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Texans_Chick
01-03-2008, 09:15 PM
Final Stats are up on all the teams in the league on Football Outsiders.

The Texans final rankings are

Offense -13
Defense -30
Special Teams-3

Check out the detailed rankings here (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/12/31/ramblings/dvoa-ratings/5956/).

Stark, isn't it?

Here's the specific rankings for defense (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php):

Last year, they were 31st in the league, so they improved by one spot relative to their peers.

Against the pass they were 27th. Against the rush they were 29th.


Given all the defensive coordinators who have been kicked to the curb so far, how come Richard Smith being a gonner doesn't get into the discussion by the Chronicle?

Solomon has spoken about it some, how he doesn't like some of the defensive scheme calls.
Zierlein says he's seen some bright spots with scheme.
McClain has a soft spot for ex-Oilers. He talked about fans in general calling for the heads of lots of Texans coaches and through Smith into the mix, but given how the play of the defense is an albatross to the team, I think having a Smith only discussion is valid.
Justice doesn't talk Texans unless it has something to do with the head coach, quarterback or Mario. He says hey, don't know how much is player available due to injury v. coaches/scheme.
Manfull, I'm not sure have any opinions different than anyone elses. Campbell is too new to the beat.
Robertson has interesting stuff to say about the Texans, but not of this sort of nature.

Stats don't tell the whole story. Certainly, it would have helped the defense to not have so many offensive turnovers and get put on their heels a lot defending short fields.

Even so, when facing good offenses, the Texans look horrible.
When facing bad offenses, the Texans have to hope for the offenses to make mistakes. Errant throws. Or bad play calling (like giving up on the run when they don't need to).

The Jags game is typical of the type of defense the Texans played all year. They were playing ahead for most of the game. At home. Against a bunch of backups. And looked like poop on a stick.

I know a lot of people might say that there needs some gelling. I can see that on the offense--there's enough bright parts of that where I can see that getting to know the offense better will help.

The only thing I see on defense is smelling. Just a few outstanding individual efforts in a pile of goo. I don't think Smith is going to get canned, but I sure would like something to make me feel better about the defense going into year 3 Kubiak other than, gee our guys will be more experienced.

Oh, and Joe Marciano for president.:texflag:

infantrycak
01-03-2008, 09:44 PM
Follow on stats from Cold, Hard, Football:

Passing yards per attempt--5th--huge improvement.
Defensive passer rating--30th--continuing a tradition of making bad QB's look good.
Offensive Hog Index--13th--big improvement, mainly due to QB rather than OL.
Defensive Hog Index--31st--can't stop run or pass on consistent basis.
Big Play Index--20th--If we didn't shoot ourselves with so many fumbles and INT's.
Relativity Index--16th--hey mid pack is an improvement.
Bendability Index--20th
Scoreability Index--11th--big improvement, not hollow yards but points.
Special Teams--3rd--Yay coach Joe.

Link (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2002_Our_season-ending_Quality_Stats_spectacular%21.html)

The Pencil Neck
01-03-2008, 10:35 PM
Follow on stats from Cold, Hard, Football:

Passing yards per attempt--5th--huge improvement.
Defensive passer rating--30th--continuing a tradition of making bad QB's look good.
Offensive Hog Index--13th--big improvement, mainly due to QB rather than OL.
Defensive Hog Index--31st--can't stop run or pass on consistent basis.
Big Play Index--20th--If we didn't shoot ourselves with so many fumbles and INT's.
Relativity Index--16th--hey mid pack is an improvement.
Bendability Index--20th
Scoreability Index--11th--big improvement, not hollow yards but points.
Special Teams--3rd--Yay coach Joe.

Link (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2002_Our_season-ending_Quality_Stats_spectacular%21.html)


The interesting thing here is that we were tied for 7th with big plays made but we were tied for 30th in big plays give up.

If we could clean up the turnovers (and fix that whole defense thing), we'd be monsters.

Monsters, I say!

Pantherstang84
01-03-2008, 10:49 PM
The interesting thing here is that we were tied for 7th with big plays made but we were tied for 30th in big plays give up.

If we could clean up the turnovers (and fix that whole defense thing), we'd be monsters.

Monsters, I say!

