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View Full Version : Texans as the 6th wild card? Not unreasonable! check it out


texansfan88
12-21-2004, 11:22 AM
A reminder of which teams to root for next week!

As you may know, the Texans aren't technically eliminated from the playoffs. Here is the scenario needed for the Texans to play in the post-season.

Week 16
Houston beats Jacksonville
Tennessee beats Denver
Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
San Francisco beats Buffalo

Week 17
Houston beats Cleveland
Miami beats Baltimore
Pittsburgh beats Buffalo
Oakland beats Jacksonville
Indianapolis beats Denver

If these games end with the above results then Houston, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Denver, and Baltimore would all be tied 8-8. The first tie-break is 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. Of the five teams, only Houston and Jax are in the same division. Jacksonville is eliminated on head-to-head with Houston.

Down to HOU, DEN, BUF, and BAL.

The second tie-breaker is 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) This is not applicable as no team has beaten all other teams or lost to all other teams.

The third tie-breaker is 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston 7-5; Denver, Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Houston would get the spot.

Kansas City and Cincinnati are also 6-8 right now, but it doesn't matter what they do. Even if either KC or Cincinnati were to win out, neither would beat Houston in the tie-breakers.

Cincinnati would lose out to Baltimore in the first tie-breaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they went 1-1 in the series, but Cincy is 2-4 in their division while Baltimore is 3-3.

If KC wins out, KC would beat Denver in the first tiebreaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they split the season series, but KC would have a better division record (4-2) to Denver (3-3).

Replaying the above scenario with KC instead of Denver gets the following:

Between HOU, KC, BUF, and BAL there were no sweeps, so it would go to the third tie-breaker: 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston and Kansas City 7-5; Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Baltimore and Buffalo would be eliminated. Then the tie-breaks would start over between Houston and KC.

Tiebreak 1 does not apply as they are in different divisions. Houston wins on tiebreak two: 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Because Houston was 1-0 against KC in the regular season, Houston would get the playoff spot.


Thanks to worgl for this work

kevinjagsfan
12-21-2004, 11:23 AM
that's quite a few upsets that have to happen

texansfan88
12-21-2004, 11:24 AM
Other than the Buffalo/San Fran game, which of those really seem unwinnable for the teams?

TheOgre
12-21-2004, 11:31 AM
The Buffalo/San Fran game is really the showstopper.

texansfan88
12-21-2004, 11:35 AM
Lets just break it down

Houston/Jacksonville-will be the game of the AFC next week. If the Texans can play like they did in the first meeting against them, they should be able to pull it out in a tough matchup.

Tennessee/Denver- Denver looked like **** last week and Tennessee at home on primetime with the way that offense is playing will be tough to stop.

Pittsburgh/Baltimore- Pitt wants to win this game, Baltimore needs to win this game. Pittsburgh is just too good defensively to let Baltimore do anything against them. Pitt can take this, but sets up a HUGE problem week 17...read on

Buffalo/San Francisco-This is going to be the biggest problem for the Texans chances. Remember, there is such parity in the nfl that anyone can win on any given week (Dolphins last night). It'll be interesting to see the Bills without McGahee and thats why I think SF has a shot.

week 17

Houston/Cleveland- Assuming everything goes plan this sunday, the fans, coaches, and players know that they're still in the hunt and can possibly clinch with another weird week. Cleveland is just plain terrible. They might be the worst team since the 1-15 panthers of 2001. Texans will be scoreboard watching all game long.

Miami/Baltimore- After looking at 3 games (Baltimore/KC, Baltimore/Indy, Baltimore/Cleveland (week1), the Ravens struggle to put up anything against relatively bad defenses. Miami is not a walk through game. They proved over the last couple of weeks that they can be a trap for any team hoping to get in the playoffs. should be fun to watch either way.

