitted from some key penalties at key times (especially the holding penalty that negated a 15 yard run and let to DeMeco's clutch sack at the end). Still, I think that game was the defense's signature performance of the season--and they still gave up nearly 400 yards.

Finally, the Cleveland game can be chalked up to the Brownies abandoning the run for some completely-unexplained reason. Every time they came straight at us, they got good yardage. Why they didn't stick to it is a question we can ask Crennel when he hits the bricks a couple weeks from now.

No doubt, our defense the last four weeks is a vast improvement over what it was the first 10 games, but that just shows how god-awful we started.

Texans_Chick
12-18-2008, 12:51 PM
TC,

I think you invest too much in what FO thinks. I think your opinion of the Texans is much more trustworthy than their DVOA stats, because you watch the Texans closely.

Overall I agree that the defense has been terrible this season, but these guys are on crack if they think DVOA tells the tale of the team's defensive performance over the last four weeks. That game recap does not accurately describe the game I watched Sunday (and rewatched on dvr twice).

The defense deserves credit for what they did against Tennessee.

My eyes are telling me that this Texans defense is bleh and not double plus bleh.

The FO folks are just confirming with numbers a lot of the stuff I am thinking.

It's sort of like when you get a deep tissue sports massage. And it hurts like hades. But by the end you feel better, not because the massage was good, but because it finally stopped.

So maybe you don't have Petey getting burned for a 96 yard TD, but it is still not even close to what it needs to be.

Double Barrel
12-18-2008, 01:31 PM
I don't agree at all. Collins was certainly off most of the game, but a big reason he was off was the consistent pressure the defensive line put on him. He was overthrowing his receivers because he was uncomfortable.

You don't agree at all? You don't agree that we shut down the run? Holding the Titans to 100 yards rushing with no rushing TDs is hard to argue.

One of his best passes of the day came in the fourth quarter when he completed that 34 yarder to Gage. Hmm, just so happens that he had all day to throw that one. Go figure.

You just stated that we were pressuring him all day. But then here you state that he had all day.

If you look at some of the plays, Collins got the ball to his receivers but he just overthrew them. Other plays his receivers were either dropping passes or put themselves in the wrong position. Collins even connected under pressure. He was just inconsistent, and we will have to agree to disagree if that inconsistency was solely because of our D (your take) or if it was a combination of a bad game along with the pressure of us taking away the run game.

I'm not trying to dog our D, but I'm not going to drink the koolaide that they have somehow turned the corner.

The D line is a big reason Collins sucked on Sunday. Yes, McCareins beat Bennett (or was it Reeves?) on that fourth down play, but it would've taken a perfect pass from Collins for the play to be successful because the DB was closing fast. The ball would've had to almost hit him in the head for it to hit McCareins's hands. The front four had effectively taken Collins out of rhythm all day.

I see your point, but, a better QB would not have been closed down by the pressure we had on Sunday. The fact is that Collins is a decent game manager but he's not one of the NFL's great QBs. The pressure we put on him was perhaps enough to do it (along with limiting their run game), but we are going to need something stronger to go up against the better QBs in the league. That's all I'm trying to say here.

Mailman
12-18-2008, 01:34 PM
My eyes are telling me that this Texans defense is bleh and not double plus bleh.

The FO folks are just confirming with numbers a lot of the stuff I am thinking.

It's sort of like when you get a deep tissue sports massage. And it hurts like hades. But by the end you feel better, not because the massage was good, but because it finally stopped.

So maybe you don't have Petey getting burned for a 96 yard TD, but it is still not even close to what it needs to be.

I don't read the site often, but from the few recaps I've read I get the impression they're more concerned with one-upping each other with witty zingers second-guessing players and coaches than offering factual observations of the games. I find the Football Guys do a better job because they give straight information without trying to impress everyone with clever ridicule.

Vince Verhei's observations this week were kinda off the mark, IMO, and I'm surprised that a football expert would express confusion about the onside kick at the end of the first half. Was it really that confusing, Vince? All they were trying to do was play keep away from the Texans' returners. They got lucky and actually recovered the ball.

The defense over the last month has played well. The Texans are winning the turnover battle and they're getting off the field on third down, two things they weren't doing when they were losing. They're not giving up 30 points a game, either. I'm not saying they're great, but they're better than the Outsiders believe them to be. Schatz and the other FO experts are too focused on what they did over the last three months and not focused enough on the last month. I think it's a trend and not a mirage.

noxiousdog
12-18-2008, 01:44 PM
Am I the only one who doesn't think it's a coincidence that the last four QBs we've faced have all had "bad days?"

Collins had a bad day. Quinn/Anderson had a below average day.


Rodgers went 19/30 for 295 yards, 2 TDs and a pick.
Gerrard went 25/35 for 287 yards, 1 TD and a pick.
Those are good days.

HOU-TEX
12-18-2008, 01:45 PM
You don't agree at all? You don't agree that we shut down the run? Holding the Titans to 100 yards rushing with no rushing TDs is hard to argue.



You just stated that we were pressuring him all day. But then here you state that he had all day.

If you look at some of the plays, Collins got the ball to his receivers but he just overthrew them. Other plays his receivers were either dropping passes or put themselves in the wrong position. Collins even connected under pressure. He was just inconsistent, and we will have to agree to disagree if that inconsistency was solely because of our D (your take) or if it was a combination of a bad game along with the pressure of us taking away the run game.

I'm not trying to dog our D, but I'm not going to drink the koolaide that they have somehow turned the corner.



I see your point, but, a better QB would not have been closed down by the pressure we had on Sunday. The fact is that Collins is a decent game manager but he's not one of the NFL's great QBs. The pressure we put on him was perhaps enough to do it (along with limiting their run game), but we are going to need something stronger to go up against the better QBs in the league. That's all I'm trying to say here.