Pony, flaming meatball, and kitty kat eating big hairy monsters!

Seriously, I agree with the general sentiment of something has to be done about the defense. Too much money and talent to be sucking bilge water like they do.

ATX
01-03-2008, 11:25 PM
Anyone know how we are ranked on sacks given up? Can't find it.....

infantrycak
01-03-2008, 11:33 PM
Anyone know how we are ranked on sacks given up? Can't find it.....

Surprising--thou's stat finding skills are weak.

6th in the NFL.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 5 teams ahead are in the playoffs--Green Bay and New England.

ATX
01-03-2008, 11:41 PM
Surprising--thou's stat finding skills are weak.

6th in the NFL.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 5 teams ahead are in the playoffs--Green Bay and New England.

Just lazy....I checked nfl.com and didn't find it within 5 minutes and gave up. Not too big into stats so I don't really know where to look. But thanks for letting me know, I knew we had to be pretty good in that category this year.

Hagar
01-03-2008, 11:50 PM
Follow on stats from Cold, Hard, Football:

Passing yards per attempt--5th--huge improvement.
Defensive passer rating--30th--continuing a tradition of making bad QB's look good.
Offensive Hog Index--13th--big improvement, mainly due to QB rather than OL.
Defensive Hog Index--31st--can't stop run or pass on consistent basis.
Big Play Index--20th--If we didn't shoot ourselves with so many fumbles and INT's.
Relativity Index--16th--hey mid pack is an improvement.
Bendability Index--20th
Scoreability Index--11th--big improvement, not hollow yards but points.
Special Teams--3rd--Yay coach Joe.

Link (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2002_Our_season-ending_Quality_Stats_spectacular%21.html)Interesti ng link. I like the names: Hog Index, Bendability Index.

I've always classified Smith's defense as a Bend but Don't Break defense. Apparently, it bends, bends, and then breaks! :whip:

I've stated on a couple of different occasions that coach Smith would get a pass this year because of all the injuries. I don't know that I agree with this line of thought, but its just a gut feeling I get when I watch Kubes' pressers.

Considering the strength of our defense is the front seven, I don't think you cans sit back and play the Tampa 2 all day. You've got to be a little blitz happy to take the pressure off the DBs. Stick the corners up on the line and play bump and run. Its a very risky defense the Raider's use to use a lot. Of course they had hall of fame corners at the time so it wasn't as risky for them as it would be for us.

Specnatz
01-03-2008, 11:52 PM
I had not looked at the final stats as of yet, but all I can say about this is.



D A M N !!

Thorn
01-04-2008, 06:47 AM
Other points to make on Texans defense at the end of the year:

24th in yards allowed per game

22nd is points given up per game

21st in total sacks

10th in total tackles

30th in interceptions

Hervoyel
01-04-2008, 09:21 AM
Much worse than I had expected. I had seen something about a week ago that had us at 24th overall in defense. Obviously that didn't tell the whole story.

I continue to be unimpressed with Richard Smith and his defense. They're simply not good. Even when they were mostly healthy this year they were not very good. Sometimes you saw other teams inexplicably just stop doing what was working and kill their own drives but I don't think very many people were fooled into believing that this was a reflection of our defensive "might". Miami comes to mind when they just quit giving Brown the football for no apparent reason, we hadn't stopped him once all day.

Dallas_Texan
01-04-2008, 09:50 AM
Serious Question.....

I know Kubes is in love with Richard Smith, what would you say is the honest probability of us getting rid of him this year?? In your realistic opinons?

nero THE zero
01-04-2008, 10:41 AM
Serious Question.....

I know Kubes is in love with Richard Smith, what would you say is the honest probability of us getting rid of him this year?? In your realistic opinons?

From what I've seen there's been no indication that it's even an option. I'd go with an optimistic 10%.

badboy
01-04-2008, 10:49 AM
We trust the head coach and GM with player selection, training, etc. As much as I am unsatisfied with D, I guess if Smith is here in 08, I know why.

Texans_Chick
01-04-2008, 12:08 PM
Serious Question.....

I know Kubes is in love with Richard Smith, what would you say is the honest probability of us getting rid of him this year?? In your realistic opinons?

