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bayshorebevo
04-16-2007, 05:31 PM
Plenty of teams have stunk for years and then made the playoffs the next year. I for one am sick and tired of every year being called a rebuilding year. I don't know anything about Schaub, but if he has a good attitude and a live arm, maybe he'll get this team to think they can win. I have heard all the excuses why we can't win, no o-line, etc. How did the other teams do it? By winning of course. We are the same team that beat the Super Bowl champs last year and we also won a game with negative passing yards. The hurry up and wait to win is really getting old.

BigWig
04-17-2007, 07:29 AM
Heres an easy answer to your thread title, strength of schedule. Take a look at our opponents this year ( mind you it looks easier than last year) and factor in who is in our division, and that the AFC is tough all around and you come up with the answer to your thread.:pirate:

Texan_Bill
04-17-2007, 07:36 AM
I would be more optimistic and more in agreement with you if we were in the Nancy Football Conference (NFC).. The AFC is a lot tougher!!

Texans_Chick
04-17-2007, 07:53 AM
DeMeco and Dunta believe it could be a playoff year.

David Carr even told the Charlotte paper that it could be a playoff year for the Texan.

Jerome Solomon went totally optimistic and said 9 wins.

Kubiak's assessment is probably more accurate:

link (http://nfl.aolsportsblog.com/2007/04/15/gary-kubiak-on-texans-playoffs-playoffs/)

With the team they currently have, and the sort of depth the Texans have going, they would need an abundance of luck, key guys to stay healthy, an identity on offense and defense and a lot of the no-name guys to play outstanding.

infantrycak
04-17-2007, 07:59 AM
Every year folks expect too much stability in the NFL, anticipating most teams will stay at or within a couple of games of what they did last year. Fact is, only 12 teams last year had results for 2006 within 2 games of their 2005 records and 5 of those were playoff teams fine tuning upper level records. 20 teams changed their records by 3 or more games and 13 teams records changed by 4 or more games (8 of those were positive changes). That's over a third of the league having drastic change and a quarter of it having drastic positive change. Not predicting the Texans to make the playoffs but a three game improvement is not a wild swing in the NFL and in looking at the schedule, a bunch of those teams aren't going to be who we thought they were either.

Texan_Bill
04-17-2007, 08:03 AM
Thanks for the link TC..

I found Kubiak's comments to be somewhat JVG(ish) and the players' (DeMeco and Dunta) to be exactly what we should expect from our players. I do like the way that Kubiak is already protecting Schaub from the scrutiny that would come if he remotely struggles: "Our supporting cast isn't good enough right now, and we're not going to put everything on [quarterback] Matt [Schaub]."

HoustonFrog
04-17-2007, 08:59 AM
I definitely think there will be a marked improvement but, despite the percentages, I didn't like the look of September and October on the schedule. I can see an 8-8 season with a chance for 9-7 but that probably wouldn't get it done for the AFC. I'm looking for this to be the year people start noticing us and next year to be the one where we have real playoff expectations.

Vinny
04-17-2007, 09:14 AM
Every year folks expect too much stability in the NFL, anticipating most teams will stay at or within a couple of games of what they did last year. Fact is, only 12 teams last year had results for 2006 within 2 games of their 2005 records and 5 of those were playoff teams fine tuning upper level records. 20 teams changed their records by 3 or more games and 13 teams records changed by 4 or more games (8 of those were positive changes). That's over a third of the league having drastic change and a quarter of it having drastic positive change. Not predicting the Texans to make the playoffs but a three game improvement is not a wild swing in the NFL and in looking at the schedule, a bunch of those teams aren't going to be who we thought they were either.excellent post and spot on.

Dallas_Texan
04-17-2007, 09:25 AM
Plenty of teams have stunk for years and then made the playoffs the next year. I for one am sick and tired of every year being called a rebuilding year. I don't know anything about Schaub, but if he has a good attitude and a live arm, maybe he'll get this team to think they can win. I have heard all the excuses why we can't win, no o-line, etc. How did the other teams do it? By winning of course. We are the same team that beat the Super Bowl champs last year and we also won a game with negative passing yards. The hurry up and wait to win is really getting old.

