View Full Version : 1st Round Scenarios

12-18-2006, 01:17 AM
By Brad Lorkovic (LORK 88)
Why It Could Work: David Carr started off decent, but has been anything but that as of late. He’s been inconsistent, constantly rattled, and he forces throws into coverage. While there could be multiple reasons why he’s been so rattled as of late (O Line problems, no RB to count on, new to the system, etc), most feel that he’s had his time and needs competition or to be replaced. This year isn’t a bad year for QB prospects as well. QBs such as Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Brian Brohm, and Troy Smith could all be available for the taking. If we want to draft an immediate and potentially star QB, we could have a choice in the 1st without having to trade up and waste picks. There are a good number of 1st round picks at QB that could be very helpful to our team next year and in the future. Kubiak being a former QB coach is too valuable of an opportunity to pass up, and it could be a great idea to let him have his choice of who he want to groom as the heir to the position.

Why It Couldn’t Work: Admitting Carr is done and has no future here is admitting we made a mistake in 2002 and an even bigger mistake in 2006 by passing up Vince Young. Fans would be outraged that we passed up a player like him who feel that he was Cinderella and Houston was the glass slipper that fitted perfectly. Bob McNair also signed Carr to the biggest option in his contract available, which could be yet another big cap hit to add to the list. Also, a lot of Carr’s future depends on what Kubiak feels of Carr and he will ultimately have the say of if he stays or goes. Carr did start off the season well and has regressed as his O Line has, so he could feel that Carr can still accomplish what we need if he gets some help around him. Drafting a QB and having to groom him and wait on him would also be putting this team further into rebuild mode while pretty much everyone wants to win immediately. We also have a great deal of other needs, so it a lot of it depends on FA and what we feel are the bigger needs.

Why It Could Work: To be honest, we have no real star at RB who can be consistent and counted on game after game. Lundy has been decent, but lacks the consistency. Dayne has been good as of late, but conditioning is a big question as is his big run ability. Gado has great physical aspects, but has very little vision. Overall, we have nothing special at RB and a back like Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch could be a great help to our team and our offense. Peterson is considered by some to be the best RB prospect to come out since LT did in 2001 and has shown nothing but potential thus far. The Zone Blocking Scheme which Kubiak took with him from Denver could make a RB like Peterson even more dominant at the next level. There’s no telling what a powerful and consistent running game could do to our offense.

Why It Couldn’t Work: Aside from Peterson having injury problems every year he was at Oklahoma, the Zone Blocking System isn’t one that requires a stud at RB. There also is the assumption that Kubiak and the Denver system doesn’t need a top tier RB like Peterson or Lynch and can be sustainable on someone less talented. One advantage to it is that if it’s implemented properly, it can make good RBs look great. Because of that assumption, Kubiak could deem it more beneficial to draft a RB later on in the draft. He also could decide to look more so to free agency to find his RB with it being filled with good RBs this year.

Why It Could Work: It’s simple: David Carr has been killed every year he’s been an NFL QB and our O Line has been a joke. Throughout our existence, lots of fans have begged and pleaded that we draft a franchise LT that can anchor our O Line and hopefully change it for the better. However, we’ve done everything but that. We’ve tried signing decent FA talent, drafting small school prospects, and moving people around, but nothing has worked as well as it should’ve. To top it off, we’ve passed on some solid talent at OT and even passed on trading for a top OT, but this year has Joe Thomas, who’s being called an elite OT prospect. The good thing about Thomas is that he’s a balanced blocker, and can block just as well in the running game as he can in pass pro. He’s also massive, but can move well in space and is very agile. Regardless of our QB situation, a great OT could never hurt and would help our offense out greatly.