Pittsburgh/Buffalo-Okay, here's the problem I spoke of. Pitt needs to win week 16 if the Texans still want a shot. If they beat Baltimore, which the Texans need, they will have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. That means more than likely, Cowher is going to rest up all of his starters and keep them fresh for the playoff game which is much more important to him. Still, I feel without McGahee, and Big Ben playing at least 1/2 of the game, the Steelers can take this thing.

Oakland/Jacksonville- tough to call. This game is in Oakland and Kerry Collins has been on fire lately. That defense is not a pushover either, they have quality talent and will likely try to end the season on a great note, beating the Jaguars and ending playoff hopes.

Indianapolis/Denver- Depending on how long Manning plays this one will determine the winner of the game. I just don't see the Colts losing again this year.

Blake
12-21-2004, 11:37 AM
I think you are getting a little too excited about this. I would just focus on the Texans winning next week.

kevinjagsfan
12-21-2004, 11:39 AM
Other than the Buffalo/San Fran game, which of those really seem unwinnable for the teams?

tenessee over denver

miami over baltimore

oakland over jax

texansfan88
12-21-2004, 11:42 AM
I'm not excited, in fact i dont think it will happen. but it is not that unreal of a possibility. now if everything goes to plan this week, then I will be excited, but the odds of that happening are about 1:2

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
12-21-2004, 12:08 PM
all of this is just wishful thinking. there is no chance all of those teams lose.

texansfan88
12-21-2004, 12:20 PM
so you're saying that at least one of those teams is just going to flat out have no shot at winning? why even play the game then? Like I said, not likely, but it's a better shot than Oakland, Tennessee, Miami, San Francisco, CIncinnati, or Cleveland have right now

kevinjagsfan
12-21-2004, 12:23 PM
so you're saying that at least one of those teams is just going to flat out have no shot at winning? why even play the game then? Like I said, not likely, but it's a better shot than Oakland, Tennessee, Miami, San Francisco, CIncinnati, or Cleveland have right now

ok, so I won't say that the jax/oakland game is "in the bag" (don't want to jinx it) but I dont think that Miami and tenessee are strong enough

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
12-21-2004, 12:24 PM
No chance Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Kansas City all lose their last 2 games. Absolutely NO CHANCE.

Doug
12-21-2004, 12:26 PM
I wouldn't make any comments on the Dolphins after last night. LOL

texansfan88
12-21-2004, 12:27 PM
No chance Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Kansas City all lose their last 2 games. Absolutely NO CHANCE.
again, says who? are the other teams just supposed to let them win so that that wont happen?

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
12-21-2004, 12:29 PM
5 teams have to lose the rest of their games for us to even have a chance at the playoffs. Not gonna happen.

Lucky
12-21-2004, 12:55 PM
Reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd : Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary : I'd say more like one in a million.
Lloyd : So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes!

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
12-21-2004, 01:00 PM
Reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd : Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary : I'd say more like one in a million.
Lloyd : So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes!




lol, exactly. I sure hope these people don't gamble.

Doug
12-21-2004, 01:01 PM
Reminds me of the scene from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me ending up together?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd : Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary : I'd say more like one in a million.
Lloyd : So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes!
That's priceless! :rofl:

TheOgre
12-21-2004, 01:13 PM
No chance Buffalo, Baltimore, Denver, Jacksonville and Kansas City all lose their last 2 games. Absolutely NO CHANCE.

We don't care about KC. They don't matter.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
12-21-2004, 01:46 PM
We don't care about KC. They don't matter.




You're right. We have the head to head tie breaker with them. This is all a moot point though since the Broncos, Jags, Ravens or Bills will win at least 1 game in the next 2 weeks.

redlion
12-21-2004, 02:32 PM
I think you are getting a little too excited about this. I would just focus on the Texans winning next week.


I agree...

texansfan88
12-21-2004, 02:35 PM
I'm not excited about anything, I just showed people what it would take to get in and said that it isn't unreasonable to think that those teams could lose. Plus, I'm at work, you aren't allowed to get excited

Speedy
12-22-2004, 12:34 AM
all of this is just wishful thinking. there is no chance all of those teams lose.Highly unlikely, yeah. But coming off watching what the Astros just did....ya never know.

