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View Full Version : Important and Specific Question re the Duane Brown Pick.


ToxicButt
04-28-2008, 11:46 AM
A lot of folks are unsatisfied (or furious) with the pick because:
(1) they feel Brown is talented, but was a "reach", or
(2) that Brown is just not going to succeed for a long while (not that talented at all). I think most folks are in scenario (1). For those of you that are, you're kinda thinking that if Smithiak really wanted Brown, they should have moved down and grabbed more value.

My specific question is directed at that crowd. You're Smithiak:

- Assume Brown was truly the Texan's target after Williams and Albert. (To me, this seems true)

- Assume Smithiak rated Brown as a high 2nd round pick. (I think this is probably true or very close)

Assume that we could have traded down 10 spots, from 26th to 36th, and picked up a high/mid 3rd round pick. But also assume that there was 50% chance that Brown is not available at 36.

The 50% is arbitrarily made up by me, but consider the following:

- Zero OT's were selected in round 2. To me, this indicates that Brown was the last OT worth a 1st or 2nd round pick. Recall that Baker and Cherilous were both considered 2nd rounders but moved up because of the value placed on OT's.

- St Louis sat at 33, (2nd pick in round 2) and Orlando Pace is getting older; St Louis took OT at the top of 3rd round. The next 3 OT's were taken very late in 4th round.

- SF sat at 39 and could also use an OT/OG (if you're pessimistic) prospect.

(Now that I type this, I'm starting to think that there would have been more than 50% chance of someone grabbing Brown before 36th pick in my hypothetical.)

----------------

I don't think this hypothetical is that far off from reality. Here's my question --

Do you roll the dice and grab that extra 3rd rounder; or do you take Brown a little higher than you really wanted?

If I'm Smithiak, I take Brown at 26. Here's why -- We have alex gibbs for 2 years or so. NOW is the time to get our OT, to give Gibbs talent to mold into a ZBS unit. That's why we got the new center. Now with Brown in to the fold, we have the right talent base to develop that unit.

The alternative is to wait until next year. That's another year's delay in the ZBS unit. I've had enough of not being able to run the ball and not having the future LT in the fold.

Thoughts from the gallery?

(I love football and know a fair amount about sports generally, but Bball is what I know best; I'd be very curious to hear from the experts around here on this).

threetoedpete
04-28-2008, 12:04 PM
Nice points....But what I consider : here the head coach drags this team to 8-8. Team decimated by injuries in the offensive line...team can't pick up a 3-1 or forth and 1 worth squat. Team that has given up major shots to his hand picked QB. What does this head coach do first thing. Well, when the aggie is going to drive a nail into the board he go gets the biggest hammer he can find in the garage. Guy he's worked with for fifteen years. Guy who has put his teams o-lines in the top five in rushing in the league thirteen out of fifteen years. HOFer canidate if he sits at home another four years and does nothing. So this head coach of ours falls on his knees and begs the HOfer canidate mushroom club guy to come out of retiremnet. And the guy says yes.

End of Febuary....they go to the east west shirners game and when Gibbs and the scouts come back they tell Smith and Kubiak he's found his guy. "The" tool he needs to right the ship. So what are Smith and Kubiack going to do at this point ? Tell Gibbs F.U. you can't have him ? Why that's absurd on it's face. Who would do something this stupid ?

What some of our board members, and John Clayton of the disney sports chanel, will have to come to grips with is this was Gibbs hand picked guy. And who the heck was going to tell him no? HOFer o-line coach tells me something, I'm going to do it. Some may have a different stance.

I wanna see John Clayton stand toe to toe with Alex Gibbs look him square in the eye and tell the man he doesn't know WTF he's doing. Because that is what John Clayton just posted for the whole world to see. Too funny. There is a reason ESPN is losing market share on the football side. Kiper wasn't stupid enough to do it.

Thorn
04-28-2008, 12:05 PM
If I'm Smithiak, I take Brown at 26. Here's why -- We have alex gibbs for 2 years or so. NOW is the time to get our OT, to give Gibbs talent to mold into a ZBS unit. That's why we got the new center. Now with Brown in to the fold, we have the right talent base to develop that unit.

