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brakos82
09-01-2008, 04:49 PM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_sat_2_anim.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/nine09l.2008090112_anim.gif

:headhurts:

GuerillaBlack
09-01-2008, 04:54 PM
Ike will be one to worry about for the Gulf Coast.

jaayteetx
09-01-2008, 04:56 PM
Ok, I'm getting tired of these storms and I don't even live on the gulf coast!

brakos82
09-01-2008, 04:57 PM
Ok, I'm getting tired of these storms and I don't even live on the gulf coast!
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/76/228262114_0b540ce21f.jpg

2BCF
09-01-2008, 04:58 PM
Well, at least all my gutters are cleaned out and aligned properly...as of noon today, whew.
Now, I better see some rain in the near future dammit. :D

GuerillaBlack
09-01-2008, 04:58 PM
And we haven't even reached peak season. This is almost like 2005. Almost.

edo783
09-01-2008, 05:00 PM
Ike will be one to worry about for the Gulf Coast.

And we aren't even named Tina.

brakos82
09-01-2008, 05:02 PM
And we haven't even reached peak season. This is almost like 2005. Almost.
I've been hearing comparisons to 1995. They were two storms ahead of 2008 at this point.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1995_charts/at1995.gif

TexanSam
09-01-2008, 05:25 PM
Ike will be one to worry about for the Gulf Coast.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

This is about Ike

The computer models tell us that this tropical depression has a reasonable chance of striking Florida or possibly even sneaking into the Gulf of Mexico during the next week or so.

But that seems somewhat unlikely from an historical perspective.

Since at least the year 1900, only one tropical storm has formed within 150 nautical miles of this tropical depression and tracked all the way to Texas. For most systems, it's simply too far north for storms this far east of the continental United States.

According to Brian Brettscheider, of the 67 tropical storms that have passed within 150 miles of Tropical Depression Nine's position since 1900, eight have made a U.S. landfall. That's 12 percent.

Therefore, while this system will likely become a hurricane during the next week, it's something Gulf Coast residents probably needn't overly concern ourselves with. If that changes I'll of course let you know.

Speedy
09-01-2008, 05:54 PM
And we haven't even reached peak season. This is almost like 2005. Almost.

On this date (Sep. 1) in '05, the depression that would become Maria, on Sep. 2, formed.

We're about 4 storms behind that pace, but October (7 storms) and then the 4 VERY unusual storms in November and December helped blow up 2005. 11 storms AFTER the peak of the season. We're just getting to the peak and we're just at 9. That's how weird 2005 was.

Speedy
09-01-2008, 06:01 PM
I've been hearing comparisons to 1995. They were two storms ahead of 2008 at this point.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1995_charts/at1995.gif

True. On this date in 1995, Luis had just reached Cat 4 status a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. We're 3 storms behind that pace.

GuerillaBlack
09-01-2008, 06:04 PM
For the 1995 season, how the hell did a storm strengthen in the middle of America?

FILO_girl
09-01-2008, 06:09 PM
Ah, Ike.
So appropriate. Named for my brother in law, a PITA (pain in the ***) from Mississippi. If there will be trouble coming to us, it will be from Ike.

My sister is going to hate all the wisecracks I will have for this one until it dissipates. Especially if he comes over here. I am glad that Doc isn't in the hurricane name rotation...she would have too much fun. (No love between us spouse-in-laws, can ya tell?).

:shades:

Speedy
09-01-2008, 06:12 PM
For the 1995 season, how the hell did a storm strengthen in the middle of America?

If you're referring to Opal, those things, that far inland, and especially in October, get caught up in a cold front and morph into a strong low pressure center, like a Nor'easter. It's a cold air core and doesn't feed off warm water. And those things can produce hurricane force winds. That is likely what happened to Opal.

GuerillaBlack
09-01-2008, 06:15 PM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_sat.jpg

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/nine09l.2008090112_anim.gif?cache=181

PapaL
09-01-2008, 06:40 PM
Just lovely - my parents are suppose to be flying out of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Why did I sense I'm going to be waiting at the Airport forever waiting for them?

brakos82
09-01-2008, 06:46 PM
Just lovely - my parents are suppose to be flying out of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Why did I sense I'm going to be waiting at the Airport forever waiting for them?
Just dress up in a suit and wear an Eisenhower mask... the storm'll get scared and leave.

PapaL
09-01-2008, 06:56 PM
Just dress up in a suit and wear an Eisenhower mask... the storm'll get scared and leave.

And I'll probably get arrested at the Airport.

brakos82
09-01-2008, 06:58 PM
And I'll probably get arrested at the Airport.
That was the idea. :)

hobie
09-01-2008, 09:03 PM
Too far away for me to even give a rats A!!

sakebomb
09-02-2008, 12:09 AM
This is the mother of all storms. The storm of the centry if you will.

Get out now. If you stay you are an *****.



BLAH BLAH BLAH

GuerillaBlack
09-02-2008, 07:25 AM
Too far away for me to even give a rats A!!

Just close your eyes and pretend it's not there.

Brando
09-02-2008, 09:27 AM
And we aren't even named Tina.


I just got the Tina Turner reference! lol

Where would Tina Turner be right now if she'd rolled over and said, "Hit me again, Ike, and put some stank on it!"? Rollin' on the river, that's where she'd be.

edo783
09-02-2008, 09:37 AM
I just got the Tina Turner reference! lol

I was beginning to wonder if anyone did.

Tedc
09-02-2008, 11:38 PM
Lookout Florida.

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y224/Tedc/disneyhurricane.jpg

This is a pic from a few years ago but I was reminded of it looking at the tropics.

GuerillaBlack
09-02-2008, 11:39 PM
That can't be real.

GuerillaBlack
09-03-2008, 05:26 PM
Ike be a hurricane yall.

Austrian
09-03-2008, 08:18 PM
Ike now a major hurricane.

YellerLotYeller
09-03-2008, 09:07 PM
Looks like bowling bowl headed this way.....

http://image.weather.com/images/sat/atl_oce_sat_600x405.jpg

GuerillaBlack
09-03-2008, 11:05 PM
Damn, Ike is a Cat 4. This thread title should be updated.

GlassHalfFull
09-03-2008, 11:13 PM
This is amazing

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst.gif

GuerillaBlack
09-03-2008, 11:18 PM
RIP Gustav.

GuerillaBlack
09-03-2008, 11:25 PM
http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/SAT_ATL_WVENH_ANI-2.gif

ccdude730
09-04-2008, 12:25 AM
hey gb, you shouldnt be posting crooked pictures of america! use a REAL map

:joker:

TexanSam
09-04-2008, 10:06 AM
There's a small chance that it could curve north and head towards the northeast coast...

I can't imagine the mayhem that would follow if a major hurricane were headed towards New York

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/083712W_sm.gif

Texan_Bill
09-04-2008, 10:07 AM
http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/SAT_ATL_WVENH_ANI-2.gif

GB, that's one of the best satellite loops I have seen... Awesome!!

TEXANS84
09-04-2008, 10:22 AM
GB, that's one of the best satellite loops I have seen... Awesome!!

www.tropicwx.com

GuerillaBlack
09-04-2008, 04:55 PM
Ike be pissed yo.

Austrian
09-04-2008, 04:59 PM
Ike could very well be a major threat to Florida.

Texan_Bill
09-04-2008, 05:05 PM
www.tropicwx.com

"Hey Laura, I've been searchin' around on this world wide web thing that Al Gore invented and I found this sweet website.....?


Thanks for the link - that's awesome.

TEXANS84
09-04-2008, 05:54 PM
Wonderful. So if Ike hits Miami on Tuesday, it will probably move up to Georgia/Atlanta area on the 11th (Thursday), the same day I fly into Atlanta.

I guess I will need extra Jack Daniels for that flight.

Andrew6
09-04-2008, 06:01 PM
uh oh Tina better watch out, Here comes IKE

GuerillaBlack
09-04-2008, 06:32 PM
Wonderful. So if Ike hits Miami on Tuesday, it will probably move up to Georgia/Atlanta area on the 11th (Thursday), the same day I fly into Atlanta.

I guess I will need extra Jack Daniels for that flight.

No, Ike will probably plow right through Florida and not move up.

edo783
09-04-2008, 10:44 PM
uh oh Tina better watch out, Here comes IKE

Yup, if Tina is in the neighborhood, she is going to get knocked around.

hobie
09-05-2008, 08:20 AM
Wonderful. So if Ike hits Miami on Tuesday, it will probably move up to Georgia/Atlanta area on the 11th (Thursday), the same day I fly into Atlanta.

I guess I will need extra Jack Daniels for that flight.

Just for the Flight??? Don't deprive yourself......

Koolaid Time
09-06-2008, 07:08 AM
I don't like Ike... it looks like its another Andrew.

I wonder if they have the contraflow worked out on the Mississippi and Louisiana Interstates, because come next Wednesday they are going to have to bail out of New Orleans again... That was a cluster F last week.

