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awtysst
11-29-2008, 11:17 PM
So, it is clear that the Big XII South is in an absolute mess. So I tried to find a mathematical way to decipher which of the three teams should face Missouri in the Big XII Championship game next week.

Clearly, the best measure is head to head. However, as we all know there is a tie here.

1. Analysis Part 1
So, I would use common opponent record as the next tie breaker. Lets consider how the three teams did against common opponents. There were 4 opponents that each of the three played:

1.Texas A&M
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State

That said all three were 4-0 against this group. Texas Tech STRUGGLED to beat 4-8 Baylor. In addition when you look at the head to head matchups:Texas Beat Oklahoma by 10 and lost to Tech by 6. Oklahoma beat Tech by 44 and lost to Texas by 10. Tech beats Texas by 6 and lost to Oklahoma by 44. Therefore, right there, I would submit that Tech is a notch below Texas and Oklahoma and will not continue in the Analysis.

Analysis Part 2
The next tie breaker I would use would be score differential against common opponents.

Here are the results against the 4 opponents:
1.Texas A&M: UT +40, OU +38
2. Kansas: UT +28, OU +14,
3. Baylor: OU +32, UT +24,
4. Oklahoma State:OU +20 UT +4,

If you threw out the highest and lowest for each school (outlier scores), you are left with mean scores of:

UT +26 OU +26.
(when the outliers are not eliminated it is UT +24 OU +26).

Wow. These teams are stupidly close based on common record and score point differentials.

Analysis Part 3
Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

Texas: 85-59
Oklahoma: 80-63

So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

Results
So, it is clear that UT and OU are a step ahead of TT based on this Analysis. Also, it is clear that UT and OU are razor thin close on mean score differentials with the math slightly favoring OU. Finally we can see that UT has played a slightly tougher schedule than TT.

Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head matchup. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.

headsplint
11-29-2008, 11:23 PM
So, it is clear that the Big XII South is in an absolute mess. So I tried to find a mathematical way to decipher which of the three teams should face Missouri in the Big XII Championship game next week.

Clearly, the best measure is head to head. However, as we all know there is a tie here.

1. Analysis Part 1
So, I would use common opponent record as the next tie breaker. Lets consider how the three teams did against common opponents. There were 4 opponents that each of the three played:

1.Texas A&M
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State

That said, Texas and Oklahoma were 4-0 against this group. Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma state. Therefore, right there, I would submit that Tech is a notch below these two.

Analysis Part 2
The next tie breaker I would use would be score differential against common opponents.

Here are the results against the 4 opponents:
1.Texas A&M: UT +40, OU +38
2. Kansas: UT +28, OU +14
3. Baylor: OU +32, UT +24
4. Oklahoma State:OU +20 UT +4

If you threw out the highest and lowest for each school (outlier scores), you are left with mean scores of:

UT +26 OU +26.
(when the outliers are not eliminated it is UT +24 OU +26).

Wow. These teams are stupidly close based on common record and score point differentials.

Analysis Part 3
Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

Texas: 85-59
Oklahoma: 80-63

So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

Results
So, it is clear that UT and OU are a step ahead of TT based on this Analysis. Also, it is clear that UT and OU are razor thin close on mean score differentials with the math slightly favoring OU. Finally we can see that UT has played a slightly tougher schedule than TT.

Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head matchup. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.

How about dropping the team that allowed 41 points in a game? Just sayin'

bah007
11-29-2008, 11:24 PM
Tech didn't lose to Okie St. They lost to OU.

If defense wins championships then Texas is clearly the choice here. You can roll out all the offensive numbers you want, but Texas is #1 in the conference in nearly every single defensive category.

awtysst
11-29-2008, 11:28 PM
Tech didn't lose to Okie St. They lost to OU.

If defense wins championships then Texas is clearly the choice here. You can roll out all the offensive numbers you want, but Texas is #1 in the conference in nearly every single defensive category.

Thanks, that was a typo. I will fix it.

Basically the math shows these two teams are ridiculously close and the only way to really be objective is look at the head to head matchup.

bah007
11-29-2008, 11:32 PM
Thanks, that was a typo. I will fix it.

Basically the math shows these two teams are ridiculously close and the only way to really be objective is look at the head to head matchup.

I hope the voters take into account the way Texas' defense has played.

Hell, if UT had not pulled their starters in the 4th quarter of nearly every game this season, they wouldn't have even surrendered a touchdown to A&M or Kansas, plus they would have held Mizzou to less than 20 points.

It's amazing to me that Texas is getting hurt by style points because they are the only ones with enough class to pull their starters when the game is in hand.

awtysst
11-29-2008, 11:36 PM
It's amazing to me that Texas is getting hurt by style points because they are the only ones with enough class to pull their starters when the game is in hand.

I think part of it is class, as Mack Brown has always come across to me as a classy guy. I think the other reason is simply protecting his starters. Remember the last couple of years how we have been derailed with injuries to Colt. Why risk Colt's health if the game is that far ahead. Chiles is not ready to lead us.

bah007
11-29-2008, 11:40 PM
I think part of it is class, as Mack Brown has always come across to me as a classy guy. I think the other reason is simply protecting his starters. Remember the last couple of years how we have been derailed with injuries to Colt. Why risk Colt's health if the game is that far ahead. Chiles is not ready to lead us.

