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View Full Version : KC Joyner's analysis of Texans


Texans_Chick
07-24-2007, 11:06 AM
It is worth a read:

Published on Matt's DGDB&D blog (http://gotexans.blogspot.com/2007/07/like-iliad-but-with-graphs.html).

Vinny
07-24-2007, 11:18 AM
Joyner tends to look at and assume too much on raw stats (historically) too much for my tastes....he was the guy predicting Carr is the next greatest QB based on his passer rating a year or so ago. A good read all the same...thanka

real
07-24-2007, 11:29 AM
I agreed with him on some things...

not so much with his statistical analysis...

HJam72
07-24-2007, 11:32 AM
Didn't read all of it, and I'll get back to it later, but:

1) Do we really expect Faggins to show marked improvement this year? I didn't even know he was injured last year.

2) CC Brown average at FS??? Earl bad at coverage from SS position? Have I had this all backwards?

Work nights. Going to sleep. See ya.

barberman
07-24-2007, 11:42 AM
Some of his article makes good sense, but I totally disagree with him on A. J., In past years when Carr could and would occasionally get the ball down field he produced and with Schaub I expect the vertical game to be much improved from last year.

gtexan02
07-24-2007, 11:45 AM
The Earl/Brown debate makes our drafting an SS a little more obvious

I think 6-10 to 8-8 is a very fair assumption

kravix
07-24-2007, 12:07 PM
KC's write up was pretty good. Although it would be nice he shared more of my optimism and gave us a little more good stuff. He didnt spout off the normal bs that media types do, and showed that he actually did some research.

I have to agree with him on his DRob analysis. He hasnt produced near as well as his rookie year. Hopefully he comes out of the slump this year, with better safety play and DL penetration.

I agree with his assesment of Faggins also. Petey is a good corner IMO, not a shutdown corner but good. He isnt very consistent at times though. HE will make some good plays and some great explosive plays. But then he gives up plays, and plays poorly. In his defence he was injured last year even when he came back. And again some can be attributed to poor safety and DL play.

I never supprted a Veggie pick in the draft, and MW was a great pick IMO. I am glad that he got some honest review here rather than the blah blah kicking selves in the but blah blah. He did give him his due as a rookie, which many people refuse to do becuase of his draft position. The one thing that he didnt mention about MW play is the lack penetration and production of the DT's on passing plays, it sure does help the DE if the OL has to worry about more than one guy and the MLB blitz.

All in all it was a good article, and he is right that we have a rough schedule. Based on our schedule 6-10 wouldnt upset me, of course I would rather see my 9-7 prediction come true. As long as we see improvement.

All in all a great read, thanks for the linky.

Vinny
07-24-2007, 12:27 PM
When your leading sack "artist" has 4 sacks...no DB's are going to look especially good. I think Dunta will be fine and Faggins is a good cover corner...but lousy in run support. Just watch Curtis Martin light him up in that last Jets game for a TD on a routine tackle.

Lucky
07-24-2007, 12:28 PM
Some of his article makes good sense, but I totally disagree with him on A. J., In past years when Carr could and would occasionally get the ball down field he produced and with Schaub I expect the vertical game to be much improved from last year.
The numbers Joyner used were strictly from '06. Carr & A.J. did hook up deep in '04, with Andre making some spectacular grabs. Which is why the results from '06 were so vexing to many, including Kubiak.

I don't see the mystery as to why Moulds is currently unsigned. Moulds can't get deep any longer, so basically he's limited to running short to intermediate patterns in the middle of the field. Eric is now a 3rd down WR, but he wants to be paid as a top #2 WR. I expect Moulds to sign somewhere after training camps break for little more than the vet minimum.

What Joyner failed to take into account in his analysis of Dunta is the Texans lack of a consistent pass rush. When a CB has to cover a reciever for an above average amount of time, the odds are in the WR's favor. Give Robinson a pass rush, and then let's look at the numbers. Plus, I'd like to look at WRs yards after catch matched up against Dunta. He's one of the premier tacklers in the league at his position. That has to account for something.

Vinny
07-24-2007, 12:30 PM
The numbers Joyner used were strictly from '06. Carr & A.J. did hook up deep in '04, with Andre making some spectacular grabs. Which is why the results from '06 were so vexing to many, including Kubiak.

many of those catches were Carr's patented "jump ball lob".....the stats looked good but the passes were up for grabs on many of those occasions.

Lucky
07-24-2007, 12:40 PM
many of those catches were Carr's patented "jump ball lob".....the stats looked good but the passes were up for grabs on many of those occasions.
You should give a great athlete like AJ chances to make plays like that. He made them in '04, but not in the limited number of attempts in '05 & '06. Give great athletes the opportunity to make great plays.

