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View Full Version : Players likely to be available at and worth #18


keyser
03-01-2008, 06:04 PM
I sometimes get confused with just where various players are expected to go, who we might be able to choose from at pick 18, etc. I wanted to know who would is likely to be available to choose from, and who is genrally considered "worth" a number 18 pick. So, I went out and looked at 6 post-combine mocks posted online (scout.com, Don Banks at SI.com, NFLDraftCoundown, WalterFootball, and two at NFLDraftScout.com), to see where the general consensus was.

Based on that, there are 11 players for which there's a consensus that they'll be gone by our pick:
Chris Long
Jake Long
Darren McFadden
Matt Ryan
Sedrick Ellis
Vernon Gholston
Glenn Dorsey
Ryan Clady
Leodis McKelvin
Mike Jenkins
Philip Merling

Five of the six also had these three players gone before us (and all had them taken in the first round):
Keith Rivers
Rashard Mendenhall
Derrick Harvey

So, we can probably assume those 14 are gone, and we're left to choose from the rest (though three others will probably be selected first). Now, I wanted to see who would be considered "worth" a number 18 pick. The following are the list of players that at least 4 of the 6 mocks had as being taken in the first round, and that at least 2 of the 6 had as being taken at 18 or earlier.

Malcom Kelly (taken in all 6, ranged from 11 to 22)
Jonathan Stewart (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
Chris Williams (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
Aqib Talib (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 7 to 30)
Limas Sweed (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 11 to 26)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 10 to 30)
Jeff Otah (taken in 4 of 6, ranged from 14 to 23)

So, out of those 7, we ought to have at least 4 to choose from. Kelly and Sweed are probably not on our radar (can't see us drafting a WR high), and Otah is probably a bad fit for the ZBS we're shifting to. But, we should be able to get one of the other 4, and they all see pretty good options.

bah007
03-01-2008, 06:08 PM
If Williams is off the board, then I'm still of the opinion that we should take Antoine Cason.

The guy is supremely underrated by mock drafters. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 18 on draft day.

nero THE zero
03-01-2008, 06:12 PM
I would rank them like this:

Chris Williams
Jonathan Stewart
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Aqib Talib
Jeff Otah
Malcom Kelly
Limas Sweed

I expect Brandon Flowers to be in the mix though as well.

YoungTexanFan
03-02-2008, 10:42 AM
I expect Brandon Flowers to be in the mix though as well.

I don't. Flowers is not a first round talent.

YoungTexanFan
03-02-2008, 10:43 AM
If Williams is off the board, then I'm still of the opinion that we should take Antoine Cason.

The guy is supremely underrated by mock drafters. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 18 on draft day.

I like Cason as well, but talking to my people, as of right now, he isn't expected to go in the first round. He is looking like a mid second, but some of my sources have him slipping to the early third.

bah007
03-02-2008, 03:53 PM
I like Cason as well, but talking to my people, as of right now, he isn't expected to go in the first round. He is looking like a mid second, but some of my sources have him slipping to the early third.

I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.

TexansSeminole
03-02-2008, 04:31 PM
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.

Agree with this. I'd trust Cason to be our #2 corner from day 1, easily.

If he and DRC are there at #18 and Mike Jenkins, and Leodis McKelvin are gone, I would probably draft Cason just because we need a guy who we can bank on to start right away. That is if are targeting one of those corners.

Honoring Earl 34
03-02-2008, 04:34 PM
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.

This is projection vs performance .

badboy
03-04-2008, 03:28 PM
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.Maybe it has to do with what other players are doing or how needs are being perceived. Maybe it is not him slipping but others moving up?

badboy
03-04-2008, 03:45 PM
My trust in Smith and Kubes has effected me to this extent. The signing of Reeves seems to indicate he will have a legitimate shot at starter. I do not think he would have signed here if he thought Texans would spend a first round at his position. The money may be the same but the glory is not. So, if CB is removed from the immediate equation, I'd go with RB unless Vanderbilt's Williams is available at #18. I have frequently said go with the possible franchise RB as no franchise type LT will be at #18. If Stewart (M. being gone by then) and Williams are both there? Man oh man. I first would hope that somebody just a few spots below us did not need a LT or RB and would trade up to get 18 and give us anything extra. I just do not see that. I could probably be talked into changing my mind, again and again, but for right this minute would draft Williams. I think he can be a 12 year player and Stewart about 8 as a starter.