Nagin's stupid "Gustav is the Mother of all Storms" remark, along with the hassle of the authorities not letting people back in to New Orleans and leaving them sitting along the side of Interstate 55 and 59 will just make it harder to evacuate NOLA this time..

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

GlassHalfFull
09-06-2008, 11:34 PM
Hmmmm

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

jaayteetx
09-07-2008, 11:29 AM
Not liking this storm, not one bit. Looks like it could impact the home opener, no?

gwallaia
09-07-2008, 11:34 AM
If Ike stays on the red or blue course, the UH-Air Force game will probably be canceled and the Texans-Ravens game will have to be postponed somehow. The Texans and Ravens do not have the same bye week.

Showtime100
09-07-2008, 11:42 AM
If Ike stays on the red or blue course, the UH-Air Force game will probably be canceled and the Texans-Ravens game will have to be postponed somehow. The Texans and Ravens do not have the same bye week.

Watch them move the Texan game to Dallas..lol. Jerry Jones will need yet another face lift after that one.

drewmar74
09-07-2008, 11:55 AM
For what its worth, I just bought about 18 sheets of plywood and will start the boarding process tomorrow evening....

Price you pay, I suppose, for living in paradise.

TexanSam
09-07-2008, 12:01 PM
I hope it weakens severely over Cuba

FILO_girl
09-07-2008, 02:16 PM
I hope it weakens severely over Cuba
It will, supposed to weaken down to a cat 1..but to rebound back in the bath water in the Gulf.

Its high season for hurricanes...not only is our team playing like its 2005...seems the tropics may feel the same way. Remember THAT hurricane season...no one down here should ever forget.... :wild:

TexanSam
09-07-2008, 06:45 PM
Here's a cool hurricane tracking map

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Dread-Head
09-07-2008, 06:56 PM
And we aren't even named Tina.

We should be okay...as long as we don't try to "help Ike" That tends to piss him off.

2BCF
09-07-2008, 07:37 PM
it's deja vu all over again.

Koolaid Time
09-07-2008, 10:07 PM
it's deja vu all over again.

Wonder what New Orleans will do this time? If they wait till its in the Gulf they won't have enough time to get everyone out.

I see the "Great Rita Scramble Part 2" coming about Wednesday this week..

GFDL Model has it at Cat 4 a couple of hundred miles SE of Galveston on Friday.

FILO_girl
09-07-2008, 10:40 PM
I was at Wallyworld at Katy Mills this morning and encountered several people shopping for their hurricane kits. One guy was busting on his wife about the importance of good salsa in a hurricane kit, it was hilarious but one of those 'had to be there' to appreciate it.
I still stand by original Ike posting. My brother in law is relentless on his dislike for anything FILOgirl...and I am just as adament on my distaste for him.

Back off, Ike...I know you wanna come mess with me. :aggressive:

2BCF
09-08-2008, 04:26 AM
Wonder what New Orleans will do this time? If they wait till its in the Gulf they won't have enough time to get everyone out.

I see the "Great Rita Scramble Part 2" coming about Wednesday this week..

GFDL Model has it at Cat 4 a couple of hundred miles SE of Galveston on Friday.

It's the Mother's Mother of all storms. :hide:

The NOLAs need to head to FL. It's FL's turn to step up.
I don't care if all their cuzins are in H-town, go east!

nflnutswife
09-08-2008, 11:43 AM
I have a feeling IKE is gonna mess with our tailgates sunday!:hide:

Khari
09-08-2008, 11:48 AM
so what do they do if they have to cancel the game :thinking:

sakebomb
09-08-2008, 11:49 AM
Do you guys think they will push the game up or back a couple of days?

I'm thinking we play Friday.

Tedc
09-08-2008, 11:53 AM
so what do they do if they have to cancel the game :thinking:

First, they will look at moving the game to an earlier date or a later date (a day earlier or later). If that doesn't work, they look at moving the game to a safer venue.

hobie
09-08-2008, 11:54 AM
Well I am sure the NFL would have to decide by Wednesday what to do about it...logistics and all would need that much time to get in place...I am thinking that SA is being contacted about the use of the Alamo Dome...
Moving a game to a Friday isn't going to happen and move it back a day won't matter if it does indeed come Houston's way, so SA is most likely the only reasonable move, but then again, if they think they can pull the game off on Friday and still protect the teams...still a long shot

gwallaia
09-08-2008, 11:54 AM
The Alamodome?

GlassHalfFull
09-08-2008, 11:57 AM
The Alamodome?

We have friends from San Antonio coming in to go to the game with us. I guess we could go there instead. Sigh.

I so want to be in denial about all of this.

hobie
09-08-2008, 11:57 AM
The Alamodome?

N.O. played there when Katrina hit...

Showtime100
09-08-2008, 12:03 PM
We have friends from San Antonio coming in to go to the game with us. I guess we could go there instead. Sigh.

I so want to be in denial about all of this.

I just found out I might have a chance to go see the Cubs/Astros Sunday afternoon. Any word in Houston on the situation/scenarios?

hobie
09-08-2008, 12:05 PM
I just found out I might have a chance to go see the Cubs/Astros Sunday afternoon. Any word in Houston on the situation/scenarios?

As the NFL, I am sure they are working on any alternate plans, so rest assured, if one of the leagues says something about moving their game,the other will be close behind with the same thing....

Showtime100
09-08-2008, 12:08 PM
As the NFL, I am sure they are working on any alternate plans, so rest assured, if one of the leagues says something about moving their game,the other will be close behind with the same thing....

True. Thanks.

Porky
09-08-2008, 12:14 PM
Latest track heads it right toward Galveston. Could be, but if I were a betting man, I would be placing my bets on a Rita like track over toward the Golden Triangle or SW LA. These storms are notoroius for teasing Galveston and then making a northward turn at the end. It's going to be a close call though, and I think we will be testing the contraflow lanes round about Thursday with mass evacs out of the coastal counties.

FILO_girl
09-08-2008, 02:55 PM
Latest track heads it right toward Galveston. Could be, but if I were a betting man, I would be placing my bets on a Rita like track over toward the Golden Triangle or SW LA. These storms are notoroius for teasing Galveston and then making a northward turn at the end. It's going to be a close call though, and I think we will be testing the contraflow lanes round about Thursday with mass evacs out of the coastal counties.
Dunno if I agree with the notorious part...1900 may want to argue that point with you.
I will be watching the mass exodus from my lawn chair if it manifests, with my liquid refreshment.
:)

YellerLotYeller
09-08-2008, 02:57 PM
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809.gif

Honoring Earl 34
09-08-2008, 03:03 PM
A week ago it was going to Miami , then Tampa , New Orleans , now us . I'm thinking it slides farther south .

Chance_C
09-08-2008, 03:16 PM
A week ago it was going to Miami , then Tampa , New Orleans , now us . I'm thinking it slides farther south .

I sure hope you are right.

YellerLotYeller
09-08-2008, 03:17 PM
I sure hope you are right.

Me too....sorry Corpus.

Brando
09-08-2008, 03:20 PM
Me too....sorry Corpus.

No we had our Hurricane already! Dolly made streams in the island!:chickendance:

Honoring Earl 34
09-08-2008, 03:26 PM
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Brando
09-08-2008, 03:45 PM
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

I am beginning to hate Hurricane season.:thud:

GlassHalfFull
09-08-2008, 04:44 PM
Looking at the 2:00 models, my first thought was that this storm keeps shifting west. So hopefully (for us - Sorry Valley Texans), it continues the trend and keeps aiming further west as time goes by. We will be on the dirty side of the storm, but I really would like to avoid a direct hit.

Unfortunately, the most reliable model (GFDL) still has it aiming at us. :thinking:

I think the valley needs to take one for the team (the Texans) and have it head there. :texflag:

Austrian
09-08-2008, 04:53 PM
The GFDL and HWRF and NOGAPS are probably underestimating the ridge, thus trending more northward.

ccdude730
09-08-2008, 04:55 PM
sure. we will take one for the team, but how the hell am i going to watch the game ?

but hey, that might be a blessing...

Thumper
09-08-2008, 05:01 PM
Ike better stay out of the Houston area. :foottap:



I have a game to go see! :fans: :gotexans1

YellerLotYeller
09-08-2008, 05:38 PM
Looking at the 2:00 models, my first thought was that this storm keeps shifting west. So hopefully (for us - Sorry Valley Texans), it continues the trend and keeps aiming further west as time goes by. We will be on the dirty side of the storm, but I really would like to avoid a direct hit.

Unfortunately, the most reliable model (GFDL) still has it aiming at us. :thinking:

I think the valley needs to take one for the team (the Texans) and have it head there. :texflag:

I'm starting to think Dr. Neil Frank has something to do with those GFDL models.

hobie
09-08-2008, 05:40 PM
Well now it's looking like it's going to be heading southwards towards Corpus....Sorry guys, better you than us I say ....hang in there, we'll help out if need be....

Thorn
09-08-2008, 05:46 PM
We'll have a much better idea Wednesday, it's still a long way off.

Amberly
09-08-2008, 06:51 PM
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b252/Amberlybutterfly/FuIKE-1.jpg

:headhurts:

I cant swim..

GlassHalfFull
09-08-2008, 08:41 PM
8:00 Models. Looking better for Houston (and the game), but worse for south Texas.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

jaayteetx
09-08-2008, 08:44 PM
8:00 Models. Looking better for Houston (and the game), but worse for south Texas.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

I like the black line, sorry mexico.

hobie
09-09-2008, 08:43 AM
Looking better every update for Houston and the Texans game Sunday. So what, we might get some rain, but if it hits where it is projected to Sat. morning, come Sunday afternoon, even the heavy rain if we even get it, might lighten up enough to tailgate....Fingers crossed it follows the path it is expecting to....

Señor Stan
09-09-2008, 09:12 AM
Looking better every update for Houston and the Texans game Sunday. So what, we might get some rain, but if it hits where it is projected to Sat. morning, come Sunday afternoon, even the heavy rain if we even get it, might lighten up enough to tailgate....Fingers crossed it follows the path it is expecting to....

Where will I watch the Texans game if my house gets blown down?

Darn you Houston elistists.

thanks,

Stan

Kaiser Toro
09-09-2008, 09:15 AM
Where will I watch the Texans game if my house gets blown down?

Darn you Houston elistists.

thanks,

Stan

Hobie and DB will come down and pick you up. :)

http://www.trentonsoupkitchen.org/articles/weiner/weinermobile.gif

Señor Stan
09-09-2008, 09:18 AM
I like the black line, sorry mexico.



It did remind me of this, though...


Hurricane takes new path (http://www.theonion.com/content/video/hurricane_bound_for_texas_slowed)

jaayteetx
09-09-2008, 09:36 AM
It did remind me of this, though...


Hurricane takes new path (http://www.theonion.com/content/video/hurricane_bound_for_texas_slowed)

now that was funny

Porky
09-09-2008, 12:50 PM
Don't let your guard down guys. I think they have this too far down the coast. I see landfall from Matagorda Bay to Galveston as a cat 2 or 3. Watch and see if they don't start inching the track up the coast slowly but surely over the next day or so.

swtbound07
09-09-2008, 12:51 PM
Don't let your guard down guys. I think they have this too far down the coast. I see landfall from Matagorda Bay to Galveston as a cat 2 or 3. Watch and see if they don't start inching the track up the coast slowly but surely over the next day or so.

hi...i live in galveston...imma need you to reprise your track some

Porky
09-09-2008, 01:43 PM
hi...i live in galveston...imma need you to reprise your track some

LOL. Well, I think it's south of Galveston, but not sure yet how much. It's all a crapshoot anyway when you get right down to it. If that ridge holds strong, it's Corpus or south of there even. I just don't buy it.

badboy
09-09-2008, 02:11 PM
I think these things historicall have a tendancy to hook to the right and that worries me some. I've had a bad feeling about this BADBOY almost since it's inception.

HOU-TEX
09-09-2008, 02:28 PM
Don't let your guard down guys. I think they have this too far down the coast. I see landfall from Matagorda Bay to Galveston as a cat 2 or 3. Watch and see if they don't start inching the track up the coast slowly but surely over the next day or so.

You playin Jedi mind tricks on us? :thinking:

FILO_girl
09-09-2008, 02:45 PM
Don't let your guard down guys. I think they have this too far down the coast. I see landfall from Matagorda Bay to Galveston as a cat 2 or 3. Watch and see if they don't start inching the track up the coast slowly but surely over the next day or so.
So true, I believe that too and the lastest model runs agree.

Cjeremy635
09-09-2008, 02:50 PM
So true, I believe that too and the lastest model runs agree.

Got an image or a link? I'd like to see it.

hollywood_texan
09-09-2008, 03:02 PM
Got an image or a link? I'd like to see it.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

Double Barrel
09-09-2008, 03:09 PM
Another great site for tracking: www.stormpulse.com

Señor Stan
09-09-2008, 03:09 PM
8:00 Models. Looking better for Houston (and the game), but worse for south Texas.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

This .gif changes as the storm progresses...looks like the path is from CC to Galveston...

nunusguy
09-09-2008, 03:15 PM
I think these things historicall have a tendancy to hook to the right and that worries me some.

It's actually "fade" to the right or more dramatically "slice" to the right, if you're a golpher. "Hooks" are to the left. But as an X-duffer, I've always liked that analogy.
But historically many of these 'Canes have taken a path like a golphers fade. Lets hope this one doesn't behave in such a manner.

YellerLotYeller
09-09-2008, 03:15 PM
Most def a Northerly shift......

YellerLotYeller
09-09-2008, 03:16 PM
It's actually "fade" to the right or more dramatically "slice" to the right, if you're a golpher. "Hooks" are to the left. But as an X-duffer, I've always liked that analogy.
But historically many of these 'Canes have taken a path like a golphers fade. Lets hope this one doesn't behave in such a manner.

Maybe Ike is a lefty.

swtbound07
09-09-2008, 03:22 PM
okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.

Cjeremy635
09-09-2008, 03:26 PM
okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.

See that little area of water that cuts into the right side of the Texas coast (maybe about 1/4" to the left from the Louisiana border)? That's the Galveston area.

TEXANS84
09-09-2008, 03:30 PM
Got us right on the dirty side of the hurricane. Should be fun flying back into Houston late Friday night.

2BCF
09-09-2008, 03:45 PM
okay, don't laugh, but im not entirely sure where galveston (me) is on the map of texas.

http://synkronyzer.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/miss-south-carolina.jpg

:D

:jk:

HOU-TEX
09-09-2008, 03:55 PM
This .gif changes as the storm progresses...looks like the path is from CC to Galveston...

LMAO! I thought I was going nuts. I looked this morning and the paths were south and look at the thread again after lunch and it's like Whoa!...WTF is wrong with me?

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often. :thinking:

TEXANS84
09-09-2008, 03:57 PM
Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often. :thinking:

Yep. Once it gets over warm waters, storms tend to jog a bit. It's heading towards solid land (US), and certain fronts and pressure systems tend to influence this storm.

So far this storm is anything but predictable. It has moved a bunch the past week.

Hardcore Texan
09-09-2008, 03:58 PM
LMAO! I thought I was going nuts. I looked this morning and the paths were south and look at the thread again after lunch and it's like Whoa!...WTF is wrong with me?

Anywho, do the projected paths usually change this often? I don't remember seeing anything change paths so often. :thinking:

I have seen this many changes before, it's because it is so far out, by Thursday morning we should have a very good idea. What worries me is in my recollection these things have a tendacy to jog north.

eriadoc
09-09-2008, 04:07 PM
Here's the latest from my guys, as of 2PM CDT .....

Hurricane Ike is about to emerge off the western tip of Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to have preserved much of its inner core as a CAT 1 hurricane with 75-80 mph winds. The storm will be moving over the very warm waters of the Loop Current in the SE Gulf for 24 hours on a northwest trajectory, turn west over the central Gulf on Thursday. Atmospheric wind profiles are very supportive of intensification over the Gulf and we expect Ike to go through a rapid deepening phase and become a major hurricane with CAT 4 winds greater than 140 mph sometime on Thursday. This intensity is just below the max intensity achieved by both Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005. The steering current is well defined through Thursday which should track the storm south of the primary energy Production area toward the western Gulf. However, Ike is expected to be a VERY LARGE storm with hurricane force winds extending outward 100 mi with tropical storm force winds all the way to the northern Gulf Coast and across the Production Area on it’s trek across the Gulf.

Model guidance today suggests that the ridge providing the westerly steering current is expected to break down as Ike approaches the western Gulf. As this occurs, the storm is likely to make a sharp right turn. This turn could result in the center of the storm impacting anywhere along the TX coast with an outside chance of impacts along the western LA coast. Given model data today, the NHC should move the official track to the right of the previous advisory and closer to the Houston/Galveston area as a major hurricane. The result will likely be a large scale evacuation of parts of the Texas coastal zone including Galveston starting tomorrow. If model guidance continues to shift toward the Houston/Galveston area, more widespread mandatory evacuation orders will be issued late tomorrow and Thursday. Confidence in landfall location remains low enough that at this point, we are only comfortable with suggesting the middle/upper TX coast as primary threat area (see attachment/below). This includes the Houston/Galveston area.

Gulf Production Threat is increased 40% and <redacted> is highly recommended (for at least the first wave) based on the large nature and expected severity of the storm.

I would recommend <redacted> employees prepare to be “storm ready” in case confidence in the track of the storm continues to trend more in our direction in the coming days. Landfall is expected late Friday night or early Saturday morning so evacuation orders along parts of the TX coast could be given as early as tomorrow morning.

Clearly a higher level of concern regarding this storm and local impacts than yesterday and earlier today. As for energy interests…can’t rule out a possible impact across the Northwest Gulf, but for the most part it appears to be primarily a shut-in threat. There could be an increased refinery threat if the storm approaches the Upper Texas coast later this week.