I hate to say it, but this year is, and so is next year! Kubes said that 2009 is his playoff run. So that will finally be the put up or shut up year.

Hervoyel
04-17-2007, 09:27 AM
I see ten wins on that schedule and I'm sticking to it. If Matt Schaub is just a non-shell-shocked and competent QB then it's entirely possible. With both Green and Dayne on this team we will have a running game from day one instead of needing to find one. Also I think we'll see a much improved defense this year. Barring injuries (which can sink the best teams if they have enough of them) I think we compete for a playoff spot. Whether or not we can actually get into the playoffs is in my opinion not that big a deal in 2007. I think it would be a major step up just to be in the hunt for a playoff spot late in the year.

After the 5 years we've just been through I'm grateful for anything that keeps me from being more interested in draft position than wins and losses over the last quarter of the season. I'm sick of people (including myself) having nothing more to talk about in November and December than the draft.

Vinny
04-17-2007, 09:30 AM
I hate to say it, but this year is, and so is next year! Kubes said that 2009 is his playoff run. So that will finally be the put up or shut up year.Kubiak will be fired by then....I think you are misunderstanding something...something is getting lost in the translation.

I think we have a great shot at 9 wins this year. I think we were a .500 team last year with good quarterbacking. Hell, David Carr only threw one non garbage time TD in the last TEN GAMES of the season. He only outproduced me by only one TD.

Texans_Chick
04-17-2007, 09:41 AM
I see ten wins on that schedule and I'm sticking to it. If Matt Schaub is just a non-shell-shocked and competent QB then it's entirely possible. With both Green and Dayne on this team we will have a running game from day one instead of needing to find one. Also I think we'll see a much improved defense this year. Barring injuries (which can sink the best teams if they have enough of them) I think we compete for a playoff spot. Whether or not we can actually get into the playoffs is in my opinion not that big a deal in 2007. I think it would be a major step up just to be in the hunt for a playoff spot late in the year.

After the 5 years we've just been through I'm grateful for anything that keeps me from being more interested in draft position than wins and losses over the last quarter of the season. I'm sick of people (including myself) having nothing more to talk about in November and December than the draft.


We don't know what kind of QB that Schaub will be.

We don't know what our offensive line can do with a change at QB.

We don't know how much is left in the tank with Green and Dayne. Dayne for pete's sake injured himself warming up for the last game of the season.

We don't know if there is any wide receiver combo that can make defenses pay for stacking up on Andre Johnson.

We don't know if the coaching staff can overcome their all over the place game calling, and what Sherman in the booth means.

We don't know what will come of the Bush/Smith defense and whether they can become more consistent. (in a good way).

We don't know if the special teams will get it back on track. Kubiak likes ST guys to play in other parts of the team--Marciano likes a few designated guys that know their stuff. The special teams was more of an adventure last year than in some previous years. It is not looking like there will be a change at the kicker/punter position at least now.

We don't know what a Rick Smith draft will look like.

That being said, sometimes having a lot of questions is better than going into the season knowing what to expect and not liking it one bit.

There is absolutely no Texans season record that could surprise me next year--either really bad or really good. I have no freaking idea, but I can't wait for the season to start.

:texflag:

vtech9
04-17-2007, 01:03 PM
Kubiak will be fired by then....I think you are misunderstanding something...something is getting lost in the translation.

I think we have a great shot at 9 wins this year. I think we were a .500 team last year with good quarterbacking. Hell, David Carr only threw one non garbage time TD in the last TEN GAMES of the season. He only outproduced me by only one TD.

that's exactly how I see it. If Matt can just be a good game manager and not make too many mistakes, I think we will have a great shot at the playoffs this year.

mootini
04-17-2007, 01:15 PM
Hey, Anything can happen in the NFL. If the Texans get hot, Yes, it can happen next season. More likely, with a new QB in a new system and a building OL and Defensive 2ndary...the Texans goals are going to be close to 500. It's the next step for your team. AFC is a crazy division to play in, especially the AFC South.

OrangeLotPole8
04-17-2007, 02:14 PM
I figure we will be 5-11 to 7-9, not in the playoff hunt this year, but in 2008 I think we can make a run.

Either way, nothing can mess up tailgating at Reliant Stadium! Its like a day of vacation 10 times a year.