I agree with these observations. I've been watching tidbits of the game during my lunches this week and it's obvious Collins had a very bad game. He was either over-throwing targets or too late delivering the ball to his WR's.

If that had been the Colts offense our D would've been lit up. BUT, we did play the run nicely, comparatively speaking.

In the end, it was a W against a team who was presently the best in the NFL. I'll take that any way I can get it.

:fans:

Mailman
12-18-2008, 01:49 PM
Collins had a bad day. Quinn/Anderson had a below average day.


Rodgers went 19/30 for 295 yards, 2 TDs and a pick.
Gerrard went 25/35 for 287 yards, 1 TD and a pick.
Those are good days.

Rodgers was absolutely horrible on third down, and Garrard accumulated a sizeable chunk of his stats in garbage time.

b0ng
12-18-2008, 01:49 PM
Schatz and the other FO experts are too focused on what they did over the last three months and not focused enough on the last month. I think it's a trend and not a mirage.

So when the Texans did this same song and dance last (playing serviceable defense only after we are out of the playoff hunt, and being an abomination deserving of ridicule when we were in the mix) year, was it a trend or a mirage. I'm more focused on what they've accomplished the past 3 years than I am concerned with the last month. That's a whole bunch of crap with a very small amount of gems to show for it.

And really I think most people that want Smith gone are basically tired of reading the same stuff every September and October, and that is "What happened to that great defense we had at the end of last year".

Mailman
12-18-2008, 01:54 PM
So when the Texans did this same song and dance last (playing serviceable defense only after we are out of the playoff hunt, and being an abomination deserving of ridicule when we were in the mix) year, was it a trend or a mirage. I'm more focused on what they've accomplished the past 3 years than I am concerned with the last month. That's a whole bunch of crap with a very small amount of gems to show for it.

And really I think most people that want Smith gone are basically tired of reading the same stuff every September and October, and that is "What happened to that great defense we had at the end of last year".

I don't remember last year's improvement being as impressive as this year's, but it's been a long time and my memory isn't what it once was.

Trend or not, I don't want Smith back, either. The adjustments should've been made sooner.

noxiousdog
12-18-2008, 02:10 PM
Rodgers was absolutely horrible on third down,

I'd accept that if the defense hadn't been so awful earlier in the year. And I want a defense that is good on 1st, 2nd, AND 3rd down.

and Garrard accumulated a sizeable chunk of his stats in garbage time.

Fair enough. Though, even in garbage time I don't like seeing 8 play 73 yard drives in 2:24 followed up by 5 play 63 yard drives in 1:25.

Vinny
12-18-2008, 02:24 PM
I'd accept that if the defense hadn't been so awful earlier in the year. And I want a defense that is good on 1st, 2nd, AND 3rd down.part of being a good 3rd down team is being better on first or second down. If you can face more third and longs than not, your defense will have a better shot at getting off the field. I say that but more often than not when we do have a team in 3rd and 11 they usually throw a 12 yard pass.

Hooston Texan
12-18-2008, 02:26 PM
I don't remember last year's improvement being as impressive as this year's, but it's been a long time and my memory isn't what it once was.

Trend or not, I don't want Smith back, either. The adjustments should've been made sooner.

This year, the D has played a decent stretch following a pretty uniform run of terrible performances. Last year, the swings were a little choppier.

In the first two games last year, the D did a fine job against KC and Carolina; we couldn't cover Steve Smith, but we did everything else well.

Then, for the next six games the wheels fell completely off the D. We let the likes of Joey Harrington, Kerry Collins and Cleo Lemen march up and down the field on us (along with Peyton, Garrard and Philip Rivers). We could stop neither the run nor the pass: it seems like ages ago, but, going into the 2007 season, we thought we had a pretty good run defense. {chuckle, chuckle}

We then had a resurgence starting with the second half of the Charger game (we shut them out in the last 30 minutes, of course, they led us 35-3 at the half, so it was all garbage time) and continued for the next six games. We effectively controlled Drew Brees and Jay Cutler. Less so Vince Young and Derek Anderson. This was the stretch where Mario really hit his stride and the "maybe the Texans were right all along" talk began in earnest around the league.

But then, in the final two games, the defense reverted to earlier form. Peyton had his typical game against us and then Quinn Gray led a bunch of barely-interested backups up and down the field while we were going all-out to finish with a .500 record.

So while this year has been down-then-up, last year was up-then-down-then-up-then-down. Needless to say, I'm using the word "up" loosely.

Arky
12-18-2008, 02:28 PM
Well, here's the traditional numbers for the defense:

23rd in points allowed/game (24.5)
21st in yards allowed/game (337.8)
19th in 1st downs/game (18.7)
17th in 3rd down % allowed (40%)

And those numbers have been moving up the charts.

I really don't have an strong opinion one way or the other about whether Richard Smith should stay or go. As a fan, I have no say-so in the decision. I do think bringing in someone new would bring on a significant adjustment period just like Gibbs and the personnel changes on the O-line this year. The Texans have proven in the past that they don't listen to the fans all that much so whatever they decide to do, as a fan, I am just going to have to roll with it....

HOU-TEX
12-18-2008, 02:38 PM
Well, here's the traditional numbers for the defense:

23rd in points allowed/game (24.5)
21st in yards allowed/game (337.8)
19th in 1st downs/game (18.7)
17th in 3rd down % allowed (40%)

And those numbers have been moving up the charts.

I really don't have an strong opinion one way or the other about whether Richard Smith should stay or go. As a fan, I have no say-so in the decision. I do think bringing in someone new would bring on a significant adjustment period just like Gibbs and the personnel changes on the O-line this year. The Texans have proven in the past that they don't listen to the fans all that much so whatever they decide to do, as a fan, I am just going to have to roll with it....

I'd like to add another very important defensive stat.