2%

The Texans are pretty good about keeping information in house, and Kubiak rarely dumps guys in the grease publicly. The Texans always prefer to let people leave with dignity. And are niiiiiiice.

So, if they are double plus unhappy with Smith to the extent of wanting to give him his walking papers, they are being pretty sneaky about it. They've let guys go in the past without much telegraphing of it.

Given what has been said publicly and the defense of Smith publicly, and the praise for him when good stuff happens, I am guessing he stays. He gets a pass because of the injured secondary and the rebuilding of the entire defense. And that gelling thing.

I believe he is over his head. Yes, there have been injuries, but I haven't seen enough bright spots on this defense to think it will get significantly better. There have been some great individual efforts on the defense, but nothing that suggests to me that the coaches can make this defense better than the sum of its parts.

Wolf
01-04-2008, 12:19 PM
I believe he is over his head. Yes, there have been injuries, but I haven't seen enough bright spots on this defense to think it will get significantly better. There have been some great individual efforts on the defense, but nothing that suggests to me that the coaches can make this defense better than the sum of its parts.


I agree with that. I thought at the beginning of the season we would have a better defense than the colts with all their personnel changes, they adjusted quite nicely on the fly and I hate to admit that.

aj.
01-04-2008, 12:22 PM
A positive DVOA represents that the offense is more likely to score, and a negative DVOA represents that the defense is more likely to stop them

Without considering where the opponent's drive started?

The Texans offense's glut of turnovers put the defense in bad field position on a regular basis - especially during that bad mid-season stretch.

I take stats like this with a grain. You certainly can't take stats like this and determine if good or bad is the result of coaching or talent - or what combination of the two is the most accurate.

76Texan
01-04-2008, 12:47 PM
Maybe the more important stats are these:

We played 6 games against our divisional rivals who all made the play-offs, plus SD and TB.

The Browns were in it to the end.
The Saints, and the Panthers would have had a better shot if we hadn't taken them down.
As well as the Broncos, albeit a very long shot.

That wasn't an easy schedule.
And we had a chance to win another 2-3 games.

Lucky
01-04-2008, 01:02 PM
Without considering where the opponent's drive started?

There is a stat for the initial LOS on another page (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats.php).

The Texans were 24th in opponents initial LOS (31.95 yard line)

The Texans were 24th in offense initial LOS (29.48 yard line)

I think the answer to whether the coaches or players need to get better is: Yes. To both. Having to play Faggins, Hutchins, Fletcher, Wynn at corner put the defense on it's heels. That Brown and Demps don't have great range or coverage skills probably made the coaching staff reticent to blitz. So instead, offenses just picked the defense apart with short to intermediate passes.

If the Texans shore up their secondary, will the coaches be able to change their scheme and become more aggressive? I would think so. And remember, the Texans defense has a lot of young talent that has their best football ahead of them. I just don't think it's a good idea to force a new coaching staff on guys like Williams, Ryans, & Okoye at this point in their career. Give them another year in the league before throwing a new system at them.

dtran04
01-04-2008, 01:09 PM
2%

The Texans are pretty good about keeping information in house, and Kubiak rarely dumps guys in the grease publicly. The Texans always prefer to let people leave with dignity. And are niiiiiiice.

So, if they are double plus unhappy with Smith to the extent of wanting to give him his walking papers, they are being pretty sneaky about it. They've let guys go in the past without much telegraphing of it.

Given what has been said publicly and the defense of Smith publicly, and the praise for him when good stuff happens, I am guessing he stays. He gets a pass because of the injured secondary and the rebuilding of the entire defense. And that gelling thing.

I believe he is over his head. Yes, there have been injuries, but I haven't seen enough bright spots on this defense to think it will get significantly better. There have been some great individual efforts on the defense, but nothing that suggests to me that the coaches can make this defense better than the sum of its parts.

I saw that an assistant DB coach was let go. It pretty much went under the radar.

76Texan
01-04-2008, 01:18 PM
Also, the TOs put the D in precarious positions in several games, including the Titans game at home, and the two games in CLV & ATL.

The D made their share of mistakes, but they also pulled a few stops. The Offense, on the other hand, made more mistakes for the team to recover from.