FILO_girl
09-09-2008, 04:07 PM
Got an image or a link? I'd like to see it.Everyone who is posting links to Wunderground will get their posts automatically updated. :cool:

FILO_girl
09-09-2008, 04:14 PM
Yep. Once it gets over warm waters, storms tend to jog a bit. It's heading towards solid land (US), and certain fronts and pressure systems tend to influence this storm.

So far this storm is anything but predictable. It has moved a bunch the past week.
Hurricanes get their steering from the winds aloft...they have been predicting a High to evolve to steer Ike north for sometime, but they were not to sure if it would manifest before he hits land...looks like they decided where to include it.
:splits:

Us being on the dirty side...no bueno. :gun:

Porky
09-09-2008, 04:14 PM
Another great site for tracking: www.stormpulse.com

Nice graffics on that site.

As I suspected the models are trending north. I think the NHC shifts there landfall north somewhat at 4pm, and they will trend slowly up the coast. I still say Matagorda to Galveston, but honestly it wouldn't shock me if it's as far north as the Golden Triangle before all is said and done. Having said that, I'll go out on a limb and say just south of Freeport for landfall. Just a go on the record type guess.

And seriousely here SWT. Keep apprised of the news and local authorties. I am going to be suprised if they don't call for a Galveston evacuation tomorrow or Thu at the latest.

swtbound07
09-09-2008, 04:32 PM
Nice graffics on that site.

As I suspected the models are trending north. I think the NHC shifts there landfall north somewhat at 4pm, and they will trend slowly up the coast. I still say Matagorda to Galveston, but honestly it wouldn't shock me if it's as far north as the Golden Triangle before all is said and done. Having said that, I'll go out on a limb and say just south of Freeport for landfall. Just a go on the record type guess.

And seriousely here SWT. Keep apprised of the news and local authorties. I am going to be suprised if they don't call for a Galveston evacuation tomorrow or Thu at the latest.

im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

Texan_Bill
09-09-2008, 04:39 PM
im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

Considering Texas City is basically Galveston Bay - more than likely... Just to help you out a little bit:



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/fused/misc/Maps/Galveston-Houston.gif

Hardcore Texan
09-09-2008, 04:54 PM
Considering Texas City is basically Galveston Bay - more than likely... Just to help you out a little bit:



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/fused/misc/Maps/Galveston-Houston.gif

My parents live between Smith Point and Double Bayou, on that map right about where the road shows a couple of bends, that's only about 2 or 3 miles from the bay. That's where I grew up, in the middle of nowhere. I really hope this thing stays away, my dad just got home from the hospital yesterday, he's on home hospice so at least they will make sure he gets out safely.

Texans_Chick
09-09-2008, 04:57 PM
im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

You don't want to be anywhere near Texas City if a big hurricane hits the area. High winds, storm surge, petrochemical plants. Not a great mix.

/used to do work in a Tx City plant.

Texan_Bill
09-09-2008, 05:00 PM
My parents live between Smith Point and Double Bayou, on that map right about where the road shows a couple of bends, that's only about 2 or 3 miles from the bay. That's where I grew up, in the middle of nowhere. I really hope this thing stays away, my dad just got home from the hospital yesterday, he's on home hospice so at least they will make sure he gets out safely.

BTW, have you updated the thread about your dad yet??

Hardcore Texan
09-09-2008, 05:01 PM
BTW, have you updated the thread about your dad yet??

I thought I did.....I better go check, I think I am loosing my mind..:headhurts:

Señor Stan
09-09-2008, 05:13 PM
Considering Texas City is basically Galveston Bay - more than likely... Just to help you out a little bit:



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/fused/misc/Maps/Galveston-Houston.gif




Oh, don't go driving around looking for the Red Star on the map either.

FILO_girl
09-09-2008, 05:20 PM
http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/images/2008evacmap.jpgim technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

YellerLotYeller
09-09-2008, 05:21 PM
I have a feeling Ike is going to hit near Freeport and he's going be a bad MF'er.

http://i67.photobucket.com/albums/h318/hollman/Galveston-Houston.gif

FILO_girl
09-09-2008, 05:23 PM
I have a feeling Ike is going to hit near Freeport and he's going be a bad MF'er.

http://i67.photobucket.com/albums/h318/hollman/Galveston-Houston.gif

Thats a repper!
LMAO!!

YellerLotYeller
09-09-2008, 05:25 PM
Thats a repper!
LMAO!!

I have waaaay too much time on my hands sometimes.

Señor Stan
09-09-2008, 06:14 PM
I have waaaay too much time on my hands sometimes.

Fixed it for you

http://i53.photobucket.com/albums/g67/senorstan/tina.jpg

Koolaid Time
09-09-2008, 10:33 PM
im technically texas city...would they evacuate us?

If Wednesday morning the models still say a Matagorda-Galveston landfall sometime Friday or Saturday I'd be getting the hell out of Dodge PDQ.

TexanSam
09-09-2008, 10:43 PM
Newest models...no real change

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

Koolaid Time
09-09-2008, 11:47 PM
Tommorrow afternoon will be crucial.....

It will be out in the Gulf and in the warm current and lets see if it goes from a 1 to a 3 by tomorrow at 6:00 PM

It better show down because people on the coast will need the time to board up and get out.

ccdude730
09-10-2008, 12:55 AM
i dont think people here in corpus are taking it real serious, but i guess you can include me with those people. i really dont think we are going to get much from it.

jaayteetx
09-10-2008, 12:56 AM
i dont think people here in corpus are taking it real serious, but i guess you can include me with those people. i really dont think we are going to get much from it.

they better start getting serious, just a funny feeling...

Marcus
09-10-2008, 08:52 AM
they better start getting serious, just a funny feeling...

Hmmm. . I got kind of a bad feeling about it. The UKMET model (the white line) has been the most accurate with this hurricane so far, and it's moving slow, more time for that trough out of the Rockies to grab it and pull it north.

So yeah, I don't think Corpus is going to get hit that bad. But if I lived in Freeport or anywhere near there, think I'd be quaking.

Cjeremy635
09-10-2008, 09:42 AM
At what intervals do the forecasts get updated? Is it every 4 hours or what?

Porky
09-10-2008, 10:02 AM
Hmmm. . I got kind of a bad feeling about it. The UKMET model (the white line) has been the most accurate with this hurricane so far, and it's moving slow, more time for that trough out of the Rockies to grab it and pull it north.

So yeah, I don't think Corpus is going to get hit that bad. But if I lived in Freeport or anywhere near there, think I'd be quaking.

Yup. The ukmet and Euro have been the trendsetters with this storm, and both have it moving in close to Freeport, maybe a bit south of there but close. That is what I have been basing my call of a slightly south of Freeport hit. It's not rocket science, I'm just following the trendsetters. That would be a good 75 miles or so up the coast from the nhc's call. We shall see.

Porky
09-10-2008, 10:05 AM
At what intervals do the forecasts get updated? Is it every 4 hours or what?

Every 6 hrs. Next forecast is out at 10:00 CT.

My guess is they won't move it much, but may again just inch it up the coast just a bit. Just a guess.

Brando
09-10-2008, 12:28 PM
i dont think people here in corpus are taking it real serious, but i guess you can include me with those people. i really dont think we are going to get much from it.

I hope your right.

Errant Hothy
09-10-2008, 12:41 PM
The evac orders have started:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hurricane/5993276.html

As the path of Hurricane Ike became clearer, Brazoria County Judge Joe King early today ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal residents and a voluntary evacuation of the rest of the county.

Prison officials also are meeting to decide whether inmates in some units in the county should be moved to facilities farther inland. Several units elsewhere along the Texas coast have begun moving prisoners to inland units as a precaution.

Residents of ZIP code 77541, which includes Freeport and other coastal regions, are subject to a mandatory evacuation. The evacuation for special-needs residents of 77541 began at 10 a.m., according to Steve Rosa, the county's assistant emergency management coordinator.

Bay City ISD is closed till Monday as well.

Brando
09-10-2008, 12:43 PM
http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b252/Amberlybutterfly/Texans%20Signatures%20and%20pics/ike.jpg

Hardcore Texan
09-10-2008, 12:46 PM
I was just looking at that on their website, us here in Austin will get some pretty strong winds if it takes that track. And I am supposed to be coming into Houston area Friday, everything is up in the air at this point.

Specnatz
09-10-2008, 01:22 PM
Just got a call from relatives in Port Lavaca ...... looks like I will be having company for the weekend.

eriadoc
09-10-2008, 02:15 PM
Here's the latest from my folks, as of 12:30PM CDT:

Hurricane Ike continues to get better organized on satellite and is now a borderline CAT 2 hurricane. Latest AF RECON reported 90 mph winds and 957 mb central pressure. We expect the winds will gradually increase to over 100 mph today and CAT 3 intensity tonight. A rapid intensification process is likely to result in Ike reaching CAT 4 and perhaps CAT 5 (briefly) intensity over the central Gulf on an approach to the TX coast late Friday night and early Saturday morning. The latest 12Z model suite has all shifted to the right and as such, we are lowering threat probabilities to the lower TX coast and east of Sabine Pass…increasing threat probabilities along the middle and upper TX coast. Our highest threat area is from 30 mi south of Matagorda Bay to Freeport, TX. This puts most of the Houston/Galveston on the “dirty” side of the storm (unlike Rita) resulting in heavy rain and very strong winds.

