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View Full Version : Top 8 picks are solid - drops off after that - and trade value chart options


Xman
02-08-2007, 12:34 PM
First, let me say that I think we need to deal for more picks, but I like our options:

Top 8:
Will be gone (or we take them anyway): WR Calvin Johnson, OT Joe Thomas
(If the WR somehow fell to us, we could clean up on a trade down)

The Other 6:
QB - Brady Quinn - - JaMarcus Russell
Both should be gone, but seriously, if one of them is there then he is Carr's replacement.

DT - Alan Branch JR DT Michigan - Versatile and could play either tackle or end depending on the scheme. (ths guy has gotten some great reviews)
DE - Jamaal Anderson JR Arkansas
DE - Gaines Adams SR Clemson - Sack artist who could rise if he picks up where he left off as a junior.

RB - Adrian Peterson JR RB Oklahoma
[I want him to fall to us - can we be that lucky?]
Terrific physical specimen and a rare player but durability is a concern.

And a couple that could move up during the draft process:
Amobi Okoye SR DT Louisville - Very talented and unique prospect who will be a 20-year-old rookie.
LaRon Landry SR S L.S.U. - Ballhawk who has been extremely productive throughout his career.
OT Levi Brown - I don't think he fits our system and he is probably a RT - so I doubt he is our guy, but things could always change.

At this time, these guys appear to be the top 8 (per most reviews and websites). So, we either get crazy lucky and get our OT, really lucky and get a stud QB, WR or RB, or we just fill our needs along the DL (our DL is going to eat up our cap - but the team seems determined to make it dominant and any of those 3 listed could get it much closer to that level).

So, we will get a stud player at a decent salary. Sounds good.

But, if we did deal, here are some intriguing trade options based on the draft pick value chart:
NE gives picks 24 and 28 for pick 8.
NYJ gives 25, 37 and 89 for pick 8.
GB or Jax could give their first and third (16/17 and 46/47)for pick 8.
Buff or St.L could give their first and third (12/13 and 76/77)for pick 8.
Hou could give first 3 picks (8, 39, 73) for pick 3 (Cleve or TB).
Hou could give first 2 picks (8, 39) for pick 4 (Cleve or TB).
Hou could give 39 to Denver for 56 and 88.
Hou could give 8 to Denver for 21, 56, and 70.

Lucky
02-08-2007, 01:02 PM
GB or Jax could give their first and third (16/17 and 46/47)for pick 8.
That would be a 1st & 2nd round selections.

YoungTexanFan
02-08-2007, 02:23 PM
That would be a 1st & 2nd round selections.

Sold. There are about 4 guys I think we should draft in the second round.

1. Merriwether
2. Houston
3. Kalil
4. BPA OLB (Beason, Rufus, Everett, Timmons, etc)

Obviously, I want more second rounders.

I would also try to move guys for second/third rounders this year. I would try a 2nd for Carr, but could live with a 3rd.

Ole Miss Texan
02-08-2007, 02:35 PM
I wish there was a way to trade our 1st for three 2nd rders. I agree with you YTF..I like a lot of guys that will be there.

Navy_Chris
02-08-2007, 02:39 PM
Sold. There are about 4 guys I think we should draft in the second round.

1. Merriwether
2. Houston
3. Kalil
4. BPA OLB (Beason, Rufus, Everett, Timmons, etc)

Obviously, I want more second rounders.

I would also try to move guys for second/third rounders this year. I would try a 2nd for Carr, but could live with a 3rd.

I like Merriweather. But you're forgetting about Daymeion Hughes, Ryan Smith and David Irons. Absolute playmakers at the CB position. I believe Drew Hodgdon can step up and be a solid backup to McKinney at center. He has the potential and work ethic to eventually take over there. I would take either of the 3 corners I just mentioned over Cedric Houston...you're kidding, right?

Xman
02-08-2007, 03:05 PM
multiple 2nd rounders (and even 3rds) would be nice - but the only teams with extra 2nds are Jets 37 and TB 64. Denver has an extra 3rd - that is why the Denver options look more possible than most.
(this might change a little later - if trades escalate but probably about it).

