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badboy
04-11-2008, 05:07 PM
I think this is the time of year where teams and scouts start finding all the little problems to downgrade guys and they are looking for holes rather than seeing the good side, the things that made them rate so highly to begin with. It's kind of like if you first start dating a beautiful and smart girl, and you talk about how great she is, but after a few months you complain to your friend that she smacks her gum and has fuzz in her belly button. You've now missed the big picture that she is a 10 and a rhodes scholar, and are now nitpicking because you have way too much time on your hands.

In short, if Clady somehow drops to 18, the Texans should waste no time in sending up that card. It doesn't take much IQ to say to the big fella, see that guy over there, don't let him hit the QB got it?Reminds me of the ads for George Clooney's new movie. When the guy hits the referee running up.

LZ
04-11-2008, 06:12 PM
I think this is the time of year where teams and scouts start finding all the little problems to downgrade guys and they are looking for holes rather than seeing the good side, the things that made them rate so highly to begin with. It's kind of like if you first start dating a beautiful and smart girl, and you talk about how great she is, but after a few months you complain to your friend that she smacks her gum and has fuzz in her belly button. You've now missed the big picture that she is a 10 and a rhodes scholar, and are now nitpicking because you have way too much time on your hands.

In short, if Clady somehow drops to 18, the Texans should waste no time in sending up that card. It doesn't take much IQ to say to the big fella, see that guy over there, don't let him hit the QB got it?


This is dead on. My dad once told me about looking at linemen that in January and Febuary you see everything you like about them and then by April you can't watch film on those same players and not obsess over all the things that you don't like. It gets very nitpicky right about now.

ArlingtonTexan
04-11-2008, 06:57 PM
Lance,

John Mc mentioned Duane Brown out VT as the fifth rated OT in his blog. I have not seen or heard of him that high anywhere else...What are hearing about him?

LZ
04-11-2008, 10:22 PM
At #5 overall. I personally think the Chiefs may have the best pick in the
Draft. They will be able to get a front-line player who will help them immediately. He won't be cheap at 5, but not near the cap pop that the first 4 picks will have. That also makes the pick more marketable if they want to trade back.
But it seems that if the Chiefs are that sold on Otah, their pick because of its marketablility should allow them to move back and still get Otah. I like Otah, but 5 would be overpaying and nobody else probably values him that highly ?

Keep in mind that the best run blocking tackles in this draft are Long and Otah. The Patriots could use a tackle (7), the Ravens could use a tackle (8) and the Bengals have Willie Anderson who is getting older (9). The Saints need a tackle (10) and the Broncos are moving away from their strict zone concept (12). The Panthers will absolutely take Otah if he is there at 13. Don't underestimate a team's desire to add a big tackle who can play both spots and dominate in one phase (run blocking).

LZ
04-11-2008, 10:24 PM
Lance,

John Mc mentioned Duane Brown out VT as the fifth rated OT in his blog. I have not seen or heard of him that high anywhere else...What are hearing about him?

I mentioned back in Feb. that he was shooting up the boards and was a 2nd rounder. NFLDraftScout is finally catching up. He's a project though. He hasn't played much tackle and even though he is a good athlete with a background of playing TE, he was so sloppy with his technique when I watched him practice at the East/West practices. It is going to take him awhile to become a player and I think teams are overvaluing him personally.

BornOrange
04-14-2008, 12:32 AM
sweet- thanks for the link & Texans update. biggest surprise (to me) was just how much Jethro liked Travis Johnson, calling him a beast with ability to run sideline to sideline.

was curious about your thoughts on a possible trade down scenero involving the Seahawks. my thought is they would love to get their hands on Brandon Albert, at minimum jump ahead of Pittsburgh. In our mocks Albert is off the board so Seattle/Holmgren decide Brohm represents good future value & inusrance @ the QB position. What if however, they make a call to the Texans for the 18th pick offering their pick #25(720) plus a 2nd #55 (350) in exchange to move up #18 (900) to get Albert & Texans QB 1a. Sage Rosenfels?

it is tempting to call in with such questions but you don't realize just how fast "the draft show" flies bye, & its much more interesting to hear your guys thoughts & guests comments like Nolan Nawrocki who I thought was just outstanding :beer:
The biggest problem with this scenario is how much you are undervaluing Sage compared to the value the Texans have placed on him. Smith and Kubiak were asking for the Vikings 2nd pick for Sage, which is 8 spots earlier than Seattle's pick. In essence, you are trading Rosenfels for a 2nd round pick and moving down seven spots in the first round from #18 to #25 without receiving any compensation.

