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Texans_Chick
07-01-2007, 01:37 PM
It's a rainy bleh day in Houston, nothing is happening Texanswise, so I decided to throw down an old school link fest:

Texans FanHouse: Debate With Self: Ahman Green (http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/07/01/debate-with-self-ahman-green/)

Basically, I host a debate with my own self about whether Green is going to be good this year or not so much. Tons of interesting links in the post so it gives you some nice reading if you are bored.

I would be interested in what your thoughts are about him for next year.

Texans Horror
07-01-2007, 02:32 PM
I think Green will do fine next year, up until about the half-way mark when he starts getting the injury bug. He then will be out for a few games and be used less capriciously. Until then, though, I think the Texans are going to see great positive results from a strong back like Green, and it is going to be hard for them to give the ball to somebody else when Green is winning games in Houston. So I see it averaging out at 25 carries like Kubes says, but I suspect he will get more carries (35-40?) in the first half of the season and less (10-20) in the latter half of the season when the Texans are going to have to rely more and more on Dayne and the other two backs.

Let me add: I think Green is a great fit in Houston. He is back with Sherman, and he has an attack that will be very useful on the Texans, who do not have the best line. I think Green will benefit for a running by committee system. Too bad the coaches aren't going to do more of it. Reducing the number of carries Green gets will reduce the wear and tear on him; thus keeping him running well into November and December.

The Pencil Neck
07-01-2007, 02:40 PM
Personally, I'm not sure how Green is going to do.

At the very worst, our running game should be at least as good as it was last year. At this point, we have all the same running backs as we did by the mid-point of the season and they all have more experience with what Kubiak/Sherman want to do. The rookies are no longer rookies and should be better at picking up their assignments. Kubiak/Sherman know what to expect from each of the guys (and have realized that Leach is a gamer and needs to be on the field).

Then you add Green to the mix. IF he's not too old and IF he's not a delicate flower, we should see immediate improvement. His age worries me but guys are staying in better shape and RB's are being more productive longer. So he might still have a couple of good years left in him.

So, at the very least, I expect our running game to be improved.

V Man
07-01-2007, 02:43 PM
I am hoping for about 1100+ yards on the ground. But as we all know, if he stays healthy, it is very possible.

Also if he can get that many yards, it should really help Schaub and the rest of the offense (but we all know already).

Lucky
07-01-2007, 04:14 PM
From Texans_Chick's link above:

Kubiak has said that Green should be getting 25 or so carries a game (http://sportsline.com/nfl/story/10223207), so there won't be quite the running back by committee that there was last year. But if you read his quote in its entirety, Kubiak implies the opposite:

Kubiak hopes to keep Green this healthy throughout the season and believes the rest of Houston's running backs, which includes Dayne, will help with that.


"I think the key is that we have enough guys out here to where we don't have to beat him up," Kubiak said. "I think that's going to be key, to be fresh for that 25 or so carries he gets on Sunday, because he ought to be fresh because we have plenty of guys to help him out."
Actually, Green has never averaged 25 carries a game in any season of his career. And he hasn't averaged over 20 carries since '03. Really, there's no reason for Ahman to do so, now. If the Texans can get around 18 carries/game from Green, the rest of the backs (Dayne, Lundy, Taylor, Walker) can handle the rest (around 10 carries/game). As well as give Ahman some rest.

When Sherman was in Green Bay, he would have the reserve backs handle the rushing duties between the 40-yard lines. Leaving Green available for more of the critical downs involving field position. I think Ahman should be on the field for the Texans for 3rd down plays and in the red zone, where his presence is most vital. On other plays, Dayne & Co. should share the load.

Second Honeymoon
07-01-2007, 04:25 PM
I predict he will put up some good numbers and improve our running game but he may put the ball on the ground at some inopportune times. It's pretty much been the only real knock on the guy. A lot of those games were in some bad weather conditions so maybe he wont have those problems here playing half his games in Reliant rather than The Frozen Tundra and another 3 games in an AFC South stadium. You never know. One thing I do know is that he is the most talented RB we have had in our team's brief existence. Here is to hoping he can stay healthy and not cough the ball up. if so, we should see some real dividends in 07 and even a little beyond.