Only with a better defensive backfield that can apply a little more pressure from either the safety of LB position.

austintexanite
01-04-2008, 02:24 PM
Rex Ryan would be a good fit if he does not end up the HC at Baltimore. We will have to address the secondary this offseason. I'm not expecting Dunta to be his former-self until 09, so we are going to have to get a steal in the draft of pay some good money in free agency.

Texans_Chick
01-04-2008, 02:45 PM
Without considering where the opponent's drive started?

The Texans offense's glut of turnovers put the defense in bad field position on a regular basis - especially during that bad mid-season stretch.

I take stats like this with a grain. You certainly can't take stats like this and determine if good or bad is the result of coaching or talent - or what combination of the two is the most accurate.


Exactly, I acknowledged the field position problemas in my initial post and how that may effect stats. Even so, Smith tenure with the Texans has been a little scary.

Starting with the first three games of last season which were beyond scary.

Or even this last game against the Jags backups. The Texans were ahead. They turned the ball over once. And the defense had few answers.

My concerns are not just statistical though they confirm my feelings about stuff. It just is so grim to be yelling your head off for third and longs and then having the other team convert it for the first down. Repeatedly.

I just wish I had the same sort of feeling I get watching the offense--that with a little more time, it will be something.

There shouldn't be a reason that going into year 3 of Smith being DC that I still haven't seen what a Smith defense is supposed to look like, other than praying that the other team shoots itself in the foot. And at the end of the day, I can't look at Smith's body of work with other teams to trust that things are going to get better once he gets "his" players, whoever his type of player is.

For a victory, that Jag game was very hard to watch.

HOU-TEX
01-04-2008, 02:52 PM
Exactly, I acknowledged the field position problemas in my initial post and how that may effect stats. Even so, Smith tenure with the Texans has been a little scary.

Starting with the first three games of last season which were beyond scary.

Or even this last game against the Jags backups. The Texans were ahead. They turned the ball over once. And the defense had few answers.

My concerns are not just statistical though they confirm my feelings about stuff. It just is so grim to be yelling your head off for third and longs and then having the other team convert it for the first down. Repeatedly.

I just wish I had the same sort of feeling I get watching the offense--that with a little more time, it will be something.

There shouldn't be a reason that going into year 3 of Smith being DC that I still haven't seen what a Smith defense is supposed to look like, other than praying that the other team shoots itself in the foot. And at the end of the day, I can't look at Smith's body of work with other teams to trust that things are going to get better once he gets "his" players, whoever his type of player is.

For a victory, that Jag game was very hard to watch.

Due to CB's playing a very soft zone. It ticked me off when our CB's played 7-10 yds soft when the other team only needs 5.

I agree. Thank goodness for excellent Special Teams play. :)

Pantherstang84
01-04-2008, 08:21 PM
Due to CB's playing a very soft zone. It ticked me off when our CB's played 7-10 yds soft when the other team only needs 5.

I agree. Thank goodness for excellent Special Teams play. :)

No doubt. Well at least I have 8 months to recover my voice from yelling at Smith (through the TV) so much. Extremely frustrating to see 10 yard cushions and dropping 8 back into coverage only to see QBs like Joey Harrington convert another 3rd and 8.

When our defense makes Harrington, Lemon, and VY look like they should be going to Hawaii, something just isn't right.

The Pencil Neck
01-04-2008, 08:48 PM
No doubt. Well at least I have 8 months to recover my voice from yelling at Smith (through the TV) so much. Extremely frustrating to see 10 yard cushions and dropping 8 back into coverage only to see QBs like Joey Harrington convert another 3rd and 8.

When our defense makes Harrington, Lemon, and VY look like they should be going to Hawaii, something just isn't right.

What's even worse is that the defense was supposed to be the strength of this team going into the season. The last 13 games of last season, we were OK defensively. I really expected that to carry over especially with the improvements and experience we'd gained.

I was worried about the lack of changes made in the secondary but I thought we were going to play a lot better than we ended up playing.

TEXANRED
01-04-2008, 09:25 PM
What's even worse is that the defense was supposed to be the strength of this team going into the season. The last 13 games of last season, we were OK defensively. I really expected that to carry over especially with the improvements and experience we'd gained.