And I don't think anybody really thinks it will happen, but the point is, we're going into week 16 and have still not been eliminated from playoff contention.

shinerbock_girl
12-22-2004, 05:52 AM
Right now i just want them to beat the Jags and take them out of the playoffs...Thats more realistic then us making it....And it would give the Texans more creditabliity next year...That is if they take out the Browns too.. :bguitar:

Txnpride
12-22-2004, 10:08 AM
A reminder of which teams to root for next week!

As you may know, the Texans aren't technically eliminated from the playoffs. Here is the scenario needed for the Texans to play in the post-season.

Week 16
Houston beats Jacksonville
Tennessee beats Denver
Pittsburgh beats Baltimore
San Francisco beats Buffalo

Week 17
Houston beats Cleveland
Miami beats Baltimore
Pittsburgh beats Buffalo
Oakland beats Jacksonville
Indianapolis beats Denver

If these games end with the above results then Houston, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Denver, and Baltimore would all be tied 8-8. The first tie-break is 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. Of the five teams, only Houston and Jax are in the same division. Jacksonville is eliminated on head-to-head with Houston.

Down to HOU, DEN, BUF, and BAL.

The second tie-breaker is 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) This is not applicable as no team has beaten all other teams or lost to all other teams.

The third tie-breaker is 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston 7-5; Denver, Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Houston would get the spot.

Kansas City and Cincinnati are also 6-8 right now, but it doesn't matter what they do. Even if either KC or Cincinnati were to win out, neither would beat Houston in the tie-breakers.

Cincinnati would lose out to Baltimore in the first tie-breaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they went 1-1 in the series, but Cincy is 2-4 in their division while Baltimore is 3-3.

If KC wins out, KC would beat Denver in the first tiebreaker 1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.; they split the season series, but KC would have a better division record (4-2) to Denver (3-3).

Replaying the above scenario with KC instead of Denver gets the following:

Between HOU, KC, BUF, and BAL there were no sweeps, so it would go to the third tie-breaker: 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Given the above results, at the end of the season the AFC winning percentage would be: Houston and Kansas City 7-5; Baltimore, and Buffalo 5-7. Baltimore and Buffalo would be eliminated. Then the tie-breaks would start over between Houston and KC.

Tiebreak 1 does not apply as they are in different divisions. Houston wins on tiebreak two: 2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) Because Houston was 1-0 against KC in the regular season, Houston would get the playoff spot.


Thanks to worgl for this workThats about as good as a chance as it snowing in Texas on Christmas........wait a minute,I think they are calling for a chance of snow this weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :shocked

Beastlyman2003
12-22-2004, 11:09 AM
HELL YEA! I have never seen snow and my birthhday is Dec. 25! Suge-NA!

TexanBacker93
12-22-2004, 06:24 PM
I don't think the Broncos, Jags, Ravens, and Bills will all win a game over the last 2 weeks. It's doubtful that all 4 will lose their last 2, but it is still possible. If the Texans win out and get beat because one of those teams wins a game at least they'll go down with a chance. It's the NFL and odder things have happened. The Bills/Niners and Dolphins/Ravens are probably the toughest games out there, but as someone else pointed out the Broncos look like crud and the Jags have a couple of tough matchups. At least it's interesting in the final 2 weeks.

ledzeppelin229
12-22-2004, 06:36 PM
We have 2 games left, what have we got to lose by thinking about the 1% chance? "Oh we'll just be disappointed", What's more disappointing is people giving up, or telling others to give up. Yea it's a longshot, but this team plays for a championship whether its year 3 or year 30 and as long as there is a slim chance, the only think we have to lose is what everyone already assumes is lost anyway.

Texizgreat
12-22-2004, 09:31 PM
My only thought to all this is............... If we can not WALK into the playoffs, wild card or otherwise. what is the point on hoping that this other team looses or this team win for us to move up a spot. We will get to the play offs when we DESERVE it not when another team flakes out. We need to get our last two Wins and what happens happens.