So, to get multiple 2nd rounders, we would have to do multiple trades - which I would like - but the front office has not shown the ability to do this.


NO and SF have 2 extra 4th rounders (but only SF has a high one from Wash).

Also - Washington traded their 2nd, 3rd and 4th - so they pick at #6 then their next pick is 133. So, they will probably be looking to deal down (unless they are happy only adding one good player through the draft).

I would love to see hire Jimmy Johnson as a "draft consultant" - similar to the Reeves thing - JJ could move around and get full value for picks.

Silver Oak
02-08-2007, 03:12 PM
NE gives picks 24 and 28 for pick 8.


Good post and I like the way we're all thinking about extra picks.

This NE one intrigues me as they could really use a top WR and with our eighth pick, Jarrett, Ginn, or Bowe would all still be there for them.

Xman
02-08-2007, 03:43 PM
Silver Oak - I like your handle - reminds me of good times . . . what I can remember of them anyway :)

yeah - a NE trade could be a win-win for both teams

at 24 we could get a good CB and a safety/OLB at 28/39 (could scramble the order) - that would be a huge boost to our D.

(I know we need OL/QB/RB/DL also - but as of now value in that range seems to be on D, especially secondary)

bah007
02-08-2007, 03:56 PM
Good post and I like the way we're all thinking about extra picks.

This NE one intrigues me as they could really use a top WR and with our eighth pick, Jarrett, Ginn, or Bowe would all still be there for them.

That sure would be sweet.

But it's just no New England's MO to do something like that. Plus, they were almost in the Super Bowl so they obviously dont need a superstar, they're just gonna draft for depth like they always do.

canadiantexan
02-08-2007, 07:07 PM
But, if we did deal, here are some intriguing trade options based on the draft pick value chart:
NE gives picks 24 and 28 for pick 8.
NYJ gives 25, 37 and 89 for pick 8.
GB or Jax could give their first and third (16/17 and 46/47)for pick 8.
Buff or St.L could give their first and third (12/13 and 76/77)for pick 8.
Hou could give first 3 picks (8, 39, 73) for pick 3 (Cleve or TB).
Hou could give first 2 picks (8, 39) for pick 4 (Cleve or TB).
Hou could give 39 to Denver for 56 and 88.
Hou could give 8 to Denver for 21, 56, and 70.

Of all the options I like the trade and pick up Packers 1st and 2nd rounders. Could pick up three starters in the first 2 rounds something like.
1) Lynch
2a)Merriweather
2b) Joe Staley or Kalil or Rufus Alexander or Houston or just BPA

awtysst
02-08-2007, 07:34 PM
1.NE gives picks 24 and 28 for pick 8.
2.NYJ gives 25, 37 and 89 for pick 8.
3.GB or Jax could give their first and second (16/17 and 46/47)for pick 8.
4.Buff or St.L could give their first and third (12/13 and 76/77)for pick 8.
5.Hou could give first 3 picks (8, 39, 73) for pick 3 (Cleve or TB).
6.Hou could give first 2 picks (8, 39) for pick 4 (Cleve or TB).
7.Hou could give 39 to Denver for 56 and 88.
8.Hou could give 8 to Denver for 21, 56, and 70.

1. I would want the NE 2 firsts and their second. In essence a 24 and 24 are like early 2nd rounders and thier 2nd rounder is like an early 3rd rounder.

2. I prefer the NE trade, but this gets us more picks. Provided we use them well.

3. I like this trade and would make it.

4. Not as nice as getting a 1st and second

5. No. We are not in position to be trading draft picks.

6. See 5

7. Nah

8. This is intriguing. Giving up a first for a first, extra second, and extra 3rd. If made, we have 1 first, 2 second, and 2 third. I like it.

awtysst
02-08-2007, 07:36 PM
That sure would be sweet.

But it's just no New England's MO to do something like that. Plus, they were almost in the Super Bowl so they obviously dont need a superstar, they're just gonna draft for depth like they always do.


Very likely Asante Samuel leaves. Brushi also looks to be on the way out and who knows if Seau will return. I see NE going CB, LB and they can stay put and do that.

Clash_Fan3605
02-08-2007, 07:44 PM
Does anyone thinks its possible we trade our 3rd rounder and next years 2nd round pick for a extra 2nd round pick this year. I agree with you YoungTexansFan, there is a slew of 2nd rounders I would want.

1. Merriweather
2. Ugoh
3. Hughes
4. Everett

Really I want our 1st rounder to be on the O side, and the 2nds to be D. IMO our D could really be solid next year.

beerlover
02-08-2007, 08:22 PM
if there is plenty of prospects for beerlover to choose from throughout all the rounds I'm sure the Texans will have no problem finding enough talent to go around without trading away picks. I posted this on another thread but I really like this one -

1st - Levi Brown, OT
2nd - Chris Houston, CB
3rd - David Irons, RB
4th - Kevin Kolb, QB
5th - David Ball, WR
6th - Drew Mormino, C (played with Joe Staley, Central Michigan)
7th - Rory Johnson, OLB (played with Patrick Willis, Mississippi)

NEROtheZERO
02-08-2007, 08:56 PM
Kenny Irons is a RB.
David Irons is a DB.

Tx'nFanLostInSkinCountry
02-08-2007, 09:01 PM
Does anyone thinks its possible we trade our 3rd rounder and next years 2nd round pick for a extra 2nd round pick this year. I agree with you YoungTexansFan, there is a slew of 2nd rounders I would want.

1. Merriweather
2. Ugoh
3. Hughes
4. Everett

Really I want our 1st rounder to be on the O side, and the 2nds to be D. IMO our D could really be solid next year.

No way we trade next years picks, this year is a Def. top heavy draft while next year will be LOADED with Off. players at least three to four of the top rated QB's are coming out next year as well a five or six O-lineman(barring injuries) If a team plays it right build Def. this year look for Off. 2008

Silver Oak
02-08-2007, 09:09 PM
if there is plenty of prospects for beerlover to choose from throughout all the rounds I'm sure the Texans will have no problem finding enough talent to go around without trading away picks. I posted this on another thread but I really like this one -

1st - Levi Brown, OT
2nd - Chris Houston, CB
3rd - David Irons, RB
4th - Kevin Kolb, QB
5th - David Ball, WR
6th - Drew Mormino, C (played with Joe Staley, Central Michigan)
7th - Rory Johnson, OLB (played with Patrick Willis, Mississippi)

Are you satisfied with our DL, or do you just see more pressing needs elsewhere? I see it as a top priority either through FA or the draft.

Scooter
02-08-2007, 10:02 PM
Does anyone thinks its possible we trade our 3rd rounder and next years 2nd round pick for a extra 2nd round pick this year. I agree with you YoungTexansFan, there is a slew of 2nd rounders I would want.

i cant think of a situation where i'd voluntarily give up draft picks. the draft is always a crap shoot and the only way to increase your odds is to have more picks. that's why the denver scenario looks best to me. i dont like dropping back that far, but we'd accumulate 5 first day picks ... deffinately a scenario i could sink my teeth into. especially after kubiak's result last year in the middle rounds. while our chances of landing immediate starters will drop a little, we add sorely needed depth for cheap and increase our chances of finding gems.

beerlover
02-08-2007, 10:33 PM
Are you satisfied with our DL, or do you just see more pressing needs elsewhere? I see it as a top priority either through FA or the draft.

experienced free agent/NFL Europe big nasties, Smith has already proved capable of filling some big holes with Anthony Maddox, Thomas Johnson & Earl Cochran. with Mario another year experienced, speed off the edge in Peek/Babin & healthy Travis Johnson/Seth Payne the Texans actually have a surplus on the defensive line now :bowser:

Scooter
02-08-2007, 10:45 PM
experienced free agent/NFL Europe big nasties, Smith has already proved capable of filling some big holes with Anthony Maddox, Thomas Johnson & Earl Cochran. with Mario another year experienced, speed off the edge in Peek/Babin & healthy Travis Johnson/Seth Payne the Texans actually have a surplus on the defensive line now :bowser:

agreed. we put more than 6 defensive tackles on IR last year, if healthy we should be ATLEAST adequate. if babin goes into the season as the starter, we're fine at the ends with ND Kalu as a decent backup. a little depth on the ends would be nice as i'm assuming peek wont be back, but it isnt a priority.

beerlover
02-08-2007, 11:17 PM
I beleive it would be a good idea to talk with Peek about returning. it seems to me at least there is still some untapped potential that because of injury/scheme whatever has never been realized. while we are & should always be looking around to improve positional players its easy to overlook what you already have and take them for granted. besides Peeks own shortcommings its also on Richard Smith to work with him & develop those talents that seem so clear at times. I'm sure Kubiak is almost finished evaluating Peek & the rest of the would be Texans free agents, hope it is determined that he will remain with the team :bubble:

Scooter
02-08-2007, 11:45 PM
i like peek. he's a high motor guy with decent skills and is impossibly fast off the line. IMO he's just not talented enough and doesnt have the size or instinct to play end. if he played more with his head than his feet, there's a lot of potential, but the strength issue is still there.

i also think he'd rather test the market because he'd still be a backup on a team without a winning record if not.

BattleRedToro
02-09-2007, 12:11 AM
I for one am not complacent with our D-Line. Sure we had plenty of DT play for us last year, but most of those were really 3-position DT's. That means their natural position is to line up over the Right Guard's right shoulder. We only need 2-3 of these guys on our active roster. What we need and don't have are 1-position DT's also known as NT's. They usually line up over the Center's left shoulder and tend to be more massive. They are the key to plugging the middle of the line and stuffing the run. On pass plays they take on multiple lineman to free up other linemen or blitzing linebackers to rush the QB. In addition to this glaring need, we could also stand to improve at the DE position opposite of Mario Williams. Jason Babin and Antwan Peek are really just stop gap measures thrown into the DE position during the transition from the 3-4 alignment to the 4-3 alignment. Noone should be shocked to see them replaced, complaining of the wasted picks. That is what happens everytime a team makes this kind of transition.

edo783
02-09-2007, 02:13 AM
The biggest problem Peek has is between the left and right ear.

dirty steve
02-09-2007, 03:02 AM
The biggest problem Peek has is between the left and right ear.
that and staying healthy. i really started to feel midway through the year that peek might not be with the team in 2007. he had a hard time staying on the field, and when he was on there wasnt exactly the most disciplined person.

BattleRedToro
02-09-2007, 07:36 AM
The biggest problem Peek has is between the left and right ear.

No. The problem with Peek is he is totally one dimensional. All he has shown is the ability to speed rush the QB. He can't drop back in coverage, which he would need to do if he were playing as a 3-4 OLB, and due to his lack of size it is no surprise that he struggles as a 4-3 DE on run plays. So, the only thing he is useful for at this point is as a pass rush specialist.

cuppacoffee
02-09-2007, 08:00 AM
So, to get multiple 2nd rounders, we would have to do multiple trades - which I would like - but the front office has not shown the ability to do this.



Just curious, how did you come to this conclusion?

Xman
02-09-2007, 12:37 PM
Just curious, how did you come to this conclusion?

Because they have not done it.

They have done the opposite - trading away picks. But the closest they come to getting multiple picks is when they acquire future picks (which I am all for if they can do that again). But, as far as going into a draft and making multiple trades for picks - there is no reason to believe it will happen. I would LOVE to be wrong - but the truth is that most teams don't even really try (the old philosophy that they would rather play it safe by not trading than look foolish for trading).

The master of dealing was JJohnson. He didn't take the "need player" 10 picks too early - he would trade down. Then, if someone slid, he would trade back up (ESmith). But, to do something like that, you have to have had conversations with a lot of teams (if not all) prior to the draft (substantive conversations about options like "if X slides to our pick at ##, would you give X to move up, and what else can we do to help fill each other's needs" - not just "hey there we are willing to talk" conversations)

It takes manhours and talent to make it happen (one or two guys workng the phone and having someone at the top that knows enough about the talent (from the scouts) to pull the trigger on deals (guessing you have to figure you discuss 80 before you get close on 20 before you pull 1).

Xman
02-09-2007, 12:47 PM
On trading down:
I have posted this a long time ago - but I find it intriguing.

Take the value of one really high pick according to the point chart.

Pick#1= 3000 (first four picks drop 400 points a slot)
Pick 5 = 1700 (picks 6-8 drop 100 a slot)
Pick 9 = 1350 (the next ten drop 50 a slot)
and so on.

If you could do multiple deals - the Mario Pick could have been worth the first 5 picks in the 2nd round and a 3rd (or the last 5 picks in the 2nd and the first 5 picks in the 3rd).
Those 10 guys would have filled a lot of holes (better than one DE).

AND - when trading for future picks, the supposed rule is to add 1 round to their value - so you could have dealt with 5 teams and had 5 2nds last year and 5 more 2nds coming this year.

This is "everything goes right" dealing - which will not ever happen - but it would be a start to accruing talent long-term.

The Pencil Neck
02-09-2007, 04:37 PM
On trading down:
I have posted this a long time ago - but I find it intriguing.

Take the value of one really high pick according to the point chart.

Pick#1= 3000 (first four picks drop 400 points a slot)
Pick 5 = 1700 (picks 6-8 drop 100 a slot)
Pick 9 = 1350 (the next ten drop 50 a slot)
and so on.

If you could do multiple deals - the Mario Pick could have been worth the first 5 picks in the 2nd round and a 3rd (or the last 5 picks in the 2nd and the first 5 picks in the 3rd).
Those 10 guys would have filled a lot of holes (better than one DE).

AND - when trading for future picks, the supposed rule is to add 1 round to their value - so you could have dealt with 5 teams and had 5 2nds last year and 5 more 2nds coming this year.

This is "everything goes right" dealing - which will not ever happen - but it would be a start to accruing talent long-term.

That's basically one of those paper, ivory tower sorts of things.

Sure, mathematically it all adds up but think about what you're asking from a practical standpoint. You're asking to make at least a 7 team deal and conceptually, you're wanting to subdivide that first pick among 6 other teams. Which one of those other teams gets the 1st pick? A lot of other things would have to be traded around between those other teams.

That's just way too complicated to be reasonable.

Xman
02-10-2007, 09:38 AM
That's basically one of those paper, ivory tower sorts of things.

Sure, mathematically it all adds up but think about what you're asking from a practical standpoint. You're asking to make at least a 7 team deal and conceptually, you're wanting to subdivide that first pick among 6 other teams. Which one of those other teams gets the 1st pick? A lot of other things would have to be traded around between those other teams.

That's just way too complicated to be reasonable.

I agree.
But, doing a fourth of it would have helped.
In other words, maybe they can't turn #8 into four 2nd round picks, but any of the trade down deals listed (and many others could be worked out) would bring in more talent than 1 guy. Then, maybe another deal could be done after that - even if it means taking pcks next year (which most teams will part with quicker if they really need help (AZ/GB) and think they are close (Balt/NO/Philly)).
Plus, we can draft at almost any spot in the draft and pick BPA - because we need players at almost every position(even WR would be something we could consider in the 2nd round if someone ranked much higher slid).

If trades were done for future 2nds and 3rds (which means giving up 3rd and 4th round value now), then we could stockpile talent over the next few years. Mix in a few trade downs to add extra 2nds and 3rds (to cover the value we give up and to get a few more guys now) and we round out our holes - with the knowledge that we have extra help coming at cheap rates within two years. New England got lucky with Brady only being a 6th round pick, but they also had an influx of 2nd and 3rd round picks from trades before they went on their run. If we could get lucky and find a QB, then put a bunch of 2nd/3rd round guys out there (talented but cheap capwise), it could really help us.

bigbrewster2000
02-10-2007, 10:15 AM
I like Merriweather. But you're forgetting about Daymeion Hughes, Ryan Smith and David Irons. Absolute playmakers at the CB position. I believe Drew Hodgdon can step up and be a solid backup to McKinney at center. He has the potential and work ethic to eventually take over there. I would take either of the 3 corners I just mentioned over Cedric Houston...you're kidding, right?

He was talking about Chris Houston not Cedric Houston.

bigbrewster2000
02-10-2007, 10:20 AM
if there is plenty of prospects for beerlover to choose from throughout all the rounds I'm sure the Texans will have no problem finding enough talent to go around without trading away picks. I posted this on another thread but I really like this one -

1st - Levi Brown, OT
2nd - Chris Houston, CB
3rd - David Irons, RB
4th - Kevin Kolb, QB
5th - David Ball, WR
6th - Drew Mormino, C (played with Joe Staley, Central Michigan)
7th - Rory Johnson, OLB (played with Patrick Willis, Mississippi)

As far as your first 4 picks are concerned the only one I like is Houston in the 2nd. I think Levi Brown is a reach at 8 and I would not take him there. David Irons is the CB Kenny is the RB and both will likely be gone in the 3rd. Same goes for Kolb in the 4th but if they fell that way I would take them. I don't know enough about the late rounders to comment, but I would rather see a DE or DT prospect taken somewhere in this draft.

beerlover
02-10-2007, 11:20 AM
As far as your first 4 picks are concerned the only one I like is Houston in the 2nd. I think Levi Brown is a reach at 8 and I would not take him there. David Irons is the CB Kenny is the RB and both will likely be gone in the 3rd. Same goes for Kolb in the 4th but if they fell that way I would take them. I don't know enough about the late rounders to comment, but I would rather see a DE or DT prospect taken somewhere in this draft.

Meant to say Kenny Irons bigbrewster, I like David too.....if you think taking Levi @ #8 is too high, I've got a news flash for you - "there is high demand in the NFL for starting LT's" :phone: lots of time still left before the draft so anything can happen. for instance, I'm not saying this is the case but what if Doctors for various teams check out Joe Thomas knee & have some concerns & think he may need additional surgery & his time table for recovery is longer than expected? the top 5 teams all could use a LT, Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa & Arizona. these teams have all been linked to Joe Thomas in one way or another, reports like this could change the top of the draft significantly. what also might change the top of the draft is that Levi Brown blows the scouts away @ the combine. He is faster/stronger than expected, great measureables, kills the wonderlick & knocks people out in interview sessions.... :thud: heck the Texans won't even get a chance to draft Brown a top 5 team "will reach" even ahead of the quote "higher rated prospect" to draft him instead.......Joe Thomas anyone :shades:

my point is you just never know these things. assinging grades, ratings whatever the bottom line is finding the best fit for your team with whats available. Levi embodies high character, huge measureables, talent, experience, great coaching works hard & would anchor the Texans line for the next decade :bubble:




1st - Levi Brown, OT
2nd - Chris Houston, CB
3rd - David Irons, RB
4th - Kevin Kolb, QB
5th - David Ball, WR
6th - Drew Mormino, C (played with Joe Staley, Central Michigan)
7th - Rory Johnson, OLB (played with Patrick Willis, Mississippi)

threetoedpete
02-10-2007, 12:36 PM
Yeah what he said. :thumbup

Look there's not that much difference in Joe Thomas and Levi Brown. One is a five stars guy the other a four stars guy. How many times in our history have we had a shot at a four star OT ? He equals the same value as Marcus McNeil and Jamal Brown did a couple of drafts ago. What should be blatantly obvious at this point in our history is that these guys do not grow on trees. Running back however...even of all days caliber are always on the board. Every year...

Do the "if" game in free agency and "hope" that with an additional gaurd or the uncertain status of Charles Spencer will solidify, that you're going to improve enough this off season that the QB, no matter who he is, will not be the annual judas goat and take another forty plus sacks again in '07. Why not fix it once and for all ? Gonna have to fix it sooner or later. Would I love to have all day ? If I thought that all day alone would get it done...you bet. The line has to get fixed. The line has been at critical mass for a couple of seasons now. Picking the big uglies early is not pretty but it works.