Agreed. But we pull our starters on defense too.

I know part of it is to get the younger guys some actual game experience. But another part of it is being classy to your opponent and not rubbing their face in it when you have the game in hand.

OU and Tech keep their starters in til the final whistle, even in blowouts. Texas does not.

awtysst
11-29-2008, 11:45 PM
Agreed. But we pull our starters on defense too.

I know part of it is to get the younger guys some actual game experience. But another part of it is being classy to your opponent and not rubbing their face in it when you have the game in hand.

OU and Tech keep their starters in til the final whistle, even in blowouts. Texas does not.

Yup. And the same logic would apply. Is it worth risking Orakpo or Kindle and losing them for a couple of games just to hold a 40+ point lead? Mack Brown talks about sportsmanship and exudes it on the field. He is a guy I can respect not just as a coach but as a man. Stoops tries to run the score up on just about everyone. Power to him if thats what he wants to do, but I respect a guy like Mack moreso. Mack might not be the best coach in the world, but he is a solid human being. And for me, that goes a long way.

headsplint
11-29-2008, 11:46 PM
I think part of it is class, as Mack Brown has always come across to me as a classy guy. I think the other reason is simply protecting his starters. Remember the last couple of years how we have been derailed with injuries to Colt. Why risk Colt's health if the game is that far ahead. Chiles is not ready to lead us.

That's exactly why. Even when a BCS bid was on the line Mack pulled his starters. He is a very stand up guy, and a class act through and through. We could have easily thrown 20+ more points up on AtM, but he chose not to.


And I don't think Chiles will ever be ready to lead us.

The future:

Garrett Gilbert
http://texas.rivals.com/viewprospect.asp?pr_key=62659

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHwBirQRVBc

bah007
11-29-2008, 11:54 PM
Chiles will get to battle Gilbert for the job in spring practice but I doubt he will win.

If Colt leaves, Gilbert starts as a true freshman and Chiles backs him up, changes positions, or transfers.

If Colt stays, Gilbert redshirts, then starts as a freshman and Chiles backs him up, changes positions, or transfers.

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 12:00 AM
So, it is clear that the Big XII South is in an absolute mess. So I tried to find a mathematical way to decipher which of the three teams should face Missouri in the Big XII Championship game next week.

Clearly, the best measure is head to head. However, as we all know there is a tie here.

1. Analysis Part 1
So, I would use common opponent record as the next tie breaker. Lets consider how the three teams did against common opponents. There were 4 opponents that each of the three played:

1.Texas A&M
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State

That said, Texas and Oklahoma were 4-0 against this group. Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma state. Therefore, right there, I would submit that Tech is a notch below these two.

what the hell are you talking about? Texas Tech blew OSU out...
Analysis Part 2
The next tie breaker I would use would be score differential against common opponents.

Here are the results against the 4 opponents:
1.Texas A&M: UT +40, OU +38
2. Kansas: UT +28, OU +14
3. Baylor: OU +32, UT +24
4. Oklahoma State:OU +20 UT +4

If you threw out the highest and lowest for each school (outlier scores), you are left with mean scores of:

UT +26 OU +26.
(when the outliers are not eliminated it is UT +24 OU +26).

Wow. These teams are stupidly close based on common record and score point differentials.

Analysis Part 3
Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

Texas: 85-59
Oklahoma: 80-63

So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

complete garbage....OU's 2 ranked opponents, 1 of which is a conference champ & going to a BCS bowl the other a top 15 team in the nation, out weigh UT's 4 also-rans that are no where close to being ranked despite their overall winning percentage. At least 2 of OU's opponents actually stood a real chance of upseting them....Plus, if any team gets the nod for overall tougher schedule it's OU b/c they play the exact same opponents as texas + they're non conference... stop being biased...

Results
So, it is clear that UT and OU are a step ahead of TT based on this Analysis. Also, it is clear that UT and OU are razor thin close on mean score differentials with the math slightly favoring OU. Finally we can see that UT has played a slightly tougher schedule than TT.

Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head matchup. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.


This is getting sickening...stop whining; you guys had your chance to run the table & u blew it at the wrong time. 1 close win in October doesn't make them head & shoulders better than tech or OU; especially since they have the same records & they all beat up on each other.

I doubt you guys would be using this head to head argument if OU had lost to OSU tonight. Then it would be more of "but we lost in the last seconds on the road....etc.." crap. get over it. All of a sudden it's time to "revist" the big 12 tie break rules just b/c it's looking as though UT might get froze out of the big 12 title game/NC game.

It doesn't matter anyhow... whomever does go to the NC game is going to get beat like a pinata by florida anyway.

Wolf
11-30-2008, 12:18 AM
pretty wild that in a full college season, one play basically decided whether UT plays in the NC or not


Oklahoma benefited from losing first out of the group...just the way college season has always been, it is not if you lose, it is when you lose and at what point of the season you lose in...

TexanSam
11-30-2008, 12:22 AM
I smell a split national champion this year

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 12:24 AM
Agreed. But we pull our starters on defense too.

I know part of it is to get the younger guys some actual game experience. But another part of it is being classy to your opponent and not rubbing their face in it when you have the game in hand.

OU and Tech keep their starters in til the final whistle, even in blowouts. Texas does not.

1st of all, the bolded is not true, Hazle usually comes in around the 4th if the sooners are in complete control of the game. 2nd of all, most of the points being scored against them with the exception of the UT, Kansas & OSU games are coming late when the reserves on defense are playing. 3rd, Hazle is hardly doing anything passing wise when he's getting in there, all stoops is doing is running the ball...hardly trying to run the score up.

It's called killer instinct, step on them until the win is firmly in hand. Hell isn't that 1 of the top things we all say the texans lack?

headsplint
11-30-2008, 12:50 AM
This is getting sickening...stop whining; you guys had your chance to run the table & u blew it at the wrong time. 1 close win in October doesn't make them head & shoulders better than tech or OU; especially since they have the same records & they all beat up on each other.

I doubt you guys would be using this head to head argument if OU had lost to OSU tonight. Then it would be more of "but we lost in the last seconds on the road....etc.." crap. get over it. All of a sudden it's time to "revist" the big 12 tie break rules just b/c it's looking as though UT might get froze out of the big 12 title game/NC game.

It doesn't matter anyhow... whomever does go to the NC game is going to get beat like a pinata by florida anyway.


Haha whats with the attack on Horns fans? Is shumbawdy Bitter? Awwww.. How cute.

Silver Oak
11-30-2008, 07:43 AM
I just hope that if Texas does squirm their way into the NCG, we don't end up with another offseason of "draft Colt or I'm giving up my season tix" threads being started by horn fans.

I'm just now recovering from the "draft VY" hysteria you guys started a few years back.

:shades:

Revolution
11-30-2008, 08:12 AM
This is college football. You have a new team every year and sometimes it takes time for your team to grow together. This is why wins and losses later in the year matter. Oklahoma would kill Texas in a rematch because OU is not the same team that lost to Texas 45-35.

Goatcheese
11-30-2008, 09:26 AM
The people making the arguement that if you pick UT over OU because of the head to head win, then you have to pick TT over UT are really confused.

TT is way behind in the rankings. UT-OU are neck and neck, fighting for the #2 spot. When you have a contest that's too close to call you need a tie breaker. One beating the other is the ultimate tie breaker.

I'm a TT fan btw, so this isn't a UT homer point of view.

Also, OU got outplayed in their one loss. UT gave the game away. Colt McCoy could have run another 38 seconds off the clock on their final 2 plays, instead of snapping it early. With 38 seconds left in the game we were still outside of FG range. The game would have been over if UT hadn't beaten themselves.

axman40
11-30-2008, 09:47 AM
This is college football. You have a new team every year and sometimes it takes time for your team to grow together. This is why wins and losses later in the year matter. Oklahoma would kill Texas in a rematch because OU is not the same team that lost to Texas 45-35.
That would be your opinion.
An opinion is a person (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Person)'s ideas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idea) and thoughts towards something which it is either impossible to verify the truth of, or the truth of which is thought unimportant to the person. It is an assertion about something especially if that something lies in the future and its truth or falsity cannot be directly established e.g. induction (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induction). An opinion is not a fact (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fact), because opinions are either not falsifiable (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability), or the opinion has not been proven or verified. If it later becomes proven or verified, it is no longer an opinion, but a fact.
:cowboy1:

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 10:27 AM
Haha whats with the attack on Horns fans? Is shumbawdy Bitter? Awwww.. How cute.

45-35 signs hanging everywhere & listening to morons calling in on 610 & 790 every 3 seconds whining about this or that regarding why they should be ranked ahead is getting sickening. Has nothing to do with being "bitter" about a loss b/c i knew that OU would still have a shot to get in the NC later as long as they won out. & like i said earlier, i doubt this argument would be used if it came down to UT vs. Tech. I wonder why?:sarcasm:

The head to head match up is really the only thing you guys clearly have in your favor but even that is only against 1 opponent; not the polls, not schedule, not margin of victory not even conference championship if OU would've lost last night. The computer ranking UT has as of now is only a function of the fact that you guys having played your gauntlet of games earlier than everyone else in the Big 12 south, nothing more.

& like i said before, whomever comes out is gonna get hammered by florida simply b/c they're playing the best ball of any team right now....pretty much like i said like 5 weeks ago.