YoungTexanFan
03-04-2008, 03:58 PM
I'm actually thinking Green Bay might be interested in moving up with us now that Farve is gone. Arron Rodgers is not the answer. Maybe Brohm is there and they want to make sure they get him. Just throwing stuff out there.

badboy
03-04-2008, 04:03 PM
I'm actually thinking Green Bay might be interested in moving up with us now that Farve is gone. Arron Rodgers is not the answer. Maybe Brohm is there and they want to make sure they get him. Just throwing stuff out there.What would the offer be? Do you see CB as major issue now Reeves is aboard? I can't see him signing if he thought CB would be a first round consideration for Texans.

YoungTexanFan
03-04-2008, 04:17 PM
What would the offer be? Do you see CB as major issue now Reeves is aboard? I can't see him signing if he thought CB would be a first round consideration for Texans.

I don't think Reeves is coming in as a starter. I think he is more of a Von Hutchins type signing. He will compete for the starting job, but he is not cemented as a starter. Even if he wins that role, it will be after the draft, and even considering that, we still need a true #1 CB...even when Daunta returns.

I don't know what the offer will be, but Green Bay was a playoff team, so their pick is later in the first, and their second rounder could be essentially equal to a third on the value chart. So, possibly a second and like a 3rd next year and a swap of our first rounders this year.

Ole Miss Texan
03-04-2008, 04:19 PM
Maybe it has to do with what other players are doing or how needs are being perceived. Maybe it is not him slipping but others moving up?

That definitely could be it. But I just think there are some big ?'s with those corners that are getting all the hype now. I guess when it comes down to it the really solid players do go late 1st round and early-mid 2nd round. They may not be the sexiest, or have as high of ceiling but so so many are just really sound football players.


All I know is that I'd be very very careful spending an early 1st rd pick on a Corner this year.

The Pencil Neck
03-04-2008, 04:34 PM
I want to just jump in here... and I don't know anything about any of the college players, so I'm going to ask this question.

Everyone has us picking LT, RB, or CB (with the S thrown in occasionally.) But is it possible that Keith Rivers the LB is sitting there and would he fit with our team?

bah007
03-04-2008, 04:36 PM
I would like to have Keith Rivers, but I done see any way that he falls to 18.

Ole Miss Texan
03-04-2008, 04:51 PM
I'd hop all over the Green Bay trade (unless there is a LT available that Gibbs knows will be a pro-bowl franchise type for us).

Houston #18: 900 points
Green Bay #30: 620 points
Green Bay #61ish: 292 points

So we'd get their 1st and 2nd (roughly 912 points) and they'd receive our 1st (900 points). Their pick may be off a tad because of NE not having 'their' 1st rd pick + Indy and Dallas both had the same record as GB so they may alternate somehow. We may have to give up like a 6th or 7th to make the "points" equal, but then again they may have to pay a "premium" for our pick.

(*Dream scenario: Draft day trades of (1) Sage Rosenfels to a team like Minnesota for their 2nd round pick; Smith and Kubiak already have a few veteran QB's in mind to sign as FA's but Schaub never gets hurt so it's a moot point anyway and (2) No 'must have players' available for us at #18 but Green Bay HAS to have a certain player. We trade our 1st for their 1st and later 2nd rd picks.

So we roughly have First day picks of:
1st Round: Pick #30 (Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona)
2nd Round: Picks #17 (Anthony Collins, LT, Kansas) and #30 (Matt Forte, RB, Tulane)

We'd also have our 3rd round picks-on, to play with grabbing some quality offensive lineman (guards and/or tackles), pass rushing defensive end, and whoever else they like.

Goldensilence
03-04-2008, 05:30 PM
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.

Agreed. Said it before and i am sure i am looking likea broken record. Guy has Leon Hall last year written all over him. Nitpicked by pundits up to the draft but as the day got there Cinci looked at the Tape, took him, and was rewarded with 5 ints.

steelbtexan
03-04-2008, 06:02 PM
I'd hop all over the Green Bay trade (unless there is a LT available that Gibbs knows will be a pro-bowl franchise type for us).

Houston #18: 900 points
Green Bay #30: 620 points
Green Bay #61ish: 292 points

So we'd get their 1st and 2nd (roughly 912 points) and they'd receive our 1st (900 points). Their pick may be off a tad because of NE not having 'their' 1st rd pick + Indy and Dallas both had the same record as GB so they may alternate somehow. We may have to give up like a 6th or 7th to make the "points" equal, but then again they may have to pay a "premium" for our pick.

(*Dream scenario: Draft day trades of (1) Sage Rosenfels to a team like Minnesota for their 2nd round pick; Smith and Kubiak already have a few veteran QB's in mind to sign as FA's but Schaub never gets hurt so it's a moot point anyway and (2) No 'must have players' available for us at #18 but Green Bay HAS to have a certain player. We trade our 1st for their 1st and later 2nd rd picks.