The latest GFDL model presents a particularly dangerous situation with a CAT 4 landfall right into Galveston late Friday night and Saturday morning. The implications of this are VERY significant and I expect NHC will adjust their track and intensity forecasts to be closer to the upper TX coast with landfall as a strong CAT 3 or borderline CAT 4. As a result I expect local emergency management to initiate mandatory evacuations along parts of the Upper Texas Coast including the Galveston area.

From an energy perspective…hurricane force winds are expected to impact the western Production area, but impacts should be limited to crude/natural gas shut-ins. Gas refineries along the upper TX coast are likely to be shut down and evacuated as a result of expected forecast changes later this afternoon.

With a storm of CAT 4 making landfall in the “Highest Threat” area listed below, winds along the upper TX coast are likely to be sustained at hurricane force with gusts to near 100 mph at Galveston. Sustained winds of 60-70 mph with gusts to 80-90 mph are possible in the Houston metro.

Individuals should rush their storm preparedness procedures to completion and review plans for possible evacuation in the event they are recommended by local media or emergency officials.

Brando
09-10-2008, 02:20 PM
When I was a kid and had no worries, I loved hurricanes, now I hate to even think about them when they form in the Gulf.:headhurts:

TexansLucky13
09-10-2008, 02:29 PM
When I was a kid and had no worries, I loved hurricanes, now I hate to even think about them when they form in the Gulf.:headhurts:

I still love them. When I was little in Alabama we would get hit constantly by hurricanes. We sat on the porch at my grandmothers house, and when the eye passed over, we would go out and play until it was gone. Those were the days.

Once I become a homeowner my opinion will undoubtedly change, but for now, I just smile.

P.S. - Yay! 4000 posts!

Brando
09-10-2008, 02:36 PM
I still love them. When I was little in Alabama we would get hit constantly by hurricanes. We sat on the porch at my grandmothers house, and when the eye passed over, we would go out and play until it was gone. Those were the days.

Once I become a homeowner my opinion will undoubtedly change, but for now, I just smile.

P.S. - Yay! 4000 posts!

You and me both!:doot:

It will change when you get older and if you have chidren.:) I remember sleeping through Hurricane Alicia.

Hervoyel
09-10-2008, 02:40 PM
You and me both!:doot:

It will change when you get older and if you have chidren.:) I remember sleeping through Hurricane Alicia.

I went out in it. I drove up to the local Del Taco and had a steak and cheese burrito while I watched signs and stuff blow down the street. It was fun.

Now, not so much.

TexansLucky13
09-10-2008, 02:42 PM
You and me both!:doot:

It will change when you get older and if you have chidren.:) I remember sleeping through Hurricane Alicia.

We both gained a point of Rep Power with our 4000th post. Interesting....

Yep, come to think of it, my sister didn't really like hurricanes. Maybe it's a guy thing.... just the extreme power of it. I don't know. I've seen trees get snapped in half with my own eyes, though, and that was cool. Kinda scary at the same time too.

Porky
09-10-2008, 02:44 PM
Here's the latest from my folks, as of 12:30PM CDT:

Thanks for posting that. Good info. I'm afraid I am going to be right. I had this just a tad south of Freeport when the NHC was south of Corpus. I am sticking to those guns ata this point. I don't think it will be as powerful as what this guy is saying though. But, you never know. I see a borderline cat 2/3 at landfall, maybe around 120mph. Still pretty darn bad even if that is correct.

Brando
09-10-2008, 02:47 PM
I went out in it. I drove up to the local Del Taco and had a steak and cheese burrito while I watched signs and stuff blow down the street. It was fun.

Now, not so much.


lol I remember my dad went to the store when the eye passed over Houston. We lived in the 34th/TC Jester area. Like you said it was fun but not now, especially since I live so close to the ocean.

HOU-TEX
09-10-2008, 02:49 PM
When I was a kid and had no worries, I loved hurricanes, now I hate to even think about them when they form in the Gulf.:headhurts:

I went out in it. I drove up to the local Del Taco and had a steak and cheese burrito while I watched signs and stuff blow down the street. It was fun.

Now, not so much.

I agree with y'all. Schools shutting down, devastation and debris is all fun and games until you grow up and have a family and home of your own.

BTW, Rep to Herv for the Del Taco reference. Del Taco>Taco Bell

Brando
09-10-2008, 02:57 PM
Schools shutting down, devastation and debris is all fun and games until you grow up and have a family and home of your own.



That was my favorite part!

Errant Hothy
09-10-2008, 03:00 PM
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

TexanSam
09-10-2008, 03:04 PM
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

Damn...they moved a little closer to Houston :(

YellerLotYeller
09-10-2008, 03:07 PM
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_model.gif

awww poo....if it hits around Freeport my house in Alvin will be an interesting place to be.

Texan_Bill
09-10-2008, 03:09 PM
awww poo....if it hits around Freeport my house in Alvin will be an interesting place to be.


You're darn right "awww poo"... Thats not really what I was hoping to see...

************************************

Del Taco>Taco Bell........... mmmmmm steak and cheese burrito at 2:00am.

YellerLotYeller
09-10-2008, 03:12 PM
I loved Del Taco! They served some delicious burgers too.

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 03:13 PM
Damn...they moved a little closer to Houston :(

And, in turn, a little closer to Lake Charles.

dammit

Brando
09-10-2008, 03:14 PM
You're darn right "awww poo"... Thats not really what I was hoping to see...

************************************

Del Taco>Taco Bell........... mmmmmm steak and cheese burrito at 2:00am.

I loved Del Taco! They served some delicious burgers too.

I guess I missed out on the Del Tacos, I don't remember them for some reason.

Hervoyel
09-10-2008, 03:33 PM
I agree with y'all. Schools shutting down, devastation and debris is all fun and games until you grow up and have a family and home of your own.

BTW, Rep to Herv for the Del Taco reference. Del Taco>Taco Bell

I miss Del Taco. It was way better than Taco Bell.

Vinny
09-10-2008, 03:35 PM
I miss Del Taco. It was way better than Taco Bell.
Taco Bueno was good too.

Errant Hothy
09-10-2008, 03:36 PM
Taco Bueno was good too.

What do you mean was? :bat:

I had the Bueno just yesterday.

Khari
09-10-2008, 03:37 PM
Taco Bueno was good too.

if u wanna spend all day in the bathroom :headhurts:

Showtime100
09-10-2008, 03:40 PM
You're darn right "awww poo"... Thats not really what I was hoping to see...

************************************

Del Taco>Taco Bell........... mmmmmm steak and cheese burrito at 2:00am.

Del Taco was to die for!!! They still around?? I used to leave Steak & Ale on my "lunch" hour and head down Mangum about a 1/4 mile they were so good.

Texan_Bill
09-10-2008, 03:41 PM
I guess I missed out on the Del Tacos, I don't remember them for some reason.

Back in the day, there were 3 fast food Tex-Mex places (this was even before Two Pesos)

Del Taco
Taco Smell Hell
Taco Bueno

***********************************

If this thing steers up towards Lake Charles, we should be groovy for Sunday.

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 03:44 PM
Back in the day, there were 3 fast food Tex-Mex places (this was even before Two Pesos)

Del Taco
Taco Smell Hell
Taco Bueno

***********************************

If this thing steers up towards Lake Charles, we should be groovy for Sunday.

Ummmmmmmm........

That's fine. It's not coming here. You can book it.

At any rate, my windows are boarded, my generator is full, and I've got food, water, diapers (not for me) and plenty of essentials.

Texan_Bill
09-10-2008, 03:47 PM
Ummmmmmmm........

That's fine. It's not coming here. You can book it.

At any rate, my windows are boarded, my generator is full, and I've got food, water, diapers (not for me) and plenty of essentials.

:gun: I forgot you were in the LC area.... :headhurts:

YellerLotYeller
09-10-2008, 04:03 PM
Del Taco was to die for!!! They still around?? I used to leave Steak & Ale on my "lunch" hour and head down Mangum about a 1/4 mile they were so good.


Yea my friend in San Diego eats it all time....when he mentions it, I just tell him I'm on my way to Whataburger.

Tedc
09-10-2008, 04:03 PM
if u wanna spend all day in the bathroom :headhurts:

What's wrong with that?

Signed,
Pam Babcock

HOU-TEX
09-10-2008, 04:06 PM
if u wanna spend all day in the bathroom :headhurts:

No kidding! Bueno, Two Pesos and Taco Cabana all give me "screen door" situations. :mcnugget:

Texan_Bill
09-10-2008, 04:08 PM
No kidding! Bueno, Two Pesos and Taco Cabana all give me "screen door" situations. :mcnugget:

You're on a freakin' roll today.... Rollin' better than Ike

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 04:20 PM
And, in turn, a little closer to Lake Charles.

dammit

One thing about Ike is that it's pretty damn big. Hurricane force winds will stretch out really far. Carla clone confirmed.