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 10:33 AM
That would be your opinion.
An opinion is a person (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Person)'s ideas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idea) and thoughts towards something which it is either impossible to verify the truth of, or the truth of which is thought unimportant to the person. It is an assertion about something especially if that something lies in the future and its truth or falsity cannot be directly established e.g. induction (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induction). An opinion is not a fact (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fact), because opinions are either not falsifiable (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability), or the opinion has not been proven or verified. If it later becomes proven or verified, it is no longer an opinion, but a fact.
:cowboy1:

apparently it's the opinion of those that matter in the polls as well....

axman40
11-30-2008, 10:54 AM
Last night in his interview, Coach Brown said it best...."I will have a hard time next week explaining to my players, how Oklahoma and Missouri are playing in the Big 12 Championship, when we beat them both."
:)

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 11:26 AM
Last night in his interview, Coach Brown said it best...."I will have a hard time next week explaining to my players, how Oklahoma and Missouri are playing in the Big 12 Championship, when we beat them both."
:)

Yeah well he can start by sending them back out to Lubbock, Texas where their big 12 title hopes went up in smoke....

axman40
11-30-2008, 11:36 AM
I forsee rule changes for tie breakers in the Big 12 next year.
If the voters decide OU should play in the Big 12 Championship game , I am ok with that, however whenever someone tries to tell me that OU would beat UT and state it as fact , I will have to disagree!
:specnatz:

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 11:56 AM
I forsee rule changes for tie breakers in the Big 12 next year.
If the voters decide OU should play in the Big 12 Championship game , I am ok with that, however whenever someone tries to tell me that OU would beat UT and state it as fact , I will have to disagree!
:specnatz:

well yeah...go to bat for your team but all i ask from fans of any team is at least ground it reasonable arguments... I personally just find it funny how now all of a sudden tie break rules need to be changed just b/c UT is on the outside looking in...just take you medicine & keep it moving.

You guys think you're getting screwed over b/c you're not in the big 12 title game & u might get jumped for the BCS title game. Look at tech, they have the same record as u, beat you guys head to head but are ranked 3 spots lower & aren't even in the hunt for the title game anymore. Add to that the fact that they were nearly were pushed out of a BCS bowl bid...... all b/c of 1 loss. U guys might not want to hear it, but UT benefits from being who they are just as the USC's & Ohio State's , u guys just don't want to see that sometimes.

mussop
11-30-2008, 01:08 PM
well yeah...go to bat for your team but all i ask from fans of any team is at least ground it reasonable arguments... I personally just find it funny how now all of a sudden tie break rules need to be changed just b/c UT is on the outside looking in...just take you medicine & keep it moving.

You guys think you're getting screwed over b/c you're not in the big 12 title game & u might get jumped for the BCS title game. Look at tech, they have the same record as u, beat you guys head to head but are ranked 3 spots lower & aren't even in the hunt for the title game anymore. Add to that the fact that they were nearly were pushed out of a BCS bowl bid...... all b/c of 1 loss. U guys might not want to hear it, but UT benefits from being who they are just as the USC's & Ohio State's , u guys just don't want to see that sometimes.

One huge blowout loss. That is why they moved down so far. That is a Fact!!! They also didnt exactly blow Baylor away did they? Texas lost a sqeeker to a ranked team on the road. Oklahoma lost to TEXAS at a nuetral site. Texas deserves to play in that champoinship game. End of disscussion!


And no I am not a UT fan! I have no loyalty to any university and I only watch college football as a draftnik. So youre getting an unbiassed opinion from me.

awtysst
11-30-2008, 01:23 PM
This is getting sickening...stop whining; you guys had your chance to run the table & u blew it at the wrong time. 1 close win in October doesn't make them head & shoulders better than tech or OU; especially since they have the same records & they all beat up on each other.

I doubt you guys would be using this head to head argument if OU had lost to OSU tonight. Then it would be more of "but we lost in the last seconds on the road....etc.." crap. get over it. All of a sudden it's time to "revist" the big 12 tie break rules just b/c it's looking as though UT might get froze out of the big 12 title game/NC game.

It doesn't matter anyhow... whomever does go to the NC game is going to get beat like a pinata by florida anyway.

Please reread what I wrote. I never wrote anywhere that Texas is "head and shoulders better than Tech or OU." Please read before you make up assumptions. I said, that Texas and OU are a step ahead of of Tech and it is a razor thin margin between Texas and OU. How you construe "head and shoulders ahead" is beyond me.

You don't like my analysis and you refer to 2 ranked opponents. Yet I only see one non conference ranked opponent: TCU. The other ranked opponents I see that OU played were Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. Texas played all those opponents aside from ourselves and TCU. But if you look at opponent records, it is a slight edge to Texas. That was my basis for comparison. If you want to comment that OU played 1 extra ranked team, fine, but lets be honest here, none of those non conference teams should have beaten OU.

I am interested how you construed this as "whining", as there was not a word of that in here. This was a mathematical look at the diffciulty given to the voters. As I said in my last statement these teams are extraordinarily close to each other.

Finally, as much as I am a UT fan I would say that if Oklahoma State won last night, Tech would deserve to go to the Big XII Championship game. Since you did not seem to read that either allow me to reiterate what I said about that, "Clearly, the best measure is head to head."
Since Tech beat they would deserve to go to the Big XII championship game. That is the first and most logical tie breaker to use.

I really think you would be well advised to completely read through a person's post before you tear it apart. You might come to realize you completely misunderstood what they said.

ChampionTexan
11-30-2008, 01:41 PM
One huge blowout loss. That is why they moved down so far. That is a Fact!!! They also didnt exactly blow Baylor away did they? Texas lost a sqeeker to a ranked team on the road. Oklahoma lost to TEXAS at a nuetral site. Texas deserves to play in that champoinship game. End of disscussion!