So we roughly have First day picks of:
1st Round: Pick #30 (Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona)
2nd Round: Picks #17 (Anthony Collins, LT, Kansas) and #30 (Matt Forte, RB, Tulane)

We'd also have our 3rd round picks-on, to play with grabbing some quality offensive lineman (guards and/or tackles), pass rushing defensive end, and whoever else they like.

WoW!!!

This would be a dream senario

YoungTexanFan
03-04-2008, 08:39 PM
Keith Rivers would be BPA at 18, and he would upgrade any LB position, though he should play outside.

rollinstone18
03-04-2008, 10:06 PM
I'd hop all over the Green Bay trade (unless there is a LT available that Gibbs knows will be a pro-bowl franchise type for us).

Houston #18: 900 points
Green Bay #30: 620 points
Green Bay #61ish: 292 points

So we'd get their 1st and 2nd (roughly 912 points) and they'd receive our 1st (900 points). Their pick may be off a tad because of NE not having 'their' 1st rd pick + Indy and Dallas both had the same record as GB so they may alternate somehow. We may have to give up like a 6th or 7th to make the "points" equal, but then again they may have to pay a "premium" for our pick.

(*Dream scenario: Draft day trades of (1) Sage Rosenfels to a team like Minnesota for their 2nd round pick; Smith and Kubiak already have a few veteran QB's in mind to sign as FA's but Schaub never gets hurt so it's a moot point anyway and (2) No 'must have players' available for us at #18 but Green Bay HAS to have a certain player. We trade our 1st for their 1st and later 2nd rd picks.

So we roughly have First day picks of:
1st Round: Pick #30 (Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona)
2nd Round: Picks #17 (Anthony Collins, LT, Kansas) and #30 (Matt Forte, RB, Tulane)

We'd also have our 3rd round picks-on, to play with grabbing some quality offensive lineman (guards and/or tackles), pass rushing defensive end, and whoever else they like.

I like it. Though I'd go Kevin Smith or Ray Rice over Forte.

Ole Miss Texan
03-04-2008, 11:20 PM
Had trouble getting to sleep. Weird feeling though, but for some odd reason, I have a strong strong feeling we're going to draft Branden Albert, OL, Virginia. Call me crazy but it was like I could see the future! :wacko:

BSofA04
03-04-2008, 11:57 PM
If Williams is off the board, then I'm still of the opinion that we should take Antoine Cason.

The guy is supremely underrated by mock drafters. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 18 on draft day.

A likely scenerio. William's stock has soared since the last 4 weeks. Also, Cason is a tremendous CB and I agree with you that he is underrated. Almost ridiculously on some draft sites.

BSofA04
03-04-2008, 11:59 PM
Had trouble getting to sleep. Weird feeling though, but for some odd reason, I have a strong strong feeling we're going to draft Branden Albert, OL, Virginia. Call me crazy but it was like I could see the future! :wacko:

Hum? He'd be the only OG to go in the first round so it'd be a big possibility. I wonder if the Texans would keep him at guard or attempt to move him at tackle?

Second Honeymoon
03-05-2008, 12:15 AM
I just dont see what Cason has done to make his stock drop.

He was pretty much considered a consensus 1st rounder last year. Now he wins the Thorpe, runs a decent 40 time & looks good in drills at the combine, but he is falling?

I'm not buying it.

I would consider my specialty to be in the secondary, and everybody misses a few, but I haven't missed many recently. I think Cason has 1st round talent.

i have always been high on Cason. He was a team leader too. He is gonna be a 1st Round selection once the smoke clears.

YoungTexanFan
03-05-2008, 01:26 AM
Hum? He'd be the only OG to go in the first round so it'd be a big possibility. I wonder if the Texans would keep him at guard or attempt to move him at tackle?

I would be completely pissed off if we drafted and tried to move him to LT. He has all pro potential at OG. He is a 3rd round project at LT.

b0ng
03-05-2008, 02:16 AM
Keith Rivers would be BPA at 18, and he would upgrade any LB position, though he should play outside.

I don't think Rivers is going to be a better MLB than Ryans, sorry :(

beerlover
03-05-2008, 03:00 AM
I would be completely pissed off if we drafted and tried to move him to LT. He has all pro potential at OG. He is a 3rd round project at LT.

Pitts is above average LG, makes no sense to move him & Albert does not project to RG or RT for that matter. don't see how he addresses a major need for the Texans. Chris Williams is the only 1st rd. option @ #18 that fits & returns good value @ LT. so I'd be pissed off too if we drafted him 1st rd. period :aggressive:

YoungTexanFan
03-05-2008, 08:39 AM
Pitts is above average LG, makes no sense to move him & Albert does not project to RG or RT for that matter. don't see how he addresses a major need for the Texans. Chris Williams is the only 1st rd. option @ #18 that fits & returns good value @ LT. so I'd be pissed off too if we drafted him 1st rd. period :aggressive:

He projects to LG while Pitts could swing over to RG.