Nawzer
07-01-2007, 04:53 PM
Can't underestimate the fact that Ahman Green is going to play a huge role on how well or how bad our team performs. If Green plays well we will more than likely win games and if he doesn't we will loose. We saw last season how well the team played when we actually had a running game going. It makes things easier for the qb and the it gets the team in a rythm. Needless to say it keeps our defense fresh and the opposing defense on the field. Bottom line is this: Ahman Green's performance is absolutely critical for our ability to have sucess. The running game in general with Green, Ron Dayne, and etc. Hopefully he'll stay healthy because I think he still has some good years left in him.

aj.
07-01-2007, 05:06 PM
I'm sure Kubiak meant 25 touches.

Few RBs, Earl Campbell included, ever averaged 25 carries per game over a full season (Earl's highest season average was 24.8 btw). Yeah, there are a few examples, but it's not common. Larry Johnson did it last year. Shaun Alexander did it during the 10 games he was healthy last year. But it's not very common, even for a top RB in his prime.

For those who are heading to the stats pages as we speak, let me save you some time:
25 carries per game =

400 carries over 16 games;
375 carries over 15 games;
350 carries over 14 games;
325 carries over 13 games;
300 carries over 12 games.

If Ahman Green is averaging 25 or more carries after the first few games in '07, he will be lucky to make it to mid-season.

real
07-01-2007, 05:16 PM
I think Ahman should be on the field for the Texans for 3rd down plays and in the red zone, where his presence is most vital. On other plays, Dayne & Co. should share the load.

I actually agree with this. I don't know if it is to that extreme of him only being on the field in the red zone and on third downs, but I do agree over all. I keep hearing that we need a third down back, but I always thought Green would be the best third down back on the team...He can block and he can catch passes out of the backfield...

I don't want Green in on 1st and second down and then have someone else come in for third...I'd rather him be fresh for third down situations...

The Pencil Neck
07-01-2007, 05:19 PM
I don't want Green in on 1st and second down and then have someone else come in for third...I'd rather him be fresh for third down situations...

Third down situations? WTH? Stop being so negative. Our drives next year are going to go... 1st down, 1st down, 1st down, TD. If we only use him on 3rd down situations, he'll never see the field!

:fans:

Lucky
07-01-2007, 05:30 PM
I actually agree with this. I don't know if it is to that extreme of him only being on the field in the red zone and on third downs, but I do agree over all.
That's not what I was trying to say. Use Green in the red zone and 3rd down, and split carries with the reserves in other down & distance situations.

real
07-01-2007, 05:33 PM
That's not what I was trying to say. Use Green in the red zone and 3rd down, and split carries with the reserves in other down & distance situations.

Well in that case I totally agree.

real
07-01-2007, 05:35 PM
Third down situations? WTH? Stop being so negative. Our drives next year are going to go... 1st down, 1st down, 1st down, TD. If we only use him on 3rd down situations, he'll never see the field!

:fans:

Whut ar ya talkin' bout ? Jerome Mathis is going to make one miraculous return after another and we won't even need an offense!

:texflag:

DBCooper
07-01-2007, 08:23 PM
Whut ar ya talkin' bout ? Jerome Mathis is going to make one miraculous return after another and we won't even need an offense!

:texflag:

Sure we will King, for when DeMeco and Mario get turnovers and give us the short field!

Texans_Chick
07-01-2007, 08:55 PM
I expect that the Texans use him as a feature back spelled when he needs a breather. Like how GB used him. If you look around, there are some links that suggest that the heat/humidity bothers his asthma. But there are also links that have shown he's had problems with his asthma in very cold weather. GB liked to make sure he had enough left in the tank for the 4th quarter.

Going back to the original point, do you think Green has stuff left in the tank?

The Pencil Neck
07-01-2007, 09:08 PM
Going back to the original point, do you think Green has stuff left in the tank?

