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DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 10:56 AM
OK well Washington lost last night, ending the season at 5-11

If we win today, I think our lowest possible draft position is 7th. To get 7th, Minnesota has to beat St Louis at home (very possible) and San Francisco has to beat Denver on the road (very unlikely). To summarize, if we win:

Minn win, SF win - 7th
Minn win, SF loss - 8th
Minn loss, SF loss - 9th

If we lose today, aside from having a total organizational meltdown, we'll be affected by (a) Tampa Bay's outcome at home vs Seattle , (b) Arizona's outcome at San Diego, and (c) our relative SOS with Washington. So let's summarize the possibilities, if the Texans lose today:

TB loss, AZ loss: 5th or 6th (depending on relative SOS with Washington)
TB win, AZ loss: 4th or 5th
TB win, AZ win : 3rd or 4th


Notwithstanding what I posted elsewhere, it does appear mathematically possible for us to draft 6th. I stand corrected. That being said, I'll be an optimist today and predict that we'll beat the Browns. My gut tells me that SF will lose to a Denver team that is trying to reach the playoffs, and Minnesota will win at home against the Rams. That puts us in the 8th draft position.


7:30 PM edit - of course the one scenario I forgot to mention up top was Minn loss/SF win. Which is what happened . So much for all of this thinking -

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 12:25 PM
It would be nigh-on impossible to get ahead of Arizona or Minnesota in SOS.

If we win, that locks Detroit and Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Washington ahead of us. Next pick would be #6 and probably goes to Arizona. We would want Minny to win to move out of the #7 pick.

San Fran does have a two game SOS lead on us, but they'd be pulling for mostly underdogs while we'd be pulling for favorites. So even if San Fran loses to Denver, we could still overtake them for #8 (#7 if Minny won)

We're guaranteed to finish ahead of Miami in SOS.

If we lose, Detroit and Oakland are locked in ahead of us. Next pick would be #3 and would almost certainly go to Arizona UNLESS they win - which is unlikely against SD. Tampa Bay can not get above Houston or Washington and would be hard pressed to get above Cleveland, so in this scenario they project at #7 if they win.

Picks #4-6 would be an all out SOS struggle between Washington, Houston and Cleveland. As luck would have it, Washington and Houston have EXACTLY the same possible SOS range, though we have slightly more favorites that we would like to see win. Cleveland is trailing both teams by two games and would get locked at #6 with EITHER a KC win over Jax OR a Baltimore win over Buffalo. Remember what I said about us liking favorites? Remember how Baltimore clinches a 1st-round bye with a win? :shades:

Please note: All draft positions are relative to the Texans position. So when I say Arizona at the #6 pick, all I mean is AZ is one of 6 teams that will finish ahead of the Texans. I'm not necessarily saying they finish #6 vs, say #3.

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 01:01 PM
Including last night's game, our SOS is .512397 and Washington's is .516529. We both played the Giants during the season but it counts double for Washington as they played the Giants twice.

If everything goes our way (from a SOS perspective), the "lowest" we can have is .496094 and the "highest" we can have is .521236. Key to the "lowest" are losses by Indy, Jax and Tenn. If we beat Cleveland, the "highest" we can have is .517375

More later, I'll track this as the games develop today

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 02:36 PM
oops wrong board

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 03:56 PM
6 teams have 5-wins or fewer with no capacity to hit 6.

6 win teams:

Minnesota
Arizona (if they win)
Houston
San Fran (still to play)
Miami (still to play)

Miami can not beat Houston in SOS, so the Texans have #9 locked. It is unlikely (I'll determine shortly if its even possible) to get ahead of Minny or Arizona, so we are in a throw down with SF for pick #8 at the moment.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 04:08 PM
EVERY early game has currently got the scoreboard our way SOS wise!

The only game we don't care about (Cin/Pit) is tied :)

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 04:11 PM
Hey if Pitt wins, the Titans hopes are still alive.

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 04:24 PM
Sarg is right, all of the noon games are going our way from an SOS perspective. I'll have a fulll update upon conclusion of the Titans game

threetoedpete
12-31-2006, 04:28 PM
Crazy Al has the first. That will be a hoot.

Honoring Earl 34
12-31-2006, 04:30 PM
That makes all juniors reconsider .

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 04:40 PM
After the early games, here's the SOS ranges:

Texmax = highest possible without also affecting Houston's SOS.

Minnesota: 124 min, 127 Texmax
Arizona: 126 min, 128 Texmax
San Fran: 126 min, 129 Texmax
Houston: 127 min, 129 max!!!