Ummmmmmmm........

That's fine. It's not coming here. You can book it.

At any rate, my windows are boarded, my generator is full, and I've got food, water, diapers (not for me) and plenty of essentials.

I know that you live there, but you never know. If this thing gets more powerful, it swings to the north even more. You saw how far it swung just today by becoming a Cat 2. Imagine if it went to Cat 3 on into Cat 4. A landfall in Galveston or further north (with the size of Ike) would be a worst case scenario for Lake Charles basically. Oh yeah, and add to the fact that Ike is moving slowly.

TEXANS84
09-10-2008, 04:23 PM
Scary, GFDL is usually the most accurate...and pointing right over Houston.

TexanSam
09-10-2008, 04:25 PM
Scary, GFDL is usually the most accurate...and pointing right over Houston.

The one guy I trust for hurricane information is Eric Berger, the SciGuy blogger on Chron.com. He has very good information. On his chat this afternoon someone asked if the GFDL is reliable and he answered

The GFDL is a reliable model, but others have handled the storm better so far (ie UKMET and ECMWF). They haven't jumped north this afternoon.

Of course hurricanes are always unpredictable so just because the other models have moved north doesn't mean it wont.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 04:26 PM
What will this do to the Texans game?

Texan_Bill
09-10-2008, 04:28 PM
What will this do to the Texans game?

Scare the poo out of those little purple scavenger birds.

HoustonFrog
09-10-2008, 04:32 PM
Taco Bueno was good too.

I was reading above and this is the first thing that popped into my mind. I loved Taco Bueno.

The one guy I trust for hurricane information is Eric Berger, the SciGuy blogger on Chron.com. He has very good information. On his chat this afternoon someone asked if the GFDL is reliable and he answered



Of course hurricanes are always unpredictable so just because the other models have moved north doesn't mean it wont.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

I go to him all the time. He knows his stuff on chron.com. Weird for that paper. :). Anyways, i had a trip to Brownwood, outside Abilene to see my father in laws new place out in the coutry so hopefully i can get out Friday and maybe shoot birds out there waiting this out.

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 04:34 PM
One thing about Ike is that it's pretty damn big. Hurricane force winds will stretch out really far. Carla clone confirmed.



I know that you live there, but you never know. If this thing gets more powerful, it swings to the north even more. You saw how far it swung just today by becoming a Cat 2. Imagine if it went to Cat 3 on into Cat 4. A landfall in Galveston or further north (with the size of Ike) would be a worst case scenario for Lake Charles basically. Oh yeah, and add to the fact that Ike is moving slowly.

Lots of 'ifs' associated with Ike yet.

We have plenty of provisions at the house. Did I mention that we also have two full gas tanks and bags packed ready to head off to family out of harms way?

Me, not stupid.

TexanSam
09-10-2008, 04:39 PM
My dad keeps insisting that he won't board up the windows if it hits Galveston...*sigh*

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 04:43 PM
My dad keeps insisting that he won't board up the windows if it hits Galveston...*sigh*

Why not? These things are nothing to play with. I can't imagine not taking every step possible to make sure one's self and property are secure.

jlam
09-10-2008, 04:43 PM
Anyone in the Richmond/Sugar Land area? I haven't been here all that long but as I haven't seen us on any of the evac maps and don't believe it to be a low lying flood zone, we're pretty sure we'll stay put.

Forward speed is still hovering around 8 m/hr. The longer this guy takes to get moving, the more time is allowed for the high pressure ridge which is causing the western motion to withdraw and allow the incoming trough to pick the storm up and bring up towards us. I think that's the difference in several of the models, such as the GFDL, NOGAPS, and HWRF, that are pointed more up the coastline from the ones aimed more around Matagorda Bay. Those southerly aimed models I don't think are picking up the potential of the that trough to impact the course. Still a good ways out though, so who knows?

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 04:46 PM
Still a good ways out though, so who knows?

Exactly.

But why not take this time to make preparations instead of getting donkey punched by a Cat 3 or 4 storm?

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 05:13 PM
Why not? These things are nothing to play with. I can't imagine not taking every step possible to make sure one's self and property are secure.

Okay, this would be crap for Lake Charles again. I know what my relatives went through with Rita, but found this VERY interesting (from ClutchFans):

Looking back at the historical track for Rita is interesting. Ike is in basically the EXACT same location as Rita was three days prior to landfall. It's track for the next day is very similar to the forecast track of Ike. After that, Rita made a much more steady northwesterly turn and made landfall at the Louisiana/Texas border.

Check these track models overlaid. Rita is faded - note it is less than 50 miles north of the projected landfall for Ike 3 days out.

http://www.zerozero8.com/ike_rita.jpg

Historical for Rita: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

And Ike is basically the same.

YellerLotYeller
09-10-2008, 05:19 PM
My dad keeps insisting that he won't board up the windows if it hits Galveston...*sigh*

I freaking hate boarding up windows. Two of my neighbors already boarded up this afternoon...I guess I get to hear the table saw symphony tonight.

GlassHalfFull
09-10-2008, 05:22 PM
Now saying cat 4. Crap.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 05:34 PM
Okay, but a Freeport to TX/LA landfall is looking a LOT more likely now. No two storms are the same, but the same conditions for Ike happened with Rita. Ike is at the same spot now (three days before landfall) that Rita was. In fact, both were Wednesdays. This was about the time people started leaving Houston and it was announced we had no school for a week (Katy ISD).

Ole Miss Texan
09-10-2008, 05:40 PM
From the last (minute distance) measurement it was going straight towards N.O. (again very short distance). It looks like they have it hugging the underwater ridge off the coast of mexico and veering left and then an upwards turn towards the port oconner area.

i'm hoping it doesn't veer along the ridge, hits the deep water and starts heading north from the get go. Here's to hoping from a guy that knows jack about hurricanes though.

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 06:03 PM
Okay, this would be crap for Lake Charles again. I know what my relatives went through with Rita, but found this VERY interesting (from ClutchFans):



Historical for Rita: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

And Ike is basically the same.

Eerie similarity. Do I anticipate it doing the same thing? No. Does the thought linger? Yes. Will my family and I be prepared for all eventualities? Yes.

CTWade
09-10-2008, 06:09 PM
I don't like Ike. It has been intensifying faster than expected and the cone has been inching closer towards Houston for a while now. Plus there is the giant wind field it has... Houston can be a fair on either side of it and still receive a lot of nasty.

Guess I will have to watch the news tonight.

TEXANS84
09-10-2008, 06:10 PM
Okay, but a Freeport to TX/LA landfall is looking a LOT more likely now.

Wait until the 6pm discussion to form. Also, 10pm discussion and 6am discussion (NOAA) will show somewhat a smaller cone area.

Reguardless if it hits Freeport, Houston will be on the dirty side. I'm trying my hardest to cancel my Atlanta trip flying out tomorrow and returning Friday night at 10 (right smack when the Cane' is coming in).

swtbound07
09-10-2008, 06:18 PM
i am getting the hell out of texas city, circa friday morning

eriadoc
09-10-2008, 06:21 PM
The NHC just updated their advisory and has upgraded Ike to a CAT 2 with 95 mph winds. They are calling for landfall as a CAT 4 major hurricane with winds of 135 mph gusts to 175 mph just NORTH of Matagorda Bay. This continues to put Houston/Galveston in a more serious threat of damaging winds and high coastal surge with the storm. Landfall late Friday night/Saturday morning.

I'm off to school.

Thorn
09-10-2008, 06:24 PM
Doesn't look like we are going to miss this one. Crap, and I'm on the ride out team at work.

hollywood_texan
09-10-2008, 06:25 PM
I have tickets to Astros on Friday and Saturday, then the Texans on Sunday.

I am flying from LA to Hobby, arriving at 1:35 pm on Friday.

My plan is be on that plane. The only thing that will stop me is a cancelled flight or games.

Thorn
09-10-2008, 06:27 PM
I have tickets to Astros on Friday and Saturday, then the Texans on Sunday.

I am flying from LA to Hobby, arriving at 1:35 pm on Friday.

My plan is be on that plane. The only thing that will stop me is a cancelled flight or games.


I'd think twice about your plans on coming here if I was you.

Showtime100
09-10-2008, 06:29 PM
I have tickets to Astros on Friday and Saturday, then the Texans on Sunday.

I am flying from LA to Hobby, arriving at 1:35 pm on Friday.

My plan is be on that plane. The only thing that will stop me is a cancelled flight or games.

Best of luck, man. You going to put something on youtube like the Raider thing after you get home?

Sal Rosenberg
09-10-2008, 06:32 PM
I'd think twice about your plans on coming here if I was you.