Why It Couldn’t Work: First off, Joe Thomas might not even be around by the time we pick, as teams like Arizona could be more anxious and desperate to take Thomas. Second, drafting OTs in the draft the past few years has been a very questionable decision and one of the biggest gambles in the draft. While scouts feel Thomas is a real talent, the same was said about players like Robert Gallery and Mike Williams. Also, because we run the ZBS, we could draft an OT later in the draft and be fine. The ZBS doesn’t require top O Linemen to run it properly, but relies more on linemen who are athletic enough to get to their blocks and give the RB the choice of where they want to run. Also, we did a great job drafting Charles Spencer last year in the draft as well so we might not even need an LT early like Thomas and could rely more on finding hidden talent like a team like Denver has done. You also could argue that Houston has talent along the O Line; it just needs to return from injury and needs time to gel.

Why It Could Work: Lets face it, what could’ve been considered one of our deepest positions at the end of the 2005 season is now one of our weakest. Seth Payne is likely gone for the rest of his career, we cut Robaire Smith to save cap room, and Travis Johnson isn’t doing much and now has to recover from a season ending injury. Basically we need some help and a player like Alan Branch could help us out greatly. He’s massive, athletic, and strong. There’s no telling what a big man like him in the middle could do to our other D Line players. It would greatly help out Mario, Weaver, and everyone else if there was a presence in the middle that commanded multiple blockers. It could free up our rushers and would greatly help us out versus the run (something we’ve historically struggled against). In short, he could cause havoc at the point of attack which is something that we’ve always lacked.

Why It Couldn’t Work: Do we really need to spend even MORE money on our D Line? We’ve already got Mario’s monster contract of around $60 million, Weaver signed for about $26.5 million this off season, and TJ still has his first round contract worth a good amount. If we took a DT at around picks 4 – 8, it would easily mean we’d be paying anywhere from $20 million to $15 million in guaranteed money (assuming rookie contracts go up around 10 – 15% percent at each draft pick position). We’ve also had our backups come in and play very well, proving to be valuable depth. DT is also a very hit or miss position in the draft, so it may be wiser to draft someone later on who could add to the rotation rather than do it all.

Why It Could Work: No offense to Kailee Wong or Shantee Orr, but they are not the answer at SLB. Wong is aging and doesn’t appear to be the same that he was after his serious knee injury, and Orr seems to me that he’s more of a 3-4 OLB. They seem to both lack the athletic ability to be able to play the run as well as the pass. While many speculate that Charlie Anderson could be the eventual starter at some point in time, why should we take that chance when we can get a talent like Patrick Willis? He’s got great size and speed, and won the Dick Butkus Award which is given to the nation’s top LB. His tenacity would help out our defense and he would be an amazing LB to play along with DeMeco. Adding another playmaker like him to play alongside Ryans would be very beneficiary and definitely make our defense better as a unit.

Why It Couldn’t Work: To be honest, there is nobody worthy of a pick where we’re going to be at. Willis is good as are the other OLB prospects, but they are better fitted to be picked around picks 10 – 20, and if we’ve learned anything from drafts in the past it’s that we shouldn’t reach for needs. If we really feel its necessary, we could always look later on in the draft as there are some talented players who should slip (Rufus Alexander, Earl Everett). We could also give Anderson a chance or find someone in FA who fills in for the time being. It’s also not one of our biggest needs, so therefore it shouldn’t garner that much attention.

Why It Could Work: Our secondary is horrible. Petey Faggins is better served as a nickel CB, and Dunta Robinson hasn’t had a great season since he had a CB opposite him that he could trust and rely on (Aaron Glenn). With Peyton Manning in our division, CB is definitely a position that is highly regarded. This season we have forced the 5th worst amount of INTs so far, and struggle with forcing turnovers all together. A CB like Antoine Cason or Leon Hall could easily change that for us. Both are great at playing the ball when it’s in the air and are defensive playmakers. They’ve been tested against top talent and would be a great asset in our secondary. They would definitely help out our defense in a division where pass defense is greatly needed.

Why It Couldn’t Work: A lot of it depends on which CBs declare for the draft this year, but the verdict is still out if Hall is worth a top 10 pick. He’s definitely got the talent, but we could just as easily find a CB in free agency that could help us out and has proven himself already. CB is a position that requires a significant learning curve and the real question is do we feel like waiting for talent to develop or do we want someone who can be an immediate help. There also is the belief that the best pass defense is a great pass rush. If that’s the case, we could hold on to Faggins and put more emphasis on getting to the QB than fixing our secondary.