Opponents in our red zone:

Possessions: 41
TD: 27
FG: 10
Score Pct: .902
TD Pct: .659
NFL Rank: 31

For those that think we have a "bend but don't break" defense.....Pffft! I got a bridge to sell ya because if that ain't breaking, I don't know what is.

Arky
12-18-2008, 03:04 PM
I'd like to add another very important defensive stat.

Opponents in our red zone:

Possessions: 41
TD: 27
FG: 10
Score Pct: .902
TD Pct: .659
NFL Rank: 31

For those that think we have a "bend but don't break" defense.....Pffft! I got a bridge to sell ya because if that ain't breaking, I don't know what is.

Well, the 27 redzone TD's allowed is 24th in the league. And I find it kind of curious that the 9-5 Patriots have the worst (32nd) TD Pct @ .682.....

But no doubt, for the year, the defense hasn't been good in the red zone.....

It would be interesting to see how the defensive stats stack up for the final 8 games.... The first 8 were terrible...

Mailman
12-18-2008, 03:24 PM
Over the last four games the defense has allowed:

13 red zone possessions
6 TDs
5 FGs
46.1 TD percentage

Two drives ended in turnovers, one an INT and the other a turnover on downs.

Ckw
12-18-2008, 03:40 PM
i don't know what the hell is going on there. but i STILL say that you can expect Smith back.

Where do you get this information? I sure as hell hope you are wrong because if you are not, I don't know that I can take another season. I am sick of Richard Smith. Sick and tired! No, tired and sick and angry! No, tired, sick, angry, and disgusted with this Dick, Smith!

Texanmike02
12-18-2008, 05:23 PM
I hate to interrupt the latest Texans have turned the corner talk but I figured you would be interested in this, even if you don't particularly like it:

Is the Texans defensive improvement real or fools gold? (http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2008/12/is_the_texans_defensive_improv.html)

It just seems to me I've seen this before. Like in 2006. You can watch Richard Smith talk about this on video between the 2006 and 2007 season. The Texans had an awful awful start but as he put it, they finished strong.

Not really. They finished still below average, and by the Football Outsider play by play stats, they finished that season rated 31st in the league.

I am not against conventional wisdom. I just like conventional wisdom when it is support by data. Stats aren't everything, but they are just a way to look at things relative to the rest of the league instead of relative to some really really poor performances.

TC,

I must respectively disagree with the assessment of the situation. If you've ever read anything I've posted, you know I'm a show me stats kind of guy. There needs to be a careful balance of that though and this is a prime example. I don't have time to do it right now, but I'd be willing to bet that our defense has looked significantly different since Robinson started playing. Maybe look at the last 4 weeks and compare it with each opponents average offensive output as a better gauge because since we've started collapsing the line from the top down this team has been a different defense. But in turning the corner I'm talking as much about as experience as anything. I'll try to look at the stats and get back to you tomorrow.

Mike

ObsiWan
12-18-2008, 05:26 PM
TC,

I must respectively disagree with the assessment of the situation. If you've ever read anything I've posted, you know I'm a show me stats kind of guy. There needs to be a careful balance of that though and this is a prime example. I don't have time to do it right now, but I'd be willing to bet that our defense has looked significantly different since Robinson started playing. Maybe look at the last 4 weeks and compare it with each opponents average offensive output as a better gauge because since we've started collapsing the line from the top down this team has been a different defense. But in turning the corner I'm talking as much about as experience as anything. I'll try to look at the stats and get back to you tomorrow.

Mike
which one?
Dunta or DelJuan
:)

76Texan
12-18-2008, 05:48 PM
which one?
Dunta or DelJuan
:)
I must insist again that the D-line has been the most consistent on our D this year.

It is not one guy.

What happened lately as I had mentioned:
- Fewer mistakes from the LBs and the D-backfield.

And also better tackling... from the guys who joined the team late... and it makes the whole team better.

Mailman
12-18-2008, 06:29 PM
Early in the season, opposing offenses usually were able to execute their game plans against the Texans.

The Pittsburgh Steelers converted 60 percent (six-of-10) of their third-down conversions in the season opener and scored five touchdowns in a 38-17 rout.

Over the course of their first four games, the Texans allowed opponents to convert almost 50 percent (17-of-35) of their third-down attempts and gave up 16 touchdowns.

A much different defense is preparing to take on Oakland on Sunday.

The Texans’ last four opponents have combined to score just five touchdowns against them. Over that same span, the defense has allowed opponents to convert just 20.9 percent (nine-of-43) of third-down attempts.

“Well, our corners have played very good in the last month,” Texans coach Gary Kubiak said. “They are breaking up passes, breaking on the ball. I think we’ve done an excellent job with that. I think we’ve made people get rid of the ball pretty quick, even though the sack numbers aren’t up. But we have made guys get rid of the football, and we’ve gotten some teams in some longer-yardage situations.”

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/fb/texansfront/6170610.html

Texans_Chick
12-18-2008, 07:58 PM
TC,

I must respectively disagree with the assessment of the situation. If you've ever read anything I've posted, you know I'm a show me stats kind of guy. There needs to be a careful balance of that though and this is a prime example. I don't have time to do it right now, but I'd be willing to bet that our defense has looked significantly different since Robinson started playing. Maybe look at the last 4 weeks and compare it with each opponents average offensive output as a better gauge because since we've started collapsing the line from the top down this team has been a different defense. But in turning the corner I'm talking as much about as experience as anything. I'll try to look at the stats and get back to you tomorrow.

Mike

Would be interested to see what you have to say.

Watch this video of Richard Smith (http://www.houstontexans.com/tv/index.asp?mm_file_id=1553&play_clip=Y). It was filmed between the 2006 and 2007. It's probably the most you will hear Smith say about anything.

Notice the type of comments from the players. Most of the comments from the players don't praise his intellect or his game smarts. It's all about how he is passionate and likes to cuss. Oh and theme of the rock. blurgh.