:goodpost:

jerek
09-10-2008, 06:44 PM
I have tickets to Astros on Friday and Saturday, then the Texans on Sunday.

I am flying from LA to Hobby, arriving at 1:35 pm on Friday.

My plan is be on that plane. The only thing that will stop me is a cancelled flight or games.

Can I stay at your place while you're gone then? The wife and I will be on a plane tomorrow ... sister-in-law lives in Huntington and I would *much* rather be chillin on a beach than sitting in the dark listening to the wind and rain for three days!

hollywood_texan
09-10-2008, 06:47 PM
I'd think twice about your plans on coming here if I was you.


If my flight isn't cancelled, I don't get a refund and the chances of using the credit is unlikely before the expiration.

Meanwhile, I have purchased tickets to 3 sporting events.

So let's say I bail out, I could be stuck with an airline credit and tickets to events that happen anyway.

I can handle a flight refund and eating the tickets I bought. But, if it's safe to fly in hours before IKE hits, then I'll take my chances and see what happens.

Besides, if things are that bad, why haven't the Texans and Astros cancelled or moved games? What is taking so long?

hollywood_texan
09-10-2008, 06:48 PM
Can I stay at your place while you're gone then? The wife and I will be on a plane tomorrow ... sister-in-law lives in Huntington and I would *much* rather be chillin on a beach than sitting in the dark listening to the wind and rain for three days!

I live in a very small, dirty apartment in Hollywood.

You probably wouldn't like it.

Thorn
09-10-2008, 06:52 PM
If my flight isn't cancelled, I don't get a refund and the chances of using the credit is unlikely before the expiration.

Meanwhile, I have purchased tickets to 3 sporting events.

So let's say I bail out, I could be stuck with an airline credit and tickets to events that happen anyway.

I can handle a flight refund and eating the tickets I bought. But, if it's safe to fly in hours before IKE hits, then I'll take my chances and see what happens.

Besides, if things are that bad, why haven't the Texans and Astros cancelled or moved games? What is taking so long?

Dude, this is projected to be a Cat 4 when it hits just south of Freeport. The last place you wanna be this weekend is Houston. It might hit somewhere else, it might not, but it sure as ain't worth coming to Houston for.

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 07:00 PM
I kind of want to go into Houston for this thing. I don't know why. Rita was kind of exciting for me...

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 07:04 PM
http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll274/MapTeam/2qnctvn.gif

Brando
09-10-2008, 07:06 PM
http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll274/MapTeam/2qnctvn.gif


:mcnugget:

hollywood_texan
09-10-2008, 07:06 PM
Dude, this is projected to be a Cat 4 when it hits just south of Freeport. The last place you wanna be this weekend is Houston. It might hit somewhere else, it might not, but it sure as ain't worth coming to Houston for.


Here you man, but I have a lot money into this trip.

If they don't cancel my flight Friday morning and the games (Astros and Texans) are not cancelled or rescheduled, maybe it isn't that bad?

If those things are taken care of, I'll stay in LA.

TheIronDuke
09-10-2008, 07:09 PM
Well I'm just glad that I moved up here to Tomball from League City 2 months ago. I'm good hunkered down here in the woods.

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 07:20 PM
Well I'm just glad that I moved up here to Tomball from League City 2 months ago. I'm good hunkered down here in the woods.

Just watch out for trees. Those are the only things that worries me.

TexansLucky13
09-10-2008, 07:22 PM
Well I'm just glad that I moved up here to Tomball from League City 2 months ago. I'm good hunkered down here in the woods.

Just watch out for trees. Those are the only things that worries me.

Yea... Trees are the #1 thing you need to worry about unless you on the coast.

TheIronDuke
09-10-2008, 07:25 PM
Just watch out for trees. Those are the only things that worries me.

That's the only thing I'm worried about too. Lots of big ass trees all around me here.

Oh, and I'm worried about my poor vegetable garden that I just started that is doing very well so far.

TexansLucky13
09-10-2008, 07:28 PM
Oh, and I'm worried about my poor vegetable garden that I just started that is doing very well so far.

You remind me of someone....

http://www.geocities.com/EnchantedForest/Glade/5063/rabbit.jpg

:tease:

CTWade
09-10-2008, 07:30 PM
If my flight isn't cancelled, I don't get a refund and the chances of using the credit is unlikely before the expiration.

Meanwhile, I have purchased tickets to 3 sporting events.

So let's say I bail out, I could be stuck with an airline credit and tickets to events that happen anyway.

I can handle a flight refund and eating the tickets I bought. But, if it's safe to fly in hours before IKE hits, then I'll take my chances and see what happens.

Besides, if things are that bad, why haven't the Texans and Astros cancelled or moved games? What is taking so long?

Because uncertainty yet remains. One major model, the GFDL, thinks it's going into Houston as a major storm. But another big model, the UKMET, think's its going to hit well south as a minor hurricane. And the NHC is kinda favoring the UKMET right now, since it has performed better on Ike so far.

However, the tea leafs, such as intensification, slow movement, a cracking high pressure system, and a eerie similarity to Rita's path, are pointing to a more northern landfall as increasingly likely.

We should get a definite go/no-go for the Houston area in the next several hours as the next batch models finish their runs. If the models follow the GFDL north then the Houston area will start issuing evacuations around Thursday afternoon or evening. Those who are in, or who plan to be in, Houston during the weekend should watch this storm until we are given the all clear.

toronto
09-10-2008, 07:30 PM
Best to all of you....

gonna be a bad one....

:(

TheIronDuke
09-10-2008, 07:36 PM
You remind me of someone....

http://www.geocities.com/EnchantedForest/Glade/5063/rabbit.jpg

:tease:

LOL

It's just the first time I've ever tilled land, planted seeds, and did all that work and I've actually got some squash, green beans, spinach, broccoli, and carrots growing and now this stupid hurricane is going to ruin my harvest. Now my family will starve. :(

brakos82
09-10-2008, 07:42 PM
http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll274/MapTeam/2qnctvn.gif

That reminds me of my ex-girlfriend... :mcnugget:

toronto
09-10-2008, 07:46 PM
That reminds me of my ex-girlfriend... :mcnugget:

reminds me of my wife :bat:

Double Barrel
09-10-2008, 07:47 PM
That reminds me of my ex-girlfriend... :mcnugget:

Her name was Ike? :um:

brakos82
09-10-2008, 07:49 PM
Her name was Ike? :um:
No... her name was Christine... but the EYE! :francis:

TexansLucky13
09-10-2008, 07:54 PM
LOL

It's just the first time I've ever tilled land, planted seeds, and did all that work and I've actually got some squash, green beans, spinach, broccoli, and carrots growing and now this stupid hurricane is going to ruin my harvest. Now my family will starve. :(

Oh wow, that's a big garden. I hope the storm doesn't do too much to it! Next Spring I am going make a small garden and grow some tomatoes and jalapeños.

DiapHer
09-10-2008, 08:16 PM
Sorry for this temporary station break from the Hurricane Watch Party....you all are in my thoughts and prayers as I continue to track the storm, my nephew is suppose to be flying down to Houston Friday.

~~~~~~~~~

My question is about these Steak and Cheese Burritos you are talking about from Del Taco. I lived in Dallas from 1980-1987 I can't remember the name of the fast food restaurant that I would drive through or go into daily and I was wondering if this wasn't the same place. I loved the Steak and Cheese Burritos but they also had a Ham and Cheese Burrito...with thin sliced ham with spicy cheese and shredded lettuce that I continue to this day to recreate. They also had iced down long neck bottles of beer you could grab while in line waiting for your order.

Any help down memory lane?????? (Showtime.. no telling stories about the trips to Bennagins)

Thorn
09-10-2008, 08:21 PM
Any one else besides me having problem with wunderground.com not showing projections. They should have had the updates for the 7PM data by now. StormPulse does. They don't look a whole lot different than they did earlier today, so that's actually good news as that keeps landfall further south down the coastline.

FILO_girl
09-10-2008, 08:29 PM
LOL@ whoever tagged this as 'oh shit'.
:shades:

Thorn
09-10-2008, 08:36 PM
weather underground finally updated it's projections. I'm to lazy to save the pic to my site, so they have two tracks headed to Galveston, three for Corpus, and one to Brownsville.

b0ng
09-10-2008, 08:43 PM
weather underground finally updated it's projections. I'm to lazy to save the pic to my site, so they have two tracks headed to Galveston, three for Corpus, and one to Brownsville.

http://i454.photobucket.com/albums/qq263/b0ngerz/at200809_ensmodel.gif

:)

Hardcore Texan
09-10-2008, 08:45 PM
I just got off the phone with my Mom, who lives 8 miles north of Smith Point, 15 miles south of Anahuac. She just told me she is not leaving no matter what and she has made up her mind. My dad can't really evacuate being on home hospice unless they can get an ambulance. Not liking this at all.

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 08:51 PM
I just got the go ahead to close our operation down tonight. All workers are to take whatever steps they deem necessary to secure life and property.

As for me, I'm throwing the oscars in the pond outside and hauling the family to New Iberia for a few days of beer drinking and flatulence.

swtbound07
09-10-2008, 08:51 PM
I just got off the phone with my Mom, who lives 8 miles north of Smith Point, 15 miles south of Anahuac. She just told me she is not leaving no matter what and she has made up her mind. My dad can't really evacuate being on home hospice unless they can get an ambulance. Not liking this at all.

its goign to be allright hardcore. Have a little faith. Maybe the power of our positive thinking can curve this thing. All the best from the SWT family. we're pulling for u

Hardcore Texan
09-10-2008, 08:55 PM
its goign to be allright hardcore. Have a little faith. Maybe the power of our positive thinking can curve this thing. All the best from the SWT family. we're pulling for u

Thanks, not to mention lots of prayer.

Honoring Earl 34
09-10-2008, 08:57 PM
I just got off the phone with my Mom, who lives 8 miles north of Smith Point, 15 miles south of Anahuac. She just told me she is not leaving no matter what and she has made up her mind. My dad can't really evacuate being on home hospice unless they can get an ambulance. Not liking this at all.

My first hope is that it's no where near them . The 2nd thing is if he's he on a resperator , the electricity may be a problem .

We'll revert back to the first . Go board up the house , get provisions , and that's all you can do .

I've been through the hospice thing and just wish you the best of luck .

HoustonFrog
09-10-2008, 09:00 PM
We are trying to decide right now. We got out early and easiky last time and had a trip planned already to my father in laws in Brownwood, outside Abilene. We still might but may just fly out tomorrow because it would be easier. I could drink a beer and dove hunt on the land. I have family in Austin and Dallas and Ft. Worth but the storm will just follow us there. Brownwood is westr of that but good enough probably.

SheTexan
09-10-2008, 09:18 PM
Thanks, not to mention lots of prayer.

Hardcore! I'll be praying for your Mom and Dad. Maybe old IKE will just swing his happy butt on down South!!

Koolaid Time
09-10-2008, 09:54 PM
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

New models coming out soon....but if its a high 3/low 4 the area between Matagorda and Freeport will be messed up.

Marcus
09-10-2008, 10:43 PM
Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel is on the Galvestion Sea Wall.

Now, it's offically time to go "OH SH!T!"

The1ApplePie
09-10-2008, 10:48 PM
I imagine the drive back from work from downtown back to Spring in the evening will be fun:mcnugget:

Texans_Chick
09-10-2008, 10:54 PM
This is really bad. Everybody who prays should pray. (And maybe some of you who think about praying might consider it).

This is one of the most frightening blog posts I've read in my life:

Dr. Jeff Master's Blog: Ike intensifying explosively (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809)

The mayor of Galveston sounds like a bonehead talking about evacuations. If they wait until tomorrow for people to get out of dodge, it may be too late.

This is very bad. Because it is so hard to figure out where it is going to go, by the time people figure out to evacuate, people might be stuck on the road.

Just got back from the gas station. It was packed.

Corrosion
09-10-2008, 10:56 PM
Ike evacuations begin; Houston could get hit

Storm track might shift and late Friday landfall is now possible

Link (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482/)


As Ike strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds on Wednesday, officials weighing whether to evacuate millions of South Texans were told that Ike could make landfall even sooner, possibly late Friday night, and in the Houston-Galveston area — not closer to the border with Mexico as earlier forecast.

Looks like it might turn our way .... Might be a good idea to have a few days worth of food and beer on hand just in case.

HoustonFrog
09-10-2008, 11:15 PM
This is really bad. Everybody who prays should pray. (And maybe some of you who think about praying might consider it).

This is one of the most frightening blog posts I've read in my life:

Dr. Jeff Master's Blog: Ike intensifying explosively (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809)

The mayor of Galveston sounds like a bonehead talking about evacuations. If they wait until tomorrow for people to get out of dodge, it may be too late.

This is very bad. Because it is so hard to figure out where it is going to go, by the time people figure out to evacuate, people might be stuck on the road.

Just got back from the gas station. It was packed.

Agree. I got water and gas at lunch today and I usually make fun of the craziness of it all. I don't like this path.

drewmar74
09-10-2008, 11:15 PM
This is really bad. Everybody who prays should pray. (And maybe some of you who think about praying might consider it).

This is one of the most frightening blog posts I've read in my life:

Dr. Jeff Master's Blog: Ike intensifying explosively (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809)

The mayor of Galveston sounds like a bonehead talking about evacuations. If they wait until tomorrow for people to get out of dodge, it may be too late.

This is very bad. Because it is so hard to figure out where it is going to go, by the time people figure out to evacuate, people might be stuck on the road.

Just got back from the gas station. It was packed.

They should have had y'all moving north and west about two days ago. I just finished boarding up my downstairs and will work on the upstairs starting now. I'll be praying for y'all. Y'all do the same for us.

Thorn
09-10-2008, 11:43 PM
The only good thing to think about right now is, is that is Ike keeps shifting at the rate it's going, it'll make landfall east of Galveston. Maybe. Tomorrow's gonna be an important day. I can't leave Houston, I have to ride it out, but I'll be OK. It's the cat I'm worried about, but not much I can do at this point except worry.

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 11:44 PM
Here's a good overview:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/satellite/north_atlantic/hiresir/0809110015.jpg

Animation: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?satellite+jpg+10tttt+1200+1600+north_atla ntic+hiresir

You see that blob out there to the right? That's Josephine trying to get itself back together.

Sal Rosenberg
09-10-2008, 11:46 PM
Here's a good overview:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/satellite/north_atlantic/hiresir/0809110015.jpg

Animation: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?satellite+jpg+10tttt+1200+1600+north_atla ntic+hiresir

You see that blob out there to the right? That's Josephine trying to get itself back together.

Is there a list of business or school closings anywhere?

TexanSam
09-10-2008, 11:49 PM
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Good evening. The track forecast for Ike tonight has edged significantly closer to the Houston-Galveston area, now bringing the storm ashore near Freeport.

As I wrote a few years ago, for Houston's sake, this is just about the worst possible place a storm could make landfall.

If the forecast remains centered upon Brazoria County and especially Freeport -- and of course that's a big if -- I would expect widespread evacuations in southeast Harris County and Galveston County to be called Thursday morning. I am not one to make editorial comments, but I am surprised that Galveston County has not yet called for a mandatory evacuation.

There will, of course, be fluctuations in the forecast location during the next two days, prior to landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Areas from south of Corpus Christi to the Texas-Louisiana border remain potential landfall sites. But as of now Houston couldn't be much more at risk than it is.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/031306W_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/031306W_sm.gif)

GuerillaBlack
09-10-2008, 11:53 PM
Is there a list of business or school closings anywhere?

The best list: http://blogs.chron.com/closings/

michaelm
09-11-2008, 12:07 AM
reminds me of my wife :bat:

Q: What do women and hurricanes have in common? A:When they come, they're wet and wild, and when they leave, they take your house and car! ..

Sal Rosenberg
09-11-2008, 12:18 AM
Q: What do women and hurricanes have in common? A:When they come, they're wet and wild, and when they leave, they take your house and car! ..

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080910_tnt_school_closings_ike.60c88e9a.html

CTWade
09-11-2008, 12:33 AM
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/

Folks, we have giant, doubled eyed, rapidly intensifying Frankenstein hurricane out there that is currently aimed at Houston's general area and is about two days away from landfall. It's wind field is pretty crazy, something like hurricane force winds out to a hundred miles away from center, which is, I think, far larger than Rita's. So even if it continues to slide north like Rita did we could encounter nasty weather even on the 'clean' side of it.

This will only make the decision that will likely have to be made in the morning more difficult for those of us coastal areas. Mandatory evacuations seem likely come sunrise... and I doubt I'm the only one that doesn't cherish the thought of another Rita-like exodus.

Bad news all around.

Thorn
09-11-2008, 12:36 AM
I wish I could sleep. All the new data comes out at 1AM, and if we are lucky, it will have shifted even more up the coast. The more it shifts toward Galveston the more it's likely to make landfall east of Galveston on Friday, sparing us some of the worst of the wind.

jaayteetx
09-11-2008, 02:46 AM
Mother Tucker, son of a witch, gawd dam it, i HATE hurricanes. Chit!

michaelm
09-11-2008, 03:06 AM
From LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion (Weather Underground):

"The models have done a very poor job over the last week of handling the mid-latitude troughs. From as far back as when Ike was in the Bahamas, the models have tried to turn the storm north. It is not unreasonable to assume that they are also misjudging the current trough forecasted to weaken the ridge around the time Ike makes landfall. That would mean that Ike will either make landfall at it's current forecasted position and continue heading west-northwest into central TX or even make landfall a bit south of it's current forecast landfall point".

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/show.html

I have family in Corpus, and they seem to be operating as if they are out of the woods. I hope that people to the south don't become complacent now, thinking that this thing is definitely going to turn northward.
Personally, I think it's going to turn more northward than most forecasts, but people to the south need to remain vigilant.