A fairer trade would be to just trade our first round pick (#18-900 points) to Seattle for their first round pick (#25-720) and third round pick (#86-160). If you insist on getting rid of Rosenfels, then add in Seattle's second round pick.

beerlover
04-14-2008, 01:55 AM
The biggest problem with this scenario is how much you are undervaluing Sage compared to the value the Texans have placed on him. Smith and Kubiak were asking for the Vikings 2nd pick for Sage, which is 8 spots earlier than Seattle's pick.

your right, I suppose more than anything a reaction to what the Vikings/Seahawks would be willing to part with. trading down & fair value seem to have a new formula which doesn't match up with the old draft value table.


In essence, you are trading Rosenfels for a 2nd round pick and moving down seven spots in the first round from #18 to #25 without receiving any compensation.

isn't a 2nd rd. pick compensation for 7 spots & Sage? it has to balance both ways. guess I don't beleive Sage value = mid level 2nd alone idonno:

A fairer trade would be to just trade our first round pick (#18-900 points) to Seattle for their first round pick (#25-720) and third round pick (#86-160). If you insist on getting rid of Rosenfels, then add in Seattle's second round pick.

that would work too, excellent idea :wesmantexanfan: (not that I'm insisting on getting rid of Rosenfels)

BornOrange
04-14-2008, 08:48 AM
isn't a 2nd rd. pick compensation for 7 spots & Sage? it has to balance both ways. guess I don't beleive Sage value = mid level 2nd alone idonno
If we are going to go by what Kubiak and Smith said Rosenfels' value is, then the answer is no. They wanted a mid-second round pick straight up for Rosenfels. In that case, Seattle would need to sweeten the pot with their third rounder to be able to move up in the first round.

Kubiak and Smith turned down Minnesota's offer of their third round pick. They may have even turned down Minnesota's offer of their third round pick which used to belong to Denver.

Minnesota's third pick (#82-180 points)
Minn-Denver third pick (#72-230 points)

Seattle's first pick (#25-720 points)
Seattle's second pick (#55-350 points)
Added together that makes 1070 points

Houston's first pick (#18-900 points)
1070-900=170

So in that equation, you are saying Sage is worth 170 points.

Smith and Kubiak have already turned down one and possibly two similar and slightly better offers.

beerlover
04-14-2008, 11:25 AM
If we are going to go by what Kubiak and Smith said Rosenfels' value is, then the answer is no. They wanted a mid-second round pick straight up for Rosenfels. In that case, Seattle would need to sweeten the pot with their third rounder to be able to move up in the first round.

Seattle's first pick (#25-720 points)
Seattle's second pick (#55-350 points)
Added together that makes 1070 points

Houston's first pick (#18-900 points)
1070-900=170

thats right, its shuffling the value to make it more attractive to another team but YOU GET A 2ND RD. PICK NOT THIRD. does that player on the board in the 2nd. add enough value over what you get in the 3rd. to throw Sage in the trade? won't know until draft day to see whos available. on the other end of the spectrum the Texans 1st rd. pick #18 could be a goldmine if the right player slips, take Jay Stew, instance,he is a player the Seahawks covet, & would put the Texans in a position of strength. would they give up their 1st & 2nd to move up for him alone? your right Sage wouldn't be included it they didn't "sweeten the pot" I think if they throw in the 3rd. that gets it done. Seattle gets Stewart & Sage. Texans have a higher 1st #25 & lose their back-up QB but add a 2nd #55 & 3rd #86

Seattle's first pick (#25-720 points)
Seattle's second pick (#55-350 points)
Seattle's third pick (#86- 160 points)
Added together that makes 1230 points

Houston's first pick (#18-900 points)
1230-900+Sage so you could give Sage a value of 330 but in reality some of that belongs to Stewart or player in 1st rd. who is coveted.

Kubiak and Smith turned down Minnesota's offer of their third round pick. They may have even turned down Minnesota's offer of their third round pick which used to belong to Denver.

you think they're asking for the Vikings 2nd rd. pick #47 (460) straight up for Sage? WOULD YOU DO THAT IF YOUR THE VIKINGS?

Minnesota's third pick (#82-180 points)
Minn-Denver third pick (#72-230 points)

do we know WHICH PICK MINNESOTA OFFERED? if it was #72 to me that is fair value, if it was #82 I would definetly have to wait to see who is left on the board :cool:

badboy
04-14-2008, 04:31 PM
Considering trades for our first, any reasonable offer to get Dallas' two firsts? If the Pacman Jones trade does not happen and Mike Jenkins is @ #18, would Dallas take #18 and our 4th for their two ones for example? I know value chart says no, but Cowboys really need a CB to come in and start and Cason and DRC may be gone by their first selection. I guess probably not, but I salivate at possiblity of Williams and then Stewart. To continue my own little dream, a 2nd for Sage landing a solid DE and then Godfrey or Chevis Jackson in third at CB. I have to stop now.

bah007
04-14-2008, 05:10 PM
Considering trades for our first, any reasonable offer to get Dallas' two firsts? If the Pacman Jones trade does not happen and Mike Jenkins is @ #18, would Dallas take #18 and our 4th for their two ones for example? I know value chart says no, but Cowboys really need a CB to come in and start and Cason and DRC may be gone by their first selection. I guess probably not, but I salivate at possiblity of Williams and then Stewart. To continue my own little dream, a 2nd for Sage landing a solid DE and then Godfrey or Chevis Jackson in third at CB. I have to stop now.

There is no reason for Dallas to trade anywhere but down.

They have three main needs: CB, RB, WR.

If the top CB's are gone then they grab Hardy, Sweed, or Thomas with the first pick & Jonhson or Jones with the second, then take a CB later on.

This draft sets up well for them. They did a fine job last year of securing that other 1st rounder.

BornOrange
04-14-2008, 10:32 PM
you think they're asking for the Vikings 2nd rd. pick #47 (460) straight up for Sage? WOULD YOU DO THAT IF YOUR THE VIKINGS?
Why not? We gave up two second round picks to get Schaub. Last year's #41 and this year's #48.


do we know WHICH PICK MINNESOTA OFFERED? if it was #72 to me that is fair value, if it was #82 I would definetly have to wait to see who is left on the board :cool:
I haven't seen anything other than that Minnesota offered a third round pick. Who knows?

Bubbajwp
04-14-2008, 10:38 PM
Why not? We gave up two second round picks to get Schaub. Last year's #41 and this year's #48.



I haven't seen anything other than that Minnesota offered a third round pick. Who knows?

Ya, but Schaub was a young pretty good QB with a bunch of potential. While sage is just sage.

Also we were pretty desperate for a QB to start. The vikings just want a vet QB to backup (mind went blank) there young QB.

Trap_Star
04-14-2008, 11:56 PM
Ya, but Schaub was a young pretty good QB with a bunch of potential. While sage is just sage.

Also we were pretty desperate for a QB to start. The vikings just want a vet QB to backup (mind went blank) there young QB.

Tarvaris Jackson.

BornOrange
04-15-2008, 08:31 AM
Yeah, Sage is just Sage.

A guy who knows our offense, has earned the respect of his teammates, and backs up a guy who hasn't proven he can stay healthy a full season.

badboy
04-15-2008, 08:57 AM
There is no reason for Dallas to trade anywhere but down.

They have three main needs: CB, RB, WR.

If the top CB's are gone then they grab Hardy, Sweed, or Thomas with the first pick & Jonhson or Jones with the second, then take a CB later on.

This draft sets up well for them. They did a fine job last year of securing that other 1st rounder.That is my opinion also. I really think Atlanta is projected to do well in first two rounds also. I'll be surprised if Texans are able to trade down. If a good CB,LT or RB is at 18 that will probably be the move. I guess I can still let my imagination run wild.

threetoedpete
04-15-2008, 02:58 PM
There is no reason for Dallas to trade anywhere but down.

They have three main needs: CB, RB, WR.

If the top CB's are gone then they grab Hardy, Sweed, or Thomas with the first pick & Jonhson or Jones with the second, then take a CB later on.

This draft sets up well for them. They did a fine job last year of securing that other 1st rounder.

Well with several high end mocks having D Mac slipping past Oakland....I'm just saying....the move up price apears to be slipping everyday for J.J. . New stadium... PSLs to sell. K.C. gets two propect instead of one . Polks alawys have had a high end back when they made SB runs. Get a Cb or Wr value anywhere in the draft...only one D Mac.

beerlover
04-16-2008, 01:34 AM
using the latest draft trade chart provided by ProFootballTalk.com http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

this trade is a perfect fit for both teams-

Houston trades Sage Rosenfels to the Vikings for-

-swap 1st rd. picks 17th for 18th (1070 - 1040 = 30 points)
-Minnesota's third pick #73 (230)
-the total is = to the 2nd pick of the 3rd rd. #66 (230 + 30 = 260)

nunusguy
04-18-2008, 08:36 AM
LZ got really excited about Quenton Moses, Georgia DE, in yesterdays show
even though he has doubts about Moses being a 3-down NFL DE. And though
he defintely likes Derrick Harvey he dosen't think there's much chance he's there at #18.
I don't think Moses is a first-rounder, but LZ talks like this guy is the best pure edge rusher in this years Draft ?

Trap_Star
04-18-2008, 08:54 AM
LZ got really excited about Quenton Moses, Georgia DE, in yesterdays show
even though he has doubts about Moses being a 3-down NFL DE. And though
he defintely likes Derrick Harvey he dosen't think there's much chance he's there at #18.
I don't think Moses is a first-rounder, but LZ talks like this guy is the best pure edge rusher in this years Draft ?

i think it was Marcus Howard (UGA DE). Moses was drafted last year in the 3rd and was cut by the raiders before the season even started.

LZ
04-18-2008, 09:03 AM
Quentin Groves

nunusguy
04-18-2008, 09:09 AM
Quentin Groves
LZ you're up early !
And thanks for the clarification. I wasn't sure about the name, but thought
you said Moses but I'm glad you corrected me.
Your show was great last night ! That 60 minutes went by like 6 minutes and I'm looking forward to your 2-hour finale next Thursday.

Trap_Star
04-18-2008, 09:10 AM
Quentin Groves

haha...him too. what's the earliest you see him going? arizona at 16?

bah007
04-18-2008, 10:13 AM
LZ got really excited about Quenton Moses, Georgia DE, in yesterdays show
even though he has doubts about Moses being a 3-down NFL DE. And though
he defintely likes Derrick Harvey he dosen't think there's much chance he's there at #18.
I don't think Moses is a first-rounder, but LZ talks like this guy is the best pure edge rusher in this years Draft ?

It was Quentin Groves.

And he's from Auburn.

JWarren14
04-29-2008, 03:29 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/080429&sportCat=nfl&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos1

Good article on how over-analyzed the draft is. Although its still fun to do.

bah007
04-29-2008, 03:52 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/080429&sportCat=nfl&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos1

Good article on how over-analyzed the draft is. Although its still fun to do.

Houston: The NFL's dullest team stays true to form -- can you name anyone the Texans chose this weekend? Cheat here -- one choice is lauded for "adequate feet."

The media still loves us!

badboy
04-29-2008, 04:14 PM
The media still loves us!How many tickets does ESPN purchase? signed Robert (Bob) McNair