But if we make it! Cool!

ledzeppelin229
12-22-2004, 10:32 PM
Playoffs = More Texans games for me to watch

More Texans games for me to watch = Good

I don't care who deserves what if they found a way to sneak in.

Hervoyel
12-22-2004, 10:59 PM
I think that the only way I give this any consideration is if the scenario, as described by texansfan88 plays itself out through this coming weekend. Then, in the final week of the season I'll be thinking of this. Right now I don't really much care of the Texans get lucky and find themselves in a playoff game.

I just don't think the Texans are ready for the playoffs yet. This season, if we manage to beat our last two opponents then we'll have beaten bad teams and lost (sometimes badly) to good teams. It's almost creepy how clear the line is between the opponenets we've beaten and the ones who've beaten us. That tells me that we're first round fodder. Yes, anything can happen. The long odds, miracle stuff doesn't happen very often though.

Txnpride
12-23-2004, 11:00 AM
HELL YEA! I have never seen snow and my birthhday is Dec. 25! Suge-NA!I just had mine this past 14th, Happy B-Day Texan fan

Oilers/Texans
12-23-2004, 11:53 AM
I'm excited about it. Why would anyone not be??? There is a real chance with just two games left to play for everybody. This team could be there at the end. Nobody is talking about the Texans nationally, so it would be a surprise to most people. Some teams must lose out and we must win out, but it is just two games, it's not like four or five. And think of this, if Houston makes the playoffs they will have a MNF game next year.

Jagsbch
12-23-2004, 12:10 PM
I love the optomism :banana:

warpig
12-23-2004, 12:10 PM
Buffalo lose to San Fran. Let us think about it. Buffalo d againist San Fran o. Let us look at this. WAKE UP and get out of Dreamland. Just can not see it.

TexansTrueFan
12-23-2004, 12:22 PM
yeah i think the texans COULD make the wild card, but it likely wont happen ! San fran cant win that game !

edo783
12-23-2004, 01:42 PM
I think that's what the Pats thought about Miami. Any given Sunday. However, the odds are WAY against it happening.

TexansTrueFan
12-23-2004, 01:47 PM
ok its very unlikly to happen but it still COULD happen ! all i want for christmas is san to beat buff and all the other big up sets we need ! lol

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
12-23-2004, 02:13 PM
puff puff pass

shinerbock_girl
12-23-2004, 04:58 PM
Buffalo lose to San Fran. Let us think about it. Buffalo d againist San Fran o. Let us look at this. WAKE UP and get out of Dreamland. Just can not see it.

GEEZZZ, i agree....49 re's suck....lol...Buffalo is better then most ppl think....As i said before, i would be happy this year if we just won the last 2 games....

BroncoFever
12-26-2004, 12:03 AM
TEXANS! TEXANS! TEXANS!

Were all rooting for you here in Denver.

Please pull out a big win.... pleeeeeeeeeease

TEXANS84
12-26-2004, 01:02 AM
We'll try for you....

But if you guys hadn't have thrown out the Cover 2 on us and shown everyone our weakness...maybe things would be different for us right now.

Ratboy
12-26-2004, 01:59 AM
Kill those jagwads. Since we couldnt do it in week 2... The Texans have too.

What do you guys think of the Texans/Jags game?

I take it you guys are upset broncos won. I dont know your playoff situation.. but now you're out. Good Luck Next year. You guys have a nice squad. Carr and Johnson would be a nice addition to many teams.

Go Broncos.
and Go Texans (for this sunday only)

rittenhouserobz
12-26-2004, 06:19 AM
You can't please everyone, but beating the Jags sounds wonderful. Maybe Denver will come to Houston next time. The air is a little thicker. It might weigh down those Bronco players.

rittenhouserobz
12-26-2004, 06:23 AM
I would love to see the Texans beat Jax-town, but I will have to settle for a Texans victory over the radio. :)

Good luck to the Broncos. They showed the Texans a tough game. It helps build character.