I do but I'm trying not to let myself get too excited about it.

Runner
07-01-2007, 09:38 PM
Going back to the original point, do you think Green has stuff left in the tank?

Yes. But I also I think the Texans will be very sensitive to injuries in a couple of key areas where they have older veterans - RB and Green being a major one.

It would be, shall we say, "disappointing" if a promising season turns on injury. The Texans will be well served if this the year the injury bug turns in their favor.

Texans_Chick
07-01-2007, 10:14 PM
Yes. But I also I think the Texans will be very sensitive to injuries in a couple of key areas where they have older veterans - RB and Green being a major one.

It would be, shall we say, "disappointing" if a promising season turns on injury. The Texans will be well served if this the year the injury bug turns in their favor.

There's some GB observers who believe that Green's quad injury was slowing him down before it completely tore. He had been complaining of quad pain for a while before it tore in 2005. It is possible that the repair fixes what ails that leg. I read a lot of articles say that that injury shouldn't repeat once fixed, but that he needs to be aware of compensation issues while that leg gets stronger. If you look at his 2006 season, he tended to get stronger as the season progressed.

It was kinda sad to see all the people say how good Green looked before 2006 (Favre said it, the coach said it, etc) and then how he tweaked his hamstring early in the season. I'm saying that because all the articles now mention how good Green looks.

It will be interesting to see if ego and paycheck has anything to do with who we end up seeing on the field next year. It is easy not to play highly compensated guys if they are not playing up to standards if they are not your guys. It is harder when they are your hand-picked guys. Coaches are human.

Kubiak preaches that the best players see the field no matter how they are acquired. I will be interested to see how that ends up working. Maybe it is easier for him this year now that he knows the players better.

Koolaid Time
07-01-2007, 10:38 PM
Personally, I'm not sure how Green is going to do.

At the very worst, our running game should be at least as good as it was last year. At this point, we have all the same running backs as we did by the mid-point of the season and they all have more experience with what Kubiak/Sherman want to do. The rookies are no longer rookies and should be better at picking up their assignments. Kubiak/Sherman know what to expect from each of the guys (and have realized that Leach is a gamer and needs to be on the field).

Then you add Green to the mix. IF he's not too old and IF he's not a delicate flower, we should see immediate improvement. His age worries me but guys are staying in better shape and RB's are being more productive longer. So he might still have a couple of good years left in him.

So, at the very least, I expect our running game to be improved.

Green will keep the Linebackers honest. They will have to back off more than they did in the past playing Houston. A credible running game will get alot of heat off of Matt.

Koolaid Time
07-01-2007, 10:47 PM
Green's medical conditions might not be a factor playing in Houston. We only have 1 cold game..Cleveland-- November 25.

Texans_Chick
07-01-2007, 10:50 PM
Green's medical conditions might not be a factor playing in Houston. We only have 1 cold game..Cleveland-- November 25.

There's some articles that suggest that hot and humid weather bother his asthma more--like when GB was going to Miami.

The only quote I could find from him talking about it was saying "Weather doesn't bother me."

He was traded away from Seatle to Green Bay partially due to concerns about his asthma. I have to say with my asthma, cold air hurt my lungs more--but Green did play college ball in Nebraska, and a 4 time pro bowler in GB, so it couldn't have slowed him down much.

ReliantTexan
07-01-2007, 11:42 PM
There's some articles that suggest that hot and humid weather bother his asthma more--like when GB was going to Miami.

The only quote I could find from him talking about it was saying "Weather doesn't bother me."

He was traded away from Seatle to Green Bay partially due to concerns about his asthma. I have to say with my asthma, cold air hurt my lungs more--but Green did play college ball in Nebraska, and a 4 time pro bowler in GB, so it couldn't have slowed him down much.I heard that Ahman's has a sweating problem and fumbled alot because of this,which made me wonder,if he sweats that much in Green Bay what will it be like here. I don't know if there's any truth to this.Someone posted something about it on a packers MB right after we signed him.