And no I am not a UT fan! I have no loyalty to any university and I only watch college football as a draftnik. So youre getting an unbiassed opinion from me.

I'm sorry, if you want to state a belief that one or the other is the better choice, that's fine, but there's no definitive answer and to say otherwise is simply inaccurate.

mussop
11-30-2008, 01:56 PM
I'm sorry, if you want to state a belief that one or the other is the better choice, that's fine, but there's no definitive answer and to say otherwise is simply inaccurate.

There is IMO and for the reasons I stated. When tech got blown out they were sent to the bottom of the 3 IMO. Top that off with a poor performance against Baylor and they should be eliminated from the disscussion. The rest is simple. Texas won head to head so IMO they should be playing. Once again Im no Longhorn fan or hater of OU or TT. I just think this thing is being way over thought. But you are right thats just my opinion.

Silver Oak
11-30-2008, 03:42 PM
OU goes to the championship game.

http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/8872328/BCS-gives-Oklahoma-nod-over-Texas,-Texas-Tech

axman40
11-30-2008, 04:10 PM
Let's see how Big Game Bob fares this year!
:specnatz:

disaacks3
11-30-2008, 04:11 PM
Analysis Part 3
Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

Texas: 85-59
Oklahoma: 80-63

So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

Awty - This is a well-thought out (and defended) piece you've done here, but one part just stands out glaringly to a guy who really doesn't have a dog in this hunt.

Overall records (in Sec. 3) are a bit misleading. They BOTH played some real chumps - whether those chumps were 0-fer or 4 win teams ...they're STILL chumps. Let's compare their non-conf. opponents with WINNING records.

IMHO - this is where it just totally breaks down. 9-3 Rice isn't in the league of 10-2 Cincinatti OR 10-2 TCU.

I agree that head-to-head ought to be important to the equation, but I aslo believe that if there were a rematch today that OU would take it. Like election results, there's simply no changing the rules AFTER the election. As it stands, it's going to be OU in the title game only because there's a THREE-way tie. Everybody had ther chance to fix this before THIS season and didn't. Like the BCS, it needs to be scrapped, but for THIS year, you play it by the rules at the time.

headsplint
11-30-2008, 04:48 PM
OU goes to the championship game.

http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/8872328/BCS-gives-Oklahoma-nod-over-Texas,-Texas-Tech

Weak. We get to watch 2 teams we beat play for the championship like MB said. This is why their needs to be a playoff system in place. Horrible.

Sal Rosenberg
11-30-2008, 05:37 PM
This is crap

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 05:59 PM
Please reread what I wrote. I never wrote anywhere that Texas is "head and shoulders better than Tech or OU." Please read before you make up assumptions. I said, that Texas and OU are a step ahead of of Tech and it is a razor thin margin between Texas and OU. How you construe "head and shoulders ahead" is beyond me.

You don't like my analysis and you refer to 2 ranked opponents. Yet I only see one non conference ranked opponent: TCU. The other ranked opponents I see that OU played were Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. Texas played all those opponents aside from ourselves and TCU. But if you look at opponent records, it is a slight edge to Texas. That was my basis for comparison. If you want to comment that OU played 1 extra ranked team, fine, but lets be honest here, none of those non conference teams should have beaten OU.

What are u looking at? Cincinati is the big east champ & ranked # 13 overall. & why couldn't either of those teams possibly upset OU. Hell, TCU just beat OU a few years ago in norman & bearkat stadium is a tough place to play.

I am interested how you construed this as "whining", as there was not a word of that in here. This was a mathematical look at the diffciulty given to the voters. As I said in my last statement these teams are extraordinarily close to each other.

it's not out right whining but it is whining nontheless. Otherwise u wouldn't have felt the need to come up with a flawed mathematical formula to try & show why UT should be in the Big 12 title game/NC game vs. OU & or tech. Anyone who has watched all of these teams know that they are virtually identical...UT just picked the wrong time to lose, brought this scenario on themselves & wound up on the outside looking in. Now, b/c of the rules that have been in place since the conferences' existence don't work in favor of UT, they should be changed. I doubt there would be this overwhelming concern about the tie break rules if they'd worked out in UT's favor. If you feel offended by me calling a spade a spade...whatever.

Finally, as much as I am a UT fan I would say that if Oklahoma State won last night, Tech would deserve to go to the Big XII Championship game. Since you did not seem to read that either allow me to reiterate what I said about that, Clearly, the best measure is head to head.
Since Tech beat they would deserve to go to the Big XII championship game. That is the first and most logical tie breaker to use.

well at least u can admit it which is more than what i can say for others..

I really think you would be well advised to completely read through a person's post before you tear it apart. You might come to realize you completely misunderstood what they said.

No misunderstanding i completely understand what u were trying to say, but don't insult my intelligence & say that all of this uproar about head to head is about u guys getting knocked out of the big 12 title game. It's about the fact that OU was likely going to jump u guys & push UT out of the NC game. the big 12 title game would've just been another opportunity for UT to showcase why the loss to Tech was a fluke (which i believe was). All of these 45-35 signs & planes flying over stadiums with the signs attached saying the same things is just weak.

axman40
11-30-2008, 06:38 PM
2008 NCAA Football Rankings - Week 14

http://www.am1300thezone.com/cc-common/mlib/710/11/710_1228082747.jpg

The1ApplePie
11-30-2008, 06:47 PM
So I guess UT gets the honor of being massacred by USC this year or is that Penn State?

Hookem Horns
11-30-2008, 08:01 PM
So I guess UT gets the honor of being massacred by USC this year or is that Penn State?

Do you honestly believe that or are you a fan of a rival school? BTW, I could really care less. I just realized that I couldn't name one opponent Texas faced in a Bowl since the USC 2005 NCG. I looked it up and realized I haven't watched one Bowl game they were in since 2005. I haven't watched for the same reason I don't really watch the NFL Pro Bowl. One word, meaningless.

BTW, someone can call me when they get a playoff system. I have been complaining about college football for years. Even after Texas won the NCG in 2005 I kept telling my friends that I just couldn't get that excited about the whole thing because of the system. IMO beating one team is a "one off" doesn't prove a whole lot to me.

Watching the Giants gut out 3 road wins in the playoffs and upset the undefeated Patriots was a heck of a whole lot more exciting for me than watching Texas beat USC.

When you really think about it college football is decided the same way as American Idol and Dancing with the Stars.

gwallaia
11-30-2008, 08:30 PM
When you really think about it college football is decided the same way as American Idol and Dancing with the Stars.

The BCS is one big money-making joke.

Honoring Earl 34
11-30-2008, 08:46 PM
So I guess UT gets the honor of being massacred by USC this year or is that Penn State?

UT played in a tough conference and lost one game . I'm thinking USC and Penn State deserve each other ... overrated .

The1ApplePie
11-30-2008, 09:03 PM
UT played in a tough conference and lost one game . I'm thinking USC and Penn State deserve each other ... overrated .

I honestly think my Trojans would kill the Longhorns. Best defense in the NCAA vs. Colt McCoy would be entertaining for sure.

Seeing the Longhorns defense against some other system than the spread this season would also be interesting. I'm not sure how they would defend against an actual running game

Honoring Earl 34
11-30-2008, 09:13 PM
I honestly think my Trojans would kill the Longhorns. Best defense in the NCAA vs. Colt McCoy would be entertaining for sure.

Seeing the Longhorns defense against some other system than the spread this season would also be interesting. I'm not sure how they would defend against an actual running game

Just my opinion but I think the four best teams are ... in no certain order ... Florida , Oklahoma , Alabama , and Texas . I'm not sure where I think USC fits but I wouldn't put them with the four above .

bah007
11-30-2008, 09:39 PM
I know everybody and their mom hates the BCS, but in this particular instance, the fault is with the Big XII. Not with the BCS.

The BCS was created only to put #1 vs. #2 in the national championship game.

It was not created to break ties in conferences.

I would expect that some sort of changes will be made to the tie-breaker system after the season.

(And yes Mr. Tex, I am a UT fan but I didn't make this post because I am crying about UT being left out. Plain & simple, the Big XII tie-breaker rules will need to be amended.)

The1ApplePie
11-30-2008, 09:48 PM
Just my opinion but I think the four best teams are ... in no certain order ... Florida , Oklahoma , Alabama , and Texas . I'm not sure where I think USC fits but I wouldn't put them with the four above .

I honestly wouldn't put the Trojans at the top either. Not enough talent at WR to break the top three.

Wolf
11-30-2008, 09:58 PM
lt was nothing we all expected..(or at least I didn't) ..

bah007
11-30-2008, 10:33 PM
I find it funny that the main argument for OU is how well they are playing down the stretch.

They are giving up 31 points per game ever since they lost to Texas. UT is giving up 19 points per game in conference play this year.

The old saying must have been defense wins championships.....except when it comes to OU. Then offense wins championships.

Dan B.
11-30-2008, 11:00 PM
Texas got hosed IMO, but it could get even worse for them.

What if OU wins over Mizzou and plays Fla/Bama in the NC Game. The game is very close, but with absolutely no defense. OU wins in OT. Now say after UT got jobbed out of the Big XII they wipe the floor with their opponent to finish second in the polls.

Two teams with 1 loss. #2 beat #1 head to head. And UT loses the National Championship because they weren't in the top game.

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 11:02 PM
I find it funny that the main argument for OU is how well they are playing down the stretch.

They are giving up 31 points per game ever since they lost to Texas. UT is giving up 19 points per game in conference play this year.

The old saying must have been defense wins championships.....except when it comes to OU. Then offense wins championships.

It's not the main argument, but it's a big part of it. & It makes sense that it's apart of the argument when you have the subjective polls in the picture. If UT winds up with the same record but still plays well against OSU, Tech, Kansas & Baylor the same way that they played against Mizzou & OU, maybe the sooners don't take the coaches & AP polls for a few weeks before they even play Tech . That would've made it that much tougher for OU to close the gap & eventually jump UT.

