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View Full Version : Is Steve McNair a good QB?


infantrycak
12-15-2004, 08:38 AM
The Texans part will get here--just a minute.

Been a lot of complaining about Carr around here and dreadful predictions on his future from complete bust to Kerry Collins. Just curious what that says about Steve McNair, last year's co-mvp?--or what it says about fan impatience?

How many years did it take McNair to have a QB rating better than Carr's so far this year?

Answer 5th year as a starter--after two years on the bench for the most part.

How many years out of 8 as a starter has McNair had a better QB rating?

Answer 2.

How many years has McNair had a better yards per attempt?

Answer 1.

How many times in McNair's 10 year career has he thrown more balls over 20 yards than Carr has this year (48 so far)?

Answer 2.

Plus, unless Carr gets knocked out for the remainder of the year, he will have thrown for more yards in a season than McNair ever has.

Now keep in mind the team around McNair--Eddie George, an OL that actually sent people to the pro-bowl (in fact the worst season McNair has ever endured has already been met by Carr this season--37 sacks)--a team that until this year had only one losing season since leaving Houston and had gotten to the Super Bowl.

The point of this?--well it isn't that McNair isn't any good. JMO, looking for places to improve the team is one thing, but pulling out the negativity crystal ball is silly unless it is the same one that predicted the Chargers would go to the playoffs this year and that Drew Brees really was a good QB. The other point is that QB's and OC's get too much credit when teams do well and too much criticism when teams do poorly.

Build an OL that gives up less than 35 sacks a year on a consistant basis and we will see what Carr and Palmer are made of.

EDIT--Disclaimer addition--as there seems to be some confusion, nothing in this thread is intended to state or imply that McNair is not an excellent QB or as a prediction that Carr is or will be as good or better a QB than McNair. Whooh--hopefully that get's it done.

HJam72
12-15-2004, 08:42 AM
Um, can I give give this thread about 8 stars?

HJam72
12-15-2004, 08:46 AM
Oh, I knew the Chargers would be really good this year. I was joking when I called them the "Worst team in Football". :fib

Marcus
12-15-2004, 08:47 AM
The problem is that too many people believe that unless we have a John Elway/Peyton Manning/Brett Favre type clone at QB, this team will never go anywhere.

Carr is good enough. Just give him some protection. Just give him a running game. Just give him a defense.

When the Texans go to the Super Bowl, it won't be "Carr leads Texans to Super Bowl", it will be "Texans Go To the Super Bowl".

nunusguy
12-15-2004, 09:12 AM
I have not been timid in my criticism of Dave Carr, but I would never take
these things away from him - he is a classy young man and the sacrifices
he made and courage he showed in the Texans inaugural season re. the sack
record set a standard for team leadership by an individual.

TheOgre
12-15-2004, 09:20 AM
Trent Dilfer has a Super Bowl ring. If he can get one, it sets the bar pretty low for others to get one.

gwallaia
12-15-2004, 09:31 AM
A better title for this thread would have been: Was Steve McNair a Good QB?

ArlingtonTexan
12-15-2004, 10:06 AM
i have written in detail on my thoughts on carr as QB on another site, and don't have energy this morning to rehash the detail but there are a couple of thought.

I beleive Carr is in the range between the jake plummer/Kerry collins qb and steve MeNair Qb. IMO, he will have a couple of probowl type seasons but will be inconsistent throughout his career. The inconsistency will sometime show in game, game to game, or even year to year.

I have seen all over the place where Carr is only in his 3rd year and give him time, etc. the only QBs in the NFL that get 3 year full years to develop while playing are top 10 draft choices, which Carr is one. If you get 3 years, you had better have shown at least flashes of playmaking ability and leadership or the 4th is not guaranteed to you (see Harrington).

In short at some point i expect the 4,000 yard 28 TD/15 Int year from Carr, but I expect that to be followed by 2800 yard 16TD/18 int disaster. that is what i see.

TheOgre
12-15-2004, 10:15 AM
That is probably not a bad assessment of Carr. I don't see quite that much divergence in his season to season stats in the future. I think he will hit a plain and stay there. He might have some high INT seasons but I think he will have consistent seasonal yardage. I see some remarkable games and some downright awful games in his future.

I see a cross between Plummer and Favre in there. Hopefully he doesn't suffer from the same rollercoaster ride that Plummer has.

SESupergenius
12-15-2004, 10:20 AM
I focus more on how a line an protect a QB before I criticize the QB. I mean watching Wand in 2 games against Freeney will make you puke. Then you want to scream and hollar at Pitts for making those false starts AT HOME even. We've seen what Carr can do when he has time and is confortable with his protection, clearly is not right now.

infantrycak
12-15-2004, 10:29 AM
I should have added to my post to make clear that I am not implying by the above that Carr will ever be league MVP--the point is more that there is a lot of distance between slag and MVP. There are still a ton of people out there that will argue Aikman was not a very good QB and just played for a good team. My answer to that is well he was good enough for the team to win 3 Super Bowls and I pay to watch the Texans, not David Carr--in other words I don't care if the Texans have a superstar just so long as they don't have an anchor. IMO, there are clearly parts to the Texans puzzle that are holding the Texans back more than Carr at this point--and yes he still has a lot of room for improvement as well.

pek281
12-15-2004, 10:50 AM
I think Carr HAS shown all of the skills needed to be a great QB in the NFL. He's just simply missing too many pieces around him.

Cincinnatikid
12-15-2004, 10:56 AM
I think Carr HAS shown all of the skills needed to be a great QB in the NFL. He's just simply missing too many pieces around him.

Maybe flashes of being good, but have you watched him lately? his throws are terrible. and people say he is squirmish because of the line not blocking, but thats ****. If you are in the NFL you cant be afraid of being hit, this guy has played football for atleast 10 years of his life, he has been hit, so get use to it. There is no excuse for his horrible throws and bad audibles. He has had 3 years to learn to play in the NFL, he shouldnt be regressing

OzzO
12-15-2004, 11:00 AM
In short at some point i expect the 4,000 yard 28 TD/15 Int year from Carr, but I expect that to be followed by 2800 yard 16TD/18 int disaster. that is what i see.

Arlighton, not calling you out, but I think the stats noted are skewed (to save others from advancing this idea) unless you didn't mean Carr alone but the entire team....


Year Att Comp Pct Yards YPA Lg TD Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate
2002 444 233 52.5 2592 5.84 81 9 15 76/411 31 5 62.8
2003 295 167 56.6 2013 6.82 78 9 13 15/90 22 5 69.5
2004 393 244 62.1 3066 7.80 54 13 12 37/244 43 5 84.6
TOTAL 1132 644 56.9 7671 6.78 81 31 40 128/745 96 15 72.1

Carr stats (http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/306268)

Vinny
12-15-2004, 11:18 AM
No way do I compare Carr to McNair. Carr isn't in McNair's league. Numbers are misleading and you can't see McNair convert clutch 3rd and 2's in critical situations or keep drives alive with his fantastic feel for the pocket when you look back at stats. McNair has fantastic QB instincts. Carr's I consider way below average.

ArlingtonTexan
12-15-2004, 11:28 AM
Arlighton, not calling you out, but I think the stats noted are skewed (to save others from advancing this idea) unless you didn't mean Carr alone but the entire team....


Carr stats (http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/306268)

I am totally missing your point and don't take disagreement as calling out. the "stats" i listed were guesstimation of future years and had nothing to do with actuall stats.

infantrycak
12-15-2004, 11:50 AM
No way do I compare Carr to McNair. Carr isn't in McNair's league. Numbers are misleading and you can't see McNair convert clutch 3rd and 2's in critical situations or keep drives alive with his fantastic feel for the pocket when you look back at stats. McNair has fantastic QB instincts. Carr's I consider way below average.

To play devil's advocate--it is far easier to convert on 3rd and 2 or 3rd and anything when either George was picking up the 2 or blocking the pass rush or when the OL (you know this better--how many pro-bowlers have the Titans had on their OL?) does its job--i.e. the team is clutch as much as the QB is--getting sacked on 3rd down 4 times last week may partially lay with Carr, but it also (IMO predominately) falls on the OL. And if McNair is so good, why haven't his numbers ever been better, or at least consistantly better?

Mistril48
12-15-2004, 11:57 AM
Been a lot of complaining about Carr around here and dreadful predictions on his future from complete bust to Kerry Collins. Just curious what that says about Steve McNair, last year's co-mvp?--or what it says about fan impatience?...Thank you for your informative post.

I think it's very useful to put things in prespective. I think a lot of people just remember McNair as an MVP, surrounded by pro bowl, experienced talent (also see Aikman) and forget what it took to get him there. The argument is interesting - he's great and it's not just because of what he has around him - and then when he plays badly (last two Texan games) it's not his fault, it's because of what's around him.

It will be interesting to see the Texans continue to develop in the next few years and see where Carr ends up.

Vinny
12-15-2004, 11:57 AM
Converting on 3rd and 2 and keeping your team alive and winning games is FAR more important than a stat line showing you can move the ball but can't score, can't keep a drive alive and can't win games. McNair is a winner. The name of the game is getting your team in position to win/score. Racking up yardage is nice but we have done that and we suck.

Honestly, no offense, but take this topic to an active NFL board without hometown bias and you get laughed at. This is almost as bad as your take comparing Dom Davis to Emmitt Smith. I find you on the money on most stuff. I just don't see what you see when you look at some of these guys.

infantrycak
12-15-2004, 12:14 PM
Converting on 3rd and 2 and keeping your team alive and winning games is FAR more important than a stat line showing you can move the ball but can't score, can't keep a drive alive and can't win games. McNair is a winner. The name of the game is getting your team in position to win/score. Racking up yardage is nice but we have done that and we suck.

Never said stats were the same as winning games. That still doesn't explain why McNair the great doesn't have better completion %'s etc. There were two main points to this thread (1) that as you have so often pointed out (with the somewhat notable exception of Carr) it takes time for players to develop (hence the fan impatience question at the beginning--the McNair question was tongue in cheek) and (2) that single players cannot be judged by the team record--thank you for reinforcing that point--McNair is not a winner, the Tennessee Titans were winners during those year. Would you seriously argue Big Ben is better than Manning because his winning record is better this year than Manning?

Honestly, no offense, but take this topic to an active NFL board without hometown bias and you get laughed at. This is almost as bad as your take comparing Dom Davis to Emmitt Smith. I find you on the money on most stuff. I just don't see what you see when you look at some of these guys.

No offense taken, and no offense, but look back at the original post--nowhere does it say Carr is as good as or better than McNair. In fact it ends with we will no how good Carr is when we get a decent OL.

And for the record, I never compared DD with Emmitt in a he is as good as fashion. In the context of a discussion on running styles I said he was much more akin to Emmitt (move enough to make a shoulder tackle into an arm tackle and then break the arm tackle) than he was Barry Sanders (juke you out of your shorts and then blow by you) type RB. I believe I even said at the time I was using top backs not as a prediction of future career but because more people would recognize who/what was being talked about. Anybody want to seriously argue DD isn't a lot closer in running style to Emmitt than Barry?

Vinny
12-15-2004, 12:19 PM
It's all good and you make good points. I just wish I saw more in Carr when he was under pressure. If he was a stock, I'd be selling. I've lost money this way before though.

Hervoyel
12-15-2004, 12:23 PM
There are just too many variables to accurately compare these guys and draw this kind of conclusion. You can compare Carr's rookie year with McNair's rookie year but wait, McNair didn't play his rookie year, he sat. So instead you compare Carr's first year as the starter with McNair's first year as the starter to get a more accurate picture but wait, that doesn't really tell the tale either. McNair had the benefit of sitting that first year and by the time he started he'd been well versed on the offense and had a bunch of time to practice with their team.

Both being QB's makes it easy to find some numbers that can be compared and constrasted and since they NFL keeps track of every darned number possible you can find a favorable comparison somewhere between many players who are really far apart. Like Vinny mentioned with Davis and Smith you can find a way to compare the two and make them look much closer than they really are.