ATXtexanfan
04-17-2007, 03:48 PM
i'd be happy with another 6-10 finish. brutal schedule and we still have holes on offense and defense.

281
04-17-2007, 04:00 PM
Kubiak will be fired by then....

ouch.

red_dirt
04-17-2007, 04:02 PM
tough division + tough schedule + new qb + bad o-line = no playoffs for 2007, maybe longer.

hollywood_texan
04-17-2007, 04:20 PM
The Schuab deal signals clearly that the Texans are expecting to push for a playoff spot. Probably won't make it due to the division and conference, but they at least plan to be in the hunt to the last weekend.

The Texans could 6-10 to 8-8 without Schuab or despite Carr in 2007.

Kubiak/Smith are expecting big things next year or they wouldn't have given up so much for Schuab.

TexanExile
04-17-2007, 04:32 PM
Yep, there's no telling....BUT, cak's awesome 2006 history lesson included the following statement: "13 teams records changed by 4 or more games (8 of those were positive changes)"

That is downright startling. That's saying that a quarter of the league improved their records by winning at least 4 more games than they did the previous year. Could that happen here? Maybe not a 4-game improvement, but I could see 2-3 over last year. We all know what frequently happens to Super Bowl winners, and while I'm not prepared to predict a sweep against the Colts, I do think the playing field will be more level this year in those 2 games. I also think the Titans games will go QUITE differently with a Texans offense led by a QB who helps rather than hinders.

I think 8 or 9 wins is very possible and would be an outstanding sign of progress for this young team. (It'd also be fun to be above .500 for once.) The way the AFC is, though, playoff seeds are rough, and there will be a lot of competition for the wild card slots. A winning season, even w/o playoffs, would be cool with me....especially if a couple of division rivals' playoff hopes get crushed along the way.

:cowboy1:

hollywood_texan
04-17-2007, 04:36 PM
(It'd also be fun to be above .500 for once.)

The Texans have been above .500 on 3 occassions.

They won the openers to season's 2002 and 2003.

In 2004, they were 4-3 after Week 8.

Just thought you should know.

Double Barrel
04-17-2007, 04:40 PM
There were three games we coulda/woulda/shoulda won last year, so we weren't that far off, even with a barely mediocre team.

And at least we can be considered an 'any given Sunday' team at this point when you consider that we handed the Super Bowl champs their last defeat of the 2006 season.

Talking playoffs, though....I'd rather get our first winning season out of the way before expecting (or even hoping) for more than that right now.

OrangeLotPole8
04-17-2007, 04:58 PM
Love the optimism of the fans but there sure are alot that are thinking with their heart and not with their head. I wonder if these 8,9,10 win team pedictors would say the same things if they had money on it.

brakos82
04-17-2007, 05:50 PM
I can definitely see us going 8-8, but every game after that is going to get exponentially harder to win.

TexanExile
04-17-2007, 09:13 PM
The Texans have been above .500 on 3 occassions.

They won the openers to season's 2002 and 2003.

In 2004, they were 4-3 after Week 8.

Just thought you should know.

It's funny you mention that. I thought about that as I typed that original post, even though I meant .500 for the season...but I didn't clarify it. Just to be clear: Being above .500 for a week or two means nothing to me. I was strictly referring to season records.

And to Pole8: I appreciate the grounded thinking there, but I think a lot of this discussion is based on numbers from '06 and changes in the division that prove a good season is very possible. It's not just blind fan-wishing.

(Well, not entirely, anyway.) :fortune:

gtexan02
04-17-2007, 09:18 PM
If you'll notice 1 thing in common with the latest two or 3 rags-to-riches stories in the NFL (The SD Chargers of 04 and the Saints of 06 and maybe the Titans of 06) both had 1 major thing in common:
Change in QB play

So hopefully that will be a good omen for us@

TxDavid
04-17-2007, 09:45 PM
I'm with you on the playoffs. Why Not? Any Given Sunday, baby!:trophy:

Battle Red Flash
04-18-2007, 03:39 PM
Sure, it could happen this year.

I see a 9-7 season this year, but it could be better. Who knows if other teams will get key injuries?
Green should be the best back we'ver ever had, and Dayne averaged what? 3.9 per carry last year? Green could go for 4.2.
Either Schaub or Sage should be better than Carr.
The O-line was coming together last year, and we added Black.

Teams have gone from worse than 6 wins to the playoffs the next year, it could happen to us. The AFC is darn tough, though.

Bradster592
04-18-2007, 08:16 PM
I can see 9 wins on the schedule this season. As Cak's post eloquently demonstrates, last season's performances may have no influence on this season at all. Given all the roster changes, we can view this season as a fresh start, imo. I see the acquisition of Matt Schaub at QB as stage 1 in what may be a lengthy re-building process.:twocents:

We need to do more to help the QB this year:

Draft a RB to give a '1-2 punch' that can help take the pressure off Matt as he finds his feet. We have to be looking at drafting Peterson - I think the combo of him and Green would force opposition D-lines to respect our running threat. As we all know, a solid running game shakes other options loose.

We have got to get to grips with our frankly dire O-Line. The management has got to light a fire under these guys, whichever group wins the starting spots. Their performance last season was not to the standard a NFL team has the right to expect. All the best laid plans in the world will come to nothing if Schaub spends his days 'doing a DC' and running for his freakin' life.

We need to look at the O-line dramas and adjust accordingly - I'd like to think that MS and the coaches are looking at quick drops, bootlegs, play-action and use of the RB's and TE's as receivers - we have to find a way to either make doubling Andre all day risky, or to be able to use the double-coverage to create space underneath on short routes.

Let's unleash some aggressive D. Let the LB's go hunting. Give opposing QB's something to be concerned about. Ryans and Williams need to step up and do the business, improve on brilliant seasons last year and be aiming to be pro-bowl quality from day one.

Lastly, the coaches have got to inspire some genuine belief and pride in the team. Results aside, for me last season's biggest concern was that there were few games, imo, where the Texans 'left it all on the field'. In a competition between two teams, the team that loses most often is the one that didn't represent itself properly and give it's all.

As ever, I'll be screaming for 'da boys' and turning up here when work permits. I'll not be in Iraq this season, which will be nice, too! Maybe one day I'll get to see a game at Reliant....*sigh*

Go Texans!!

:fans: :ok: :toast2: :gotexans1

Hervoyel
04-18-2007, 09:05 PM
We don't know what kind of QB that Schaub will be.

No we don't. All we can do is hope that the Texans are on the right track in pursuing him. We must base our hopes on a leap of faith. Most every fan takes a few of those along the way every year.

We don't know what our offensive line can do with a change at QB.

No we don't. If we believe that the Texans did the right thing in replacing David Carr with Matt Schaub then logically this particular leap of faith isn't hard to make.

We don't know how much is left in the tank with Green and Dayne. Dayne for pete's sake injured himself warming up for the last game of the season.

Green I'm concerned about but Dayne is low mileage and was a beast over the last quarter of the season in 2006. Freakish injuries happen so I can't look at his getting hurt warming up and panic. I've seen that before and it wasn't indicative of a player who was done. Maybe he needs better conditioning prior to the season. Last year he didn't get much of that and it's not easy to play yourself into football shape after sitting out with an injury. Add in Taylor and I think we're going to be just fine in the running game.

We don't know if there is any wide receiver combo that can make defenses pay for stacking up on Andre Johnson.

No we don't. We don't even know what it looks like when the QB consistently is capable of seeing someone other than AJ. If we have already made the first two leaps of faith then it's not hard to imagine that we'll get better production out of our other receivers and the TE if Matt Schaub is the QB we hope he's going to be.

We don't know if the coaching staff can overcome their all over the place game calling, and what Sherman in the booth means.

We hope they have learned from their first year together. We hope that they've found some things that work and can build on them. We were a .500 team over the last half of the season in 2006 despite that being (statistically at least) Carr's weakest time.

We don't know what will come of the Bush/Smith defense and whether they can become more consistent. (in a good way).

Same as above. We hope they've learned from last year and can step it up. Lots of those leaps of faith in there.

We don't know if the special teams will get it back on track. Kubiak likes ST guys to play in other parts of the team--Marciano likes a few designated guys that know their stuff. The special teams was more of an adventure last year than in some previous years. It is not looking like there will be a change at the kicker/punter position at least now.