But since u say that, I find it funny that you guys are still looking under every nook & cranny trying to find any little ridiculous reason why they deserve to go over OU. Tell me when has how well a team plays defense ever been a criteria for who should be ranked over whom? By that criteria i guess USC & TCU should playing in the NC then. U guys had exactly 1 card to play & that went out the window when you lost to Tech.

bah007
11-30-2008, 11:06 PM
It's not the main argument, but it's a big part of it. & It makes sense that it's apart of the argument when you have the subjective polls in the picture. If UT dominates OSU, Tech, Kansas & Baylor the same way that they played against Mizzou & OU maybe the sooners don't take the coaches & AP polls before they even play Tech. That would've made it that much tougher for OU to close the gap & eventually jump UT.

But since u say that, I find it funny that you guys are still looking under every nook & cranny trying to find any little ridiculous reason why they deserve to go over OU. Tell me when has how well a team plays defense ever been a criteria for who should be ranked over whom? By that criteria i guess USC & TCU should playing in the NC then. U guys had exactly 1 card to play & that went out the window when you lost to Tech.

You are just loving this. I don't blame you though. Someone was going to get screwed here and you are happy it wasn't your team.

Oklahoma has no more claim to the Big XII title than Texas does and you know it.

Heath Shuler
11-30-2008, 11:12 PM
It's not the main argument, but it's a big part of it. & It makes sense that it's apart of the argument when you have the subjective polls in the picture. If UT winds up with the same record but still plays well against OSU, Tech, Kansas & Baylor the same way that they played against Mizzou & OU, maybe the sooners don't take the coaches & AP polls for a few weeks before they even play Tech . That would've made it that much tougher for OU to close the gap & eventually jump UT.

But since u say that, I find it funny that you guys are still looking under every nook & cranny trying to find any little ridiculous reason why they deserve to go over OU. Tell me when has how well a team plays defense ever been a criteria for who should be ranked over whom? By that criteria i guess USC & TCU should playing in the NC then. U guys had exactly 1 card to play & that went out the window when you lost to Tech.

you mean other than beating them?

Dan B.
11-30-2008, 11:17 PM
You are just loving this. I don't blame you though. Someone was going to get screwed here and you are happy it wasn't your team.

Oklahoma has no more claim to the Big XII title than Texas does and you know it.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If OU had beaten UT and lost to OSU or Tech, I am certain he would have no problem with UT going to the Big XII game over OU.

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 11:25 PM
You are just loving this. I don't blame you though. Someone was going to get screwed here.

Oklahoma has no more claim to the Big XII title than Texas does and you know it. Why the hell does OU get 2 cards to play and Texas only gets 1?

Maybe a little, but as ive said if florida wins the SEC, They're gonna beat whomever comes out of the big 12...that includes OU.

& it's not a matter of that they only get 1 card to play. what i meant by that was that the head to head match up against OU was thier ace in the hole once OU got into their gauntlet of games & evened the computer rankings out. But Once UT lost to Tech, that card was significantly less valued & even moreso when OU ran tech off the field. They would've needed OU & Tech to lose just to get into the big 12 title game to show that the tech loss was a fluke & they were still that team in Oct.. But aside from that, UT also didn't really have anthing else other than the H 2 H that was significantly in their favor to say "we're better & this is why.."

It's not black & white for either team really, OU just lucked out in the instance b/c i doubt they or any other big 12 team had scrolled down the rules on a 3-way tie break prior to the start of the season.

Dan B.
11-30-2008, 11:33 PM
I honestly think my Trojans would kill the Longhorns. Best defense in the NCAA vs. Colt McCoy would be entertaining for sure.

Seeing the Longhorns defense against some other system than the spread this season would also be interesting. I'm not sure how they would defend against an actual running game

Seeing the Trojans play any team with a defense would be interesting. I'm not sure how they would play against an aggresive angry defense like Texas'. Personally I think UT would pull that out, but it would be an entertaining game for sure. I could see that game in the Rose Bowl getting better ratings than the NC, especially if the NC is two relatively small teams like OU and Alabama.

bah007
11-30-2008, 11:35 PM
I honestly think my Trojans would kill the Longhorns. Best defense in the NCAA vs. Colt McCoy would be entertaining for sure.

Seeing the Longhorns defense against some other system than the spread this season would also be interesting. I'm not sure how they would defend against an actual running game

Too bad we won't get to find out.

Texas will probably be playing Ohio St or Utah in the Fiesta Bowl. Both run the spread but run it differently than the teams in the Big XII.

Mr teX
11-30-2008, 11:44 PM
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. If OU had beaten UT and lost to OSU or Tech, I am certain he would have no problem with UT going to the Big XII game over OU.

You would be correct. I only root for OU b/c i like stoops as a coach, they feel the same way about UT as i do & b/c my coogs will never be in the NC hunt....They are also a very good team.

It would surely chap my britches but if the shoe were on the other foot, the realist in me would have to give way to UT.....of course i'd be rooting for whomever they were playing against in the title games...:)

& to the other guy so far i've heard all these from various sources:


-we beat them head to head & that's it...

-we barely lost to tech on the last second....

- our schedule was tougher... which is turning out to be not true by the way.