Vinny
07-24-2007, 12:43 PM
You should give a great athlete like AJ chances to make plays like that. He made them in '04, but not in the limited number of attempts in '05 & '06. Give great athletes the opportunity to make great plays. sure, but if that is your only vertical game...you are stuck with a bad team dinking and dunking and hoping AJ comes down with jump balls (a jump ball means that it is anyone's ball)...sure it worked a few times (heck aj is a hell of an athlete he is just going to win some of those), but we need something to work year in-year out. Call that play once or twice a game on the sideline. If that is your only vertical game you have issues as an offense...as we all know.

HOU-TEX
07-24-2007, 12:47 PM
You should give a great athlete like AJ chances to make plays like that. He made them in '04, but not in the limited number of attempts in '05 & '06. Give great athletes the opportunity to make great plays.

IIRC, the deep balls this past year weren't thrown like the balls in '04 (if that makes any sense). This past season the ball appeared to have more of a rainbow arch to it, causing AJ to slow up or come back to it. It also gave the DBs time to react to the ball as well.

Hopefully we don't have that problem this year. From what little I've seen of Schaub's deep ball it appears it'll get the job done nicely.:shades:

Lucky
07-24-2007, 12:54 PM
Call that play once or twice a game on the sideline.
Anytime AJ is singled up on a CB, the QB should have the option to check to a go route. Johnson 1 on 1 is the only mismatch this team currently has. In the past, the Texans have used Andre a bass ackwards manner. He should be going deep, drawing coverage and opening up the middle of the field for the other receivers. Not as glorified possession receiver, running 5 yard slants. The more AJ goes deep, the more opportunities for the rest of the receivers.

gtexan02
07-24-2007, 12:57 PM
All of this complaining about Joyner's negatives sounds like a lot of excuse mongering to me.

"The DBs looked bad, but its because of the DL"
"The DL looked bad, but its because our star was moved around."
"MW looked bad, but its because he was a rookie."

Lets look at all of these in turn:
1. "The DBs were bad because of the DL"
Verdict? Excuse.
I know there were a few times when it looked like the opposing QB literally had 20 seconds to choose where to throw. But I realistically believe that was more an exception thant he rule. What about all the other times?
Sure great DL can help an average DB corp look better, but saying that our DL was at fault for our DBs poor play seems to be a big excuse in my opinion. You may as well say our DBs were so bad the opposing QB could throw to anyone he pleased, thus negating any attempt at a pass rush.

The top 5 teams for least passing yards per game were:
Oakland
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Carolina
Miami

And guess what? Only Miami ranked in the top 5 of for sacks. Chicago was the only other team on that list to rank in the top 10 in sacks.
None of those teams ranked in the top 5 in rushing defense.

The other two, about MW, also seem to be excuses. I dont think a first round pick should EVER be given a year to "adjust" unless he's a QB. If you are taken #1 overall, and you aren't a QB, you better be ready to contribute. Did his injury slow him down later in the year? Maybe
But the fact is he was publically attacked for taking plays off already (this was something we KNEW about before hand, too) and didn't make an impact until the Miami game.

Im as optimistic about the next season as anyone, but I think its important to keep a realistic viewpoint on where our team stands.
Its easy to say "our <insert position here> would be great if only <insert person or other position here> would have played better"
But-Every team can say that

Matt
07-24-2007, 12:59 PM
Keep in mind that, as far as I can tell, this is only an excerpt from the Texans preview. I assume some of it would have made more sense in the context of the whole article.

I do agree that he is giving Faggins a free pass, especially since he said in an email that Faggins was a good nickel CB but not good enough to play CB2 in the NFL.

Also, as to the stuff about David Carr, Joyner has admitted before that he completely airballed on Carr.

real
07-24-2007, 01:00 PM
Anytime AJ is singled up on a CB, the QB should have the option to check to a go route. Johnson 1 on 1 is the only mismatch this team currently has. In the past, the Texans have used Andre a bass ackwards manner. He should be going deep, drawing coverage and opening up the middle of the field for the other receivers. Not as glorified possession receiver, running 5 yard slants. The more AJ goes deep, the more opportunities for the rest of the receivers.

I disagree.

I think the short and intermediate stuff is fine.

I think using him to mostly go deep is a waste....

A reciever like Andre needs to run an array of routes...