Ole Miss Texan
03-05-2008, 08:50 AM
He projects to LG while Pitts could swing over to RG.

Here's a big BIG IF. And it's actually the first time I've said anything about it. But IF Charles Spencer comes back healthy enough to play Left Tackle and doesn't have to get moved to Guard or get Cut by Gibbs- this would pretty much finish our OL for the near future. I've never had high hopes on Spencer making it back to LT though. And they've been looking at a lot of guys at Center- Gibbs could draft a G/C type of guy on the 2nd day to groom into the role, too.

Spencer-Albert-?-Pitts-Winston

Ole Miss Texan
03-05-2008, 08:52 AM
i have always been high on Cason. He was a team leader too. He is gonna be a 1st Round selection once the smoke clears.

Darrelle Revis was my favorite CB last year and Cason is my favorite CB this year. Revis ended up going sooner than everyone initially thought (actually the 1st CB). I suspect the same goes for Cason (maybe not the 1st CB but he should go in the 1st easy, imo).

beerlover
03-05-2008, 11:18 AM
Antoine Cason reminds me of Leon Hall, Michigan last year drafted #18 by Cincinnati. safe, productive pick but doesn't get me all that excited.

Cason is 6002 191/4.45 20 reps 35 1/2 vertical broad jump 10'08"

Leon Hall is 5112 193/4.39 15 reps 37 1/2 vertical broad jump 10'05"

Cason (Arizona) career- started 47 games. 253 tackles 196 solo. 15 INT's.

Hall (Michigan) career- started 37 games. 180 tackles 141 solos. 12 INT's.

Hall (Cincinnati) rookie season- played all 16 games as starter, 68 tackles 54 solo. 5 INT's. that would be about what to expect from Cason, very solid numbers, yet nothing spectacilar. I'm sure most of us would take that right now & I'd be Ok with that but if you look at Fred Bennetts production (4th rd. pick) started 8 games 55 tackles 49 solo & 3 INT's Rick Smith can find that kind of production in the 2nd day.

The Pencil Neck
03-05-2008, 11:29 AM
Hall (Cincinnati) rookie season- played all 16 games as starter, 68 tackles 54 solo. 5 INT's. that would be about what to expect from Cason, very solid numbers, yet nothing spectacilar. I'm sure most of us would take that right now & I'd be Ok with that but if you look at Fred Bennetts production (4th rd. pick) started 8 games 55 tackles 49 solo & 3 INT's Rick Smith can find that kind of production in the 2nd day.

If Bennett can keep producing, I'd be happy just to be able to get another CB that just doesn't get pantsed by the other team every time he steps on the field. If that's through the draft or Reeves or whatever, I don't care. I just hate our team getting embarrassed over and over and over.

YoungTexanFan
03-05-2008, 11:38 AM
I don't think Rivers is going to be a better MLB than Ryans, sorry :(

He won't play MLB, especially on our team, but he would, talent wise, be an upgrade over any LB on our team. He is that good. The scary thing is that he isn't even the best LB on his USC team.

beerlover
03-05-2008, 12:16 PM
I'm not a big Rivers fan. likes to drop into coverage more than attack the line of scrimmage & mix it up, not a natural edge rusher which is really what we need.

As a matter of fact, addressing Keyser original question I'm going to throw Quentin Groves, Auburn name into the hat. his measureables are intriquing to me, 259 lbs 4.57 forty 30 reps. LZ had this to say "I think it is a mistake for 4-3 teams not to consider him as a Sam LB who can drop down to DE on pass rushing situations". I'm a long way from being convinced, however if the Texans want to address the pass rusher from the OLB/DE position Groves might be invited to Relient for a personel workout. if that happens & he blows away the coaching staff its not outside the realm of possiblity.

What about the value of the 18th pick = to Groves in trade down & pick up extra pick(s)?

Texans Horror
03-05-2008, 02:32 PM
Jonathan Stewart (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
Chris Williams (taken in all 6, ranged from 13 to 25)
Aqib Talib (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 7 to 30)
Limas Sweed (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 11 to 26)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (taken in 5 of 6, ranged from 10 to 30)
Jeff Otah (taken in 4 of 6, ranged from 14 to 23)

The way I'm currently looking at the draft, and I'm basing a lot of it on "intangibles" and character issues, while trying to keep in mind the player's God-given gift, the only ones I think the Texans would be after are Talib, Stewart, and Williams. And at the top of the board I think the Texans have Talib and Williams because they can make an immediate impact, and the Texans can pick up a RB in the third.