(If that is the best the players have to say about him, that is bad. They are tons more effusive about other coaches on the staff.)

Warning, you shouldn't watch this video while eating. He talks about the slow start the Texans had in 2006 and gave lots of reasons for that. He wanted to build on what happened in the end of 2006. And it is the same ole pile of blurgh. The 2008 defense was as bad as the one in 2006, and at one point in the season was worse than the 2005 defense.

thunderkyss
12-18-2008, 08:24 PM
It is indisputable that the Texans have been a failure on the defensive side of the ball for most of the season. The question is whether they're legitimately developing into a decent defense or if this is just a mirage.

From what I've seen Bulman, Okoye, and DelJuan Robinson do lately, I'm not convinced by FO's DVOA numbers at all. I see light.

I will agree, that our players are playing better.... and we've got what looks like a solid Core of Players that will be around for a while.

But if we don't ever put them in positions to win, make big plays, with well designed schemes, blitzes, coverages..... we're wasting our time.

If we start next year, like we did this year, and last... vanilla... blah, blah.... and then turn up the heat in week 13, what's the point??

dalemurphy
12-19-2008, 12:27 AM
Would be interested to see what you have to say.

Watch this video of Richard Smith (http://www.houstontexans.com/tv/index.asp?mm_file_id=1553&play_clip=Y). It was filmed between the 2006 and 2007. It's probably the most you will hear Smith say about anything.

Notice the type of comments from the players. Most of the comments from the players don't praise his intellect or his game smarts. It's all about how he is passionate and likes to cuss. Oh and theme of the rock. blurgh.

(If that is the best the players have to say about him, that is bad. They are tons more effusive about other coaches on the staff.)

Warning, you shouldn't watch this video while eating. He talks about the slow start the Texans had in 2006 and gave lots of reasons for that. He wanted to build on what happened in the end of 2006. And it is the same ole pile of blurgh. The 2008 defense was as bad as the one in 2006, and at one point in the season was worse than the 2005 defense.

Stephanie,

I've been a guy who has wanted Rick Smith gone since 2007. However, regardless of what statistics you offer, I'm sure I could counter with 10- plus the righteous truth that the defense this year was NEVER worse than that fiasco on the field in 2005!! (300 + yrd rushing games and guys giving 0 effort dominated that '05 season)

I agree that the defense has been frustratingly bad at points this season. I also want the team to get rid of Smith. I think he's a poor teacher with a poor plan and has very little ability to make in game adjustments. All of that being said, clearly the defense has made huge strides over the past month. I get your concern that it's some kind of mirage similar to what happened in '06 and '07 in the second half. I don't believe that to be true.

In '06, the improvement had a lot to do with the health of D.Faggins and the improvement of the offense. In '07, I think it was the dramatic improvement of Mario and some sheer luck. This season is different. First, we have far more talent on the field right now- the return of Dunta, the emergence of solid Dline contributors like Robinson and Bulman, the play of Adibi and especially the addition of Ferguson and Wilson at safety. Second, clearly the team has become much more agressive defensively.

Now, I agree that if Richard Smith was calling the shots on defense next year that there would be the real possibility that this team would take a few steps backwards. I think he's gone! I believe that the reason for the defensive improvement is a direct result of the intervention of Kubiak and/or other members of the defensive staff. I also have confidence that this organization is committed to winning and able to discern Smith's inability to do the job. I think the only reason he wasn't fired midseason is because they wanted to do a thorough search for DC.

Kubiak isn't Mack Brown and Richard Smith isn't Greg Davis! Have a little faith. The improvement in the defense actually signed Smith's death warrant because it proved that his philosophy and leadership on defense was achieving far less than what the players could. I will be rooting for a continued strong defensive performance againsty Oakland and Chicago which I think will further seal his fate. Goodbye Richard Smith! Hello Playoffs!

imatexan
12-19-2008, 01:31 AM
I also think that you put too much faith in what FO thinks.
While they do have truth too them, I do not think you can rate defense by silly stats like this and break it down that much.
While we have not "turned" the corner on D, it has been playing much better and has helpd us win 4 games in a row and that is what matters.

noxiousdog
12-19-2008, 07:56 AM
I also think that you put too much faith in what FO thinks.
While they do have truth too them, I do not think you can rate defense by silly stats like this and break it down that much.
While we have not "turned" the corner on D, it has been playing much better and has helpd us win 4 games in a row and that is what matters.

Imagine what a good defensive coordinator could do with this defense!

The Pencil Neck
12-19-2008, 10:33 AM
I don't remember last year's improvement being as impressive as this year's, but it's been a long time and my memory isn't what it once was.

Trend or not, I don't want Smith back, either. The adjustments should've been made sooner.

Two years ago, we started off with one of the worst 3 game stretches of defense in the history of defense. Smith started off with a no-blitz policy and ended up allowing an old washed-up QB set a record for number of completions in a game. We were giving up over 400 yards of offense per game. THEN, Smith realized he needed to get aggressive and over the last 13 games of the season, our defense only gave up about 280 yards of offense per game... which is in the top-10 level.

Then the start of last season, I was expecting to see that top-10 level defense but we went back to the passive defense. This time we win the first couple of games playing it so it took even longer to get back to blitzing and playing aggressive. I think it was about the Raider game last year that we started doing it. So our defense ended strong.

Then during this preseason, we're back to playing passive and that's when I got on the Fire Smith bandwagon. I've seen this show before and I don't like it. I want aggressive defense from the get-go not from the out-of-contention.

badboy
12-19-2008, 11:53 AM
My 2 cents, we don't know now what we have defensively and Oakland game will not do much to clarify as we should hold them in check easily. Bears may offer a bit more but I think we will begin spring season same frame of mind. I expect no help in Free Agency and probably only one immediate impact draft pick, if that.