The alternative is to wait until next year. That's another year's delay in the ZBS unit. I've had enough of not being able to run the ball and not having the future LT in the fold.


Agreed. But then I one of those who liked the pick anyway.

Porky
04-28-2008, 12:12 PM
I'm not an expert by any means, but your hypothetical seems accurate to me. :goodpost:

Pantherstang84
04-28-2008, 12:15 PM
No. No. No. No. We blew it I tell ya! My big board draft magazine says we did. We should have grabbed Mendenhall! My mag says so!
:sarcasm:

lol. I agree with ya. Get the pieces now and let the ZBS master do his magic. It will pay dividends for years to come.

Ole Miss Texan
04-28-2008, 12:16 PM
Supposedly Seattle called who had the 28th pick wanting to trade up with us. Swap 1sts and they'd give us their 4th rounder to move down 2 spots and Smith "respectfully declined".

Can anyone verify if this is true or just a rumor?

Pantherstang84
04-28-2008, 12:20 PM
Supposedly Seattle called who had the 28th pick wanting to trade up with us. Swap 1sts and they'd give us their 4th rounder to move down 2 spots and Smith "respectfully declined".

Can anyone verify if this is true or just a rumor?

Smith said they had an offer to move further down, but didn't give details about it. If he had accepted it, I think Kubes would have had a coronary right then and there.

edo783
04-28-2008, 12:23 PM
Supposedly Seattle called who had the 28th pick wanting to trade up with us. Swap 1sts and they'd give us their 4th rounder to move down 2 spots and Smith "respectfully declined".

Can anyone verify if this is true or just a rumor?

It's true.

GlassHalfFull
04-28-2008, 12:23 PM
Supposedly Seattle called who had the 28th pick wanting to trade up with us. Swap 1sts and they'd give us their 4th rounder to move down 2 spots and Smith "respectfully declined".

Can anyone verify if this is true or just a rumor?

Take this for what it is worth, but John McLame wrote that the phone rang when we were on the board with the 26th pick and Kubiak yelled not to answer it. He said they (Smithiak) were getting antsy and didn't want to risk Brown getting picked. I'll go see if I can find the article and link it. BRB.

Wolfiegrrl
04-28-2008, 12:28 PM
I'll be the first to admit that I had four scenarios playing in my head as the draft was happening. 1: we take an OT. 2: we take CB. 3: we take RB. 4: we trade down and still get our guy. I was nervous as hell. Seriously, I was pacing the room. I didn't have Duane Brown on my draft list. Hell, I think NFL.com still had him listed as a TE until we picked him. NFLdraftcountdown.com had him going at 29. You could call it a slight reach, but there was no way this kid was going to last if we traded down to the 2nd round.

The fact that Brown was THE pick and always was THE pick as stated by Kubiak in his presser on Saturday makes me a happy camper. Because of the trade down of 8 spots we actually got our franchise LT, we got our "stud" change of pace RB, and we got depth at FS that has football bloodlines. That to me says value. We went into that draft with 5 picks and came out with 7 guys! Awesome work Smithiak!

Wolfiegrrl
04-28-2008, 12:29 PM
Take this for what it is worth, but John McLame wrote that the phone rang when we were on the board with the 26th pick and Kubiak yelled not to answer it. He said they (Smithiak) were getting antsy and didn't want to risk Brown getting picked. I'll go see if I can find the article and link it. BRB.

John McLame is repeating what was said in the presser Saturday after the pick.

eriadoc
04-28-2008, 12:37 PM
No one knows what spot a player should be taken at. Demeco should have been the 33rd player taken in the 2006 draft? The 32 players taken before him are better? Really? Marques Colston should have been taken in the 7th round? Tom Brady should have been taken in the 6th round?

No one knows anything for sure. So if you value a player, and you feel like your only shot to get the guy is now, you do it. If a guy is going to be a bust, he's going to be a bust at just about any draft position, for the most part.

ToxicButt
04-28-2008, 12:40 PM
Well, hell! Isn't someone going to disagree with me? With all the folks that were incensed about the pick, I'd think someone would carry the torch for the other side of the argument.

GlassHalfFull
04-28-2008, 01:07 PM
Well, hell! Isn't someone going to disagree with me? With all the folks that were incensed about the pick, I'd think someone would carry the torch for the other side of the argument.

Sorry, all that work and a beautifully laid out post and nobody even bothered to argue with you. Life just sucks sometimes. LOL.

Couple of reasons that might apply. Some have calmed down and like the two extra picks we got with the trade down. This may have soothed some ruffled feathers. Also, from 18 to 26 allowed several extra beers to be drunk before our first pick. Those may have influenced some of the posts at the time. And finally, the flaming has been going on ad nauseum in other posts, maybe the worst offenders (or most offended, however you want to look at it) keyboards have failed.

Honoring Earl 34
04-28-2008, 01:15 PM
Sorry, all that work and a beautifully laid out post and nobody even bothered to argue with you. Life just sucks sometimes. LOL.

Couple of reasons that might apply. Some have calmed down and like the two extra picks we got with the trade down. This may have soothed some ruffled feathers. Also, from 18 to 26 allowed several extra beers to be drunk before our first pick. Those may have influenced some of the posts at the time. And finally, the flaming has been going on ad nauseum in other posts, maybe the worst offenders (or most offended, however you want to look at it) keyboards have failed.

I'm more sad that the draft is over than I am with our picks . If we win 10-11 games nobody's gonna care anyway .

PapaL
04-28-2008, 01:18 PM
Mr. Brown,

Welcome to Houston. I am happy you are here. Now go maul and manhandle some D-Linemen.

Sincerely,
Happy with the Choice

Maddict5
04-28-2008, 01:20 PM
Supposedly Seattle called who had the 28th pick wanting to trade up with us. Swap 1sts and they'd give us their 4th rounder to move down 2 spots and Smith "respectfully declined".

Can anyone verify if this is true or just a rumor?

from their presser its true the phone rang and they didnt answer it/ or rejected theoffer (not sure)... there was a rumour it was a trade with seattle but imo its sounds like they said they had a trade down offere WHILE seaattle were on the clock at 25.. gary and smith kind talked over each other while they were explaining it so it was difficult to hear

keyser
04-28-2008, 01:21 PM
Smith said they had an offer to move further down, but didn't give details about it. If he had accepted it, I think Kubes would have had a coronary right then and there.

Yes, in the press conference, Smith says they had another offer to move down. Kubiak interjects right before that that it was Seattle, but Smith never explicitly says so. As far as I can tell, the specifics (drop 2 slots for a 4th) are speculation - the drop 2 spots would be a likely guess, but the 4th might have been only a 5th. I doubt we will ever hear the full story.

Regarding the original post, I'd have worried about trading all the way into the middle of the 2nd, but dropping down just a couple of slots seemed worth it (especially if it was for a 4th). For the proposed trade (a third for 10 slots), I'd probably still go ahead and take the trade, figuring I'd still get Brown, but that's mainly because I would have put the odds of him being taken lower - like around 20-25%. But, realistically, if the odds were 50% of losing him, and the coaches are as high on him as they seem, yeah, I might go ahead and grab him there.

This reminds me of playing "Deal or No Deal", but with less information... The questions are, what are the odds of that $1,000,000 case going away, and what are the values of the remaining cases. From the coaches' reaction, it appears they might have valued Brown WAY more than any other picks in that range (e.g. as if the other cases were worth under $100,000), and if so, it would make more sense to take the deal earlier, rather than risking losing it. But, if those "fallback" players were close (e.g. the $500,000+ cases), then taking the deal early seems less important.

Vinny
04-28-2008, 01:24 PM
For the proposed trade (a third for 10 slots), I'd probably still go ahead and take the trade, figuring I'd still get Brown, but that's mainly because I would have put the odds of him being taken lower - like around 20-25%. But, realistically, if the odds were 50% of losing him, and the coaches are as high on him as they seem, yeah, I might go ahead and grab him there.

odds likely higher than that since Atlanta 'really' reached for Baker when they traded up to secure him. Baker doesn't have near the athletic ability that Brown has.

Honoring Earl 34
04-28-2008, 01:53 PM
Hate to plug the other board but this is pretty cool .

http://boards.houstontexans.com/showthread.php?t=6711