I was worried about the lack of changes made in the secondary but I thought we were going to play a lot better than we ended up playing.

I never did get why people thought the Defense would be the strength of this team.

Our LB core is H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E. Greenwoods el stinkos and I have no idea what the Danny Clark/Anderson thing they have going on over there. Neither one of them are any good. Please spare me the Greenwood stats, he can't cover, can't generate pressure, and does not hit the hole with authority.

Unfortunately its not even our biggest weakness. The DLine still sucks. Williams is really the only one worth mentioning, and like Williams last year Amobi gets a pass b/c he is a rookie. TJ is not the run stopping space hog we need him to be and we have no DE to play opposite of Williams. When we first drafted Amobi everyone said he is horrible at playing the run but is a stellar pass rush. I can not argue that assessment after what I saw of him this year. So lets hope he learns how to play the run next year.

CB wise we would be golden if DRob didn't suffer his injury. Bennett looked really good and would be a good complement to Robinson. Unfortunately I don't think he will be back next year so we need to find a replacement now to hold the fort down till he gets back.

Our safety position improved with Demps. If we resign him it will be a big step in the right direction.

So I would have to classify our DLine then our LB's as our top two needs on defense.

b0ng
01-04-2008, 09:51 PM
I never did get why people thought the Defense would be the strength of this team.

So I would have to classify our DLine then our LB's as our top two needs on defense.

I'm pretty sure that the reasoning was over the last 10 games of the '06 season we were a top 10 defense (so to speak), and that would be built upon. After David Carr's final season as a starter, I don't think anybody knew what to make of our offense, seeing as how we would be starting a new QB, a new RB, and probably 2 completely different receivers. The O-line would mostly be the same (Which could be a good or a bad thing), and the TE position would be the same. I think defense was going to be a strength almost by default.

I would like to say that I agree with you wholeheartedly about our OLB's. I do think that Greenwood is quite overrated (And overpaid too) and only turns in 1 - 3 really good games a year. You'll notice that we got burned on runs outside and on screen passes a lot this year, and I think that's our OLB's fault more than anything else.

The D-line, I think, could probably use a later round draft pick to bolster itself. It's tough to find those DE's and DT's in the later rounds (DT's especially) that are going to make an impact in their rookie year, but it can happen. I don't really think FA is the way to go with that, unless we get some huge sack monster to go along with Mario.

I also don't see how we keep Johnson, who absolutely got creamed by the run quite a bit this year. All he has is his attitude, and I would rather jettison that, so that we don't have to worry about stupid penalties again. He needs to take a huge paycut to stay with this team I believe.

EDIT: After all that however, I still think we need another top flight CB. Would having 2 really good CB's and a good up and coming CB hurt us? Especially with Nickel and Dime packages?

kastofsna
01-04-2008, 10:18 PM
Miami: 32nd in defense, 29th in offense. explains a lot.

hookinreds
01-04-2008, 11:16 PM
The D-line, I think, could probably use a later round draft pick to bolster itself. It's tough to find those DE's and DT's in the later rounds (DT's especially) that are going to make an impact in their rookie year, but it can happen. I don't really think FA is the way to go with that, unless we get some huge sack monster to go along with Mario.
At this time, I have no idea if someone will take a flyer on him, or if he will drop. If he drops, I would like to see what we could do with Tommy Blake. I think he has his situation cleared up and things in order. Has a lot of work to do in the off season, but the kid has talent, and speed. Not sure if we could use him as a DE, or possible an OLB, but if the price it right.

b0ng
01-04-2008, 11:25 PM
At this time, I have no idea if someone will take a flyer on him, or if he will drop. If he drops, I would like to see what we could do with Tommy Blake. I think he has his situation cleared up and things in order. Has a lot of work to do in the off season, but the kid has talent, and speed. Not sure if we could use him as a DE, or possible an OLB, but if the price it right.

At 6'4" and 243 lbs he seems a little undersized going as a DE. I could see him being an OLB. Well, actually if he's got boatloads of speed maybe he can be one of those smaller Elvis Dumervile types that can get to the QB in a hurry even if they are approximately half the size of a normal O-lineman.

I think we could see a lot of UDFA's come through the TC this year. Those kind of guys seem to be Rick Smith specialties.