- It's hard to play 4 ranked teams in a row ...& we barely lost to the last of those teams..that 1 was laughable.

- we play defense better - Ok, bah 007 didn't actually say this was a reason but he introduced it as a counter to the playing better now argument which has always been criteria for the polls.

- Our computer ranking is better....yeah, before OU had played their gauntlet.

- Tech was overated & the blowout win OU posted against them doesn't mean as much b/c they beat them at home.....So does that mean that the blowout u guys posted against Mizzou at home count for less as well?

and various other reasons which are for the most part mutations of these above.

Honoring Earl 34
12-01-2008, 04:42 PM
I honestly wouldn't put the Trojans at the top either. Not enough talent at WR to break the top three.

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/for_the_record/posts/27981-is-the-best-team-always-the-most-deserving-team?eref=fromSI

markn
12-01-2008, 05:04 PM
So, it is clear that the Big XII South is in an absolute mess. So I tried to find a mathematical way to decipher which of the three teams should face Missouri in the Big XII Championship game next week.

Clearly, the best measure is head to head. However, as we all know there is a tie here.

1. Analysis Part 1
So, I would use common opponent record as the next tie breaker. Lets consider how the three teams did against common opponents. There were 4 opponents that each of the three played:

1.Texas A&M
2. Kansas
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma State

That said all three were 4-0 against this group. Texas Tech STRUGGLED to beat 4-8 Baylor. In addition when you look at the head to head matchups:Texas Beat Oklahoma by 10 and lost to Tech by 6. Oklahoma beat Tech by 44 and lost to Texas by 10. Tech beats Texas by 6 and lost to Oklahoma by 44. Therefore, right there, I would submit that Tech is a notch below Texas and Oklahoma and will not continue in the Analysis.

Analysis Part 2
The next tie breaker I would use would be score differential against common opponents.

Here are the results against the 4 opponents:
1.Texas A&M: UT +40, OU +38
2. Kansas: UT +28, OU +14,
3. Baylor: OU +32, UT +24,
4. Oklahoma State:OU +20 UT +4,

If you threw out the highest and lowest for each school (outlier scores), you are left with mean scores of:

UT +26 OU +26.
(when the outliers are not eliminated it is UT +24 OU +26).

Wow. These teams are stupidly close based on common record and score point differentials.

Analysis Part 3
Lets look next at records of each schools non Big XII opponents. Texas: 6-6(Fla Atl), 5-7(UTEP), 5-7(Arkansas), 9-3(Rice)=25-23

Oklahoma: 1-11(Chatanooga), 10-2(Cincinatti), 0-11(Washington),10-2(TCU)=21-26 or 22-25(if Washington wins next week).

Texas has played a stronger non conference BCS record. But does that hold up across complete schedule?

Texas: 85-59
Oklahoma: 80-63

So even when comparing schedules overall and outside of Big XII play, Texas played a more difficult schedule.

Results
So, it is clear that UT and OU are a step ahead of TT based on this Analysis. Also, it is clear that UT and OU are razor thin close on mean score differentials with the math slightly favoring OU. Finally we can see that UT has played a slightly tougher schedule than TT.

Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head matchup. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.

I believe there's a logical inconsistency here right up top. First you use head-to-heads as a tie-breaker. Secondly you use common opponents. Thirdly, you use points differential against common opponents.

The inconsistency is that you're ignoring points differential in head-to-heads. Since PD is the next most important factor after common opponents, it should also logically follow that is is the next most important factor after head-to-heads.

threetoedpete
12-02-2008, 12:14 AM
Based on all this, I believe you have to go back to head to head match up. There are no other fair stats to utilize.
In the head to head matchup, Texas won the game and in my opinion should go to the Big XII Championship game next week.



Great write up and all. what it all came down to was who had the sexiest victories at the end of the season. Your logic form my point of view is iron clad. As strong as your logic is what I remember is the '69 game in Arkansas. 15-14 Remember ? Nixon came waltzing into the locker room handing the trophy to Darrel Royal . Remember ?...the guy laughing up hs sleeve right now is Joe Pa. He's had this crap happen to him three times now... what I believe in is karma...This time it was the horns turn to sit on the what's it and spin.

The great lesson here is that life is not fair. Sometimes Bambi doesn't make it out alive. Not bad or evil...just life.

threetoedpete
12-02-2008, 10:14 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowlprojection?season=2008&week=14

awtysst
03-02-2009, 08:51 PM
And I don't think Chiles will ever be ready to lead us.


I dug this thread up because of your last comment on Chiles. Since Chiles requested and was granted the opportunity to switch to WR, it looks like you are correct.

bah007
03-02-2009, 08:53 PM
I dug this thread up because of your last comment on Chiles. Since Chiles requested and was granted the opportunity to switch to WR, it looks like you are correct.

Did Chiles request it?

Greg Davis has been trying to move Chiles to WR for at least two years now and Chiles has always said no.

I think he finally saw the writing on the wall. Bout' time too.

Blake
03-02-2009, 09:34 PM
All reports indicate that Chiles requested it.

bah007
03-02-2009, 09:44 PM
All reports indicate that Chiles requested it.

Well good for him.