It was more of an adventure but it wasn't a complete train wreck. I think it will at worst stay about the same and we can survive that.

We don't know what a Rick Smith draft will look like.

No but we know what he looks like finding talented street free agents to fill holes and that's a promising thing. In 2003 Casserly found fat tubs of lard who couldn't stay in more than a couple of plays in a row to fill in for our hurting defensive line. In 2006 Smith found guys who could make plays. I'm looking forward to what he finds in the draft. I feel good about having him at the helm for this.

That being said, sometimes having a lot of questions is better than going into the season knowing what to expect and not liking it one bit.

There is absolutely no Texans season record that could surprise me next year--either really bad or really good. I have no freaking idea, but I can't wait for the season to start.

:texflag:

Oh yeah. Better the devil you know sometimes than the devil you don't. Like I've said we were easily an 8-8 team last year with just stable/steady play at the QB position and that's with everything that went wrong. We definitely left two games on the table (and possibly even three).

I'm optimistic.

Texans Horror
04-19-2007, 09:46 PM
They're not a polished team and they aren't close to it. The difference between the 2004 Chargers, the 2006 Saints, and the 2007 Texans is that the Texans aren't needing that one person to change everything. They still have a lot of team needs. I agree with Kubiak. It will take health and unknowns stepping up to the plate for the Texans to make a play-off run.

In fact, I think the Texans will do worse this year. They took a step back. But 2008 will be a leap forward...

bayshorebevo
04-19-2007, 10:13 PM
If you were one of the players, what would you say? Feel free to respond, players as well as fans.

STEEL BLUE TEXANS
04-19-2007, 10:40 PM
With another good draft and Schaub playing significantly better than Carr did last season, I can see us at around 9 or 10 wins.

2BCF
04-19-2007, 10:52 PM
With Schuab, we will be a winning team this year.

nunusguy
04-20-2007, 12:11 PM
Its all about Schaub. Nothing else is even close. Of course for openers, they are going to have to protect him and supply him with another decent receiver (a player who may already be on the roster ?).
But Schaub could struggle initially, then find his way after a few games.
Or it could be smooth sailing from the season opener thru the end of December. Or Schaub could turn out to be a total bust.
But if he plays well, isn't dumb, and we don't have any real critical injuries, we definitely have a shot. Just like if all of those parameters go south we easily could win fewer games than last year.

LORK 88
04-20-2007, 12:56 PM
The higher our hopes get, the better chance that we will be dissapointed. It has nothing to do with being optimistic or pessimistic, its just how it usually goes. It's very possible that we could make the playoffs (look what the Saints did with an actual coach) but at the same time, its just as possible that we do alot worse than that. I want to keep expectations level and not get my hopes too high until I have something to base it on.

As for what will change this season, 2 things will affect it: Schaub like everyone said and our pass defense. If both play well, we shoudl be in good shape.

dickieb
04-20-2007, 06:43 PM
Surely we will get better...?

Texans Horror
04-20-2007, 08:10 PM
Unless the Texans come out of the draft with a fix for the LT/C, WR, DT, and a CB/S, then they won't be able to make it. Too many holes. Even if by a miracle they fill those holes, there is the year that Schaub needs to get ready. He's going to make some bonehead decisions, without a doubt. It'll cost the Texans, and with the rest of the team's problems, it'll cost the season.

Hervoyel
04-20-2007, 09:31 PM
Odd as it sounds Texans Horror I absolutely expect Matt Schaub to not make bonehead decisions this year. I think that should be the one thing we can all reasonably expect him to not do. I can accept play that's clearly rooted in being new in the system. I think that should be expected of any newly aquired player.

What I can't accept are bad or stupid decisions. If those start showing up then we've given up draft position and picks to accomplish nothing. Schaub is not a rookie and I don't expect him to play like one. He has played at this level and he's played well in limited action. We should all remember that and not allow the circumstances to lower our expectations.

Yes, he's a new starter. No, it's not the first time he's started in the NFL. This will be his fourth season in the league and I expect him to play like it.