The one thing I don't ever see Carr doing today is consistently getting it done when the pressure is on. Not the pass rush (though that's also a form of pressure) but when the stakes are very high. Drive down the field to win the game, keep a drive alive when adversity has jumped in there and pushed your team back into 3rd and long, rally the offense to come in and get one more drive to put the other team two scores back instead of just one. I don't see him do any of those things yet. Maybe he does one day but he doesn't do it now. McNair does that.

El Tejano
12-15-2004, 12:24 PM
Our best players at the skill positions only have up to 3 years max at the pro level.

infantrycak
12-15-2004, 12:25 PM
I just wish I saw more in Carr when he was under pressure.

I wish I did as well. I thought we were seeing it come together for him earlier this year. Don't know why he has regressed these last few weeks or if there is any merit to the injury rumours, but the step he had taken in the 1st half of the season was much bigger than now for the season as a whole.

Is it just me or is our OL capable of only doing one thing per game well--either pass blocking or run blocking? Seems like the better the run game goes, the less time DC has--which should be the opposite of true.

There are just too many variables to accurately compare these guys and draw this kind of conclusion.

Man I really need to work on my disclaimers or something. Wasn't trying to draw a conclusion about either McNair's career or Carr's future--more of a things to make you go hmmm? thread.

By the way, for the Carr isn't a winner, won't battle back, isn't clutch folks (which I am not predicting either way yet--hopefully adequate disclaimer) many of the same things were said the 1st few years for Aikman (not a prediction of future Carr accomplishments--hopefully adequate disclaimer #2) up in Dallas. Kind of self-defining IMO--when a team is losing, the QB isn't a winner--once the team starts winning, the QB is a winner.

Vinny
12-15-2004, 12:31 PM
A few weeks ago I just came to the conclusion that I am going to have to be patient. We all want a team that is at the tip of everyone's tongue at the end of the year. We want to have everything in place for some dynamic playoff run next year. We want to see our line hammer people and we want our QB to light teams up and make them pay. We are going to have to wait to see that kind of stuff.

If you look at the Steelers they were very average last year. Some consider 6-10 below average actually. Look at them today. 12-1 with a rookie QB. If our line can come together and we get another back to help us out as Duce Staley helped out the Steeler running game (and we get a multi-task TE) I think we can have a big year next year. If the Steelers can do it....we can. They don't do anything special in the air. They just pound the ball and play good defense.

wags
12-15-2004, 12:42 PM
If you look at the Steelers they were very average last year. Some consider 6-10 below average actually. Look at them today. 12-1 with a rookie QB. If our line can come together and we get another back to help us out as Duce Staley helped out the Steeler running game (and we get a multi-task TE) I think we can have a big year next year. If the Steelers can do it....we can. They don't do anything special in the air. They just pound the ball and play good defense.

I was with you all the way until you mentioned good defense. Do you know where we can find one?

OzzO
12-15-2004, 01:01 PM
I am totally missing your point and don't take disagreement as calling out. the "stats" i listed were guesstimation of future years and had nothing to do with actuall stats.

Oh, misread your post - I thought you were bringing up past numbers, not discussing future possibilities. My mistake.

HJam72
12-15-2004, 02:40 PM
By the way, for the Carr isn't a winner, won't battle back, isn't clutch folks (which I am not predicting either way yet--hopefully adequate disclaimer) many of the same things were said the 1st few years for Aikman (not a prediction of future Carr accomplishments--hopefully adequate disclaimer #2) up in Dallas.

I don't really think you should be comparing Carr to Aikman. Aikman won 3 Superbowls and Carr is 5-8. Maybe you should just stop with this and compare Aikman to McNair. I think Carr's more like a Joe Montana.


:rofl:

fresno8
12-15-2004, 10:05 PM
Great post, you put a good perspective on Carr. Personally I think he will be very good if he gets a line. He has the competitive fire to lead this team to great things. However the jury is still out on him. I think he can be a gun slinger like Favre (he won't be Favre no one will, but close) if he ever gets the line. With that comes lots of TD's & yards and brilliance, but picks and plays that leave you scratching your head as well. Sometimes watching Favre your in awe and sometimes your like why the heck did he throw that ball. Carr is in the same mold, but earlier in his career with out all the pieces to the puzzle. He's doing fine