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 04:40 PM
OK here is where we standing entering the afternoon games:

The Texans opponents have a collective record of 126-125. Remaining games include:

Philly (home vs Atl)
Indy (home vs Miami, and worth 2 games)
Buffalo (at Baltimore)
Miami (at Indianapolis)

The Indy- Miami game is NOT a wash, as we played Indy twice. Going with the favorites in these games projects out to 129-127

The 49ers opponents have a collective record of 125-124. Remaining games include:

Arizona (at San Diego, and worth 2 games)
Philly (home vs Atlanta)
SD (home vs AZ)
Chicago( home tonight vs. GB)
GB (at Chicago)
Denver (home vs SF)

As GB and Chicago are each worth one game, that's a win and a loss and move the overall record to 126-125. Also means we don't have to wait on tonight's game to learn the outcome

Going with the favorites projects out to 129-127. A dead heat

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 04:50 PM
To get ahead of San Fran for #8 we need:

EITHER San Fran over Denver
OR any 2 of these 3:
Miami over Indy
Arizona over San Diego
Baltimore over Buffalo


To get ahead of Arizona for #7 we need:

Arizona MUST defeat San Diego
AND
Atlanta MUST defeat Philly
AND any 1 of 3
Miami defeats Indy OR
Baltimore defeats Buffalo OR
San Fran defeats Denver

To get ahead of Minnesota for #6 we need:
ALL OF:
Arizona over San Diego
Atlanta defeats Philly
San Fran over Denver
Miami over Indy
AND win coin flip

It is not possible to finish ahead of Minny without finishing ahead of the other two teams.

stingray
12-31-2006, 04:52 PM
To get ahead of San Fran for #8 we need:

EITHER San Fran over Denver
OR any 2 of these 3:
Miami over Indy
Arizona over San Diego
Baltimore over Buffalo


To get ahead of Arizona for #7 we need:

Arizona MUST defeat San Diego
AND
Atlanta MUST defeat Philly
AND any 1 of 3
Miami defeats Indy OR
Baltimore defeats Buffalo OR
San Fran defeats Denver

OK, that cleared it up...

Texian
12-31-2006, 04:57 PM
Who Knows? ...Detroit beat Dallass!

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 04:59 PM
As further complication, I mistakenly assumed we could not "catch up" to AZ in an SOS comparison were AZ to beat SD this afternoon, and also finish 6-10

well as of the end of the noon games, AZ's opponents are 124-125. Remaining games include:

Atlanta (at Philly)
Chicago (home vs GB)
GB (at Chicago)
Denver (home vs SF)
SF (at Denver, worth 2 games)
AZ (at SD)

Adding the Chicago/GB win/loss makes it 125-126. Going with the favorites projects to 128-128

Of course if AZ loses to SD, the rest of this is irrelevant. But is AZ wins it could get very interesting. Especially as for it to matter, AZ would have to beat SD and thus that combined with all of the other favorites winning projects to 129-127

Minnesota analysis to come

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 05:02 PM
Great and fast work Sarg! As an intersting side note, besides helping our SOS, if Miami and/or SF were to win and become 7-game winners, we would not have to flip flop with them on the selections in the later rounds of the draft. The fewer 6-game winers we share with, the less deep we have to flip in the later rounds.

My figures basically agree with yours. We are hurting against ARZ and MIN SOS's. MIA is history and will pick after us (1st round) regardless of win/loss. We have a fighting chance against the 49ers SOS. MIA, BAL wins saves our SOS by 1 each. ARZ raises theirs by 1. PHI/ATL game has the same outcome for us both, 1 point either way. Nothing else matters vs. SF.

Given all of the above, and the likely outcomes of the games underway, we will likely be tied with SF for the 8th draft position. I don't believe there is any tie breaker left except a coin flip. If someone knows different, please advise.

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 05:34 PM
Great and fast work Sarg!

What??? No kudos for me as well?

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 05:45 PM
Minnesota is 122-126 going into the afternoon games. Give them 2 wins and 2 losses for the GB-Chi game, makes them 124-128. Teams still playing include

Buffalo
SF
Miami
AZ

so if the favorites win out, that puts them at 124-132. I don't have a computer to run all of the scenarios but I think it's highly unlikely that we move ahead of Minnesota in the draft.

While finishing up the games this afternoon, pull for Miami, SF and Arizona. Unfortunately I think they are all losing right now-

TexanSam
12-31-2006, 05:48 PM
I'm so confused after reading all the scenarios so I'll just wait until the day is done. Regardless, I think with our win today we're out of the running for Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. The elite of this draft.

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 05:56 PM
Kudos 2u2 DenvBorn. Houston vs. Minn SOS, the worst Minn can right as of now is 1 more SOS win than we're minimally destined to have. If all the games went our way, we might beat or tie them, but in all likelyhood all of the games that count against Min. will go against us.

We have to hope for a tie for 8th place with SF and a win of the coin flip.

threetoedpete
12-31-2006, 06:02 PM
I'm so confused after reading all the scenarios so I'll just wait until the day is done. Regardless, I think with our win today we're out of the running for Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. The elite of this draft.

Me too TS. I think I got three hours worth of wait in me. Nice work though guys. I don't like keeping up with the capoligy stuff also. Glad some folks do.

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 06:08 PM
OK as the games are developing, absent some major comeback it really boils down to the Buffalo - Baltimore game

If Buffalo wins, we draft at 9

If Baltimore wins, we flip a coin with SF for the 8th slot

Edit: SF has now taken the lead, scoring 2 TDs quickly. If SF wins, obviously we draft 8th

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 06:28 PM
OK as the games are developing, absent some major comeback it really boils down to the Buffalo - Baltimore game

If Buffalo wins, we draft at 9

If Baltimore wins, we flip a coin with SF for the 8th slot

Edit: SF has now taken the lead, scoring 2 TDs quickly. If SF wins, obviously we draft 8th

I'm still holding out hope for Miami over Indy, which could prevent a coin flip if Baltimore holds their 2-possession lead.

gwallaia
12-31-2006, 06:36 PM
I'm just glad we're not picking 1st.

Maddict5
12-31-2006, 06:38 PM
I'm so confused after reading all the scenarios so I'll just wait until the day is done. Regardless, I think with our win today we're out of the running for Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. The elite of this draft.

LOl yeah we can wait 2 hrs and we'll just know then...dont kill yourself with all these calculations

edit: ok i just made the exact same post as 3toe

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 06:39 PM
LOl yeah we can wait 2 hrs and we'll just know then...dont kill yourself with all these calculations

Frankly I enjoy figuring it out for my own purposes-

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 06:43 PM
WHOA! All the games just moved in our favor at once.

Arizona scored and is now in the red zone again ...
Atlanta tied it up ...
Miami narrowed it to one score ...
San Fran made their 3rd and 23 conversion and entered the 4th quarter with a 1 point lead and the ball.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:11 PM
Arizona just lost. That locks us down to #8 or #9.

San Fran is leading with 9:30 left, which would give us the 8.
Miami over Indy would do the same, Indy up by 5, 3:00 left.

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 07:14 PM
and with the Buffalo loss, I think worse case is a coin flip, correct?

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:19 PM
and with the Buffalo loss, I think worse case is a coin flip, correct?

Yes, I believe so. Come on Cleo Lemon :)

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:23 PM
And Cleo falls short. It's on San Fran now. They've got to hold this lead.

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:28 PM
Houston end with SOS 129 wins. SF will have 129 wins if they lose. SF, WIN WIN WIN!

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:29 PM
Broncos w/ TD awaiting extra point for tie w/ SF.

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:30 PM
Extra point squeaks by, 23-23. 1:30 left for SF, they have 1 TO.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:30 PM
I don't want to wait for a coin flip to know if it's #8 or #9. Alex Smith, you need to make something happen!

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:33 PM
Just get in FG range!

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:34 PM
Looks like OT's comin'.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:35 PM
Heh, as much as this is annoying us, imagine what its doing to KC fans?

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:36 PM
SF loses the flip and will kickoff.

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:38 PM
If the game ends in a tie, SF would be 6-9-1, which is better than Houston, so we would pick before them, correct?

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:40 PM
If the game ends in a tie, SF would be 6-9-1, which is better than Houston, so we would pick before them, correct?

Yes. But ties are nearly impossible.

mexican_texan
12-31-2006, 07:41 PM
Yes. But ties are nearly impossible.
Especially with Jay Cutler

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:43 PM
Darn good game, though!

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:43 PM
SF with the ball now on their own 11.

BattleRedToro
12-31-2006, 07:46 PM
lol: mexican texan, that is your best avatar ever.

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:48 PM
I never realized how much I rely on that yellow 1st down marker line until now.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:50 PM
I don't get why they went for a long pass on 3rd and 4 so close to FG range!

mexican_texan
12-31-2006, 07:51 PM
I never realized how much I rely on that yellow 1st down marker line until now.
Wow...quite an audience in this here thread.

Niners just won't give up will they? Just like last year.

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:53 PM
I don't get why they went for a long pass on 3rd and 4 so close to FG range!

Sarg, I agree with you, especially when Gore was jammin' it through thier line. And why go for a 20 yard miscue when a simple 6 yard slant would p/u the 1st down.

mexican_texan
12-31-2006, 07:53 PM
Run down the clock!

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:57 PM
Just run the ball and get in FG range. Meanwhile, milk the clock.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 07:58 PM
Did Alex Smith just block John Lynch?!?

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 07:58 PM
I'd rather see Denver in the playoffs than KC, so I'm secondarily rooting for the tie.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 08:02 PM
And with the 8th pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select ...


?????

CharloTex
12-31-2006, 08:02 PM
We pick 8th.

TexansSeminole
12-31-2006, 08:04 PM
So what does this mean for our draft position.

Sarg01
12-31-2006, 08:06 PM
#1 Oakland - WR Calvin Johnson
#2 Detroit - QB Brady Quinn
#3 Cleveland - RB Adrian Peterson
#4 Tampa Bay - OT Joe Thomas
#5 - #6 Washington, Arizona - DE Gaines Adams, CB Leon Hall
#7 Minnesota - CB Darelle Revis
#8 Houston - DT Alan Branch
#9 Miami - DE Adam Carriker

mexican_texan
12-31-2006, 08:13 PM
I don't think Allan Branch can score a TD like Maddox.

edo783
12-31-2006, 08:19 PM
IMO, I doubt we take a DT with the first pick. I suspect that with how our backups have played and with the first string out, the FO will sit still there and take a FS at 8, probably Landry, but it could be other. If we don't get a solid CB in FA, that would be on the table IMO.

BattleRedToro
12-31-2006, 08:22 PM
I don't care who the Texans pick as long as he helps them get better.

jaayteetx
12-31-2006, 08:22 PM
I don't think Allan Branch can score a TD like Maddox.

Branch is from the town I live in out here in New Mexico, kinda wish I would have went and seen him play some HS ball now.

DenverBorn
12-31-2006, 08:27 PM
I was actually wondering what would have happened had SF missed the FG. I think Denver would have just run out the clock - and would SF have called a timeout? I can only imagine the Chiefs watching on TV, screaming at SF to try to stop the clock, when it didn't really matter to SF (other than draft position). Frankly when Denver got the ball at 7:01 to play, it looked then like milking the clock was their primary agenda, and it totally backfired on them. Generally I like Denver better than KC but I'm not a Jay Cutler fan -

YoungTexanFan
12-31-2006, 09:16 PM
Generally I like Denver better than KC but I'm not a Jay Cutler fan -

Generally I like KC better than Denver, but I also am not a Jay Cutler fan. :)

threetoedpete
01-01-2007, 02:09 AM
IMO, I doubt we take a DT with the first pick. I suspect that with how our backups have played and with the first string out, the FO will sit still there and take a FS at 8, probably Landry, but it could be other. If we don't get a solid CB in FA, that would be on the table IMO.

Well I feel the big guy from big blue shores up more of an accute problem than a FS. But hey that's Just me. First two guys on the board aren't the only FS prospects out there. We're going to end up baring a trade up two pretty fair players. One DT guy out is on the wrong side of thirty. The other guy is on the threshold of being a bust. With Joe Thomas out of reach...that IS the major need. You fix the lines first. Then you go and get the pretty. One of these days you guys are going to figgure that out.

Just a side note to the Denver game. What does it say if the head coach determens, that his best chance to win the game is with the rookie with the mild concussion over Jake the Snake ? Inquiring minds would like to know. I think the plummer talk is only that. Talk. I'll believe it when I see it.

YoungTexanFan
01-01-2007, 02:29 AM
Well I feel the big guy from big blue shores up more of an accute problem than a FS. But hey that's Just me. First two guys on the board aren't the only FS prospects out there. We're going to end up baring a trade up two pretty fair players. One DT guy out is on the wrong side of thirty. The other guy is on the threshold of being a bust. With Joe Thomas out of reach...that IS the major need. You fix the lines first. Then you go and get the pretty. One of these days you guys are going to figgure that out.

Just a side note to the Denver game. What does it say if the head coach determens, that his best chance to win the game is with the rookie with the mild concussion over Jake the Snake ? Inquiring minds would like to know. I think the plummer talk is only that. Talk. I'll believe it when I see it.

It means that Jake Plummer is no better than an overhyped, below average rookie QB who cost his team the playoffs and is well on his way to mediocrecy.