Why It Could Work: One of our biggest problems in the secondary has been finding consistency and preventing the deep pass. Our problem is that our FS CC Brown is better suited to be a SS. If that is a route we want to travel, we could switch him to SS and draft a FS like LaRon Landry. He is the definition of consistency and is a true ball hawk. Having started since a freshman for LSU, he’s been very productive. He could greatly help out our pass defense and would help out with our INT problem. A playmaker in the secondary would be greatly welcomed, especially knowing that we wouldn’t have to worry too much about giving up back to back 70 yard passes.

Why It Couldn’t Work: Do we really need to spend a first round pick on a FS? There is talent beyond the first round and top FS talent can be found later on in the draft. Bryan Dawkins, Mike Minter, Darren Sharper, and Madieu Williams were all drafted in the second round of their respective drafts. Also, just like the CB conundrum, we could figure it’s more necessary to have a pass rush rather than adding a top FS in round 1. In that case, we could keep Brown at FS or add someone in free agency.

12-18-2006, 04:51 AM
OT, RB or DB in the first round. no qb is worth a top pick except quinn, but he doesn't play well vs good teams, see usc, michaigan and soon to be LSU. qb can be addressed in the later rounds.

12-18-2006, 07:59 AM
i have the texans drafting Jamarcus Russell in the first.

12-18-2006, 08:12 AM
troy smith's biggest obstacle is the Senior Bowl, both on and off the field. lots of rumors of him being extremely rehearsed to the media and being a complete jerk elsewhere, so that'll be huge for him to disspell those rumors.

12-18-2006, 08:38 AM
no way does he "destroy" florida, but they will most likely win.

trust me--his biggest issue is the character concerns. along with his height. if he's under 6'0, then forget about being drafted in the first round, i don't care what he does in the championship or at the senior bowl.

12-18-2006, 09:33 AM
I would think that in order to get him, we'd have to move up late into the first or trade down to the late first because he won't make it past Oakland or Cleveland...maybe not Detroit. I'd prefer trading down and getting extra picks, because more picks is bettah!

Not if Adrian Peterson is available for us to grab...

Cook Thom
12-18-2006, 10:12 AM
Until the Texans get at least an average offensive line we will continue to suck.
Except for the gamble we made and lost on the offensive tackle from the Jags on our original selection from other teams when the franchise was established we have always tried to get an offensive line on the cheap. After years and years of having one of the worse offensive lines in the NFL is management of this team very going to learn. We need to either draft offensive linemen early in the draft or pay some bucks for free agent linemen or be satisfied being a laughing stock.

12-18-2006, 10:26 AM
where is the check mark for- all the above?

12-18-2006, 10:31 AM
where is the check mark for- all the above?
lol dont know, i'll add it when we get our 7 1st rounders!

Anyways, I think it comes down to DB, QB, and RB as those are our biggest needs. Player wise, it comes down to Russell, Landry, and Peterson. FA will play a huge part and it will be interesting to see how we handle it and who we target. We also have to wait for the big names to officially declare like Peterson, Russell, possibly Brohm. That should narrow some positions down and after that its just reading thru the smoke.

12-18-2006, 10:46 AM
lol dont know, i'll add it when we get our 7 1st rounders

what about bpa? underclassman? Russell, Peterson, Brohm, Branch, Lynch, Johnson, Ginn, Revis, Cason & Reggie Nelson just to name a few of the blue chip prospects. deadline Jan 15th I will revisit then :shades:

12-18-2006, 10:51 AM
what about bpa? underclassman? Russell, Peterson, Brohm, Branch, Lynch, Johnson, Ginn, Revis, Cason & Reggie Nelson just to name a few of the blue chip prospects. deadline Jan 15th I will revisit then :shades:
I'll save that for later when i discuss draft tendancies and such. For now Revis, and Nelson have pretty much said theyre leaving; Brohm, Cason, and possibly Johnson are most likely staying. Everyone else is assumed to enter the draft, but could go either way.