Tailgate
07-24-2007, 01:04 PM
Carr responded by having one of his worst games of the year. He forced a pass into true triple coverage in the middle of the first quarter that resulted in an interception. (I say true triple coverage because most of the time when you hear an announcer say there was triple coverage on a play, it means that there were three players in visual range of the receiver. On this play, Andre Johnson actually had three players in coverage against him).

This is exactly the play where my loyalties started to turn for good.

Lucky
07-24-2007, 01:13 PM
The top 5 teams for least passing yards per game were:
Oakland
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Carolina
Miami

And guess what? Only Miami ranked in the top 5 of for sacks. Chicago was the only other team on that list to rank in the top 10 in sacks.
None of those teams ranked in the top 5 in rushing defense.
Well, there you go. When it's a lot easier to run the ball against a defense, that defense's numbers against the pass will look a lot better than they should. Oakland defense was ran at more (542 attempts) than any team in the league. Indy was #2. Why pass the ball when you can run? It's no surprise that the Texans were effective against these 2 teams late in the season, with no passing game whatsoever.

If you've seen the majority of Texans games, you'd know that the Texans have lacked a consistent pass rush from the start. I think Robinson would be more aggressive in coverage if he knew the QB would have to get the ball out quicker. I could be wrong, and Dunta might never become a top corner. But, let's see a pass rush before making that judgement.

Vinny
07-24-2007, 01:14 PM
Call that play once or twice a game on the sideline.Anytime AJ is singled up on a CB, the QB should have the option to check to a go route.
yeah...that happens once or twice a game

Vinny
07-24-2007, 01:17 PM
All of this complaining about Joyner's negatives sounds like a lot of excuse mongering to me.

"The DBs looked bad, but its because of the DL"
"The DL looked bad, but its because our star was moved around."
"MW looked bad, but its because he was a rookie."

Lets look at all of these in turn:
1. "The DBs were bad because of the DL"
Verdict? Excuse.

verdict = reality too. If you don't have a good pass rush, NFL offenses are too good to cover receivers endlessly. It doesn't matter who you have in coverage if you don't pressure the QB.

real
07-24-2007, 01:20 PM
verdict = reality too. If you don't have a good pass rush, NFL offenses are too good to cover receivers endlessly. It doesn't matter who you have in coverage if you don't pressure the QB.

I agree with this. I don't think there is a corner in the leauge that would have looked anything past pedestrian behind our pass rush.

dalemurphy
07-24-2007, 01:43 PM
Didn't read all of it, and I'll get back to it later, but:

1) Do we really expect Faggins to show marked improvement this year? I didn't even know he was injured last year.

2) CC Brown average at FS??? Earl bad at coverage from SS position? Have I had this all backwards?

Work nights. Going to sleep. See ya.

If you weren't even aware that Faggins was injured last year then you probably shouldn't trust your analysis on the team. He was on the PUP list for the first month. Once he returned, the defensive went from being the worst in the league to being an above average defense.

Texans_Chick
07-24-2007, 05:24 PM
The other two, about MW, also seem to be excuses. I dont think a first round pick should EVER be given a year to "adjust" unless he's a QB. If you are taken #1 overall, and you aren't a QB, you better be ready to contribute. Did his injury slow him down later in the year? Maybe. But the fact is he was publically attacked for taking plays off already (this was something we KNEW about before hand, too) and didn't make an impact until the Miami game.

Who said it and when? How is this a fact? Because KC Joyner said so? (*They* said that Julius Peppers took plays off in college, and that didn't work out so bad for the Panthers).

I am guessing if you are getting two pain shots in your foot each game, that might effect you some.

I didn't see what he was saying as excuses, but rather suggesting to everyone that you need to see more stuff before you can write anyone off or send them to the HOF.

Overall, re the piece, I enjoy reading the statastic view of things, but yeah, it isn't a substitute for figuring out why things are the way they are.

Double Barrel
07-24-2007, 05:49 PM
Anytime AJ is singled up on a CB, the QB should have the option to check to a go route.

Of course, there is a requirement that the QB must have the ability to recognize man coverage, as well as the responsibility granted to him to make adjustments accordingly.

The other two, about MW, also seem to be excuses. I dont think a first round pick should EVER be given a year to "adjust" unless he's a QB. If you are taken #1 overall, and you aren't a QB, you better be ready to contribute.

HoF DE Bruce Smith said it can take a couple of years for rookies to acclimate themselves to playing defensive line. It is unrealistic to expect a Pro Bowl performance from a rookie defensive end. Next to QB, it is one of the tougher positions to learn and master in the NFL.