Yes this is a new system for him. One major advantage he's got that David Carr didn't last year is that everyone around him has a year in this system. That's going to make a real difference I believe. This will be only the second time in our teams existence that the offense came back to the same system they used the previous year without some aspect of the system changing.

"Tired of incremental change"? I'm betting that you won't have to settle for it this year. This year we won't be looking at baby steps and be told that we need to keep our patience. This year we'll see some real progress.

Texanmike02
04-20-2007, 10:27 PM
The Texans won't make the playoffs this year because they are not a good team. You can't tell me that you think they are one of the top 6 teams in the AFC. If we were in the NFC we would probably stand an outside shot at the playoffs. Of course this depends alot on the draft and the free agents signed in the draft.

If you look at this team right now, while I love Schaub, I don't think he's a superstar yet. We have obvious holes at SS/CB2/FS/WLB/OL/K/P. I don't think we have enough to overcome those for a 10 win season. Sure we got better but so have some of the teams around us. If you want to know if we're going to be in the playoffs, sit down and rank the teams in our conference... if we're not in the top half.. then we won't even be challenging for a playoff spot

Mike

ArlingtonTexan
04-21-2007, 12:07 AM
One thing people forget is that every year a couple of flawed teams make the playoffs. The Texans don't have to (actually can't) fix every problem they have, but they do need to do a couple of things at least average. The Jets last year were not significantly more talented than the Texans but they beat all the teams that they were either even to or better than a stole a couple of games. Boom playoffs. Can you make a Superbowl run no, but only the most disfunctional franchises don't make the playoffs in five years ...ooops did I say that.

Texans Horror
04-21-2007, 11:46 AM
Yes, he's a new starter. No, it's not the first time he's started in the NFL. This will be his fourth season in the league and I expect him to play like it.


"Tired of incremental change"? I'm betting that you won't have to settle for it this year. This year we won't be looking at baby steps and be told that we need to keep our patience. This year we'll see some real progress.

Kubiak has already started the spin drive in the SI article, saying that Schaub is only one piece of the puzzle and saying that he's not expecting a play-off run this year. So for me, it sounds like SSDD. I can see what he's saying. Matt's experience has been very limited. You're right, he should make better decisions, but I think he's inexperienced and it will show. Between Kubiak and Schaub, I'm sticking to my sign-off.

One thing people forget is that every year a couple of flawed teams make the playoffs. The Texans don't have to (actually can't) fix every problem they have, but they do need to do a couple of things at least average. The Jets last year were not significantly more talented than the Texans but they beat all the teams that they were either even to or better than a stole a couple of games. Boom playoffs. Can you make a Superbowl run no, but only the most disfunctional franchises don't make the playoffs in five years ...ooops did I say that.


I agree. Disfunction has been the standard. I see quite a few talents that were squandered while they were on the Texans.

That being said, I think there is a difference between a flawed team and one with major holes. The Titans were a flawed team last year that VY/Fisher saved. Good coaching has saved flawed teams in NE and NO. But major holes? The Texans are a whole (no pun intended) other story. Defensive secondary, a complimentary wide receiver, the o-line, the d-line -- it's all too much.

I like the Texans. I want them to succeed. I would be thrilled if they made a play-off run. My logic dictates otherwise.

Hervoyel
04-21-2007, 04:52 PM
If one stops and thinks about who the top 6 teams in the AFC are the list is pretty much predicated on what these teams did last year and whether that's expected to continue this year. Is Pittsburgh one of the top 6 teams in the NFL this year? They stunk last year but the year before that they won the Super Bowl.

Somebody in the list of teams you (or anyone really) consider to be the best 6 in the AFC will stumble. Somebody does every year and in some seasons it happens to more than one team.

It's possible to be a playoff team and not belong. It happens. I don't even care if the Texans make the playoffs next year to be perfectly honest. I'll be satisfied if they are still in it past the midway point of the year. I'd be thrilled with that. If they could be an outside chance with 4 games left I'd go nuts. It's been a long, long time since I was cheering for a Houston team that won more games than it lost. I'd be very satisfied with that.

nedthehead
04-22-2007, 10:02 AM
( How did the other teams do it? )


You mean like the Saints? don't ask if you really don't want to know. Some people here will get riled up.