My whiskey glass is half full; but may be because I just drank the first half...

Texans_Chick
12-19-2008, 01:49 PM
Stephanie,

I've been a guy who has wanted Rick Smith gone since 2007. However, regardless of what statistics you offer, I'm sure I could counter with 10- plus the righteous truth that the defense this year was NEVER worse than that fiasco on the field in 2005!! (300 + yrd rushing games and guys giving 0 effort dominated that '05 season)

I agree that the defense has been frustratingly bad at points this season. I also want the team to get rid of Smith. I think he's a poor teacher with a poor plan and has very little ability to make in game adjustments. All of that being said, clearly the defense has made huge strides over the past month. I get your concern that it's some kind of mirage similar to what happened in '06 and '07 in the second half. I don't believe that to be true.

In '06, the improvement had a lot to do with the health of D.Faggins and the improvement of the offense. In '07, I think it was the dramatic improvement of Mario and some sheer luck. This season is different. First, we have far more talent on the field right now- the return of Dunta, the emergence of solid Dline contributors like Robinson and Bulman, the play of Adibi and especially the addition of Ferguson and Wilson at safety. Second, clearly the team has become much more agressive defensively.

Now, I agree that if Richard Smith was calling the shots on defense next year that there would be the real possibility that this team would take a few steps backwards. I think he's gone! I believe that the reason for the defensive improvement is a direct result of the intervention of Kubiak and/or other members of the defensive staff. I also have confidence that this organization is committed to winning and able to discern Smith's inability to do the job. I think the only reason he wasn't fired midseason is because they wanted to do a thorough search for DC.

Kubiak isn't Mack Brown and Richard Smith isn't Greg Davis! Have a little faith. The improvement in the defense actually signed Smith's death warrant because it proved that his philosophy and leadership on defense was achieving far less than what the players could. I will be rooting for a continued strong defensive performance againsty Oakland and Chicago which I think will further seal his fate. Goodbye Richard Smith! Hello Playoffs!

There was a time at the beginning of the 2006 season where the Texans were averaging giving up about 500 yards per game.

The FO stats, for better or worse, for a part of this season had the Texans defense rated lower than they were at the same time in 2005. Yup.

I think a lot of people think Richard Smith should go, but it is quite possible that he stays.

Texanmike02
12-19-2008, 03:51 PM
Would be interested to see what you have to say.

Watch this video of Richard Smith (http://www.houstontexans.com/tv/index.asp?mm_file_id=1553&play_clip=Y). It was filmed between the 2006 and 2007. It's probably the most you will hear Smith say about anything.

Notice the type of comments from the players. Most of the comments from the players don't praise his intellect or his game smarts. It's all about how he is passionate and likes to cuss. Oh and theme of the rock. blurgh.

(If that is the best the players have to say about him, that is bad. They are tons more effusive about other coaches on the staff.)

Warning, you shouldn't watch this video while eating. He talks about the slow start the Texans had in 2006 and gave lots of reasons for that. He wanted to build on what happened in the end of 2006. And it is the same ole pile of blurgh. The 2008 defense was as bad as the one in 2006, and at one point in the season was worse than the 2005 defense.

You're probably going to disagree with me on my opinion of the video but I dont' think it told us much. There are worse things for a coach to be called than passionate. We saw clips that were cut from probably 15 mins of video and we got the point they wanted us to get about him, he's passionate and he lives on emotion. It was a press clip meant as a promotion.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not pro or anti smith. I'm pro whatever is the best for the team. If there's a better guy available that can use our talent, go get him. My only point in defending him is that he's an average to slightly above average DC. I don't think he make the right calls on the depth chart necessarily but that's not necessarily a reason to lambast him.


I think we really don't know what to think because we don't know if play calling responsibilities have changed. We can point to depth chart moves and see a big difference. Obviously I don't want to start out flat next year too I just want the best cooridnator out there.

Mike

ObsiWan
12-19-2008, 06:28 PM
You're probably going to disagree with me on my opinion of the video but I dont' think it told us much. There are worse things for a coach to be called than passionate. We saw clips that were cut from probably 15 mins of video and we got the point they wanted us to get about him, he's passionate and he lives on emotion. It was a press clip meant as a promotion.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not pro or anti smith. I'm pro whatever is the best for the team. If there's a better guy available that can use our talent, go get him. My only point in defending him is that he's an average to slightly above average DC. I don't think he make the right calls on the depth chart necessarily but that's not necessarily a reason to lambast him.

I think we really don't know what to think because we don't know if play calling responsibilities have changed. We can point to depth chart moves and see a big difference. Obviously I don't want to start out flat next year too I just want the best cooridnator out there.

Mike


Then that's were we disagree. A big part of being a coach is player evaluation. if he flunks that part of the job, then either he needs help or needs replacing.
Remember how everyone wanted Kubiak's head because he said, based on film, he thought could make HWWNBN a good QB? The diff is that Kubiak corrected his mistake by dumping HWWNBN and going out and getting Schaub.

The only words I've heard from DickSmith on player acquisition is that he coaches whoever they send him. Now that may not be the whole story - as 3TPete says, "I ain't in the room" - but I've not seen any evidence that he requests/suggests/demands the specific guys his defensive scheme requires. I mean, if he's being asked to "make chicken salad" then he ought not settle for whatever kind of chicken$h!t they give him.

dalemurphy
12-19-2008, 06:57 PM
You're probably going to disagree with me on my opinion of the video but I dont' think it told us much. There are worse things for a coach to be called than passionate. We saw clips that were cut from probably 15 mins of video and we got the point they wanted us to get about him, he's passionate and he lives on emotion. It was a press clip meant as a promotion.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not pro or anti smith. I'm pro whatever is the best for the team. If there's a better guy available that can use our talent, go get him. My only point in defending him is that he's an average to slightly above average DC. I don't think he make the right calls on the depth chart necessarily but that's not necessarily a reason to lambast him.


I think we really don't know what to think because we don't know if play calling responsibilities have changed. We can point to depth chart moves and see a big difference. Obviously I don't want to start out flat next year too I just want the best cooridnator out there.

Mike

I'm not sure why you think he's average to above average. He has no prior record as a DC before coming here. In his three years here, we've been at the bottom of most defensive categories. Certainly that doesn't neccessarily mean he's bad but it isn't evidence to contradict the problems with him that I see:

1. He doesn't seem to have a cohesive defensive philosophy that the players, coaches, and management are all together on.

2. He doesn't value a space eating DT?? that doesn't make sense to me.

3. He apparently wants the defense to show a very vanilla and base look.

4. Too often the opposing offense is free to dictate matchups... For instance, Calvin Johnson vs. Faggins... He refuses to ever flip the CBs in order to create some uncertainty for the offense.

5. Apparently, Eugene Wilson was the first person on the Texans defense to illustrate disguising coverage in the secondary.

Lucky
12-19-2008, 08:29 PM
I think a lot of people think Richard Smith should go, but it is quite possible that he stays.
Smith is staying. Gary Kubiak said as much during the last losing streak.

There's no spinning the Texan defensive performance over the first 10 games. The effort in Indy in Week 11 was embarrassing. But by the same token, the defense has played very well during the 4 game streak, allowing only 14 points and 314 yards per game while forcing almost 3 turnovers a game. Had the defense played at this level the entire season, the Texans would likely be 10-4 and looking at their initial playoff berth. Despite the offense continuing to lead the league in giveaways.

I have no delusions about Richard Smith and his defensive coaching staff. They are who we thought they were. This epic winning streak let them off the hook. So you can crown his ass as defensive coordinator for 2009. And we should never have to read another "Fire Richard Smith" thread again. Because from henceforth, this has to be Gary Kubiak's offense and defense. This has to be Gary Kubiak's team. Whatever good or bad that occurs next season has to fall on Gary Kubiak.

Mailman
12-19-2008, 09:10 PM
I'm not sure why you think he's average to above average. He has no prior record as a DC before coming here.

Just for informational purposes only, it should be noted that Richard Smith was the defensive coordinator for the 2005 Dolphins. That Dolphins defense finished the '05 season right in the middle of the pack for points allowed (15th) and above average in FO's DVOA stats (10th).

Texans_Chick
12-19-2008, 09:35 PM
Just for informational purposes only, it should be noted that Richard Smith was the defensive coordinator for the 2005 Dolphins. That Dolphins defense finished the '05 season right in the middle of the pack for points allowed (15th) and above average in FO's DVOA stats (10th).

Not quite right. He was a co-coordinator. For a 3-4 defense that was Nick Saban's baby. Reports at the time said that Saban attended all the defensive meetings.

In that video I linked, Smith talks about how he likes the Texans job because he learned from Saban but because Kubiak is more of an offense guy, Smith has more latitude over the defense.

This is what we know about Smith:

1. His players have not publicly supported him much, have danced around dumping him in the grease, and most of what they say is gee he yells and is passionate. Damning with faint praise. Usually when players like what a coach is doing, you can't stop them from talking about how much they love him and how much they are learning and how smart the guy is and how much they believe in him. See e.g. players talking about Kubiak, Alex Gibbs, Joe Marciano, etc.

2. His defense has underperformed for the last three years with league worst, atrocious starts.

3. He thinks pictures of rocks are motivational tools

4. There are more qualified, experienced coaches that exist with more of a track record.


I think Smith stays but you never know. The Texans have said very face saving things for guys who have been shown the door in the past, and they have kept some moves quiet even though many people thought it was evident that a guy should go. Carr is a good example of that. They didn't overly praise him, but it wasn't clear that he was gone gone, until they said it.

Texans_Chick
12-19-2008, 09:39 PM
Smith is staying. Gary Kubiak said as much during the last losing streak.

Do you have the quote? Because during that same time period, McNair was making noise about evaluating everyone at the end of the season. Texans do not like drama and keep most of their dirt in house.

Kubiak said all sorts of highly praising words about Casserly before his respectful exit.

Though Kubiak crushed David Carr at the beginning of the 2006 season, but by the end, he was much kinder because otherwise it was piling on.

Mailman
12-19-2008, 09:43 PM
Not quite right. He was a co-coordinator. For a 3-4 defense that was Nick Saban's baby. Reports at the time said that Saban attended all the defensive meetings.

It is absolutely correct. Dalemurphy was making the point that he's never been a DC when, in fact, he was the defensive coordinator for the '05 Dolphins. Will Muschamp was the assistant head coach for defense. How their job duties were divvied up is unknown to all of us.

Just sayin, that is all.

Goldensilence
12-19-2008, 09:48 PM
It is absolutely correct. Dalemurphy was making the point that he's never been a DC when, in fact, he was A defensive coordinator for the '05 Dolphins. Will Muschamp was the assistant head coach for defense. How their job duties were divvied up is unknown to all of us.

Just sayin, that is all.

Didn't know about Muschamp.

dalemurphy
12-19-2008, 09:50 PM
Just for informational purposes only, it should be noted that Richard Smith was the defensive coordinator for the 2005 Dolphins. That Dolphins defense finished the '05 season right in the middle of the pack for points allowed (15th) and above average in FO's DVOA stats (10th).

He was the Co- coordinator.

Lucky
12-19-2008, 09:51 PM
I think Smith stays but you never know. The Texans have said very face saving things for guys who have been shown the door in the past, and they have kept some moves quiet even though many people thought it was evident that a guy should go. Carr is a good example of that. They didn't overly praise him, but it wasn't clear that he was gone gone, until they said it.
Sounds like wishful thinking. Everyone but Carr's little brother knew he was out by Week 16 of '06. There has been nothing from any source suggesting Kubiak has had it with Smith. Or that Kubiak is being pressured to dump Smith. Here's what Kubiak had to say following the Texans loss at Indy (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=4892) (that dropped them to 3-7).

(on if he has given any consideration of changing personnel with defensive coaches or players) “I’m always active with them, but no. We have the right people doing it. We just have to keep battling and do it better.”Now, Kubiak could have changed his tune had the defense continued to disappoint and the team continued to spiral downward. That hasn't happened over the past 4 games, and whatever :voodoo: some Texans fans have used on Richard Smith isn't working. Smith will live to antagonize them once again.

Mailman
12-19-2008, 09:53 PM
He was the Co- coordinator.

Not by title.

dalemurphy
12-19-2008, 09:56 PM
Smith is staying. Gary Kubiak said as much during the last losing streak.

There's no spinning the Texan defensive performance over the first 10 games. The effort in Indy in Week 11 was embarrassing. But by the same token, the defense has played very well during the 4 game streak, allowing only 14 points and 314 yards per game while forcing almost 3 turnovers a game. Had the defense played at this level the entire season, the Texans would likely be 10-4 and looking at their initial playoff berth. Despite the offense continuing to lead the league in giveaways.

I have no delusions about Richard Smith and his defensive coaching staff. They are who we thought they were. This epic winning streak let them off the hook. So you can crown his ass as defensive coordinator for 2009. And we should never have to read another "Fire Richard Smith" thread again. Because from henceforth, this has to be Gary Kubiak's offense and defense. This has to be Gary Kubiak's team. Whatever good or bad that occurs next season has to fall on Gary Kubiak.


Kubiak handles those things in-house and treats people with respect. I believe Smith will be gone. I think it was Texan Mike or Runner that had a post earlier about the 4 possible scenarios for the defensive turnaround. That's worth a quick read and I generally agree with the premise. Basically, unless Kubiak was preventing Smith from running a more agressive defense earlier in the year and then finally let the handcuffs off, Smith will be gone.

This team has greater aspirations and goals than being consistantly mediocre. I think they gave Smith a real chance to prove himself this year and he was unsuccessful. I think the organization rightly felt that the talent and situation on '06 and '07 were fairly extraordinary and that Smith deserved this season to prove his coordinating chops. He failed. They've shown the ability to make tough decisions as they did with Carr after one season, a big bonus, and a vote of confidence only months before.

Texans_Chick
12-19-2008, 10:07 PM
It is absolutely correct. Dalemurphy was making the point that he's never been a DC when, in fact, he was the defensive coordinator for the '05 Dolphins. Will Muschamp was the assistant head coach for defense. How their job duties were divvied up is unknown to all of us.

Just sayin, that is all.

Eh, Muschamp and Smith shared duties but basically Saban ran the show. And neither Muschamp or Smith really liked the arrangement and then Saban hired Capers to get another 3-4 guy in.

You can call Smith a solo DC for one year with the Dolphins, but not in the same way he is one with the Texans.

This (http://blogs.chron.com/fanblogtexans/2006/07/everything_i_think_i_know_abou.html) is what I wrote prior to the 2006 season when I researched Smith (my name isn't on the blog except at the bottom but I wrote it). It includes links to relevant articles and some of it is sad in retrospect:

The new defensive philosophy. Many of the coaches on the offensive side of the ball have some sort of connection to the Denver offensive scheme. On the defensive side of the ball, the coaches have been picked from various spots, so there is no sense of defensive philosophy that you can really pick up based on their previous jobs.

The new defensive coordinator for the Texans is Richard Smith. Though it is not clear from his Texans biography, this is his first year as the sole defensive coordinator. (It is a weird semantic thing. Smith's title with Miami was "defensive coordinator", but Will Muschamp was "assistant head coach/defense"). And given that defensive minded Nick Saban is head coach there, it is hard to tell how much of what Miami did was Smith's doings and how much was others'.

Basically, Miami last year was doing the opposite of what the Texans are doing this year. They switched from a base 4-3 defensive alignment, to a base 3-4, and the Texans are switching from the base 3-4 to the base 4-3.

The Miami scheme that they switched to is a base 3-4 that sometimes changes to a 4-3 and features variations and blitzes. It is complicated, and the Dolphin defense was confused by it some, though they got more familiar with it as the year progressed. Mr. 3-4 Saban was very hands on, and attended every defensive team meeting.

So Smith's background before building the Texans defense was one year as a defensive coordinator working for a defensive-oriented hands on head coach who was working with an assistant head coach/defense for a team transitioning to a 3-4. He's had many years in the league with a bunch of different teams, mostly working with linebackers.

Meh.

Lucky
12-19-2008, 10:14 PM
Kubiak handles those things in-house and treats people with respect. I believe Smith will be gone. I think it was Texan Mike or Runner that had a post earlier about the 4 possible scenarios for the defensive turnaround. That's worth a quick read and I generally agree with the premise.
I think Texan Mike and Runner are always worth the read. And there are a multitude of possibilities as to why the Texans defense turned around. Maybe Smith has channeled the ghost of Jerry Glanville? Wait...the man in black is still alive. Make that a multitude minus one.

While there is rampant speculation as to the future demise of Richard Smith on sports radio and fan boards, there's nothing coming from a legit journalist. Nada. Zip. Zero. Everyone from the Chronic, ESPiN, to Car & Driver had the old #8 being dumped. I'm sorry folks, but this is not an analogous situation.

Texans_Chick
12-19-2008, 10:20 PM
Sounds like wishful thinking. Everyone but Carr's little brother knew he was out by Week 16 of '06. There has been nothing from any source suggesting Kubiak has had it with Smith. Or that Kubiak is being pressured to dump Smith. Here's what Kubiak had to say following the Texans loss at Indy (http://www.houstontexans.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=4892) (that dropped them to 3-7).

Now, Kubiak could have changed his tune had the defense continued to disappoint and the team continued to spiral downward. That hasn't happened over the past 4 games, and whatever :voodoo: some Texans fans have used on Richard Smith isn't working. Smith will live to antagonize them once again.


Oh yeah, lots of wishful thinking but there is no way that Kubiak dumps another coach in the grease. Even after the Texans gave up roughly 500 yards for the first three games of 2006, Kubiak was deflecting blame from Smith.

He is the anti-Jerrah. He will not call out his coaches. He never has and I can't imagine him ever doing it even if he wasn't happy at all with them. He preaches a lot about keeping stuff in house, and for the most part, the Texans org keeps things in the vault pretty well.

dalemurphy
12-19-2008, 10:21 PM
I think Texan Mike and Runner are always worth the read. And there are a multitude of possibilities as to why the Texans defense turned around. Maybe Smith has channeled the ghost of Jerry Glanville? Wait...the man in black is still alive. Make that a multitude minus one.

While there is rampant speculation as to the future demise of Richard Smith on sports radio and fan boards, there's nothing coming from a legit journalist. Nada. Zip. Zero. Everyone from the Chronic, ESPiN, to Car & Driver had the old #8 being dumped. I'm sorry folks, but this is not an analogous situation.


There was nothing coming out of Kubiak's mouth indicating we were dumping Carr during the season. Kubiak simply won't call out a coach on his staff. The Carr example isn't meant to be analogy, only an example that this organization will make a change without much warning/notice. And also that they don't publicly leak that it's going to happen, especially during the season.

The reality is that nobody has any information on whether or not Smith will be back. I don't think he will because I think I have a good understanding of what Kubiak is about and I think I've accurately assessed Richard Smith as a pretty bad DC... But I don't know any of that for certain.

It will be an interesting off-season!

ChrisG
12-19-2008, 10:31 PM
a good defensive number is that we have only given up single digit 3rd conversions out of (i think) 33 attempts

Lucky
12-19-2008, 10:33 PM
He preaches a lot about keeping stuff in house, and for the most part, the Texans org keeps things in the vault pretty well.
Speaking of keeping stuff in house, Smith was kept in the house after those terrible defensive performances. Now with the defense playing at a top 10 level (the pts/game, yards/game, and turnovers/game over the 4 game win streak would place them in the NFL's top 10), you think there is a real possibility of Kubiak dumping Smith? Heck, had Carr led the team on a late season 4 game streak, playing like a top 10 QB, he might have returned in '07.

dalemurphy
12-19-2008, 10:36 PM
Speaking of keeping stuff in house, Smith was kept in the house after those terrible defensive performances. Now with the defense playing at a top 10 level (the pts/game, yards/game, and turnovers/game over the 4 game win streak would place them in the NFL's top 10), you think there is a real possibility of Kubiak dumping Smith? Heck, had Carr led the team on a late season 4 game streak, playing like a top 10 QB, he might have returned in '07.

Now that's a bad analogy.

It's likely that the change in defensive performance has to do with outside intervention. If that's the case, it makes it highly likely that Smith is gone. IF your DC needs to be coached up during the season, you've got yourself a problem. The thing is, none of us know what triggered these changes.

Lucky
12-19-2008, 10:58 PM
It's likely that the change in defensive performance has to do with outside intervention. If that's the case, it makes it highly likely that Smith is gone.
That's not likely or highly likely. That's fan board speculation. How about some facts?

After a poor defensive showing in '06, but a strong finish, Kubiak kept Smith as DC in '07.

After a poor defensive showing in '07, but a strong finish, Kubiak kept Smith as DC in '08.

After a poor defensive showing in '08, but a strong finish, Kubiak _______.

Anything is possible. But likely? It's highly likely that blank will read "kept Smith as DC in '09".

Big Lou
12-20-2008, 12:14 AM
3. He apparently wants the defense to show a very vanilla and base look.



Unfortunately except for the end of the season the vanilla look isn't just a look.

If Richard Smith were to open a Baskins Robins the menu would read:

Vanilla
French Vanilla
Vanilla Bean
Double Vanilla
Vanilla Cream
etc....
etc....
etc......

Big Lou
12-20-2008, 12:25 AM
Bottom line to me the Texans Defense is leaps and bounds better over the last couple of weeks.

Stats may not lie, but they can certainly be manipulated, and when looked at from one angle may not tell the real story.

Take the Tacks game for example, the Texans only hardly gave up any third downs all game, especially until the fourth.

No offense intended, but I'm tired of all the "Kerry Collins had a bad day" crap. Home field through out the playoffs was/is on the line, they had a lot to gain. Also all the "this is the Texans Super Bowl" stuff was silly as well. Hey, homefield advantage could potentially be the Titans "Super Bowl", and if we make the playoffs in 09', every late season game will be our Super Bowl next year.

So, regardless of stats, if the Texans play D like this next year all long, and reduce turn overs they will be in the playoffs regardless of wether the Defense is 1st or 28th!!!!!!!!!

The only stats that count are the W and L columns.

Sorry for getting on my soap box, and thanks to Texans Chick for helping keep our recent succes in perspective, it was a good point.

GO TEXANS!!!!!!!

Double Barrel
12-20-2008, 12:34 PM
Now, Kubiak could have changed his tune had the defense continued to disappoint and the team continued to spiral downward. That hasn't happened over the past 4 games, and whatever :voodoo: some Texans fans have used on Richard Smith isn't working. Smith will live to antagonize them once again.

I agree with Lucky. I don't see Kubiak shaking up his staff at this point. I think Smith will be here next year, as well, for better or for worse. This franchise does not act on the wishes of fans unless it relates to merchandise or the gameday experience.