And Mario, in spite of his injury, was ready to contribute. I remember a tipped pass against Miami and a forced fumble against Indy, which are just two plays off of top of my head. I think you are putting way too much emphasis and importance on draft position.

dalemurphy
07-24-2007, 07:38 PM
And Mario, in spite of his injury, was ready to contribute. I remember a tipped pass against Miami and a forced fumble against Indy, which are just two plays off of top of my head. I think you are putting way too much emphasis and importance on draft position.


Mario was the team's best pass rusher last year. While that's not a ringing endorsement, I'd certainly call that contributing. He received more double teams than Weaver or Babin did, that's for sure.

gtexan02
07-25-2007, 09:02 AM
Who said it and when? How is this a fact? Because KC Joyner said so? (*They* said that Julius Peppers took plays off in college, and that didn't work out so bad for the Panthers).

I am guessing if you are getting two pain shots in your foot each game, that might effect you some.

I didn't see what he was saying as excuses, but rather suggesting to everyone that you need to see more stuff before you can write anyone off or send them to the HOF.

Overall, re the piece, I enjoy reading the statastic view of things, but yeah, it isn't a substitute for figuring out why things are the way they are.

I was going off JOyner's article. He said MW was accused of taking plays off, so I believed him. I dont have any other evidence to back that up

DBCooper
07-25-2007, 10:00 AM
Mario makes this defense better. Even a hurt Mario.

With a healthy Mario and a (hopefully) good Amobi, coupled with better LB depth, our defense should be a shining star for this team.

Our CB's are good, we do need a FS that can get after the ball.

With the QB on the ground, it won't matter.

nunusguy
07-25-2007, 10:08 AM
Schaub shouldn’t have a sense of cabin fever because he hasn’t been behind center long enough to develop that malady yet. Schaub also shouldn’t be hamstrung by a fear of risk taking, as he certainly seemed aggressive enough during his playing time in Atlanta. Add it all up and I believe Schaub will be a tremendous upgrade for Houston and will pay dividends in a hurry.
***
I thought the author was right on with much of his take about the individual players, though I think he assumes too much with Schaub. If Schaub gets hit early and 1 time too often, we may have a case of Carr redux. It could happen or Schaub may shed it like water off a ducks back. He really has very little history, so we just don't know. Of course many expect his demeanor up under will be so much better than Carr's so that much of these potential sack problems will not even have an opportunity to materiialize.

Texans_Chick
07-25-2007, 10:16 AM
I was going off JOyner's article. He said MW was accused of taking plays off, so I believed him. I dont have any other evidence to back that up

I've read just about everything that has been written about MW, and I do not recall that he's been accused of taking plays off in the pros.

I've read he has had multiple shots in his foot to let him play. I've read that he looked confused/tenative at times being moved around the line. I've read some stuff that I know is wrong (such as the type of injury he had).

When I read something like that, I just wonder who their source is. My number one rule of critical reading is: the more emotion involved with a player pick, the more likelihood that there is misinformation on that subject. Everything involving VY, RB and MW I read with an extra eye on BS.

DBCooper
07-25-2007, 10:19 AM
Schaub shouldn’t have a sense of cabin fever because he hasn’t been behind center long enough to develop that malady yet. Schaub also shouldn’t be hamstrung by a fear of risk taking, as he certainly seemed aggressive enough during his playing time in Atlanta. Add it all up and I believe Schaub will be a tremendous upgrade for Houston and will pay dividends in a hurry.
***
I thought the author was right on with much of his take about the individual players, though I think he assumes too much with Schaub. If Schaub gets hit early and 1 time too often, we may have a case of Carr redux. It could happen or Schaub may shed it like water off a ducks back. He really has very little history, so we just don't know. Of course many expect his demeanor up under will be so much better than Carr's so that much of these potential sack problems will not even have an opportunity to materiialize.


Hopefully Schaub will do what Carr could not. And that is make the defense pay for being too aggressive. If Schaub can keep his wits and find a way to make the play, the defense will back off. Carr could not find the open receiver. Imagine how good our O-line will look if the defense is reacting to what we are doing, instead of the other way around.

ObsiWan
07-25-2007, 07:14 PM
Interesting article. I found his positional breakdowns really interesting.

but its not how guys play as individuals, its how they jell as a TEAM. And the way we seem to be bonding during OTAs is very positive, IMHO.

So I'll have to disagree with that 6-10 prediction. I think we're good for at least 8-8, maybe 9-7. With a couple of breaks here and there, we could grab a wild card spot.
:shades:

Matt
07-25-2007, 08:28 PM
but its not how guys play as individuals, its how they jell as a TEAM.

That's an important distinction. I mean, if the blocking is fantastic, then Green is not "over the hill" by any stretch, etc.:texflag: